Chart Addict ! 7 Nopember 2011
IHSG
3.783,6
77,8
2,10%
Ulasan Pasar Ditengah kondusifnya sentimen, pada akhir
4250
pekan kemarin IHSG di perdagangan menguat
4200
2,1% ditutup pada level 3.784 (area fibo ratio 50% dan 62%) diwarnai dengan aksi profit taking
4150 4100
100.0%
4050
pada sejumlah saham unggulan di penghujung
4000
sesi perdagangan setelah sebelumnya mencoba
3950
3.790
3900
melakukan penetrasi 3.800 dengan menyentuh
3850
level 3.801.
3800
61.8%
Indeks acuan di Eropa seperti; DAX maupun CAC
3750
mencatatkan pelemahan, masing-masing -2.7%
3700
50.0%
3600
dan -2.3%. Demikian pula DJI, S&P500 serta Nasdaq diwarnai oleh aksi profit taking yang
3550
masing-masing terpuruk -0,5%, -0,6%, -0,4%.
3650
38.2%
3.530 23.6%
3500
Golden-Cross serta momentum yang tercermin
3450
pada stochastic(5d) memberikan cukup ruang bagi IHSG untuk dapat bertahan dalam uptrend
3400
0.0%
3350
channel, dan membuka peluang untuk dapat
3300
bertumpu pada basis support 3.780-3.790.
3250
Dengan tetap mencermati dominasi faktor eksternal serta kondisi ‘overbought’ pada
3200 3150 p
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
sejumlah saham unggulan, kami melihat peluang
Nov
bagi IHSG untuk melanjutkan rally penguatan sedikit terbuka. Apabila pada di awal pekan ini IHSG mampu 50
mengawali perdagangan di atas support 3.780, maka akan tercipta probabilita bagi IHSG untuk bertahan
100
pada area 3.800 dan menguji resistensi 3.820 - 3.860.
0 -100
1000
S1 3,730
S2 3,670
R1
R2
3,820
3,860
500 x100000
p
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Saham Pilihan Saham AALI BBNI BWPT EXCL SGRO TLKM
Harga (Rp) 21,350 4,000 1,180 5,300 3,075 7,600
Rekomendasi Stochastic Trading Trading Trading Trading OverBought TakeProfit
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
46.53 51.52 42.86 45.45 61.29 71.43
RSI
BB Top
BB Bottom
S1
S2
R1
R2
61.28 55.82 56.78 55.36 54.99 60.04
21,550 4,075 1,200 5,400 3,125 7,700
20,900 3,875 1,150 4,950 3,000 7,400
21,100 3,950 1,170 5,250 3,050 7,550
20,850 3,900 1,150 5,150 3,025 7,450
22,050 4,100 1,210 5,450 3,175 7,750
22,300 4,150 1,230 5,550 3,200 7,850
Chart Addict ! 7 November 2011
1
AALI
21,350 2450 2400 2350 2300 2250
0.0%
23.6%
2200
38.2%
2150
Trading
AALI mencoba kembali pada safe-zone area, yang membuka peluang bagi saham tersebut untuk bergerak positif dalam interval 21.000 - 22.000 pada perdagangan hari ini.
2100
50.0%
2050
61.8%
2000 1950 1900 1850 1800
100.0%
1750 1700 1650 x10
50
S1 21,100
S2
R1
R2
20,850
22,050
22,300
-50 -100 x10 3000 1000 x1000 February March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Novem
BBNI
4,000 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600
Trading
Ditutup pada pivot area 4.000, menempatkan BBRI pada kondisi berimbang. Trading
masih
dapat
dilakukan
dengan
mempergunakan basis support konsolidasi 3.9004.100, pada area safe-zone sebagai mana tercermin pada fast moving oscillator.
3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900
50
100 0 -100
S1
S2
R1
R2
3,950
3,900
4,100
4,150
5000 x10000
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
Novemb
BWPT
1,180
Trading
Untuk dapat keluar dari area konsolidasi 1.170-
0.0% 1250
23.6%
1.220, indikasi signal positif pada stochastic(5d)
1200
telah membuka peluang bagi BWPT.
1150
Dengan demikian penetrasi resistensi 1.210 akan mendorong BWPT mencapai target celah
1100
38.2%
resistensi harga 1.240.
1050 50.0% 1000 61.8% 950
50
0
S1
S2
R1
R2
1,170
1,150
1,210
1,230
-50 5000 x10000
ruary March
April
May
June
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
July
August
September
Novemb
Chart Addict ! 7 November 2011
2
EXCL
5,300
Trading
Signal positif leading indicator yang ada, membuka 7000
peluang EXCL untuk melanjutkan penguatannya
6500
menuju resistensi harga 5.650.
6000 0.0% 5500 23.6%
5000
38.2% 4500
50.0% 61.8%
4000
3500
50
0
5000
S1
S2
R1
R2
5,250
5,150
5,450
5,550
x10000
ruary March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Novemb
SGRO
3,075
3800
0.0%
3700 3600
23.6%
3500 38.2%
3400
50.0%
3300
61.8%
3200 3100 3000
100.0%
OverBought
Waspadai berlanjutnya tekanan pada SGRO, apabila signal positif yang tercermin pada leading indicator gagal mendorong SGRO melanjutkan penguatan menuju celah resistensi 3.300. Spekulasi pembelian hanya apabila SGRO bergerak di atas support 3.025.
2900 2800 2700 2600 2500
50
0 -100 -200 3000 2000 1000 x10000 ruary March
April
May
June
July
August
September
S1
S2
R1
R2
3,050
3,025
3,175
3,200
Novemb
TLKM
7,600 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600
61.8%
7500 50.0%
7400 7300
38.2%
TakeProfit
Berada pada overbought area stochastic(5d) 71.4, mengindikasikan terbatasnya ruang penguatan pada TLKM. Akumulasi profit yang telah diperoleh, apabila TLKM bergerak menguji resistensi 7.850.
7200 23.6%
7100 7000 6900
0.0%
6800 6700 6600
50
100 0 -100 5000
S1
S2
R1
R2
7,550
7,450
7,750
7,850
x10000
ruary March
April
May
June
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
July
August
September
Novemb
Chart Addict ! 7 November 2011
3
TRADE DATA
JCI (IHSG)
3,783.6 2.2% 2.8% 3,688 3,683 3,724
YTD (Rp) YTD (USD) Moving Avg 20day Moving Avg 50day Moving Avg 200day
2.10%
Volume (m) : Nilai (Rpbn) : Mkt Cap (Rptr) : Market P/E (x) : Market Div. Yield (%) :
Indonesia & Sectors M SCI Indonesia JII L Q45 JAK FIN Index JAK IN FR Index JAK M IN E Index JAK CON S Index JAK TR AD Index JAK M IN D Index JAK BIN D Index JAK PR OP Index JAK AGRI Index
77.8
+/-
4,775.1 526.5 674.7 509.8 713.9 2,675.2 1,250.7 535.6 1,223.5 387.4 214.8 2,129.9
Commodities
(%)
112.8 10.6 15.5 13.3 9.1 31.6 25.3 18.8 19.7 9.0 4.1 28.0
2.42 2.06 2.35 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
+/-
(%)
4,143 3,328 3,439 16.2 2.4 YTD
(%)
5.03 -1.20 2.02 9.24 -12.85 -18.29 14.25 12.98 26.53 0.05 5.75 -6.76 YTD
(%)
CRB Index
320.44
0.4
0.13
-3.71
Oil & Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas COAL (Rotterdam) COAL (Amsterdam) COAL (Australia,wk)
94.26 3.78 117.45 117.75 116.45
0.2 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.0
0.20 0.13 0.56 1.29 0.00
3.15 -14.12 -10.62 -6.51 -4.86
2,137.00 18,900 22,050
-5.5 480 50
-0.26 2.61 0.23
-13.10 -23.64 -18.03
Industrial M etals Alumunium Nickel Tin
Regional Indices MXW O SPX
+/-
(%)
1,203.1 1,253.2
-3.7 -7.9
-0.31 -0.63
-6.02 -0.35
11,983.2 2,686.2
-61.2 -11.8
-0.51 -0.44
3.50 1.25
239.8 5,527.2 5,966.2 3,123.6 5,659.8
-2.4 -18.5 -167.0 -71.9 -8.2
-1.01 -0.33 -2.72 -2.25 -0.15
-13.07 -6.32 -13.71 -17.90 -12.06
58,669.9 1,501.2 17,562.6 5,284.2 2,528.3 1,071.3
473.6 0.0 80.7 18.4 20.2 6.7
0.81 0.00 0.46 0.35 0.81 0.63
-15.35 -11.07 -14.37 -13.86 -9.96 -17.01
8,801.4 752.0 19,842.8 1,928.4 7,603.2 2,848.2
161.0 13.4 600.3 58.5 142.9 38.2
1.86 1.82 3.12 3.13 1.92 1.36
-13.96 -16.33 -13.86 -5.98 -15.26 -10.71
957.3 4,271.7 1,477.5 410.6
-0.3 61.5 15.1 2.1
-0.03 1.46 1.04 0.52
-7.31 1.68 -2.73 -15.29
1.379 1.603 0.885 1.019 1.038 0.794 78.2 6.340 7.768 1.265 8,938.0
-0.003 -0.001 0.007 0.012 -0.004 -0.002 0.180 -0.004 0.000 0.002 -39.000
MSCI W ord S&P 500
US Dow Jones Industrial Nasdaq US Europe EURO 50 FTSE DAX CAC SMI
Europe London Jerman France Sw iss
BRIC BOVESPA MICEX SENSEX NIFTY SHCOMP SZCOMP
Brazil Russia India India China China
Developed ASIA Nikkei Japan TPX Japan HIS Hong kong KOSPI S.Korea TAIEX Taiw an FSSTI Singapore ASEAN SET PCOMP KLCI VNINDEX
Thailand Philipines Malaysia Vietnam
Currency
Prescious M etal Gold Silver
1,756.10 34.08
-9.0 -0.4
-0.51 -1.20
23.55 10.27
Soft Commodities CPO (Malaysia) CPO (Netherland) Rubber Corn Wheat Soybeans Rice (Indonesia)
3,021.00 1,035.00 3,687.37 655.75 636.75 1,221.00 7,700.00
45.0 0.0 14.6 2.3 0.8 -6.3 0.0
1.51 0.00 0.40 0.34 0.12 -0.51 0.00
-20.79 -19.46 -26.16 4.25 -19.83 -12.39 8.45
Stock
Price
(%)
UNTR SMGR BMRI GGRM INTP BBRI BBCA BBNI ASII TLKM
24,650 9,250 7,200 60,550 15,500 6,800 8,000 4,000 68,300 7,600
5.34 4.52 4.35 3.68 3.68 3.03 2.56 2.56 1.49 1.33
Stock
PTRO BTEL PJAA MFIN AMFG PLIN TPIA BORN TSPC BYAN
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Price
33,200 260 800 1,000 7,000 1,430 2,825 850 2,375 18,250
+/Euro United Kingdom
Switzerland Canada Australia New Zealand Japan China Hongkong Singapore Indonesia
(%) YTD (%) -0.22 -0.05 0.79 1.20 -0.39 -0.21 0.23 -0.07 0.00 0.12 -0.43
3.05 2.70 -5.40 2.08 1.39 1.74 -3.55 -4.04 -0.07 -1.40 -0.64
(x)
ENRG 1,403,776
PICO
10,388
APIC
332,329
APIC
7,391
ASRI
279,855
TMPI
7,304 5,815
(Rpbn)
Volume
(%)
BMRI
401,926
-13.99 -7.14 -5.88 -4.76 -3.45 -3.38 -2.59 -1.16 -1.04 -0.27
BBRI
399,271 239,291
ASII
(%)
Freq
Value
Losers
Winners
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDJPY USDCNY USDHKD USDSGD Rupiah
YTD
(Lot)
PGAS
157,603
BORN
272,045
INAF
BUMI
144,166
KIJA
228,690
BBRI
4,894 3,564
BBCA
131,058
ELTY
225,942
BMRI
BBNI
123,030
BTEL
224,761
GIAA
3,416
ADRO
120,156
PNLF
157,551
ENRG
3,351
118,819 113,410
TMPI BUMI
156,325 121,471
BORN ENRG
Chart Addict ! 7 November 2011
BORN
3,071
MICE
2,585
4
Ma triks Saham Teknikal Matriks Ytd H-5 Chg(%) Chg (%)
Code
Last
AALI ACES ADRO AISA ANTM ASII BBCA BBNI BBRI BDMN BISI BMRI BSDE BTEL BUMI BWPT ELTY EXCL GGRM HEXA HRUM INCO INDF INDY INTP ISAT ITMG JSMR KLBF LSIP MAPI PGAS PTBA RALS SGRO SMCB SMGR SMRA TINS TLKM UNTR UNVR
21,350
-20.34
3,600 2,050
26.32 -23.36 -11.54 -30.51
S1 R1 STO RSI MACD H-5
690 1,720 68,300 8,000 4,000 6,800 5,000 970 7,200 920 260 2,350 1,180 115 5,300 60,550 8,500 8,200 3,550 5,150 2,625 15,500 5,250 43,950 3,925 3,475 2,175 5,050 3,050 18,150
5.26 31.40
9.52 -6.01 -2.29 0.00 -1.23 0.00
Trading StrongSell Trading StrongSell
OverBought Trading Trading
3.92 0.92 8.97
4.04 -48.53 -3.43 -3.67 -19.06 10.56 4.51 -14.37
1.86 -4.70 -4.63 -11.02 -5.20 0.00 -1.68 1.29 -1.42 -2.25 0.00 -3.46 -4.41
1,920
-5.38 -13.71
0.00 -1.54
9,250
-6.09
1,170 1,960 7,600 24,650 15,850
8.33 -31.23 -5.00 1.44 -1.25
0.00
462.3
21,550
68.4 57.7 56.3
33.9 56.3 (4.9)
3,650 2,100
52.4
22.6 949.7
29.5 70.5 59.1
-4.08
0.95 47.50 17.24 -13.23 -28.64
61.3
91.1 48.8
OverSold OverBought Trading Accumulate
-1.67 -4.96
46.5
63.6 55.0
0.00 0.00 -10.34
-9.92 -28.57
MACD
OverBought Trading
11.63 4.55 10.64 -24.80
RSI
OverBought Trading Trading
0.00 -5.83
Trading Trading StrongSell OverBought Trading OverSold OverSold OverSold OverSold OverBought StrongSell Trading Trading TakeProfit TakeProfit Trading Trading Sell
53.8 54.1 55.8 58.8 54.8
29.6 65.4 42.9 46.0 45.5 58.5
44.2 58.5 51.6 24.4 55.1 56.8 47.2 55.4 61.7
83.1 69.2 46.7
67.4 58.2 56.6
37.1 20.0 37.3 26.8 64.5
44.7 48.9 55.5
83.3 51.7 51.9 64.4 69.0 52.2
-1.60
OverBought Trading Trading
43.3 61.3 57.7 41.2
1.74 -3.21
OverBought Trading
66.7 53.9
2.01 -2.18
TakeProfit Trading Trading
71.4 43.5 40.8
0.96
Bollinger Band To p Bottom
STO
85.7 33.9 60.4 54.2 51.5
OverSold
-9.09 -48.13
81.98 -31.84 -24.22 -24.42
650 3,075
= = = = = =
25.55 24.03
1.67 9.09 -3.53
Rekomendasi
56.0 56.4 55.0 54.1 54.2 62.1 60.3 55.9 44.7 55.0 55.6 55.7 57.6 53.9 60.0 58.2 48.4
Support
Resistance
H-5 Highest Lowest
1
2
3
1
2
3
20,900
21,100
20,850
20,500
21,700
22,050
22,300
22,200
20,400
3,300 2,000
3,525 2,025
3,450 2,000
3,400 1,975
3,650 2,075
3,700 2,100
3,775 2,125
3,600 2,150
3,125 1,930
705 1,790 69,950
650 1,640 66,050
675 1,700 67,900
660 1,680 67,500
645 1,660 67,000
705 1,740 68,800
720 1,760 69,300
735 1,780 69,700
700 1,850 70,000
620 1,640 65,500
8,150 4,075 6,900 5,050 1,020 7,400
7,750 3,875 6,550 4,900
7,950 3,950 6,700 4,950
7,850 3,900 6,600 4,900
7,800 3,850 6,500 4,825
8,100 4,050 6,900 5,075
960 7,100
945 7,000
930 6,900
990 7,300
8,250 4,150 7,100 5,200 1,020 7,500
8,100 4,125 6,900 5,150 1,090 7,300
7,700 3,825 6,350 4,800
930 6,750
8,150 4,100 7,000 5,150 1,005 7,400
930 6,550
935 297 2,475 1,200
895 253 2,175 1,150
910 252 2,325 1,170
895 244 2,275 1,150
890 232 2,225 1,140
930 272 2,425 1,200
935 284 2,475 1,210
950 292 2,525 1,230
950 305 2,500 1,230
870 255 2,050 1,130
120 5,400 61,250
111 4,950 56,500
114 5,250 59,550
113 5,150 58,550
110 5,100 57,800
118 5,400 61,300
121 5,450 62,050
122 5,550 63,050
126 5,700 61,150
108 4,850 56,000
85.4 (24.8)
8,950 8,500 3,700 5,350
7,900 7,800 3,375 4,950
6.9 426.0
2,850 16,300
2,450 14,450
8,450 8,100 3,525 5,100 2,575 15,250
8,400 7,950 3,475 5,050 2,525 14,950
8,250 7,800 3,450 4,950 2,450 14,700
8,650 8,400 3,600 5,250 2,700 15,800
8,800 8,550 3,625 5,350 2,775 16,050
8,850 8,700 3,675 5,400 2,825 16,350
8,700 8,500 3,725 5,750 3,050 16,350
7,700 7,600 3,350 4,875 2,525 14,650
1.9 814.7
5,400 45,100
4,900 43,000
5,100 43,500
4,950 43,000
4,850 42,250
5,350 44,750
5,450 45,500
5,600 46,000
5,450 45,100
4,950 42,650
13.3 24.4 30.8 125.1
4,050 3,525 2,250 5,100 3,150 18,500
3,775 3,350 2,100 4,850 2,925 17,650
3,875 3,425 2,150 5,000 3,000 17,900
3,825 3,375 2,125 4,950 2,950 17,650
3,775 3,350 2,100 4,900 2,875 17,400
3,975 3,500 2,200 5,100 3,125 18,400
3,675 3,300 2,050 4,625 2,875 17,300
600 3,000 1,890 8,650 1,140 1,890 7,400 23,150 15,600
20,870
20,870
20,870
20,870
4,075 3,575 2,250 5,200 3,250 18,900 20,870
3,975 3,550 2,300 5,150 3,150 18,800
680 3,125 1,950 9,550 1,190 2,020 7,700 25,150 15,950
4,025 3,525 2,225 5,150 3,200 18,650 20,870
3,050 1,910 9,100 1,150 1,950 7,550 24,250 15,750
3,025 1,890 8,900 1,130 1,930 7,450 23,800 15,650
2,975 1,870 8,800 1,120 1,910 7,400 23,500 15,500
3,125 1,950 9,400 1,180 1,990 7,700 25,000 16,000
3,175 1,970 9,500 1,190 2,010 7,750 25,300 16,150
3,200 1,990 9,700 1,210 2,030 7,850 25,750 16,250
690 3,175 1,960 9,550 1,170 2,050 7,650 25,750 16,400
580 2,900 1,870 8,700 1,130 1,850 7,300 23,000 15,450
54.8 69.5 147.4 58.9 (13.1) 186.0 6.1 (12.3) 34.3 22.2 (1.1) 46.5 1,081.8 212.2 183.1
87.7 382.3 (17.6) 16.9 23.5 174.2 16.0 18.8 47.8 550.5 (71.7)
Support 1 S2 = Support 2 S3 = Support 3 Resisten 1 R2 = Resisten 2 R2 = Resisten 2 Stochastic Oscillator Relative Strength Index Moving Average Convergence Divergence 5 hari sebelumnya
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Chart Addict ! 7 November 2011
5
RESEARCH TEAM Andrian Tanuwijaya
Equity Analyst
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Equity Analyst
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Equity Analyst
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Equity Analyst
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Technical Analyst
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Research Assistant
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EQUITY CAPITAL MARKET TEAM Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
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Pluit, Jakarta
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Artha Graha, Jakarta
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Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
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Mangga Dua, Jakarta
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Semarang, Jawa Tengah
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Surabaya, Jawa Timur
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Denpasar, Bali
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Medan, Sumatera Utara
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Yogyakarta, Jawa Tengah
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Palembang, Sumatra Selatan
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PT Trimegah Securities Tbk 18th Fl, Artha Graha Building Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190, INDONESIA Tel : (6221) 2924 9088 Fax : (6221) 2924 9163 DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in future participate in an offering of the company's equity securities.
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk. Research.
Chart Addict ! x Agustus 2010
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