MNC Sky Vision Initial Public Offering Phillip Securities Indonesia Research June 20, 2012
Phillip Securities Indonesia
NC Sky Vision is a pay TV provider in Indonesia, part of MNC media group. The company became the pioneer in digital TV broadcasting in the country in 1998 through its Indostar I Satellite with Indovision brand. MNC Sky Vision launched its second brand TopTV in 2007, targeting middle to lower income market. One of the advantages the company has as a pay TV provider is the use of Indostar II which has S-Band frequency that can resist bad wheather and covers most areas in the archipelago Indonesia. In 2009 MNC Sky Vision launched Indostar II Satellite with double canal capacity which has the ability to distribute more than 160 channels. Currently, the company has over 1.2 million subscribers, making it the market leader in Indonesia pay TV industry, with approximately 70% market share in 2011. MNC Sky Vision currently has over 8,000 employees at more than 80 braches in Indonesia. Beside providing pay TV products to individual subscribers (Direct to Home / DTH), the company also caters for commercial subscribers such as hotels, apartment buildings, and oil and gas companies. 75.54% of the company before the IPO is owned by Global Mediacom, a media and broadcasting group listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), while 20.00% is owned by publicly listed investment company Bhakti Investama. MNC Sky Vision has two subsidiaries, namely Aerospace Satellite Corporation Holding BV, which resides in the Netherlands, and Mediacitra Indostar, residing in Indonesia, which operates satellite.
Report Date
Company Background and Historical Events
Global Mediacom, PT, Tbk. Bhakti Investama, PT, Tbk. Others Public
M
• •
•
• •
• •
• •
1988 – Matahari Lintas Cakrawala, PT. was founded. 1998 – The company became a pioneer in digital broadcasting through Indostar-I Satellite with S-band frequency. 2004 – The company underwent several management changes and made stategic marketing improvements one of which was lending decoders to subscribers. From then on subscribers grew significantly. 2006 – Change of company name to MNC Sky Vision. 2007 – Global Mediacom and Bhakti Investama became the major shareholders. The company launched TopTV as its’ second pay TV brand. 2008 – Global Mediacom increased stake at the company to 75%. 2009 – MNC Sky Vision launched Indostar-II Satellite with double canal capacity that is able to distribute more than 160 quality channels. In the same year, the company was also rewarded Best Market Driving Strategy and Best Innovation in Marketing at the Marketing Award. 2011 – Acquired Okevision’s subscribers and launched MPEG-4. 2012 – MNC Sky Vision launched technology-based service innovation, High Definition TV and Internet TV.
20-Jun-12
Core Business
:
Media - Television
IPO Price Shares Offered Maximum Shares Outstanding
: : :
IDR 1,460 – 1,750 1,412,776,000 shares 20.00%
Use of IPO Proceeds
:
Capital Expenditure (70%) Debt Repayment (20%) Working Capital (10%)
Underwriter
:
PT Danareksa Sekuritas PT MNC Securities
Dividend Payout
:
35% of net profit
: : : : :
15-25 June-12 27-June-12 29 June - 03 July 12 04-July-12 9-July-12
Indicative Schedules Book-building Effective Date Offering Period Allotment Listing Date
Ownership Structure (Pre-IPO) Global Mediacom, PT, Tbk. Bhakti Investama, PT, Tbk. Others
: : :
75.54% 20.00% 4.46%
Ownership Structure (Post-IPO)
Peers
: : : :
66.47% 9.60% 3.93% 20.00%
Market Share (2011)
MNC Sky Vision First Media
69.6% 10.2%
Telkom Indonesia Polaris
11.1% 8.4%
NexMedia
0.1%
Highlights: -
Pay TV operator with 70% market share Strong brand awareness High entrybarrier industry
Please see the back page for rating definition, analysts certification, and important disclosure. Phillip Securities Indonesia (PSI) may seek to do business with companies coverage in its reports. As a result investors, should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision
MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012 Pay TV Subscribers in Asia Pacific 2011 (In Thousand)
Industry Overview
8000
Indonesia’s commercial television industry commenced in 1998, with Rajawali Citra Televisi Indonesia (RCTI) as the first privately owned Free to Air (FTA) national TV station. Currently, there are 10 private national TV stations, 1 stateowned TV station, and more than 80 private local TV stations with provincial broadcasting licenses. On average, Indonesian television viewers spend 185 minutes per day watching various programs.
1,058
7000
Satellite
Cable
IPTV
6000 5000 530
4000
30
3000
5,951
165 2,650
2000
778
3095
1000 25
57
1,323
710
1650
0
1,106 45
1,403
5 210
1092
1458
1,146
325
35
353
826
545
Source: Company, Media Partners Asia 2012
Pay TV Monthly ARPU in Asia Pacific 2011 (in USD) 100
93.4
90
ARPU
80 70 60
57.6 52.9
50 40
32.1
30
28.9 20.7 18.9 16.6
20
13.6 12.2
10
8.5 7.9
4.6 3.9 3.7 3.4
0
Source: Company, Media Partners Asia 2012
Pay TV Market Penetration in Asia Pacific 2011 120.0%
100.0%
Market Penetration
99.8% 82.9%
80.0%
79.2% 66.4%
60.0%
50.8%
46.3%
12.9%
10.3% 4.8%
0.0%
Source: Company, Media Partners Asia 2012
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Growing number of subscribers and Average Revenue Per Unit (ARPU) will still be the major driving factors for the growth of pay TV industry in Indonesia, as subscription fee grows with estimated CAGR of 24.8% between 2011 – 2016. MPA also forecast increasing business competitions in the industry, particularly in middle and middle-low market, while Indovision will remain the market leader in premium market. The ARPU is estimated to decrease with CAGR of 3% in five years time to USD 12 in 2016, which reflects increasing competition in mid and mid-low market of pay TV industry. The increasing market penetration will attract more advertisers, and subsequently will boost advertising revenues. The net advertising revenue gained by pay TV companies is estimated to grow from USD 24 million in 2011 to USD 59 million in 2016. The total industry revenue is expected to grow from USD 269 million in 2011 to USD 800 million in 2016. Market penetration rate for television industry in Indonesia is one of the lowest among Asian countries, and is estimated to grow significantly in five years to come, from 56% in 2011 to 60% in 2016, or equal to approximately 38 million families or around 90 million viewers. Such growth will be driven by economic growth and increasing personal income and spending, as the keys to growth in FTA and pay TV industries.
40.0%
20.0%
Pay TV was first became known in 1995 in Indonesia with the emergence of Indovision, satellite-based Direct to Home (DTH) operator. Pay TV market share decreased significantly after the economic crisis of 1997 – 1998, and only started recovering in year 2000. Since then, the media industry in Indonesia has been dynamically and rapidly developing as the economy grew with strong fundamentals, including increasing personal income and spending. Media content, distribution and technology have also been developing well as new players in the industry enters the business. According to Media Partners Asia (MPA), investments in developing local television channels, HDTV and Digital Video Recorder will strengthen pay TV market share in Indonesia. MPA estimated revenues from pay TV in Indonesia will increase with CARG of 24.4% from USD 279 million in 2010 to USD 829 million in 2016, as the number of subscribers grows with CAGR of 26.9% from 1.7 million subscribers to 5.5 million subscribers in the same estimation period. The growth of satellite-based subscribed TV channels will be still dominated by MNC Sky Vision with its Indovision, Top TV and OkeVision brands.
MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012 Indonesia’s Personal Consumption Expenditure
The country’s private consumption expenditure has been growing steadily in the last five quarters. Private consumption expenditure in the last quarter of 2011 totaled at a seasonally adjusted IDR 1,057.2 trillion, while in Q3-2011 it summed up to IDR 1,031.00 trillion, from under 1 trillion Rupiah in Q2-2011. Consumer confidence in Indonesia declined to 108.1 in the first quarter of 2012 from 108.4 in the fourth quarter of 2011. The quarterly Consumer Tendency Index (CTI) published by the Central Bureau of Statistics measures household perceptions about economic conditions and consumer consumption behavior. The survey covers a sample of 1,250 households in the greater Jakarta area. In the capital region, household expenditure is expected to rise in the coming Q2-2012, with the Consumer Tendency Index estimated at 112.56 from previously 110.23 in Q1-2012. Household expenditure for clothings accounted for more than 9.3% of the total household expenditure in Q4-2011, while in Q1-2012 clothings item summed up to 6.53% of the total household expenditure in greater Jakarta area. The inflation rate in Indonesia was reported at 4.5% in April of 2012. From 1997 until 2010, the average inflation rate in Indonesia was 13.26% reaching an historical high of 82.40% in September of 1998 and a record low of -1.17% in March of 2000. Retail Sales in Indonesia declined 0.6% in January of 2012 over the previous month. This is expected as retail’s peak seasons are during Christmas and Eid al-Fitr. From 2004 until 2011, Indonesia's average Retail Sales was 1.38% reaching an historical high of 26.00% in October of 2006 and a record low of -22.30% in November of 2006. Business confidence in Indonesia improved to 108.37 in the first quarter of 2012 from 106.92 in the fourth quarter of 2011. Quarterly Business Tendency Index (BTI) published by the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank Indonesia measures the expectations of an entrepreneurs about business conditions and economy in general. The survey covers the sample of around 1,800 managers from large and medium companies from different sectors of the economy.
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1080
1,057.20
Indonesia PCE (IDR Trillion)
1060 1040
1,031.00
1020
994.7
1000 980 960 940
970.5
Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has been well supported by private consumption expenditure in the last few years. The gross domestic product in Indonesia expanded 6.3% in the first quarter of 2012 over the same quarter in the previous year. Historically, from 2000 until 2011, Indonesia's average annual GDP Growth was 5.27 percent reaching an historical high of 7.16 percent in December of 2004 and a record low of 1.56 percent in December of 2001.
945.6
Indonesia’s Economic Growth
920 900 880
2010 (Q4)
2011 (Q1)
2011 (Q2)
2011 (Q3)
2011 (Q4)
Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics
Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product Indonesia GDP Growth Rate
7.00%
6.00%
6.10%
6.00%
6.20%
4.60%
5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 1
2
3
4
Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics
Jakarta Capital Region Household Expenditure (Q1-2012) Household Expenditure Jakarta (Q1‐2012) Food 10.23% Utilities 10.69%
Others 18.63%
Clothing 6.53%
Fuel 9.45%
Leisure 7.43% Transportation 10.31% Education 9.74%
Source: Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics
Health 6.62%
Home 10.38%
MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012 Pay-TV Market Share in Indonesia Aora Okevision 8.00% 5.00%
Business Overview Market Share MNC Sky Vision is currently the largest pay TV operator in Indonesia with over 1,162,872 subscribers as of Dec 31, 2011, representing 69.6% of market share. Through three of the company’s pay TV brands, the number of subscribers grew 44.6% from 804,158 subscribers in 2010. Indovision, the company’s first premium pay-TV brand launched in 1994 targeting mid to upper income subscribers, has 752,143 subscribers as of Dec 31, 2011, representing 45.0% of pay-TV market share in Indonesia. In 2008 the company launched Top TV brand, offering more affordable subscription packages aiming to tap into mid to low income subscribers. According to MPA’s research in April 2012, Top TV became the largest payTV brand in Indonesia with 335,034 subscribers as of Dec 31, 2011, representing 20.1% of pay-TV market share in the country. The company’s third pay-TV brand, OkeVision, currently ranks the sixth among industry peers in Indonesia with 75,695 subscribers, representing 4.5% of pay-TV market share.
Others 1.00%
Telkomvision 11.00%
Indovision 45.00% First Media 10.00%
TopTV 20.00%
Source: Company, Media Partners Asia 2012
Number of Subscribers (In Thousand) Top TV
OkeVision
Total
Sales Distribution Network Currently the company has 1,106 internal sales personnel and 507 third party distributors. Products are sold in various methods, including door-to-door, retail, through call center and at the company’s 58 representative offices throughout the country. The internal sales effort contributed 70% of the total new subscribers in 2011.
1163
76 335
804 173
604
306 306 2007
480 26
88
454
516
2008
2009
752
631
Financial Highlights
2010
2009 - 2010 Revenue grew 34% from IDR 1,055 billion in 2009 to IDR 1,412 in 2010 as the number of Indovision subscribers rose after the launch of the new Indostar-II satellite which can broadcast more channels. In the same period, EBITDA rose 63% from IDR 321 billion in 2009 to IDR 522 billion in 2010. EBITDA margin climbed from 30% in 2009 to 37% in 2010. Net profit grew 39% to IDR 106 billion to IDR 147 billion in 2010.
2011
Source: Company
Brand Awareness Aided
Unaided
Top of Mind
2010 - 2011 Revenue grew 23% from IDR 1.412 billion in 2010 to IDR 1.738 billion in 2011 as number of subscribers grew. EBITDA rose 39% from IDR 522 billion in 2010 to IDR 728 billion in 2011. EBITDA margin advanced from 37% in 2010 to 42% in 2011. Net profit fell 55% from IDR 147 billion in 2010 to IDR 65 billion in 2011. The declining net profit was due to foreign exchange loss, satellite depreciation and bond yield payout.
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%
Skynindo
Aora
Yes TV
Oke Vision
Telkom
First Media
Top TV
Indovision
0%
Source: Company, Prompt Research 2011
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Q1 2011 – Q1-2012 Revenue rose 31% from IDR 408 billion in Q1-2011 to IDR 535 billion in Q1-2012 as the number of subscribers continued growing. EBITDA grew 42% from IDR 170 billion in Q1-2011 to IDR 241 billion in Q1-2012, while EBITDA margin climbed 42% in Q1-2012 to 45% in Q1-2012. Net profit fell 43% from IDR 65 billion in Q1-2011 to IDR 37 billion in Q1-2012 as foreign exchange loss dented profits.
MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012 Balance Sheet (In Billion IDR) Asset Current Asset Fixed Asset Total Asset Liabilities Short-term Liabilities Long-term Liabilities Total Liabilities Equity Capital Stock Additional Paid-in Capital Retained Earnings (after quasi-reorganization) Total Equity Total Liabilities and Equity
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
666.2 1,150.6 1,816.7
501.8 1,520.3 2,022.1
499.2 1,688.8 2,188.0
483.3 2,579.5 3,062.8
565.9 2,881.7 3,447.7
313.3 831.0 1,144.3
442.5 939.7 1,382.2
617.7 824.3 1,441.9
631.9 1,538.0 2,169.9
924.0 1,565.5 2,489.4
621.6 13.9 36.8
621.6 13.9 4.3
621.6 13.9 110.5
621.6 13.9 257.3
621.6 13.9 322.7
672.4 1,861.7
639.8 2,022.1
746.1 2,188.0
892.9 3,062.8
958.2 3,447.7
Source: Company
Income Statement 2007 (In Billion IDR) Revenue COGS Gross Profit Pretax Income Net Income
501.1 371.4 129.7 51.7 36.8
2008 797.2 654.7 142.4 (43.3) (32.6)
2009
2010
2011
1,054.9 890.7 164.2 190.8 106.3
1,411.9 1,084.3 327.6 206.0 146.8
1,737.8 1,317.7 420.1 107.0 65.3
2007
2008
2009
Source: Company
Solvability and Liquidity Ratio Solvability Debt/Equity Debt/Asset Asset/Liability Liquidity Current Asset/Short-term Liability
2010
2011
1.7 0.6 1.6
2.2 0.7 1.5
1.9 0.7 1.5
2.4 0.7 1.4
2.6 0.7 1.4
212.6%
113.4%
80.8%
76.5%
61.3%
Source: Company
2007
2008
2009
3,447.7
1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0
2,489.4
2,188.0 1,441.9 746.1
500.0
2,022.1 1,382.2 639.8
1,000.0
1,816.7 1,144.3 672.4
2,000.0
1,000.0 800.0 600.0
892.9
2,500.0
3,062.8
3,000.0
Income Statement 2007 ‐ 2011 Billion IDR
1,800.0
2,169.9
3,500.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
Balance Sheet 2007 ‐ 2011 Billion IDR
400.0
958.2
4,000.0
200.0
‐
‐
Total Asset
Total Liabilities
2010
(200.0)
2011
Total Equity
Revenue
Source: Company
Source: Company
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2007
2008 Gross Profit
2009 Pretax Income
2010
2011
Net Income
MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012 SWOT Analysis
Strength
Weakness
Strong Brand Awareness. Leader in pay TV market in Indonesia. Wide product portfolio and targeted brand segmentation. National broadcasting coverage
Relatively low profit margin. Relatively high debt to equity ratio Significantly large capital expenditure for business sustainability and expansion. Relying on contents from third party providers.
High dividend payout (35%)
MNC Sky Vision
Opportunity
Threat
Indonesia still has the lowest market penetration rate for pay‐TV, giving opportunities to expand customer base. Growing GDP and personal spending, which means potentials to acquited more subscribers.
Failure to obtain or extend content broadcasting rights.
High Entry Barrier
Broadcasting regulation changes and adherence.
Satellite malfunction and lifespan.
Competitions from similar pay‐TV operators.
Source: Phillip Securities Indonesia – Research Department
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MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012
Research Team | Telp: +62-21-57900800 | E-mail:
[email protected] Armand Dharmasana Gunawan Sutanto Aditya Perdana Putra Pandristo Prasetyo Ginarto Venty Arnesya
Ratings for Sectors: Overweight : Expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. Neutral : Expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months. Underweight : Expect the industry to under perform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Ratings for Stocks: Buy : We expect this stock to give total return (price appreciation + dividend yield) of above 15% over the next 12 months. Hold : We expect this stock to give total return of between -15% and 15% over the next 12 months. Sell : We expect this stock to give total return of -15% or lower over the next 12 months.
Analyst Certification The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Phillip Securities Indonesia (PSI) accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. PSI and its directors, officials and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PSI may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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MNC Sky Vision Indonesia Equities Research June 20, 2012
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FORMULIR APLIKASI IPO SAHAM Nama Saham / Emiten Tanggal Penawaran Umum Harga Penawaran
▪ ▪ ▪
: PT. MNC Sky Vision TBK. : 26 Juni 2012 s/d 29 Juni 2012 (pkl. 15.00 WIB>) : Rp. 1.520,- per saham
A. Persyaratan Aplikasi IPO Saham : (Mohon persyaratan ini dibaca, difahami dan dilaksanakan)) 1.
Nasabah melakukan pembayaran pemesanan saham secara penuh yaitu senilai jumlah saham yang dipesan dikalikan dengan harga per saham (Rp. 1.520,-). Pembayaran tersebut harus dilakukan selambat-lambatnya tanggal 29 Juni 2012 pukul 15.00 Wib (in good funds) dengan menyetor langsung ke Rekening Dana Investor (RDI) milik masing-masing Nasabah.
2. 3.
4. 5.
4.
5. 6. 7. 8.
Nasabah mengisi Formulir Aplikasi IPO Saham pada huruf B dibawah ini dengan lengkap, jelas dan benar dan menanda-tanganinya. Formulir Aplikasi IPO Saham yang sudah ditanda-tangani berikut foto copy KTP atau SIM yang masih berlaku, diserahkan kepada Kantor Cabang (bagi Nasabah dari Kantor Cabang) atau kepada Sales ( bagi Nasabah yang menggunakan jasa Sales) atau langsung kepada PT. Phillip Securities Indonesia Kantor Pusat u.p Divisi Corporate Finance melalui Fax No. 0 2 1 - 5 7 9 0 0 8 0 9 atau melalui email
[email protected] (bagi Nasabah Kantor Pusat). Kantor Cabang dan Sales wajib membuat Rekapitulasi Pesanan Nasabah yang memuat : i). Nama Nasabah, ii). Kode Nasabah, iii). Jumlah Pesanan dalam lembar saham dan lot, iv). Nilai pesanan dalam Rupiah dan v). Keterangan tentang pembayaran. Rekapitulasi Pesanan Nasabah berikut foto copy KTP atau SIM Nasabah, diserahkan / dikirimkan kepada PT. Phillip Securities Indonesia Kantor Pusat (u.p Divisi Corporate Finance melalui Fax No. 0 2 1 - 5 7 9 0 0 8 0 9 atau melalui email
[email protected] dengan tembusan kepada
[email protected], selambat-lambatnya tanggal 29 Juni 2012 pukul 15.00 Wib. Dalam hal Formulir Pemesanan Pembelian Saham (FPPS) Asli yang diperoleh dari Lead Underwriter jumlahnya terbatas, maka pelayanan kepada Nasabah akan dilaksanakan berdasarkan urutan waktu masuknya pesanan kepada Divisi Corporate Finance (first come first served). Formulir Aplikasi IPO Saham yang telah ditanda-tangani tidak dapat dibatalkan namun bukan berarti bahwa pesanan Nasabah akan dipenuhi semua, karena penjatahan merupakan keputusan dan wewenang mutlak dari Penjamin Pelaksana Emisi (Lead Underwriter). Untuk informasi hasil Penjatahan, silahkan menghubungi Divisi Corporate Finance melalui telepon No. 0 2 1 – 5 7 9 0 0 8 0 0 Pengembalian uang pemesanan (refund) dilaksanakan paling lambat 2 (dua) hari kerja setelah refund diterima in good funds dari Lead Underwriter. Refund tersebut akan ditransfer ke Rekening Dana Investor (RDI) milik masing-masing Nasabah. PT. Phillip Securities Indonesia tidak bertanggung-jawab dan tidak akan menindak-lanjuti pesanan Nasabah apabila tidak memenuhi persyaratan di atas, antara lain Dana Pembayaran di dalam Rekening Dana Investor (RDI) milik Nasabah tidak tersedia atau tidak mencukupi, data / informasi / Rekapitulasi Pesanan Nasabah / Foto copy KTP atau SIM Nasabah yang disampaikan tidak benar (salah) dan atau tidak jelas / tidak terbaca.
B. Formulir Aplikasi IPO Saham (Mohon agar diisi dengan lengkap dan jelas) ▪
Nama & Kode Nasabah
:
▪
No. KTP.
:
▪
Alamat sesuai KTP.
:
▪
No. Telp./HP/Fax
:
▪
Alamat email
:
▪
Jumlah Pesanan
:
▪
Total Nilai Pemesanan
: Rp.
Kode :
lembar
(
lot)
Tempat dan Tanggal : ....….…………,………….., …… Kantor Cabang / Sales :
Nasabah :
(…………………………………….)
(…………………………………….)
Nama & Tanda-tangan
Nama & Tanda-tangan