Labor Economics Series
Investasi Sumber Daya Manusia Andri Wijanarko
1
Chinese Proverb Give a man a fish and you feed him for one day Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime 2
Pendidikan
Mencari jenjang pendidikan lebih tinggi
SMP
?
SMU Lulus SMU
SD 3
Pasca SMU
Menikah
Kuliah Bekerja
4
Mengapa Kuliah ? Alasan Disuruh orang tua
Ekspektasi pendapatan Ikut-ikutan 5
Human Capital Definition • Unique set of abilities and acquired skills to entering labor market.
Assumption • Maximizes the present value of lifetime earnings 6
HIGHEST GRADE COMPLETED (USA 1996 - Percent of Population in Education Category)
GROUP
Less than high School
High School Graduates
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor Degee
Advance Degree
All Person
18.3
33.6
17.3
7.2
15.8
7.8
Gender Male Female
18.1 18.4
31.9 35.1
17.4 17.3
6.6 7.8
16.4 15.1
9.5 6.2
Race White Black Hispanic
17.2 25.7 46.9
33.9 35.1 26.0
17.3 18.8 13.2
7.3 6.7 3.6
16.1 10.0 6.6
8.1 3.6 2.6
7
LABOR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS BY EDUCATION GROUP (ALL-WORKER-1996) USA
Less than high School
High School Graduates
Some College
College Graduates
Labor Force Participation Rate
60.2%
77.9%
83.7%
87.8%
Unemployment Rate
10.9%
5.5%
4.1%
2.2%
US$ 17.430
US$ 24.248
US$ 29.096
US$ 46.552
Annual Earnings
8
Present Value • Keputusan Investasi : Gain antara “Current Cost” dan “Future Returns” • Fakta : terdapat perbedaan nilai antara saat ini dengan yang akan datang 9
Present Value Present Value allows us to compare payment amount spent and received in different periods
y PV 1 r
Note : y Future Value
r Rate of Interest 10
Present Value The quantity Present Value (PV) tells us how much needs to be invested today in order have y dollars next year Period
0
1
2
3
4
5
Value
100.000
110.000
121.000
133.100
146.410
161.051 11
Schooling Model • Workers acquire the skill level that maximizes the present value of lifetime earnings Maximizes Utility • Education and other forms of training, therefor, are valued only because they increased earnings 12
Age-Earning Profile Upah
UKUL USMU
Usia 18
-U
22
65
13
Age-Earning Profile • Biaya melanjutkan pendidikan H • Asumsi : Highly educated more productive • Employer membayar wage wCOL untuk “mengganti” biaya pendidikan. • Worker akan melanjutkan pendidikan bila wHS < wCOL 14
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile
Present Value lulusan SMU (bekerja usia 18-64 th):
PVSMU wSMU
wSMU wSMU wSMU ... 2 (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) 46
15
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile Present Value melanjutkan pendidikan :
PVKUL
H H H H 2 (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r )3 Biaya Melanjutkan Pendidikan
wKUL wKUL wKUL ... 4 5 46 (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) Penghasilan Setelah Melanjutkan Pendidikan 16
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile Contoh : • Asumsi : worker hanya bekerja selama 2 tahun • Earning lulusan SMU : Rp 100.000
PVSMU
100.000 100.000 1 r 17
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile • Bila melanjutkan pendidikan 1 th, kemudian bekerja dengan earning Rp 250.000 dan biaya pendidikan Rp 40.000
PVKUL
250.000 40.000 1 r 18
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile Bila Interest : 5% maka : PVSMU 100 .000
PVKUL
100 .000 100 .000 95 .238 195 .238 1 0,05
250 .000 40 .000 40 .000 238 .095 198 .095 1 0,05
Karena PVSMU < PVKUL : Worker melanjutkan pendidikan 19
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile Bila Interest : 10% maka : PVSMU
100 .000 100 .000 100 .000 90 .909 190 .909 1 0,1
PVKUL
250 .000 40 .000 40 .000 227 .273 187 .273 1 0,1
Karena PVSMU > PVKUL : Worker tidak melanjutkan pendidikan 20
Present Value of Age-Earning Profile • Rate of Interest (rate of discount) berpengaruh terhadap keinginan melanjutkan pendidikan, dapat berupa market rate of interest. • Rate of Discount also depends on how we feel about giving up some of today’s consumption in return for future rewards. • Present Oriented Worker higher rate of discount 21
The Wage-Schooling Locus • Wage-Schooling Locus menggambarkan tingkat upah yang dibayarkan employer untuk tingkat pendidikan tertentu.
• Ditentukan oleh juga equilibrium pasar (Supply & Demand) 22
The Wage-Schooling Locus Dollars 28.000 25.000 23.000 20.000
12
13
14
18
Years of Schooling 23
Rata-rata Upah Pekerja Pria Th. 2005 1.800.000
1.717.029
1.600.000
1.446.329
1.400.000
1.204.205
1.200.000 1.000.000
956.579 979.182
896.538
800.000 640.983
600.000 400.000
332.925
731.785
521.409
434.955
200.000
Td k/B
Sumber : BPS, Sakernas Tahun 2005
ita s er s
II Un iv
ip. I
aI /II
ad em i/D
Ak
ju r Ke
SM TA
Di pl om
ua n
um Um
an SM TA
ur u Ke j
SM TP
Um
um
D S
SM TP
SD
lm
Ta m at
h ol a Se k Td k/B
lm
Pe r
na h
Ra
ta -ra ta
0
24
Rata-rata Upah Pekerja Wanita Th. 2005 1.400.000 1.207.982
1.200.000 998.390
1.000.000
1.060.401
769.514
800.000
676.002
634.378 600.000
453.083 475.690
400.000 187.142
200.000
290.716
224.856
Td k/B
Sumber : BPS, Sakernas Tahun 2005
ita s er s
II Un iv
ip. I
aI /II
ad em i/D
Ak
ju r Ke
SM TA
Di pl om
ua n
um Um
an SM TA
ur u Ke j
SM TP
Um
um
D S
SM TP
SD
lm
Ta m at
h ol a Se k Td k/B
lm
Pe r
na h
Ra
ta -ra ta
0
25
The Marginal Rate of Return to School • Slope of the wage-schooling locus (w / s) menyatakan peningkatan earnings yang diterima apabila melanjutkan pendidikan. • Menyatakan persentase peningkatan earnings untuk setiap peningkatan educational investment. 26
The Marginal Rate of Return to School Stage 1 Peningkatan $3.000 ($20.000 $23.000) karena menambah waktu pendidikan 1 th (12 tahun menjadi 13 tahun).
Peningkatan :
3.000 100% 15% 20.000 27
The Marginal Rate of Return to School Stage 2 Peningkatan $2.000 ($23.000 $25.000) karena menambah waktu pendidikan 1 th (13 tahun menjadi 14 tahun).
2.000 Peningkatan : 100% 8,7% 23.000 28
The Marginal Rate of Return to School Peningkatan semakin kecil Stage 1 = 15 % Stage 2 = 8,7 % Worker stop schooling bila : The Marginal Rate of Return to Schooling = Rate of Discount 29
The Schooling Decision Rate of Discount
r’
r = MRR
r MRR
s’
s’’
Years of Schooling 30
Penduduk usia 15 tahun yang mencari kerja di Surabaya Th.2003 140.000 120.000
131859 106910
100.000
87014
80.000
69276
85404
73968
60.000 40.000 20.000 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 31
Perbandingan Pencari Kerja dan Lapangan Kerja di DKI Jakarta 135.257
140.000 120.000 98.558
100.000
79.114
80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000
16.118
18.055 8.049
0
2000
2001
Kesempatan Kerja
2002 Pencari Kerja
32
Kompetensi Sarjana ORAL COMMUNICATION Ability to Work in Team Setting
Logical Skill
Knowledge of Field
Knowledge of Technology
Analytical Skill
Ability to Work Independently WRITTEN COMMUNICATION
33
See you next time… 34
