LAMPlRAN
Lampiran I. Theoretical Mapping
Tahun
1982
Nama
Judul
Variabel (*dependen)
•
Rozeff, M. S
Growth beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios
•
•
• •
1994
Damodaran, A.
Returning cash to the owners: Dividend Policy
1996
Collins, M. C., Saxena, K., & WanSley, J.w.
The role of insiders and dividend policy: a comparison of regulated and unregulated firms
2000
Fama, E. F, & French, K. R
Dissapearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to ..Q!ly?
2002
Baker, K. & Smith, D. M.
In search of residual dividend policy
• • • • •
• • • • • • • • •
• • • • •
Dividend Payout Ratio' Beta Coefficient Growth revenues Jumlah pemegang saham Dividend Yield' Beta Coefficient Age Income Differential tax rate Dividend Payout Ratio' Historic Growth Expected Growth Systematic risk (beta) Number of Share outstanding Insider Holdir1Qs Dividend Policy' Profitability Investment Opportuniy Size Residual dividend policy' Company size Tobin's Q Agency Earnings Volatility
Model
Hasil
Multiple regression
Beta memiliki hubungan neg at if dengan pembayaran dividen. Varia bel independen lainnyajuga berpengaruh terhad~a£embayaran dividen
OLS regression
Beta memiliki hubungan negatif dengan pembayaran dividen.
OLS regression
Faktor-daktor dalam penelitian memiliki hubungan dengan pembayaran dividen
Regresi Logit
Profitabilitas, peluang investasi dan ukuran perusahaan berpengaruh terhadap kebijakan dividen
Regresi Logit
Company size, Tobin's Q, Agency, dan Earnings Volatility memiliki hubungan dengan residual dividend policy, tetapi propensity to do share buy back tidak berhubungan dengan Residual policy
ljutKan
60
Lampiran 1. Theoretical Mapping (lanjutan)
Tahun
Nama
Judul
2002
Grullon, G., Michaely, R., & Swami nathan, B.
Are dividend changes a sign of firm maturity?
Mahadwartha, P. A.
The Association of managerial ownership with dividend policy and leverage policy: Indonesian Firms.
2002
Variabel (*dependen)
• • • •
• • • •
• 2003
Bhattacharyya, N., Mawani, A. & Morrill, C.
Dividend payout and executive compensation: evidence and theory
2004
Baker M., & Wurgler, J.
A Catering Theory of Dividends
2004
Brav, A., Graham, J., Harvey, c., & Michaely, R.
Payout policy in 21 st centuries
2004
Vozlioublennaia, N
Dividend policy andlong memory behaviour of individual stocks
• • • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • • •
Dividend Payout Ratio* Profitability Risk changes Managerial Ownership * leverage dividen Size Periode krisis Dividend Payout* Compensation LNINCOME LNASSETS DEBTEQ MKTBOOK CAPEXP Beta Dividend payment* Stock market - dividend premium Dividend yield* Sales EPS Credit rating MB Dividend policy* earning debt capital expenditure
Model
Hasil
Multivariate regression
Adanya hubungan yang positif antara profitabilitas dan kebijakan dividen
Regresi Logit
Dividen berpengaruh terhadap managerial ownership
Regresi Tobit
Compensation, LNINCOME, LNASSETS, DEBTEQ, MKTBOOK, CAPEXP dan Beta berpengaruh terhadap pembayaran dividen
Model Regresi Logit
keputusan pembayaran dividen dikendalikan oleh permintaan investor
Ordinary Least Square Regression
Adanya hubungan antara dividen dan faktor - faktor yang diteliti.
ARFIMA Model
Terdapat hubungan antara earning dengan kebijakan dividen
Dilanjutkan
61
Lampiran 1. Theoretical Mapping (Ianjutan)
Tahun
2005
2006
Nama
Judul
Varia bel (*dependen)
Hoberg, G., & Prabhala, N. R
Dissapearing dividends The importance of idiosyncratic risk and the irrelevance of catering
• • •
·•
Dividend policy* Profitabilitas Market beta Market Capitalization Peluang bertumbuh
How Predictable are dividend cuts
• • • •
Dividend cut (dummy)* Net income Size level Tobin's Q Leverage KZ Index G Index
Bryant L., Flagg, D, & Kudrimoti, S.
·• •
2007
Martina Pisca Tansel
Analisis Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kebijakan Dividen dengan Menggunakan Model Logit
• • • •
• •
Kebijakan Dividen* Resiko sistematis Ukuran perusahaan Financial leverage Peluang bertumbuh Profitabilitas
Model
Hasil
Regresi Logit
Profitabilitas, market beta, dan market capitalization berpengaruh terhadap kebijakan dividen
Regresi Probit
Keputusan dividend cut secara negatif berhubungan dengan net income level, cash flow level, size, dan peluang bertumbuh, sedangkan keputusan dividend cut secara positif berhubungan dengan leverage dan financial constraint.
Model Regresi Logit
Tidak semua faktor berpengaruh terhadap kebijakan dividen. Beberapa faktor yang berpengaruh adalah financial leverage, ukuran perusahaan dan peluang bertumbuh
62
63
Lampiran 2. Statistik DeskriptifVariabeJ Periode 2001-2005
Dependent Variable: Y_2001 Descriptive statistics for explanato,}, variables Mean De~=1
All
Variable
Dep=O
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
1.000000 1.371279 25.46606 0.865802 4.488837 -0.577935
1.000000 1.391000 26.27603 0.472421 14.47826 0.171381
Variable
Dep=O
Standard Deviation Dep=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
0.000000 0.222553 1.535239 0.563068 19.54656 4.290037
0.000000 0207514 1.783342 0.211929 36.80867 0.125805
0.000000 0.214125 1.703527 0.466897 29.72367 3.040360
Observations
43
43
86
1.000000 1.381140 25.87104 0.669112 9.483547 -0.203277
Dependent Variable: Y_2002 Descriptive statistics for explanato,}, variables Variable
Dep=O
Mean Dep=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
1000000 2.613487 25.47711 0.803838 12.65682 0.070164
1.000000 2.656359 26.12768 0.455295 14.91766 0.219479
1.000000 2.634923 25.80239 0.629567 13.78724 0.144822
Variable
Dep=O
De~=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
0000000 0303042 1 437183 0.804157 4955072 2.134782
0000000 0.216711 1.495825 0.214117 41 14381 0.221006
0.000000 0.262609 1.493565 0.610349 45.25928 1.509571
Observations
39
39
78
Standard Deviation
Dependent Variable: Y_2003 Descriptive statistics for explanato,}, variables Variable
Dep=O
Mean Dep=1
All
C Z1_BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
1.000000 0956298 25.69520 0.607008 5.346407 0.421425
1.000000 0937450 26.62979 0.423995 16.49456 0.113675
1.000000 0946874 2616249 0.515501 10.92049 0267550
Variable
Dep=O
De~=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
0000000 0.298162 1.367345 0.339845 55.40225 3.315431
0.000000 0.252267 1.967965 0.188513 33.35802 0.128182
0000000 0.274580 1.748154 0.288166 45.78294 2.336356
Observations
40
40
80
Standard Deviation
64
Lampiran 2. Statistik Deskriptif Variabel Periode 2001-2005 (Ianjutan) Dependent Variable: Y_ 2004 Descriptive statistics for
explanato~
variables
Variable
Dep=O
Mean Dep=1
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
1.000000 0.091905 26.02225 0.671861 26.62864 -0.293707
1000000 0.011820 27.16207 0445237 9.055695 0.077205
Variable
Dep=O
Standard Deviation Dep=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
0000000 0454985 1.459506 0444823 177.1717 1.644599
0.000000 0.505025 1.859694 0.193864 11.71501 0.164313
0000000 0479377 1.757446 0.359542 125.0882 1.176354
Observations
41
41
82
All 1000000 0.051862 26.59216 0.558549 17.84217 -0.108251
Dependent Variable: Y_ 2005 Descriptive statistics for explanato'}' variables Variable
Dep=O
Mean Dep=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
1.000000 0.167166 25.62743 0.666957 7144378 0013812
1.000000 0.217788 27.14864 0.436481 13.81994 0.118000
1.000000 0.192477 26.38803 0.551719 42.63186 0.065906
Variable
Dep=O
Standard DeViation Dep=1
All
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
0000000 0.257679 1473340 0.399363 4236994 0.768301
0000000 0.354870 1.835982 0.179361 30.25526 0.082739
0.000000 0.309282 1.822878 0.328809 299.9524 0.545633
Observations
42
42
84
65
Lampiran 3. Bar Chart Variabel Independen Resiko Sistematis (BETA) 3.0000
25000
20000
,
1
5000
>
0800
05000
00000 200·
2802
20D5
2004
2J03
Tahun
Peluang Bertumbuh (MB)
80 0000
70 0000
60 COOO
so,cooo ~ 40
>
cooo
300000
20,0000
100000
~
c:: ,§c ______ L~_J ~
0,0000
lee
lJ03
2002
2004
2D05
Tahun
Profitabilitas (EPR)
20C2
2005
Tahun
66
Lampiran 4. Hasil Regresi Logit Periode 2001-2005 Dependent Variable: Y_2001 OML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statlstlc
Prob
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3 LR Z4 MB Z5 EPR
-5492022 -0.008714 0.284764 -3.235079 0.013393 -0.014571
4050238 1.150236 0.144171 0.934592 0.010086 0.064269
-1.355975 -0.007575 1.975185 -3461486 1.327833 -0.226718
0.1751 0.9940 0.0482 0.0005 0.1842 0.8206
LR statistic (5 df) Probabilitr(LR stat)
26.15686 8.32E-05
Obs with Dep=O Obs with Dep=1
43 43
McFadden R-squared 0.219398 86
Totalobs
Dependent Variable Y_2002 OML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statlstic
Prob.
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4 MB Z5 EPR
-3441959 0.214929 0.179232 -3 159369 -0.001749 0.206672
5403486 1.046936 0.188538 0.908329 0.004955 0.222461
-0.636989 0.205293 0.950642 -3478219 -0.352868 0.929027
0.5241 0.8373 0.3418 0.0005 0.7242 0.3529
LR statistic (5 df) Probability(LR stat)
15.74637 0.007607
Obs with Dep=O Obs with Dep= 1
39 39
McFadden R-squared 0.145623 Totalobs
78
Dependent Variable. Y_2003 OML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statistic
Prob.
C Z1 BETA Z2 SIZE Z3_LR Z4 MB Z5 EPR
-6.870173 -0.521414 0.328021 -2.555780 0.005597 0.051569
4.052212 0.912723 0.151168 0.945601 0.007241 0.068956
-1.695413 -0.571273 2.169911 -2.702808 0772985 0.747862
0.0900 0.5678 0.0300 0.0069 0.4395 0.4545
LR statistic (5 df) Probabilit~(LR stat)
15.06441 0.010091
Obs with Dep=O Obs with Dep= 1
40 40
McFadden R-squared 0.135833 Totalobs
80
67
Lampiran 4. HasH Regresi Logit Periode 2001-2005 (lanjutan) Dependent Variable: Y_2004 OML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statistic
Prob
C Z1 BETA Z2_SIZE Z3 LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
-9.438172 -0.638137 OA06093 -2.548099 -0.002150 1.506924
4.250036 0.580876 0.161530 1.128987 0.002601 2.126671
-2.220728 -1.098577 2.514043 -2.256978 -0.826778 0.708584
0.0264 0.2720 0.0119 0.0240 OA084 0.4786
LR statistic (5 df) Probabilit~(LR stat)
21.52837 0.000643
McFadden R-squared
o 189383
Obs with Dep=O Obs with Dep= 1
41 41
Totalobs
82
Dependent Variable: Y_2005 OML (Huber/White) standard errors & covariance Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
z-Statlstic
Prob.
C Z1 BETA Z2_SIZE Z3_LR Z4_MB Z5 EPR
-13.80287 0.330683 0584224 -3.251499 -0.001007 0.527379
4A99475 0.783827 0.168583 1.108466 0.000535 0.460607
-3.067662 0.421883 3.465507 -2.933332 -1 883028 1.144966
0.0022 0.6731 0.0005 0.0034 0.0597 0.2522
LR statistic (5 df) Probabilit),(LR stat)
28.12006 3.45E-05
Obs with Dep=O Obs with Oep=1
42 42
McFadden R-squared 0.241480 Totalobs
84
69
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Kesesuaian Model Periode 2001-2005 (Ianjutan) Dependent Variable: Y_2004 Grouping based upon predicted risk (randomize ties) Dep=O Dep=1 Quantile 01 Risk Low High Actual Expect Actual Expect 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 E-10 0.1317 0.2515 0.3851 0.4803 0.5230 0.5822 0.6672 0.7112 0.7787
0.1182 0.2398 0.3766 0.4599 0.5213 0.5807 0.6615 0.7108 0.7777 0.9269 Total
H-L Statistic Andrews Statistic·
7.48565 6.49359 5.49098 4.63971 4.50163 3.49798 3.08239 2.47315 203813 1.29678
1 2 2 2 4 5 5 5 7 8
0.51435 1.50641 2.50902 3.36029 4.49837 4.50202 4.91761 5.52685 5.96187 7.70322
41 410000
41
41.0000
7 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 1
2.9805 4.4896
Total Obs
H-L Value
8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9
0.49004 0.19925 0.15045 0.94948 0.11039 0.12598 0.00358 0.16246 070955 007936
82 2.98053
Prob[Chi-Sq(8 dl)l Prob[Chl-Sq(10 dl)l
0.9356 0.9226
Dependent Variable: Y_2005 Grouping based upon predicted risk (randomize ties) Quantile of Risk High Low 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.0010 0.0879 0.1926 0.3690 0.4441 05421 0.6169 0.6707 0.7414 0.8429
0.0817 0.1888 0.3471 0.4417 0.4976 0.5850 0.6608 0.7186 0.8189 0.9650 Total
H-L Statistic Andrews Statistic:
Actual 8 8 5 4 3 5 3 3 2
Oep=O Dep=1 Expect Actual Expect 7.69771 6.92013 6.43212 467590 4.68373 3.48868 2.87435 2.69669 175650 0.77419
0 0 4 4 6 3 5 6 6 8
42 42.0000
42
5.5110 17.4896
0.30229 1.07987 2.56788 3.32410 4.31627 4.51132 5.12565 6.30331 6.24350 8.22581 42.0000
Total Obs
H-L Value
8 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 8 9
0.31416 1.24838 1.11757 023514 1.26208 1.16102 0.00857 0.04871 0.04325 007206
84 5.51095
Prob[Chl-Sq(8 dl)l Prob[Chl-Sq(10 dl)l
0.7018 0.0642
