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MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF OIL AND GAS
INDONESIA GAS SITUATION by :
Agus Cahyono Adi Deputy Director for Oil and Gas State Revenue Delivered at:
WORKSHOP ON UNCONVENTIONAL GAS APEC ENERGY WORKING GROUP (EWG 41th ) VANCOUVER, CANADA, May 9-13, 2011 © DJMIGAS 201210
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AGENDA
OIL AND GAS CONDITION
GAS POLICY
GAS INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN AND DEVELOPMENT
GAS BALANCE
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT
GAS DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE
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OIL AND GAS CONDITION
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INDONESIA’s GAS PRODUCTION 2000 – 2011*) 10,000 9,000 8,000
MMSCFD
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
PRODUCTION 7,927 7,690 8,318 8,644 8,278 8,179 8,093 7,686 7,883 8,386 9,336 8,944 UTILIZATION Losses *) Data s.d. Maret 2011 © DJMIGAS 201210
7,471 7,188 7,890 8,237 7,909 7,885 7,785 7,418 7,573 7,912 8,829 8,483 456
502
428
407
369
294
308
268
310
474
507
461
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INDONESIA’s GAS SUPPLY 2000 - 2010
MMSCFD
8,000
4,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
TOTAL KONSUMSI 6,416.4 6,260.4 6,857.4 7,255.6 7,086.1 6,934.3 6,901.1 6,639.3 6,758.2 7,008.7 7,787.6 EXPOR
4,348.6 4,184.2 4,768.8 5,049.0 4,762.3 4,615.3 4,377.2 4,182.3 4,114.3 4,152.4 4,827.2
DOMESTIC
2,067.8 2,076.5 2,088.6 2,206.6 2,323.8 2,319.0 2,523.9 2,457.0 2,643.9 2,856.3 2,960.4
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NATURAL GAS RESOURCES - RESERVES & CBM RESOURCES ACEH (NAD)
5.74
NATUNA NORTH SUMATRA
1.28
51.46 CENTRAL SUMATRA
8.56
18.33 PAPUA
EAST BORNEO SOUTH SUMATRA
4.23
17.90
24.32
CELEBES WEST JAVA
3.70 6.40 EAST JAVA
MOLUCCAS
15.22 (Advance Resources Interational, Inc., 2003 processed)
GAS RESOURCES = 334.5 TSCF GAS RESERVES (TSCF) PROVEN
=
POTENTIAL = TOTAL
=
108.4 TSCF 48.74 TSCF 157.14 TSCF (AS OF JANUARY 1st 2010)
© DJMIGAS 201210
CBM RESOURCES = 453.30 TCF
Total CBM Basin = 11 (Advance Resources Interational, Inc., 2003)
Signed Contracts up to 2010: 23 CBM PSCs 6
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GAS POLICY
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ROLE OF OIL AND GAS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OIL &GAS INDUSTRI
High Capital
High Risk
High Technology
INDUSTRIAL RAW MATERIAL RESOURCES
FULFILL DOMESTIC FUEL DEMAND SOURCE OF STATE REVENUE
Sustainable National Development
CREATING MULTIFLIER EFFECTS
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A.
NATIONAL GAS POLICY
IMPROVING EXPLORATION ACTIVITY TO INCREASE NEW RESERVE (CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL)
B.
GAS ALLOCCATION POLICY
C.
GAS PRICING POLICY (TO SECURE SUPPLY AND GROW INVESTMENT)
D.
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
9 © DJMIGAS 201210
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NO
1
OUTLINE
POLICY IMPLEMENTATION DETAILS
improving • Opening new working area with the target singed contracts 40 exploration activity working area per year baru pertahun to increase new • In 2009, signed contracts 34 Working Area and in 2010, reserve signed contracts 38 Working Area • Develop unconventional gas resources (CBM dan shale gas)
2
Gas allocation policy
Gas utilization is prioritized for domestic use by keeping considering economic field development A new found gas reserve utilization allocation is prioritized for fulfilling local needs. if there is an excess can be utilized for fulfilling the need outside the local. Gas utilization for domestic needs is done by considering the availability of the infrastructure, reserve and the economic of field by prioritized upstream utilization ( electricity and fertilizer) if there is a shortage (less gas supply) in certain area as result of lack of gas resources and infrastructure, so it can be done gas reallocation or swap as one form of contingency plan.
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POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
NO
OUTLINE
3
Gas pricing policy (to secure supply and grow investment)
CONTINUATION ......
DETAILS • Government regulate and determine gas price • Gas price depend on the economic of gas field development and availability of infrastructure • Gas price can be increased related to oil price, product’s price and the combination of product and oil price • Gas price model selection consider state revenue by considering optimum of economic growth • Determine gas price by considering balance between gas’ producer and consumer
4
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Infrastructure Development
- Continue contruction transmission and distribution - Contruction of LNG Receviing termina in Jawa and Sumatra
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GAS INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN AND DEVELOPMENT
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Infrastructures: Existing and Planned
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GAS BALANCE
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INDONESIA GAS BALANCE 2011-2025
MMSCFD 12.000
Potential Demand
10.000
Existing Supply Project Supply
8.000
6.000
4.000
Contracted Demand
2.000
0 2011
© DJMIGAS 201210
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
CONTRACTED DEMAND
POTENTIAL DEMAND
EXISTING SUPPLY
PROJECT SUPPLY
POTENTIAL SUPPLY dari CADANGAN BELUM DIKEMBANGKAN
POTENTIAL SUPPLY dari KAPASITAS UNIT DAN REGASIFIKASI
2025
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INDONESIA GAS BALANCE MAP 2011-2025 (EXISTING SUPPLY + PROJECT SUPPLY VS CONTRACTED DEMAND)
REG I (NAD)
THAILAND
Year
2011
2020
Supply
235
78
2025
REG VII (KALIMANTAN BAGIAN TIMUR)
REG LAOS XI (KEPULAUAN RIAU) Year
2011
2020
Year
2025
BANGKOK 19 Supply 550 150 CAMBODJA VIETNAM 15 Demand 103 36
2011
2020
2025
0
Supply
2889
1351
273
7
Demand
522
140
20
Demand
25
75
Balance
210
3
4
Balance
447
114
-7
Balance
Keluar Region
197
0
0
Keluar Region
575
318
80
Keluar Region
1695
333
0
0
Net Balance
672
878
253
Net Balance
13
3
4
Masuk Region Net Balance
78 -50
78 -126
2367
1211
MANILA
REG VIII (SULAWESI BAGIAN SELATAN)
REG IX (SULAWESI BAGIAN TENGAH)
Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
48
62
23
Demand
38
38
0
Balance
10
24
23
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
10
24
23
253
Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
0
410
403
Demand
0
0
0
Balance
0
410
403
Keluar Region
0
335
335
Net Balance
0
75
68
-87 REG X (PAPUA)
NAD
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM
EAST NATUNA KUALA LUMPUR
SUMUT SUMTENG
EAST MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
KALTIM
DURI
Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
880
1039
1024
Demand
2,5
5
0
Balance
877,5
1034
1024
Keluar Region
943
1028
1028
Net Balance
-65,5
6
-4
REG II (SUMATERA BAGIAN UTARA) Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
52
27
4
Demand
85
2
0
Balance
- 33
25
4
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
- 33
25
4
REG II (SUMATERA BAGIAN TENGAH &SELATAN) Year Supply
2011 1723
2020 1451
2025 106
Demand
870.1
385
0
Balance
852.9
1066
106
Keluar Region
1172
780
Gris sikSUMSEL
UJUNG PANDANG JABAR
- 319
286
JATENG
REG IV (JAWA BAGIAN BARAT) Year Supply
2011 616
2020 131
JATIM
PAGERUNGAN
54
Year Supply
2011 1.8
2020 148
Blok Masela REG VI (JAWA BAGIAN TIMUR & BALI)
REG V (JAWA BAGIAN TENGAH)
2025
MALUKU SELATAN
2025 50
Year Supply
2011 467
2020 342
2025 149
Demand
1440
583
0
Demand
3.5
130
50
Demand
573
275
42
Balance
-824
-452
54
Balance
- 1.7
18
0
Balance
- 106
67
107
0 Masuk Region
Net Balance
PAPUA
SULAWESI
619
604
0
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
- 1.7
18
0
Net Balance
- 106
67
107
106 Net Balance
-205
152
54
REG XII (MALUKU BAGIAN SELATAN) Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
0
450
450
Demand
0
0
0 450
Balance
0
450
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
0
450
450
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INDONESIA GAS BALANCE MAP 2011-2025
(EXISTING SUPPLY + PROJECT SUPPLY VS CONTRACTED DEMAND + POTENTIAL DEMAND) REG I (NAD) THAILAND REG XILAOS (KEPULAUAN RIAU) Year
2011
2020
Supply
235
78
2025
Year
2011
2020
2025
BANGKOK 19 Supply 550 150 CAMBODJA VIETNAM 229 Demand 247 234
REG VII (KALIMANTAN BAGIAN TIMUR) Year
2011
2020
2025
0
Supply
2889
1351
273
234
Demand
535
784
561
Demand
185
229
Balance
50
-151
-210
Balance
303
-84
-234
Balance
Keluar Region
197
0
0
Keluar Region
575
318
80
Keluar Region
1695
333
0
0
Net Balance
659
234
-288
Net Balance
-147
-151
-210
Masuk Region Net Balance
78
78
-194
-324
2354
567
MANILA
REG VIII (SULAWESI BAGIAN SELATAN)
REG IX (SULAWESI BAGIAN TENGAH) Year
Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
48
62
23
Demand
83
111
110
Balance
35
-49
-87
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
-35
-49
-87
-288
2011
2020
2025
Supply
0
410
403
Demand
30
145
145
Balance
-30
265
258
Keluar Region
0
335
335
Net Balance
-30
-70
-77
-314 REG X (PAPUA)
NAD
EAST NATUNA KUALA LUMPUR
SUMUT SUMTENG
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM EAST MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
KALTIM
DURI
Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
880
1039
1024
Demand
18.5
221
216
Balance
861.5
818
808
Keluar Region
943
1028
1028
Net Balance
-81,5
-210
- 220
REG II (SUMATERA BAGIAN UTARA) Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
52
27
4
Demand
260
203
201
Balance
- 208
-176
-197
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
- 208
-176
-197
REG II (SUMATERA BAGIAN TENGAH &SELATAN) Year Supply
2011 1723
2020 1451
2025 106
Demand
1015.5
915
673.9
Balance
707,5
536
-567.9
Keluar Region
1172
780
Gris sikSUMSEL
UJUNG PANDANG JATENG JATIM JABAR REG IV (JAWA BAGIAN BARAT) Year Supply
- 464.5
-244
2011 616
2020 131
54
Year Supply
Blok Masela
PAGERUNGAN REG VI (JAWA BAGIAN TIMUR & BALI)
REG V (JAWA BAGIAN TENGAH)
2025
MALUKU SELATAN
2011 1.8
2020 148
2025 50
Year Supply
2011 467
2020 342
2025 149
Demand
1858
2281
2207
Demand
168
449
449
Demand
821
1165
1125
Balance
-1242
-2150
-2153
Balance
- 166.2
- 301
-399
Balance
- 354
-823
-976
0 Masuk Region
Net Balance
PAPUA
SULAWESI
619
604
0
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
- 166.2
- 301
-399
Net Balance
- 354
-823
-976
-567.9 Net Balance
-623
-1546
-2153
REG XII (MALUKU BAGIAN SELATAN) Year
2011
2020
2025
Supply
0
450
450
Demand
0
0
0 450
Balance
0
450
Keluar Region
0
0
0
Net Balance
0
450
450
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UNCONVENTIONAL GAS DEVELOPMENT
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ROAD MAP OF CBM DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA PP: CBM – 1 Rambutan (GOI Sponsor)
Ministerial regulation No.1669
Ministerial Minister Regulation Decree No.036/2008, No. 036, revision revision to – to Ministerial Minister Decree Regulation No. No. 033/2006 033/2006
1.0 BcfD CBM Estimated Production ~500 MMSCFD
CBM for Electricity Pilot Project
1998
CBM Estimated Production ~1500 MMSCFD
CBM Estimated Production 1.8 BcfD ~1000 MMSCFD
2007 2008 2003 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Increasing number of CBM Contract Average production = 250 MSCFD/ well Ministerial Minister Decree No. 033/2006
Legend: Feasibility study Technical and Economical
Start of CBM era st (1 CBM PSC Contract )
Government Participation Start of Commercial Period (Exploration) Estimated CBM Production
PP: Pilot Project
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CBM UTILIZATION PLANNING CBM for electrical power
CBM for another domestic consumption CITY GAS CNG for TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY
CBM for LNG 20 © DJMIGAS 201210
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SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AND GAS INFRASTRUCTURE THAILAND
LAOS
Manila
NAD
LNG Receiving Terminal
Bangkok CAMBODIA
Ban Mabtapud
Phnom Penh
Philipines VIETNAM
Ho Chi Minh City
Songkhla
Bangkot
LNG Plant Jerneh Guntong
Penang
Lhokseumawe
Port Klang
Kuala Lumpur
Port Dickson Dumai
Natuna
Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul
EASTu MALAYSIA
SINGAPORE
Ternate
U
Attaka Tunu Bekapai
KALIMANTAN Samarinda
M A
Balikpapan
T
Sorong
Jambi
R A
TELISA SHALE
HALMAHERA
Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal
S Padang
Pacific Ocean KLASAFET FORMATION
Manado Kuchin g
Batam Bintan
Duri
Shale Gas Highlight Areas
Kota Kinibalu
BRUNEI
Alpha
Singapore Gas Trunkline
Medan
West Natuna
WEST Kerteh Duyong Mogpu MALAYSIA
BAONG SHALE
CNG Plant
Sea
Lawit
Banda Aceh
Planned Pipeline
China
Erawan
Khanon
Existing Pipeline
South
Jayapura
SULAWESI
Grissik
Banjarmasin
Palembang
BURU
GUMAI SHALE Ardjuna Fields Cirebon Semarang
WEST JakartaJAVA
JAVA
IRIAN JAYA
SERAM
Ujung Pandang
I Pagerungan N D O N E S I A
MADURA Bangkalan Surabaya
EAST JAWA
SUMBAWA
Maluku Selatan
FLORES
LOMBOK
BALI
Indian Ocean
TIMOR
SUMBA AUSTRALIA
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GAS DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE
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INDONESIA GAS DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE
Indonesia endowed with potential of variety energy resources conventional as well as unconventional gas Domestic and Global Natural Gas demand increased Government of Indonesia is obliged to guarantee the availability of domestic feed stock and fuel supply (including natural gas). Adequate infrastructure support is required to assure smooth supply and distribution of domestic feed stock and fuel. Source of oil and gas in Indonesia located far from demand centre. Limited oil and gas infrastructures currently hinder feed stock and fuel supply and distribution. Optimizing benefit of natural gas utilization for foreign exchange trade balance and driver of domestic economic growth
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