DAFTAR ISI
HALAMAN JUDUL ............................................................................................... i PERNYATAAN BEBAS PLAGIARISME ......................................................... ii HALAMAN PENGESAHAN .............................................................................. iii HALAMAN TUGAS ............................................................................................ iv HALAMAN PERSEMBAHAN ............................................................................ v HALAMAN MOTTO ........................................................................................... vi KATA PENGANTAR ......................................................................................... vii DAFTAR ISI ......................................................................................................... ix DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................... xiii DAFTAR GAMBAR .......................................................................................... xiv INTISARI ........................................................................................................... xvii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................... xviii BAB I PENDAHULUAN ...................................................................................... 1 I.1 Latar Belakang ................................................................................................... 1 I.2 Perumusan Masalah ........................................................................................... 2 I.3 Batasan Masalah ................................................................................................. 2 I.4 Tujuan Penelitian ............................................................................................... 3 I.5 Manfaat Penelitian.............................................................................................. 3 BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA ........................................................................... 4 II.1 Blueprint Pengelolaan Energi Nasional 2006-2025 ......................................... 4 II.2 Proyeksi Pembangkitan Listrik PLTMH di Kecamatan Minggir, Sleman Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak WEAP ........................................................... 5 II.3 Proyeksi Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim terhadap Pembangkitan Listrik Tenaga Air di Kolombia Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak WEAP ............................... 5 II.4 Penelitian Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim terhadap Pembangkitan Listrik Tenaga Air di Chili Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak WEAP ....................................... 6 II.5 Kajian Dampak Pemanasan Global terhadap Tata Sistem Hidrologi dan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak WEAP ........ 6
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II.6 Kajian Perencanaan Permintaan dan Penyediaan Energi Listrik di Wilayah Kabupaten Sleman Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP ............................. 6 II.7 Kajian Perencanaan Permintaan dan Penyediaan Energi di Wilayah Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta Menggunakan Perangkat Lunak LEAP ......................... 7 II.8 Proyeksi Permintaan Listrik Sektor Rumah Tangga Menggunakan End-Use Model (Studi Kasus Kota Yogyakarta) ............................................................ 7 II.9 Peningkatan Efisiensi Peralatan Listrik di Indonesia........................................ 7 BAB III DASAR TEORI ..................................................................................... 9 III.1 Hidrologi ........................................................................................................ 9 III.1.1 Daerah Aliran Sungai............................................................................... 9 III.1.2 Presipitasi ............................................................................................... 11 III.1.3 Evapotranspirasi..................................................................................... 12 III.1.3.1 Persamaan Empiris Thornwaite ..................................................... 12 III.1.3.2 Metode Penmann Modifikasi ......................................................... 13 III.1.3.3 Metode Penmann-Monteith............................................................ 16 III.1.4 Debit ...................................................................................................... 18 III.1.4.1 Pengukuran Langsung .................................................................... 19 III.1.4.2 Metode F.J. Mock .......................................................................... 20 III.1.4.3 Metode Soil Moisture ..................................................................... 26 III.2 Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Air .................................................................... 27 III.2.1 Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Mikro Hidro .............................................. 32 III.2.2 Pemilihan Turbin .................................................................................. 32 III.2.2.1 Turbin Impuls ................................................................................. 33 III.2.2.2 Turbin Reaksi ................................................................................. 35 III.3 Manajemen Air-Energi................................................................................. 37 III.3.1 Manajemen Air ..................................................................................... 37 III.3.1.1 Pendekatan Trend ........................................................................... 38 III.3.1.2 Skenario Perubahan Iklim .............................................................. 38 III.3.2 Manajemen Energi ................................................................................. 38 III.3.2.1 Pendekatan Ekonometri ................................................................. 38 III.3.2.2 Pendekatan Proses .......................................................................... 39 x
III.3.2.3 Pendekatan Trend ........................................................................... 39 III.3.2.4 Pendekatan End-Use ...................................................................... 40 III.4 Perangkat Lunak........................................................................................... 41 III.4.1 LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning).............................. 41 III.4.1.1 Bagian-bagian LEAP ..................................................................... 42 III.4.1.2 Tampilan LEAP ............................................................................. 44 III.4.2 WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) ............................................. 46 III.4.2.1 Bagian-bagian WEAP .................................................................... 47 III.4.2.2 Tampilan WEAP ............................................................................ 48 BAB IV PELAKSANAAN PENELITIAN ........................................................ 52 IV.1 Alat dan Bahan Penelitian ............................................................................ 52 IV.2 Tata Laksana Penelitian ............................................................................... 54 IV.2.1 Studi Pustaka ......................................................................................... 55 IV.2.2 Pengumpulan Data ................................................................................. 55 IV.2.3 Pengolahan Data .................................................................................... 55 IV.2.4 Simulasi Perangkat Lunak .................................................................... 56 IV.2.4.1 Simulasi Permintaan Energi ........................................................... 56 IV.2.4.2 Simulasi Ketersediaan Air ............................................................. 58 IV.2.4.3 Integrasi WEAP-LEAP .................................................................. 65 IV.2.5 Skenario ................................................................................................ 66 IV.3 Rencana Analisis Hasil ................................................................................ 67 BAB V HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN .............................................................. 68 V.1 Deskripsi Wilayah ........................................................................................ 68 V.2 Intensitas Energi ........................................................................................... 70 V.2.1 Konsumsi Listrik ................................................................................... 70 V.2.2 Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) ........................................... 71 V.2.3 Pelanggan Listrik .................................................................................. 73 V.2.4 Intensitas Energi .................................................................................... 74 V.3 Debit Andalan .............................................................................................. 76 V.4 Simulasi Perangkat Lunak WEAP-LEAP .................................................... 82 V.4.1 Skenario Business as Usual (BAU) ...................................................... 82 xi
V.4.2 Skenario Perubahan Iklim ..................................................................... 86 V.4.3 Skenario Penghematan .......................................................................... 88 BAB VI KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ............................................................. 91 VI.1 Kesimpulan .................................................................................................. 91 VI.2 Saran ............................................................................................................. 91 DAFTAR PUSTAKA .......................................................................................... 93 LAMPIRAN A ..................................................................................................... 96 LAMPIRAN B ................................................................................................... 103 LAMPIRAN C ................................................................................................... 106 LAMPIRAN D ................................................................................................... 110
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 3.1 Faktor pengali persamaan Thornwaite.................................................... 14 Tabel 3.2 Faktor koreksi Penmann ......................................................................... 15 Tabel 3.3 Hubungan suhu, tekanan uap jenuh, dan elevasi .................................... 15 Tabel 3.4 Nilai radiasi ekstraterestial ..................................................................... 16 Tabel 3.5 Exposed surface ...................................................................................... 22 Tabel 3.6 Nilai soil moisture capacity untuk berbagai tipe tanaman dan tanah... .. 24 Tabel 3.7 Jenis PLTA berdasarkan kapasitas pembangkitan .................................. 31 Tabel 3.8 Klasifikasi turbin .................................................................................... 32 Tabel 4.1 Alat penelitian ......................................................................................... 52 Tabel 4.2 Bahan penelitian ..................................................................................... 54 Tabel 4.3 Skenario .................................................................................................. 67 Tabel 5.1 Detail PLTMH ........................................................................................ 68 Tabel 5.2 Stasiun pemantauan curah hujan dan klimatologi .................................. 77 Tabel 5.3 Data masukan dan keluaran pada LEAP & WEAP ................................ 80
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2.1
Milestone PLTMH ........................................................................... 5
Gambar 3.1
Siklus Hidrologi ............................................................................... 9
Gambar 3.2
Daerah Aliran Sungai ..................................................................... 10
Gambar 3.3
Tipe Sungai .................................................................................... 11
Gambar 3.4
Pengukuran kecepatan aliran dengan current meter ...................... 20
Gambar 3.5
Skema Metode Mock ..................................................................... 21
Gambar 3.6
Skema soil moisture method .......................................................... 26
Gambar 3.7
Skema PLTA .................................................................................. 28
Gambar 3.8
PLTA Pompa ................................................................................. 29
Gambar 3.9
PLTA jenis reservoir ...................................................................... 30
Gambar 3.10 PLTA run-of-river ......................................................................... 31 Gambar 3.11 Skema umum PLTMH ................................................................... 32 Gambar 3.12 Grafik head dan debit turbin .......................................................... 33 Gambar 3.13 Pelton runner ................................................................................. 34 Gambar 3.14 Turbin pelton dengan beberapa nozzle ........................................... 34 Gambar 3.15 Turbin turgo ................................................................................... 35 Gambar 3.16 Cara kerja turbin turgo ................................................................... 35 Gambar 3.17 Turbin Crossflow ........................................................................... 35 Gambar 3.18 Turbin Francis ................................................................................ 36 Gambar 3.19 Turbin Kaplan ................................................................................ 37 Gambar 3.20 Struktur Model LEAP .................................................................... 42 Gambar 3.21 Tampilan awal LEAP ..................................................................... 44 Gambar 3.22 Kolom view bar dan tree pada LEAP ............................................ 45 Gambar 3.23 Tampilan awal WEAP ................................................................... 48 Gambar 3.24 Tampilan data view WEAP ............................................................ 49 Gambar 3.25 Kolom view bar dan tree pada WEAP ........................................... 50 Gambar 4.1
Lisensi perangkat lunak LEAP ...................................................... 53
Gambar 4.2
Lisensi perangkat lunak WEAP ..................................................... 53
Gambar 4.3
Blok diagram alur penelitian ..................................................... 54-55 xiv
Gambar 4.4
Bagan simulasi LEAP .................................................................... 56
Gambar 4.5
Menghubungkan LEAP dan WEAP .............................................. 58
Gambar 4.6
Diagram alir perhitungan evapotranspirasi potensial .................... 59
Gambar 4.7
Diagram alir perhitungan debit metode Mock .......................... 59-60
Gambar 4.8
Skema kalkulasi water supply WEAP ........................................... 61
Gambar 4.9
Tampilan schematic view DAS Bayang ......................................... 63
Gambar 4.10 Tampilan WEAP saat input data .................................................... 64 Gambar 4.11 Menghubungkan LEAP dan WEAP .............................................. 65 Gambar 4.12 Ekspresi maximum availability PLTMH pada LEAP .................... 66 Gambar 5.1
Lokasi PLTMH .............................................................................. 69
Gambar 5.2
Konsumsi listrik kabupaten Pesisir Selatan periode 2007 – 2012 . 70
Gambar 5.3
Grafik pertumbuhan konsumsi listrik kabupaten Pesisir Selatan periode 2007 – 2012....................................................................... 71
Gambar 5.4
PDRB Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan periode 2007 – 2012 ................ 72
Gambar 5.5
Pertumbuhan PDRB Pesisir Selatan periode 2007 – 2012 ............ 72
Gambar 5.6
Pelanggan listrik Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan .................................. 73
Gambar 5.7
Pertumbuhan pelanggan listrik Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan ............ 74
Gambar 5.8
Intensitas energi (kWh per juta rupiah) ......................................... 75
Gambar 5.9
Intensitas energi (kWh per pelanggan) .......................................... 76
Gambar 5.10 Grafik curah hujan bulanan ............................................................ 77 Gambar 5.11 Data masukan evapotranspirasi................................................. 78-79 Gambar 5.12 Validasi perhitungan debit menggunakan WEAP ......................... 81 Gambar 5.13 Permintaan listrik skenario BAU ................................................... 82 Gambar 5.14 Produksi listrik masing-masing PLTMH ....................................... 83 Gambar 5.15 Produksi listrik PLTMH skenario BAU (MWh) ........................... 84 Gambar 5.16 Produksi listrik tahunan PLTMH skenario BAU (GWh) .............. 85 Gambar 5.17 Persentase pemenuhan kebutuhan listrik oleh PLTMH skenario BAU ............................................................................................... 85 Gambar 5.18 Produksi listrik PLTMH skenario perubahan iklim (MWh) .......... 86 Gambar 5.19 Produksi listrik tahunan PLTMH skenario perubahan iklim (GWh).. .......................................................................................... 87 xv
Gambar 5.20 Persentase pemenuhan kebutuhan listrik oleh PLTMH skenario perubahan iklim ............................................................................. 88 Gambar 5.21 Permintaan listrik skenario penghematan ...................................... 89 Gambar 5.22 Persentase pemenuhan kebutuhan listrik oleh PLTMH skenario penghematan listrik ........................................................................ 90
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