DINAMIKA PROSES KEBIJAKAN PUBLIK DALAM DIMENSI EKONOMI
Prof. Roy Sembel, PhD Jakarta, 2011
Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
MEREALISASIKAN PELUANG DI TENGAH KRISIS
PROF. ROY SEMBEL EDUCATION 1982-86 IPB, Bogor. FMIPA. Major: Statistics, Minor: Economics; Ir., Best Graduate, Cum Laude 1988-90 Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam and The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia MBA, Finance/Banking, Best Graduate, With Honours 1991-96 J.M.Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh; Major: Corporate Finance; Minor: Econometrics; PhD; Dissertation: “IPO Anomalies, Truncated Excess Supply, and Heterogeneous Information”
WORK EXPERIENCE 1984-87 Teaching Assistant, FMIPA, IPB. 1990 Internship; ABN Bank, European Treasury Department, Amsterdam. 1990-91 Corporate Banking; ABN AMRO Bank Amsterdam 1994-96 Teaching Assistant, University of Pittsburgh. 1994-2000 Co-founder Indonesian Physics Olympic Team /TOFI Foundation & Indonesian Computer Olympic Foundation TOKI
Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
1997-98 Economics & Finance Staff, Office of Dr (HC) Radius Prawiro, Jakarta. 2000 ACUCA Lecturer: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Philippines, Thailand 1987-Now Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Christian University of Indonesia, Jakarta. 1997-2001 Visiting Lecturer at IPMI, Institut PPM, Magister Management Program University of Indonesia, University of Sam Ratulangi, Universitas Lampung, Magister Akuntansi & Post Graduate (S2 & S3) Program Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Pelita Harapan University. Subjects: Investment Analysis and Risk Management, Corporate Finance, International Finance, Derivative Securities, Managerial Economics, Banks & Capital Markets, eBusiness Management. 1
1998-2001 McKinsey & Co, Jakarta 2001-2006 Direktur Program Magister Manajemen Keuangan Universitas Bina Nusantara 2005-2007 Komisaris Independen & Ketua Komite Pemantau Risiko PT Bank Niaga Tbk 2005- Professor in Financial Economics; Charter member Lembaga Komisaris dan Direksi Indonesia 2006-2008 Academic Expert Advisor, Universitas Ciputra Surabaya, 2006- Owner/Komisaris (PT. Mobee Indonesia, PT MARS Indonesia) 2007- Ketua Supervisory Committee Asian Bond Fund Indonesia (TCW Bahana/BI), Ketua Komite Sertifikasi FPSB Indonesia 2007-2008 Pejabat Dekan FE Universitas Multimedia Nusantara (UMN) 2008 Board of Advisor UMN 2008-2010 Dean of Business School and Director of Graduate Program, UPH 2008-2010 Chief Research Officer / Chairman CAPITAL PRICE 2010- Director of Jakarta Futures Exchange
Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
MISCELLANEOUS Speaker in many seminars in Indonesia, USA, and Europe. Writer of more than 1000 articles in KONTAN, GATRA, Sinar Harapan, SWA, Bisnis Indonesia, KOMPAS, Investor, Investor Daily, Warta Ekonomi, Manajemen & Usahawan Indonesia, InfoBank, Jurnal Pasar Modal, Media Akuntansi, DIA, Bahana, Jurnal Ekonomi UKI, JAKI, JBR, Scripta Economica UPH, Jurnal, Sinergi MMUII, published books, Internet. Ketua Dewan Juri Top 100 Best Publicly Listed Companies @ IDX (Majalah Investor) Wakil Ketua Dewan Juri Anugerah Investor Utama (BKPM / Bisnis Indonesia)
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Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
AGENDA CRISIS
OPPORTUNITY 3
WISE QUOTES DURING ANY CRISIS None of us can change our yesterdays, but all of us can change our tomorrows (Colin Powell) You can’t escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today (Abraham Lincoln)
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Rich people focus on opportunities. Poor people focus on obstacles. (Chinese Proverb)
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INDONESIAN ECONOMY: THE YEARS OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY ?
Crisis is Everywhere…..
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KASUS KORUPSI
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TRENDS ON SOME KEY ECONOMIC AND INVESTMENT INDICATORS 2003-2006 2004
2005
2006
IHSG Shanghai Korea
704.5 1517.19 821.26
1000.23 1266.50 895.92
1162.64 1161.06 1379.37
1805.52 2675.47 1434.46
GDP (%) GDP/Cap Unemplymt (%) Inflation (%) SBI (%) Kurs USD
4.8 1100 9.5 5.33 8.5 8500
5.0 1187 9.9 6.18 7.5 9300
5.7 1308 10.3 17.11 12.75 9800
5.5 1641 10.3 6.6 9.75 9000
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2003
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Average
Std Dev
Max 10.753
Min 8.295
415,83 Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
9.180 06/06/2008
04/13/2008
02/19/2008
12/27/2007
11/03/2007
09/10/2007
07/18/2007
05/25/2007
04/01/2007
02/06/2007
12/14/2006
10/21/2006
08/28/2006
07/05/2006
05/12/2006
03/19/2006
01/24/2006
12/01/2005
10/08/2005
08/15/2005
06/22/2005
04/29/2005
03/06/2005
01/11/2005
11/18/2004
09/25/2004
08/02/2004
06/09/2004
04/16/2004
02/22/2004
12/30/2003
11/06/2003
09/13/2003
07/21/2003
Rp/$
KURS DOLAR RUPIAH MULAI PERTENGAHAN TAHUN 2006 STABIL ANTARA RpAS9000 – terakhir Rp 9500 Kurs dollar 5 tahun 11.000
10.500
10.000
9.500
9.000
8.500
8.000
Date
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ARTIKEL BISNIS INDONESIA “HOT MONEY MEMANG BUKAN HONEY”
•Pasar Finansial sedang bergejolak luar biasa
•Hot money, short term investment horizon
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•Nilai fundamental sulit ditetapkan
•Perlu diversifikasi sebagai risk management
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SOME RECENT ECONOMIC AND CAPITAL MARKET INDICATORS 2007 2008 8%
9.5%
INFLATION RATE
6.6%
12%
GDP GROWTH
6.3%
6.0%
GDP / CAP (US$)
1850
2020
EXCHANGE RATE (Rp/$)
9.200
11.000
IHSG
2750
1350
Source: Various
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BI RATE
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Krisis 2008 vs 1998 Krisis 1998
Krisis 2008
Pusat krisis
Indonesia
Luar Indonesia (AS)
Inflasi
77,6%
~11%
Pertumbuhan PDB
-13,13%
~6,1%
Deposito 3 bulan
40%
10%
Cadangan devisa
< US$ 20 milyar
> US$ 50 milyar
Penurunan IHSG
65,6% dlm 14 bulan
~ 60 % dlm 10 bulan
Sektor terparah
Perbankan, properti
Pertambangan, Perkebunan Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
Indikator
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Indonesian Economy and Capital Markets at turn of the year 2008/2009
SOME INDICATORS STILL OK …. BUT ... GDP Growth > 6% GDP / capita / year > US$ 2000
Inflation ~11% US$ exchange rate ~ Rp 11.500 IHSG ~ 1350
LDR > 60%; NPL < 5%
Sub prime mortgage crisis in USA
Ekspor > US$ 100 milyar
Persiapan pemilu
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Oil price ~ US$ 50 / brl
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IMPACT IN 2009 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH -2,2% SWING PATTERN (PENDULUM EFFECT) IN INDONESIA: •USD WEAKEN (ABOUT 20% IN 2009) AGAINTS IDR •IHSG INCREASE 87% (BEST AMONG MAIN MARKETS) CROWDING OUT EFFECT 12% USD INTEREST RATE ON INDONESIA GLOBAL BOND Q1
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LOWER GDP GROWTH: China 8,4%, India 6%, Indonesia 4.5% Other countries close to 0 or negative LOWER INFLATION INDONESIA’S INFLATION: 2,78%
DOWNWARD TREND OF INTEREST RATE BI RATE 6,5%
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The worst condition happened @ Q1 2009
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Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
STOCK MARKET REBOUND TO JAN 2007 LEVEL
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Source: World Bank Thomson/Datastream
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CURRENCIES RECOVERY AGAINST USD
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MODEST RECOVERY PROSPECT
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REAL COMMODITY PRICES: FINDING NEW EQUILIBRIUM
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SURVEY BY MGI •Low consumer demand in developed countries •Bright picture for developing countries
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•Threats: High commodity prices, uncertain currency values
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Development of Economy: Some indicators
2007 8% 6,6% 6,3% 1850 9200 2745
2008 9,25% 11% 6,1% 2020 11500 1355
* Sumber: data base CAPITAL PRICE dari berbagai sumber
2009 6,50% 2,8% 4,5% 2300 9450 2534
2010 6,50% 7% 6,1% 3000 9000 3700 Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
Indicator . BI Rate Inflation rate GDP growth GDP / capita (USD) USD (Rp/US$) IHSG
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Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
2011
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Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
AGENDA CRISIS
OPPORTUNITY 21
PROJECTION OF INDONESIA GDP
TOTAL GDP (USD Bn) INDONESIA 20000 17500 15000
USA 2010
10000
JAPAN 2010
7500 5000 2500 0 2010
2015
2020
2025
2030 YEAR
Source: CAPITAL PRICE Analysis
2035
2040
2045
205
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GDP
12500
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GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS
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GOOD NEWS: + GDPGROWTH: Chindonesia BAD NEWS: + GDP / CAPITA > US$ 3000 - HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT + G 20 - PERTUMBUHAN TERPUSAT + DEMOKRASI DAMAI - HDI RANK + NATIONAL HERRITAGE - CORRUPTION PERCEPTION INDEX + PENETRASI PONSEL>80% 200Jt - DEFORRESTRATION + ALTERNATIVE ENERGY - INDEKS KEMUDAHAN BERBISNIS + IHSG > 4000 - DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN + BB+ BBB - INFRASTRUKTUR + USD ~ Rp 8500 - DISTORSI PASAR + CADANGAN DEVISA ~ $ 120 M - FUNDING COST + TOTAL EKSPOR > $150 M - KETERSEDIAAN ENERGI (LISTRIK, + PENDUDUK BERPENGHASILAN DISTRIBUSI BBM, dll) $10-20/HARI NAIK 5 X LIPAT - LOW PERFORNANCE-BASED DALAM 10 TAHUN CULTURE - LOW DOMESTIC INVESTOR BASE
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AMARTYA SEN: MEMBERDAYAKAN MASYARAKAT ADALAH TUJUAN PEMBANGUNAN YANG SEBENARNYA “Amartya Sen has restored an ethical dimension to the discussion of vital economic problems.”
Amartya Sen
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– Royal Swedish Academy announcement of the award of the 1998 Nobel Prize in economic science
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PEMBANGUNAN HARUS MEMBANTU MENGAKTUALISASIKAN KEBEBASAN DASAR MANUSIA Deskripsi
Political freedom
Opportunities to determine who should govern and to scrutinize authorities
Peluang kontribusi teknologi • On-line voting • On-line polling • Community “complaint registry”
• • • •
On-line commodity prices On-line exchange rate info. SME B2B marketplaces Employment portal
Social opportunities
Arrangements made by society for education, health care, etc. that allow people to live better.
• • • •
“Wired” schools Distance learning “Wired” PUSKESMAS Health information portals
Transparency guarantees
Freedom to deal with other citizens/businesses under guarantees of disclosure and lucidity
• Consumer protection portals • Legal portals • On-line “complaint registry” • Web-based information on social safety
Protective security
Social safety net for preventing the population from being reduced to abject misery
Sumber: Presentasi McKinsey & Co pada e-Government Seminar
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Economic opportunities
Opportunities to utilize economic resources for the purpose of consumption, production, or exchange
net and welfare programs
• “First alert” site for crisis situations
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SWOT ANALYSIS for the Economy PELUANG: Pertumbuhan ekonomi Cina/India Pemulihan ekonomi AS Perkembangan ICT Kerjasama intra ASEAN WTO / AFTA Harga minyak dunia
KELEMAHAN: Cryonism (KKN) Penegakan hukum Luka akibat krisis Human Development Index rendah Infrastruktur keras kurang memadai Distorsi pasar Humas lemah Politik masih dalam proses transisi
ANCAMAN: Krisis Finansial Dunia Terorisme fisik Terorisme ekonomi Wabah penyakit Gejolak harga komoditas/tambang Bencana alam
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KEKUATAN: Biodiversity Sumberdaya tambang dan migas Matahari 12 bulan per tahun Sumberdaya kelautan Keindahan alam, seni, dan budaya Jumlah penduduk peringkat 4 dunia Lokasi geografis
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CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDED FOR ECONOMY Transportasi: Jalan, Jembatan, Pelabuhan, Bandara, Rel Energi: Listrik, BBM, Matahari, Angin, Gelombang, Renewable ICT: Voice, Data. Multimedia Biotechnology, Nanotechnology
INFRASTRUKTUR LUNAK
Law and order Good governance
HUMAN CAPITAL
Basic life skills, positive mindset, entrepreneurship Learning vs teaching Knowledge management
MARKET
Better markets for: Jobs Products / services Financial assets
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INFRASTRUKTUR KERAS
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W.I.S.D.O.M to Uncover Opportunities
Watak
Kenali sumberdaya dan lingkungan anda
I
Impian/Ingin
Tetapkan masa depan yang diinginkan
S
Siasat
Petakan strategi
D
Didik
Lakukan Pembelajaran / Capacity Building
O
Otak / Otot
Eksekusi / Implementasi dengan kerja cerdas dan kerja keras
M
Meter Monitor Manajemen
Ukur pencapaian Pantau penyimpangan Kelola sumberdaya secara optimal
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W
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FRAMEWORK Common Goal
CULTURE
Hardware
Software
Marketware
Brainware
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Leadership
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PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES EVERYWHERE PENDEKATAN INTERNAL
PENDEKATAN EXTERNAL
OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES Tangible Assets Intangible Assets
RIDING ON A TREND GEOGRAPHY DEMOGRAPHY
CAPACITY BUILDING
PSYCHOGRAPHY
PENDEKATAN INOVASI
NEW PRODUCTS NEW WAYS OF DOING ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES NEW TECHNOLOGY
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CREATING A TREND
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SUMBER REJEKI BARU: ASET INTANGIBLE (ATB)
Intangibles
• Merek / Reputasi • Inovasi / Intelektual • Kompetensi • Network /
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Relationships
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PENDEKATAN INTERNAL OPTIMIZE EXISTING RESOURCES •KENALI POTENSI SUMBERDAYA YANG ANDA MILIKI INFRASTRUKTUR Gedung Lahan Pabrik Mesin Kendaraan IT / IS
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP Jaringan distribusi Brand recognition Customer satisfaction Service excellence
INOVASI Patents Talents Innopreneurships
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•SUDAHKAH POTENSI EXISTING RESOURCES DIMANFAATKAN SECARA OPTIMAL ?
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PENDEKATAN INTERNAL CAPACITY BUILDING •KEMBANGKAN KAPASITAS SUMBERDAYA YANG ANDA MILIKI NEW SYSTEM Just-in-time TQM De-bottle-necking NEW TECHNOLOGY
TRAINING & DEVELOPMENT
PENINGKATAN PRODUKTIVITAS
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Internet and Communication Technology Better / faster machines
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PENDEKATAN EXTERNAL GENERAL TREND
Trend penggunaan ICT
SPECIFIC TREND / FAD
Pemilu Rebonding Realty Show
GEOGRAPHY
China Otda
DEMOGRAPHY
Aging population Rising middle class
PSYCHOGRAPHY
Metrosexual people Interest groups / communities Car Club Alumni Club
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RIDING ON A TREND
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PENDEKATAN INOVASI
CREATING A TREND
FACEBOOK
NEW PRODUCTS
Blackberry, i-pad
NEW WAYS OF DOING ECON ACTVTS Mini market Internet Banking
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NEW TECHNOLOGY
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SYSTEM APPROACH
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
INTERNAL CONTEXT I N P U T
O U T P U T
PROCESS
F E E D B A C K Internal Context: •Rules & Regulations •Supporting infrastructures •Human resources •Stakeholder relationship •Governance
Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
External Environment: •Market and Economy •Legal / Court System •Political and Socio-cultural System •Others
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FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY MAKING
Procedures
Results
Perceptions C O M M U N I C A T I O N
•Success Stories •Weaknesses •Barriers for improvements •Opportunities for improvements
P O L I C Y Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
Facts
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OUTLOOK 2011 RUPIAH KUAT, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI BAGUS, BUNGA TETAP RENDAH, PASAR MODAL MASIH TREN NAIK
2009 6,50% 2,8% 4,5% 2300 9450 2534 7,9% 42 66,1
* Sumber: data base CAPITAL PRICE dari berbagai sumber
2010 6,50% 7% 6,1% 3000 9000 3700 7,5% 35 93
2011 6,5%-7% 5%-7% 6,5%-7% 3500 8000-9000 4200 6,8% 30 120
Bi Pu da sd ng ikl K at S ep p em im im na pi s na n
Indicator 2008 . BI Rate 9,25% Inflation rate 11% GDP growth 6,1% GDP / capita (USD) 2020 USD (Rp/US$) 11500 IHSG 1355 8,6% Unemployment Competitiveness rank 51 Cad Devisa ($ M) 51,7
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