UNIVERSITAS SUMATERA UTARA FAKULTAS EKONOMI MEDAN
ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, SUKU BUNGA, NILAI TUKAR, DAN NILAI EKSPOR TERHADAP NERACA PEMBAYARAN INDONESIA SKRIPSI Diajukan oleh : NAMA
: WILL JACKSON
NIM
: 050501091
DEPARTEMEN
: EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN
GUNA MEMENUHI SALAH SATU SYARAT UNTUK MEMPEROLEH GELAR SARJANA EKONOMI MEDAN 2009
Universitas Sumatera Utara
ABSTRACT
Balance of payment is a systematic record about all the economic transactions between the population of a country with another country’s for specific period. The economic relation could be occurred between governments, societies, such as ; private and societies, governments, and the other citizens. The title of the script is “ Analysis Inflation, Rate, Kurs, and Export influence to Balance of Payment “. The problems are how to fluctuate of balance of payment of Indonesia and what kinds of factors which influence it. The research method used by the writer is secondary data. The writer got the data from Indonesian Bank as central Bank in Indonesia and Statistic Center Institution and the data from Library Research. The writer collected the data by directly writing. The data has been analyzing using by SPSS 16.
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DAFTAR ISI DAFTAR ISI.............................................................................................
i
DAFTAR TABEL.....................................................................................
ii
DAFTAR GANBAR.................................................................................
iii
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN.............................................................................
vii
BAB I. PENDAHULUAN 1.1. Latar Belakang..............................................................................................
1
1.2. Perumusan Masalah......................................................................................
4
1.3. Tujuan Dan Manfaat Penelitian.....................................................................
5
BABII. TINJAUAN PUSTAKA DAN HIPOTESIS PENELITIAN 2.1. Neraca Pembayaran...........................................................................................7 2.1.1. Tujuan Penyususnan Neraca Pembayaran...............................................8 2.1.2. Struktur Dasar Neraca Pembayaran.........................................................10 2.2. Inflasi (inflation)................................................................................................16 2.2.1. Defenisi dan Pengertian Inflasi............................................................... 16 2.2.2. Jenis – Jenis Inflasi...................................................................................17 2.2.3. Efek Inflasi................................................................................................20
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2.3. Kurs ( Nilai Tukar Mata Uang)....................................................................
22
2.3.1. Sistem Kurs........................................................................................... 24 2.3.2. Arbitrase..............................................................................................
26
2.3.3. Kurs Spot dan Kurs Berjangka.............................................................. 27 2.3.4. Teori – teori kurs................................................................................... 28 2.3.5. Sistem Bretton Woods............................................................................ 35 2.4. Suku Bunga…………………………………………………………………. 38 2.5. Net Ekspor......................................................................................................
41
2.5.1. Pengertian Ekspor................................................................................
41
2.5.2. Faktor - Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor.......................................
42
2.5.3. Kebijaksanaan Ekspor.........................................................................
43
2.5.4. Aneka Cara Ekspor.............................................................................
44
2.6. Kerangka Konseptual dan Hipotesis Penelitian............................................... 50 2.6.1. Kerangka konseptual penelitian............................................................. 50 2.6.2. Hipotesis Penelitian.................................................................................51
BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN 3.1. Ruang lingkup Penelitian...................................................................................52 3.2. Jenis dan Sumber Data.......................................................................................52 3.3. Pengolahan Data.................................................................................................52 3.4. Metode Pengumpulan Data................................................................................53
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3.5. Model Analisis Data...........................................................................................53 3.6. Defenisi Operasional..........................................................................................65
BAB IV ANALISA DAN PEMBAHASAN 4.1. Gambaran dan Objek Penelitian......................................................................66 4.2. Gambaran Perekonomian Indonesia................................................................73 4.3. Perkembangan Inflasi.......................................................................................75 4.4. Perkembanhgan Tingakat Suku Bunga SBI.....................................................78 4.5. Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dollar AS................................81 4.6. Perkembangan Nilai Ekspor.............................................................................84 4.7. Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia................................................89 4.8. Analisis............................................................................................................98
BAB V. KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 5.1. Kesimpulan....................................................................................................124 5.2. Saran..............................................................................................................128
DAFTAR PUSTAKA.................................................................................................129
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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 4.1. Penduduk dan Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk menurut provinsi 1980 – 2000 Tabel 4.2. Distribusi Persentase Penduduk dan Kepadatan Penduduk Menurut Provinsi 1980 - 2000
Tabel 4.3. Perkembangan nilai inflasi tahun 1985 - 2007 Tabel 4.4. Perkembangan nilai sukubunga SBI tahun 1985 - 2007 Tabel 4.5. Perkembangan nilai tukar tahun 1985 - 2007 Tabel 4.6. Perkembangan nilai ekspor tahun 1985 - 2007 Tabel 4.7. Perkembangan neraca pembayaran Indonesia tahun 1985 - 2007 Tabel 4.8. Neraca Pembayaran, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Ekspor (1985 – 2007) Tabel 4.9. Variabel X1, X2, X3 dengan variabel Y1 Tabel 4.10. Variabel X1, X2, X3 dengan variabel Y2 Tabel 4.11. Variabel Y1 dengan variabel Y2
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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 2.1 : Kerangka Konseptual Penelitian Gambar 3.1. Direct effect Gambar 3.2. Indirect effect Gambar 3.3. Total effect Gambar 3.4 Kurva Uji t-statistik Gambar 3.5 Kurva Uji F-Statistik Gambar 3.6 Kurva Durbin-Watson Gambar 4.1. Direct effect model pertama Gambar 4.2. Kurva Uji F - Statistik Gambar 4.3. Uji t – statistik terhadap inflasi Gambar 4.4. Uji t – statistik terhadap sukubunga Gambar 4.5. Uji t – statistik terhadap nilai tukar Gambar 4.6. Uji D - W Gambar 4.7. Direct effect model kedua Gambar 4.8. Kurva Uji F - Statistik Gambar 4.9. Uji t – statistik terhadap inflasi Gambar 4.10. Uji t – statistik terhadap sukubunga Gambar 4.11. Uji t – statistik terhadap nilai tukar
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Gambar 4.12. Uji D – W Gambar 4.13. Direct effect model ketiga Gambar 4.14. Uji t – statistik terhadap nilai ekspor Gambar 4.15. Uji D – W Gambar 4.16. indirect effect variabel – variabel bebas terhadap neraca pembayaran melalui nilai ekspor Gambar 4.17. Total effect
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