DEBT RESEARCH
QUARTERLY REPORT JULY 2014
Into the Wild
Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P BB+ Moody’s Baa3 Fitch BBBKey Market Indicators as of 17 Jul 2014 BI Rate 7.50% JCI 5.071 IDR 11,686 Inflation (YoY) 7.32% Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov’t Bonds as of 10 Jul 14 IDR 1,122.4 tn Corp Bonds as of Jun 14 IDR 215.75 tn
Better Performance of Emerging Market Country Bond Markets The bond markets of emerging market countries showed better performance in the second quarter of 2014, as reflected in Exhibit 1. The monthly average Philippines’ 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has been stable since earlier this year while Brazil’s 10-year LC bond yield declined from the previous quarter. As for Indonesia and Turkey, the movements of the 10year local currency sovereign bond yields were influenced by movements in the US Treasury 10year yield. Foreign investors continued to play a significant role in Indonesia’s domestic sovereign bond market, holding around 34%-35% of the total outstanding IDR tradable government securities. The increase in the US Treasuries yield is notable since it might mean that foreign investors demand a higher required yield to hold Indonesia’s IDR denominated government securities.
Performa yang lebih baik dari pasar obligasi Emerging Market Pasar obligasi negara-negara Emerging Market memperlihatkan kinerja yang lebih baik di kuartal kedua tahun 2014, seperti terlihat di Exhibit 1. Rata-rata per bulan dari yield obligasi pemerintah Filipina dalam mata uang lokal untuk tenor 10-tahun telah stabil sejak awal tahun sedangkan untuk Brazil telah mengalami penurunan dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya. Sedangkan untuk Indonesia dan Turki, terllihat pergerakan yield obligasi LC 10-tahun terpengaruh oleh pergerakan yield US Treasury. Investor asing masih memainkan peran yang signifikan di pasar obligasi Pemerintah, dengan kepemilikan SBN Rupiah yang dapat diperdagangkan mencapi 34-35% dari total outstanding. Kenaikan yield US Treasury berpotensi untuk menyebabkan kenaikan required yield investor asing untuk berinvestasi di instrumen surat utang negara.
Exhibit 1. Monthly Average of Local Currency Sovereign Bond Yield
Indonesia 10Y
Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3405
[email protected] Ayesha Ardelia (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3406
[email protected] Rifki Rizal (62 21) 2955 5777 ext 3404
[email protected]
Please read important disclosure at the back of this report. www.danareksa.com Bloomberg Ticker: DFMJ
Brazil 10Y
Philippines 10Y
Turkey 10Y
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
0.00%
Mar-14
1.25
Feb-14
2.00%
Jan-14
1.75
Dec-13
4.00%
Nov-13
2.25
Oct-13
6.00%
Sep-13
2.75
Aug-13
8.00%
Jul-13
3.25
Jun-13
10.00%
May-13
3.75
Apr-13
12.00%
Mar-13
4.25
Dec-12
Source: Bloomberg Mid YTM
14.00%
Feb-13
Benchmark Yields as of 17 Jul 2014 FR0069 (5 year) 7.760% FR0070 (10 year) 8.034% FR0071 (15 year) 8.513% FR0068 (20 year) 8.686%
4.75
Jan-13
Trading Volume in Jun 2014 Government Bonds IDR52.40 tn Corporate Bonds IDR 2.70 tn
US 10Y (LHS)
Source : Bloomberg Generic Yield Curve The 5-year CDS of these countries also exhibited a downward trend during the first semester of 2014. This indicates that investors need to pay a lower premium to protect them from default risk. The Philippines’ CDS continued to decline as the nation received further upgrades from rating agencies. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) increased the Philippines’ long term sovereign credit rating another notch to BBB with a stable outlook in May 2014, a year after S&P awarded the Philippines’ investment grade.
CDS 5-tahun dari negara-negara di atas juga memperlihatkan tren penurunan selama semester I 2014. Hal ini mengindikasikan biaya yang harus dibayarkan oleh investor untuk melindungi portofolionya dari risiko default instrumen sovereign bonds di atas juga mengalami penurunan. Pada Exhibit 2 terlihat CDS Filipina terus mengalami penurunan seiring kenaikan rating yang diberikan oleh lembaga pemeringkat. S&P meningkatkan long-term sovereign credit rating Filipina ke BBB dengan outlook stable di bulan Mei 2014, setahun setelah S&P memberikan peringkat investment grade kepada Filipina.
JUNE 2014
Exhibit 2. Credit Default Swaps – CDS 5Yyear 325
275
225
175
Indonesia
Brazil
Philippines
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
125
75
Turkey
Source : Bloomberg Interest Rates Remain Relatively High despite Easing Inflationary Pressures Indonesia has managed to grow its economy at a relatively brisk pace over the past few years. At the time of the 2008 financial crisis, the country still grew by above 4% and afterwards maintained a stable growth rate of around 5.5%6.5%, as can be seen in Exhibit 3. In the first semester of 2014, YoY inflation slowed to below 7% in June 2014 as the impact of subsidized fuel price hikes a year earlier started to dissipate. However, interest rates remain relatively high, as reflected in the BI Rate and the 3-month Jakarta Inter Bank Offered Rate (JIBOR 3Mo).
Tingkat Suku Bunga Tetap Tinggi Walau Inflasi Mereda Selama beberapa tahun terakhir, Indonesia telah berhasil menjaga laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat. Pada krisis keuangan tahun 2008, Indonesia masih tumbuh di atas 4% dan setelahnya mempertahankan laju pertumbuhan di level 5,5%-6,5%. Pada semester pertama tahun 2014, laju inflasi tahunan melambat hingga di bawah 7% pada bulan Juni 2014 seiring menghilangnya efek kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi tahun lalu. Namun, tingkat suku bunga masih relatif tinggi, seperti tergambar oleh BI Rate dan JIBOR 3 months.
Exhibit 3. Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Variable 3.50%
14.00%
3.00%
12.00%
2.50% 10.00%
2.00% 1.50%
8.00%
1.00%
6.00%
0.50% 4.00%
JIBOR 3Mo
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
BI Rate
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
YoY Inflation
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
MoM Inflation (LHS)
Sep-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
-0.50%
Sep-08
0.00%
2.00%
YoY GDP Growth (Smoothed)
Source : BPS, Bloomberg, CEIC When fuel prices were earlier hiked in 2008, Bank Indonesia raised its reference rate by a total of 150bps after the first reference rate hike in May 2008 and started to lower it seven months later after the inflationary pressures eased. This time, however, the central bank has decided that it needs to keep the reference rate high for a longer period of time, keeping a close eye on the USD/IDR exchange rate as BI tries to address the issue of a growing current account deficit. In 2013, BI raised the BI Rate by 175bps.
Pada kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi sebelumnya, Bank Indonesia meningkatkan BI Rate sebesar 150bp sejak kenaikan pertama di bulan Mei 2008 dan mulai menurunkannya kembali 7 bulan kemudian setelah tekanan inflasi mereda. Namun untuk kali ini, bank sentral memutuskan untuk mempertahankan level tingkat suku bunga tinggi lebih lama dan menjaga nilai tukar USD/IDR dalam upaya BI untuk mengatasi isu current account deficit yang melebar. Dibandingkan dengan tahun 2008, pada tahun 2013 lalu Bank Indonesia telah meningkatkan BI Rate sebesar 175bp. 2
JUNE 2014
Surviving the Period of Uncertainty After the stormy second half of 2013, the rupiah started to show signs of recovery in 1Q14. The recovery, however, stalled as political risk related to the presidential elections escalated, with the contest turning into a neck-to-neck race between the two candidates. The rupiah’s volatility in 1H14 was higher than its average in the same period over the past 3 years.
Bertahan di Periode yang Penuh Ketidakpastian Setelah paruh kedua 2013 yang volatile, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar AS mulai menunjukkan tren pemulihan di 1Q14. Namun, pemulihan tersebut tertahan salah satunya akibat meningkatnya risiko politik terkait pemilihan presiden, yang ternyata merupakan persaingan ketat antara kedua kandidat. Dibandingkan periode yang sama di tahun-tahun sebelumnya, volatilitas rupiah di semester pertama 2014 tercatat lebih tinggi, seperti terlihat pada Exhibit 4.
Exhibit 4. USD/IDR Exchange Rate 4.00
12,500
3.50
12,000 11,500
3.00
11,000
2.50
10,500
2.00
10,000
1.50
9,500
1.00
9,000
Coefficient of Variance (LHS, smoothed)
USDIDR
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Mar-11
Dec-11
8,000
Sep-11
0.00
Jun-11
8,500
Dec-10
0.50
USDIDR monthly avg.
Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate In 6M14, both the equity and bond markets showed improving performance. As a measure of the equity market’s performance, the Jakarta Composite Index recorded a 14.1% return at the end of June 2014. As for the bond market, Danareksa’s IDR Government Bond Index, which measures the weighted average total return of the outstanding fixed rate government bond series, recorded a 6.1% total return with 1.7% capital gain.
Selama 6 bulan pertama 2014, pasar saham dan obligasi menunjukkan kinerja yang lebih baik. Sebagai acuan untuk pasar saham, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (JCI) telah mencatatkan return sebesar 14,1% pada akhir Juni 2014 dibandingkan dengan akhir tahun 2013.Sedangkan untuk pasar obligasi, Danareksa Government Bond Index, yang mengukur rata-rata terboboti dari total return seri-seri fixed rate obligasi Pemerintah yang outstanding, mencatatkan return sebesar 6,1% dengan kontribusi yamg berasal dari capital gain sebesar 1,7%.
Exhibit 5. JCI vs Danareksa Government Bond Price Index
JCI (LHS)
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
110
Jun-13
3,000
Mar-13
120
Dec-12
3,500
Sep-12
130
Jun-12
4,000
Mar-12
140
Dec-11
4,500
Sep-11
150
Jun-11
5,000
Mar-11
160
Dec-10
5,500
Danareksa Govt Bond Price Index
Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
3
JUNE 2014
Government Bonds Market: Anticipated Additional Supply The yield on the government benchmark series recorded a slight increase in 2Q14 compared to its position at the end of March 2014. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Curve also showed a similar story, as can be seen in Exhibit 6. After exhibiting a downward shift in 1Q14, the yield curve became slightly steeper in 2Q14 – reflecting rising yields of long tenor government bond series. Meanwhile, the Government announced its revised budget (APBNP 2014) which added another IDR59.8 trillion to the gross issuances needed in 2014. However, with the front-loading strategy deployed by the government since earlier this year, the securities financing realization at the end of June 2014 still surpassed 55% despite the additional target. At the end of June 2014, the Government had issued IDR248.9 trillion of government securities or 57.9% of the total 2014 target. Exhibit 6. Government Benchmark Series Yields
Exhibit 7. Danareksa IDR Government Bond Yield Curve 10.00%
Benchmark SUN 5yrs Benchmark SUN 10yrs Benchmark SUN 15yrs Benchmark SUN 20yrs
Pasar Obligasi Pemerintah : Tambahan Supply yang telah diantisipasi Yield dari seri benchmark obligasi Pemerintah sedikit meningkat di 2Q14 dibandingkan dengan posisinya di akhir Maret 2014. Yield Curve Obligasi Pemerintah turut memperlihatkan hal yang serupa, seperti terlihat di Exhibit 6. Setelah mengalami downward shift di 1Q14, yield curve menjadi lebih curam di 2Q14, menggambarkan kenaikan yield untuk tenor panjang di antara seri-seri obligasi Pemerintah. Selain itu, terdapat tambahan target penerbitan obligasi Pemerintah sebesar IDR59,8 triliun pada APBNP 2014. Namun dengan strategi front-loading yang telah diterapkan Pemerintah sejak awal tahun, realisasi pembiayaan pada akhir Juni 2014 masih melebihi 55% walau terdapat tambahan target. Pada akhir Juni 2014, Pemerintah telah menerbitkan IDR248,9 triliun SBN atau 57,9% dari total target penerbitan di tahun 2014.
9.00%
9.50% 9.00% 8.50%
8.00% 7.00% 6.00%
8.00% 7.50% 7.00% 6.50%
Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14
5.00% 4.00%
30-Dec-13 28-Mar-14 30-Jun-14
6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 0
Source : Bloomberg
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source : Danareksa Estimate
Exhibit 8. Government Financing Realization In IDR million APBN 2014 APBNP 2014 Changes Realization as Percentage to Percentage to 30 Jun 2014 APBN 2014 APBNP 2014 Govt. Securities Net Govt. Securities Maturing in 2014 Issuance Need 2014
205,068,831 165,292,745 370,361,576
264,983,700 165,199,045 430,182,745
59,914,869 -93,700 59,821,169
158,419,098 90,554,582 248,973,680
77.25 54.78 67.22
59.78 54.82 57.88
Source : MoF
4
JUNE 2014
Domestic IDR Corporate Bond Market: More Maturing Bonds, Less Issuances Although the government bonds yield that is used as the benchmark for corporate bonds has still not yet returned to its level before the surge in yields in 2013, the yield was relatively stable in the first few weeks of 2Q14. With the Government bonds yield stable, several companies started to make use of the domestic IDR corporate bonds market again. Although the amount of maturing bonds still exceeded the amount of newly-issued corporate bonds, the gap has now started to narrow. As of June 2014, the total amount of corporate bonds issued in 2014 had reached IDR22.0 trillion, or slightly less than the IDR23.6 trillion of maturing bonds. The y-o-y growth rate in outstanding IDR corporate bonds is highly correlated to the y-o-y GDP growth rate. This is because on the back of the downturn in corporate bond issuances, companies had less funds to undertake business expansion, which, in turn, resulted in slower economic growth. Looking at the historical data from 4Q07 to 2Q14, lower yoy growth in outstanding corporate bonds is accompanied by weaker GDP growth.
Pasar Obligasi Korporasi Domestik : Jatuh Tempo Melampaui Penerbitan Walau yield obligasi Pemerintah yang digunakan sebagai acuan belum kembali ke level awal tahun 2013, yield cenderung stabil selama minggu-minggu pertama kuartal 2 tahun 2014. Dengan stabilnya yield obligasi Pemerintah, beberapa perusahaan mulai masuk kembali di pasar perdana obligasi korporasi Indonesia. Walau jumlah obligasi yang jatuh tempo lebih besar dari penerbitan obligasi baru, selisih antara keduanya mulai menyempit. Per Juni 2014, total penerbitan obligasi korporasi telah mencapai IDR22,0 triliun, sedikit lebih rendah dari oblligasi jatuh tempo sebear IDR23,6 triliun. Pertumbuhan outstanding obligasi korporasi berkorelasi kuat dengan pertumbuhan GDP. Hal ini dikarenakan ketika outstanding obligasi korporasi turun, perusahaan secara umum akan memiliki lebih sedikit dana untuk ekspansi bisnis, sehingga kontribusi terhadap laju pertumbuhan berkurang. Berdasarkan data historical dari 4Q07 hingga 2Q14, laju pertumbuhan obligasi korporasi yang lebih lambat juga akan diiringi oleh pertumbuhan GDP yang lebih lambat.
Exhibit 9. Domestic IDR Corporate Bond Market: More Maturing Bonds, Less Issuance Month
Total F inancial Company Banking Teleco Others Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Maturing Issued Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds Bonds
2014-01 2,502 0 569 0 500 0 0 0 1,433 0 2014-02 1,017 2,250 741 600 276 0 0 0 0 1,650 2014-03 3,224 2,982 2,251 2,982 973 0 0 0 0 0 2014-04 5,019 3,140 4,831 2,390 0 0 0 0 188 750 2014-05 4,651 3,100 1,826 2,100 950 1,000 1,630 0 245 0 2014-06 7,174 10,561 1,260 1,811 3,017 4,000 0 0 2,897 4,750 2014-07 3,144 2,267 505 0 372 2014-08 325 0 0 0 325 2014-09 400 400 0 0 0 2014-10 4,441 2,272 1,200 0 969 2014-11 2,851 1,351 0 0 1,500 2014-12 7,636 1,771 2,997 728 2,140 YTD 23,586 22,033 11,478 9,883 5,716 1,000 1,630 0 4,763 7,150 Total 42,383 22,033 19,539 9,883 10,418 5,000 2,358 0 10,068 7,150 Source : MoF - DMO Exhibit 10. Outstanding Corporate Bonds vs GDP 50%
8.00%
40%
7.00% 6.00%
30%
5.00%
20%
4.00% 10%
3.00%
0%
2.00%
corp bond outstanding yoy
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
gdp_constant_yoy (RHS)
Sep-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
0.00%
Jun-07
1.00%
-20%
Sep-07
-10%
MA(2) of corp bond outstanding growth
Source : KSEI, BPS
5
JUNE 2014
Secondary Market Activity: Boosted by the Auctions Over the last three years, outstanding government and corporate bonds have continued to grow strongly. However, the secondary market activity did not show a similar trend, especially for the corporate bonds. As seen in Exhibit 11 below, the turnover of corporate bonds within the observed period remained stable until the market entered a bearish period, when it started to decline, indicating weaker trading activity. For government bonds, turnover has tended to increase during bullish periods. In 2012-early 2013, the government bonds turnover declined because of the relatively low government bond yields induced a large amount of corporate bond issuances, which offered more attractive yields than those on government bonds.
Aktivitas Pasar Sekunder: Terdorong oleh Lelang Selama tiga tahun terakhir, outstanding obligasi pemerintah dan korporasi telah berkembang pesat. Namun aktivititas pasar sekunder dari keduanya cenderung tidak mengiringi pertumbuhan tersebut, terutama untuk obligasi korporasi. Seperti terlihat pada Exhibit 11 di bawah, turnover obligasi korporasi cenderung stabil hingga pasar memasuki periode bearish, mengindikasikan aktivitas perdagangan yang menurun. Sedangkan untuk obligasi Pemerintah, turnover cenderung meningkat ketika periode bullish. Selama tahun 2012 – awal 2013, turnover obligasi Pemerintah cenderung turun karena yield obligasi pemerintah yang relatif rendah memicu peningkatan penerbitan obligasi korporasi, yang menawarkan yield yang lebih atraktif dibandingkan obligasi Pemerintah.
Exhibit 11. Secondary Market Activity Government Secondary Market Activity
Corporate Secondary Market Activity 250.00
0.00
0.00
Outstanding (IDR Trillion) (LHS)
18.00 16.00
200.00
14.00 12.00
150.00
10.00 8.00
100.00
6.00 4.00
Outstanding (IDR Trillion) (LHS)
Trade Volume (IDR trillion)
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Mar-11
2.00 Dec-10
Mar-11
Dec-10
0.00
Jun-14
50.00
Mar-14
50.00
Dec-13
200.00 Jun-13
100.00
Sep-13
400.00
Mar-13
150.00
Dec-12
600.00
Jun-12
200.00
Sep-12
800.00
Mar-12
250.00
Dec-11
1,000.00
Jun-11
300.00
Sep-11
1,200.00
0.00
Trade Volume (IDR trillion)
Source : IDX, KSEI Exhibit 12. Secondary Market Activity 3.00
10.00
2.50
9.00 8.00
2.00
7.00 1.50 6.00 1.00
5.00
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
3.00
Jun-11
0.00
Mar-11
4.00
Dec-10
0.50
Bullish
Sideway
Bearish
Gov't Bond Turnover (LHS)
Corp Bond Turnover (LHS)
Danareksa Gov't Bond Yield Index
Source : IDX, KSEI, Danareksa Estimate
6
JUNE 2014
Indonesia’s IDR Domestic Bond Market: A Journey Into the Wild Despite currency depreciation and capital losses from holding IDR denominated bonds (both corporate and Government bonds), foreign holdings continued to increase in the first half of 2014. Foreign holdings in IDR tradable government securities have continued to reach record highs. As of June 2014, foreign holdings in government securities stood at IDR403.6 trillion or 35.7% of the total amount outstanding. As a proportion of the total outstanding government securities, foreign holdings are close to their highest ever level in the last decade of 36.04% reached on 12 September 2011. Meanwhile, as new issuances of corporate bonds have started to take place, foreign holdings rose to IDR17.2 trillion at the end of June 2014 or 7.83% of the total outstanding amount.
Pasar Obligasi Rupiah Indonesia : A Journey into the Wild Terlepas dari depresiasi nilai tukar dan capital loss dari obligasi berdenominasi Rupiah, kepemilikan investor asing masih terus meningkat selama semester pertama 2014. Kepemilikan asing di SBN Rupiah yang dapat diperdagangkan terus mencetak rekor tertinggi. Per akhir Juni 2014, kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah mencapai IDR403,6 triliun atau 35,7% dari total outstanding. Secara proporsi, kepemilikan asing mendekati level tertinggi yang pernah dicapai dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir di 36,04% yang dicapai pada 12 September 2011. Sementara itu, kepemilikan asing di obligasi korporasi kembali meningkat seiring dengan penerbitan baru. Per Juni 2014, kepemilikan asing di obligasi korporasi telah mencapai IDR17,2 triliun atau 7,83% dari total outstanding.
Exhibit 13. Foreign Participation in Domestic IDR Bond Market Government Bonds
36.0% 35.0% 34.0% 33.5% 33.0% 32.0%
21-Jan-14 31-Jan-14 10-Feb-14 20-Feb-14 2-Mar-14 12-Mar-14 22-Mar-14 1-Apr-14 11-Apr-14 21-Apr-14 1-May-14 11-May-14 21-May-14 31-May-14 10-Jun-14 20-Jun-14 30-Jun-14 10-Jul-14
32.5%
Foreign (RHS)
17.0 16.0
7.5%
15.0
7.0%
IDR Trillion
34.5%
Corporate Bonds
8.0%
14.0 13.0
6.5%
12.0
6.0%
11.0 10.0
5.5% 5.0%
IDR Trillion
35.5%
410 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310
9.0 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
36.5%
Foreign (RHS)
Foreign (%)
8.0
Foreign (%)
Source : Danareksa Estimate Government bond issuances are still within its targeted framework, and from the amount left to be issued, the Government will issue IDR96 trillion of SBN (excl. the retail series and foreign currency series) in 3Q14. Looking forward, uncertainty should decline as the new president will soon be elected, although several issues still need to be addressed such as the monetary and fiscal policies.
Penerbitan obligasi pemerintah masih sesuai dengan target mereka, dan dari jumlah yang tersisa untuk penerbitan tahun 2014, Pemerintah akan menerbitkan IDR96 triliun SBN (di luar seri ritel dan seri mata uang asing) pada 3Q14. Kedepannya, ketidakpastian yang disebabkan oleh pemilu akan menurun, walau beberapa isu masih harus diperhatikan, terutama mengenai kebijakan moneter dan fiskal.
Exhibit 14. Government and Corporate Bond Issuance Target In IDR Trillion
2011
2012
2013
2014F
1H13
1H14
Government Securities Total Outstanding (eqiv. in IDR tn)* 943.02 1,120.96 1,426.19 1,666.38 1,188.04 1,541.21 Growth (%) 19% 27% 17% 30% New Issuances 193.60 252.42 322.72 430.18 145.56 248.97 Mature & Buyback (83.55) (93.48) (99.98) (165.20) (50.62) (90.55) Corporate Bonds Total Outstanding 148.18 186.49 207.93 217.95 203.93 206.37 Growth (%) 26% 11% 5% 1% New Issuances 45.23 69.29 52.03 51.04 34.54 22.03 Mature & Buyback (12.29) (30.97) (30.60) (41.01) (17.11) (23.59) Net Issuance Government Securities 110.05 158.94 222.74 264.98 94.94 158.42 Corporate Bond 32.94 38.32 21.43 10.02 17.43 (1.55) Source : MoF, IDX, KSEI, Danareksa Estimate
7
JUNE 2014
Several issues that need to be closely watched are the current account deficit, trade balance, and USD/IDR exchange rate. In an effort to keep the current account deficit within a tolerable range, Bank Indonesia has restricted Rupiah appreciation in order to boost exports and reduce imports. Furthermore, the benchmark reference rate, or BI Rate, has been maintained at 7.50% because brisker economic growth might induce higher imports. As a consequence, however, the demand for credit has declined sharply as reflected in falling corporate bond issuances, which, in turn, have curtailed economic growth. In our base scenario, we expect the Rupiah/USD exchange rate to reach between IDR11,450 – IDR11,650 per USD at the end of 2014 with y-o-y inflation of 5.02%. Under the base scenario, we expect the 10-year IDR denominated Government Bonds Yield Curve to be between 7.90% - 8.40% at the end of December 2014.
Beberapa isu yang harus diperhatikan adalah current account deficit, trade balance, dan nilai tukar USD/IDR. Dalam upaya menjaga current account deficit di kisaran yang dapat ditoleransi, Bank Indonesia telah menjaga nilai tukar Rupiah dari terapresiasi terlalu kuat untuk mendorong ekspor dan mengurangi impor. Lebih jauh lagi, tingkat suku bunga acuan BI Rate masih ditahan di level 7,50% karena pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih cepat berpotensi untuk mendorong peningkatan impor. Namun konsekuensinya, permintaan untuk kredit mengalami penurunana signifikan yang tergambar dari berkurangnya penerbitan obligasi korporasi, yang pada gilirannya berpotensi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada base scenario yang kami gunakan, kami memperkirakan nilai tukar USD/IDR pada akhir tahun 2014 akan berada di kisaran IDR11.450 – IDR11.650 per dolar AS dengan laju inflasi tahunan di 5,02%. Dengan asumsi base scenario, kami memperkirakan Yield Curve Obligasi Pemerintah dalam mata uang Rupiah untuk tenor 10-tahun akan berada di kisaran 7,90%-8,40% pada akhir Desember 2014.
Exhibit 15. End of Year Outlook
Exhibit 16. Danareksa Government Bond Yield Curve Projection 9.50%
10.00
9.00%
9.50
8.50% 8.00%
Pessimistic
Optimistic
Source : Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate
8.50
7.00%
8.00
6.50%
7.50
6.00%
7.00
5.50%
6.50
5.00% Dec-14
Jun-14
Base
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Dec-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
7.50%
9.00
SUN 10Y
6.00 0
5
15
20
25
30
EoY 2014 - Pessimistic 27-Jun-14
Source : Danareksa Estimate
Variables 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-13 30-Jun-14 USDIDR Inflation BI Rate 10Y SUN Yield Curve
10
EoY 2014 - Optimistic EoY 2014 - Base 31-Dec-13
Dec-14 Base Optimistic Pessimistic
9,069 9,793 12,171 11,886 11,574 10,657 12,557 3.78 3.65 8.08 6.70 5.02 5.02 5.86 6.00 5.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.00 8.00 6.29 5.47 8.68 8.40 8.08 7.40 9.24
Source : Danareksa Estimate
8
JUNE 2014
Better market performance The domestic bonds market, as reflected by Danareksa Composite Bond Index, showed a weaker performance in July 2014, with a positive return of 0.91% after recording a positive return of 0.33% in the previous month. The capital gain was negative 0.89% while the return from coupon payments was 1.00%.
Kinerja pasar membaik Pasar obligasi domestik, seperti digambarkan oleh Danareksa Composite Bond Index, menunjukkan peningkatan kinerja selama Juni 2014, mencatatkan return positif 0,91% dibandingkan dengan return bulan Mei sebesar positif 0,33%. Return dari capital gain sebesar negatif 0,89%, sedangkan return diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon sebesar positif 1,00%.
Higher return from short tenor bonds Returns on bonds with tenors less than 3 years were greater than the returns on long tenor bonds in June 2014. For the short tenors, the return was positive 0.53% while the long tenors gave a negative return of 0.45%.
Return Obligasi tenor pendek lebih tinggi Return obligasi bertenor pendek (obligasi dengan tenor kurang dari 3 tahun) lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan obligasi bertenor panjang pada Juni 2014. Return dari masingmasing tenor sebesar positif 0,53% untuk tenor pendek dan negatif 0,45% untuk tenor panjang.
Corporate bonds performed slightly better Corporate bonds showed better performance than government bonds. For government bonds, the return reached negative 0.51% while for corporate bonds the return was 0.64%. The capital loss for government bonds was 1.22% while corporate bonds recorded slightly better performance with only 0.11% of capital loss. The return from coupon payments on corporate bonds was also higher than that of the government bonds, recorded at 0.75% v.s. 0.71%.
Performa obligasi korporasi lebih baik Obligasi korporasi memberikan kinerja lebih baik dari obligasi Pemerintah tercermin dari return obligasi pemerintah sebesar negatif 0,51% dan obligasi korporasi sebesar positif 0,64%. Capital gain obligasi Pemerintah sebesar negatif 1,22% sedangkan obligasi korporasi sebesar negatif 0,11%. Untuk return yang diperoleh dari pembayaran kupon, obligasi korporasi lebih tinggi dari obligasi pemerintah yaitu sebesar 0,75% v.s. 0,71%.
More active trading in the secondary market Total trading in the secondary market during June 2014, slumped to IDR228.11 trillion. Government bonds trading were recorded at IDR216.92 trillion, or up from IDR 171.67 trillion in the previous month. Corporate bonds trading, meanwhile, went up to IDR11.19 trillion from IDR9.75 trillion in the previous month.
Perdagangan sekunder obligasi meningkat Total volume transaksi obligasi di pasar sekunder mencapai Rp228,11 triliun selama Juni 2014. Perdagangan obligasi pemerintah tercatat sebesar Rp216,92 triliun, naik dari Rp171,67 triliun di bulan sebelumnya. Perdagangan obligasi korporasi naik menjadi Rp 11,19 triliun dari Rp9,75 triliun di bulan sebelumnya.
Exhibit 17. Changes in the yield curve
Exhibit 18. Average monthly trading
0.25%
300,000
0.20%
250,000
0.15%
200,000
Avg Monthly Transaction for Corporate Bonds : IDR10,337. trillion Avg Monthly Transaction for Governemnt Bonds : IDR168,137.81 trillion
150,000
0.10%
100,000 0.05% 50,000 1 year 2 year 3 year 4 year 5 year 6 year 7 year 8 year 9 year 10 year 11 year 12 year 13 year 14 year 15 year 16 year 17 year 18 year 19 year 20 year 21 year 22 year 23 year 24 year 25 year 26 year 27 year 28 year 29 year 30 year 31 year
0.00%
Source : Bloomberg
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
Source : Danareksa Estimate
9
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review New Issuance of Corporate Bonds in Jun 2014 No. Bond ID Bond Name 1 MFIN01ACN2 2 MFIN01BCN2 3 BEXI02ACN1 4 BEXI02BCN1 5 BEXI02CCN1 6 BEXI02DCN1 7 APLN01CN2 8 SMII01A 9 SMII01B 10 INDF07 11 TAXI01 12 WOMF01ACN1 13 WOMF01BCN1 14 AMRT01CN1
Issued Date
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri D Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land Tahap II Tahun 2014 dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Obligasi I Sarana Multi Infrastruktur 2014 Seri A Obligasi I Sarana Multi Infrastruktur 2014 Seri B Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VII Tahun 2014 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Obligasi I Express Trasindo Utama Tahun 2014 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I WOM Finance Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I WOM Finance Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tahap I Tahun 2014
Listed Maturity Coupon Rating Amount Date Date Rate (%) (IDRbn)
3-Jun-14 4-Jun-14 13-Jun-15
11.00%
idA
147
3-Jun-14 4-Jun-14
3-Jun-17
12.00%
idA
64
5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14 15-Jun-15
8.25%
idAAA
803
5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14
5-Jun-16
8.50%
idAAA
134
5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14
5-Jun-17
9.25%
idAAA
1594
5-Jun-14 6-Jun-14
5-Jun-19
9.75%
idAAA
1469
6-Jun-14 9-Jun-14
6-Jun-19
12.25%
idA
750
11-Jun-14 12-Jun-14 11-Jun-17 11-Jun-14 12-Jun-14 11-Jun-19 13-Jun-14 16-Jun-14 13-Jun-19
9.60% 10.00% 10.13%
idAA+ idAA+ idAA+
100 900 2000
24-Jun-14 25-Jun-14 24-Jun-19 25-Jun-14 26-Jun-14 5-Jul-15
12.50% 10.25%
idA AA(idn)
1000 397
25-Jun-14 26-Jun-14 25-Jun-17
11.00%
AA(idn)
203
26-Jun-14 27-Jun-14 26-Jun-17
10.50%
AA-(idn)
1000
Total Issuance Jun 2014
10,561
Source: IDX
Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Jun 2014 No.
Bond ID
Bond Name
Maturity Date
Rating
Amount
Rate (%)
Coupon
(IDR bn)
1 BEXI01ACN3 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank I Dengan Tingkat 02-Jun-14 6.15 idAAA Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri A 2 OTMA07D Obligasi Oto Multiartha VII Tahun 2010 Seri D 08-Jun-14 10.37 idAA 3 BFIN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap I 2012 Seri B 12-Jun-14 8.00 A(idn) 4 MEDC02B Obligasi Medco Energi International II Tahun 2009 Seri B 17-Jun-14 14.25 idAA- 5 BDKI06A Obligais VI Bank DKI Tahun 2011 Seri A 17-Jun-14 9.25 idA+ 6 BEXI04C Obligasi Bank Ekspor Indonesia IV Tahun 2009 Seri C 18-Jun-14 12.00 idAAA 7 INDF05 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur V Tahun 2009 18-Jun-14 13.00 idAA+ 8 PNBN02C Bank Panin II Tahun 2007 Seri C 19-Jun-14 11.00 idAA 9 APEX02B Obligasi Apexindo Pratama Duta II Tahun 2009 Seri B 19-Jun-14 15.00 idA 10 BCAF04D Obligasi BCA Finance IV Tahun 2011 Seri D 22-Jun-14 8.90 idAA+ 11 BCAF01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga 24-Jun-14 6.50 idAA+/AAA(idn) Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 12 BTPN01ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan Tingkat Bunga 28-Jun-14 9.25 AA-(idn) Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri A Total Jun 2014
1920 200 110 986.5 125 607 1610 200 300 200 750 165 7,174
Source: IDX
10
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review Maturity of Corporate Bonds in Jul 2014 No.
Bond ID
Bond Name
Rating
Amount
Rate (%)
(IDR bn)
1 PPGD13A1 Obligasi XIII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2009 Seri A1 01-Jul-14 11.68 idAA+ 2 PPGD13A2 Obligasi XIII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2009 Seri A2 01-Jul-14 10.00 idAA+ 3 BJBR06B Obligasi VI Bank Jabar Banten Tahun 2009 Seri B 10-Jul-14 12.50 idAA- 4 BSEC02A Obligasi MNC Securities II Tahun 2011 Seri A 05-Jul-14 12.50 idBBB 5 TAFS01C Obligasi Toyota ASTRA Financial Services I Tahun 2011 Seri C 07-Jul-14 9.50 idAA- 6 BFIN04C Obligasi BFI Finance Indonesia III Tahun 2011 Seri C 08-Jul-14 11.00 A(idn) 7 BNTT01B Obligasi I Bank NTT Tahun 2011 Seri B 08-Jul-14 9.90 idA- 8 TRAC03B Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri B 15-Jul-14 7.75 idA+ 9 MFIN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandala Multifinance Tahap I 2012 Seri B 10-Jul-14 9.00 idA 10 ASDF02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat 07-Jul-14 6.75 idAA+ Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A 11 BPFI01A Obligasi Batavia Prosperindo Finance I Tahun 2013 Dengan 13-Jul-14 9.25 idBBB Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A 12 PPGD02ACN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Pegadaian Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri A 14-Jul-14 7.25 idAA+ Total Jul 2014
350 100 400 41 484 228 105 331 5 650
Maturity Date
Coupon
20 430 3,144
Source: IDX
11
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID
Bond Name
Maturity Rating Coupon Date
Last Trade
Last Last Vol Price YTM (IDRbn)
Freq
Maturity < 3 years 1 STTP01BCN1 2 BEXI02CCN1 3 TUFI01ACN2 4 FIFA01BCN3 5 BTPN02ACN1 6 ASDF02CCN1 7 ASDF02BCN3 8 PRTL01 9 BPFI01B 10 SSMM01A 11 JPFA01CN1 12 ADMF01CCN1 13 CTRR01A 14 APLN01B 15 ADMF02BCN3 16 BEXI04D 17 BTPN01ACN2 18 TAFS03B 19 PNBN05 20 ADMF02CCN1 21 BCAF01BCN2 22 BMRI01 23 MEDC03 24 FIFA01BCN2 25 BNII01ACN2 26 DNRK05B 27 TAFS01BCN1 28 BCAF01BCN3 29 NISP01CCN1 30 BEXI02BCN1
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Siantar Top Tahap I 2014 Seri B 8-Apr-17 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-17 Tahun 2014 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mandiri Tunas Finance dengan 23-May-17 Tingkat Bunga 10,70% Tahap II Tahun 2014 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 14-Mar-17 Dengan Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Bank BTPN Dengan Tingkat 4-Jul-16 Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahunu 2013 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan 27-Jun-16 Tingkat Bungan Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance dengan 4-Apr-17 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Protelindo I Tahun 2014 28-Feb-17 Obligasi Batavia Prosperindo Finance I Tahun 2013 3-Jul-15 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi Sumberdaya Sewatama I Tahun 2012 Seri A 30-Nov-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap I Tahun 2012 12-Jan-17 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Adira Dinamika Multi Finance 16-Dec-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2011 Seri C Obligasi I Ciputra Residence Tahun 2014 Dengan 2-Apr-17 Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A Obligasi I Agung Podomoro Land Tahun 2011 Seri B 25-Aug-16 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap III 14-May-17 Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Bank Ekspor Indonesia IV Tahun 2009 Seri D 18-Jun-16 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTPN dengan Tingkat 3-Aug-15 Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2012 Seri A Obligasi Toyota Astra Financial Serv ices III 2013 Seri B 17-May-16 Obligasi Bank Panin IV Tahun 2010 9-Nov-15 Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Adira Finance Tahap I 1-Mar-16 Tahun 2013 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat 14-Jun-16 Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Mandiri I Tahun 2009 11-Dec-16 Obligasi Medco Energi Internasional III Tahun 2012 19-Jun-17 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Federal International Finance 4-Apr-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 2012 Seri A 31-Oct-15 Obligasi V Danareksa Tahun 2010 Seri B 11-Jan-16 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Toyota Astra Financial services 13-Feb-17 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BCA Finance Dengan Tingkat 27-Mar-17 Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2014 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I OCBC NISP Tahap I Tahun 2013 19-Feb-16 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-16 Tahun 2014 Seri B
idA idAAA
11.40 9.25
19-Jun-14 100.03 11.38 558.00 50.00 26-Jun-14 100.15 9.19 490.50 5.00
idAA
10.70
30-Jun-14 100.60 10.45 355.00 13.00
idAA+/AAA(idn) 10.50
27-Jun-14 100.23 10.40 354.00 44.00
AA-(idn)
7.75
30-Jun-14
99.99
7.75 242.00
4.00
idAA+
7.75
13-Jun-14
96.98
9.39 186.00
5.00
AAA(Idn)
10.50
30-Jun-14 100.37 10.34 182.00 10.00
AA-(idn) idBBB
10.50 9.50
25-Jun-14 100.35 10.35 128.20 30-Jun-14 104.04 5.36 120.00
idA idA/A+(idn) idAA+
8.60 9.90 9.00
30-Jun-14 98.50 30-Jun-14 103.01 13-Jun-14 98.70
4.00 5.00
9.74 109.00 8.00 8.57 102.50 13.00 9.59 94.20 19.00
idA
11.40
13-Jun-14 100.00 11.40
90.00
idA idAA+
11.00 10.50
19-Jun-14 100.32 10.83 26-Jun-14 100.12 10.45
72.80 11.00 72.50 11.00
idAAA AA-(idn)
12.75 7.75
24-Jun-14 106.35 20-Jun-14 98.60
71.00 62.00
AAA(Idn) idAA/AA(idn) idAA+
7.60 9.00 7.85
26-Jun-14 23-Jun-14 30-Jun-14
9.21 9.07
96.82 9.46 99.75 9.19 96.35 10.25
8.00 5.00
61.00 11.00 56.00 4.00 52.00 7.00
idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.50
25-Jun-14 101.38
idAA+ idAA-
4-Jun-14 104.30 9.90 25-Jun-14 96.00 10.32
48.00 8.00 47.41 23.00
idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.75
27-Jun-14
96.47
9.95
46.00
7.00
idAA+/AAA(idn) 7.60 idA 10.20 AAA(Idn) 10.50
20-Jun-14 99.25 12-Jun-14 100.49 19-Jun-14 101.35
8.18 9.86 9.91
40.62 40.00 38.00
3.00 5.00 8.00
idAAA
10.00
26-Jun-14 100.65
9.73
37.00
1.00
idAAA
7.40
12-Jun-14
97.00
9.34
30.00
6.00
idAAA
8.50
10-Jun-14 100.00
8.50
30.00
2.00
11.85 8.75
6.74
3.00
50.00
8.00
Source: PLTO IDX
12
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity of Less than 3 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID
Bond Name
Maturity Rating Coupon Date
Last Trade
Last Last Vol Price YTM (IDRbn)
Freq
Maturity < 3 years 31 JPFA01CN2 32 SSIA01A 33 ASDF01BCN3 34 BIMF01B 35 ASDF02BCN2 36 TRAC03C 37 INDF06 38 IMFI01BCN2 39 PPLN12A 40 BIIF02A 41 ADMF02BCN2 42 SANF01BCN1 43 SMKMYOR02 44 ASDF01CCN1 45 IMFI01CCN2 46 BFIN01CCN2 47 BBTN12 48 SMKBSBR01 49 IMFI01CCN1 50 BNII01BCN1
Obligasi Berkelanjutan I JAPFA Tahap II Tahun 2012 Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi I Bima Multi Finance Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Astra Sedaya Finance dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A Obligasi Serasi Autoraya III Tahun 2012 Seri C Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VI Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri B Obligasi PLN XII Tahun 2010 Seri A Obligasi II BII Finance Tahun 2013 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan Ii Adira Finance Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SAN Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2013 Seri B Sukuk Mudharabah II Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Teteap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I BFI Finance Indonesia Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri C Bank BTN XII Tahun 2006 Sukuk Mudharabah I Bank Nagari Tahun 2010 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Indomobil Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I 2011 Seri A
1-Feb-17 6-Nov-15 22-Feb-16
idA/A+(idn) idA idAA+
9.66 7.67 6.47
30.00 26.00 25.70
6.00 6.00 2.00
9-Jan-16 26-Nov-16
(Idr)BBB 11.65 idAA+/AAA(idn) 9.50
18-Jun-14 13-Jun-14
83.86 24.40 99.90 9.54
24.00 24.00
4.00 6.00
5-Jul-15 31-May-17
idA+ idAA+
8.30 7.25
13-Jun-14 30-Jun-14
98.30 10.00 94.60 9.39
22.00 21.40
4.00 7.00
8-May-16
idA
8.25
19-Jun-14
96.00 10.61
20.57
5.00
8-Jul-15 19-Jun-16
idAA+ AA+ (idn)
9.70 7.75
20-Jun-14 101.40 12-Jun-14 96.50
8.29 9.68
20.00 20.00
4.00 2.00
24-Oct-16
idAA+
10.50
12-Jun-14 101.50
9.78
20.00
5.00
25-Sep-16
idAA-/AA(idn)
9.75
25-Jun-14 100.00
9.75
19.50
2.00
9-May-17 21-Feb-17
idAA-(sy) idAA+
0.00 8.60
27-Jun-14 27-Jun-14
96.42 98.00
1.27 9.46
18.00 12.00 17.70 26.00
8-May-17
idA
8.50
26-Jun-14
95.75 10.23
16.00
2.00
19-Feb-16
A+(idn)
9.00
5-Jun-14
99.09
15.00
3.00
19-Sep-16 13-Jan-16 11-May-16
idAA idA(sy) idA
12.75 0.00 8.25
6-Dec-16
9.90 8.30 7.75
idAA+/AAA(idn) 8.75
12-Jun-14 100.54 25-Jun-14 100.80 26-Jun-14 101.99
9.58
10-Jun-14 106.35 9.61 30-Jun-14 100.45 -0.29 27-Jun-14 96.25 10.48
14.00 7.00 13.00 5.00 12.04 19.00
30-Jun-14
10.00
98.97
9.23
1.00
Source: PLTO IDX
13
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review
Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity 3 - 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID
Bond Name
Maturity Rating Coupon Date
Last Trade
Last Last Vol Price YTM (IDRbn)
Freq
Maturity > 3 < 5 yrs 1 AKRA01A Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri A 21-Dec-17 2 SSIA01B Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 6-Nov-17 3 APLN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land Tahap II 6-Jun-19 Tahun 2014 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 4 BEXI02DCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan Indonesia Eximbank II Tahap I 5-Jun-19 Tahun 2014 Seri D 5 BSDE01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai Tahap II 5-Jun-18 Tahun 2013 6 INDF07 Obligasi Indofood Sukses Makmur VII Tahun 2014 13-Jun-19 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 7 BNGA01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I 30-Oct-17 Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 8 PNBN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 20-Dec-17 9 ISAT08A Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri A 27-Jun-19 10 ROTI01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 11-Jun-18 11 BJBR07C Obligasi VII Bank Jabar Banten Tahun 2011 Seri C 9-Feb-18 12 JSMR01CCN1S Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Jasa Marga Tahap I 27-Sep-18 Tahun 2013 Seri S Seri C 13 MYOR04 Obligasi IV Mayora Indah Tahun 2012 9-May-19 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap 14 APLN02 Obligasi II Agung Podomoro Tahun 2012 15-Aug-17 15 PNBN04SB Obligasi Subordinasi Bank Panin III Tahun 2010 9-Nov-17 16 PPLN01ACN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 10-Dec-18 17 PPLN09A Obligasi PLN IX Tahun 2007 Seri A 10-Jul-17 18 MAPI01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Mitra Adiperkasa Tahap I 12-Dec-17 Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B 19 SIAISA01 Sukuk Ijarah TPS Food I Tahun 2013 5-Apr-18 20 TAXI01 Obligasi I Express Transindo Utama Tahun 2014 24-Jun-19 21 BNGA01SB Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 8-Jul-17 22 SISMRA01CN1 Sukuk Ijarah Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung 11-Dec-18 Tahap I Tahun 2013 23 PPGD12A Obligasi XII Perum Pegadaian Tahun 2007 Seri A 4-Sep-17 24 MEDC01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Medco Energi Internasional 19-Dec-17 Tahap I Tahun 2012 25 SMRA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Summarecon Agung Tahap I 2013 11-Dec-18 26 GIAA01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia Tahap I 2013 5-Jul-18 27 APLN01CN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Agung Podomoro Land 27-Jun-18 Tahap I Tahun 2013 28 BNII01BCN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 31-Oct-17 Tahun 2012 Seri B 29 BNII01SBCN1 Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap I 2011 6-Dec-18
idAA- idA idA
8.40 9.30 12.25
24-Jun-14 109.04 5.53 560.00 26.00 25-Jun-14 123.54 2.04 556.00 32.00 24-Jun-14 101.80 11.76 441.20 271.00
idAAA
9.75
26-Jun-14 100.60
idAA-
8.38
25-Jun-14
idAA+
10.13
9.59 286.00
4.00
93.27 10.48 216.00 34.00
30-Jun-14 100.12 10.09 160.00
5.00
idAAA/AAA(idn) 7.75
30-Jun-14
idAA idAA+ idAA- idAA- idAA
8.15 8.63 8.00 10.40 8.90
25-Jun-14 96.18 9.45 101.00 11.00 26-Jun-14 94.50 10.04 99.72 23.00 19-Jun-14 93.40 10.03 82.00 13.00 20-Jun-14 102.70 9.51 80.00 7.00 25-Jun-14 96.00 10.07 60.00 5.00
idAA-
8.50
25-Jun-14
92.50 10.44 120.50 14.00
92.10 10.59
57.00
3.00
idA 9.38 idAA-/A+(idn) 10.50 idAAA 9.00 idAA+ 10.40 idAA- 8.45
23-Jun-14 98.00 10.12 23-Jun-14 98.17 11.15 4-Jun-14 98.80 9.33 12-Jun-14 101.84 9.70 16-Jun-14 94.83 10.23
49.40 46.00 48.65 9.00 45.00 9.00 38.00 6.00 30.00 6.00
idA-(sy) idA AA(idn) idA+(sy)
10.25 12.50 11.30 9.20
27-Jun-14 99.85 10.30 30-Jun-14 103.00 11.70 30-Jun-14 99.75 11.40 27-Jun-14 102.70 8.47
28.00 14.00 22.20 33.00 20.20 5.00 18.00 8.00
idAA+ idAA-
10.03 8.80
18-Jun-14 101.65 9.42 26-Jun-14 95.50 10.36
17.00 17.00
7.00 1.00
idA+ A(idn) idA
10.85 9.25 9.25
16-Jun-14 101.15 10.52 9-Jun-14 94.72 10.87 25-Jun-14 97.40 10.05
14.00 11.00 10.85
7.00 2.00 6.00
idAA+/AAA(idn) 8.00 idAA/AA-(idn) 10.00
4-Jun-14
95.55
9.54
10.00
2.00
12-Jun-14 100.02
9.99
10.00
2.00
Source: PLTO IDX
14
JUNE 2014
Bond Market Review Transaction Activitiy in Jun 2014 for All Corporate Bonds with Maturity more than 5 Year and Total Volume of more than IDR10 billion No Bond ID
Bond Name
Maturity Rating Coupon Date
Last Trade
Last Price
Last Vol YTM (IDRbn)
Freq
Maturity > 5 yrs
1 PNBN01SBCN1Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I Tahun 2012 2 BNLI01SBCN2 Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Permata Tahap II Tahun 2012 3 PPLN01BCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PLN Tahap I Tahunu 2013 Seri B 4 BSDE01CCN1 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai Tahap I Tahun 2012 Seri C 5 ISAT08B Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B 6 BBMISMSB1CN2Sukuk Subordinasi Mudharabah Berkelanjutan I Tahap II Bank Muamalat Tahun 2013 7 BBTN01CN2 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTN Tahap II Tahun 2013 8 TLKM02B Obligasi II Telkom Tahun 2010 Seri B 9 BNII01SBCN2 Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BII Tahap II 2012 10 BBTN14 Obligasi XIV Bank BTN Tahun 2010 11 JMPD14JM10 Obligasi Jasa Marga XIV Seri JM-10
20-Dec-19
idAA-
9.40 30-Jun-14
98.73
9.70
79.50 21.00
19-Dec-19
idAA-
9.40 30-Jun-14
91.53
11.51
67.00 18.00
5-Jul-23 4-Jul-19
idAAA idA+
8.25 9-Jun-14 9.50 18-Jun-14
89.60 95.35
10.01 10.70
45.00 9.00 38.90 15.00
27-Jun-22 28-Mar-23
idAA+ idA
8.88 30-Jun-14 9.60 30-Jun-14
93.25 74.97
10.12 14.74
38.50 9.00 22.00 10.00
7.90 30-Jun-14 88.00 10.20 30-Jun-14 100.00 9.25 17-Jun-14 93.10 10.25 9-Jun-14 98.26 9.35 9-Jun-14 94.72
9.97 10.20 10.97 10.65 10.50
17.00 15.00 13.00 13.00 11.00
27-Mar-23 idAA/AA(idn) 6-Jul-20 idAAA 31-Oct-19 idAA/AA(idn) 11-Jun-20 idAA 12-Oct-20 idAA
1.00 3.00 9.00 5.00 3.00
Source: PLTO IDX
15
JUNE 2014
Appendices
16
JUNE 2014
Appendix Appendix 1. Winners and Losers in Jun 2014 TEN BEST Bonds
Current Coupon
Maturity Date
Obligasi Surya Semesta Internusa I Tahun 2012 Seri B 9.30% Obligasi Subordinasi Berkelanjutan II Bank Permata 12.00% Tahap I Tahun 2013 Obligasi Indosat VIII Tahun 2012 Seri B 8.88% Obligasi I BW Plantation Tahun 2010 10.68% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ADHI Tahap II Tahun 2013 Seri A 8.10% “Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Astra Sedaya Finance Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Tahap III Tahun 2013 Seri B 7.75% Subordinasi Berkelanjutan I Bank Panin Tahap I 2012 9.40% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I ROTI Tahap I Tahun 2013 8.00% Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank BTN Tahap II Tahun 2013 7.90% Obligasi Subordinasi III Bank OCBC NISP Tahun 2010 11.35%
6-Nov-17 24-Dec-20
550,000,000,000 860,000,000,000
A AA
0.63% 0.73%
22.82% 13.81%
23.45% 14.54%
27-Jun-22 16-Nov-15 15-Mar-18
1,500,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 125,000,000,000
AA+ A A
0.66% 0.98% 0.61%
11.04% 9.12% 8.23%
11.71% 10.09% 8.83%
22-Feb-16 20-Dec-19 11-Jun-18 27-Mar-23 30-Jun-17
1,120,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 880,000,000,000
AA+ AA- AA- AA AA
0.66% 0.71% 0.62% 0.69% 0.86%
6.52% 6.25% 6.30% 5.33% 3.91%
7.18% 6.95% 6.92% 6.02% 4.76%
Bonds Obligasi Jasa Marga XIV Seri JM-10 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bumi Serpong Damai Tahap II Tahun 2013 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I PP Tahap I Tahun 2013 Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahap I Tahun 2012 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia Tahap I Tahun 2013 Obligasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2011 Dengan Tingkat Bunga Tetap Seri B Obligasi I AKR Corporindo Tahun 2012 Seri B Obligasi Berkelanjutan I SMF Tahap II Tahun 2012 Berjamin Seri C Obligasi Subordinasi I Bank CIMB Niaga Tahun 2010 Obligasi PLN XII Tahun 2010 Seri B
Total Outstanding Rating (IDR mn)
Interest Price Total Return Return Return
TEN WORST
Current Coupon
Maturity Date
Total Outstanding Rating Interest (IDR mn) Return
Price Total Return Return
9.35% 8.38%
12-Oct-20 5-Jun-18
1,000,000,000,000 1,750,000,000,000
AA AA-
0.85% 0.82%
-8.19% -7.34% -6.77% -5.95%
8.38% 7.75%
19-Mar-18 30-Oct-17
700,000,000,000 1,400,000,000,000
A- AAA
0.79% 0.69%
-6.39% -5.60% -5.90% -5.21%
9.25%
5-Jul-18
2,000,000,000,000
A
0.84%
-5.50% -4.66%
8.30%
23-Dec-16
1,320,000,000,000
AAA
0.77%
-4.18% -3.41%
8.75% 7.55%
21-Dec-19 25-Apr-17
877,000,000,000 838,000,000,000
AA- AA
0.81% 0.69%
-3.95% -3.15% -3.59% -2.90%
11.30% 10.40%
8-Jul-17 8-Jul-22
1,380,000,000,000 1,855,000,000,000
AA AA+
0.95% 0.86%
-3.70% -2.75% -3.04% -2.18%
Appendix 2. Total Return Bond Index MoM (%) YoY (%) YTD (%) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 2012 2013 2014 Composite Governments Corporates Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property and Construction Corporate upper A- Corporate below A- up to BBB- SOE
0.91 0.89 1.00 0.33 1.33 0.00 1.63 -0.43 2.03 0.98 1.55 2.05
0.33 -0.35 0.27 -0.51 0.68 0.64 0.57 1.15 0.86 0.89 1.17 0.68 0.77 2.18 0.33 -0.40 2.14 0.20 0.65 0.68 1.60 -0.43 0.55 0.03
-5.79 -3.70 -8.08 -5.61 4.23 4.52 5.35 5.34 4.16 4.89 3.05 3.70 -1.79 -0.28 5.20 5.13 4.55 6.13 4.18 4.45 5.47 6.16 1.38 2.26
2.31 1.05 7.44 8.38 8.73 5.71 4.78 5.24 8.56 7.41 8.10 4.27
12.20 -10.14 12.52 -13.18 10.81 4.70 10.10 5.17 12.04 5.52 9.05 6.58 9.41 -1.15 10.07 6.85 13.16 6.97 10.75 4.84 12.80 -1.67 9.95 3.16
5.96 6.01 4.97 5.10 5.30 1.72 7.56 3.48 4.74 4.96 5.34 4.76
Source: Danareksa Estimates
17
JUNE 2014
Appendix Appendix 3. Danareksa Bond Index - Jun 2014 Overview
Return
Total Return per Periode
Total* Price Interest Last Last Year to Last Last 3mo 6mo Date 12mo 24mo
Broad Market Index (full maturity range)
Composit Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE
(0.35) (0.51) 0.64 1.15 0.89 0.68 2.18 (0.40) 0.20 0.68 (0.43) 0.03
(1.07) (1.22) (0.11) 0.42 0.10 0.50 1.68 (1.28) (0.61) (0.06) (1.29) (0.81)
0.71 0.71 0.75 0.73 0.80 0.18 0.50 0.88 0.81 0.74 0.85 0.84
0.88 0.65 2.33 2.06 3.11 1.86 4.66 (0.50) 4.43 2.32 2.72 2.64
5.96 6.01 4.97 5.10 5.30 1.72 7.56 3.48 4.74 4.96 5.34 4.76
(4.78) (7.97) 9.90 10.54 11.12 8.41 6.33 10.56 12.04 10.04 3.58 8.07
2.31 1.05 7.44 8.38 8.73 5.71 4.78 5.24 8.56 7.41 8.10 4.27
3.11 0.31 15.11 15.62 18.12 11.23 10.54 12.16 21.52 15.17 12.14 12.50
4.70 4.41 4.69 5.52 4.00 6.17 5.02 5.81 5.65 4.64 7.42 5.48
29.46 23.40 35.60 34.48 37.28 26.98 35.22 43.69 52.52 34.75 13.55 35.69
8.53 6.30 10.60 9.87 12.25 9.14 9.25 14.59 7.37 10.53 16.77 9.53
12.50 8.84 16.15 16.91 18.51 12.26 15.61 16.72 16.26 16.46 (6.59) 16.32
6.11 6.15 5.26 2.95 6.33 0.63 9.75 2.22 4.66 5.30 4.99 4.93
27.21 24.77 43.15 27.19 44.34 41.00 39.32 40.36 32.43 43.11 42.81 40.56
1.47 0.66 5.97 3.62 7.88 4.43 5.08 2.58 8.93 5.93 6.97 2.84
2.02 (0.06) 14.77 10.98 18.25 11.16 10.72 11.43 22.40 14.67 17.05 11.48
Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs) Composit Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE
0.53 0.37 0.63 1.25 0.22 (0.08) (0.25) 0.62 0.41 0.63 0.63 0.31
(0.13) (0.28) (0.03) 0.53 (0.56) 0.23 (0.45) (0.21) (0.44) (0.03) (0.30) (0.54)
0.66 0.65 0.66 0.72 0.78 (0.31) 0.20 0.83 0.85 0.66 0.93 0.86
2.53 1.65 3.43 2.16 5.45 1.98 3.40 2.75 2.40 3.41 5.67 7.36
Mid-term Market Index (more than 3 yrs) Composit Government Corporate Finance Banking Consumer Goods Industry Telecommunication Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation Property AAA …A A-…BBB+ SOE
(0.45) (0.55) 0.64 0.20 1.31 1.65 4.24 (1.05) 0.14 0.72 (0.72) (0.15)
(1.17) (1.27) (0.17) (0.59) 0.51 0.85 3.48 (1.95) (0.66) (0.09) (1.60) (0.97)
0.72 0.71 0.81 0.78 0.80 0.81 0.76 0.90 0.80 0.81 0.87 0.82
0.68 0.60 1.58 1.12 1.82 2.53 6.07 (1.98) 4.89 1.53 2.28 0.26
* Total return = price return + interest return
18
JUNE 2014
Appendix Appendix 4. Key Characteristics of Domestic Bonds (base year: Dec-04=100)
Total Weighted Average Average Average Average Market Return Average Coupon Modified Term Convexity Value Index YTM (%) Duration (IDR bn)
Composite 291.72 8.57 Government 280.39 8.36 Corporate 323.36 10.03 Finance 301.23 9.65 Banking 285.84 10.11 Consumer Goods Industry 308.30 10.02 Telecommunication 304.91 9.87 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 348.76 10.30 Property 345.67 9.56 AAA …A 320.81 10.00 A-…BBB+ 296.29 10.82 SOE 333.00 10.05
All Maturity Market Index 9.53 3.47 5.12 9.33 6.27 11.60 9.59 2.72 3.37 8.80 2.22 2.57 9.69 2.75 3.45 9.41 2.70 3.26 10.03 3.10 4.00 10.81 2.96 3.95 9.70 2.97 3.65 9.50 2.68 3.31 10.38 3.07 3.89 9.89 3.09 4.00
Weight Weight in Sub in Broad Index Market
15.93 40.58 9.25 6.05 9.60 8.91 12.34 11.19 10.17 9.11 10.55 11.99
903,787 779,538 124,249 17,882 51,474 6,515 8,670 16,005 9,755 119,458 4,791 44,136
100.00 86.25 13.75 14.39 41.43 5.24 6.98 12.88 7.85 96.14 3.86 35.52
100.00 86.25 13.75 1.98 5.70 0.72 0.96 1.77 1.08 13.22 0.53 4.88
4.47 5.91 4.41 5.10 3.33 6.33 4.81 4.17 4.97 4.40 4.70 4.30
92,343 37,157 55,186 16,231 19,795 3,665 3,975 6,209 2,210 54,051 1,135 17,095
100.00 40.24 59.76 29.41 35.87 6.64 7.20 11.25 4.00 97.94 2.06 30.98
100.00 40.24 59.76 17.58 21.44 3.97 4.30 6.72 2.39 58.53 1.23 18.51
23.89 811,444 43.47 742,381 14.09 69,063 10.62 1,651 14.52 31,679 11.50 2,850 22.38 4,695 18.22 9,796 12.16 7,545 14.44 65,407 12.15 3,656 17.67 27,041
100.00 91.49 8.51 2.39 45.87 4.13 6.80 14.18 10.92 94.71 5.29 39.15
100.00 91.49 8.51 0.20 3.90 0.35 0.58 1.21 0.93 8.06 0.45 3.33
Short-term Market Index (1 to 3 yrs) Composit 263.41 8.67 9.41 1.87 2.13 Government 229.41 7.34 8.13 2.04 2.29 Corporate 321.52 7.34 9.46 1.87 2.12 Finance 332.47 9.59 8.66 2.04 2.32 Banking 301.96 9.62 9.45 1.62 1.81 Consumer Goods Industry 250.35 9.22 9.51 2.25 2.62 Telecommunication 344.68 9.57 10.63 1.95 2.26 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 285.53 9.55 10.79 1.81 2.08 Property 301.04 10.52 10.08 2.05 2.37 AAA …A 310.33 9.69 9.47 1.86 2.12 A-…BBB+ 257.57 9.96 9.33 2.04 2.31 SOE 283.75 9.57 10.22 1.84 2.10
Mid-term Market Index (more than 3yrs) Composit 296.32 Government 286.16 Corporate 337.78 Finance 287.51 Banking 274.88 Consumer Goods Industry 293.05 Telecommunication 305.74 Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation 352.33 Property 303.40 AAA …A 327.36 A-…BBB+ 393.76 SOE 353.77
8.56 8.42 10.31 10.29 10.43 11.16 10.12 10.81 9.29 10.27 11.10 10.37
9.62 9.43 9.72 9.51 9.87 9.31 9.23 10.83 9.55 9.55 10.67 9.64
4.59 6.62 3.57 3.05 3.65 3.15 4.63 4.11 3.33 3.61 3.35 4.02
7.20 12.37 4.62 3.75 4.74 3.90 6.33 5.82 4.15 4.67 4.32 5.41
Source: Danareksa Estimates
19
JUNE 2014
DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Telp No. Fax No.
+62-21-29555777 +62-21-3501709
Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet
[email protected] ext. 3400 Credit Analyst Production & Database Management Amir A. Dalimunthe Eka Nuraini
[email protected] ext. 3405
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[email protected]
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[email protected] ext. 3223
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[email protected] ext. 3212
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[email protected] ext. 3215 Ariningtyas W. Agustina
[email protected] ext. 3224 Product & Retail Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy Setyo H. Purnomo
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ext. 3226
20
JUNE 2014
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