Indonesia
Daily| 31 Agustus 2017
IHSG
♦ Berita emiten
Index
Juta saham
6,500
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 29‐Aug‐16
5888.2
‐15.1
‐0.3%
Last
Avg 6 month
Volume (juta saham)
5,981
6,397
Nilai (Rp miliar)
4,702
5,228
Top 5 saham berdasarkan volume No
Ticker
Harga Akhir
Chg %
Volume (juta saham)
1
SRIL
362
1.7 ▲ 990
2
TRAM
185
0.5 ▲ 680
3
RIMO
396
‐1.5 ▼ 345
4
BUMI
244
‐1.6 ▼ 327
5
IIKP
222
‐0.9 ▼ 263
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
♦ ♦ ♦ ♦
Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL): Company visit, “It’s time to monetizing”. Ciputra Development (CTRA, BUY): Laba bersih tumbuh 14% YoY di 1H17. Timah (TINS): Catat laba bersih IDR150.65miliar di 1H17. Indika Energy (INDY): Catat laba bersih mencapai USD51.22juta di 1H17.
Market Review IHSG ditutup berlanjut melemah tipis, -0.3% kemarin. Berlanjut melemah tipisnya IHSG ditengah pelaku pasar yang menanti katalis lebih lanjut, seperti dari dalam negeri kemarin, pelaku pasar fokus terhadap inflasi bulan Agutus (akan diumumkan tanggal 4 Sep). Economist Maybank Indonesia, Juniman memperkirakan inflasi bulan Agustus masih ramah, yaitu 0.04% MoM, lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya 0.22% MoM, seiring stabilnya harga kebutuhan bahan pokok. Hal tersebut memicu ruang potensi bank Indonesia untuk kembali menurunkan suku bunga acuannya (7 Day repo rate). Yield obligasi pemerintah berangsur menurun, kemarin menyentuh 6.729% (level terendahnya sejak Juni 2013). Dari mata uang Rupiah masih bergerak stabil diperdagangkan di level IDR13,300-an, atau ditutup di IDR13,346/USD kemarin. Dari bursa regional dibuka mixed pagi ini. Bursa Malaysia libur hari ini (national day). Sementara bursa Wall Street ditutup positif tipis semalam, rata-rata +0.3%. Bergerk mixednya bursa regioonal pagi ini, ditengah pelaku pasar yang fokus terhadap US yang masih yang masih melakukan upaya untuk melakukan upaya diplomatik dengan Korea Utara. Sementara kemarin, diumumkan beberapa data makro ekonomi US yang positif, seperti : 1) 1) Data pertambahan tenaga kerja (ADP) employment change bulan Ags mencapai 237k tenaga kerja, lebih baik dari perkiraan consensus mencapai 185k vs. bulan sebelumnya 178k. 2) Data GDP Annualized di 2Q tumbuh 3% QoQ, lebih baik dari perkiraan consensus, tumbuh 2.7% vs. bulan sebelumnya di 2.6%. Dari komoditas minyak mentah di NYMEX turun 1% menjadi USD45.96 per barrel. Melemahnya minyak mentah lebih dipicu pelaku pasar yang melihat masih berlimpahnya pasokan minyak US, meski adanya badai Harvey yang menerjang wilayah Texas, dan telah menutup 23% kapasitas penyulingan minyak AS.
Hal | 2
Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL): Company visit, “It’s time to monetizing” • •
•
•
•
•
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Kami melakukan company visit ke Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL), adapun beberapa point penting yang kami dapatkan yaitu: Peta persaingan di Industri Tekstil. Manajemen melihat peluang industry Tekstil di Indonesia yang cukup besar di pasar tekstil international. Hal ini disebabkan China yang saat ini menguasai pasar tekstil secara global, sekitar 30% yang terus menurun. Hal tersebut dipicu oleh mahalnya upah buruh disana, demikian juga tidak adanya subsidi ekspor lagi yang pernah dialami di Industri tersebut pada saat tahun 2000-an. Kondisi tersebut juga tercermin pertumbuhan ekspor tekstil Indonesia yang tumbuh CAGR 7.9% di tahun 2010-2016, dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan ekspor tekstil di tahun 2003-2009 yang hanya tumbuh 4% CAGR. Perusahaan juga telah menyelesaikan penambahan kapasitas produksinya di 1Q17, dengan kondisi tersebut manajemen memperkirakan pertumbuhan penjualan akan lebih baik, mencapai 812% YoY di tahun ini, dan di tahun depan tumbuh 10-15% YoY. Permintaan ekspor yang meningkat. Di 1Q17, penjualan ekspor SRIL meningkat 16% YoY mencapai USD94.6juta, vs. penjualan Domestik yang relatif flat (-1%) mencapai USD85.6juta. Peningkat penjualan ekspor didominasi pasar eropa dan pasar Amerika serikat, dan Amerika latin, serta pasar Uni Emirat Arab dan Afrika yang tumbuh masingmasing 15% dan 62% YoY, dan 49% YoY. Ketiga pasar tersebut mewakili 45% dari penjualan ekspor SRIL di 1Q17. Manajemen mengatakan peningkatan di pasar eropa dan Amerika didukung peningkatan permintaan untuk produk garmen, sementara di pasar Uni Emirat Arab didukung peningkatan permintaan untuk produk Kain mentah/Greige. Dengan peningkatan kapasitas produksi yang cukup signifikan, seperti Garmen naik 70% menjadi 27juta piece p.a, dan kain jadi sebesar 100% menjadi 240juta Yard P.a., manajemen memperkirakan kapasitas tersebut mampu mendukung pertumbuhan permintaan hingga 3 tahun ke depan. Perusahaan juga fokus untuk menurunkan biaya produksi. Dimana saat ini tengah membangun pabrik Rayon, yang diperkirakan selesai di tahun depan. Dengan jadinya pabrik Rayon, maka hal tersebut diharapkan mengurangi ketergantungan impor, dan diharapkan akan meningkatkan margin perusahaan. Perusahaan juga fokus terhadap menurunkan biaya bunga, dengan melakukan refinancing hutangnya. Di Juni 2016, Perusahaan telah -2-
•
•
•
menerbitkan obligasi senilai USD350juta dengan Bunga 6.875% jatuh tempo tahun 2021. Penerbitan tersebut digunakan untuk membeli obligasi lama senilai USD270juta dengan bunga 9%. P.a, dimana obligasi yang dapat dibeli kembali senilai USD180.7juta. Di Maret 2017, SRIL juga menerbitkan obligasi senilai USD150juta dengan bunga 6.875% jatuh tempo tahun 2024. Dana obligasi digunakan untuk membeli sisa obligasi dengan bunga 9% senilai USD89.2juta. Sehingga total obligasi SRIL yang diterbitkan saat ini senilai USD500juta (USD350+USD150juta). Baru-baru ini SRIL juga tengah melakukan pinjaman sindikasi senilai USD100juta, yang digunakan untuk melakukan refinancing dan juga modal kerja. Belanja modal. Manajemen menargetkan belanja modal sekitar USD15juta di tahun ini, lebih rendah dibandingkan tahun lalu senilai USD60juta. Hal tersebut akan digunakan untuk maintainance capex saja. Di 1Q17, realisasi capex mencapai USD6juta, atau sekitar 40% dari target. Laporan keuangan SRIL 1H17 masih dalam proses audit (limited review). Manajemen memperkirakan akan diumumkan di bulan September, dimana manajemen mengindikasikan kinerja SRIL di 2Q17 masih baik secara sessional, karena ada efek lebaran di periode tersebut. Sedangkan di 3Q17 secara historis akan kembali normal. Secara keseluruhan, manajemen memperkirakan penjualan di tahun ini tumbuh 8-12% YoY. Valuasi yang menarik. Berdasarkan estimasi consensus analyst, laba bersih SRIL diperkirakan tumbuh 11% YoY mencapai USD66juta. Dengan estimasi tersebut SRIL diperdagangkan pada 6.8x 2017 PER, atau masih jauh lebih murah dibandingkan dengan valuasi industry textile regional rata-rata diperdagangkan pada 14x 2017 P/E.
IDR1,700 per saham.
Timah (TINS): Catat laba bersih IDR150.65miliar di 1H17..
Perbandingan Peers di regional Company
Market caps Country (USD m)
PER
•
ROE % ROE %
FY17 FY18
FY17
FY18
Sri Rejeki Isman
504.5 Indonesia
6.8
5.4
17.6
19.0
Pan Brothers
223.4 Indonesia
17.2
17.2
5.0
7.0
• •
Regional sec tor average Luthai Textile Co
1404.0 China
7.5
7.2
12.2
12.3
Eclat Textile company
3375.8 Taiwan
27.4
20.8
24.1
29.1
Far Eastern New Century Corp
4315.7 Taiwan
17.3
14.4
4.3
4.9
Vardhman Textile Ltd
1076.6 India
9.6
7.8
15.0
16.2
Arvind Ltd
1480.1 India
24.6
17.0
10.8
13.9
Pacific Textile Holdings
1447.4 Hongkong
11.4
10.7
29.9
31.7
Texwinca Holdings Ltd
778.7 Hongkong
12.5
11.6
8.8
9.7
1040.7 Hongkong
5.6
5.0
22.0
21.3
14.0 11.7
15.0
16.5
Texhong Textile Group Ltd Average
Indika Energy (INDY): USD51.22juta di 1H17 • • •
Sumber: Bloomberg.
•
Ciputra Development (CTRA, BUY): Laba bersih tumbuh 14% YoY di 1H17 •
• • •
Dikutip dari Iqplus, PT Timah (TINS) melaporkan laba bersih mencapai IDR150.65miliar di 1H17 vs. rugi bersih mencapai IDR32.87miliar di 1H16. Pendapatan usaha naik tajam mencapai 54% YoY mencapai IDR4.3t di 1H17 vs. IDR2.79t di 1H16. Laba kotor mencapai IDR630.29miliar (naik 118% YoY), dan laba sebelum pajak mencapai IDR238.78miliar (naik 1,165% YoY).
Ciputra Development melaporkan kinerja labanya tumbuh 14% YoY mencapai IDR272miliar di 1H17, atau mewakili 32% dari estimasi Aurellia Setiabudi, Analyst property Maybank-KE di tahun ini (dibawah perkiraan), dan 24% dari estimasi consensus analyst di tahun ini. Pendapatan di 2Q17 tumbuh 22% QoQ dengan gross margin stabil di 51%. Sementara beban di 2Q17 meningkat, Aurelia menduga terjadi kenaiakan beban gaji karena bonus (THR), dan juga beban lain2. Secara keseluruhan Aurelia masih mempertahankan estimasinya, karena memperkirakan pendapatan yang lebih baik di, serta beban yang kembali normal di semester II tahun ini (2H17). Aurellia mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY CTRA dengan TP di -3-
• • •
laba
bersih
mencapai
Dikutip dari Iqplus, PT Indika Energy, Tbk (INDY) meraih pendapatan sebesar USD453,03 juta di 1H17 (naik 27% YoY). Laba kotor naik 89% YoY menjadi USD56,45 juta dari laba kotor tahun sebelumnya yang USD29,81 juta. Laba sebelum pajak diraih sebesar USD45,82 juta dari rugi sebelum pajak tahun sebelumnya yang USD34,65 juta. Laba yang dapat didistribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk mencapai USD51,22 juta di 1H17 vs. rugi bersih sebesar US$22,36 juta di 1H16.
Indika Energy (INDY): USD51.22juta di 1H17 •
Catat
Catat
laba
bersih
mencapai
Dikutip dari Iqplus, PT Indika Energy, Tbk (INDY) meraih pendapatan sebesar USD453,03 juta di 1H17 (naik 27% YoY). Laba kotor naik 89% YoY menjadi USD56,45 juta dari laba kotor tahun sebelumnya yang USD29,81 juta. Laba sebelum pajak diraih sebesar USD45,82 juta dari rugi sebelum pajak tahun sebelumnya yang USD34,65 juta. Laba yang dapat didistribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk mencapai USD51,22 juta di 1H17 vs. rugi bersih sebesar US$22,36 juta di 1H16.
Commodities
30‐08‐2017 29‐08‐2017
Change (USD)
Change (%)
Nickel (USD/ton)
11,520.00
11,647.00 (127.00) (1.09)
Tin (USD/ton)
20,800.00
20,520.00 280.00 1.36
Gold (USD/t.oz)
1,308.64
1,309.27 (0.63) (0.05)
CPO Malaysia (USD/ton)
627.56
628.13 (0.57) (0.09)
Oil NYMEX (USD/barrel)
45.96
46.44 (0.48) (1.03)
Coal ‐ ARA region (USD/ton)
*
*
na
na
Note:*Libur | Sumber: Bloomberg
Company
ADR Ticker
ADR Close 30‐08‐2017
Telkom ‐ NY (USD)
TLK US
35.43
(0.37)
1,891.40
4,740
(60.10)
250
Indosat ‐ NY (USD)
IIT US
‐
‐
‐
6,475
‐
50
BLT ‐SG (SGD)
BLTA SP
‐
‐
‐
IDR
13,346.00
SGD
9,833.84
Change ADR Shares Local (IDR) % Equivalent IDX Close % Prem Per ADR
‐
Sumber: Bloomberg
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