ECONOMICALLY FEASIBILITY STUDY OF SPBU ESTABLISHMENT BY PT. PERTAMINA (PERSERO) AT BEKASI INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRIAL ESTATE AREA FINAL PROJECT
By: R. KIBAR ADHIHARSA KUSUMAH 19007079
Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung
VALIDATION PAGE
ECONOMICALLY FEASIBILITY STUDY OF SPBU ESTABLISHMENT BY PT. PERTAMINA (PERSERO) AT BEKASI INTERNATIONAL INDUSTRIAL ESTATE AREA
By: R. KIBAR ADHIHARSA KUSUMAH ID No: 19007079
Undergraduate Program School of Business and Management Institut Teknologi Bandung
Validated By
(Ir. Achmad Herlanto Anggono, MBA) ID No: 999 089 103
ABSTRACT PT. Pertamina (Persero) is a stated-owned enterprise (BUMN) company which moves in energy sector especially in oil and gas. One of business from PT. Pertamina is Gas Station or it is familiar as SPBU (Stasiun Pengisian Bahan bakar Umum). SPBU is a public facility where land transportation such car, motorcycle, bus, and truck is filling its fuel. Every year, PT. Pertamina has program to establish new SPBU to broaden the distribution of fuel for public. In 2010, one of the areas that would be targeted by PT. PERTAMINA as the place for the establishment of new SPBU is in Lippo Cikarang. It is located on Jl. Sukaresmi Raya, Lippo Cikarang. This area is also called as Bekasi International Industrial Estate (BIIE). Because of no gas station that can accommodate large vehicles such as trailers in Lippo Cikarang moreover it is an industrial area where the traffic from such vehicles will be very high, so this region has excellent prospects for selling fuel large vehicles which is diesel. Before this SPBU would be established, analysis through economically feasibility study for this project is one of important aspects to predict the investment would be economically feasible or not by looking the result of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PP), and sensitivity analysis so PT. Pertamina as the investor could decide to spent their money for the investment or not. Several data are needed to process the analysis. The data are SPBU components, cost components, market research data, economic factors, and assumptions. Analysis started by calculating the demand based on market research data. SPBU components and the cost components could be identified after the demand calculation had been done. By using economic factors such inflation rate, wages growth, deposit rate, and vehicle growth, the cash flows projection for ten years period could be made. Then, the next step is finding the NPV, IRR, and PP. To find those variables, hurdle rate is used as the discount factor. Hurdle rate is the minimal rate of return that must be achieved in this investment. After the data analysis had been made, the NPV and IRR show that this project is economically feasible but the payback period is quite long. PT. Pertamina should accept the project but they must concern about the change of selling price. The change of selling price could affect the change NPV and IRR greatly. Beside the change of selling price, the other factors that could affect the NPV and IRR are demand quantity and fuel shrink cost. Several preventive actions to minimize the loss that caused by the change of those factors had been made in this economically feasibility study. Keyword: Economically Feasibility Study, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Discounted Payback Period, SPBU
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ABSTRAK PT. Pertamina (Persero) adalah badan usaha milik negara (BUMN) yang bergerak di sektor energi yaitu minyak dan gas. Salah satu bisnis yang dijalankan oleh PT. Pertamina adalah tempat pengisian bahan bakar atau biasa disebut sebagai Stasiun Pengisian Bahan Bakar Umum (SPBU). SPBU adalah fasilitas publik yang berfungsi sebagai tempat mengisi bahan bakar transportasi darat seperti mobil, motor, bus, dan truk. Setiap tahun, PT. Pertamina mengadakan program pembuatan SPBU baru untuk memperluas distribusi bahan bakar kepada masyarakat. Di tahun 2010, salah satu area yang akan menjadi tempat pembangungan SPBU baru yaitu Lippo Cikarang. Lokasi SPBU ini di Jl. Sukaresmi Raya, Lippo Cikarang. Daerah ini sering disebut sebagai Bekasi International Industrial Estate (BIIE). Dikarenakan belum ada SPBU yang dapat mengakomodasi tempat pengisian bahan bakar bagi kendaraan-kendaraan besar seperti trailer padahal Lippo Cikarang merupakan kawasan industry yang banyak dilalui oleh kendaraan besar seperti itu, sehingga kawasan ini memiliki prospek yang baik untuk menjual bahan bakar untuk kendaraan besar yaitu solar. Sebelum SPBU ini dibangun, analisa melalui studi kelayakan usaha secara ekonomis adalah salah satu aspek penting untuk memprediksi investasi ini layak atau tidak dengan melihat analisa dari net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PP), dan analisa sensitivitas sehingga PT. Pertamina sebagai investor dapat memutuskan untuk menginvestasikan uang mereka pada proyek ini atau tidak. Beberapa data diperlukan untuk memproses analisa ini. Data-data tersebut adalah komponen-komponen SPBU, komponen-komponen biaya, data penelitian pasar, faktorfaktor ekonomi, dan asumsi-asumsi. Analisa dimulai dengan menghitung permintaan berdasarkan data penelitian pasar. Komponen-komponen SPBU dapat ditentukan setelah perhitungan proyeksi permintaan pasar selesai dilakukan. Dengan menggunakan faktor-faktor ekonomi seperti tingkat inflasi, pertumbuhan gaji, tingkat deposito, dan pertumbuhan kendaraan, proyeksi arus kas selama 10 tahun ke depan dapat dibuat. Kemudian, langkah selanjutnya adalah menghitung NPV, IRR, dan PP. Untuk menemukan ketiga hal tersebut, hurdle rate digunakan sebagai faktor diskon. Hurdle rate adalah tingkat pengembalian minimal yang harus dicapai dalam investasi ini. Setelah analisa data selasai dilakukan, NPV dan IRR menunjukkan hasil bahwa proyek ini layak untuk dijalankan tetapi payback period proyek ini cukup lama. PT. Pertamina dapat menjalankan proyek ini tetapi mereka harus memperhatikan perubahan harga bahan bakar. Perubahan dari harga bahan bakar sangat mempengaruhi pendapatan. Selain itu, faktor lainnya yang dapat mempengaruhi pendapatan adalah jumlah permintaan dan biaya susut bahan bakar. Beberapa tindakan pencegahan sudah dibuat dalam analisa studi kelayakan usaha ini untuk memperkecil kerugian dari perubahan faktor-faktor tersebut. Kata Kunci: Studi Kelayakan Usaha, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Discounted Payback Period, SPBU
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FOREWORD
Praise to my Almighty GOD, ALLAH SWT, who always provide me an abundance of His grace and guidance so I can complete this final project. I also express thanks to the Prophet Muhammad SAW who becomes my role model in this life. In addition, I would like to thank to:
1. My parents, Adit, Kidam, Kiblat, and my whole family who is always giving me support so I always have big spirit to complete this final project, 2. My Counselor, Ir. Achmad Herlanto, MBA who has spent much time and patiently guide me to complete this final project, 3. My Lecturer and Examiner, Ir. Drs. H. Arson Aliludin, SE, DEA, 4. PT. Pertamina (Persero), especially for Mrs. Gusnida who have allowed me to retrieve the necessary data for this final project and also to Mr. Mardian who already provide me such data and guide me to understand the data and business process of this project, 5. SBM-ITB lecturers and tutors who have shared their knowledge and experience in every lecture in SBM ITB, 6. The whole of my friends who have become the place to share in the happiness and sadness, 7. And also, the entire staff of SBM ITB for supporting the student activities in SBM ITB.
The final project is designed to meet one of the requirements of graduation in SBM ITB and also to test students' ability in applying the knowledge that have been obtained during the lectures to solve real problems in the business world.
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I would like to say apologize for any shortcomings inherent in this final project. Hopefully this project can provide benefit to the reader.
Bandung, July 2010
Author
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TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................... iii ABSTRAK ............................................................................................................................. iv FOREWORD .......................................................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS...................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ x LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. xi LIST OF APPENDICES ...................................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Identification ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Scope ................................................................................................................. 3 1.5 Brief Contents ................................................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER II. THEORITICAL FOUNDATION ................................................................... 5 2.1 Time Value of Money Approaches ................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Notation and Cash Flow Diagrams or Tables .................................................... 5 2.1.2 Interest Factor Relationships ............................................................................. 6 2.1.3 The Minimum Attractive Rate and Return (MARR) ........................................ 6 2.1.4 Hurdle Rate ........................................................................................................ 7 2.1.5 The Present Value (PV) Method........................................................................ 7 2.1.6 The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Method ....................................................... 8 2.1.7 Discounted Payback Period (PP) Method .......................................................... 9 2.2. Depreciation Concepts, Terminology, and Methods ..................................................... 10 2.2.1 The Classical Depreciation Methods ............................................................... 11 2.2.2. The Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) ...................... 12 2.3. Sensitivity Analysis ....................................................................................................... 12
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CHAPTER III. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 13 3.1 Problem Identification .................................................................................................... 14 3.2 Theoretical Foundation ................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Data Collection ............................................................................................................... 14 3.4 Data Computation and Analysis ..................................................................................... 14 3.5 Conclusion and Recommendation .................................................................................. 14 CHAPTER IV. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS ................................................. 15 4.1 Data Collection ............................................................................................................... 15 4.1.1 SPBU Type Based on Land Size ..................................................................... 15 4.1.2 SPBU Components .......................................................................................... 15 4.1.3 Cost Components ............................................................................................ 17 4.1.4 Other Information Given by PT. Pertamina .................................................... 18 4.1.5 Market Data ..................................................................................................... 19 4.1.6 Assumption, Economic Factor, and Other Information................................... 20 4.2 Data Computation and Analysis ..................................................................................... 21 4.2.1 Demand Projection .......................................................................................... 21 4.2.2 Assets Calculation............................................................................................ 23 4.2.3 Depreciation Costs ........................................................................................... 27 4.2.4 Operational Costs............................................................................................. 28 4.2.5 Cash Flow ........................................................................................................ 29 4.2.6 Hurdle Rate ...................................................................................................... 31 4.2.7 Net Present Value (NPV)................................................................................. 31 4.2.8 Discounted Payback Period ............................................................................. 32 4.2.9 Internal Rate of Return .................................................................................... 32 4.3 Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................................ 33 4.3.1 Sensitivity for the Change of Demand Quantity in NPV and IRR .................. 34 4.3.2 Sensitivity for the Change of Selling Price in NPV and IRR ......................... 34 4.3.3 Sensitivity for the Change of Fuel Shrink Cost in NPV and IRR ................... 35 4.3.4 Absolute Deviation of Demand Quantity, Selling Price, and Fuel Shrink Cost .................................................................................................................................. 35
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CHAPTER V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ........................................... 37 5.1 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 37 5.2 Recommendation ................................................................................................ 37 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 39 APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................... 43
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LIST OF FIGURES 3-1 Research Methodology ............................................................................................. 13
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LIST OF TABLES 2-1 Decision Based on NPV ............................................................................................. 8 4-1 SPBU Type .............................................................................................................. 15 4-2 Fixed Assets ............................................................................................................. 16 4-3 License, Deposit, and Architect Service .................................................................. 16 4-4 Cost Components ..................................................................................................... 17 4-5 Other Information Given by PT. Pertamina ............................................................ 18 4-6 Buying and Selling Price of Fuel ............................................................................. 18 4-7 Market Data ............................................................................................................. 19 4-8 Assumption .............................................................................................................. 20 4-9 Economic Factors .................................................................................................... 21 4-10 Fuel Tank Capacity ................................................................................................ 21 4-11 Vehicles Amount ................................................................................................... 22 4-12 Demand Projection from Year 1 to Year 10 (in L) ............................................... 22 4-13 The Number of Fuel per Order from Year 1 to 10 ................................................ 23 4-14 The Number of Underground Tank Based on Demand ......................................... 23 4-15 Demand Growth per Day From Year 1 to 10 Adjusted Based on Number of Underground Tank (in L) ............................................................................................... 24 4-16 Land Area That Will Not Be Dumped and Hardened ........................................... 24 4-17 The Calculation of Dispenser Unit ........................................................................ 26 4-18 Total Assets ........................................................................................................... 27 4-19 Total Operators Needed ......................................................................................... 28 4-20 Total Staff and Labor Needed ............................................................................... 28 4-21 Operational Cost .................................................................................................... 28 4-22 Summary of Cash Flow Projection ........................................................................ 29 4-23 Net Present Value, Hurdle Rate = 14.2313% ........................................................ 31 4-24 Trial And Errors IRR,I =24% ................................................................................ 32 4-25 Trial And Errors IRR,I =25% ................................................................................ 33 4-26 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Demand Quantity ...................................... 34 4-27 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Selling Price .............................................. 34 4-28 Sensitivity Analysis to the Change of Fuel Shrink Cost ....................................... 35 4-29 Summary of Absolute Deviation ........................................................................... 35
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LIST OF APPENDICES A. Assumptions and Economic Factors .......................................................................... 45 B. Detail Calculation for Chapter 4 ................................................................................ 51 C. Sensitivity of NPV and IRR to the Change of Demand Quantity ............................. 59 D. Sensitivity of NPV and IRR to the Change of Selling Price...................................... 65 E. Sensitivity NPV and IRR to the Change of Fuel Shrink Cost ................................... 71 F. Picture of SPBU BIIE Location.................................................................................. 77
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