NavigátorVilág Konferencia - 2017.november 8-9 A globális tengeri konténeres fuvarpiac tendenciái Szerző: Szatmári Éva (tengeri szállítmányozás osztályvezető – Kühne+Nagel Kft) 2017.November 8
Tartalom 1. Globális számok: GDP, logisztikai piac, olajárak, 2. A világ konténeres volumene
3. A globális hajótérkereslet és hajótérkínálat alakulása 4. Fuvardíjak változása (FEWB SCFI)
5. Hajóstársaságok profitabilitása 6. Hajóstársasági konszolidációk , menetrendek pontossága 7. Digitalizáció a hajózásban p. 2
A globális GDP 2017: +3.5% Globális növekedés erősödik Great Britain +1.5%
Germany
+1.5%
Japan +1.2% China +6.6%
Eurozone +1.6% United States +2.1%
India +7.3% Mexico +1.7%
Turkey +3.0%
Colombia +1.7% Saudi Arabia +0.2% Brazil +0.4%
South Africa +0.8% *GDP- Gross Domestic Product Source: Global Economiy Watch PwC, IMF, from August 2017, The Economist p. 3
Asia Pacific GDP 2017*: +4.5% Jelentős növekedés várható China +6.6% South Korea +2.6%
Japan +1.2% Australia +2.7%
Vietnam +6.3%
Indonesia +5.1% India +7.3% *selected countries Source: Global Economy Watch PwC, IMF, from August 2017, The Economist p. 4
Teljes logisztikai piac várható növekedése 2016 – 2020 (Global) 9,7%
10,0% 9,0%
2016 – 2020 CAGR
8,0% 7,0% 6,0%
5,6%
5,2%
4,7%
5,0%
5,1%
3,7%
4,0%
3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Outsourced Contract Logistics
Airfreight (managed by forwarders)
Seafreight (managed by forwarders)
Domestic parcels
International parcels
Total Logistics
CAGR= Compounded Annual Growth , Source: TransportIntelligence p. 5
Teljes logisztikai piac várható növekedése 2016 – 2020 ( Asia Pacific) 14,5% 14,0%
2016 – 2020 CAGR
12,0% 10,0%
8,5%
8,0%
8,0% 6,0%
4,5%
7,2%
5,2%
4,0% 2,0% 0,0% Outsourced Contract Logistics
Airfreight (managed by forwarders)
Seafreight (managed by forwarders)
Domestic parcels
International parcels
Total Logistics
CAGR= Compounded Annual Growth , Source: TransportIntelligence Business Unit Update
October November 2017
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Nehézolaj (Bunker) Növekvő nyersolajárak kihatása a nehézolaj árára IMO sulphur cap from 2020 will drive transformational shift away from high-sulphur fuels to lower sulphur marine oils 53,65
52,07
48,64 53,50
52,10
54,65
53,00
52,80
51,10
2018
2019
48,15
50,61
47,17
2017 Bunker fuel, Rotterdam, USD/bbl
Bunker fuel, New York, USD/bbl
Bunker fuel, Singapore, USD/bbl
Bunker fuel, global average, USD/bbl
Source: LQM Petroleum Price and Bloomberg Bunker Index, Platts, BMI, A/S Global Risk Management October - November 2017
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Üzletágankénti növekedés a teljes logisztikai piacon 1 -9 hónap 2017 Légi szállítmányozás
Piaci növekedés ~4% margin stabilizáció 2017-ben Erős növekedés: Transpacific Transatlantic vonalakon
Piaci növekedés ~10% Jelentős az export volumen Európából Ázsiába
Közúti szállítmányozás
Szerződéses logisztika
„Last-mile” szállítások robbanásszerű növekedése , egyéb piacok kiegyensúlyozottan teljesítenek
Globalis Piaci növekedés tovább folytatódik AsiaPacific piaci növekedése a legjelentősebb Nagy a verseny a szektorban
Piac
Üzletág
Tengeri szállítmányozás
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Globális konténer volumenek kereskedelmi régiónként 2017-ben
p. 9
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Globális konténer volumen növekedés kereskedelmi régiónként 2017 Q2
p. 11
A világ konténer forgalma (millió TEU)
200
189
180 160 142
140
149
148
155
161
167
173
178 181
132
128 117
120
106 92
100 70
72
2001
80
2000
81
60 40 20
Otto Schacht / Executive Vice President Sea Logistics
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
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Globális hajótérkereslet és kínálat A túlkínálat a végéhez közeledik 15% 12,0% 10%
5%
7%
6%
4%
9%
8% 6%
4%
6%
6%
6%
5% 4%
5% 4%
3% 3% 2% considered, 2% 2% Source: various sources Kuehne + Nagel estimates 2%
0% 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
4%
0% 2019
-5%
-10%
-12,0% -15% Demand ( Estimate Kuehne + Nagel)
Supply
Source: various sources considered, Kuehne + Nagel estimates p. 13
Asia / EU tengeri fuvardíjszintek SCFI ( $ / TEU ) • A fuvardíjak megháromszorozódtak az elmúlt 12 hónapban. • 6 hónapos távlatban stabilizálódás látszik • Jelenleg a díjmozgás USD 200-300/40’, szemben a korábbi, akár 1000 USD eltéréssel
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A fuvardíjak alakulása az elmúlt 3 évben Asia Export Díjak kilengése több, mint USD $ 5.000/40’!
from Container Shipping Market Update Otto Schacht, October 2017 p. 15
Hajóstársaságok profitabilitása Többségük újra fekete számokat mutat
K+N No. 1 customer in all three alliances from Container Shipping Market Update Otto Schacht, October 2017 p. 16
Hajóstársasági pénzügyi eredmények 2015-2016 Jelentős veszteségek az alacsony fuvardíjak miatt
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Hajóstársasági eredmények 2016 Ki követi a Hanjint ?
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Hajóstársasági konszolidációk Top 5 részesedése növekszik
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Hajóstársasági Szövetségek (Vessel Sharing Agreements) 3 szövetség 6 nagy hajóstársaság Ocean Alliance
2M
The Alliance
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késés Hajóstársasági rangsor 2017 augusztusi adatok alapján Global Top 18 carrier ranking - Aug 2017 72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
HMM Wan Hai OOCL Evergreen APL Hamburg Sud MSC COSCO NYK CMA CGM K Line ZIM Hapag Lloyd MOL Yang Ming Maersk Line UASC PIL Source: SeaIntel - Global Liner Performance report - Sep 2017
86%
Schedule Reliability: Measure of the actual ontime performance of individual vessel arrivals in ports (+/-1 day from proforma schedule) Average Delay for LATE Vessel Arrivals: Number of calendar days for vessels with actual arrival occurring two or more calendar days after scheduled arrival p. 21
Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késés Globális adatok Global schedule reliability 90% 85% 80% 75%
70% 65% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2012 2013 2014
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017
Global - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals 6 5 4 3 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Source: SeaIntel
2012
2013
2014
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015
2016
2017
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Szövetségek menetrend megbízhatósága Total East/West Alliance schedule reliability 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Sep/16 Oct/16 Nov/16 Dec/16 Jan/17 Feb/17 Mar/17 Apr/17 May/17 Jun/17 Jul/17 Aug/17 2M
Ocean
TA
CKYHE
G6
O3 Source: SeaIntel
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Szövetségek menetrend megbízhatósága Asia-USWC Alliance schedule reliability
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40%
2M
Ocean
TA
CKYHE
G6
O3
Asia-USEC Alliance schedule reliability 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
2M
Ocean
TA
CKYHE
G6
O3
Source: SeaIntel
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Szövetségek menetrend megbízhatósága Asia-North Europe Alliance schedule reliability 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35%
2M
Ocean
TA
CKYHE
G6
O3
Asia-MED Alliance schedule reliability 95% 85% 75%
65% 55% 45% 35%
2M
Ocean
TA
CKYHE
G6
O3
Source: SeaIntel
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Szövetségek menetrend megbízhatósága Transatlantic EB Alliance schedule reliability 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25%
2M:USEC-MED OCEAN:USEC-NEUR
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%
2M:USEC-NEUR TA:USEC-MED
OCEAN:USEC-MED TA:USEC-NEUR
Transatlantic WB Alliance schedule reliability
2M:MED-USEC OCEAN:NEUR-USEC
2M:NEUR-USEC TA:MED-USEC
OCEAN:MED-USEC TA:NEUR-USEC
Source: SeaIntel
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Távol – Kelet – Észak Európa Asia - North Europe schedule reliability 5
100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%
Asia - North Europe - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals
4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2012 2013 2014
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 Source: SeaIntel
Schedule reliability improved from 76.9% (Jul.) to 78.1% (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 6.2 percentage points Average delay for late vessel arrivals increased from 3.11 days (Jul.) to 3.21 days (Aug.) Y/Y increase of 0.34 days
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Távol – Kelet – Földközi tenger Asia - Mediterranean schedule reliability 95%
5
90%
4,5
85%
Asia - Mediterranean - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals
4
80% 75%
3,5
70%
3
65%
2,5
60%
2
55% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2012
2013
2014
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015
2016
2017
Source: SeaIntel
Schedule reliability slightly decreased from 79.8% (Jul.) to 78.7% (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 2.6 percentage points Average delay for late vessel arrivals increased from 3.00 days (Jul.) to 3.11 days (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 0.26 days
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Transpacific Westbound Transpacific WB - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals
Transpacific WB schedule reliability 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%
8 6 4 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2012 2013 2014
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 Source: SeaIntel
Schedule reliability decreased from 86.3% (Jul.) to 85.5% (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 4.0 percentage points Average delay for late vessel arrivals almost remains at the same level with 2.84 days (Jul.) and 2.85% (Aug.) Y/Y development shows a decrease of 0.12 days
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Transatlantic Eastbound Transatlantic EB schedule reliability 5
90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45%
Transatlantic EB - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals
4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2012 2013 2014
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2016 2017 Source: SeaIntel
Schedule reliability improved from 72.5% (Jul.) to 74.4% (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 11.5 percentage points Average delay for late vessel arrivals slightly increased from 3.41 days (Jul.) to 3.45 days (Aug.) Y/Y increase of 0.15 days
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Menetrendek megbízhatósága / Átlagos késések Transatlantic Westbound Transatlantic WB schedule reliability 6
90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35%
Transatlantic WB - Avg. delay for LATE vessel arrivals
5 4 3 2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: SeaIntel
Schedule reliability marginally increased from 74.2% (Jul.) to 74.3% (Aug.) Y/Y decrease of 13.1 percentage points Average delay for late vessel slightly increased from 3.15 days (Jul.) to 3.18 days (Aug.) Y/Y increase of 0.01 days
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Digitalizáció a hajózásban (Lloyd’s List 2017.04.:Digitalisation with ocean carriers)
As ocean carriers look for start-ups with appropriate digital skills, they have to understand how to introduce outsiders into their core business CONTAINER lines are buying in skills as they prepare to digitalise the services they offer, without having a clear idea of how their companies are likely to change in the era of Amazon, Uber and Alibaba.
with Alibaba to offer digital services for customers through the OneTouch Platform. So too is Zim. Maersk is also teaming up with IBM to use block chain technology to digitalise paperwork related to the global supply chain process to improve efficiency and optimise costs.
What they do think is that change will come, and that they do not have the in-house expertise at the moment to manage the process. Even the biggest and most technologically advanced realise they will have to look outside, and beyond the traditional maritime sector, to find the knowhow they need. Both Maersk and CMA CGM, two of th e world‟s largest container lines, have spoken frankly about the challenges they now face as the business world and customer behaviour continues to evolve at astonishing speed.
Digitalising the many steps required to move a container from one part of the world to another could take a huge amount of cost out of the supply chain, Maersk Line‟s chief commercial officer Vincent Clerc told the recent TPM conference in Long Beach. “Digital technology provides a lot of different possibilities to do things that we could not do a few years ago,” he says.
“Digitalisation will play an important role. It will definitely change the way we do business,” says CMA CGM chief executive Rodolphe Saadé. But how it will alter container shipping and whether the impact will be positive or negative, is hard to tell. “We know how to deal with tough situations,” he says, but digitalisation is totally unfamiliar and taking the industry into uncharted territory. That, he cautions, is what makes this technology so different for an industry that is used to having the upper hand when it comes to shaping change. Maersk is also gearing up for the digitalisation of container shipping services which, says group chief executive Søren Skou, could happen quite suddenly, just as it has in other industries. Digitalisation will mean a change of behaviour by both carriers and shippers, he acknowledges, although it is not yet obvious how this will unfold. “But it could go very fast once you have the capability to deliver the customer experience,” he predicted during a recent interview This potential rapid change has persuaded Maersk and CMA CGM — and presumably others — that they need to acquire new skillsets quickly rather than develop these at a less pressured pace in house. Both companies have said they are prepared to buy start -ups to help with the transition, with CMA CGM setting up a venture capital fund as it look s around for suitable targets. The fund expects to spend around €2m ($2.1m) a year on digital start -ups related to the container shipping business, with CMA CGM having already invested in Traxens, a French firm that has developed a container tracking syste m. Mediterranean Shipping Co is also backing Traxens. As with CMA CGM, MSC will invest capital into the pilot project and the Geneva -based liner operator will also be represented on the company‟s board of directors “I believe digitalisation will affect the industry very much, and at CMA CGM, we are working very hard on everything concerned with digital technologies. We believe it will bring in new customers and eventually offer better services and save costs. In today‟s environment, you cannot afford not to go digital,” says Mr Saadé. Digitalisation “will become the name of the game”. CMA CGM is also piloting an e-commerce platform called Freddie that will enable customers to book online, track containers, and pay online, and hopes it will be ready go live i n the summer. Maersk has not disclosed how much it is prepared to spend, but Mr Skou has said he would consider start-up acquisitions “if it could bring something that we do not have, and faster than we could develop ourselves”. The Danish line is already testing out new ways of marketing space on its ships, having announced plans last December to sell slots on the Alibaba platform, followed by a similar agreement with another e-commerce service, Yun Qu Na, a few weeks ago, but wants to take the trials step by step. Likewise, CMA CGM is working
At the moment, there may be some 200 interactions involving documentation along t he supply chain that could be digitalised. Typically, the shipper and consignee may have to deal with 28 different entities, such as customs, terminals, forwarders and carriers, creating a stack of paper required to arrange a shipment. Maersk Line has also revealed that it is exploring the possibility of building an end-to-end global trade network in which each and every interaction can be digitalised, based in part on blockchain technology. Meanwhile, Maersk's logistics arm Damco has set up Twill Logistics, an in-house digital freight forwarder designed to simplify and digitalise the shipping process for customers. Digital sceptics However, not everyone is convinced that digitalisation is going to transform the container shipping world beyond all recognitio n. One of the most powerful voices in the industry and a huge buyer of freight space is somewhat unconvinced. Kuhne+Nagel executive vice-president global sea freight Otto Schacht says: “There‟s a lot of hype on the subject of digitalisation and automation. "This all started, at least in our company, many years ago, and today our system is fully integrated with carriers‟ systems." Nevertheless, K+N is not complacent about the need to keep innovating. “It is a continuous process,” Mr Schacht acknowledges. “There is huge potential in managing supply chains and reducing inventory costs. We have to do more.” Another sceptic is the consultancy firm SeaIntel, which claims much of what is currently on offer is not particularly new. Rather, it has been seen in various forms, and with varying degrees of success, over the past 20 years or more, from when electronic data interchange trials first began. “Many of the initiatives launched these days are actually not new at all. It has all been done before,” SeaIntel points out. “And, in reality, many of the initiatives launched previously quite simply failed.” In 1998, the online tool Greybox was set up for the repositioning of empty containers, while in 2000, the e-commerce group Bolero started to develop electronic bills o f lading. A few years later, Maersk launched Youship, a pure online forwarder, in 2007, although it had had an earlier iteration under P&O Nedlloyd in 2004. Around the same time, the shipbroking giant Clarkson and Synchronet developed an electronic trading platform for ocean transport called Global Slot Network, designed to facilitate the sale and purchase of slot capacity and cargo. In 1998, online freight portal eRateRequest was launched. “Reviewing the past history of e-commerce in the container
shipping sector clearly shows that none of new initiatives being launched now are truly new,” SeaIntel claims. The important lesson to learn from these previous attempts was that it was important not just to focus on the “brilliance” of the technology. “It should be clear that if this was purely a matter of technology, we would have already seen the complete digitalisation of the industry,” SeaIntel says. “The „old‟ technology used previously did indeed work — it got the job done. Yet that was insufficient to result in success.” Instead, new services must focus on business processes rather than technology for its own sake . “Online freight portals require the buy -in from particularly carriers to actually post dynamic and functioning spot rates for all to see,” SeaIntel says. “And even that is insufficient; it requires that the carriers in question change their internal processes for setting prices in the first place to match such an environment.” While there is an almost endless supply of shippers willing to try a new service, there are only a limited number of carriers controlling the physical assets, and no service can be successful without access to those carriers. However, the failure of previous attempts should not discourage those launching new services now, SeaIntel says. “The ones who will emerge successful are those who have learned from history, and have learned the lesson that it is not about technology but is about business processes. Importantly, it is about getting the carriers on board with embracing chan ges in business processes, assisting them in doing this.” Adapt or fail But whether or not the so -called „new‟ technology is really all that new, it seems clear that this time around, container lines really will have to adapt to stay in business, but how? Industry analyst Lars Jensen, author of the book Liner Shipping 2025, How to Survive and Thrive, says the IT landscape is changing but warns that this encompasses much more than just hardware and software. The successful lines of the future must have the a bility to translate business processes into IT requirements, implement solutions into the actual organisations, become agile, and change at a pace matching those elsewhere. It is also about being able to test new concepts quickly, and recognise when individual solutions should be discarded in favour of global standards and solutions. “Simply put, shipping lines which approach this transformation from the perspective that this is all about buying a new customer -facing IT system, or fantastic-looking application, but without fundamentally addressing the process issue and the IT architecture, are exceedingly likely to fail in the long-term transformation,” he writes. New types of people will be needed with very different skillsets from today, but who will have little understanding of the industry they are joining, including its quirks and idiosyncrasies. “Only by providing them with this knowledge will they be able to leverage their own skills for the improvement of the overall business model,” says Mr Jensen. “Shipping lines have correctly ascertained that failure to embark on a path to digitalisation will drastically reduce their likelihood of being a successful company on 2025, but the greatest risk at this stage is for them to see digitalisation primarily as the need to build IT systems,” says Mr Jensen.
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Köszönöm!
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