Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
IHSG
3.927,1
38,5
0,99%
Ulasan Pasar 4000 3950
Mengawali kegiatan perdagangan di bulan Juli ini, IHSG kembali membukukan rekor harga baru dengan pencapaian tingkat harga di level 3.957.
3900
Yang merupakan pijakan untuk mendekati
3850
4.000. Akumulasi beli dilakukan oleh para pelaku
3800
asing, yang mencatatkan nilai total pembelian
61.8%
bersih hingga Rp760miliar disaat kekhawatiran
3.790
3750
akan kejelasan masalah penyelesaian krisi utang
3700
Yunani memudar.
3650
IHSG di akhir pekan lalu ditutup dengan
3600
penguatan sebesar 0,99% pada level 3.927,
50.0%
38.2%
dengan total transaksi 109rb kejadian yang 3550
3.530
23.6%
3500 3450
3.420
0.0%
ember
February March
April
May
June
rasio volume transaksi sebesar 8% dibandingkan perdagangan di hari sebelumnya. Mencerminkan adanya kehati-hatian yang ditunjukkan oleh
3400
para pelaku pasar dalam menyikapi kondusifnya
3350
kegiatan bursa regional di awal Juli ini.
3300
November December 2011
justru di iringi oleh pelemahan pertumbuhan
Beberapa signal positif yang tersirat dalam leading indicator, serta arus distribusi yang mulai memasuki zona hijau diharapkan mampu
July
mendorong IHSG melanjutkan rally penguatannya. Kami perkirakan IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini
50
akan cenderung bergerak dalam rentang harga 3.890 - 3.960. Waspadai probabilita tekanan jual
100 50 0 -50
yang akan menyeret IHSG menguji support 3.850 kembali, apabila IHSG gagal bergerak di atas support 3.920.
1000
S1 3,890
S2
R1
3,855
3,960
R2 3,995
500 x100000
ember
November December 2011
February March
April
May
June
July
Saham Pilihan Saham ASII BBCA BMRI INDF TLKM UNTR
Harga (Rp) 65,550 7,800 7,300 6,000 7,200 24,500
Rekomendasi Stochastic StrongSell StrongSell StrongSell Trading Sell OverBought TakeProfit
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
80.57 82.14 94.44 80.95 66.67 70.24
RSI
BB Top
BB Bottom
S1
S2
R1
R2
74.99 73.96 63.24 70.42 44.31 68.16
66,700 7,950 7,400 6,150 7,450 25,400
60,100 7,350 7,000 5,450 7,100 23,200
64,600 7,700 7,250 5,900 7,150 24,200
63,600 7,550 7,200 5,750 7,100 23,850
68,000 8,050 7,400 6,150 7,500 25,750
69,000 8,200 7,450 6,300 7,550 26,100
Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
1
ASII
65,550
StrongSell
2 hal yang patut dicermati serta waspadai akan
261.8% 6500
mengiringi pergerakan ASII pada perdagangan hari ini. 1. lonjakan harga yang menciptakan celah
161.8% 6000
100.0%
support 64.250 dengan kecenderungan arah signal negatif stochastic, yang mencoba keluar
61.8% 50.0% 38.2% 23.6% 0.0%
5500
dari area overbought. 2. Aksi ambil untung yang mampu menahan laju penguatan.
5000
Waspadai tekanan jual yang akan menyeret ASII menguji support 64.600, apabila gagal bergerak
4500
di atas support 65.550.
x10
50
S1 64,600
S2
R1
R2
63,600
68,000
69,000
0 2000 1000 x10000
ember
November December 2011
February March
April
May
June
July
BBCA
7,800 100.0% 8000
61.8% 50.0%
7500
StrongSell
Berada pada kondisi berimbang di area pivot support 7.800, probabilita yang mungkin diperoleh adalah; untuk dapat melanjutkan rally
38.2% 7000
23.6% 0.0%
6500
penguatannya, BBCA harus mampu bertahan dengan support 7.700 mematahkan indikasi signal negatif dead-cross stochastic.
6000
5500
Akumulasi hanya apabila BBCA mampu melampaui 8.050, dalam pencapaian resistensi siklus 8.200.
100 50 0 0
S1
S2
R1
R2
7,700
7,550
8,050
8,200
4000 3000 2000 1000 x10000 mber October
Novem ber
Decem ber
2011
February
March
April
May
June
July
BMRI
7,300 7500
StrongSell
Untuk dapat menciptakan rekor harga baru serta menembus resistensi harga 7.350, BMRI
61.8% 50.0% 38.2%
7000
23.6%
diharapkan mampu memanfaatkan sisa ruang pada stochastic dan arus distribusi yang
0.0%
6500
merambah zona hijau kembali. Waspadai probabilita tekanan yang dapat
6000
membawa BMRI menguji support 7.150.
5500
50
0
S1
S2
R1
R2
7,250
7,200
7,400
7,450
1000 500
x100000
ember
November December 2011
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
February March
April
May
June
Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
July
2
INDF
6,000 100.0%
6100 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 5400 5300 5200 5100 5000 4900
61.8% 50.0% 38.2% 23.6% 0.0%
Trading Sell
Terciptanya rekor harga baru, membuka peluang bagi INDF untuk memanfaatkan sisa ruang menuju target resistensi terdekat di level 6.100-6.150. Waspadai kemungkinan pembalikan arah di tengah rawannya aksi profit taking pada area resistensi 6.150.
4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200
50
S1
S2
R1
R2
5,900
5,750
6,150
6,300
0
5000 x10000
ember
November December 2011
February March
April
May
June
July
TLKM
7,200 261.8%
1000 950 900
161.8%
100.0%
61.8% 50.0% 38.2%
OverBought
Melemahnya signal pada beberapa leading indicator, dikhawatirkan akan memperlebar potensi berlanjutnya tekanan pelemahan bagi TLKM menguji support 7.100 pada perdagangan
850
hari ini.
800
Kami perkirakan TLKM hari ini akan bergerak
750
pada kisaran 7.050 - 7.300.
23.6% 700 0.0% 650 x10
50
0
1000 500 x100000
ember
November December 2011
February March
April
May
June
S1
S2
R1
R2
7,150
7,100
7,500
7,550
July
UNTR
24,500 100.0%
2600 2550 2500 2450
61.8%
2400
50.0%
2350
38.2%
TakeProfit
Aksi profit taking serta derasnya tekanan jual pada perdagangan kemarin, diperkirakan masih akan membayangi pergerakan UNTR di hari ini untuk menguji kekuatan support 23.850.
2300 23.6%
2250 2200
0.0%
2150 2100
Kami perkirakan UNTR pada perdagangan hari ini akan bergerak dalam rentang harga 23.80024.750.
2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 x10
50
500 0 -500
S1 24,200
S2
R1
R2
23,850
25,750
26,100
3000 1000 x10000 ember
November December 2011
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
February March
April
May
June
Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
July
3
TRADE DATA
JCI (IHSG)
3,927.1 6.0% 11.5% 3,810 3,811 3,634
YTD (Rp) YTD (USD) Moving Avg 20day Moving Avg 50day Moving Avg 200day
Nilai (Rpbn) : Mkt Cap (Rptr) : Market P/E (x) : Market Div. Yield (%) :
4,890.3 540.9 698.9 515.4 772.0 3,284.7 1,195.6 527.1 1,177.1 407.7 208.0 2,319.6
Commodities
+/-
(%)
66.7 4.9 8.2 8.6 -4.3 30.3 15.4 -2.7 34.9 4.7 0.5 0.9
1.38 0.91 1.19 0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00
+/-
(%)
MXW O SPX
3,626 3,328 3,439 16.2 2.4 YTD
7.56 1.50 5.67 10.45 -5.77 0.32 9.22 11.19 21.72 5.27 2.41 1.54 YTD
336.71
-1.3
-0.40
1.17
Oil & Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas COAL (Rotterdam) COAL (Amsterdam) COAL (Australia,wk)
94.94 4.31 122.70 123.22 119.55
-0.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0
-0.50 -1.44 0.04 -0.23 0.00
3.90 -2.13 -6.62 -2.17 -2.33
2,490.25 23,000 25,655
-19.0 -425 -395
-0.76 -1.81 -1.52
1.26 -7.07 -4.63
Europe EURO 50 FTSE DAX CAC SMI
Europe London Jerman France Sw iss
BRIC BOVESPA MICEX SENSEX NIFTY SHCOMP SZCOMP
Brazil Russia India India China China
Developed ASIA Nikkei Japan TPX Japan HIS Hong kong KOSPI S.Korea TAIEX Taiw an FSSTI Singapore
(%)
+/-
(%)
1,343.8 1,339.7
12.6 19.0
0.95 1.44
4.98 6.52
12,582.8 2,816.0
168.4 42.5
1.36 1.53
8.68 6.15
274.9 5,989.8 7,419.4 4,007.4 6,237.8
2.1 44.1 43.2 25.1 50.7
0.75 0.74 0.59 0.63 0.82
-0.32 1.52 7.31 5.32 -3.08
63,394.3 1,698.1 18,762.8 5,627.2 2,759.4 1,162.1
990.7 31.5 -83.1 -20.2 -2.7 6.2
1.59 1.89 -0.44 -0.36 -0.10 0.53
-8.53 0.60 -8.51 -8.27 -1.73 -9.98
9,868.1 853.9 22,398.1 2,125.7 8,739.8 3,139.0
52.0 4.6 0.0 25.0 87.2 18.6
0.53 0.55 0.00 1.19 1.01 0.60
-3.53 -5.00 -2.77 3.64 -2.59 -1.60
1,041.5 4,351.6 1,582.9 425.3
0.0 60.4 3.9 -7.3
0.00 1.41 0.25 -1.68
0.84 3.58 4.22 -12.25
1.453 1.607 0.848 0.959 1.077 0.827 80.8 6.465 7.781 1.227 8,547.0
0.002 0.002 0.007 -0.005 0.005 -0.002 0.270 0.001 -0.000 -0.002 -32.000
MSCI W ord S&P 500
US Dow Jones Industrial Nasdaq US
(%)
CRB Index
Industrial M etals Alumunium Nickel Tin
Regional Indices
0.99%
Volume (m) :
Indonesia & Sectors M SCI Indonesia JII L Q45 JAK FIN Index JAK IN FR Index JAK M IN E Index JAK CON S Index JAK TR AD Index JAK M IN D Index JAK BIN D Index JAK PR OP Index JAK AGRI Index
38.5
ASEAN SET PCOMP KLCI VNINDEX
Thailand Philipines Malaysia Vietnam
Currency
Prescious M etal Gold Silver
1,482.60 33.71
-20.2 -1.1
-1.34 -3.18
4.31 9.04
Soft Commodities CPO (Malaysia) CPO (Netherland) Rubber Corn Wheat Soybeans Rice (Indonesia)
3,052.00 1,057.50 4,604.73 606.75 612.25 1,312.75 6,950.00
-55.0 -27.5 -17.9 -22.3 27.5 6.5 0.0
-1.77 -2.53 -0.39 -3.54 4.70 0.50 0.00
-19.98 -17.70 -7.79 -3.54 -22.91 -5.81 -2.11
Losers
Winners Stock
Price
(%)
AUTO INDF ICBP ASII BBRI SMGR ADRO BBCA BUMI BMRI
3,650 6,000 5,600 65,550 6,700 9,850 2,500 7,800 3,000 7,300
12.31 4.35 3.70 3.15 3.08 2.60 2.04 1.96 1.69 1.39
Stock
JPFA AMRT SGRO TLKM GIAA BRAU UNTR PNBN AALI ISAT
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Price
4,700 3,300 3,350 7,200 520 540 24,500 900 23,250 5,050
(%)
-5.53 -2.94 -2.90 -2.04 -1.89 -1.82 -1.61 -1.10 -1.06 -0.98
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCNY USDHKD USDSGD Rupiah
+/Euro United Kingdom
Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand Japan China Hongkong Singapore Indonesia
YTD
(%)
(%) YTD (%) 0.17 0.13 0.88 -0.51 0.45 -0.23 0.34 0.02 -0.01 -0.15 -0.37
8.53 2.96 -9.35 -3.96 5.25 6.04 -0.36 -2.15 0.11 -4.43 -4.99
Value
(Rpbn)
Volume
(Lot)
Freq
BBRI
480,085
BNBR
564,715
BBRI
3,481
ASII
399,123
DEWA
400,283
BUMI
3,337
BMRI
305,687
BKSL
389,808
MICE
2,375
239,098
ADRO
2,353
230,872
TRST
2,342 2,294 2,217
BUMI ADRO
217,517 210,280
ELTY LPKR
(x)
SMGR
167,350
BULL
181,204
BMRI
INDF
130,495
ADRO
168,034
INDS
CPIN
120,535
DOID
159,852
KLBF
2,064
110,766 108,470
ASRI TRAM
159,632 148,251
BORN
2,037
ASII
1,972
TLKM BBNI
Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
4
Ma triks Saham Teknikal Matriks Ytd H-5 Chg(%) Chg (%)
Code
Last
AALI ACES ADRO AKRA ANTM ASII BBCA BBNI BBRI BBTN BDMN BISI BMRI BSDE BTEL BUMI CTRA ELTY EXCL GGRM HEXA INCO INDF INDY INTP ISAT ITMG JSMR KLBF LSIP MYOR PGAS PTBA RALS SGRO SMCB SMGR SMRA TINS TLKM UNTR UNVR
23,250
-13.25
3,000 2,500 2,125 2,100 65,550
5.26 -6.54 25.00 -15.15
S1 R1 STO RSI MACD H-5
7,800
20.50 20.93
3,900 6,700
2.63 29.47
1,740 6,050 1,290 7,300
4.19 10.00 -31.02
900 360 3,000
2.27 53.19
425 149 6,150 50,000 7,250 4,525 6,000 3,825 17,300
-4.00 21.43 -7.45 17.14 21.80 0.00 -9.05 21.21 -25.00
5,050 44,850
7.79 -7.34 -17.40
3,675 3,450 2,325 12,950
3.52 3.76 -8.46 19.91
4,050 21,200
-9.50 -11.48
790 3,350
-8.14
2,225 9,850 1,150 2,500 7,200 24,500 14,950
= = = = = =
13.18
3.08 0.00 0.00 6.48 -12.28 -10.00 0.82 -6.85
0.43 0.00 6.38 4.94 1.20 7.81 5.41 3.31 5.51 6.10 0.83 -2.27 4.29 1.12 1.41 -6.25 2.41
Rekomendasi
Trading Trading StrongSell TakeProfit OverBought StrongSell StrongSell StrongSell TakeProfit StrongSell Trading StrongBuy StrongSell StrongSell OverBought StrongBuy OverBought OverSold
0.00 0.82 6.38 12.40
OverBought StrongSell StrongSell
0.56 7.14
Trading Trading Sell
0.00 2.98 -2.88 -0.99
OverBought OverBought OverSold OverSold StrongSell
5.00 1.47 2.20 -0.38 1.25 3.41 0.00 -1.47 3.49 3.14 -0.86 1.01 0.70 4.03 -0.33
Bollinger Band To p Bottom
STO
RSI
MACD
50.0 50.0
52.1
(36.6)
23,650
60.2
70.3
3,050
80.6
65.1 77.8 47.3 75.0
19.6 102.5 (23.2) 1,264.7
82.1 85.7 76.5
74.0 58.7 64.0
103.5
88.0 50.0
63.2 53.1 29.1 63.2 51.7 45.7 37.3 53.3
83.3 69.2 63.6
7.1 94.4 80.0 69.2 18.2 72.7 36.0 69.0 86.2 84.8 46.7 81.0 66.7 73.5
46.3 48.9 73.1
Support
Resistance
H-5 Highest Lowest
1
2
3
1
2
3
22,800
23,150
23,050
22,800
23,500
23,750
23,850
23,750
22,800
3,000
2,975
2,950
2,925
3,025
3,050
2,550 2,175 2,150 66,700
2,350 2,100 2,075 60,100
2,475 2,125 2,075 64,600
2,425 2,100 2,050 63,600
2,400 2,100 2,025 62,400
2,550 2,150 2,125 66,800
2,575 2,150 2,150 68,000
3,075 2,625 2,175 2,175 69,000
3,200 2,525 2,200 2,125 67,000
2,800 2,325 1,960 2,025 59,500
42.1
7,950 3,975 6,800
7,350 3,750 6,350
7,700 3,875 6,600
7,550 3,850 6,500
7,450 3,825 6,400
7,950 3,925 6,800
8,050 3,950 6,900
8,200 3,975 7,000
7,900 3,925 6,750
7,250 3,650 6,300
9.7 (22.7) (68.2)
1,760 6,100 1,330
1,660 5,900 1,280
1,710 6,000 1,290
1,680 5,950 1,280
1,660 5,850 1,270
1,760 6,150 1,310
1,780 6,250 1,320
1,810 6,300 1,330
1,740 6,150 1,380
1,630 5,850 1,290
19.5 (3.7) (2.2) (99.8)
7,400
7,000
7,250
7,200
7,150
7,350
7,400
7,450
7,300
6,900
915 368 3,125
880 360 2,900
890 355 2,950
880 350 2,900
870 345 2,850
910 365 3,050
920 370 3,100
930 375 3,150
910 370 3,225
870 345 2,925
1.8 (2.4) (45.8) 1,329.9
437 152 6,350 51,800
408 147 5,900 45,800
424 148 6,100 49,300
422 147 6,000 48,550
419 145 5,900 47,700
429 151 6,300 50,900
432 153 6,400 51,750
434 154 6,500 52,500
430 154 6,300 51,000
410 145 5,800 46,200
143.2 (79.6)
7,450 4,575 6,150 3,875 17,500
6,300 4,450 5,450 3,800 16,600
7,050 4,500 5,900 3,800 17,150
6,800 4,450 5,750 3,775 17,000
6,650 4,400 5,700 3,725 16,800
7,450 4,600 6,100 3,875 17,500
7,600 4,650 6,150 3,925 17,700
7,850 4,700 6,300 3,950 17,850
7,350 4,600 6,000 3,875 17,500
6,400 4,425 5,500 3,725 16,650
5,200 45,800
5,050 44,300
5,050 44,700
5,000 44,550
4,950 44,250
5,150 45,150
5,200 45,450
5,250 45,600
5,200 46,100
5,000 44,550
3,475 3,350 2,275 12,700
3,650 3,400 2,300 12,900
3,600 3,350 2,275 12,800
3,575 3,300 2,225 12,750
3,725 3,500 2,375 13,050
3,750 3,550 2,425 13,100
3,800 3,600 2,450 13,200
3,700 3,500 2,400 13,050
3,475 3,350 2,250 12,550
(8.6)
72.1 38.9 70.4 40.1
74.2 (77.0)
27.3 23.7
58.0 40.0 40.7
10.7 (39.9) (469.2)
OverSold Trading
84.2 37.5 58.3
72.6 54.1 48.1
47.2 (6.7) (24.1)
OverBought OverBought OverBought Trading Trading Trading
78.8 60.0 66.7 43.8 53.3 50.0
56.3 56.6
158.6
3,750 3,500 2,375 13,250
(0.3) (162.0)
4,075 21,350
3,975 20,400
4,050 20,950
4,025 20,650
4,000 20,450
4,100 21,450
4,125 21,650
4,150 21,950
4,100 21,350
3,950 20,350
2.4 (1.1)
805 3,475
765 3,325
780 3,325
765 3,300
760 3,250
800 3,400
805 3,450
820 3,475
810 3,450
760 3,325
2,125
2,200
2,175
2,125
76.7
0.6 39.8
2,275
TakeProfit
2,125 9,300
1,160 2,525 7,350 25,150 15,050
1,170 2,550 7,500 25,750 15,150
1,180 2,575 7,550 26,100 15,200
1,200 2,525 7,400 25,400 15,350
1,130 2,375 7,100 23,350
27.8
9,500 1,120 2,425 6,950 23,250 14,750
2,275 9,950
OverSold
9,600 1,130 2,450 7,100 23,850 14,850
2,350 10,250
30.0 75.0 66.7 70.2
9,750 1,140 2,475 7,150 24,200 14,900
2,325 10,100
OverBought OverBought TakeProfit
9,400 1,130 2,450 7,100 23,200 14,750
2,275 10,000
OverSold
9,950 1,180 2,525 7,450 25,400 15,250
53.5 51.9 47.0 54.2 61.1 49.3 43.9 44.3 68.2 50.8
2.2 (46.1) (95.2) 398.7 18.8
14,750
Support 1 S2 = Support 2 S3 = Support 3 Resisten 1 R2 = Resisten 2 R2 = Resisten 2 Stochastic Oscillator Relative Strength Index Moving Average Convergence Divergence 5 hari sebelumnya
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Chart Addict ! 4 Juli 2011
5
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Equity Analyst
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Equity Analyst
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Technical Analyst
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Research Assistant
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Semarang, Jawa Tengah
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Pekanbaru, Riau
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Sonny Muljadi
Malang, Jawa Timur
(
[email protected])
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk 18th Fl, Artha Graha Building Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190, INDONESIA Tel : (6221) 2924 9088 Fax : (6221) 2924 9163 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company's equity securities.
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Chart Addict ! x Agustus 2010
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