Indonesia Daily| 24 Juni 2016
♦ Berita emiten
IHSG
Index
Juta saham
5,100 4,900 4,700 4,500 4,300 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 23‐Jun‐15
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 14‐Sep‐15
6‐Dec‐15
4874.3
27‐Feb‐16
20‐May‐16
‐22.5 Last
Avg 6 month
Volume (juta saham)
5,348
3,600
Nilai (Rp miliar)
3,501
4,272
Ticker
Harga Akhir
Chg %
♦
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) : Downgrade to HOLD dengan TP baru di IDR440 per saham.
♦
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN, HOLD): Fokus pada kualitas kredit.
♦ Market Review IHSG terkoreksi tipis -0.5% kemarin. Terkoreksinya IHSG ditengah sentimen pelaku pasar secara global yang fokus terhadap referendum di Inggris apakah Inggris bertahan atau keluar dari Uni Eropa. Disisi lain, pelaku pasar juga fokus terhadap keputusan RUU tax amenesty oleh parlemen di pekan depan. Saham big caps yang menguat yait : BMRI, BBCA. Sedangkan saham big caps yang melemah yaitu : HMSP, ICBP, BBRI, GGRM, ASII, TLKM, PGAS, dan INDF.
Dari komoditas minyak mentah di NYMEX, juga bergerak bervariatif. Kemarin ditutup menguat +1.99% menjadi USD50.11 per barrel. Pagi ini minyak mentah ditutup melemah ke level USD48.25 per barrel. Pelaku pasar di bursa NYMEX juga terhadap hasil referendum Inggris, yang menimbulan ketdakpastian di bursa global. Volume (juta saham)
1
BUMI
77
18.5 ▲ 1,227
2
CPRO
53
6 ▲ 789
3
BKSL
89
‐2.2 ▼ 238
4
ASRI
482
‐2.8 ▼ 225
5
BRMS
52
0 ● 131
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI, BUY): Restrukturisasi divisi Food and Beverage (F&B).
Dari bursa Regional pagi ini dibuka mixed, meski bursa Wall Street semalam ditutup menguat, rata-rata +1.4% semalam. Pelaku pasar secara global masih fokus terhadap hasil referendum Inggris apakah Brexit ‐0.5% ataukah Bremain yang masih berlangsung ketat. Sementara kemarin, di US diumumkan beberapa data makro ekonomi yang bervariatif. Seperti : 1) Data intial jobless claims yang turun menjadi 259k klaim vs. pekan sebelumnya di 277k klaim. 2) Data New Home sales bulan May yang melemah 6% MoM menjadi 551k unit, vs. bulan sebelumnya di 619k unit. Realiasi tersebbut lebih rendah dari perkiraan consensus analyst sebelumnya, menguat +1.6% MoM menjadi 560k unit.
Top 5 saham berdasarkan volume No
♦
Hal | 2
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI, BUY): Restrukturisasi divisi Food and Beverage (F&B). • Berdasarkan riset report, Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI), Janni Asman masih mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengna TP IDR5,000 per saham (berdasarkan 56x 2017 P/E, atau 1x PEG). • Baru-baru ini, MAPI mengumumkan restrukturisasi bisnis F&B, bermitra dengan General Atlanctic GA. Janmi memandang restrukturisasi di divisi F&B akan mendorong pemulihan pertumbuhan, dan juga memperkuat posisi keuangan MAPI. • MAPI akan melakukan merger 4 bisnis F&B unitnya, ke dalam MAP Boga Adiperkasa, dan melakukan kemitraan dengan General Atlanctic (GA). MBA akan memegang 5 licence yaitu: Starbuck, Pizza Express, Coldstone, Godiva, dan Krispy Kreme. Jani melihat melalui IPO MBA, GA akan mendapatkan 30% saham di perusahaan tersebut. Dengan total transaksi IDR1.08t, mewakili EV MBA sebesar IDR3.6t, dan EV/sales sebesar 2x di 2016. • Dengan adanya dana masuk, maka MAPI akan mempercepat ekspansinya di bisnis F&B, khususnya Starbuck yang diperkirakan akan mewakili 85-90% pendapatan MBA dan EBITDA. • MAPI juga akan membayar sebagian hutang, untuk meningkatkan Free Cash flownya, dan juga mengurangi beban bunga.
Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) : Downgrade to HOLD dengan TP baru di IDR440 per saham • Berdasarkan riset report, Garuda Indonesia (GIAA), Anthony Lukmawijaya, menurukan rekomendasi menjadi HOLD (dari BUY), dan menurunkan TP menjadi IDR440 (dari IDR450) per lembar. • Anthony menurunkan rekomendasi, karena harga GIAA saat ini telah menguat signifikan, kurangnya katalis positif. Anthony juga menurunkan asumsi labanya di FY16-FY17, sebesar 12-10% secara berturut-turut, seiring dengan kompetisi yang ketat di pasar domestic dan international. • Resiko harga minyak yang mulai naik di tahun ini (naik 90% menjadi USD49 per barrel dari level terendahnya di USD26 per barrel). Saat ini Garuda hanya melakukan hedging minyak kurang dari 8% dari total kebutuhan sebesar 1juta barrel. Berdasarkan sensitivitas analysis, setiap kenaikan USD1 harga minyak akan menurunkan laba bersih 12-13%. • TP baru di IDR440 per saham mewakili 6.3 EV/EBITDAR, 15% lebih mahal -2-
dari regional PER. Atnhony melihat valuasi yang lebih premium tersebut, karena GIAA menyajikan laba yang stabil.
Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN, HOLD): Fokus pada kualitas kredit. • Berdasarkan Riset report Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN), Rahmi Marina mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD dengan TP tetap di IDR1,600 per saham (P/BV 1.1x 2016). • Meski kinerja laba dalam 5 bulan terakhir, BBTN tumbuh 26% YoY menjadi IDR853miliar, in line dengan ekpektasi Rahmi, namun Rahmi tidak merubah estimasi labanya di tahun ini. • Rahmi masih fokus terhadap kinerja secara keseluruhan di tahun in, dimana Rahmi melihat bahwa NPL yang masih akan diatas 3% di tahun ini, meski manajemen menargetkan lebih rendah sekitar 3%. Rahmi mengantisipasi bahwa upaya pengurangan NPL akan lambat. • Rahmi telah memfaktorkan keuntungan pengurangan pajak sebesar 5% di tahun ini, seiring dengan free float BBTN yang mencapai 40%. BBTN telah memasukan pengurangan pajak dalam kinerja labanya di 5M16. Rahmi melihat, pengurangan pajak masih cukup untuk menopang beban provisi di tahun ini, yang diperkirakan mencapai IDR788miliar, dan mendukung kinerja pertumbuhan laba di tahun ini sebesr 23% YoY tahun ini.
Commodities
Nickel (USD/ton)
23‐06‐2016 22‐06‐2016
Change (USD)
Key corporate actions
Change (%)
Cum date
Ex date
Company
Action
23-Jun-16
24-Jun-16
Taisho Pharmaceutical Indonesia (SQBI)
Cash Dividend
Price (IDR) Note 16
9,179.00
9,183.25 (4.25) (0.05)
23-Jun-16
24-Jun-16
Duta Pertiwi Nusantara (DPNS)
Cash Dividend
5
Tin (USD/ton)
17,277.00
17,184.00 93.00 0.54
23-Jun-16
24-Jun-16
Gema GrahaSarana (GEMA)
Cash Dividend
16
Gold (USD/t.oz)
1,256.84
1,266.32 (9.48) (0.75)
23-Jun-16
24-Jun-16
Maskapai Reasuransi (MREI)
Cash Dividend
50
24-Jun-16
27-Jun-16
Tifa Finance (TIFA)
Cash Dividend
25-Jun-16
26-Jun-16
Asuransi Bintang (ASBI)
Stock Split
28-Jun-16
29-Jun-16
Gudang Garam (GGRM)
Cash Dividend
2,600.0
28-Jun-16
29-Jun-16
Soechi Lines (SOCI)
Cash Dividend
7.5
28-Jun-16
29-Jun-16
Tempo Scan Pacific (TSPC)
Cash Dividend
50.0
CPO Malaysia (USD/ton)
621.35
Oil NYMEX (USD/barrel)
50.11
Coal ‐ ARA region (USD/ton)
54.12
*
na
na
49.13 0.98 1.99 62.40 (8.28) (13.27)
Note:*Libur | Sumber: Bloomberg
Company
ADR Ticker
ADR Close 23‐06‐2016
Telkom ‐ NY (USD)
TLK US
59.65
2.04
3,160.97
3,860
(18.11)
250
Indosat ‐ NY (USD)
IIT US
‐
‐
‐
6,500
‐
50
BLT ‐SG (SGD)
BLTA SP
‐
‐
‐
IDR
13,248.00
SGD
9,915.02
Change ADR Local (IDR) % Equivalent IDX Close % Prem
Shares Per ADR
‐
Sumber: Bloomberg
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7 ratio 1(old): 2 (new)
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