BULAN

LAMPIRAN I Data Inflasi Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode Januari 2002 - Desember 2013 TAHUN

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

BULAN JANUARI

3.29

2.02

0.09

2.82

-0.12

1.13

FEBRUARI

-0.22

-0.06

0.03

-1.39

0.81

0.47

MARET

-0.55

-0.93

0.84

1.58

0.46

0.22

APRIL

-0.26

-0.25

0.95

1.03

-0.47

-1.1

MEI

1.29

0.07

0.32

0.22

0.63

-0.3

JUNI

0.11

-0.22

1.22

0.59

0.18

0.82

JULI

0.87

0.22

1.02

1.59

0.68

0.88

AGUSTUS

-0.33

1.10

-0.27

0.83

-0.14

0.31

SEPTEMBER

0.47

-1.01

-0.18

0.46

0.49

0.97

NOVEMBER

0.11

1.17

0.45

11.56

0.95

0.59

OKTOBER

2.25

1.02

0.73

1.94

0.58

0.87

DESEMBER

2.25

1.08

1.41

-0.29

1.92

1.58

TAHUNAN

9.59

4.23

6.80

22.41

6.11

6.60

TAHUN

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

JANUARI

1.14

-0.15

1.40

1.97

1.74

1.39

FEBRUARI

0.38

-0.24

0.27

-0.47

-0.81

0.78

MARET

0.92

-0.35

-0.64

-1.03

-0.27

0.34

APRIL

0.21

-0.44

0.03

-0.83

0.23

0.70

MEI

1.57

0.26

0.28

-0.23

0.05

0.28

JUNI

2.18

0

1.90

0.99

1.23

1.28

JULI

1.35

1.15

2.00

0.93

0.67

2.72

AGUSTUS

-0.3

0.93

-0.36

1.12

0.13

0.52

SEPTEMBER

0.25

1.20

-0.14

1.25

-0.03

0.10

NOVEMBER

1.19

0.24

0.38

-0.65

0.35

0.94

OKTOBER

0.36

-0.52

0.94

0.08

-0.03

0.68

DESEMBER

0.57

0.52

1.70

0.53

0.56

0.02

TAHUNAN

10.72

2.61

8.00

3.67

3.86

10.18

BULAN

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 2 Data Kelompok Komoditi Penyusun Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan 7 Kelompok Pengeluaran Periode Januari 2007 – Desember 2012 Periode 2007/M01 2007/M02 2007/M03 2007/M04 2007/M05 2007/M06 2007/M07 2007/M08 2007/M09 2007/M10 2007/M11 2007/M12 2008/M01 2008/M02 2008/M03 2008/M04 2008/M05 2008/M06 2008/M07 2008/M08 2008/M09 2008/M10 2008/M11 2008/M12 2009/M01 2009/M02 2009/M03 2009/M04 2009/M05 2009/M06 2009/M07 2009/M08 2009/M09 2009/M10 2009/M11 2009/M12 2010/M01 2010/M02 2010/M03 2010/M04 2010/M05 2010/M06 2010/M07 2010/M08 2010/M09 2010/M10 2010/M11 2010/M12 2011/M01 2011/M02

SUMUT-Bama 2,55 0,68 1,43 -3,90 -1,36 2,52 1,42 0,23 1,87 0,54 1,68 3,26 2,71 1,82 1,36 -0,28 2,57 2,46 1,48 -0,77 0,84 0,39 1,58 3,74 0,43 -1,36 -2,58 -1,54 0,18 -0,70 1,83 2,35 3,11 0,85 -1,64 -2,09 2,60 -0,37 -2,50 0,98 -0,16 5,48 5,79 -2,67 -1,23 -0,79 4,07 6,48 5,93 -0,77

SUMUT-Mamin 0,72 0,69 0,66 0,18 -0,03 0,55 0,73 0,39 0,59 0,49 0,00 0,02 0,44 0,66 1,18 0,81 0,51 0,34 0,22 1,14 1,53 0,96 -0,01 0,69 0,33 1,93 0,43 1,07 0,69 0,90 0,39 0,36 0,96 0,65 0,52 0,63 2,65 0,86 0,48 0,23 0,91 0,14 0,24 0,37 0,34 1,17 0,45 0,81 1,15 0,08

SUMUT-Perum 2,28 -0,97 0,51 0,20 -0,89 -0,01 0,43 0,78 1,21 0,26 0,27 0,43 0,92 0,47 1,01 0,51 1,12 1,55 1,95 0,45 1,20 0,75 0,25 0,06 0,07 0,19 0,13 -0,39 0,52 0,20 1,80 -1,24 0,32 0,14 0,15 0,75 0,73 0,34 -0,14 0,00 0,05 0,27 0,46 0,99 0,17 0,79 0,10 0,71 0,93 0,48

SUMUT-Sand -0,58 0,73 0,13 0,42 0,16 -0,23 0,71 0,58 0,96 1,15 1,72 0,56 1,78 1,35 1,19 -0,11 -0,16 0,04 1,02 -0,62 0,31 1,28 0,50 1,06 1,02 3,20 1,93 -1,41 -1,06 -0,07 0,11 -0,27 1,18 0,52 0,63 1,36 0,02 -0,49 0,33 0,84 1,29 0,60 0,57 0,09 1,20 1,23 1,13 1,16 0,46 0,16

Universitas Sumatera Utara

2011/M03 2011/M04 2011/M05 2011/M06 2011/M07 2011/M08 2011/M09 2011/M10 2011/M11 2011/M12 2012/M01 2012/M02 2012/M03 2012/M04 2012/M05 2012/M06 2012/M07 2012/M08 2012/M09 2012/M10 2012/M11 2012/M12

-4,75 -4,30 -1,64 1,55 1,63 1,04 2,35 0,09 -0,63 2,39 4,59 -3,28 -1,35 0,56 -0,84 4,00 0,17 0,24 -2,11 -0,37 -0,99 2,09

0,37 0,17 0,75 0,44 1,04 0,89 0,41 0,15 0,83 0,32 1,02 0,23 0,13 0,63 0,37 1,13 0,30 0,73 1,10 0,08 0,08 0,23

0,40 0,13 0,13 0,46 0,15 0,18 0,17 0,52 0,50 0,18 0,89 0,28 0,31 0,31 0,58 0,53 0,17 0,41 0,13 0,09 0,15 0,30

Periode 2007/M01 2007/M02 2007/M03 2007/M04 2007/M05 2007/M06 2007/M07 2007/M08 2007/M09 2007/M10 2007/M11 2007/M12 2008/M01 2008/M02 2008/M03 2008/M04 2008/M05 2008/M06 2008/M07 2008/M08 2008/M09 2008/M10 2008/M11 2008/M12 2009/M01 2009/M02 2009/M03 2009/M04 2009/M05 2009/M06 2009/M07 2009/M08 2009/M09 2009/M10 2009/M11

SUMUT-Kes 0,21 0,09 0,07 0,34 0,24 0,18 0,08 0,11 0,11 0,06 0,10 0,33 0,25 1,11 0,46 1,45 0,15 0,75 0,29 0,45 0,60 0,24 0,03 0,11 0,15 0,51 0,04 0,06 0,34 0,23 0,33 -0,03 0,64 0,24 -0,07

SUMUT-Pendik -0,01 0,06 0,11 0,05 0,08 0,25 4,72 4,68 0,55 0,14 1,23 0,00 0,20 0,09 0,00 0,12 0,71 0,68 3,05 0,91 0,39 0,05 0,30 0,14 -0,02 -0,03 0,08 -0,24 0,12 0,21 2,88 2,34 1,05 -0,01 0,00

SUMUT-Trans 0,05 -0,01 0,09 0,17 0,02 0,08 0,00 0,05 -0,01 0,21 0,11 0,11 0,17 0,09 0,06 -0,72 1,72 8,50 0,72 -0,42 0,06 0,00 -0,12 -2,30 -2,00 -0,53 -0,77 -0,03 0,01 -0,04 0,81 -0,28 -0,04 -0,57 -0,28

0,29 0,76 1,26 0,83 0,35 3,26 1,89 -0,11 0,30 1,48 -0,46 1,12 0,31 -0,25 -0,01 0,13 0,15 1,56 1,20 1,01 -0,20 0,03

Universitas Sumatera Utara

2009/M12 2010/M01 2010/M02 2010/M03 2010/M04 2010/M05 2010/M06 2010/M07 2010/M08 2010/M09 2010/M10 2010/M11 2010/M12 2011/M01 2011/M02 2011/M03 2011/M04 2011/M05 2011/M06 2011/M07 2011/M08 2011/M09 2011/M10 2011/M11 2011/M12 2012/M01 2012/M02 2012/M03 2012/M04 2012/M05 2012/M06 2012/M07 2012/M08 2012/M09 2012/M10 2012/M11 2012/M12

0,13 0,15 0,39 0,28 0,70 -0,03 0,15 0,45 0,03 0,25 0,04 0,01 0,22 0,93 0,33 0,18 0,43 0,53 -0,15 0,62 0,25 0,47 0,39 0,25 -0,24 0,48 0,43 0,44 0,28 0,10 0,24 -0,44 0,42 0,48 0,41 0,36 0,26

-0,09 0,14 0,25 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,07 1,07 1,02 0,87 0,43 0,49 0,14 0,05 0,31 0,13 0,09 0,02 0,02 0,90 0,86 0,77 0,90 0,06 -0,07 0,07 0,54 0,09 0,01 0,08 0,03 1,40 1,05 1,27 1,05 0,06 -0,30

0,26 0,34 0,20 -0,17 0,29 0,05 0,36 0,04 0,25 0,61 -0,96 -0,22 0,22 0,57 -0,38 -0,38 -0,03 0,26 0,33 0,58 0,23 0,40 -1,22 0,31 -0,07 1,22 -0,15 0,12 0,31 0,14 -0,06 1,00 0,22 -0,31 0,11 0,27 -0,13

Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 3 HASIL OUTPUT UJI PENYIMPANGAN ASUMSI KLASIK Hasil Output Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:13 Sample: 2002M01 2013M12 Included observations: 144 Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

0.742361

0.163222

4.548162

0.0000

TPID

-0.111944

0.230831

-0.484963

0.6285

0.001654

Mean dependent var

0.686389

-0.005377

S.D. dependent var

1.381278

S.E. of regression

1.384986

Akaike info criterion

3.503049

Sum squared resid

272.3826

Schwarz criterion

3.544297

F-statistic

0.235189

Prob(F-statistic)

0.628450

R-squared Adjusted R-squared

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

-250.2195 1.642706

Hasil Output Uji langrange Multiple Test (LM-Test). Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic

3.131058

Probability

0.046745

Obs*R-squared

6.165265

Probability

0.045838

Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:44 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

0.000514

0.160832

0.003198

0.9975

TPID

-0.001520

0.227456

-0.006681

0.9947

RESID(-1)

0.187451

0.083862

2.235225

0.0270

RESID(-2)

-0.124296

0.083877

-1.481880

0.1406

R-squared

0.042814

Mean dependent var

-2.01E-17

Adjusted R-squared

0.022303

S.D. dependent var

1.380135

S.E. of regression

1.364658

Akaike info criterion

3.487069

Sum squared resid

260.7207

Schwarz criterion

3.569564

F-statistic

2.087372

Prob(F-statistic)

0.104635

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

-247.0690 1.992712

Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test First Difference Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 15:03 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D(TPID)

-0.440000

1.774897

-0.247902

0.8046

R-squared

0.000326

Mean dependent var

-0.018252

Adjusted R-squared

0.000326

S.D. dependent var

1.775187

S.E. of regression

1.774897

Akaike info criterion

3.992330

Sum squared resid

447.3369

Schwarz criterion

4.013050

Durbin-Watson stat

2.630904

Log likelihood

-284.4516

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Watson Test Dengan Model AR Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

C

0.700431

0.193382 3.622000

0.0004

TPID

-0.071104

0.271680 -0.261718

0.7939

AR(1)

0.166669

0.082283 2.025564

0.0447

R-squared

0.529225

Mean dependent var

0.668182

Adjusted R-squared

0.515357

S.D. dependent var

1.368683

S.E. of regression

1.358133

Akaike info criterion

3.470855

Sum squared resid

258.2335

Schwarz criterion

3.533012

F-statistic

2.107324

Prob(F-statistic)

0.125403

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots

-245.1661 1.923369 .17

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Hasil Output Pengobatan Autokorelasi Uji LM Test Dengan Model AR Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic

1.647263

Probability

0.196340

Obs*R-squared

3.334291

Probability

0.188785

Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/06/14 Time: 02:10 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C

0.033188

0.194317

0.170795

0.8646

TPID

-0.032249

0.271719

-0.118684

0.9057

AR(1)

-0.660402

0.512422

-1.288785

0.1996

RESID(-1)

0.694982

0.516433

1.345736

0.1806

RESID(-2)

0.008483

0.120078

0.070649

0.9438

0.023317

Mean dependent var

-7.38E-13

-0.004993

S.D. dependent var

1.348535

S.E. of regression

1.351897

Akaike info criterion

3.475234

Sum squared resid

252.2123

Schwarz criterion

3.578830

F-statistic

0.823631

Prob(F-statistic)

0.512222

R-squared Adjusted R-squared

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

-243.4792 2.025607

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 4 HASIL OUTPUT UJI KESESUAIAN ( Test Goodness of fit ) Hasil Output Koefisien Determinasi ( R2 ) dan Hasil Uji t-Statistik (Uji Parsial)

Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error t-Statistic

Prob.

C

0.700431

0.193382 3.622000

0.0004

TPID

-0.071104

0.271680 -0.261718

0.7939

AR(1)

0.166669

0.082283 2.025564

0.0447

R-squared

0.529225

Mean dependent var

0.668182

Adjusted R-squared

0.515357

S.D. dependent var

1.368683

S.E. of regression

1.358133

Akaike info criterion

3.470855

Sum squared resid

258.2335

Schwarz criterion

3.533012

F-statistic

2.107324

Prob(F-statistic)

0.125403

Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat Inverted AR Roots

-245.1661 1.923369 .17

Universitas Sumatera Utara

LAMPIRAN 5 Hasil Output Model Autoregressive Untuk Mengukur Tingkat Persistensi Inflasi

Hasil Pengukuran Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Hasil Pengujian Sumber Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:44 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PERSISTENSI_IN FLASI PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-1)

0.264973 (0.10276) [ 2.57861]

PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-2)

-0.027365 (0.10640) [-0.25719]

C

-0.113143 (0.24174) [-0.46803]

BAMA_SUMUT

0.261727 (0.05044) [ 5.18903]

MAMIN_SUMUT

0.091307 (0.25579) [ 0.35697]

PERUM_SUMUT

0.198871

Universitas Sumatera Utara

(0.26513) [ 0.75010] SAND_SUMUT

0.075231 (0.13458) [ 0.55901]

KES_SUMUT

0.509135 (0.40351) [ 1.26176]

PENDIK_SUMUT

0.041862 (0.12006) [ 0.34869]

TRANS_SUMUT

0.100577 (0.10665) [ 0.94308]

R-squared

0.496473

Adj. R-squared

0.420944

Sum sq. resids

49.40715

S.E. equation

0.907443

F-statistic

6.573276

Log likelihood

-87.13169

Akaike AIC

2.775191

Schwarz SC

3.096405

Mean dependent

0.570571

S.D. dependent

1.192502

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Hasil Persistensi Inflasi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Kelompok Komoditi Kelompok Bahan Makanan (BAMA) Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:57 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] BAMA_SUMUT BAMA_SUMUT(-1)

0.428731 (0.11633) [ 3.68539]

BAMA_SUMUT(-2)

-0.320923 (0.11624) [-2.76096]

C

0.626493 (0.27755) [ 2.25726]

R-squared

0.195412

Adj. R-squared

0.171394

Sum sq. resids

321.0311

S.E. equation

2.188952

F-statistic

8.136205

Log likelihood

-152.6322

Akaike AIC

4.446634

Schwarz SC

4.542998

Mean dependent

0.681571

S.D. dependent

2.404707

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Makanan Jadi, Minuman, Rokok dan Tembakau

Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] MAMIN_SUMUT MAMIN_SUMUT(-1)

0.052515 (0.12257) [ 0.42846]

MAMIN_SUMUT(-2)

-0.039091 (0.12372) [-0.31596]

C

0.594893 (0.11894) [ 5.00150]

R-squared

0.004064

Adj. R-squared

-0.025665

Sum sq. resids

14.79560

S.E. equation

0.469925

F-statistic

0.136712

Log likelihood

-44.92992

Akaike AIC

1.369426

Schwarz SC

1.465790

Mean dependent

0.602714

S.D. dependent

0.464009

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Perumahan, Air, Listrik, Gas dan Bahan Bakar Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PERUM_SUMUT PERUM_SUMUT(-1)

0.129243 (0.11158) [ 1.15834]

PERUM_SUMUT(-2)

0.207163 (0.10267) [ 2.01774]

C

0.273959 (0.08517) [ 3.21668]

R-squared

0.074215

Adj. R-squared

0.046579

Sum sq. resids

15.79770

S.E. equation

0.485579

F-statistic

2.685493

Log likelihood

-47.22362

Akaike AIC

1.434961

Schwarz SC

1.531325

Mean dependent

0.413143

S.D. dependent

0.497299

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Sandang Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] SAND_SUMUT SAND_SUMUT(-1)

0.310830 (0.12026) [ 2.58471]

SAND_SUMUT(-2)

-0.174107 (0.11926) [-1.45994]

C

0.545622 (0.13365) [ 4.08260]

R-squared

0.099246

Adj. R-squared

0.072357

Sum sq. resids

42.24515

S.E. equation

0.794056

F-statistic

3.691047

Log likelihood

-81.65050

Akaike AIC

2.418586

Schwarz SC

2.514950

Mean dependent

0.634714

S.D. dependent

0.824443

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Kesehatan Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] KES_SUMUT KES_SUMUT(-1)

-0.005638 (0.11844) [-0.04760]

KES_SUMUT(-2)

0.231193 (0.11845) [ 1.95189]

C

0.224194 (0.05867) [ 3.82105]

R-squared

0.053844

Adj. R-squared

0.025600

Sum sq. resids

5.445373

S.E. equation

0.285086

F-statistic

1.906420

Log likelihood

-9.945180

Akaike AIC

0.369862

Schwarz SC

0.466226

Mean dependent

0.288143

S.D. dependent

0.288807

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Pendidikan, Rekreasi dan Olahraga Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] PENDIK_SUMUT PENDIK_SUMUT(-1)

0.606326 (0.11684) [ 5.18916]

PENDIK_SUMUT(-2)

-0.303143 (0.11678) [-2.59594]

C

0.382582 (0.11940) [ 3.20410]

R-squared

0.287039

Adj. R-squared

0.265757

Sum sq. resids

45.60324

S.E. equation

0.825012

F-statistic

13.48716

Log likelihood

-84.32762

Akaike AIC

2.495075

Schwarz SC

2.591439

Mean dependent

0.551714

S.D. dependent

0.962810

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Kelompok Transportasi, Komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ] TRANS_SUMUT TRANS_SUMUT(-1)

0.285378 (0.12095) [ 2.35953]

TRANS_SUMUT(-2)

-0.144046 (0.12095) [-1.19091]

C

0.115593 (0.13741) [ 0.84123]

R-squared

0.081600

Adj. R-squared

0.054185

Sum sq. resids

86.66074

S.E. equation

1.137297

F-statistic

2.976470

Log likelihood

-106.7984

Akaike AIC

3.137097

Schwarz SC

3.233461

Mean dependent

0.135429

S.D. dependent

1.169420

Universitas Sumatera Utara