Indonesia Daily| 30 Januari 2017
IHSG
♦ Berita emiten
Index
♦
AKR Corporindo (AKRA, BUY): Momentum pertumbuhan di tahun 2017.
35,000
♦
PT PP Persero (PTPP, BUY): Kontrak baru meningkat menjadi IDR4.3t di January 2017.
30,000
♦
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE, BUY): Membukukan marketing sales IDR6,3t di tahun 2016.
Juta saham
6,000 5,500
25,000 5,000
20,000
4,500
15,000
Market Review
10,000 IHSG cenderung bergerak flat, ditutup -0.1% pada Jumat kemarin. Bergerak flatnya IHSG ditengah sepinya
4,000
sentimen, dimana menjelang hari raya imlek, banyak pelaku pasar yang mengurangi aktivitasnya di bursa. Di pekan ini, pelaku pasar fokus terhadap data Inflasi bulan January 2017, yang akan diumumkan tanggal 1 0 Feb (rabu ini). Bank Indonesia memperkirakan inflasi bulan January mencapai 0.69% MoM, dipicu oleh kenaikan tarif tenaga listik untuk pelanggan 900 Va, dan juga kenaikan adminsitrasi STNK. Adapun saham big caps bergerak dua arah. Saham big caps yang ditutup positif seperti : BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, PGAS, INTP, ‐0.1% ASII. Sedankgna saham big caps yang ditutup melemah, seperti : HMSP, TLKM, GGRM, UNTR, UNVR, CPIN. Sementara saham grup bakrie masih mendominasi top volume perdagangan, seperti : BRMS, ELTY, ENRG, DEWA, BUMI, ditengah rencana restrukturisasi hutangnya. Investor asing mulai perlahan-lahan melakukan aksi beli, dimana Jumat kemarin asing melakukan net buying sebesar IDR380miliar. Sementara mata uang Rupiah masih bergerak stabil, di level IDR13,300an, atau di tutup di level IDR13,360/USD pada Jumat kemarin. 5,000
3,500 27‐Jan‐16
5312.8
‐4.8 Last
Avg 6 month
Volume (juta saham)
14,717
7,822
Nilai (Rp miliar)
4,291
5,324
Top 5 saham berdasarkan volume No
Ticker
Harga Akhir
Chg %
1
BRMS
134
9.8 ▲
2
ELTY
56
7.7 ▲
3
ENRG
70
6.1 ▲
4
DEWA
89
6 ▲
5
MYRX
156
‐1.3 ▼
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Kim Eng
Dari bursa regional hari ini banyak yang libur (Lunar New Year/imlek), seperti : China, Hongkong, Korea Selatan, Vietnam. Taiwan, Malaysia, dan Singapore. Sementara Bursa Wall Street ditutup melemah tipis pada Jumat kemarin, Indeks Dow Jones ditutup -0.04%, dan S& P 500 -0.09%. Bergerak melemah tipisnya bursa Wall Street, dipicu oleh pelaku pasar yang fokus terhadap kebijakan Presiden Donald Trump yang melarang sementara imigrasi dari para pengungsi dari 7 negara Muslim. Disisi lain, pada Jumat pekan Volume kemarin, diumumkan data GDP Annualized US kwartal IV di 4Q16, yang tumbuh 1.9% QoQ, lebih rendah (juta saham) dari bulan sebelumnya, tumbuh 3.5% QoQ, serta dibawah perkiraan consensus economist sebelumnya, 2,725 tumbuh 2.2% QoQ. Pelaku pasar fokus terhadap GDP yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan, dipicu oleh ekspor US melemah di 4Q16, sebesar 4.3%. terburuknya sejak awal tahun 2015. Kondisi tersebut memicu 2,656 kekhawatiran Presiden Donald Trump yang akan mengenakan tarif yang tinggi terhadap negara partner dagang terbesarnya, seperti : China, Canada, dan Mexico. Kondisi tersebut akan memicu perang dagang. 1,895 Dari komoditas minyak mentah di NYMEX masih stabil di level USD53 per barrel Jumat kemarin (-1.1%) 1,316 menjadi USD53.17 per barrel. Bergerak melemahnya minyak mentah dipicu oleh spekulasi US akan meningkatkan aktivitas rigs minyaknya, ditengah negara OPEC dan Non-OPEC yang berupaya untuk 1,171 menurunkan produksi minyaknya. Menurut data dari Baker Hughes Inc, aktvitas rigs minyak US naik 15 rigs menjadi 566rigs di pekan kemarin.
Hal | 2
AKR Corporindo (AKRA, BUY): Momentum pertumbuhan di tahun 2017. • •
• •
•
•
•
•
PT PP Persero (PTPP, BUY): Kontrak baru meningkat menjadi IDR4.3t di January 2017.
Berdasarkan riset report AKR Corporindo (AKRA), Isnaputra Iskandar mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY, dengan menaikan TP menjadi IDR7,800 per lembar (dari IDR7,500 per lembar). Isnaputra menaikkan TP berbasis Sum of The Part (SOTP) methodology menjadi IDR7,800 per lembar, setelah memfaktorkan penurunan tingkat diskonto menjadi 10.2% untuk bisnis AKR non industrial land, ditengah membaiknya kondisi ekonomi. Katalis untuk saham AKRA, yaitu: meningkatnya volume BBM, serta meningkatnya margin, dikarenakan memulihnya permintaan, khususnya dari sektor batu bara. Isnaputra memperkirakan laba bersih AKRA sebesar IDR238miliar di 4Q16 ( tumbuh +14.6% QoQ, -0.8% YoY), membawa laba bersih secara keseluruhan di tahun 2016, mencapai IDR1,026miliar, in line sesuai dengan perkiraannya. Kuatnya laba di 4Q16 kemungkinan akan ditopang oleh meningkatnya volume distribusi BBM mencapai 535k KL (+9.1% QoQ, -0.7% YoY), seiring membaiknya harga batu bara. Isnaputra juga memperkirakan gross margin (campuran) tetap tinggi sekitar 13%, dikarenakan meningkatnya permintaan untuk segmen distribusi BBM. Di tahun 2017, Isnaputra memperkirakan laba bersih akan bertumbuh 33% YoY menjadi IDR1,364miliar, dipicu oleh meningkatnya volume penjualan BBM menjadi 2,279k KL (tumbuh +9.9% YoY), naiknya harga rata-rata harga jual (ASP) dan juga menguatnya margin kotor di sekitar 13%. Isnaputra memperkirakan volume pertumbuhan akan dipicu oleh sektor batubara dan retail, yang memberikan kontribusi 30% dan 9% terhadap total volume. Sektor retail akan tumbuh 41.9% dipicu oleh tambahan 15 stasiun SPBU dan juga produk baru. Sementara di sektor batubara, permintaan meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya strip ratio. Isnaputra mengasumsikan permintaan BBM dari Freeport di tahun 2017 akan turun 50% seiring dengan turunnya penjualan mineral konsentrat. Volume penjualan BBM ke Freeport diperkirakan mencapai 7-8% di tahun 2016. Isnaputra melihat dampak minimal dari hal tersebut terhadap laba AKR. Setiap penurunan 10 KL volume penjualan Freeport, akan menurunkan laba bersih AKR sebesar 0.4%.
•
•
Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia, PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ) mengantongi kontrak baru senilai IDR4.3t pada 3 pekan pertama 2017. Raihan tersebut meningkat 290% dibandingkan dengan IDR1.1t pada periode yang sama tahun lalu. Sejumlah proyek yang diperoleh perseroan antara lain proyek paket rekonstruksi atau peningkatan struktur jalan Karangnongko-Wangon di Jawa Tengah senilai IDR1.19t dan proyek jalan tol Cileunyi, Sumedang dan Dawuan di Jawa Barat IDR1.5t.
Comment: Menurut Pandu Anugrah, analyst konstruksi Maybank-KE, pencapaian kontrrak di January 2017, mewakili 12% dari target kontrak baru tahun ini sebesar IDR37t. Pandu melihat kuatnya kontrak baru di January 2017, tidak mengindikasikan potensi revisi di kontrak target. Karena proyek tersebut diharapkan diterima di bulan January.
Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE, BUY): Membukukan marketing sales IDR6,3t di tahun 2016. •
•
Dikutip dari Bisnis Indonesia, Perusahaan properti PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk. meraup pendapatan prapenjualan atau marketing sales senilai Rp6,3 triliun sepanjang 2016, atau 93% dari target perseroan sebesar Rp6,8 triliun. Direktur Hermawan Wijaya mengatakan marketing sales perseroan tahun lalu disumbang segment residential sebesar IDR3.6t atau 58% dari total penjualan.
Comment: Meski marketing sales di FY16 mencapai 6,3t (-7.5% YoY, dan dibawah perkiraan Maybank KE, di IDR6.8t). Namun Aurelia memperkirakan di tahun ini, marketing sales akan naik 20% YoY sebesar menjadi IDR7.53t. Hal tersebut didukung oleh penjualan 19ha lahan ke JV mitshubisi, dan juga tingginya eksposure di segmen mass market (menengah ke bawah).
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Commodities
Nickel (USD/ton)
27‐01‐2017 26‐01‐2017
Change (USD)
Change (%)
9,420.50
9,352.50 68.00 0.73
Tin (USD/ton)
19,897.00
19,935.75 (38.75) (0.19)
Gold (USD/t.oz)
1,191.30
1,188.55 2.75 0.23
CPO Malaysia (USD/ton)
731.64
730.93 0.72 0.10
Oil NYMEX (USD/barrel)
53.17
53.78 (0.61) (1.13)
Coal ‐ ARA region (USD/ton)
80.96
82.70 (1.74) (2.10)
Note:*Libur | Sumber: Bloomberg
Company
ADR Ticker
ADR Close 27‐01‐2017
Telkom ‐ NY (USD)
TLK US
29.31
(0.37)
1,566.33
3,890
(59.73)
250
Indosat ‐ NY (USD)
IIT US
‐
‐
‐
6,200
‐
50
BLT ‐SG (SGD)
BLTA SP
‐
‐
‐
IDR
13,360.00
SGD
9,349.06
Change ADR Local (IDR) % Equivalent IDX Close % Prem
Shares Per ADR
‐
Sumber: Bloomberg Note:*Libur
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