CIMB Preferred MARKET INSIGHTS. INDONESIA PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk

CIMB Preferred

MARKET INSIGHTS

INDONESIA PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk

January 2012

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Market Insights

CONTENS

4 Economic Outlook

We are expecting real GDP growth to slow to 2.8%-6.2% for the ASEAN-4 economies in 2012.

8 Equities Look to 2H2012 for more upside. History indicates markets weaknesses could endure for another quarter.

EDITORIAL

Effendy Shahul Hamid Head, Group Marketing and Communications CIMB Group

EDITORIAL COMMITTEE

Ken Kamal, Elina Effendi, Joy Deborah Ling Yea Tze, Nurlia Binti Ismail, M. Roland Perdana, Novie Hesti

PUBLISHED BY Group Marketing and Communications CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (18417-M) Level 6 Menara SBB, 83 Jalan Medan Setia 1, Plaza Damansara, Bukit Damansara, 50490 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

PT Bank CIMB Niaga, Tbk January 2012

11 Fixed Income Robust economic fundamentals meant that foreign funds would want to add to their portfolios of local currency government bonds, especially for yield pickup opportunities

15 Commodities Lack of significant buying interest on the commodity saw Gold prices hovering below US$1,700/ oz, causing the unwinding of Gold – Dollar hedges to remain intact.

16 Foreign Exchange Although fundamentals of the economy have not showed deterioration, we note possible the external factors to act as headwinds on any possibility of MYR strength.

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Market Insights

DAFTAR ISI

4 Economic Outlook

Kami mengharapkan GDP riil akan melambat 2.8%-6.2% untuk perekonomian 4 perekonomian ASEAN

8 Ekuitas

Kenaikan lebih terlihat di 2H2012. Secara historis menunjukkan pelemahan pasar bisa bertahan hingga kuartal selanjutnya.

EDITORIAL Effendy Shahul Hamid Head, Group Marketing and Communications CIMB Group

Fundamental ekonomi yang kuat menjadikan dana asing akan menambah portofolionya di obligasi pemerintah dengan mata uang lokal, terutama mengejar kesempatan perolehan imbal hasil.

15 Commodities

Kekurangan minat beli secara signifikan pada komoditas membuat harga emas mengambang dibawah US$1,700/ oz menyebabkan pelepasan hedging Emas – dollar tetap utuh..

16 Foreign Exchange

EDITORIAL COMMITTEE Ken Kamal, Elina Effendi, Joy Deborah Ling Yea Tze, Nurlia Binti Ismail

PUBLISHED BY Group Marketing and Communications CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (18417-M) Level 6 Menara SBB, 83 Jalan Medan Setia 1, Plaza Damansara, Bukit Damansara, 50490 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

11 Pendapatan Tetap

Meskipun fundamental dari perekonomian belum menunjukkan pelemahan, kami mencatat kemungkinan faktor ekternal untuk mengarahkan kepada penguatan MYR.


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Economic Outlook

We are expecting real GDP growth to slow to 2.8%-6.2%

for the ASEAN-4 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and

Thailand) economies in 2012. China is also expected to

grow 8% compared to 2011’s expected 9.3% growth. 1Q 2012 should also see renewed concerns on European

peripheral economies debt repayment abilities and choppy market conditions. Nevertheless, equity investors

should be watching for signs of a bottoming out in global

economic growth, which we expect to take place by 2H2012. In the US, the sharp deleveraging that has occurred will provide the driver for a gradual and sustained recovery in our view.

US deleveraging pave the way for recovery We have seen deleveraging across the household, corporate and financial sectors in the US. This should pave the path for a pick up in spending and growth recovery in the mid-term.

Kami mengharapkan pertumbuhan GDP ekomoni ASEAN -4 ( Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia dan Thailand) untuk melambat ke 2.8%-6.2% di 2012. China diharapkan juga tumbuh sebesar 8% dibandingkan dengan ekpektasi pertumbuhan sebesar 9.3% tahun 2011. 1Q/2012 juga akan fokus kepada kondisi perekonomian mengenai kemampuan pembayaran hutang dan Pasar yang bergejolak. Meskipun demikian, investor – investor ekuitas sebaiknya memperhatikan tanda penurunan di pertumbuhan perekonomian global, dimana kami mengharapkan akan terjadi di 2H2012. Di US, Penurunan tajam yang telah nampak akan menyebabkan motor untuk perbaikan perekonomian secara bertahap.

Pertumbuhan US memuluskan pemulihan perekonomian

jalan

Kami telah melihat pertumbuhan di sektor rumah tangga, perusahaan dan sektor keuangan di US. Ini seharusnya memuluskan jalan untuk peningkatan di permulihan belanja dan pertumbuhan dalam jangka menengah.

But global growth will first worsen before getting better

Leading indicators remain on a downtrend. Exports, production and monetary indicators are expected to continue their downtrend for the next 1-2 quarters. Risk indicators remain at high levels and could spike further in the event of further contagion and debt repayment concerns pertaining to the Eurozone.

Tetapi pertumbuhan global pada awalnya akan memburuk kemudian membaik We are expecting growth to Indikator – indicator utama real akan GDP tetap menurun. Ekport, produksi dantoindicator moneter akan terus slow 2.8%-6.2% for diharapkan the ASEAN-4 Melemah pada kuartal 1-2. Indikator resiko akan tetap di economies in 2012. level tinggi dan akan memacu penyebaran dan perhatian mengenai pembayaran hutang akan tetap berkaitan kepada Eurozone.


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Economic Outlook

Key Macro Themes

Key Macro Themes Macro turning point by 2H2012

Macro Balik arah di 2H2012 Setelah, produksi global, ekpor dan indicator pertumbuhan telah turun secara signifikan, walaupun masih diatas sebelum 2009. Kami mengharapkan momentum pertumbuhan global untuk memburuk sebelum menjadi lebih baik didasarkan pada kelanjutan penurunan di indikator kunci. Resiko indikator seperti rentangan Euro Libor-Overnight Indexed swap( Euribor-OIS) dan European banks credit default swaps (CDS) lebih jauh tetap tinggi. Tim makro kami memprediksi resesi ringan untuk Eurozone, pertumbuhan moderat di US dan pertumbuhan dibawah standar untuk pasar Asia. Meskupundemikian, kami harap pembalikan pertumbuhan secara bertahap di 2H2012. Sesudah, perubahan bulan ke bulan di indikator utama seperti indikator Utama untuk Organisation of Economic and Cooperation Development (OECD) berubah menjadi kurang negative.

Already, global production, exports and growth indicators fallen significantly, albeit still above previous 2009 have troughs. We expect global growth momentum to worsen before it gets better based on the continued downtrend in key leading indicators. Risk indicators such as the Euro Libor-Overnight Indexed swap( Euribor-OIS) spread and European banks credit default swaps (CDS) further remain elevated. Our macro team is forecasting a mild recession for the Eurozone, moderate growth in US and subpar growth for the Asian markets. Nevertheless, we expect a gradual macro turnaround going into 2H2012. Already, the month on month change in leading indicators such as the Organisation of Economic and Cooperation Development (OECD) composite leading indicator is turning less negative.

ASEAN still dependent on global economy-its own share in global GDP IS 2.5% currently.

ASEAN masih tergantung pada pertumbuhan globalbagian dalam ASEAN saat ini adalah 2.5 %

Sources:CIMB, IMF Sources:CIMB, IMF

We Weare areexpecting expectingreal realGDP GDPgrowth growthtoto slow slowtoto2.8%-6.2% 2.8%-6.2%for forthe theASEAN-4 ASEAN-4 economies in 2012. economies in 2012.

We are expecting real GDP growth to slow to 2.8%-6.2% for the ASEAN-4 economies in 2012.


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Economic Outlook

US economy’s gradual recovery

Contagion concerns from Europe lies in the background and 1Q2012 will see more European peripheral economies repayments due and debate over the amount of bailout and debt sustainability. Recession is broadly expected for the Eurozone, although opinions on extent of fallout differ. As an offset, we expect the US economy to embark on a more sustained recovery trend in the midterm following the significant deleveraging that has occurred over the past 3 years.

Inflation has room to ease especially for China and Thailand

Households, corporate and financial institutions have all seen deleveraging and we look to credit and consumer

demand recovery in the mid-term. Recent data flows have

also been encouraging with strengthening in broad based economic indicators including new orders, employment and jobless claims figures. While this is a key market catalyst, the recovery will be gradual given still high unemployment rates and large stock of housing supply

But monetary easing in Asia unlikely to be a big story

Sources:CIMB,CEIC

The slowing growth climate and continued fears of Euro

debt contagion is likely to cap inflation expectations and provide more room for monetary easing on a global basis. judging from Asian relatively healthy employment rates, solid consumer sentiments and still high commodity prices, we think a sharp dip in inflation is unlikely despite the growth slowdown for the most part, especially if global economy starts to turn around closer to 2H2012.

However,

Consequently, we do not expect easing to be a big story in Asia this year barring a few economies, namely China and Thailand within our coverage where excess capacity is showing up and inflation trending off. For a large part, rates remain subdued since the last easing seen during the 2007 financial crisis, leaving less room for maneuver on the policy rates front. Source: Chang Chiou Yi, Song Seng Wun & Ching Quan Jian

Regional Strategist CIMB Research Pte Ltd


Equities

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Economic Outlook

Perekonomian US pulih secara bertahap Perhatian penyebaran dari Eropa sebagai penyebabkan dan 1Q2012 akan tampak lebih kepada permasalahan pembayaran hutang jatuh tempo dan perdebatan jumlah bantuan dan hutang. Resesi secara luas diharapkan untuk eurozone, meskipun pendapat kejatuhannya berbeda – beda. Sebagai kebalikannya, kami mengharapkan perekonomian US untuk mulai pada trend stabil dalam jangka menengah mengikuti penurunan signifikan yang telah muncul sejak 3 tahun terakhir.

Inflasi memiliki ruang untuk melemah terutama China dan Thailand

Rumah tangga, perusahaan dan institusi keuangan telah melihat penurunan dan kami menantikan pemulihan permintaan kredit dan consumer dalam jangka menengah. Aliran data terbatu juga telah mendorong dengan penguatan secara luas berdasarkan indikator perekonomian termasuk angka pemesanan barang, pengangguran dan klaim pengangguran. Ketika ini merupakan katalis market, pertumbuhan akan akan bergerak bertahap meskipun angka pengangguran tingga dan banyaknya supply perumahan.

Sources:CIMB,CEIC

Tetapi pelonggaran moneter di Asia tidak sepertinga akan menjadi berita besar. Iklim perlambatan perekonomian dan berlanjutnya ketakutan penyebaran hutang eropa sepertinya akan menutup ekpektasi inflasi dan menyediakan ruang lebih untuk pelonggaran moneter berdasarkan keadaan ekonomi global. Bagaimanapun, Menilai dari angka penggaguran yang terkontrol, sentiment konsumen yang utuh dan harga komoditas yang tinggi, menurut kami penurunan inflasi tidak akan terjadi meskipun pertumbuhan melambat, terutama jika ekonomi global mulai untuk berbalik arah di 2H2012.

Karenanya, kami tidak mengharapkan pelonggaran akan menjadi cerita di Asia tahun ini , terkecuali beberapa ekonomi, yaitu China dan Thailand dengan pandangan kami dimana kelebihan kapasiyas akan muncul dan inflasi akan melemah. Untuk bagian yang lebih luas, suku bunga akan melemah sejak akhir pelonggaran selama financial krisis 2007, meninggalkan ruang sempit untuk menufer dari kebijakan tinggat suku bunga.

Source: Chang Chiou Yi, Song Seng Wun & Ching Quan Jian


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Equities

Asian markets ended the year with moderate gains in December. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Far East Ex Japan Index (MXFEJ) rose 1.2%, following the 7.5% market decline in November. Barring a 2% decline in the FTSE Singapore's Straits Times Index (FSSTI), ASEAN markets were up in December. For the full year however, most markets showed flat to negative changes as global growth momentum continued to slow. Across the ASEAN-4 markets for 2011, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) outperformed, followed by the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) declined marginally while the FSSTI fell more than 15%.

Pasar Asia mengakhiri tahun dengan keuntungan yang moderat di Desember. Indeks Morgan Stanley Capital International Far East Ex Japan (MXFEJ) tumbuh 1.2%, mengikuti penurunan pasar 7.5% di November. Selain indeks FTSE Singapore’s Straits Times (FSSTI) turun 2%, pasar ASEAN naik di Desember. Namun, sebagian besar pasar selama satu tahun penuh menunjukkan perubahan yang datar menuju negatif seiring momentum pertumbuhan global terus melambat. Di antara 4 pasar ASEAN di 2011, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) unggul, diikuti oleh Bursa Efek Thailand (SET). Indeks Gabungan Kuala Lumpur (KLCI) turun sedikit sedangkan FSSTI turun lebih dari 15%.

For 2012, we expect growth momentum to worsen before staging a moderate recovery. 1Q2012 should still be choppy, plagued by renewed concerns on European debt repayments and worsening growth momentum. On a big picture basis, the Eurozone growth appears to pose more downside. On the positive end, US economy recovery is underway albeit in a gradual fashion. Recent data points lower unemployment rates and improvements in to demand. In the US, deleveraging is well underway, providing a buffer against growth fallout and precedes a gradual pick-up in demand in our view.

Untuk 2012, kami prediksi momentum pertumbuhan akan semakin memburuk sebelum memasuki tahap pemulihan moderat. 1Q2012 seharuskan akan tetap bergejolak, terimbas oleh kekhawatiran baru mengenai pembayaran kembali utang Eropa dan semakin buruknya momentum pertumbuhan. Dari gambaran besar, pertumbuhan zona Euro nampaknya akan semakin melemah. Positifnya, kunci pemulihan ekonomi AS akan terus berlanjut meskipun secara bertahap. Data terakhir menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran lebih rendah dan peningkatan dalam permintaan. Menurut pandangan kami, proses pemulihan AS berjalan dengan baik, menyediakan penyangga untuk melawan penurunan pertumbuhan dan permintaan meningkat bertahap.

Drawing a lesson from history, we note that the (MXFEJ) has fallen on average for 17 months before markets rebounded based on the past 4 downturns since the mid 1990s. While we do not expect a recessionary outcome for the Asian economies, global concerns continue to swirl and should continue to drag current market weakness out for another 3-5 months following a full year of weakness.

Menggambar pelajaran dari sejarah, kami mencatat MXFEJ turun rata-rata selama 17 bulan sebelum pasar naik kembali berdasarkan 4 pelemahan terakhir sejak 1990-an. Sementara itu, kami tidak berharap resesi muncul pada perekonomian Asia, kekhawatiran global terus menyeret pelemahan pasar selama 3-5 bulan ke depan di sepanjang tahun ini yang melemah.


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Equities Valuasi Pasar IHSG JCI

Valuasi Pasar SET

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

2013F

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

2013F

Core P/E (x)

18.4x

9.3x

16.1x

18.5x

14.7x

13.0x

10.9x

Core P/E (x)

18.7x

8.7x

13.2x

14.5x

13.1x

10.7x

9.6x

Core EPS growth (%)

49%

-3%

8%

28%

30%

14%

19%

Core EPS growth (%)

-15%

13%

7%

29%

10%

23%

12%

P/BV (x)

4.5x

2.0x

3.4x

3.9x

3.3x

2.9x

2.5x

P/BV (x)

2.4x

1.2x

1.8x

2.3x

2.0x

1.8x

1.7x

Dividend Yield (%)

2.5%

4.2%

2.2%

1.9%

2.3%

2.7%

3.2%

Dividend Yield (%)

2.7%

5.2%

3.7%

3.2%

3.4%

4.2%

4.2%

EV/EBITDA (x)

9.2x

4.7x

8.2x

9.8x

8.2x

7.4x

6.3x

EV/EBITDA (x)

8.3x

4.8x

6.7x

7.9x

7.4x

6.3x

5.6x

Net gearing (%)

13.7%

23.1%

20.7%

14.6%

9.4%

5.9%

-0.8%

Net gearing (%)

34.2%

34.5%

34.2%

31.6%

30.7%

24.1%

17.6%

ROE (%, recurring)

27.2%

23.5%

22.9%

23.5%

24.7%

24.0%

24.7%

ROE (%, recurring)

14.0%

14.5%

14.0%

16.5%

16.8%

17.9%

18.1%

-

-

-

-

1.13

1.11

1.14

-

-

-

-

1.00

1.05

1.05

CIMB/consensus (x)

SET

CIMB/consensus (x)

Sumber: CIMB, Laporan Perseroan


Valuasi Pasar KLCI KLCI

Valuasi Pasar FSSTI

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

2013F

FSSTI

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

2013F

Core P/E (x)

18.8x

12.5x

16.8x

16.1x

15.9x

13.6x

12.2x

Core P/E (x)

18.7x

10.2x

17.7x

16.7x

13.1x

12.7x

11.2x

Core EPS growth (%)

22%

-9%

8%

24%

2%

15%

11%

Core EPS growth (%)

17%

-6%

-6%

17%

6%

4%

14%

P/BV (x)

2.9x

1.6x

2.2x

2.4x

2.4x

2.2x

2.0x

P/BV (x)

2.3x

1.2x

1.8x

1.8x

1.4x

1.3x

1.2x

Dividend Yield (%)

3.1%

4.0%

3.2%

3.1%

3.6%

4.0%

4.3%

Dividend Yield (%)

3.2%

5.2%

3.0%

3.4%

3.8%

3.8%

4.2%

EV/EBITDA (x)

10.5x

7.0x

9.3x

8.5x

8.6x

7.7x

7.1x

EV/EBITDA (x)

14.9x

7.8x

13.4x

12.6x

10.8x

10.4x

9.5x

Net gearing (%)

15.7%

26.9%

22.4%

14.7%

14.5%

10.7%

6.8%

Net gearing (%)

17.0%

15.7%

10.8%

12.5%

16.6%

15.3%

14.6%

ROE (%, recurring)

17.9%

14.2%

13.9%

16.0%

15.7%

16.7%

17.1%

ROE (%, recurring)

13.8%

12.2%

10.9%

11.1%

10.7%

10.6%

11.3%

-

-

-

-

0.97

1.02

1.03

-

-

-

-

1.03

0.97

0.97

CIMB/consensus (x)


CIMB/consensus (x)



Source: Chang Chiou Yi Regional Strategist CIMB Research Pte Ltd

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Fixed Income

As the year-end holidays approached, trading thinned across the region. Nevertheless, Indonesia cheered its return to investment grade status after Fitch raised its sovereign ratings by one notch to BBB- from BB+ (Stable). Mixed news out of Europe and the U.S. kept risk appetite at bay as players counted down to the New Year.

Semakin dekatnya libur akhir tahun, perdagangan menipis di seluruh wilayah. Namun, Indonesia bersorak atas kembalinya status level investasi setelah Fitch menaikkan 1 tingkat peringkat menjadi BBB- dari BB+ (Stabil). Berita gabungan dari Eropa dan AS terus meningkatkan risiko dimana pemain menghitung mundur ke tahun baru.

U.S. Treasuries continued to pile on gains and these were slanted along longer-dated tenors. Frankly, sentiment remained driven by developments in Europe. There was cautious mood early December when Standard & Poor’s said it may downgrade the AAA ratings of 15 European nations including Germany's. The euro area’s six AAArated countries were among those placed on negative outlook, and their credit ratings would have been cut dependant on the outcome of the summit of EU leaders on 9 December 2011.

Tresuri AS terus berlanjut untung seiring semakin panjangnya tanggal tenor. Terus terang, sentimen masih dimotori oleh perkembangan di Eropa. Terjadi kehatihatian di awal Desember ketika Standard & Poor’s (S&P) menyatakan akan menurunkan peringkat AAA 15 negara Eropa termasuk Jerman. Enam di antara negara zona Euro dengan peringkat AAA- diposisikan dengan prospek negatif, dan peringkat kredit mereka akan diturunkan bergantung pada hasil dari pertemuan puncak para pemimpin Uni Eropa pada 09 Desember 2011.

S&P also placed the European Financial Stability Facility’s AAA rating on Negative Watch. In the same month, Fitch downgraded six of the world’s largest banks, citing the difficult financial and economic conditions that they face. These comprise Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Citigroup, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. Also, Moody's downgraded the ratings on France's three big banks namely BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic data were mixed to stronger. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to a six-month high reading of 53.4 for December, whilst the November Non Farm Payroll showed the U.S. added fewer jobs than what economists had earlier expected though the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell because there were less people looking for work. The payrolls figure rose by 120k versus consensus of 125k increase and a revised 100k increase in October. The unemployment rate fell to 8.6% from 9.0% in October. However, the housing market remains on edge, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index fell 1.2% in October (bringing a 12-month decline of 3.4%).

S&P juga menempatkan peringkat AAA untuk Fasilitas Stabilitas Keuangan Eropa dengan perhatian negatif. Di bulan yang sama, Fitch menurunkan enam bank terbesar di dunia, menunjukkan kesulitan keuangan dan kondisi ekonomi yang mereka hadapi. Terdiri dari Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Citigroup, Bank of America, dan Goldman Sachs. Moody’s juga menurunkan peringkat tiga bank besar Perancis yaitu BNP Paribas, Societe Generale dan Credit Agricole. Sementara itu, data ekonomi AS variatif cenderung menguat. Indeks The Institute untuk Supply Management’s factory melonjak ke level tertingginya di enam bulan terakhir pada Desember di level 53.4, sementara itu angka gaji non-pertanian di November menunjukkan AS hanya menambah sedikit pekerjaan dari yang diharapkan ekonom sebelumnya seiring tingkat pengangguran secara tidak terduga turun yang disebabkan oleh berkurangnya orang yang mencari pekerjaan. Angka gaji naik 120 ribu dibandingkan konsensus naik 125 ribu dan direvisi naik 100 ribu di Oktober. Tingkat pengangguran turun menjadi 8.6% dari 9.0% di Oktober..Namun, pasar perumahan tetap sepi, Indeks gabungan S&P/Chase-Shiller 20 kota turun 1.2% di Oktober (menjadikan penurunan 3.4% selama 12 bulan).


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Fixed Income

Indonesian government bond yields received another lift after Fitch lifted Indonesia’s sovereign ratings to investment grade in mid December. Indonesia was upgraded to BBB- from BB+ with a stable outlook by Fitch on 15 December 2011 after a 14-year hiatus from investment grade. Fitch cited that the upgrades reflect the country’s strong and resilient economic growth, low and declining public debt ratios, strengthened external liquidity a prudent overall macro policy framework. As a result and we noted a continued rally along the government bond market which fell another 50bps across all traded tenures.

Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah Indonesia terangkat setelah Fitch menaikkan peringkat Indonesia ke level investasi di pertengahan Desember. Indonesia dinaikkan menjadi BBB- dari BB+ dengan prospek stabil pada 15 Desember 2011 setelah 14 tahun absen dari level investasi. Fitch menyebutkan peningkatan level merefleksikan negara dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat dan tangguh, rasio hutang publik yang rendah dengan tren menurun, likuiditas eksternal yang kuat dan kerangka kebijakan makro yang berhati-hati secara menyeluruh. Dampaknya, kami mencatatkan reli berkelanjutan pada pasar obligasi pemerintah yang jatuh 50 bps lagi di semua tenor yang diperdagangkan.

Thai government bond yields edged slightly lower in December as risk appetite improved with the announcement that Eurozone members will participate in a new inter-governmental treaty on fiscal discipline. Leaders also agreed to add €200 to the European bailout fund. Nonetheless, players were mostly sidelined ahead of the year-end holidays.

Imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah Thai turun sedikit di Desember setelah selera risiko meningkat seiring pengumuman anggota zona Euro akan berpartisipasi dalam sebuah perjanjian disiplin fiscal antar-pemerintah. Para pimpinan juga akan menambah €200 untuk dana talangan. Meskipun demikian, sebagian besar pemain absen menjelang libur akhir tahun.

Ringgit bonds opened on a stronger footing at the start of December and managed to sustain gains despite thinning volume going into the year-end holidays.

Obligasi Ringgit dibuka dengan pijakan kuat di awal Desember dan berhasil mempertahankan keuntungan meskipun volume tipis menjelang liburan akhir tahun.

On local shores, Malaysia’s Industrial Production Index (IPI) was released showing a 2.8% yoy increase for October, against earlier anticipated increase of 1.6% whilst the previous month’s increase was revised upward to 3.0% yoy from 2.5% yoy previously. The November 2011 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an uptick of 3.3% (meeting consensus) versus October’s 3.4% yoy increase.

Dari domestik, indeks produksi industri Malaysia (IPI) yang telah dipublikasikan menunjukkan peningkatan 2.8% yoy di Oktober, dibandingkan antisipasi kenaikan 1.6% menjadikan kenaikan bulan sebelumnya direvisi naik menjadi 3.0% yoy dari sebelumnya 2.5% yoy. Pada November 2011 indeks harga konsumen (CPI) menunjukkan kenaikan 3.3% (sesuai konsensus) dibandingkan peningkatan 3.4% yoy di Oktober.

Meantime, Bank Negara conducted the final government securities (govvies) debt auction for the year, namely the RM3.0 billion sale of 3-year Islamic Government Investment Issues (GII) Sep’14. Demand as measured by the bid-to-cover ratio was decent at 2.19 times, compared with 1.78 times at the 5-year Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) auction late November and the 2.60 times cover at the 7-year GII auction before that. Average yield at the auction was 3.20%. The 2012 government securities auction calendar was also released. The eagerly anticipated announcement would set the stage for the Ringgit bond market in 2012 as we factor in a continued deluge in supply.

Sementara itu, Bank Negara melakukan lelang hutang surat berharga pemerintah final (govvies) tahun ini menjual RM 3.0 miliar Investasi Pemerintah Islam 3-tahun (GII) Sep’14. Permintaan yang diukur menggunakan rasio tawaran-terhadap-cover sebanyak 2.19 kali, bandingkan dengan 1.78 kali pada lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) Malaysia 5-tahun (MSG) di akhir November dan 2.60 kali pada lelang GII 7 tahun sebelumnya. Rata-rata imbal hasil pada lelang adalah 3.20%. Kalender lelang SUN tahun 2012 juga dirilis. Keinginan mengantisipasi pengumuman akan menjadikan pasar obligasi Ringgit di 2012 kebanjiran pasokan.


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Fixed Income

With expectations of a lower fiscal deficit of 4.7% of GDP (RM43 billion) plus maturities of MGS and GII amounting to RM45.6 billion, funding requirements should surmount to about RM89 billion in 2012. The 2012 auction calendar consists of a total of 28 offerings (2011: 29 offerings).

Dengan harapan defisit fiskal yang lebih rendah di 4.7% dari PDB (RM 43 miliar) ditambah jatuh tempo MGS dan GII sebesar RM 45.6 miliar, pendanaan yang dibutuhkan seharusnya senilai RM 89 miliar di 2012. Kalender lelang 2012 terdiri dari total 28 penawaran (2011: 29 penawaran).

In the upcoming year, there is an absence of private placements, compared to 8 private placements in 2011. We also noted that the central bank will offer more medium-to-longer-dated tenures with 6 offerings of the maturities, 5 offerings of the 2022 maturities and 2017 even 2 offerings of the 20-year benchmark.

Di tahun mendatang, tidak ada penempatan swasta, bandingkan dengan 2011 terjadi 8 penempatan swasta. Kami juga mencatat bahwa bank sentral akan menawarkan lebih banyak tenor medium hingga lebih panjang dengan 6 penawaran jatuh tempo 2017, 5 penawaran jatuh tempo 2022 dan bahkan 2 penawaran dengan tolok ukur 20 tahun.

Fixed Income


Source: Lum Choong Kuan Head of Fixed Income Research CIMB Group Treasury Fixed Income Research Team CIMB Investment Bank Bhd

Fixed Income

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Commodities

Crude Oil geo-political tension in the Straits of Hormuz is having The

Minyak Mentah Tekanan politik geografi di selat hormuz memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap harga minyak mentah dunia sebagaimana mendekati harga US$103.00/bbl. Peningkatan perekonomian US dan kemungkinan kekurangan pasokan awal ( karena pemotongan pasokan oleh Iran) mengarah kepada peningkatan harga minyak mentah.

an impact on crude oil prices as it stays close to US$103.00/bbl. The pickup in the US economy and possible shortages in the supply front (on the back of cut back in supply by Iran) point towards elevated prices for crude oil.

Base Metals London Metal Exchange (LME) 3-month copper prices is

Material Dasar

Harga Tembaga 3 bulan di London Metal Exchange (LME) saat ini diperdagangkan sekitar US$7,480 /ton dan menunjukkan kecenderungan menembus diatas batas US$8,000/ton. Krisis berkepanjangan di Eurozone tetap menjadi faktor, meskipun perbaikan perekonomian US masa datang akan mengayunkan harga tembaga ke atah lebih tinggi. Terutama jika perumahan di US meningkat/

Soft Commodities

Komoditas yang tidak tahan lama

currently trading around US$7,480 /ton and shows no inclination of breaching above the key barrier of US$8,000/ton. Ongoing crisis in Eurozone remains a factor, though improved US economy outlook could tilt copper prices to the upside, particularly if housing in the US strongly picks up.

Palm oil prices are expected to have difficulty staying afloat above the RM 3,200/ton level. Although supply shocks in the form of wet weather could keep prices supported, market is susceptible to weak external demand. Liquidity is currently drying up ahead of the Lunar New year holidays, thus limiting any potential upside break up for palm oil.

Harga minyak kelapa sawit diharapkan kesulitan bertahan mengambang diatas RM 3,200/ton level. Meskipun kejukan pasokan akibat cuaca kering akan menahan harga, market diperkirakan akan tentan terhadap permintaan ekternal. Saat ini likuiditas terbatas karena menghadapi tahun baru China, dengan demikian membatasi penurunan harga minyak kelapa sawit.

Gold Lack of significant buying interest on the commodity saw Gold prices hovering below US$1,700/ oz, causing the unwinding of Gold – Dollar hedges to remain intact. In our view, speculators and short term players are more inclined to profit-taking above the US$1,700/oz level, while real money names (i.e. investors who are looking at medium to longer term investment, e.g. portfolio managers) and physical buyer’s of the commodity eye levels below US$1.500 for fresh entry to the market. There are two factors which we view will dictate Gold prices in the near term. 1) The Dollar and further strengthening of the currency could see more downside risk on Gold and 2) geo-political tensions in the Straits of Hormuz that may induce safe haven buying of Gold.


Emas

Kekurangan minat beli secara signifikan pada komoditas membuat harga emas mengambang dibawah US$1,700/ oz, menyebabkan pelepasan hedging Emas – dollar tetap utuh. Dalam pandangan kami, speculator dan pemain jangka pendek tetap condong kearah profit taking diatas US$1,700/oz level, sedangkan uang riil (seperti investor yang berinvestasi jangka menengah sampai jangka panjang seperti portfolio manager) dan pembeli fisik komoditas mengawasi harganya dibawah US$1.500 untuk para pemain baru. Ada dua faktor yang kami lihat akan menyetir harga emas dalam jangka pendek. 1) Dollar dan penguatan mata uang akan mengarah pada penurunan resiko Emas dan 2) tekanan geopolitik di selat hormuz yang akan menyebabkan safe haven untuk membeli emas. Source: Suresh Kumar Ramanathan Regional Rates/FX Strategist CIMB Group Treasury Fixed Income Research Team CIMB Investment Bank Bhd Page 13

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Foreign Exchange

USD

USD

USD was stronger across the board with the Dollar Index on the currency rising to a high of US$81.48. We view two main factors that contributed to the currency strength, 1) the improved outlook for the US economy given better than expected numbers on the jobs front such as nonfarm payrolls data and 2) the Federal Reserve Bank’s Operation Twist. The latter reason is designed to provide corporate America on cheap funding for long term interest loans. The Dollar is likely to strengthen further in the medium term, and we expect the USD to peak by 2Q2012.

USD lebih kuat dibandingkan yang lain dengan Dollar Index pada mata uang naik ke level tinggi di US$81.48. Kami melihat dua faktor yang berkontribusi terhadap penguatan mata uang, 1) Perbaikan pandangan untuk perekonomian di US lebih baik di pekerjaan seperti data non – farm payrolls dan 2) Operation twist oleh The Fed. Alasan terakhir didesain untuk menyediakan perusahaan di amerika pendanaan murah untuk pinjaman jangka panjang. Dollar sepertinya akan menguat lagi dalam jangka menengah, dan kami mengharapkan USD akan memuncak di 2Q2012.

Euro

Euro

Euro is likely to see further pressure in the form of Greece. The country will be forced to introduce fresh austerity programs in order to receive its next tranche of funding from the IMF. We view the EUR/USD increasingly unstable and would likely to move towards the 1.2884 level. Breach below this level this paves the way for testing 1.2500. Bond yield spreads are higher and markets see risk of a liquidity squeeze to continue occurring in the Eurozone financial markets.

GBP

Bias is to the downside and we view that the weakness in sterling will continue if EUR retraces sharply, in order to keep the EUR/GBP pairing competitive. We view 1.5350 as the near term target and below 1.5000 a major psychological level for sterling.

AUD

AUD is seen to hover around the 1.02/1.04 area but with the risk of Reserve Bank of Australia easing rates coupled with concerns of a slowdown in China’s economy, the AUD is susceptible to risk aversion trades. The early part of 2012 witnessed long AUD trades (i.e. buying of AUD) against the EUR. Nonetheless, we see this as purely a cyclical trade for hedge funds in the early part of the year before mix of profit taking and medium term fundamental play comes into the picture. The breach below parity is expected for the AUD and sees the weakness in the AUD once Chinese economic numbers reflect to be significant a slowdown.


Euro sepertinya akan mengalai tekanan dalam kaitannya dengan Yunani. Negara akan dipaksa untuk memperkenalkan program pengetatan baru untuk menerima bantuan selanjutnya dari IMF. Kami melihat bahwa EUR/USD meningkat secara tidak stabil dan akan sepertinya berkerak ke arah 1.2284. Gagal menembus level ini akan menguji 1.2500. Spread yield bond lebih tinggi dan market akan melihat resiko mengecil untuk melanjutkan muncul di financial market dikawasan eurozone.

GBP perkiraan kearah penurunan dan kami melihat bahwa pelemahan akan berlanjut jika EUR bergerak secara tajam, untuk menjaga EUR/GBP competitif. Kami melihat 1.5350 dalam target jangka pendek dan dibawah 1.50000 adalah titik psikologis untuk sterling.

AUD AUD dilihat akan mengambang disekitar area 1.02/1.04 tetapi dengan resiko bahwa kebijakan penurunan suku bunga RBA akan meningkat sebagai respon dari perlambatan perekonomian China, the AUD rentan kepada perdagangan yang mengindari resiko. Awal tahun 2012 menjadi kuatnya perdagangan ( contoh pembelian AUD) terhadap EUR. Meskipun demikian , kami melihat ini adalah siklus perdagangan bagi para hedge fund diawal tahun sebelum bercampur profit taking dan fundamental akan berperan dalam jangka menengah. Pemecahan dibawah parity diharapkan untuk AUD dan melihat pelemahan AUD akan menjadi signifikan ketika perekonomian China merefleksikan pelemahan Page 14

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Foreign Exchange

MYR

MYR

We foresee 3.200 as the next major target on the upside if 3.1700 are taken out. Although fundamentals of the economy have not showed deterioration, we note possible the external factors to act as headwinds on any possibility of MYR strength. Our 1Q2012 target of 3.400 against the Dollar remains intact.

Kami mengawasi 3.200 sebagai target utama penguatan jika 3.1700 terlampaui. Meskipun fundamental dari perekonomian belum menunjukkan pelemahan, kami mencatat kemungkinan faktor ekternal untuk mengarahkan kepada penguatan MYR. Target 1Q2012 di 3.400 terhadap Dollar tetap utuh.

SGD

SGD

SGD is inching its way towards 1.3000 and with expectation of external trade conditions to worsen in the months ahead, the SGD is appropriately positioned to soak up this pressure. What this means is that the bias for further SGD weakness is intact, as 1.31/1.32 levels are seen achievable.

SGD menguatkan arahnya ke 1.30000 dan dengan harapan bahwa kondisi perdagangan ekternal untuk memburuk di bulan mendatang, SGD secara wajar ditempatkan untuk meredam tekanan ini. Ini artinya adalah bias untuk pelemahan SGD adalah untuh, sebagaimana level 1.31/1.32 terlihat akan tercapai.

IDR

IDR

We view 9,200 as the next major target for USD/IDR as risk aversion trades bail out from long positions in the Indonesian debt market. We see the risk of breaching 9,200 happening when the Bank Indonesia is forced to allow some degree of IDR weakness to compensate weakening external and global demand.

Kami melihat 9,200 adalah target selanjutnya untuk USD/IDR sebagaimana perdagangan menghindari resiko pembalikan arah dari pasar obligasi negara Indonesia. Kami melihat resiko menembus 9,200 terjadi jika Bank Indonesia dipaksa untuk memperbolehkan pelemahan IDR untuk mengkompensasikan pelemahan ekternal dan permintaan global.

THB We expect 32.00 Baht against the Dollar as the next near term target as impact from recent floods play out in weaker economic numbers. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is expected to further ease monetary policy and that said the bias for THB weakness will remain intact.

THB Kami harap 32.00 Baht terhadap Dollar sebagaimana tahun depan target akibat dampak dari banjir akan berperan di dalam pelemahan angka perekonomian. Bank of Thailand diharapkan untuk melonggarkan kebijakan moneter dan dikatakan pelemahan THB akan tetap utuh.

Source: Suresh Kumar Ramanathan Regional Rates/FX Strategist CIMB Group Treasury Fixed Income Research Team CIMB Investment Bank Bhd PT Bank CIMB Niaga, Tbk January 2012

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Disclaimer

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Disclaimer

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CIMB Preferred MARKET INSIGHTS. INDONESIA PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk

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