Indonesia Daily| 17 Januari 2017
IHSG
Index
♦ Berita emiten & ekonomi ♦
Acset Indonusa (ACST): Downgrade rekomendasi menjadi HOLD (dari BUY), dan TP baru di IDR2,800 per saham.
30,000
♦
Dua putra Utama Makmur (DPUM): Company visit.
25,000
♦
Ekonomi: Neraca perdagagan bulan Desember 2016, surplus USD0.99miliar.
Juta saham
6,000
35,000
5,500 5,000
20,000
4,500
15,000 10,000
Market Review
IHSG masih cenderung bergerak flat, ditutup +0.2% kemarin. Bergerak flatnya IHSG ditengah sepinya sentimen dari luar negeri. Pelaku pasar masih fokus terhadap kondisi bursa luar negeri, seperti : pelantikan 0 3,500 Donald Trump pada tanggal 20 Jan mendatang, Pertemuan The Fed (tanggal 1 Feb), serta negosiasi Brexit. #N/A Datetime 23‐Feb‐1611‐Apr‐1625‐May‐1613‐Jul‐1625‐Aug‐167‐Oct‐1618‐Nov‐164‐Jan‐17 Dari dalam negeri sendiri, kemarin diumumkan data neraca perdagangan bulan Desember 2016, yang surplus USD0.99miliar, lebih dipicu oleh meningkatnya ekspor, seiring dengan meningkatnya harga-harga 5270.0 10.7 0.2% komoditas. Namun berita tersebut, tidak banyak berpengaruh terhadap kinerja IHSG secara kseluruhan. Aktivitas perdagangan juga relatif sepi. Investor asing masih melakukan net selling tipis, mencapai IDR184miliar. Dari mata uang Rupiah juga relatif stabil, di IDR13,362/USD vs. Jumat kemarin di Last Avg 6 month IDR13,338/USD. Sementara Yield obligasi pemerintah berjangka 10 tahun, berangsur-angsur membaik, Volume (juta saham) 7,553 7,076 turun menjadi 7.524% kemarin vs. 7.619% pada hari jumat pekan kemarin. 4,000
5,000
Nilai (Rp miliar)
No 1 2
Dari bursa regional dibuka mixed. Bursa Wall Street libur kemarin (Marthin L King day). Dari bursa eropa kemarin rata-rata ditutup melemah, ditengah pelaku pasar yang fokus Perdana Menteri UK, Theresa May yang tengah menyiapkan Inggris untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa Sementara pelaku pasar juga masih fokus terhadap data-data makro di US. Dipekan ini data makro ekonomi US yang akan diumumkan, seperti : 1) Top 5 saham berdasarkan volume Inflasi bulan Desember (akan diumumkan 18 Jan), diperkirakan consensus tumbuh +0.3% MoM, dan 2.1% Harga YoY. 2) Data Industrial Production bulan Desember (18 Jan), diperkirakan consensus tumbuh +0.6% MoM. Volume Ticker Akhir Chg % (juta saham) 3) Data building permits dan Housing starts bulan Desember, {(19 Jan), diperkirakan cosnensus tumbuh 1.1% MoM, dan 8.6% MoM. Sementara di China, di pekan ini, akan diumumkan data-data makro seperti : BUMI 410 5.7 ▲ 1,392 GDP di 4Q16 (akan diumumkan tangal 20 Jan), diperkriakan consensus stabil, tumbuh 6.7% YoY. 2) Data industrial production bulan Desember (20 Jan), diperkirakan consensus tumbuh 6.1%. 3) Data Retail Sales MYRX 167 ‐1.8 ▼ 1,229 bulan Desember (20 Jan), diperkirakan consensus tumbuh 10.7%. 4,285
5,431
3
BIPI
115
8.5 ▲ 614 Dari komoditas minyak mentah di NYMEX, kemarin libur.
4
BRMS
77
1.3 ▲ 318
5
MCOR
212
34.2 ▲ 306
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
Hal | 2
Acset Indonusa (ACST): Downgrade rekomendasi menjadi HOLD (dari BUY), dan TP baru di IDR2,800 per saham. • • •
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Dua putra Utama Makmur (DPUM): Company visit. Kami melakukan kunjungan (company visit) ke Dua Putra Utama Makmur (DPUM) kemarin. Adapun beberapa point yang kami dapatkan, seperti:
Berdasarkan riset report, Acset Indonusa (ACST), Pandu Anugrah mendowngrade (menurunkan) rekomendasi menjadi HOLD (dari BUY) serta TP menjadi IDR2,800 (dari IDR4,000 per lembar). TP baru berdasarkan 24x 2017PER, atau sama dengan 1 Standar Deviasi dibawah rata-rata PER dalam 3 tahun, di 30x. Pandu menurunkan rekomendasi menjadi HOLD, serta TP, karena dia melihat pertumbuhan ACST di bidang infrastructure dan synergy dengan Astra (ASII, BUY, TP IDR9,300) grup membutuhkan waktu yang lebih lama dibandingkan kenyataannya. Karena itu, Pandu mencoba menurunkan estimasi laba ACST di FY16-FY18F sebesar 45-52% menjadi IDR132miliar-IDR194miliar. Pandu melihat kontrak baru di tahun 2016 yang mencapai IDR3.8t (tumbuh +23% YoY), sedikit lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan ekspektasi Pandu sebelumnya di IDR4t. Sementara proyek baru sebagian besar dikontribusikan dari proyek2 gedung tinggi. Pandu melihat proyek baru yang didapat dibawah perkiraan, seiring belum adanya proyek2 infrastrukture yang signifikan, serta proyek2 besar dari Grup Astra. Untuk tahun 2017, management belum mengungkapkan secara detail proyek2 barunya, namun Pandu melihat ada potensi ACST untuk memulai mendapatkan proyek2 infrastrukture. Potensi proyek yang kemungkinan didapat, seperti toll Jakarta-Cikampek, toll SerpongBalaraja, serta proyek 2GW pembangkit listrik. Total nilai konstruksi belum disebutkan, namun diperkirakan lebih dari IDR50t. Pandu juga telah menurunkan target kontrak baru di tahun 2017, dari IDR4.8t menjadi IDR4.5t (18% YoY). ACST total book order terhadap revenue saat ini telah mencapai 4x atau record tertingginya. Hal tersebut seharusnya akan mendorong pertumbuhan penjualan. Pandu melihat ACST akan berhati-hati untuk melakukan langkah eksekusi. Pandu melihat ACST masih tetap menjadi pemain swasta terbesar di Indonesia yang memiliki eksposure proyek2 infrastrukture.
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Perusahaan merupakan perusahaan perikanan terintegrasi . Bisnis model adalah penakapan ikan laut, tambak udang, manufacture (proses ikan ke cold storage/ value added produk), dan distribusi ikan ke pasar domestik/ekspor. Industri perikanan di Indonesia, saat ini (regulated) dilindungi oleh pemerintah, dimana pelarangan kapal asing untuk menangkap ikan diwilayah Indonesia. Hal tersebut menyebabkan industry merupakan captive market. Potensi pertumbuhan ekspor meningkat. Sebagai catatan, per Desember 2014, Indonesia merupakan negara no2 penangkap ikan tebesar dunia, setelah China. Meski demikian, pertumbuhan ekspor sektor perikanan hanya tumbuh 2.6% di periode tersebut (posisi no 11), jauh dibawah negara China tumbuh 10.8%, Norwegia 6.3%, Thailand 5.8%, Vietnam 4.5%. Dari domestic sendiri, konsumsi ikan per kapita Indonesia cukup tinggi, mencapai 41.11kg p.a Dari penjualan ikan, DPUM saat ini ditunjang oleh kapal sendiri ( kontribusi 30%) dengan net margin sebesar 25%, dan juga pembelian dari nelayan (kontribusi 70%) dengan net margin 15%. Secara historis (dari tahun 2013- 9M16), DPUM, memiliki net margin double digit (antara 11.3% -12.6%).Pertumbuhan historis penjualan dari tahun 2013-2015 sebesar 129% CAGR, dan Net profit 122% CAGR. Manajemen DPUM, memperkirakan di tahun 2016, penjualan dapat mencapai IDR960miliar (tumbuh 31% YoY) dengan net margin sekitar 10% (sekitar IDR 96miliar, atau tumbuh 23% YoY). Sementara di tahun 2017, manajemen memperkirakan penjualan dapat mencapai IDR1.5t dengan net margin sedikitnya 10%. Pertumbuhan penjualan ditopang, setelah beroperasinya cold storage di tahun lalu. Utulisasi cold storage di tahun ini diperkirakan mencapai 60%, dari tahun lalu 30%. Demikian juga jumlah kapal baru yang beroperasi, dari saat ini 5 kapal. Dengan asumsi dari manajemen, penjualan IDR1.5t, dan net margin 10% (IDR150miliar : EPS: IDR35.9), maka DPUM pada harga IDR570 per saham, mewakili 15.9x 2017 PER.
Ekonomi: Neraca perdagagan bulan Desember 2016, surplus USD0.99miliar. • •
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Ekonomist Maybank Indonesia, Myrdal Gunarto mengomentari neraca perdagangan bulan Desember yang kokoh, atau surplus USD0.99miliar. Kuatnya neraca perdagangan bulan Desember, seiring dengan trend positif dari meningkatnya harga komoditas, mengingkatnya permintaan dari negara-negara utama tujuan ekspor, Rupiah yang stabil, serta masih belum terlalu bergairahnya permintaan barang-barang impor. Ekspor dan Impor Indonesia bulan Desember, naik 15.57% YoY, dan 5.82% YoY di bulan Desember 2016. Suksesnya ekspor ke level double digit, seiring dengan meningkatnya harga-harga komoditas. Namun di sisi lain, dari impor masih belum bergairah, karena rendahnya aktivitas bongkar muat kapal di akhir tahun 2016, serta masih rendahnya permintaan untuk barang-barang impor. Secara keseluruhan, total ekspor dan impor Indonesia di tahun 2016, mencapai USD144.43miliar dan USD135.65miliar (turun -3.95% dan 4.94%) di tahun 2016. Sementara neraca perdagangan surplus, naik 14.49% mencapai USD8.78miliar di 2016, vs. surplus menjadi USD7.67juta di 2015. Di tahun 2017, Neraca perdagagnan masih akan solid, ditengah membaiknya harga komoditas, relaksasi terhadap ekspor mineral, serta membaiknya pemulihan permintaan global. Sementara potensi risiko terhadap neraca perdagangan di 2017, yaitu berlanjutnya melemahnya ekonomi global, realisasi rencana kebijakan Donald Trump dalam kampanye sebelumnya, yaitu melakukan proteksionisme, khususnya terhadap ekspor China ke negara tersebut.
Commodities
Change (USD)
Change (%)
Nickel (USD/ton)
10,212.00
10,399.50 (187.50) (1.80)
Tin (USD/ton)
21,037.00
21,155.00 (118.00) (0.56)
Gold (USD/t.oz)
1,202.85
1,197.58 5.27 0.44
CPO Malaysia (USD/ton)
717.77
734.78 (17.01) (2.32)
Oil NYMEX (USD/barrel)
*
Coal ‐ ARA region (USD/ton)
84.03
52.37
na
na
85.14 (1.11) (1.30)
Note:*Libur | Sumber: Bloomberg
Company
ADR Ticker
ADR Close 16‐01‐2017
Telkom ‐ NY (USD)
TLK US
29.46
0.00
1,574.58
3,950
(60.14)
250
Indosat ‐ NY (USD)
IIT US
‐
‐
‐
6,175
‐
50
BLT ‐SG (SGD)
BLTA SP
‐
‐
‐
IDR
13,362.00
SGD
9,338.62
Sumber: Bloomberg
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16‐01‐2017 13‐01‐2017
Change ADR Shares Local (IDR) % Equivalent IDX Close % Prem Per ADR
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