+60%
NAVIGATOR WWW.VECTOR.LU
+48,0%+50%
Report February 2005:
1. Last month 2. Track Record 3. Trade list & Holdings 4. Sector- & Regional Allocation
+40%
+30%
.
+20,1%
+20%
+10%
+0%
4 Year Relative Track Record NAVIGATOR versus MSCI WORLD NAVIGATOR versus AVERAGE Global Equity Funds jan/01
jan/02
jan/03
Depositary Bank: Banque Privée Edmond de Rothschild Europe (Tel: 00352 / 479 34 63 29) Please visit Rothschilds' NAV-centre at www.lcf-rothschild.lu or visit www.vector.lu
jan/04
-10% jan/05
1. PERFORMANCE REPORT (last month's holdings) INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE LAST MONTH (all returns expressed in Euro) +31,2 +25,8 +20,2 +18,4 +17,4 +17,1 +16,6 +15,5 +15,0 +15,0 +14,5 +14,3 +14,0 +13,8 +12,5 +12,2 +11,8 +11,4 +11,3 +11,3 +10,6 +9,8 +9,6 +9,5 +9,4 +9,4 +9,1 +9,0 +9,0 +8,7 +8,6 +8,0 +7,6 +7,4 +7,3 +7,1 +7,0 +6,7 +6,5 +6,4 +6,3 +6,3 +6,2 +6,2 +6,1 +6,1 +5,9 +5,5 +5,4 +5,3
VALLOUREC SUMITOMO HEAVY INDS. EGIS LG CABLE & MCH. JURONG TECHS.INDL. INTOPS LEUMI INTRALOT INTGRTD.SYS.& SVS. BIMBO 'A' GENERALE DE SANTE SALZGITTER CORTEFIEL TRIAD HOSPITALS MANILA ELECTRIC 'B' AMER.EAG.OUTFITTERS APACHE TXU CONOCOPHILLIPS PHILP.LONG DSN.TEL. POALIM RENAL CARE GP. KOITO MANUFACTURING BANK OF PIRAEUS OTP BANK DONGKUK STEEL MILL SONAE SGPS RWE BANK NIAGA DEVON ENERGY MITSUI OSK LINES NICHIHA MITSUI NIPPON YUSEN KK KOREAN REINSURANCE CENTEX KT & G ADELAIDE BANK PARTNERRE ANADARKO PETROLEUM TOSOH BALOISE 'R' MCCARTHY & STONE BURL.NTHN.SANTA FE C TIANJIN DEVELOPMENT HDG. LYONDELL CHEMICAL BRADESCO PN ACE GRONTMIJ BERKLEY W R AMX 'L'
+5,2 +5,0 +5,0 +4,9 +4,8 +4,7 +4,7 +4,3 +3,8 +3,7 +3,3 +2,6 +2,3 +2,3 +2,1 +2,0 +1,7 +1,7 +1,2 +1,2 +1,2 +1,0 +1,0 +0,8 +0,6 +0,1 -0,0 -0,1 -1,0 -1,0 -2,0 -2,1 -2,3 -2,5 -2,5 -2,9 -2,9 -3,1 -4,7 -5,2 -5,2 -5,5 -6,1 -7,4 -8,4 -8,6 -8,8 -9,3 -10,5 -14,8
ASAHI BREWERIES POSCO WILSON BOWDEN SATYAM CMP.SVS. BURLINGTON RES. DOW CHEMICALS INDOSAT PATTERSON UTI EN. BEKAERT NIPPON STEEL VIVENDI UNIVERSAL STORK E ON HBOS DBS GROUP BANK CENTRAL ASIA FORTIS (BRU) ALLSTATE HARTFORD FINL.SVS.GP. EVEREST RE GP. DANISCO CHUBB DELHAIZE SK NORFOLK SOUTHERN TELUS SPRINT CREDIT SUISSE 'R' BASF MAGYAR OLAJ GAZI MOL MAGYAR CHARLES SCHWAB EFG EUROBANK ERGASIAS EDGARS CONS.STORES GERDAU PN AISIN SEIKI STANDARD BK.GP. JAPAN TOBACCO CAPITAL ONE FINL. CATERPILLAR MITSUBISHI CASIO COMPUTER CEMIG PN 1000 ALLIANZ INGRAM MICRO 'A' DORAL FINANCIAL FOSCHINI ELCOTEQ NET.CORP. 'A' LINAMAR SKYWEST ELECTRONICS BTQ.
Last month : NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
Last 12 months :
NAVIGATOR compared to : MSCI World Index Average Global Equity Funds KBC Equity World Fortis Equity World ING Invest World DEXIA Equity World ABN AMRO Global Equity
return
rel.return
+ 1,86 + 1,64 + 1,12 + 1,61 + 2,14 + 1,74 + 1,59
+ 1,67 + 1,89 + 2,41 + 1,92 + 1,39 + 1,79 + 1,94
return
rel.return
+ 3,5 + 0,8 + 0,7 - 1,5 + 1,5 + 3,2 + 0,2
+ 6,9 + 9,6 + 9,7 + 11,9 + 8,9 + 7,2 + 10,2
+ 3,53
+ 10,4
1. PERFORMANCE REPORT (last month) Navigator is zopas gezwind z’n vijfde levensjaar ingestapt. Het fonds ging in januari opnieuw 3,53% hogerop, en deed daarmee 1,67% beter dan de MSCI-wereldindex (en tevens 1,89% beter dan de belangrijkste vergelijkbare aandelenfondsen in de Benelux). Januari was de zesde maand op rij dat Navigator de markt klopte. Gemiddeld bedroeg de outperformance de afgelopen 6 maand 1,25% - dat is iets meer dan 16% op jaarbasis. Het begint er meer en meer op te lijken dat het hercalibreren van het financieel-wiskundig model waarmee Navigator wordt beheerd – een procedure die afgelopen zomer werd uitgevoerd - effectief een meerwaarde heeft opgeleverd, en de resultaten structureel op een hoger niveau weet te tillen. Maar voor afdoende ramingen over hoe groot die meerwaarde precies is, is het nog te vroeg – afwachten wat de komende maanden brengen. Hoedanook is de afstand die Navigator in z’n eerste 4 levensjaren heeft weten op te bouwen tegenover de MSCI-wereldindex (20,1%) en tegenover een set van vergelijkbare aandelenfondsen (48,0%) niet geheel onverdienstelijk. Het is helaas, voorlopig althans, wél onvoldoende gebleken om de aandeelhouders van het eerste uur - waaronder uiteraard de beheerders zelf – ook zonder kleerscheuren voorbij de historische opdoffer te leiden die de aandelenmarkten wereldwijd in de startfase van het fonds hebben geïncasseerd. Maar het einde van de tunnel komt nu toch wel langzaamaan in zicht, en dat is helaas voor de gemiddelde aandelenbelegger nog niet het geval, nog lang niet. Resultaat laatste 12 maanden (31/01/2005, euro) Results last 12 months (31/01/2005, euro) NAVIGATOR : + 10.4% MSCI World: + 3.5% DEXIA Equity World: + 3.2% ING Invest World: + 1.5% KBC Equity World: + 0.7% ABN AMRO Global Equity: + 0.2% Fortis Equity World: 1.5%
4%
3,53%
3%
2%
1%
.
Navigator just swiftly stepped into its 5th year. The fund advanced 3,53% in January, which is 1,67% better than the MSCI, and 1,89% more than the average of the comparable equity-funds of the 5 main financial institutions in the Benelux. January was the sixth month in a row in which Navigator beat the market. On average, the outperformance over the last 6 months was 1,25% per month - which is about 16% on an annual basis. More and more, it seems that the recalibration of the financial model with which Navigator is managed - a procedure which was started this summer – has effectively generated value, in that it has lifted the funds’ performance to a structurally higher level. But of course it is still somewhat early for accurate estimates of how large that added value is – we’re keen to see what happens in the next few months. In any case, the distance that Navigator has built up in its first 4 years vis-à-vis the MSCI (20,1%) and a set of competing funds (48,0%) is not completely without merit. It has, however, proven insufficient to safeguard our shareholders of the first hour – including this funds’ management – from all damage through the historic beating the equity markets took in the starting phase of the fund. But the end of the tunnel is getting near, and that is, unfortunately, not the case for the average equity investor, far from it.
0%
NAVIGATOR versus FUND AVERAGE NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD INDEX Average Global Equity Funds (*)
-1%
-2%
31-12-2004
7/01/2005
14/01/2005
21/01/2005
28/01/2005
2. TRACK-RECORD (absolute figures) +0%
4 YEAR TRACK RECORD
(*) ABN AMRO Global Equity 31/12/2000 967,50 1300,79 1000,00 73,44 892,91 262,25 210,53 66,45 31/12/2001 833,04 1127,02 764,26 39,20 725,68 218,43 177,22 53,17 31/12/2002 576,46 754,97 486,91 24,34 458,85 140,72 116,61 33,50 31/12/2003 677,07 821,60 513,86 25,84 487,03 151,99 123,59 33,96 31/12/2004 760,34 860,32 523,74 26,99 497,48 151,29 126,25 34,41 31/01/2005 787,18 876,32 532,34 27,46 503,06 153,72 128,95 34,96 (*)= Gemiddelde van [average of ] DEXIA Equity World, KBC Equity World, Fortis Equity World, ING Invest World, ABN AMRO Global Equity Price
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
NAVIGATOR
ING Invest World
Return
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005…
-13,9% -30,8% +17,5% +12,3% +3,5%
-13,4% -33,0% +8,8% +4,7% +1,9%
-23,6% -36,3% +5,5% +1,9% +1,6%
-46,6% -37,9% +6,2% +4,5% +1,7%
-18,7% -36,8% +6,1% +2,1% +1,1%
-16,7% -35,6% +8,0% -0,5% +1,6%
-15,8% -34,2% +6,0% +2,2% +2,1%
ABN AMRO Global Equity -20,0% -37,0% +1,4% +1,3% +1,6%
MSCI WORLD AVERAGE Global Equity Funds -10%
-20% -21,3%
+20%
-30%
+10%
-34,5%
+0%
-40%
-10%
-46,8% -20%
NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD DEXIA Equity World KBC Equity World FORTIS Equity World ING Invest World ABN AMRO Global Equity
-30%
-40% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005…
-50%
-60% jan/01
jan/02
jan/03
jan/04
jan/05
2. TRACK-RECORD (relative figures) +60%
4 YEAR RELATIVE TRACK RECORD
(*) ABN AMRO NAVIGATOR Global Equity 31/12/2000 967,50 967,50 967,50 967,50 967,50 967,50 967,50 967,50 31/12/2001 833,04 838,25 739,42 516,42 786,30 805,84 814,42 774,14 31/12/2002 576,46 561,53 471,09 320,65 497,18 519,15 535,88 487,75 31/12/2003 677,07 611,09 497,16 340,42 527,71 560,72 567,96 494,45 31/12/2004 760,34 639,89 506,72 355,57 539,04 558,14 580,19 501,00 31/01/2005 787,18 651,78 515,03 361,76 545,08 567,11 592,59 509,01 (*)= Gemiddelde van [average of ] DEXIA Equity World, KBC Equity World, Fortis Equity World, ING Invest World, ABN AMRO Global Equity Price rescaled to Navigator
RETURN versus MSCI
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005…
+10% +8% +6%
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
NAVIGATOR versus MSCI WORLD
ING Invest World
NAVIGATOR
MSCI WORLD
AVERAGE Global Equity Funds (*)
DEXIA Equity World
KBC Equity World
FORTIS Equity World
ING Invest World
-0,5% +2,2% +8,6% +7,6% +1,7%
+0,0% +0,0% +0,0% +0,0% +0,0%
-10,2% -3,3% -3,3% -2,8% -0,2%
-33,3% -4,9% -2,7% -0,3% -0,1%
-5,4% -3,8% -2,7% -2,6% -0,7%
-3,4% -2,6% -0,8% -5,2% -0,3%
-2,5% -1,2% -2,8% -2,6% +0,3%
ABN AMRO Global Equity -6,6% -4,0% -7,5% -3,4% -0,3%
NAVIGATOR MSCI WORLD DEXIA Equity World KBC Equity World FORTIS Equity World ING Invest World ABN AMRO Global Equity
NAVIGATOR versus AVERAGE Global Equity Funds +50% +48,0%
+40%
+30%
+20,1%
+20%
+4% +2%
+10% +0% -2% -4%
+0%
-6% -8% -10% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005…
-10% jan/01
jan/02
jan/03
jan/04
jan/05
3. Trades & Holdings
for information on these individual stocks, see: www.bloomberg.com
sector market INSURANCE BANKS UTILITIES, OTHER ELECTRICITY OIL & GAS
BD BG BD US US
5 TOP SELLS
5 TOP BUY'S
ALLIANZ FORTIS (BRU) RWE TXU DEVON ENERGY
RYL.BK.OF SCTL. BNP PARIBAS BANCA INTESA AFLAC RELIANCE INDS.
Top 10 Holdings RYL.BK.OF SCTL. CONOCOPHILLIPS HBOS BNP PARIBAS E ON CREDIT SUISSE 'R' DOW CHEMICALS BASF ALLSTATE VIVENDI UNIVERSAL
Market UK US UK FR BD SW US BD US FR
Sector BANKS OIL & GAS BANKS BANKS UTILITIES, OTHER BANKS CHEMICALS CHEMICALS INSURANCE MEDIA & PHOTOGRAPHY
market sector UK FR IT US IN
market value (mln.E)
83.330 53.088 50.108 49.616 49.305 39.114 37.823 31.084 28.207 26.723
BANKS BANKS BANKS LIFE ASSURANCE CHEMICALS
average volume (mln E.)
336,6 192,5 172,4 165,3 2,2 160,6 128,7 2,3 84,5 133,3
De herschikkingen van afgelopen maand geven de portefeuille een wat cyclischer karakter. Zowel niet-cyclische diensten als consumentengoederen worden afgebouwd, ten voordele van hun cyclische evenknie. Verder bouwen we onze posities in Grondstoffenproducenten en Informatietechnologie verder af ten voordele van Financials en Basisindustrieën. De meest overwogen sectoren in de portefeuille zijn nog steeds Staal, Verzekeringen en Engineering. We zijn daarentegen relatief weinig belegd in Farmacie, Olie en Software. Vanuit geografisch oogpunt schroeven we onze belangen het sterkst terug in Japan, de VS en België. De opbrengsten gaan in de eerste plaats naar Azië en Groot-Brittanië. De portefeuille is relatief weinig belegd in Noord-Amerika, Groot-Brittanië (voorlopig toch nog) en Japan, en is relatief sterk aanwezig in de rest van Azië, en in West- en Oost-Europa.
.
+++ Asia, West- & Eastern Europe Steel, Insurance, Engineering Overweighted
--North America, UK, Japan Pharmacy, Oil, Software Underweighted
The changes we made last month have turned our portfolio somewhat more cyclical. As well Non-cyclical Services as Consumer goods were reduced, in favor of their cyclical counterparts. We further reduce our holdings in Resources and Information Technology, in favor of Financials and Basic Industries. We are overweighted in Steel, Insurance and Engineering, and underweighted in Pharmacy, Oil and Software. Our intrests in Japan, the US and Belgium are reduced in favor of the rest of Asia and the UK. We are underweighted in the US, the UK (allthough less than last month) and Japan, and now have relatively strong positions in the rest of Asia, and in Westernand Eastern-Europe.
SECTOR ALLOCATION FINANCIALS (banks, insurance…) : 27%=>29%
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (internet, hardware, software...) : 6%=>4%
RESOURCES (oil, gas, mining…) : 8%=>5%
UTILITIES (electricity, water…) : 5%=>4%
NON-CYCLICAL SERVICES (telecom, food retailers…) : 7%=>6%
BASIC INDUSTRIES (chemicals, steel, construction….) : 14%=>16%
CYCLICAL SERVICES (distribution, retail, media, transport…) : 12%=>18%
NON-CYCLICAL CONSUMER GOODS (pharma, food, packaging, tobacco…) : 9%=>4%
GENERAL INDUSTRIALS (aerospace, engineering, electronics…) : 9%=>10%
CYCLICAL CONSUMER GOODS (auto, textile, household goods...) : 3%=>4%
REGIONAL ALLOCATION Latin-America : 5% US & Canada : 32%=>27%
Australia : 1%
Japan : 13%=>7%
South-Africa : 3%=>4%
Eastern Europe : 5% Asia (ex Japan & Australia) : 16%=>24%
UK & Ireland : 3%=>5%
Scandinavia : 2%
Southern Europe (France, Italy, Spain…) : 8% Western Europe (Benelux, Germany, Switzerland,...) : 12%
This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such offer or sollicitation is not authorised. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The value of investments may fall as well as rise. Any decision to invest should be based on a full reading of the fund prospectus and the most recent financial statements, available at www.vector.lu
