Klimaatverandering: oorzaken, gevolgen en onzekerheden
Bert de Vries Kargadoor Utrecht, 23 mei 2013 http://www.sustainabilityscience.eu/textbook/about
Wat is wetenschap? Wetenschap is niet meer wat het geweest is, zij is post-normaal geworden. We moeten expliciet rekening houden met complexiteit, onzekerheid en controversen. mas s vel oci ty… v. mas s pos iti on X : 1 -
mas s vel oci ty… v. mas s pos iti on X : 1 -
mas s vel oci ty… v. mas s pos iti on X : 1 -
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Wat is duurzaamheid? Duurzaamheid is denken, voelen en handelen in het spanningsveld tussen het zoveel mogelijk objectief vast te stellen mogelijke en het onvermijdelijk subjectief wenselijke.
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• Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment • Linked economy, energy, agriculture and land-use • Coupled system for land use, biogeochemical cycles, climate
IMAGE 2.2: Regions (energy, agricultural trade)
Population, economy, energy: from 13 to 19 to 27 regions Land Use land Cover (Change) LUCC: 0.5o x 0.5o
A2
A1B B2 B1 How much goes in: global CO2-emissions (GtC, standardized) from all sources for the SRES-scenarios (2000) From: SRES January 2000 - Nakicenovic et al.
How much does this change the (average global surface) temperature
IPCC AR4 WG
How much does this change the surface temperature?
IPCC AR4 WG
Impacts
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10
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Temperatuurstijging Temperatuurstijging ( C) ( C)
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From temperature to emission target.
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8 6 6 4 4 2 Graden
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2040
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Broeikasgasconcentratie (ppm 400 600 800 CO2-eq) 1000 Broeikasgasconcentratie (ppm CO -eq)
2 2oC target corresponds to around 400-450 ppm CO2 eq. (80-50% probability). Corresponds to a 50% emission reduction in 2050
Van Vuuren et al. (2008). Temperature increase of 21st scenarios. PNAS. 105. 40. 15258–15262
Mitigation scenarios – integrated analysis
Nuclear
Biofuels + CCS
Oil+CCS
Biofuels
Oil
Renewables
Natural gas+CCS
Coal+CCS
Natural gas
Coal
Major changes in the global energy system
Van Vuuren et al. Stabilising GHG emissions at low concentration levels.Climatic
Costs of stabilising emissions
Carbon tax ($/tC-eq)
800 700 600
650 CO2-eq 550 CO2-eq 450 CO2-eq
500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Abatement costs (%GDP) Mitiigations costs (% GDP)
Carbon tax
2.5 2.0
650 CO2-eq 550 CO2-eq 450 CO2-eq
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Substantial costs But nothing to disrupt the economy
Van Vuuren et al. Stabilising GHG emissions at low concentration levels.Climatic Change
a)
b) 800
800
Logistic growth of X
Logistic growth of X
exponentiele groei
logistieke groei Carrying Capacity
Carrying Capacity
Exponential growth of X
Size of X
Size of X
Exponential growth of X
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d) 800
800 Logistic growth of X
Logistic growth of X
Exponential growth of X
Exponential growth of X
Carrying Capacity
Carrying Capacity
Size of X
Size of X
480
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de optimist
240
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de pessimist
Vormen van toename en afname
Conservative [non-worldly] ideals
Caring faithful (13%) Conservatives (17%) Socially minded (11%)
Collective Other
Balanced (28%)
Hedonists (8%)
Individual Self
Broad minded (7%) Materialists (7%) Professionals (9%)
(de Vries 2012) Progressive [Worldly] achievement
(PBL 2004, De Vries en Petersen 2009)
Absolute Idealism
Geestelijk mental/spiritual Immaterieel immaterial Subjective Idealism
Grote Wereld universal Universeel
kleine wereld particular persoonlijk
Modernism: Objective Materialism bodily Stoffelijk material Materieel
Postmodernism: Subjective Materialism
Decadence is the subordination of the whole to the parts’ (Oscar Wilde)
NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
Statement: The Earth is on its way to the next Ice Age – global warming is at most a temporary slowdown. It is an illusion that we can control the future evolution of the world. Let’s trust our ingenuity and adaptability!
It is good that some scientists put climate change in perspective, if only to calm down the alarmists. Most climate policies are costly and unnecessary.
An irresponsible attitude. Life is precious and humans do not have the moral right to interfere in this way.
Irresponsible. There is quite some evidence that humaninduced climate change may trigger catastrophic system change. This will have large consequences for our (grand)children.
www.sustainabilityscience.eu/textbook
• Aalbers, T., ed. Waardenoriëntaties, wereldbeelden en maatschappelijke vraagstukken: Verantwoording van het opinieonderzoek voor de Duurzaamheidsverkenning Kwaliteit en Toekomst. Report 550031002. Bilthoven, the Netherlands: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2006. Available at www.mnp.nlbibliotheekrapporten550031002.pdf. • de Vries, B. Perspectieven op duurzame ontwikkeling, Lucht en Omgeving 6 no. 4, (1989): 168–172 • de Vries, B., and J. Goudsblom, eds.. Mappae Mundi – Humans and Their Habitats in a Long-Term Socio-ecological Perspective. Myths, Maps, and Models. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2002. • de Vries, B., and A. Petersen. Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios, Ecological Economics 68 (2009): 1006–1019. • van Egmond, N., and B. de Vries. Sustainability: the search for the integral worldview, Futures 43 (2011): 853–867. • de Vries, B. Sustainability Science – Guidance for Life on a Finite Planet. Cambridge University Press, 2013 (www.sustainabilityscience.eu/textbook)
• Inglehart, R. and C. Welzel. Modernization, Cultural Change and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005 • Thompson, M., R. Ellis and A. Wildawsky. Cultural Theory. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990 • van Egmond, K. Een vorm van beschaving. Chistofoor, Zeist, 2010 • Verweij, M., and M. Thompson, eds. Clumsy Solutions for a Complex World: Governance, Politics, and Plural Perceptions. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006 Websites: • www.sustainabilityscience.eu • http://www.klaasvanegmond.nl/eenvormvanbeschaving
