INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT’s 2050 VISION
CURRENT CONDITIONS At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows: • There are great potential energy sources • Society's access to energy is still limited • Oil fuel consumption is 63% of total energy consumption • Gas and coal prices are higher on the export market than on the domestic market, Domestic consumers have low purchasing power. • The energy industry is not optimal – Limited energy infrastructure (Appendixes G1 s/d G4, pages 33-36) – Energy prices (such as for fuel, gas for fertilizer factories and new/ renewable energies) that are not commensurate with their economic value (Appendix H, page 40) – Inefficient energy utilization (Appendix I, page 41)
EXPECTED CONDITIONS
• • • •
Rational Energy prices Society’s access to energy Better economic conditions will increase society’s purchasing power Security of energy supply (Balanced Energy Mix)
FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2005 Household&Comercial
by Sector LPG 6%
BBM 63%
Gas Kota 0%
12 Juta KL
Rumah Tangga dan Komersial 24%
Industri 41%
Batubara 0%
Listrik 31%
Transport
LPG 0% Gas Kota 0% Listrik Batubara 0% 0% BBM 100%
Transportasi 35%
By Fuel Type
26 Juta KL
1,1 Juta Ton
LPG 2%
Gas Kota 8%
500 BSCF
Batubara 11%
Industry
13 Juta Ton
Batubara 27%
Gas Kota 19%
Listrik 12%
LPG 1%
Listrik 11%
BBM 42%
BBM 67%
54 Juta KL
100 TWh
Trend of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix Geothermal
100%
80%
Oil
P ersen
60%
40%
Natural Gas 20%
Coal 0% 1990
Renewable
Hydropower 1991
1992
1990
1991
1992
1993
PLTA
Biofuel
1994 Batubara
1995
1996
EBT Lainnya
1997 Gas Bumi
1998
1999
Minyak Bumi
2000
Panas Bumi
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
CO2 Emission from Energy Utilization 300
200 150 100 50 0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04
Million Ton
250
Other Sector Transport Household Industry PowerPlant
2005 CO2 Emission by Sources Industry 37% PowerPlant 26%
Other Sector 4%
Transport 23%
Household 10%
NATIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALS 2004 TYPES OF FOSSILBASED ENERGY Oil
RESOURCES
RESERVES (Proven + Possible)
PRODUCTION (per annum)
9 billion barrels
Gas
86.9 billion barrels 384.7 TSCF
Coal
57 billion tons
19.3 billion tons
130 million barrels
147
EQUAL TO
USAGE
INSTALLED CAPACITY
75.67 GW
6,851.00 GWh
4,200.00 MW
27.00 GW
2,593.50 GWh
800.00 MW
NON-FOSSIL ENERGY Hydroelectric power Geothermal power Mini/Micro hydro
RESOURCES 845.00 million BOE 219.00 million BOE 458.75 MW
182 TSCF
500 million barrels 3.0 TSCF
CAD/PROD RATIO (without exploration) Years 18 61
458.75 MW
84.00 MW
49.81 GW
302.40 MW
Solar energy
4.80 kWh/m2/ day
8.00 MW
Wind power
9.29 GW
0.50 MW
Biomass
24.112 Tons* e.q. 3 GW for 11 * Only in the Kalan region – West years
Uranium (Nuclear) Kalimantan
RESERVES AND NETWORKS OF GAS PIPELINES THAILAND
LAOS
Manila
Bangkok CAMBODIA
Philipines
Ban Mabtapud
Phnom Penh
Existing Pipeline
South
VIETNAM
China
Ho Chi Minh City
Planned Pipeline
Sea Erawan
Khanon Songkhla
Bangkot Lawit
3,756
Jerneh Kota Kinibalu
Guntong Banda Aceh
Penang
Lhokseumawe
0,720
Kuala
Singapore Gas Trunkline
Medan
West Natuna
WEST Kerteh Duyong Mogpu MALAYSI A Port Klang Lumpur Port Dickson Dumai
BRUNEI
Alpha Natuna
Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u
51,627
EAST MALAYSIA
Pacific Ocean Manado
SINGAPORE
Kuchin g
Batam Bintan
Ternate
11,516
Duri
HALMAHERA
Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal
S U
KALIMANTAN Samarinda
M A
Padang
34,021
T
Balikpapan
Attaka Tunu Bekapai
18,520 Sorong
R A
3,894
Jambi
Jayapur a
SULAWESI Grissik
5,855
Banjarmasin
Palembang
BURU
5,529 Jakarta
IRIAN JAYA
SERAM
Ujung Pandang
Ardjuna Fields CirebonSemarang
0,11 3,854MADURA Bangkalan
J A V A Surabaya
Indian Ocean
TOTAL RESERVES I Pagerungan N D O N E S I A 2P : 142.462 BSCF
BALI
SUMBAWA
FLORES
Merauke
LOMBOK TIMOR
SUMBA
Massela 3,00 AUSTRALIA
GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF)
REFINERIES AND Fuel TRANSPORTATION MODE THAILAND
LAOS
Manila
Transit Terminal
Bangkok CAMBODIA
Philipines
Ban Mabtapud
Phnom Penh
Pipeline Distribution
South
VIETNAM
Tanker
China
Ho Chi Minh City
Oil Refinery
Sea Erawan
Khanon Songkhla
Bangkot Lawit
Jerneh Kota Kinibalu
Guntong Banda Aceh
Penang
P. Brandan: 5 Lhokseumawe MBOPD
Port Klang Medan
Port Dickson Dumai
Dumai : 120 MBOPD
West Natuna
WEST Kerteh Duyong Mogpu MALAYSI A
BRUNEI
Alpha Natuna
Bandara Seri Begawan
Kuala Lumpur
Bintul u
EAST MALAYSIA
Pacific Ocean Manado
SINGAPORE
Kuchin g
Batam Bintan
Duri
Ternate
S U
KALIMANTAN Samarinda
M A
Padang
T
Balikpapan
R A
Jambi
Attaka Tunu Bekapai
Balikpapan : 260 MBOPD
S.Pakning : 50 MBOPD Grissik
HALMAHERA
Bontan g
Musi 135.20 MBOPD
Sorong
Kasim : 10 MBOPD Jayapur a
SULAWESI
Banjarmasin
Palembang
BURU
IRIAN JAYA
SERAM
Ujung Pandang
Jakarta Bandung
Balongan : 125 Semarang Cepu : 3.80 MBOPD MBOPD MADURA Bangkalan JAVA
TOTAL REFINERY CAPACITY I Pagerungan N D O N E S I A1,057,000 BOPD
Surabaya
Cilacap: 348 MBOPD
Yogyakarta
Indian Ocean
SUMBAWA
FLORES
Merauke
BALI LOMBOK TIMOR
SUMBA AUSTRALIA
TARGETS: 1.Per-capita energy consumption of a minimum of 10 BOE (RIKEN) and 95% electrification ratio 95% (RUKN) in the year 2025 2.To achieve the security of domestic energy supply, through: • Energy elasticity less than 1 in the year 2025 • An optimal (primary) energy mix in 2025 : – The role of oil decreases to 26.2% – The role of natural gas increases to 30.6% – The role of coal increases to 32.7% – The role of geothermal power increases to 3.8% – The role of new and renewable sources of energy increases to 4.4% • The fulfillment of fossil-based domestic energy supply through the gradual reduction of exports
NATIONAL ENERGI MIX TARGET FOR THE YEAR 2025 (GR No. 5 / 2006)
Bio-fuel 5 % COAL 33 %
NRE 17 %
Geothermal 5 %
Gas 30 % OIL 20 %
Biomass, Nuclear, Hydropower, Solar, Wind 5 % Coal Liquefaction 2 %
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
Hydropower 20
20
14
13
12
11
10
09
20%
20
20
20
20
20
20
08
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
0%
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Percen t
Projected Trends of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix
100%
Geothermal
80%
Oil
60%
Natural Gas
40%
Renewable
Coal Bio Fuel
Energy Snap-Shot
Energy Snap-Shot Industrial Sector -
50
100
150
200
-
250
2000
2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 A (CM)
40
60
80
100
120
Heat
H2
140
2050 B (CM)
2050 B (CM)
COL
20
OIL
GAS
BMS
S/W
Heat
H2
COL
ELE
GAS
BMS
S/W
ELE
CO2 emission in industrial sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)
Energy consumption in industrial sector (Mtoe)
Skenario
OIL
A
B
Economic (VA)
increase 4% p.a
increase 4% p.a.
Energy Mix
Oil Reduction (50%)
Oil Reduction (60%) + New Technology
Efficiency Increase
Fuel 10%, Ele 25%
Fuel 25%, Ele 50%
160
Energy Snap-Shot Residential Sector -
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
2000
2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)
2050 B (CM)
COL
OIL
GAS
BMS
S/W
Heat
H2
ELE
COL
Energy consumption in Residential sector (Mtoe)
Skenario
OIL
5
GAS
10
BMS
15
S/W
Heat
20
H2
CO2 emission in Residential sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)
A
B
Growth Rate
Cooling 1.5%, Cook(S) 1%, Hot Wtr 0.5%, Cook(E) 1.5%, Lighting (2%), Appliance (2.5%)
Energy Mix
Oil Reduction; Changed of Non Commersial F
Efficiency Increase
20%
A + Advanced Tech. Hot Water, Cooking, etc 25%
ELE
Energy Snap-Shot Transport Sector -
50
100
150
200
250
300
-
350
2000
2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)
2050 B (CM)
COL
OIL
GAS
BMS
S/W
Heat
H2
ELE
COL
OIL
40
GAS
BMS
60
S/W
80
Heat
H2
A
B
Growth Rate
Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5%
Energy Mix
Introducing Bio Fuel
Efficiency Increase
100
ELE
CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)
Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe)
Skenario
20
Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen
Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%
Energy Snap-Shot Power Generation -
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0%
2000
2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)
2050 B (CM)
COL
OIL
GAS
NUC
HYD
HYD(P)
GEO
BMS
S/W
COL
GAS
OIL
40%
NUC
HYD
60%
HYD(P)
80%
GEO
BMS
A
B
Growth Rate
Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%, Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5%
Energy Mix
Introducing Bio Fuel
Efficiency Increase
100%
S/W
CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)
Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe)
Skenario
20%
Introducing BioFuel + Hydrogen
Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%
Energy Demand Projection -
100
200
300
400
500
2000
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000
2050 A (CM)
2050 A (CM)
2050 B (CM)
COL
-
2050 B (CM)
OIL
GAS
BMS
NUC
Primary Energy (Mtoe)
HYD
S/W
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Trans. Prv.
Final Energy (Mtoe)
Trans. Frg.
Total
C'/C
C/E
E/D
D
Factor Analysis Total 500% 400%
402% 365%
vs 2000's
300% 200%
138% 79%
100% 0% -100%
-22%-34% -86% -103%
-200% 2050 A
-139% -166% 2050 B
AIM/End-use
Oil Subsidy Reduction for Residential Oil Used Residential Energy Service Requirement Cooking -> devices Kerosene Stove Gas Stove Biomass Stove Electric Stove
Lighting -> devices
Electric Appliances
Incandescent Bulb Compact Fluorescent Lamp Kerosene Lamp
