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Biro Pusat Statistik. 1984. A Macro - Economic Model of Indonesia. Preliminary Result of Econometric Models in the ELSA Project. Institute of Developing Economies. Tokyo. Boediono. 1979. Econometric Model of the lndonesian Economy for Short Run Policy Analysis. PhD Dissertation, University of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia. Boediono. 1993. Ekonomi Internasional. Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Gadjah Mada. Yogyakarta. Challen, D.W. and A. J. Hagger. 1983. Macroeconometric Systems Construction, Validation and Applications. The Macmillan Press Ltd. HongKong. Daly, H.E. 1993. The Perils of Free Trade. Scientific American : 50 - 57. Darwanto, Herry. 1997. Trade Liberalisation in Indonesia : Impacts and Issues. The lndonesian Quarterly 25 (2): 110 - 127. Devaragan, S.,. J.D. Lewis and S. Robinson. 1990. Policy Lessons from Trade Focussed : Two Sector Models. Journal of Policy Modelling 12 (4) : 625 657.
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Departemen Penerangan Republik Indonesia. 1996. Word Trade Organization (WTO) dan Posisi Indonesia. Direktorat Pelayanan Penerangan Luar Negeri Departemen Penerangan Republik Indonesia. Jakarta. Edwards, Sebastian. 1988. Notes on Openness, Outward Orientation, Trade Liberalization and Economic Performance in Developing Countries. University of California. Los Angeles. Ezaki, M. 1983. An Economic Model of Indonesia with particular reference to the Monetery Sector : 1970-1980. Southeast Asian Studies 21 (2) : 141 - 163. Feridhanusetyawan, T. dan Y. Rizal. 1998. Liberalisasi Perdagangan Dunia : Bagaimana Manfaatnya bagi Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?. Analisis Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 27 (3) : 258 - 278. Garnaut, Ross. 1998. Association of Southeast Asian Nation and the Regionalization and Globalization of World Trade. Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) Economic Bulletin 14 (3) : 215 223.
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Glahe, F.R. 1977. Macroeconomics : Theory and Policy. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc. New York. Gundlach, Erich. 1997. Globalization as a Challenge for Developing Countries : A Bird's Eye View on Perspectives for Indonesia. The Indonesian Quarterly 25 (1): 72 - 87. Hady, H. 1998. Ekonomi lnternasional : Teori dan Kebijakan Perdagangan Internasional. Ghalia Indonesia. Jakarta. Hallett, A.J.H. 1994. The Impact of EC-92 on Trade in Developing Countries. The World Bank Research Observer 9 (I): 121-146. Halwani, H. dan P. Tjiptoherijanto. 1993. Perdagangan lnternasional : Pendekatan Ekonomi Mikro & Makro. Ghalia Indonesia. Jakarta Hertel, T.W., C.F. Bach, B. Dimaranan and W. Martin. 1996. Growth, Globalization, and Gains from the Uruguay Round. Policy Research Working Paper 1614. The World Bank. Washington D.C. Hoekman, B. and D.E. Konan. 1999. Deep Integration, Non Discrimination, and Euro-Mediterranean Free Trade. Policy Research Working Paper 2130. The World Bank. Washington D.C.
Idris, D.K.E., Hamdan N., Siti T.Y., Safanis R., Rakiman. 1997. Studi Kinerja Perdagangan Luar Negeri Pasca Putaran Uruguay. Badan Penelitian & Pengembangan lndustri dan Perdagangan, Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan. Jakarta Isdijoso, B. 1992. Model Ekonomi Makro dan Keterkaitan Sektor Pertanian di Indonesia. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, lnstitut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor. Jakti, Dorodjatun K. 1995. Perencanaan Ekonomi Nasional Menghadapi Tantangan Globalisasi. Acara Pengukuhan Jabatan Guru Besar Tetap Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia. Jakarta. Jamin, Z. 1994. Dampak Globalisasi terhadap Ekonomi dan Perdagangan Luar Negeri Indonesia. Universitas Indonesia - Press. Jakarta. Karseno, A.R. 1999. The Role of Foreign Direct Investment to Indonesian Economic Growth. Conference on : "The Economic Issues Facing The New Government". Jakarta. Khayum, M.F. 1992. Macroeconomic Modelling and Policy Analysis for Less Developed Countries. Westview Press. New York. Koutsoyiannis, A. 1978. Theory of Econometrics. Harper & Row Publishers, Inc. New York. Krause, Lawrence B. 1994. Abad Pasifik : Mitos atau Realitas. Analisis Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 23 (6): 457-472. Krugman, P.R. and M. Obstfeld. 1997. Ekonomi lnternasional : Teori dan Kebijakan. Rajagrafindo Persada. Jakarta. Lindert, P.H. and Kindleberger. 1986. lnternational Economics. Richard D. Irwin Inc. Toronto. Listiyadi, I., Domision S., Robinson S., Siti K., dan Emad. 1997. Studi Peluang dan Tantangan Asia Pasifik Economic Cooperation (APEC) terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia. Badan Penelitian & Pengembangan lndustri dan Perdagangan Departemen Perindustrian dan Perdagangan. Jakarta. Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat - Universitas Indonesia. 1997. Laporan Akhir : Penyusunan Peta Keunggulan Komparatif Produk Ekspor Indonesia di beberapa Pasar Internasional. Lembaga
Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat Fakultas Ekonomi-Universitas Indonesia. Jakarta.
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Universitas Indonesia. Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat 1998. Laporan Akhir : Penyusunan Rancangan Repelita VII Ditjen Perdagangan Internasional. Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi dan Masyarakat Fakultas Ekonomi-Universitas Indonesia. Jakarta. Matusz, S.J. and D. Tarr. 1999. Adjusting to Trade Policy Reform. Policy Research Working Paper 2142. The World Bank. Washington DC. Moran, C. 1988. A Structural Model for Developing Countries Manufactured Exports. The World Bank Economic Review 2 (3): 321-340. Mulyono, Sri. 1977. Kecenderungan Ekonomi Dunia, Perdagangan Bebas dan Pengaruhnya pada Ekonomi Indonesia. Seri Karya Tulis llmiah Publiksi Fakultan Ekonomi-Universitas Indonesia no. 0040. Jakarta. Nakamura, Y and J.T. Yap. 1990. ASEAN LINK : An Econometric Study. Longman Singapore Publishers (Pte) Ltd. Jurong Town. Nasution, Anwar. 1994. Asia Pasifik Economic Cooperation (APEC) : Tantangan dan Dampaknya pada Ekonomi Indonesia. Seminar Nasional lkatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia. Jakarta. Nopirin. 1995. Ekonomi Internasional. Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Gadjah Mada. Yogyakarta. Pamungkas, S.B. 1984. A Medium-term Multi-sectoral Dynamic Simulation Model of The Indonesian Economy. PhD Dissertation. Iowa State University. Ames. Papageorgian, D., A.M. Choksi, and M. Michaely. 1990. Liberalizing Foreign Trade in Developing Countries : The Lessons of Experience The World Bank. Washington D.C. Pindyck, R.S. and D.L. Rubinfeld. 1991. Econometric Models and Economic Forecast. Third Edition. McGraw-Hill Inc. New York. Rajapakse, P. and N. Arunatilake. 1997. Would a Reduction in Trade Barriers Promote. Intra-SAARC Trade ? : A SriLankan Perspective. Journal of Asian Economics 8 (1) : 95 - 115. Ratnawati, A. 1996. Dampak Kebijakan Tarif lmpor dan Pajak Ekspor terhadap Kinerja Perekonomian, Sektor Pertanian dan Distribusi Pendapatan di
lndonesia : Suatu Pendekatan Model Keseimbangan Umum. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, lnstitut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor. Ruru, Bacelius. 1996. Arah Kebijakan Badan Usaha Milik Negara : Menghadapi Era Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA) 2003 dan Asia Pasifik Economic Cooperatio (APEC) 2020. Usahawan 25 (05): 8-16. Sazanami, Y. 1997. Globalization and Regionalization : Japanese Multinational Enterprises in the Asia Pasific. Journal of Asian Economics 8 (1) : 1-13. Schiff, Maurice. 1999. Will the Real "Natural Trading Partner" Please Stand Up? Policy Research Working Paper 2161. The Word Bank. Washington D.C. Silalahi, Pande, R. 1995. Dampak Globalisasi Terhadap Ekspor Indonesia. Centre for Strategic and lnternational Studies (CSIS) Occasional Papers Series. Jakarta. Silalahi, Pande R. 1996. Pasang Surut Proteksi dan Monopoli di lndonesia dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Sistem Pemasaran. Analisis Centre for Strategic and lnternational Studies (CSIS) 25 (3): 253-259. Simatupang, P. 1986. An Econometric Model of the lndonesian Monetary Sector. Ph.D Dissertation, Iowa State University. Ames. Sinaga, B.M. 1989. Econometric Model of the lndonesian Hardwood Products Industry: A Policy Simulation Analysis. Ph.D Dissertation, University of the Phillippines at Los Banos. Los Banos. Soekarni, M. 1992. An Econometric Model of the lndonesia Under the LINK System. Paper disajikan pada World Project Link Meeting. New York. Soesastro, Hadi. 1993. Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia. The lndonesian Quartely 21 (3): 311-319. Soesastro, Hadi. 1994. Asia Pasifik Economic Cooperation (APEC) dan Asia Pasifik: Sudut Pandang Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN). Analisis Centre for Strategic and lnternational Studies(CS1S) 23 (6): 473-488. Soloaga, I. and L.A. Winters. 1999. How Has Regionalism in the 1990s Affected Trade? Policy Research Working Paper 2156. The World Bank. Washington DC.
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LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data yanq Digunakan untuk Pendugaan Hodel Hakroekonoretrika Indonesia Tabel 1.1. Ekspor Pupuk TAWN Volye Ex. Nilai Ex. Volume Ex. Nilai Ex. Volume Ex. Nilai Ex. Total Vol. Total Nilai Ekspor ke Cina Ekspor ke Pllipma ke Pillpina ke Halaysla ke Halaysla ke Cina -
-
Tabel 1.2. Ekspor Kelapa Sawit TAEUN Volume Ex. Nilai Ex. Volume Ex. ke Belanda ke Belanda ke Jerman
-
Nilai Ex. Volume Ex. Nilai Ex. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jerman ke Italla ke Italla Ekspor Ekspor
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Tabel 1.5. Impor Hinyak Buri TAWN Volume 11. Nilai Im. Volue Im. dr Stpura dr Sfpura dr Arab
Nilai In. Volume In. dr Arab dr Iran
Nilai Im. Total Vol. Total Nilai dr Iran Inpor Inpor
Tabel 1.6. Ekspor Udanq TAEUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. ~otal~-~ilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke USA Ekspor Ekspor ke USA ke Hongkong ke Hongkong
TAHUN Volume In. Nilai In. Volume In. Nilai Im. Volume Im. Nilai Im. Total Vol. Total Nilai dr Jepang dr Jepang dr USA dr USA dr France dr France Ilpor Impor
Tabel 1.8. Ekspor Tembaga TAWN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volure Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke Hongkong ke Hongkong ke Korsel ke Korsel Ekspor Ekspor
Tabel 1.9. Ekspor Karet TAWN Volure Eks. Nilai Eks. Volue Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke S'pura ke S'pura ke USA Ekspor ke USA Ekspor
Tabel 1.10. Ekspor Kayu Lapis TABUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Voluae Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke USA ke USA ke Korsel ke Korsel Ekspor Ekspor
Tabel 1.11. Ekspor Kayu Gergajian TAHUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai Ekspor Ekspor ke Jepang ke Jepang ke Eklanda ke Eklanda ke Jenan ke Jenan
Tabel 1.12. Ekspor Minyak Mentah TAHUN Volure Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Nilai Volume E&. Nilai Gs. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke A'lia ke Cina ke Jepang ke Jepang ke A'lia ke Cina Ekspor Ekspor
w.
w.
Tabel 1.13. Ekspor Gas TABUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volue Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke Korsel ke Korsel Ekspor Ekspor
Tabel 1.14. Ekspor Tekstil TAHUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke Sfpura ke Sfpura ke Hongkong ke Hongkong Ekspor Ekspor
Tabel 1.15. Ekspor Tirah T A W N Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Sfpura ke S'pura ke Belanda ke Belanda Ekspor Ekspor
Tabel 1.17. Ekspor Pakaian TAEUN Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volume Eks. Nilai Eks. Volure Eks. Nilai Eks. Total Vol. Total Nilai ke Jepang ke Jepang ke USA ke USA ke Jenran ke Jewan Ekspor Eks~or
Tabel 1.19. Fiskal TAHUN Peneriraan Peneriaaan Peneriraan Pengeluaran Dalar Neq. Luar Heq. dr Pajak Pererintab
Cicilan Pen eluaran Butanq ~ e & n q u n a n
Total GDP
TAEUN
CPI Italla
CPI Korsel
$PI CPI CPI Pilipina Singapura Hongkong
CPI Iran
CPI Arab
CPI Thailand
CPI Perancls
Tabel 1.21. GDP Deflator TAHUN Deflator Deflator Jepang Belanda
TAHUN
Defl a t ~ r Deflator Italia Korsel
Deflator Jenan
Deflator Amerlka
Deflator Deflator Deflator Cina Australia Ualaysia
@f lator p f lator Deflator Deflator Pllipina Slngapura Honqkong Indonesia
Tabel 1.23. GDP Perkapita berdasarkan rata uanq masinu-masina TAWN GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP Cina Jepang Belanda Jerman Amerika
qp Italia
Tabel 1.23. Lanjutan TAHUN GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP Malaysia Pilipina Singapura Australia Honqkonq Indonesia
GDP Korsel
Tabel 1.24. Neraca Pembayaran Nilai Nilai Nilai Trq. Tran.Hoda1 Tran.Hoda1 Total Ex. Total Im. Jasa Bersih Pemerintah Swasta
Tabel 1.25. Harga Ekspor Komoditi ke negara tujuan TAHUN H.Kopi H.K?f H.Kopi H.Gas H.Gas ke Jepang ke Aneri a ke Jerman ke Jepang ke Korsel
FDI
H.Teksti1 ke Jepang
H.Teksti1 H.Teksti1 ke S'pura ke Hongkong
Tabel 1.25. Lanjutan TAHUN H.K.Gergaji H.K.Gerga 1 H.K.Gergaji H.H.Hentah H.H.Hent@ H.H.Hentah ke Jepang ke Belan a ke Jenaan ke Jepang ke A'lia ke Cina
1'
Tabel 1.25. Lanjutan TAHUN H .Tembaga H. Tembaga H Tembaga H.K. Lapis H .K. Lapis H.K. Lapis H.Timah H.Tiaah ke Jepang ke Hongkong ke Korsel ke Jepang ke herika ke Korsel ke S f pura ke Belanda
.
-
Tabel 1.26. Harga Impor Koroditi dari negara asal TAHUN H.Hesin H.Hesin H.Hesin H.Beras H.Hinyak H.Hinyak H.Hinyak H.Pipa dr Jepang dr USA dr Jeman dr Tfland dr Sfpu.a dr Arab dr Iran dr Jepang
Tabel 1.27. Harqa Dunia Komoditi
H.Pi a H.Pipa dr 0% dr Prance
Lampiran 2. Hasil Penduqaan Parameter Persamaan Hodel Hakroekonometrika Hodel : RSWASTA
Root HSE 2220.06525 R-S~uare 0. 0. De Hean 1784.50974 Adj R-SQ 124.40757 C. Parameter Standard T for HO: Error Parameter=O Prob > Estirate Variable DF 0.3 6 0.921 INTERCEP 1 1555.224167 168'1.go1654 0.9027 448.856681 0.124 1 55.497887 I LIBOR 0.0448 0.086520 2.122 1 0.183599 RXFDI 0.1488 1 -0.167349 0.112028 -1.494 0.3431 0.195450 0.968 1 0.189212 Durbin-Watson 2.228 28 (For Number of Obs. 1st Order Autocone ation -0.144 RPEMER Root HSE 1433.54419 R-Square 0.6760 0.6023 Ad] R-SQ De Hean 3444.04333
1.
1
c. 1.
d l /;31R7 "-.," r T*.
Paritlaeter Standard Esti~ate Error 2378.406508 1091.290332
Variable DF INTERCEP 1 RG 1
0.491261 0.171570 Durbm-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
1
T for HO: ParameterO 2.179
2.863 1.933 28 0.027
. .
R o b > AT1 0.0 0
0.0090
Root USE 4386.12290 R-Square 0.9921 De Hean 81495.43452 Adj R-SQ 0.9914 C. 5.38205 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O R o b > 611 Variable DF -0.540 0.5 4 INTERCEP 1 -980.337266 1816.048278 RYD 1 0.111153 0.093057 1.194 0.2435 1 0.910642 RC1 0.162629 5,600 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 2.148 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.106
1.
I
RTAX
Variable INTERCEP RGDPIN INF RTAXl
Root HSE 1073.44108 R-Sauare 0.9896 De Hean 11949.90258 Adja~-SQ 0.9883 c.1. 8.98284 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Prob > -520.701624 1580.108270 0.7 4 2.010304 2.379757 0.4066 -17.471110 31.627873 0.5858 0.080814 0.996525 0.0001 Durbln-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocone ation
1
RIS
1
Root USE 4732.93652 R-Square 0.9864 De Wean 27960.75906 Adj R-SQ 0.9835 16.92707 C. Standard T for HO: Error Paraneter=O Prob > 0.085490 -0,110 0.9 3 4.072511 0.3210 131.756085 0.7310 0.362458 0.1900 0.183577 0.0001
1.
Variable RPMDN RGDPIN I
1
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Durbin-Watson 2.053 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.027
f
Hodel : RGC
Variable INTERCEP POPIN
RGDR
I
Root HSE 838.40601 R-Square 0. De Hean 12796.33945 Adj R-SQ 0. c.1. 6.55192 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -3320.560636 5923.755144 -0.561 48.037122 52.056158 0.923 0.158441 0.062227 -38.170236 25.187626 -0.512843 0.609345 0.4?5464 0.160015 Durbln-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
Prob >
ITI
1
Root MSE 3091.38334 R-Square 0. De Hean 23810,92971 0, Adj R-SQ C. 12.98304 ..-. standard T for HO: Parameter Estlaate Variable DF Error Parareter=O Prob > INTERCEP 1 2350.311217 1172.646500 2.004 0.0 6 1 0.313107 RTAX 0.160529 1.950 0.0624 RGDRl 1 0.801211 0.113094 7.084 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 2.482 (For Nuaber of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.255 RCURRA Root HSE 389.61323 R-Square 0.9906 De Hean 6093.55976 Adj R-SQ 0.9879 C. 6.39385 - - - - - -Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable Estimate Parameter=O Prob > INTERCEP -3688.418746 1 0.0 1 RGDPIN 10.464751 0.0018 -54.543373 0.0372 ~NF -2.159618 0.8722 REIN 1.502411 0.0026 RCURRA1 0.286204 0.1880 TREND -168.229185 0.0172 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation Model : RDDB Root HSE 1104.11849 R-Square 0 De Hean 8315.69624 Ad] R-SQ 0 13.27752 C. Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Paraneter=O RGDPIN 1 0.484578 0.664888 0.729 I INF 1 -8.432910 22.294562 -0.378 RDDBl 1 1.065375 0.070082 15.202 Durbin-Watson 1.640 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation 0.080 RTSDB Root HSE 3066.97979 R-Square 0.9904 De Hean 22439.10478 Adj R-SQ 0.9887 c.1. 13.66801 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > Variable DF INTERCEP 1 -8427.011749 7323.041251 -1.151 0.2 1 RGDPIN 1 8.200234 6.553689 1.251 0.2234
i' .
AT^
1
'k.
1~1
I
I
i' .
1
--
Pi
I INF RTSDBl
1 1 1
181.038833 153.633781 1.178 12.432231 103.042661 0.121 1.040025 0.078973 13.676 Durbin-Watson 1.851 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.024
1
RFEAB
0.2507 0.9050 0.0001
I
Root MSE 1279.83946 R-Square 0. De Hean 7195.06052 Adj R-SQ 0, C. 17.78775 Paraneter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O INTERCEP 1 -2055.918706 1391.173102 -1.478 LIBOR 1 86.681036 91.265669 0.950 I INF 1 -9.668585 30.712610 -0.315 REIN 1 1.410304 0.950643 1.484 1 1.093115 0.048231 22.664 RFEABl Durbin-Watson 1.539 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.192
I.
I
1
Root BE De Hean
4.71523 R-Square 0,9298 16.05714 Adj R-SQ 0.9214 c.1. 29.36532 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Paraeter=O R o b > RTHD 1 0.000055228 0.000016372 3.373 0.0 2 INF 1 0.271485 0.090168 3.011 0.0059 1 0.524119 0.060769 8.625 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.168 For N W r of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.310
kl
1
1
Root MSE 3844.48923 0, R-Square De Hean 44275.86830 Adj R-SQ 0 c.1. 8.68304 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estirate Error Parameter=O -39.425827 86.760956 -0.454 1.758816 0.718151 2.449 -759.931165 341.348928 1.1y764 0.041125 <
Variable
~ASE TREND RMSl
p%&% Obs. f
AT^
Prob > 0.6 3 0.0220 0.0356 0.0001
1
st Order Autocorre ation
R-Square 0.0499 Root WE 4579.79051 De Hean 8468.00995 Ad] R-SQ -0.0261 C. 54.08343 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Paraleter=O R o b > J T ~ INTERCEP 1 7218.492747 2488.495139 2.901 0. 7 RBOP 1 0.124356 0.347819 0.358 0.7237 I-INF 1 105.909992 92.494489 1.145 0.2630 Durbin-Watson 0.119 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.756
1.
Hodel: RPHDN
1
I
Root USE 4189.28139 R-Square 0.9947 De Hean 44336.24585 Adj R-SQ 0.9940 C. 9.44889 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Paraleter.0 Rob > INTERCEP 1 -2436.096728 1298.lo4602 -1.877 0.0 2 I-INF 1 -9.224907 87.821398 -0.105 0.9172 RTDANA 1 0.458554 0.093281 4.916 0.0001
I.
PI
?
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan RPMDNl
1
0.668485 0.092675 Durbn-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocone ation
I
Hodel: REIN
1
7.213 1.071 28 0.444
0.0001
Root HSE De Hean
c.!. Variable INTERCEP
RBOT
147.94480 R-Square 0. 1335.88416 Adj R-SQ 0. 11.07467 Paraaeter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Paraaeter=O 306.613511 278.868726 -0.017422 0.008299 -0.009703 0.016066 -0.000248 0.024786 14.327782 5.638563 0.7$1138 0.153070 Durbin-Wal:son For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
1
Hodel: INDEX
Root M E 3.29590 R-Square 0. De Hean 65.22857 Adj R-SQ 0. 5.05284 C. Para~eter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estirate Error Parareter=O Prob > INTERCEP 1 -53.169492 14.035410 -3.788 0.0 1 RMS 1 0.000257 0.000073111 3,514 0.0019 REIN 1 0.006823 0.003154 2.163 0.0412 RGDPINl 1 0.109751 0.031671 3.465 0.0021 TREND 1 0.075511 0.928162 0.081 0.9359 Durbin-Watson 1.101 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.392 Hodel: UBERTH 179.80887 R-Square 0.7704 Root M E De Mean 239.48571 Adj R-SQ 0.7321 C. 75.08125 Paraaeter Standard T for 10: Variable Estimate Error Prob > RPHBERTH -146.923018 118.745225 0.2 7 REIN -0.431958 0.107105 0.0005 RGDPIN 2.253944 0.615855 0.0012 TREND -74.445078 31.599004 0.0270 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
B.
AT^
1
1
I
1
B.
Root HSE 1336.60251 R-Square 0.6732 De Hean 2686.74643 Adj R-SQ 0.5798 49.74800 C. Paraneter Standard T for HO: Estirate Error Parareter=O Prob > -1249.849136 2277.323156 -0.549 0.5 8 -1134.I80608 1121.503799 -1.011 0.3234 -1.330693 1.026601 -1.296 0.2090 4.511445 1.899617 2.375 0.0272 0.366502 0.183544 0.0590 349.219917 5285.885894 0.9479 3468.300365 4682.324800
B.
%
&
1
?
p Obs. st Order Autocone ation Root M E De Hean C.
!.
1367.51397 2397.98929 57.02753
R-Square Adj R-SQ
0.8361 0.7914
Variable RPHHINAR REIN RGDPIN HHINAR1
TREND
RPHHINIR
Parareter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parareter=O R o b > /T{ -5828.798624 13257 -0.440 0.6 4 -0.013527 1.749098 -0.008 0.9939 0.364869 6.960145 0.052 0.9587 0.215684 0.214148 1.007 0.3248 79.452597 454.053608 0.175 0.8627 7405.273096 10470 0.707 0.4868 Durbin-Watson 2.240 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.135 Root HSE 693.56223 R-Square 0.6642 De Hean 583.69643 Adj R-SQ 0.5683 C. 118.82242 -- .Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Rob > -2842.478202 1335.409844 0.0 5 -4596.964140 2518.835087 0.0823 -0.103726 0.530438 0.8468 3.536350 1.229946 -0.OM881 0.226457 216.602992 582.738697 4886.060839 2901.010946 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.071
1
HHINIR
1.
Variable
1
~
I
1
Root HSE De Mean
c.1.
DF 1 1 1 1 1 1 HPIPAS
65.91807 R-Square 0. 120.03929 Ad] R-SQ 0. 54.91375 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 149.968226 132.346281 1.133 -16.843330 30.651641 -0.550 -0.023478 0.046354 -0.506 0.005722 0.081899 0.070 0.348120 0.201559 1.727 -3.336085 14.144364 -0.236 mln-Watson 1.937 For Nuaber of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.027
L
1
8.34814 R-Square 0.6758 Root USE De Hean 18.31429 Adj R-SQ 0.5831 C. 45.58269 ~araveter ---standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parareter=O R o b > 35.967236 19.617827 1.833 0.0 1 -5.515475 1.807121 -3.052 0.0061 -0.014773 0,007158 -2.064 0,0516 0.006233 0.010501 0.594 0.5592 0.326202 0.164080 1.988 0.0600 5.678393 3.895982 1.457 0.1598 0.144864 1.087985 0.133 0.8953 Durbin-Watson 1.298 (For Nurber of Obs. 1st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable INTERCEP RPHPIPAS REIN RGDPIN HPIPAs1 RPHPIPJP RPHPIPPR HPIPPR
AT^
1
Root HSE De Hean C.
1.
4. 28503 R-Square 0.4551 5.68929 Adj R-SQ 0.2994 75.31752 Standard T for HO: Error Parmeter=O Prob > 8.635881 -0.243 0.8 0 0.537091 -0.615 0.5451
1~1
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan REIN RGDPIN HPIPPR1 WIPJP RPMPIPAS
1 1 1 1 1
-0.001350 0.002961 0.010070 0.005726 0.101228 0.210189 -1.123031 1.993218 0.824475 0.921868 Durbin-Watson Por Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
I
1
Root HSE 22.86447 R-Square 0.6453 De Mean 74.51786 Adj R-SQ 0.5440 C. 30.68321 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O R o b > 1 60.745946 52.701593 1.153 0.2 2 1 -1.267139 1.976064 -0.641 0.5283 1 -0.013832 0.015903 -0.870 0.3942 1 0.063454 0.040852 1.553 0.1353 1 0.028764 0.227577 0.126 0.9006 1 -0.767117 0.830435 -0.924 0.3661 -0.lG9lOl 1.429544 -0.118 0.9070 1 Durbin-Watson 2.031 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.027
1.
MESAS
AT^
4
1
Root: WSE Hean
?I. Variable INTERCEP RPHHESAS REIN RGDPIN TREND
RPMElESJP
19.28715 R-Square 0, 33.32500 Adj R-SQ O< 57.87592 - - - --Parabeter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O R o b > 132.806923 38.120996 3.484 0.0 2 -4.506014 0.729601 -6.176 0.0001 -0.010385 0.014299 -0.726 0.4753 0.089518 0.064264 1.393 0.1775 -6.493565 2.973211 -2.184 0.0399 0.6?7351 1.526075 0.418 0.6803 2.050 F!li$Ef obs. st Order Autocorre ation
pl
1
WESJR Root
Root HSE
26. 73704 R-Square 0, ,12857 Adj R-SQ 0 ,96044 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estisate Error Parameter=O . 1 -224.894526 205.368767 -1.095 1 34.790848 42.413211 0.820 0.021096 0.543 0.014565 1.612 5.021696 2.025 36.028396 -1.210 <
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan 1
-15.920675
12.426877
-1.281
Durbin-Watson 2.182 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.115 Root HSE 32.31730 R-Square 0.9197 De Hean 304.37500 Adj R-SQ 0,8967 .!.c 10.61759 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O
i
Model :
XKARJP
93.217855 50.557193 0.054672
-4.478779
15.840779
Variable INTERCEP RPXKOPJR REIN
1.784 0.226 2.528 -2.911 2.045 0.567 -0.283 1.782
Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation Root: HSE 11.,54027 R-Square 0. Mean 34,,70714 Adj R-SQ 0. 33. 25043 Parameter Standard T for Ho: Estimate Error Parameter=O
1
I
33.165441 5.294106 0.008553 0.008943 17.425029 15.266564
-2.569 0.238 0.113 3.997 -0.061 0.797
Durbin-Watson 1.258 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.039 Root HSE 15.88171 R-Square 0.3718 De Mean 49.08571 Adj R-SQ 0.1923 c.:. 32.35505 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob >
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Model : XKOPJR
I
166.317039 11.433538 0.138193
-85.215585 1.262467
XKOPAS
0.2141
120.605233 0.003808 -0.004024 0.014426 -0.042211 -6.129657 5.9?6311
1
116.213122 0.004826 0.007485 0.025527 2.350657 3.885522 4.043124
Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
1
1.038 0.789 -0.538 0.565 -0.018 -1.578 1.483 1.283 28 0.250
0.3 1 0.4389 0.5965 0.5780 0.9858 0.1296 0.1529
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
L
1
For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
Model :
28 0.105
Root HSE 6.77574 R-Square 0.9780 De Mean 32.13571 Adj R-SQ 0.9707 21.08477 C. Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 0.000870 0.001339 0.650 0.498108 0.722835 0.689 0.000479 0.000290 0.366230 0.199147 -1.951921 2.015541 0.510237 0.542728 -0.1Q0030 2.117452 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable
1
Model : XUDAAS
1
Root MSE De Mean
2200.86935 R-Square 0.7989 3621.86429 Adj R-SQ 0.7414 60.76620 c.!. Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > ~ T Q -710.110200 11610 -0.061 0.9 1 126.298079 206.137682 0.613 0.5467 1.254692 2.452950 0.6143 0.052776 0.602776 0.9311 0.733184 0.137934 0.0001 -264.105263 594.117685 -1.667042 243.503861 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
Model :
1
Root HSE De Mean
374.15798 R-Square 0.9004 2126.40000 Adj R-SQ 0.8719 c.1. 17.59584 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > -768.072870 1013.344680 -0.758 0.4 6 3.203416 120.341551 0.027 0.9790 5.747137 4.055849 1.417 0.1711 0.005924 0.013705 0.432 0.6700 0.489878 0.165607 0.0075 -4.019741 35.323684 44.I38068 36.782175 Durbin-Watson f For Number of Obs l 1st Order ~utocorrelation 0.150
.
Model : XUDAJP
Root HSE 10110.51847 R-Square 0. De Mean 34699.60000 Adj R-SQ 0, C. 29.13728 Parameter Standard T for 00: Variable DF Estl~ate Error Paraaeter=O 1 64821 62601 1.035 1 2018.005349 1054.516149 1.914 1 1940.590850 1276.804671 1.520 1 7.671104 33.647306 0.228 1 0.612994 0.256409 2.391 1 -3653.209327 2426.006374 -1.506 1 3790.220032 935.005744 4.054 1 -11787 3380.583173 -3.487 Durbin-Watson 1.654 28 (For NulPber of Obs. )
1.
'
/TI
Prob > 0.3 2 0.0701 0.1442 0.8220
Larpiran 2. Lanjutan 1st Order Autocorrelation
Model: XTEMHK
0.145
Root MSE 1733.59652 R-Square 0.6026 De Mean 1176.67500 Ad] R-SQ 0.4634 C. 147.33011 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estirate Error Paraneter=O Prob > 1 --3811.262452 3870.753734 -0.985 0.3 6 1 69.797227 431.107611 0.162 0.8730 1 30.389135 22.831712 1.331 0.1982 1 -0.241552 0.194611 0.2289 1 0.284964 0.211513 0.1930 1 976.042864 844.407123 0.2613 1 466.717223 782.497865 0.5576 1 228.024323 901.213889 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
B.
Variable INTERCEP RPXTEHEK REIN-HK RGDPHK XTEHHKl TREND RPXTEMKS RPXTEMJP Model: XTEMKS
~TA
1
1
Root MSE 15512.86152 R-Square 0. De Mean 29171.85714 Adj R-SQ 0, C. 53.17749 Parameter Standard T for 00: DF Estinate Error Paraneter=O 1 -34094 16034 -2.126 1 2122.435817 1438.377273 1.476 1 13.141488 5.024225 2.616 1 0.851022 0.136466 6.236 Durbin-Watson 2.280 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.146
B.
Model :
1
Root MSE 64479.33478 R-Square 0.9588 De Mean 227392.82857 Adj R-SQ 0.9498 c. 28.35592 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estirate Error Parameter=O Prob > RPXTEHJP 1 6511.012534 29900 0.218 0.8 9 REIN JP 1 4690.620086 4889.313297 0.959 0.3474 RGDPJP 1 10.987052 21.494402 0.511 0.6141 XTEHJPl 1 0.809776 0.140328 5.771 0.0001 RPXTEMKS 1 -6445.317501 14266 -0.452 0.6557 Durbin-Watson 2.162 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.085 Model : XTIMSP Root MSE 3.67146 R-Square 0.9037 De Mean 12.75714 Adj R-SQ 0.8818 c. 28.77967 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable Estimate Error Prob > INTERCEP -18.086087 10.564831 0.1 1 RPXTIHSP 0.018798 0.315636 0.9530 REIN 0.003869 0.003115 0.2274 RGDPSP 0.000787 0.000894 0.3883 TREND 0.634856 0.823426 0.4489 RPXTINBL 0.134946 0.270992 0.6756 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation Model: XTINBL Root HSE 2.02457 R-Square 0.8773 4.66429 Adj R-SQ 0.8439 ,lean 43.40574 Parameter Standard T for Ho: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > IT I
B.
IT^
1
B.
AT^
1
'
3.
1
Lapiran 2. Lanjutan RPXTIMBL REIN-1 RGDPBL XTINBLl TREND RPXTIHSP Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
I
Hodel : XPAKAS
1
Root MSE 6928.50983 R-Square 0.9656 De Mean 22180.73929 Adj R-SQ 0.9581 C. 31.23660 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > 0.145972 0.282562 0.517 0.6 0 0.234738 0.321461 0.730 0.4726 0.945389 0,105160 8.990 0.0001 -34.722286 64.384634 -0.539 0.5949 -79.899253 172.235265 -0.464 0.6471 Durbin-Watson 2.399 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.264 Root HSE 1175.45410 R-Square 0.9727 De Hean 3591.26429 Adj R-SQ 0.9649 C. 32.73093 Parameter standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > -4983.798093 1768.589666 0.0 0 7.077665 13.a52678 0.6147 1.499047 1.414649 0.3013 1.338895 1.262715 0.3010 0.905464 0.089525 0.0001 -71.518676 96.748251 0.4680 58.886900 38.777947 0.1438 Durbin-Watson [For Nlmber of Obs, 1st Order Autocorre ation
B.
Variable APXPAKAS RGDPAS XPAKASl RPXPAKJP RPXPAKJR XPAKJP
I
1.
Variable INTERCEP PPAKJP-1 REIN RGDPJP XPAKJP1 RPXPAKAS RPXPAKJR XPAKJR
1
-~~
1
Root HSE 1575.92989 R-Square 0.9653 De Wean 5193.42857 Adj R-SQ 0.9554 C. 30.34469 Parameter Standard T for 80: Estimate Error Parameter=O -3533.343355 4213.626693 -0.839 14.672826 48.393767 0,303 3.186260 1.858059 1.715 0.094822 0.173418 0.547 0.888044 0.073133 12.143 -53.867078 122.435089 -9.Oi0796 14.763847 Durbln-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
B.
Variable INTERCEP RPXPARJR REIN JR RGDPD XPAKJRl RPXPAKAS RPXPAKJP
1
Root HSE 3217.78111 R-Square 0. De Mean 10889~25714 Adj R-SQ 0. C. 29 .55005 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -3638.125620 3177.317496 -1.145 1 33.019561 191.533151 0.172 1 10.531145 41.244539 0.255 1 0.041663 0.087471 0.476 1 1.129319 0.072228 15.635
1.
Variable INTERCEP RPXTEKHK REIN-EK RGDPEK XTEKHK1
1
Di
pi
Prob > 0.2 4 0.8647 0.8008 0.6386 0.0001
RPXTEKJP
1
-13.820611 186.441369 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocone ation
1
Model : XTEKJP
1
-0.074 1.572 28 0.122
Root HSE 3828.93113 R-Square 0.9613 De Mean 10339.31786 Adj R-SQ 0.9478 C. 37.03272 Paraaeter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > 3603.183688 12850 0.280 0.7 2 100.913308 206.704395 0.488 0.6307 1.500818 4.771325 0.315 0.7564 -1.289839 5.082937 -0.254 0.8023 1.276174 0.107653 11.855 0.0001 -12.427792 30.208018 -0.411 0.6851 -123.872584 258.660995 -0.479 0.6372 46.171526 161.488557 0.286 0.7779 Durbin-Watson 2.341 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocone ation -0.188
1.
Variable INTERCEP RPXTMJP
XTEKSP
0.9416
~TI
1
I
R-Square 0.9576 Root HSE 3610.39290 De Mean 11925.09286 Ad] R-SQ 0.9428 30.27560 C. .. - ... Parameter Standard T for HO: ~rror Parameter=O Prob > Estimate 375.844872 9238.341080 0.041 0.9 8 600.284344 169.658914 3.538 0.0021 21.246593 5,012380 4.239 0.0004 -0.212180 0.336750 -0.630 0.5358 0.544674 0.122982 4.429 0.0003 -13384 6950.439390 -1.926 0.0685 -448.903016 227.498640 0.0625 151.398797 211.009280 0.4815 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocone ation
1.
fl
1
1
R-Square 0. Root HSE 108164.99775 De Mean 268963.69643 Adj R-SQ 0 C. 40.21546 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estimate Error Paraneter=O 1 -687759 781633 -0.880 1 4152.326984 68324 0.061 1 425.953859 81.765010 5.209 1 37.358086 52,033510 0.718 1 -12182 17202 -0.708 1 -194645 65737 -2.961 Durbin-Watson 1.763 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.102
1.
1
Wodel:
Variable INTERCEP RPXKALKS REIN RGDPKS XKALKSl REKS RPXKALAS
Prob > 0.3 8 0.9521
1
0.9276 Root HSE 81897.34062 - R-Square De Mean 169347.65000 Adj R-SQ 0.9022 c.1. 48.36048 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > 255371 216844 1.178 0.2 2 145374 141997 0.3182 160.730019 70.137383 45.192957 0.170813 241.032703 66317
pi
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan R P m
1
-69897 66806 -1.046 Durbin-Watson 2.305 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocone ation -0.162
1
Model: XKALJP
0.3079
1
R-Square 0. Root USE 218838.90091 De Mean 630671.76071 Adj R-SQ 0, C. 34.69933 Paraneter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -1362631 860639 44373 152832 234.243587 206.095000 446.656019 345.587994 0.622998 0.163458 66827 158005 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable INTERCEP R P W REIN
RGDPJP
XKAWPl RPXKALAS Model: XKAGJP
1
Prob > 0.1 7 0.7743 0.2679 0.2096
1
Variable INTERCEP RPXKAGJP REIN JP XKAm1 RPXKAGBL TREND Model: XKAGJR Root MSE 15.12911 R-Square 0.5425 De Mean 15.86786 Adj R-SQ 0.4875 C. 95.34438 Parameter Standard T for KO: Estimate Error Parareter=O 0.835740 13.418444 0.062 0.005234 0.006934 0.462782 0.177424 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable RPXKAGJR REIN XKAGJRl Model: XKAGBL
I
1
Root MSE 31.76141 R-Square 0 De Mean 43.76429 Adj R-SQ 0 C. 72.57382 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 0.390114 16.514483 0.024 0.027528 0.019849 0.204460 0.226867 1.409660 1.501452 -26.685390 36.257564 -21.864555 30.688080 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable PXKAGBLl REIN XKAGBLl TREND RPXKAGJP RPXKAGJR Model : XPUPPI
1
Root MSE
1.
1
52.72298 R-Square 0.6438 87.37143 AdlR-SQ 0.5993 60.34351 Parameter Standard T for HO:
De Mean
C.
Prob > 0.9 1 0.1794 0.3772 0.3580 0.4695
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Variable INTERCEP PXPUPPIl REIN RGDPPI
Estimate Error -503.745271 136.554399 43.159543 11.I36167 0.147486 0.033537 0.023406 0.006559 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
1
Model : XPUPMA
b,,
Prob > 0.0 1 0.7986 0.0002 0.0016
Root HSE De Wean
'49.49359 R-Square 0.7069 53.01429 Adj R-SQ 0.6270 93.35896 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estlmate Error Parameter=O Prob > /T/ 81.129497 103.471312 0.784 0.4 1 0.022723 0.035805 0.635 0.5322 0.003381 0.007841 0.431 0.359116 0.227245 1.580 -75.996944 228.272945 -0.333 -30.565057 244.346359 -0.125 Durbin-Watson 1.933 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.033 Root HSE 90.28348 R-Square 0. De Mean Adj R-SQ 72.12857 0. C. 125.17020 Paraleter Standard T for HO: Parameter=O Prob > 0.066 0.9 8 1.121 0.2737 -0.356 0.7247 4.074 0.0005 -0.171 0.8654 Durbin-Watson 1.901 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocone ation 0.042
c.1. Variable RPXPUPMA REIN RGDPHA XPUPHAl RPXPUPPI RPXPUPCN XPUPCN
I
1.
XSAWBL
1
-
~
IT^
1
RootHSE 49.64448 R-Square 0.9161 De Mean 191.80000 Adj R-SQ 0.8922 C. . 25.88346 -- - - - - - Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O m842.260054 249.891793 -3.370 29.012248 27.754609 1.045 0.112877 0.040611 2.779 0.026785 0.007816 3.427 -3.178848 67.915654 -0.047 16.934736 74.580434 0.227 0.170898 0.207510 0.824 Durbin-Watson 2.212 For N W r of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation
1
XSAWJR
1
Root HSE 22.78077 R-Square 0.8799 De Mean 48.73214 Ad] R-SQ 0.8472 C. 46.74691 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Para~eter=O 3.480764 11.348476 0.307 0.007199 0.476 0.000364 0.735528 8.256583 -16 .I96426 Durbin-Watson
1.
Variable PXSAWJRl REIN RGDPJR XSAWJRl RPXSAWBL RPXSAWIT
1
XSAWIT
Nuber of Obs. 1stForOrder Autocorre1ation
28 -0.210
Root: HSE Hean
"1 .
C.
Variable RPXSAWIT REIN RGDPIT XSAWITl RPXSAWBL RPXSAWJR Hodel: XNENJP
10.63429 R-Square 0. 39.38214 Adj R-SQ 0. 27.00283 parameter - Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 4.209842 19.702734 0.214 0.008175 0.007669 1.066 0.000440 0.000583 0.756 0.752042 0.107663 6.985 -2.745483 12.592524 -0.218 -8.600630 13.699571 -0.628 Durbin-Watson 2.125 (For Number of Obs. 1 28 1st Order ~utocorrelation -0.010
Number of Obs. 1stForOrder Autocorre1ation
28 -0.225
Root HSE Hean
817.19088 R-Square 0.8713 1031.04643 Adj R-SQ 0.8345 79.25840 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -2261.057324 1996.837106 -1.132 10738 7104.736630 1.511 0.806877 1.872555 1.723281 0.748087 0.517443 0.206753 1976.579813 11826 -9854.642519 11516 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocone ation
I
XHENAU
1
Root HSE De Hean
736.74434 R-Square 0 1371.03929 Ad] R-SQ 0 53.73619 Paraaeter Standard T for HO: Estinate Enor Paralreter=O 1.239226 1.742564 0.711 0.027166 0.024530 1.107 0.651964 0.125052 5.214 -1315.057124 999.686046 -1.315 Durbin-Watson 1.623 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.080
c.1. DF 1 1 1 1
I
Root HSE 1330.37568 Dep Hean 10580.17857
I
R-Square Adj R-SQ
pi
Prob > 0.8 2 0.2979 0.4578 0.0001 0.8294 0.5366
0.9807 0.9763
Lapiran 2. Lanjutan
C.V.
12.57423 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -11237 5474.616503 -2.052 414 .I13195 2636.273412 0.157 2.409614 1.895096 1.271 3.886426 1.822777 2.132 0.644994 0.171150 3.769 6536.581568 3800.537449 1.720 Durbin-Watson 1.395 For Nurmber of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.292
Variable DF INTERCEP 1 RPXGASJP 1 REIN 1 RGDPJP 1 XGASJPl 1 RPXGASKS 1
I
Model : XGASKS
pi
Prob > 0.0 2 0.8766
1
Root MSE De Mean
Model : RPMBERTH
486.21440 R-Square 0.9571 1346.30714 Adj R-SQ 0.9449 c.1. 36.11467 Parameter Standard T for HO: Parameter=O Prob > /TI -2.690 0.868 1.025 2.699 1.007 -2.572 0.256 2.142 28 -0.077 Root MSE 0.16864 R-Square 0. 0.75979 Adj R-SQ 0, Mean 22.19516 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parareter=O 1.438715 0.622737 2.310 1.010643 0.198565 5.090 0.000245 0.000166 1.476 0.630270 0.084400 7.468 -0.OJ3107 0.012501 -1.848 Durbin-Watson 2.197 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.123 Root HSE 0.12399 R-Square 0.9590 De Mean 0.44370 Adj R-SQ 0.9501 C. 27.94499 . .... Parapeter Standard T for 10: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > 1 4.160250 0.438800 9.481 0.0 0 1 0.997380 0.364488 2.736 0.0118 1 0.000637 0.000142 4.490 0.0002 1 -0.039353 0.006520 -6.036 0.0001 1 0.205626 0.097044 2.119 0.0451 Durbln-Watson 1.302 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.204
?I.
RPMMINSP
1
!.
Model : RPMMINAR
-
i
Root MSE De Mean
c.!.
Variable DF INTERCEP 1 TMINAR 1 M I N 1 REIN 1
1
0.04133 0.32451
R-Square Adj R-SQ
-12.73701 -- . - . --
Parameter Estimate -0.235366 -22.915845 3.102887 0.000139
Standard Error 0.078016 3.774235 0.425631 0.000043165
0.9625 0.9559
T for HO: Parareter=O -3.017 -6.072 7.290 3.220
AT^
Pmb > 0.0 6 0.0001 0.0001 0.0038
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan PMHINARl Hodel: RPHHINIR
1
0.338867 0.060816 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
0.0001
Estimate Error ParaneterzO -0.164635 0.052532 -3.134 -1.881105 0.772161 -2.436 2.191529 0.339405 6.457 0.000988 0.001548 0.638 0.261536 0.092143 2.838 Durbin-Watson 1.559 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.008
Rob > 0.0 4 0.0230 0.0001 0.5295 0.0093
I 1 0.06741 R-Square 0.8877 Root HSE 0.30075 Adj R-SQ 0.8681 8. ,lean 22.41455 Parameter Standard T for HO:
DF 1 1 1 1 1 Hodel : RPHPIPJP
5.572 1.057 28 0.371
I
0.24522 R-Square 0.9305 Root MSE De Mean 1.90667 Ad J R-SQ 0.9147 C. 12.86093 Parameter Standard T for 00: DF Estilaate Error Parameter=O R o b > T,/d 1 1.713846 0.447864 3.827 0.0 0 1 4.169018 4.696778 0.888 0.3843 1 1.118219 0.321761 3.475 0.0021 1 0.053409 0.022885 2.334 0.0291 1 0.075777 0.109163 0.694 0.4948 -0.135849 0.027384 -4.961 0.0001 1 Durbin-Watson 1.195 (For N W e r of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation 0.378
1.
Hodel : RPMPIPAS
1
Root M E 1.02337 R-Square 0.6534 De Mean 3.74802 Adj R-SQ 0.5931 C. 27.30418 Parameter Standard TforHO: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O R o b > 1 -2.822025 1.720932 -1.640 0.1 4 1 0.427761 0.367587 1.164 0.2565 1 1.819417 0.843187 2.158 0.0416 1 0.001065 0.000396 2.688 0.0131 1 0.448985 0.217251 2.067 0.0502 Durbin-Watson 1.810 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.046
1.
IT/,
I
1
Root HSE 1.08968 R-Square 0. De b a n 3.59096 Ad] R-SQ 0. C. 30.34517 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estlmate DF Error Parameter=O 1 3.509722 1.771042 1.982 1 2.320714 0.413470 5.613 1 1.315344 0.861713 1.526 1 0.004750 0.004277 1.111 1 -0.312538 0.056730 -5.509 1 0.028116 0.147923 0.190
1.
1
pF;$%f Obs. 2.240 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.160
Hodel : RPHNESJP
Root HSE De Hean C.
I.
1.58969 9.97655 15.93425
R-Square Adj R-SQ
0.8455 0.8186
Laepiran 2. Lanjutan Parameter Standard Estimate Error 7.844486 2.057050 4.101866 5.930114 1.701365 0.435845 0.303005 0.139936 -0.865425 0.178159 Durbin-Watson For Nuaber of Obs. st Order Autocorre atic
Variable INTERCEP TMESJP RPWMES REIN-JP TREND
1
Model:
T for 00: Prob 0. 0.4960
1
Root: MSE Hean
4.63017 R-Square 0. 16.42071 Adj R-SQ 0. 28.19715 Parayeter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Paraaeter=O 17.404394 7.305887 2.382 1.186365 0.417137 2.844 0.226773 0.841631 0.269 0.003066 0.003720 0.824 0.159894 0.195648 0.817 -0.826410 0.298685 -2.767 Durbln-Watson 1.390 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.099
Variable INTERCEP TMESAS RPWMES REIN PHMESASl
TREND
1
Model:
1
Root MSE 1.62396 R-Square 0. De Hean 18.55588 Adj R-SQ 0. C. 8.75174 Para~eter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parareter=O 16.609802 2.933855 5.661 1.306057 0.218536 5.976 0.755410 0.331686 2.277 0.004369 0.001155 3.783 0.207752 0.108327 1.918 -1.248661 0.171321 -7.288 Durbin-Watson 1.812 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.072
1.
Variable INTERCEP TMESJR RPWHES REIN PMMESJRl TREND
1
kl
Prob > 0.0 0 0.0001
1
Root MSE
?I. Variable DF TKARAS 1 RPWKAR 1 REIN 1 PxKARAS1 1 Model:
0.33521 R-Square 0.9756 1.76927 Adj R-SQ 0.9716 Mean 18.94619 Paraaeter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O k o b ob, -1.620155 1.270005 -1.276 0.2 4 0.596985 0.194807 3.064 0.0053 -0.000138 0.000087380 -1.576 0.1282 0.7!4507 0.095223 7.503 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.809 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.061
1
1
Root MSE 0.34469 R-Square 0.9740 De Mean 1.74349 Ad] R-SQ 0.9697 C. 19.77003 Parameter Standard T for 00: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > TKARSP 1 -1.047330 1.810077 -0.579 0.5 8 RPWKAR -1 0.726046 0.289145 2.511 0.0192 REIN-SP 1 -0.000307 0.000154 -1.987 0.0585 PXKARSPl 1 0.630687 0.095608 6.597 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.413 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.253
1.
AT^
!
1
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Model: RPXKARJP Root M E De Mean
0.44176 R-Square 0.9575 1.73477 Adj R-SQ 0.9504 25.46497 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Prob > -2.390639 0.669439 0.0 1 0.753724 0.215372 0.0018 -0.000148 0.000111 0.617450 0.110709
c.1.
AT^
Variable
TKARJP
RPWKAR
REIN
1
f%'!P Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
RPXKOPAS
Root HSE
1.18722 R-Square 0.8578 4.20377 Adj R-SQ 0.8400 28.24179 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estirate Error Prob > 2.365474 1.539234 0.1 7 -3.801839 0.757980 0.0001 1.433486 0.190430 0.0001 -0.OQO510 0.000814 0.5366 Durbln-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
De Mean
C. Variable INTERCEP TKOPAS M O P REIN
1.
pi
1
Model:
1
Root: HSE Mean
1.04831 R-Square 0. 4.44603 Ad] R-SQ 0, 23.57849 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 2.183306 1.131551 1.929 -4.113528 0.745076 -5.521 1.255550 0.167494 7.496 -0.000142 0.000920 -0.154 0.190129 0.101078 1.881 Durbin-Watson 1.355 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.318
Variable INTERCEP TKOPJR RPWKOP REIN JR PXKOPJRl
1
Model :
1
Root HSE
0.84362 R-Square 0, 4.38694 Adj R-SQ 0, 19.23028 Parameter Standard T for 00: Estimate Error 2.051783 0,820548 -2.898980 0,730594 1,213550 0.132693 -0.124598 0.049084 0.127799 Durbin-Watson l For Nunber of Obs. l 1st Order ~utocorrelation 0.480
RMean Variable INTERCEP TKOPJP RPWKOP REIN-JP PXKOPJPl Model: RPXUDAAS
Root HSE
2.29464 R-Square 0.6023 9.55333 Adj R-SQ 0.5331 24.01922 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 1.366686 0.328 4.I64732 -1.176582 0.445705 -2.640 0.737047 0.355088 2.076 -0.000514 0.001321 -0.389 0.373145 0.177600 2.101 Durbln-Watson 1.281
3." Variable DF INTERCEP . 1 TUDMS 1 RPWUDA 1 REIN 1 PXUDAASl 1
PQ
0.7 > 5 0.0146 0.0493 0.7006 0.0468
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Nurber of Obs. Autocorre1ation 1stForOrder
Hodel: RPXUDAHK
28 0.307
Root NSE
0.79238 R-Square 0.9295 7.65992 Adj R-SQ 0.9173 10.34455 Paraneter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Paraaeter=O R o b > 5.490276 1.368814 4.011 0.0 0 -0.944604 0.184806 0.0001 0.506696 0.142763 0.0017 -0.004541 0.004142 0.2843 0.181427 0.129814 0.1756 Durbin-Watson For Nunber of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
De Mean
C.
1.
Variable INTERCEP TUDAHK RPWUDA REIN HK Pxm-AHKl
I
Hodel : RPXUDAJP
1
Root NSE De Hean
c.1. Variable INTERCEP TUDAJP RPWUDA REIN PXUDAJPl
1.85485 R-Square 0.8055 11,36964 Adj R-SQ 0.7716 16.31403 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O 1.353124 3.240095 -0.999848 0.451990 1.011880 0.250782 -0.002113 0.001115 0.174089 0.145955 Durbin-Watson (For Number of Obs. 1st Order Autocorre ation
1
Model: RPXTEMBK
Root MSE 0.66762 R-Square 0.6756 De Mean 2.35696 Adj R-SQ 0.6192 C. 28.32557 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O R o b > 3.571769 1.123371 3.180 0.0 4 -1.402058 0.392328 0.0016 0.338756 0.238286 0.1686 -0.001354 0.000415 0.0034 0.109547 0.143946 0.4544 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable INTERCEP TTEMHK RPWTEM REIN PXTEHHKl
I
1
Root MSE
1.79454 R-Square 0. 2.93187 Adj R-SQ 0. 61.20794 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -1.230928 4.365265 -0.282 -2.014677 0.879740 -2.290 1.707375 0.319835 0.001208 0.004824 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
:I. Variable INTERCEP
TTEHKS
RPWTEHl REKS
1
Hodel :
1
Root BE 0 ,54370 R-Square 0. De Mean 1,58155 0. Adj R-SQ C. 34,37782 Parameter Standard T for Ho: Variable DF Estimate Error Parareter=O INTERCEP 1 -3.282488 1.126181 -2.915 TTEHJP 1 -1.431349 0.761406 -1.880 RPWTEH 1 0.992275 0.318789 3.113
1.
Prob > 0.0 7 0.0729
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan 1 1
0.013769 0.004170 0.084620 0.042983 Durbin-Watson (For Number of Obs. 1st Order Autocorre ation
I
Model: RPXTIHSP
3.302 1.969 1.027 28 0.408
0.0031 0.0612
Root HSE 3.65186 R-Square 0.9822 De Mean 21.19896 Adj R-SQ 0.9793 C. 17.22661 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > Variable DF TTIMSP 1 -3.327058 0.933386 -3.565 0.0 1 RPWTIM 1 0.511137 0.141425 3.614 0.0014 REIN 1 -0.001162 0 PXTIMSPl 1 0.766295 0.069200 11 :074 0: 0001 Durbln-Watson 1.627 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.175 Model: RPXTIHBL 7.80016 R-Square 0.7274 Root HSE De Mean 21.33192 Ad] R-SQ 0.6933 .!c 36.56569 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > INTERCEP 1 40.231676 15,204692 2.646 0.0 4 TTIWBL 1 -3.838909 3.647779 -1.052 0.3031 RPWTIM 1 0.658052 0.436980 1.506 0.1451 REIN -0.Ot9996 1 0.007384 -2.708 0.0123 Durbin-Watson 0.296 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.792 Model: RPXPAKAS 2.13861 R-Square 0.8044 Root HSE De Mean 13.09893 Adj R-SQ 0.7704 c.!. 16.32662 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O 1 -0.819138 2.562218 -0.320 1 -0.445896 0.137650 -3.239 0.0036 1 0.264645 0.082631 3.203 0.0040 1 -0.000070037 0.001152 -0.061 0.9521 1 0.857318 0.110512 7.758 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 1.920 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation -0.011 Model : Root HSE 9.84830 R-Square 0.9663 De Mean 40.33043 Adj R-SQ 0.9607 C. 24.41902 - . .-..Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estllate Error Parameter=O Prob > T P m 1 -29.333338 6.216803 -4.718 0.0 0 W A K 1 2.910033 0.310846 9.362 0.0001 RRTP 1 0.022031 0.023893 0.922 0.3657 TREND 1 0.3$7385 0.360823 0.990 0.3318 Durbln-Watson 0.673 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.659 RPXPAKJR Root MSE 2.17514 R-Square 0.9573 De Hean 19.37790 Adj R-SQ 0.9499 C. 11.22483 Parameter Standard T for HO: DF Estimate Error ParameterzO Prob > 1 -1.155800 3.319195 -0.348 0.7 0 1 -0.916105 0.119805 -7.647 0.0001
!.
1
1
1~1
1
1
1
I
L
1
!.
!.
1 1 1
0.695735 0.080098 -0.000931 0.001510 0.512029 0.075420 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
Model :
1
8.686 -0.616 6.789 0.854 28 0.558
Root MSE 4.85603 R-Square 0. De Mean Adj R-SQ 10.49727 0. C. 46.25999 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -1.080802 0.433396 -2.494 0.725764 0.315828 2.298 -0.000552 0.001494 -0.370 0.659323 0.097146 6.787 Durbin-Watson 1.698 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.147 Root MSE 5.90680 R-Square 0. De Mean Adj R-SQ 9.78188 0. C. 60.38510 Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O -0.947855 6.281277 -0.151 -0.986022 0.549225 -1.795 0.834651 0.537819 1.552 -0.005515 0.339904 -0.016 0.585448 0.161947 3.615 Durbin-Watson 2.083 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation
0.0001 0.5436 0.0001
1.
1
Model : RPXTEKJP
1
1.
1
Model : RPXTEKSP
Prob > 0.0 9 0.0306 0.7148 0.0001
/Ti
Prob > 0.8 1 0.0858 0.1343 0.9872 0.0015
1
Root MSE 2.69700 R-Square 0.9655 De Mean 11.72717 Ad] R-SQ 0.9597 C. 22.99784 -- .. . Paralseter standard T for 80: Estinate Error Parareter=O Prob > -14.627493 2.198954 -6.652 0.0 0 1.983630 0.225012 8.816 0.0001 0.349357 0.442 0.6627 0.202394 0.0207 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
1
Model :
1
Root MSE 0.23397 R-Square 0.9767 De Mean 1.14968 Adj R-SQ 0.9729 C. 20.35117 Paraleter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > -10.996784 3.366911 -3.266 0.0 3 1.405096 0.351597 3.996 0.0005 -0.000072461 0.000285 0.8012 0.498406 0.096992 0.0001 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1.
Variable TKALAS
RPWKAL
REIN 1 PXKAW1
1
Model : RPXKALKS
1
Root NSE 0.15008 R-Square 0.9693 De Mean 0.69149 Adj 0.9641 C. 21.70337 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > TKALKS 1 -1.364165 0.360955 -3.779 0.0 0 .
1.
RWJKAL REIN PXKALKS1
1 0.877391 0.213300 4.113 0.0004 1 -0.000038003 0.000053987 -0.704 0.4882 0.470252 1 0.108833 4.321 0.0002 Durbin-Watson 1.814 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.073 Root MSE 0.23275 R-Square 0.8868 De Hean 0.94535 Adj R-SQ 0.8671 C. 24.62050 Parameter Standard T for HO: Variable Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > /T/ INTERCEP -0.528135 0.249628 -2.116 0.0 5 TKAWP -2.560255 0.410860 -6.231 0.0001 RPWKAL 1.840679 0.310915 0.0001 REIN-JP -0.002223 0.012770 0.8633 PXKAWPl 0.100712 0.0009
1
1
1.
st Order Autoc
Hodel: RPXKAGJP
Root MSE De Hean
0.14416 R-Square 0.9333 0.41314 Adj R-SQ 0.9188 34.89507 - ~ - . Parameter Standard T for HO: Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > -0.001762 0.001075 -1.639 0.1 4 0.000012076 0.000336 0.036 0.9716 -0.000271 0.000201 -1.344 0.1921 0.879992 0.250925 3.507 0.0019 0.020094 0.006596 3.047 0.0057 Durbin-Watson 2.151 (For Number of Obs. 28 1st Order Autocorre ation -0.077
c.1.
Variable DF 1 TKAGJP RPWKAGl 1 REIN-1 1 PXKAGJPl 1 TREND 1 Hodel: RPXKAGJR
-
1
Root MSE De Mean
c.1. Variable
TKAGJR
RPWKAG REIN 1 TREND Hodel: RPXKAGBL
0.25098 R-Square 0.8976 0.68610 Adj R-SQ 0.8805 36.58058 Parameter Standard T for 10: Estimate Error Parameter=O -0.001854 0.001355 -1.368 0.002694 0.000661 4.075 0.000246 0.000350 0.027147 0,011001 Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
1
Root MSE 0.34212 R-Square 0. De Hean 0.58496 Ad] R-SQ oq c*!. 58.48590 Parameter Standard T for 10: Variable DF Estiaate Error Parameter=O Prob > TKAGBL 1 -0.000125 0.001850 -0.067 0.9 6 1 RWULG 0.002525 0.000901 2.802 0.0099 REIN 1 1 -0.000186 0.000478 -0.390 0.7001 TRE@ 1 0.008470 0.015027 0.564 0.5782 0bs. 1.952 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.022 Model: RPXPUPPI 0.09215 R-Square 0.9321 Root NSE De Hean 0.33310 Adj R-SQ 0.9203 .!.c 27.66579 Parameter Standard TforHO: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Rob >
F%%kEf 1
/TI
Laapiran 2. Lanjutan INTERCEP TPUPPI RPWPUP REIN PI
PXPURI~ Durbin-Watson For Number of Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
1
Model: RPXPUPMA
1
0.360 28 0.727
....
Root MSE Variable DF TPIJPMA 1 RPWPUP 1 REIN 1
0.06549 R-Square 0.9785 0.27682 Adj R-SQ 0.9759 23.65920 Parameter Standard T for 10: Estimate Error Parameter.0 Rob > -3.363047 0.563229 -5.971 0.0 0 1.933062 0.066499 29.069 0.0001 -0.000065681 0 Durbin-Watson 1.313 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.245
pl
1
Model: RPXPUPCN
1
Root MSE De Mean
0.07589 R-Square 0.9744 0.31906 Adj R-SQ 0.9714 23.78454 Parameter Standard T for 10: Estimate Error Paraaeter=O Prob > -0.256011 1.255854 -0.204 0.8 0 1.931858 0.075594 25.556 0.0001 -0.000087970 0.000019418 -4.530 0.0001 Durbin-Watson 0.451 For N W e r of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.714
c.1. Variable DF TPOPCN 1 RPWPUP 1 REIN 1
I 1 Root MSE 0.27318 R-Square 0.9563 0.95575 Ad j R-SQ 8.Para~eter28.58248Standard T for 10:0.9490
Model: RPXSAWBL
Estimate Error Paraaeter=O Variable DF TSAWBL 1 -5.835435 0.966844 -6.036 0.0 > 0 RPWSAW 1 1.555201 0.184749 8.418 0.0001 REIN1 -0.000014639 0 PXSAWBLl 1 4:278 0: 0003 0.392671 0.091796 Durbln-Watson 0.940 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.499 Model: RPXSAWJR Root HSE 0.29067 R-Square 0, De Mean 1.00432 Ad] R-SQ 0, C. 28.94223 Parameter Standard T for 10: Variable DF Estimate Error Parameter=O Prob > TSAWJR 1 -3.005735 1.244019 -2.416 0.0 3 RPWSAW 1 1.290978 0.266785 4.839 0.0001 REIN JR 1 -0.000118 0.000099674 -1.188 0.2466 PXSAijJRl 1 0.398503 0.109034 3.655 0.0013 Durbin-Watson 0.970 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.504 Model: RPXSAWIT 0.30799 R-Square 0.9492 Root MSE De Mean 1.00435 Adj R-SQ 0.9408 C. 30.66531 Parameter Standard T for 10: Variable DF Estiaate Error Paraaeter=O R o b > TSAWIT 1 -3.301982 1.103659 -2.992 0.0 6 RPWSAW 1 1.210210 0.264916 4.568 0.0001
1
i
1.
AT{
1
8
1.
bll
1
Lanpiran 2. Lanjutan REIN IT PXSAiITl
1 1
-0.059121 0.084147 0.440159 0.121328 Durbin-Watson (For Nunber of Obs. 1st Order Autocorre ation
1
Model :
-0.703 3.628 1.036 28 0.459
0.4891 0.0013
Root HSE 0.03313 R-Square 0.9542 De Hean 0.24857 Adj R-SQ 0.9485 C. 13.32977 Parameter Standard T for 00: Error Estimate Prob > 0.281997 0.033807 0.0 0 -1.829367 0.383816 0.0001 1.002424 0.081414 0.oooi -0.Ow155 0.000017825 0.0001
1.
REIN
AT]
1
?%%%f Obs. st Order Autocorre ation
Model :
Root HSE 0.03130 R-Square 0.9480 De Mean 0.22654 Adj R-SQ 0.9415 13.81759 C. Parameter Standard T for 00: Estimate Error Parmeter=O 0.263237 0.039093 6.734 -1.421830 0.542049 -2.623 0.962201 0.133256 7.221 -0.OP142 0.000019522 -7.277 Durbin-Watson 1.059 For Nulber of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.417
1.
RPWMEN REIN
Model: RPXMENAU
1
1
Root HSE 0.03550 R-Square 0. De Hean 0.25755 Adj R-SQ 0. C. 13.78258 Parameter Standard T for Ho: DF Estimate Error Parameter=O 1 0.303023 0.034399 8.809 1 -1.698550 0.383003 -4.435 1 0.976951 0.079673 12.262 1 -0.000169 0.000018395 -9.189 Durbin-Watson 1.238 For Number of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.349
B.
L
Model :
pj
Prob > 0.0 0
1
Root HSE
?I. Variable INTERCEP TGASJP RPWGAS REIN-JP Model : RPXGASKS
0.02105 R-Square 0.9882 0.28320 Adj R-SQ 0.9867 ,lean 7.43200 Paraaeter Standard T for 00: Estinate Error Parameter=O Prob > 0.116101 0.014902 7.791 0.0 0 -11.257900 1.406048 -8.007 0.0001 1.737621 0.090243 19.255 0.0001 -0.006275 0.001360 -4.612 Durbln-Watson 1.480 For N W e r of Obs. 28 st Order Autocorre ation 0.231
/,TI
1
1
- - -
Root MSE 0.03509 R-Square 0.9395 De Mean 0.24231 Adj R-SQ 0.9290 C. 14.48123 T for 00: Parameter Standard Variable DF Estiaate Error Parameter=O Prob > INTERCEP 1 0.201997 0.045021 4.487 0.0 0 TGASKS 1 -2.415627 0.248553 -9.719 0.0001 WGAS 1 0.978474 0.096130 10.179 0.0001
1.
AT^
REIN PXGASKSl
1 1
-0.000108 0.185969
0.000021743 0.080128
Durbin-Watson (For Number of Obs. 1st Order Autocorre ation
1
-4.953 2.321 1.607 28 0.172
0.0001 0.0295
Lapiran 3. hqak blternatif Berbagai Skenario pada SiRllasi Kistoris Periode 1984-1996 Tabel 3.1, Danpak Devaluasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap US-Dollar sebesar 50% (Skenario 1) pada Simulasi Aistoris Periode 19841996
01. RNXT 02. Rm' 03. RBCl' 04. RX 05. RC 06. RTAX 07. RIS 08. RGC 09, RG 10. RGDR 11, RGR 12. RCURRA 13. RDDB 14. rnDB 15. RFEAB 16. RHS 17. REASE 18. RPNH 19.RTGDPIN 20. REIN 21. N I DEX 22. INF 23, I 24.REXKAR 25.RVTXKOP 26.RVTXTH 27.RVTXTM 28.RVTXPAK 29.RVTXTER 30.RVTXRAL 31,RVTXPUP 32.RVTXSAIJ 33.RVR&N 34.RVTXGAS 35.RVTMPIP 36.RVTHKlS
Tabel 3.2, Dampak Peningkatan Foreign Direct Investnent sebesar 25% (~kenario2) pada Simulasi ist tor is Periode 1984-1996
RNXT RWllT RBOT
RK RC RTAX RIS
RGC RG RGDR RGR RCURRA RDDB RTSDB RFEAB RElS RBASE RPHDN RTGDPIN REIN INDEX INP I RVTXRAR RVTXKOP RVTXTW RVTXTM RYTXPAK RVTXTEK R'iTxKAL RVTXPUP RVTXSAW RVTXWEH
RVTXGAS RVMPIP
RvTms
Tabel 3.4. Danpak Penguranqan Investasi Pemerintah sebesar 20% (Skenario 4) pada S h l a s i Eistoris Periode 1984-1996
RNXT 0.01 0.01 RNW -0.55 -0.92 RBOT 1.49 1.84 RK -11.45 -18.98 RC -0.36 -0.78 RTAX -0.38 -0.83 RIS -0.28 -0.62 RGC 0.02 0.01 RG -9.42 -10.70 RGDR -0.04 -0.13 RGR -0.04 -0.11 RCURRA -3.31 -5.43 RDDB -0.11 -0.25 RTSDB -1.58 -3.13 RFEAB -0.06 -0.16 RlIS -0.43 -0,93 RBASE -0.80 -1.13 RPmN -0.30 -0.74 RTGDPIN -1.96 -2.65 REIN -0.14 -0.30 INDEX -0.07 -0.15 INF -1.57 -0.97 I -0.33 -0.45 RVTXKAR -0.00 0.01 HVTXKOP -0.01 -0.00 RVTXTW -0.27 -0.68 RVTXTIH 0.03 0.09 RVTXPAK -0.03 -0.08 RVTXTW -0.11 -0.23 RVTXKAl -0.07 -0.15 R W U P -0.15 -0.15 RVTXSAW -0.06 -0.06 RVTXlIW 0.03 0.07 RVTXGAS -0.01 -0.03 RVTKPIP -0.40 -0.38 RVllMES -2.52 -8.66
0.03 -0.85 3.26 -20.47 -1.05 -1.11 -0.83 -0.03 -8.78 -0.24 -0.19 -5.47 -0.34 -4.16 -0.25 -1.27 -0.87 -1.17 -2.33 -0.35 -0.22 -2.03 -0.58 0.03 0,Ol -1.59 0.16 -0.10 -0.30 -0.18 -0.04 -0.06 0.19 -0.01 -0.75 -4.31
0.02 0.01 -0.62 -0.64 1.19 1.25 -20.34 -33.70 -1.29 -1.54 -1.37 -1.62 -1.02 -1.15 -0.09 -0.14 -8.56 -8.95 -0.37 -0.53 -0.30 -0.38 -5.30 -5.46 -0.43 -0.53 -4.90 -5.45 -0.32 -0,36 -1.60 -1.98 -0.89 -1.03 -1.60 -1.96 -2.37 -2.63 -0.33 -0.33 -0.26 -0.32 -0.72 -1.22 -0.68 -0.83 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.04 -1.23 -1,74 0.21 0.26 -0.12 -0.09 -0.26 -0.26 -0.20 -0.18 -0.07 -0.18 -0.05 -0.10 0.17 0.21 0.04 0.06 -0.30 -0.40 -3,92 -2.76
-0.00 -0.56 1.03 -28.26 -1.80 -1.87 -1.29 -0.22 -9.64 -0.70 -0.54 -5.84 -0.63 -5.87 -0.39 -2.43 -1.22 -2.26 -2.96 -0.32 -0.39 -1.05 -0.95 0,07 0.07 -0.70 0.26 -0.10 -0.26 -0.20 -0.07 -0.11 0.19 0.05 -0.55 -2.51
-0.01 -0.72 1.91 -19,22 -2.06 -2.13 -1.37 -0.31 -10.07 -0.88 -0.70 -6.15 -0.73 -6.15 -0.42 -2,94 -1.31 -2.62 -3.20 -0.35 -0.45 -0.83 -1.08 0.10 0.22 -0.66 0.36 -0.07 -0,27 -0.18 -0.10 -0.08 0.19 0.08 -0.54 -2.46
0.01 0.01 -0.92 -0.73 2.77 1.98 -26.30 -27.77 -2.32 -2.57 -2.38 -2.61 -1.47 -1.56 -0.40 -0.50 -10.66 -10.89 -1.08 -1.29 -0.85 -1.02 -6.42 -6.51 -0.83 -0,93 -6.36 -6.45 -0.46 -0.50 -3.55 -4.19 -1.53 -1.59 -2.96 -3.30 -3.47 -3.62 -0.43 -0.43 -0.52 -0.59 -0.73 -1.02 -1.25 -1.32 0.13 0.17 0.24 0.16 -0.86 -0.77 0.52 0.64 -0,06 -0.06 -0.28 -0.25 -0.20 -0.17 -0,lO -0.07 -0.05 -0.09 0.30 0.41 0.14 0.18 -0.60 -0.81 -2.51 -2.95
0.01 -0.58 1.42 -37.65 -2.76 -2.81 -1.66 -0.62 -10.47 -1.49 -1.23 -6.31 -1.02 -6.53 -0.53 -4.87 -1.56 -3.54 -3.59 -0.40 -0.66 -1.12 -1.69 0.22 0.14 -0.65 0.80 -0,06 -0.20 -0.23 0.06 -0.07 0.40 0.23 -0.82 -2.86
0.04 -0.62 1.98 -21.33 -2.93 -2.97 -1.59 -0.75 -10.31 -1.69 -1,45 -6.15 1.11 -6.62 -0.54 -5.67 -1.58 -3.81 -3.63 -0.39 -0.73 -1.20 -2.21 0.21 0.09 -0.97 1.03 -0.07 -0.12 -0.18 -0.01 -0.05 0.49 0.39 -0.97 -2.89
0.01 -0.47 1.47 -14.93 -3.04 -3.09 -1.43 -0.87 -9.63 -1.88 -1.62 -5.86 -1.18 -6.65 -0.55 -6.68 -1.58 -4.05 -3.50 -0.37 -0.79 -0.92 -2.47 0.14 0.06 -0.66 1.13 -0.07 -0.11 -0.20 -0.15 -0.09 0.46 0.32 -1.06 -2.31
0.00 -0.52 1.49 -26.20 -3.14 -3.21 -1.44 -1.00 -9.75 -2.06 -1.80 -5.74 -1.24 -6.63 -0.55 -7.83 -1.60 -4.23 -3.54 -0.35 -0.84 -0.77 -2.46 0.14 0.15 -0.39 1.48 -0.06 -0.11 -0.22 -0.12 -0.09 0.44 0.27 -0.71 -2.36
Tabel 3.5. Danpak Penguranqan Dana unNr Kredit sebesar 20% (Skenario 5 ) pada Simulasi Historis Periode 1984-1996
m RNm
RBOT Rzl RC RTAX
RIS RGC RG RGDR RGR
R m RDDB
RTSDB RFEM RHS
RBASE RPWN RTGDPIN REIN INDEX
INP I RVTXKAR RrnOP RVTXTEN RVTXTIH
R m A K
R m
RVTXKU RVTXPUP RVTXSAW
R V T m
RVTXGAS rnIP Rv'lMES
Tabel 3.6. Dampak Depresiasi Nilai Mar Yen Terhadap US-Dollar sebesar 20% (Skenario 6) pada Sinulasi Historis Periode 1984-1996
RNXT
m RBOT
RK RC RTEX RIS RGC RG RGDR RGR
RCURRA RDDB RTSDB
RFEAB RK RIME RPWN RTGDPH REIN N I DEX INF I R m RVTXKOP
R m RVTXTM RVTXPAK RVTXTEK RmxKAL RVTXPUP RVTXSAW RVTXllM RVTXGAS RrnIP RVTlIEIES
Tabel 3.7. Dampak Peningkatan Perolehart Pajak sebesaf 20% (Skenario 7) pada Simulasi Historis Periode 1984-1996
RNXT RNllT RBOT RK RC RTAX RIS
RGC RG RGDR RGR
R m RDDB RTSDB RFEAB
Rns
RBASE RPWH RTGDPIN
REIN INDEX IHF I R r n RVTXKOP RrnW RVTXTM R W A K RVTXTEK RVTXKM, RVT;YP(TP
RVTXSAW RVTXHEN RVTXGAS RVRBIP R'v'nnES
Tabel 3.8. Dampak Koabinasi Skenario S2, S3, dan S7, (Skenario 8) pada Simulasi Historis Periode 1984-1996
01. RNXT 02. m 03. RBOT 04. RK 05. RC 06. RTAX 07. RIS 08. RGC 09. RG 10. RGDR 11. RGR 12. RCURRA 13. RDDB 14. RTSDB 15. RFEAB 16. RHS 17. RBESE 18. RPHDN 19. RTGDPIN 20. REIN 21. INDEX 22. INF 23. I 24. RVTXRAR 25. RVl'XKOP 26. RVTXTEn 27. RVTXTB 28. R W A K 29. RVTXTEK 30. RVTXKAL 31, RVTXPUP 32. RVTXSAW 33. R m 34. RVTXGAS 35. RVRIPIP 36. RVTlMES
Tabel 3.9. Dampak Konbinasi Skenario S1, S2, dan S3, (Skenario 9) pada Simulasi Historis Periode 1984-1996
01. 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 09. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28, 29. 30. 31. 32.
m RNHT RBOT RX RC RTAX RIS RGC RG RGDR RGR RCURRA RDDB RTSDB RPEAB RHS RBASE RPHDN RTGDPIN REIN INDEX INF I RVTXKAR RVTXKOP RVTXTW RlTXTM RWAK RVl'XTEK RVTXWl RVl'X,PU'P
RVTXSAW m 34. RVTXGAS 35. RVRIPIP 36. RVlMES
33. R
miran 4. Darpak Albmatif Berbagai Skenario pada Siralasi Peraralan Periode 1997-2010 Tabel 4.1. Dampak Penghapusan Proteksi (Skenario 10) pada Simulasi Peramalan Periode 1997-2010
01. 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 09. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.
RHXT RNHT
RBOT RK RC RTAX RIS RGC RG RGDR, RGR RCURRA RDDB RTSDB
RFEAB RIG RBASE RPHDN RTGDPIN
REIN INDEX INF
I RVTXXAR RVTXKOP RVTXUDA RVTXTW: RVTXPAK RVTXTER RVTXKAL RVTXRAG RVTXPUP RVTXSAW RVTXGAS RVTHPIP RV'MES
Tabel 4.2. Danpak Penman Proteksi Haksh sebesar 5% sesuai AFTA (Skenario 11) pada Siaulasi Perasalan Periode 1997-2010
01. 02, 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. 08. 09, 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31, 32. 33. 34. 35. 36.
RNXT RNm
RBOT
H RC RTAX RIS RGC RG RGDR RGR RCURRA RDDB RTSDB
RFEAB W RBASE P W D H RTGDPIN REIN INDEX
INP I RVTXKAR RVTXKOP RVTXUDA RVTXTDl RVTXPAK RVTXTW RVTXKAl RVTXKAG RVTXPUP RVTXSAW RVTXGAS RVRIPIP RVTMES
~.
m
*
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4
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4
~
n
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~
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-
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I
N
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-
~ w
-
4
~ ~
A I
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m
A A
N
n
~
-
m I
.
*
o
~ m
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. n-~m. .m+. m4
~ m
~ ~
-
~ m
~
~ ~ w ~ ~ m o ~ m - ~~ ~~ w -a n < q -~ y ~ ~ y~ y ?~ ? y~ ? y y ?e y y y y y m y y ~ : po ~ q y w y ~ ~' y y
~ N
A ~ I P
A
d
d
d
o
o
o I
o N
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o
o
~ C -
n o m w n -
~ m m
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I
o
w
~
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~ m
~
m
~
m
~ w
r
w
~
n
m
m
-
Tabel 4.7. Danpak Kombinasi Skenario S14 dan Peningkatan Perolehan Pajak sebesar 20% (Skenario 16) pada S h l a s i Peranalan Periode 1997-2010
01. NN' 02. m 03. RBCl' 04. RK 05, RC 06. RTAX 07. RIS 08. RGC 09. RG 10. RGDR 11, RGR 12. R m 13. RDDB 14. RTSDB 15. RFEAB 16. RHS 17. RBASE 18.
RPHDN
19. RTGDPIN 20. REIN 21.
INDEX
22. INF 23. I 24. RVTXRAR 25. RYTXROP 26. RRXUDA . 27. RVTXTEH
28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33, 34. 35. 36.
RVTXPAK RVTXTW RVTIIRIII, RVTXKAG RWPUP RrnM RVTXGAS RWIP RVllMES
