Jasa Marga JSMR:IJ | JSMR.JK
Contractor PreFinance helps growth
BUY (Maintain) Target Price
Rp 5,000
Last Price
Rp 4,220
Potential Upside
18.5%
JCI Index
5,312
Share issued (mn)
7,258
Market Cap. (Rp bn)
30,628
52-Weeks High/Low
3,900/6,325
Avg Daily Vol (mn)
2.71
Free Float
30.0%
Nominal Value
Rp 500
Book value/share ‘17
Rp 2
Relative to JCI Chart 10%
0% Jan-15 -10%
Sep-15
May-16
Jan-17
Laba bersih 2017 kami estimasi tumbuh 13% y-y ditopang oleh kenaikan trafik dan tarif. Di sisi lain, skema contractor prefinance (CPF) menjadi kunci vital JSMR untuk menjaga arus kas JSMR tetap sehat, ditengah target jalan tol sepanjang 1.226km di 2019. Estimasi laba bersih 2017 tumbuh 13% …, Kami estimasikan laba bersih perseroan tahun 2017 tumbuh 13% y-y menjadi Rp 1,9 triliun, merepresentasikan EPS sebesar Rp 272. Selain itu, rencana refinancing dengan bunga yang lebih rendah kami proyeksikan akan membantu kestabilan proyeksi laba bersih JSMR. … seiring kenaikan trafik (5%) dan tarif (7%). Trafik JSMR kami perkirakan meningkat 5% y-y menjadi 1,5 miliar kendaraan seiring dengan penambahan ruas tol yang beroperasi di Semarang – Solo ruas Bawen – Salatiga, Surabaya – Mojokerto ruas Sepanjang – Krian, Gempol – Pasuruan, Medan – Kualanamu – Tebing Tinggi dan Solo – Ngawi - Kertosono. Sementara tarif diproyeksikan naik 7% y-y seiring dengan penyesuaian tarif tol di sejumlah ruas utama seperti, Jagorawi, Jakarta-Tangerang dan Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR).
-20%
Anggaran konstruksi tol sebesar Rp 22 triliun di 2017. Perseroan mengalokasikan belanja modal (capex) sebesar Rp 27 triliun untuk 2017, naik Rp 17 triliun dan akan digunakan untuk pembangunan 235 km jalan tol baru (81%), biaya operasional (15%) dan sisanya pengembangan anak usaha properti dan jasa layanan pemeliharaan. Target jalan tol perseroan di 2017 bertambah menjadi 820 km.
-30% -40% -50%
JSMR Equity
JCI Index
Company Background PT Jasa Marga (JSMR) adalah operator jalan tol di Indonesia. Saat ini perseroan mengoperasikan jalan tol sepanjang 593 km dengan pangsa pasar sebesar 61%. Porsi terbesar portfolio jalan tol di 2 wilayah dengan populasi besar yaitu, pulau Jawa dan Sumatera.
Shareholder Structure Government of Indonesia
70.0%
Public
30.0%
Target jalan tol 1.226km di 2019 dengan skema CPF. JSMR membutuhkan investasi total sebesar Rp 82 triliun untuk membangun 1.226 km hingga 2019, dimana perseroan mengedepankan skema CPF yang memungkinkan pembangunan jalan tol tanpa mengganggu arus kas. Mempertahankan BUY dengan TP Rp 5.000. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dan TP Rp 5.000, merefleksikan P/E 2017 sebesar 18x. Resiko dari rekomendasi kami adalah lebih tingginya beban bunga, tertundanya proyek dan gagalnya skema contractor prefinancing. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp4,220 per share)
Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148
[email protected]
www.samuel.co.id
Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) Toll Revenue EBIT EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) BVPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV Ratio (x) P/E Ratio (x) Net Gearing (x)
15A 7,121 3,478 4,155 1,466 202 1,435 68 11.2 2.9 20.9 1.3
16E 8,086 3,933 4,773 1,740 240 1,604 72 10.2 2.6 17.6 1.4
17E 9,055 4,394 5,316 1,971 272 1,794 81 10.6 2.4 15.5 1.8
18E 10,703 5,158 6,172 1,965 271 1,984 81 10.2 2.1 15.6 2.1
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Jasa Marga JSMR:IJ | JSMR.JK
Figure 1. Profitability ratio, 2015A – 2018E, (%)
70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 -
1,200
59.0
58.3
Figure 2. Toll road length vs traffic volume, 2015 – 18E
58.7
57.7
1,100 1,000
21.5 14.9
20.6 14.1
21.8 15.1
800
18.4 13.6
700 600
EBITDA margin
17E
1,375
1,400 1,350
6211,350
562
1,300
Net margin
ROE
200.0
3.8 181.5
210.2
4.0
2.5
0.0
2.0 16E Net gearing (%)
Source: Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
Traffic Volume (mn)
17E Interest coverage (x)
Jakarta Cikampek 14.04 Cikampek Padalarang 11.50
3.0
50.0 15A
18E
Figure 4. Toll road revenue contribution, 9M16, (%)
3.5 3.0
3.0
100.0
17E
Source: Company, SSI Research
140.4
133.4
16E
Toll road length (km)
Figure 3. Net gearing & interest coverage, 2016 – 18E
3.9
1,200 15A
Source: Company, SSI Research
250.0
1,250
400
18E
1,550
1,450
8181,445
500
16E
1,600
1,500
900
15A
150.0
1,133 1,562
JORR Seksi non S 10.32
Others 63.04
18E
Cemareng 10.30 Jagorawi 8.04 Source: Company, SSI Research
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Jasa Marga JSMR:IJ | JSMR.JK Figure 5. New projects as of December 2016
Source: Company, SSI Research
www.samuel.co.id
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Jasa Marga JSMR:IJ | JSMR.JK
KEY FINANCIALS Profit and Loss Rp bn Toll operating rev Toll operating exp
Cash Flow 15A
16E
7,121
8,086
17E
18E
9,055 10,703
(3,518) (4,111) (4,879) (5,913)
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) Net income Depreciation & amort.
Gross profit
4,128
4,634
5,007
5,849
Others
G&A & Other Exp.
(650)
(701)
(613)
(690)
Working capital
Operating profit
3,478
3,933
4,394
5,158
Operating CF
Operating margin (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Other income (exp.)
15A
16E
17E
18E
1,466
1,740
1,971
1,965
730
822
1,062
1,380
0
0
0
0
427
896
1,685
230
2,624
3,458
4,718
3,575
48.8
48.6
48.5
48.2
Net - CapEx
(3,653) (4,900) (15,475) (20,577)
4,155
4,773
5,316
6,172
Investing CF
(5,412) (5,032) (15,409) (20,610)
58.3
59.0
58.7
57.7
(1,405) (1,237) (1,399) (2,066) 3,087
Other financing
611
(878)
6,008
3,405
10,413
10,688
16,421
Income tax - net
(749)
(969) (1,076) (1,019)
Net - Cash flow
Net profit
1,466
1,740
1,971
1,965
Cash at beginning
3,290
3,323
3,033
3,030
20.6
21.5
21.8
18.4
Cash at ending
3,323
3,033
3,030
2,416
16E
17E
18E
3,323
3,033
3,030
0
0
Other Receivables
164
Others
Receivables
Total current assets Net fixed assets Other assets Total assets Payables
16E
17E
18E
2,416
ROE (%)
14.1
14.9
15.1
13.6
0
0
ROA (%)
4.0
4.3
3.6
2.7
127
149
182
Revenue growth (%)
7.1
13.6
12.0
18.2
234
231
267
311
EBITDA growth (%)
7.4
14.9
11.4
16.1
3,722
3,392
3,447
2,909
EPS growth (%)
3.1
18.6
13.3
-0.3
Interest coverage (x)
3.0
3.9
3.8
3.0
165.3
166.4
204.8
226.9
29,736 33,814 48,227 67,424 3,260
3,392
3,326
3,359
36,725 40,606 55,010 73,703 222
268
ST. debt and CMLTD
5,244
5,645
5,256
5,965
Other current liabilities
2,362
3,162
4,879
5,142
11,974 13,737 21,409 26,708 4,638
4,274
8,274 19,274
Debt to equity (%) Net gearing (%)
133.4
140.4
181.5
210.2
Major Assumptions 15A
16E
17E
18E
562
621
818
1,133
Traffic Volume (mn)
1,375
1,350
1,445
1,562
5,179
5,720
6,104
6,852
6.3
6.6
6.0
5.2
Toll road length (km)
Total liabilities
24,356 27,012 40,040 57,356
Average Tariff (Rp)
Total equity
12,369 13,595 14,970 16,348
Cash Cost/km (Rp bn)
www.samuel.co.id
(614)
15A
194
Other LT. liabilities
(3)
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
137
LT. debt
(289)
Key Ratios 15A
Cash
32
1,285
7,284
2,691
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
2,821
2,163
2,068
Balance Sheet
Financing CF
2,210
Pre-tax profit
Net profit margin (%)
2,989
Net - Borrowings
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Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA
Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta
Economist
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe
Technical Analyst
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA
Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara
Cement, Telecommunication, Utility
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja
Poultry, Retail, Small Caps
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik
Mining, Plantation
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8339
Adde Chandra Kurniawan
Research Associate
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8338
Evelyn Satyono
Head of PWM / Institutional Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe
Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8325
Kelvin Long
Head of Equities
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8150
Yulianah
Institutional Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati
Retail Equity Sales
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8173
Nugroho Nuswantoro
Head of Marketing Online Trading
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras
Marketing
[email protected]
+6221 2854 8389
Private Wealth Management
Equity Sales Team
Online Trading Sales Team
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
www.samuel.co.id
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