D - RESEARCH Kamis, 12 Mei 2011 INDEKS
Posisi
(%)
IHSG
3,838.14
0.99
DJIA
12,630.03
-1.02
NIKKEI
9,821.69
-0.44
FTSE
5,976.00
-0.71
23,291.80
-0.19
3,177.18
0.66
KOMODITI
Posisi
(%)
Nikel
24,550
1.95
8,700
-2.36
Timah
29,125
-0.65
Minyak
98.21
-5.46
4.19
0.22
120.85
-1.02
1,506.25
0.34
3,374
0.82
Karet
1,396.42
0.38
KURS
Posisi
(%)
IDR/USD
8,536
-0.06
IDR/SGD
6,909
-0.14
IDR/AUD
9,136
0.13
IDR/JPY
105.13
0.11
IDR/EUR
12,144
1.22
Hang Seng STI
Tembaga
Gas Batubara Emas CPO
DUAL
Dollar
(%)
Rp.
TLKM
35.900
0.64
7,660.61
ISAT
30.290
0.23
5,170.81
BLTA
0.060
0.00
414.53
STATISTIK BURSA Kap. Pasar (triliun)
3,266.92
Vol. Transaksi (juta lbr)
7,179.13
Nilai Transaksi (miliar)
4,549.87 Rate (%)
SBI (9 bln) SUN (10th) Fed Rate
7,40 112.94 0.25
Yunita Tanzaria (
[email protected] ) +62-21-3509777 ext. 3502
Trading Ideas ■
Pada perdagangan hari Rabu kemarin IHSG ditutup menguat 37,62 poin (0,99%) ke level 3.838,14.
■
Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan akan bergerak pada support resistance 3.800-3.857. Support resistance kedua berada di 3.744-3.914.
■
Pada perdagangan hari Rabu kemarin indeks DJIA ditutup melemah 130,33 poin (-1,02%) ke level 12.630,03.
AKR perkuat bisnis batubara (ID) PT AKR Corpindo Tbk (AKRA) memperkuat bisnis batubara dengan membentuk joint venture bernama PT Berkah Rusun Bersama. AKR menggandeng PT Austal Byna, pemilik konsesi hutan di Kabupaten Barito Utara, Kalimantan Tengah untuk mendirikan usaha ini, melalui anak usahanya PT Anugrah Karya Raya. Kepemilikan saham di perusahaan joint venture tersebut mencapai 50%, sementara sisanya dipegang Austal Byna. Gajah Tunggal bidik pendapatan Rp12,3T (ID) GJTL membidik pendapatan Rp12,3T pada 2011, naik 25% dibandingkan 2010 sebesar Rp9,85T. Target tersebut dipatok setelah perseroan membukukan pendapatan Rp2,89T pada kuartal I-2011, tumbuh 25% dari periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp2,31T. Pertumbuhan pendapatan tahun ini akan ditopang oleh meningkatnya permintaan pasar domestik dan harga jual ban. Tahun ini GJTL menyiapkan capex sebesar US$15-25juta untuk meneruskan ekspansi pabrik ban sepeda motor dan ban radial yang sudah dimulai sejak 2005 dan berakhir pada 2012. Batas atas bea keluar CPO turun (BI) Pemerintah menetapkan batas atas 25% bea keluar CPO akan diturunkan setelah peraturan pengenaan dan penetapan bea keluar ekspor direvisi. Sistem bea keluar ekspor CPO berlaku secara progresif mengikuti pergerakan harga komoditas itu di pasar internasional. Ekspor minyak kelapa sawit akan dikenakan bea keluar 0% jika rata-rata harga komoditas tersebut selama sebulan sebelumnya di CIF Rotterdam berada di bawah US$700/ton dan akan dikenakan bea keluar 1,5% saat harga rata-rata US$701-US$750/ton, sedangkan jika harga rata-rata US$751-US$800/ton akan dikenakan bea keluar sebesar 3%.
Kamis, 12 Mei 2011
D-RESEARCH
Trading Ideas Reinisiasi coverage saham RALS dengan TP Rp 850, BUY − Reinisiasi coverage saham RALS dengan rekomendasi BUY dengan TP Rp 850, yang mengimplikasikan PE FY11-12 sebesar 15,8x dan 14,8x. − Perekonomian Indonesia diprediksi akan tumbuh 6,4% di 2011 dilatarbelakangi oleh meningkatnya konsumsi. Selain itu, inflasi diperkirakan akan stabil sebesar 6,2% sehingga akan mendorong daya beli masyarakat. Karenanya, outlook RALS tahun ini akan positif, dan penjualan diperkirakan tumbuh 11% p.a 3 tahun CAGR didasarkan oleh same-store-growth (SSG) sebesar 8% p.a (dengan asumsi opex terhadap penjualan flat sekitar 21%).
Analis: Vina Hosea Penjualan diperkirakan tumbuh 11% CAGR (Rp miliar) 10,000
+11% Cagr (11F-14F)
8,000
+7% Cagr (07-10)
6,000 4,000 2,000 -
− RALS akan menambah 6 toko baru, yaitu 3 di Jawa dan 3 di luar Jawa. Selain itu, tahun lalu RALS baru saja menambah 2 pusat distribusi di Samarinda dan Pekanbaru (total ada 6 hingga saat ini), yang akan membantu perusahaan untuk melakukan penetrasi pasar. Untuk mendukung ekspansi tersebut, RALS menganggarkan sekitar Rp 400 miliar capex. − Supermarket Ramayana diperkirakan memberikan kontribusi sekitar 28-29% terhadap total penjualan. Namun demikian, gross margin supermarket masih rendah yaitu 12-13% dan produktivitas sekitar Rp 11,25 juta/sqm. Untuk itu, RALS akan mempertimbangkan untuk melakukan joint venture dengan perusahaan asing.
2007
2008
Earnings table Year end to Dec, Rp bn Revenue (Rp bn) Gross profit (Rp bn) EBITDA (Rp bn) Net profit (Rp bn) PER x Core profit (Rp bn) Core EPS (Rp) Core EPS growth % Core PER x EV/EBITDA x Dividend Yield % BVPS (Rp)
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Breakdown gross margin Fashions
Toys, stationaries
Supermarket items
Total (RHS)
Household products
100%
30%
80%
29%
28.2% 27.5%
60%
− RALS telah berkomitmen untuk membayarkan sekitar 50% dari earnings 2010 sebagai dividen, dengan dividen yield 3,6%. Saat ini saham RALS diperdagangkan dengan PE FY11 sebesar 13,6x, atau lebih rendah dibandingkan 22,2x rata-rata PE FY11 retail lainnya.
2009
26.9%
27.6%
27.5% 27.0%
26.7%
26.7%
40%
27.4%
28%
27.0% 27%
25.9% 20%
26%
0%
25% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Revisi terhadap forecast 2009 5,459 1,471 446 335 15.5 362 51 (10) 14.3 8.2 4.2 348
2010 6,060 1,659 514 355 14.6 363 51 0 14.3 9.3 3.4 378
2011F 6,712 1,816 593 382 13.6 382 54 5 13.6 6.9 3.6 405
2012F 7,424 2,009 630 407 12.7 407 57 7 12.7 6.4 3.9 434
2013F 8,242 2,230 707 464 11.2 464 65 14 11.2 5.4 4.1 469
Rp/USD, EoP Est capex, Rp bn Sales, rp bn Operating profit, rp bn Core profit, Rp bn Operating margin, % Core profit margin, %
Old
2011F New
Chg, %
Old
2012F New
Chg, %
9,945 300 6,765 541 496 7 7
9,122 400 6,712 403 382 6 6
8 33 1 25 23 2 2
10,243 225 7,357 587 542 7 7
9,193 325 7,424 435 407 5 5
10 44 -1 26 25 2 2
2
Kamis, 12 Mei 2011
D-RESEARCH
Aksi Korporasi Cum
Ex
Saham
Nominal (Rp) Closing (Rp)
Yield (%)
Tanggal
Saham
Agenda
12-Mei
13-Mei
BPFI
10
200
5,00
12-Mei
MEGA
RUPS
12-Mei
13-Mei
LPGI
112
1.710
6,55
12-Mei
BRPT
RUPSLB
22-Mei
23-Mei
AALI
640
24.050
2,66
12-Mei
BLTA
RUPS
Kuotasi Danareksa
Danareksa Obligasi Ritel (DORi) Bid (%)
Offer (%)
ORI 003
100,50
102,50
ORI 004
100,50
102,50
ORI 005
107,00
110,50
ORI 006
101,50
104,25
ORI 007
100,50
102,00
SR 001
102,00
106,00
SR 002
100,50
102,50
SR 003
100,25
101,25
Saham-saham dengan PER rendah di 2011F
Bberg Code
Rating
AKRA IJ SMSM IJ RALS IJ DILD IJ EXCL IJ
BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
Price (Rp) 1,610 1,150 720 350 6,300
Price
Mkt Cap
PER (x)
Target (Rp)
Rp Bn
2011F
1,750 1,500 1,120 750 7,500
6,157 1,656 5,086 4,354 44,667
3.0 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.8
Net Profit Growth 2011F
2012F
N/M 11% 24% 35% 43%
-71% 13% 9% 118% 11%
3
Kamis, 12 Mei 2011
D-RESEARCH
Rekomendasi Fundamental
Rekomendasi Teknikal Saham
Closing (Rp)
Support 2 Support Resisten (Rp) 1 (Rp) 1 (Rp)
Resisten 2 (Rp)
Saham
Harga (Rp)
Kapitalisasi (Rpmiliar)
Rekomendasi
TP (Rp)
Upside (%)
52 hi (Rp)
52 lo (Rp)
YTD (%)
TLKM
7,600
7,350
7,500
7,650
7,800
TLKM
7,600
153,216
BUY
8,750
15.13
9,800
6,600
(4.40)
BBRI
6,300
5,925
6,150
6,375
6,600
BBRI
6,300
155,416
BUY
7,200
14.29
6,650
3,800
20.00
ASII
59,250
53,625
57,000
60,375
63,750
BMRI
7,150
166,833
BUY
8,300
16.08
7,350
4,622
11.87
PGAS
4,175
4,000
4,113
4,225
4,338
ISAT
5,300
28,800
HOLD
5,850
10.38
6,500
4,100
(1.85)
BMRI
7,150
6,900
7,050
7,200
7,350
UNTR
22,900
85,420
HOLD
24,500
6.99
25,574
15,046
0.08
ISAT
5,300
4,950
5,175
5,400
5,625
PGAS
4,175
101,208
BUY
5,000
19.76
4,650
3,250
(5.65)
UNTR
22,900
21,475
22,375
23,275
24,175
TINS
2,750
13,841
BUY
3,300
20.00
3,475
1,780
0.00
ANTM
2,250
2,063
2,175
2,288
2,400
BBCA
7,350
181,214
HOLD
7,000
(4.76)
7,700
4,950
14.84
BBNI
3,950
3,775
3,888
4,000
4,113
UNVR
15,000
114,450
HOLD
15,000
0.00
19,200
13,600
(9.09)
TINS
2,750
2,575
2,688
2,800
2,913
BUMI
3,600
74,784
BUY
4,125
14.58
3,650
1,280
19.01
BBCA
7,350
6,975
7,200
7,425
7,650
BBNI
3,950
73,662
BUY
5,700
44.30
5,100
2,086
1.94
UNVR
15,000
14,675
14,900
15,125
15,350
ASRI
315
5,627
BUY
400
26.98
320
132
6.78
BUMI
3,600
3,425
3,538
3,650
3,763
INTP
17,000
62,581
BUY
18,700
10.00
19,400
12,750
6.58
BNII
610
590
605
620
635
SMGR
9,350
55,460
BUY
10,300
10.16
10,350
7,250
(1.06)
INTP
17,000
16,175
16,700
17,225
17,750
INDF
5,650
49,609
HOLD
6,000
6.19
5,800
3,300
15.90
INCO
4,925
4,738
4,850
4,963
5,075
BDMN
6,050
50,938
BUY
8,050
33.06
7,100
4,600
8.16
INDF
5,650
5,325
5,550
5,775
6,000
AALI
24,050
37,873
HOLD
24,500
1.87
27,650
17,050
(8.21)
BDMN
6,050
5,825
5,975
6,125
6,275
SMRA
1,110
7,629
HOLD
1,400
26.13
1,300
660
1.84
SMGR
9,350
9,025
9,250
9,475
9,700
GGRM
41,350
79,561
BUY
50,000
20.92
52,500
29,300
3.38
AALI
24,050
23,550
23,850
24,150
24,450
EXCL
6,300
53,667
BUY
7,500
19.05
7,100
3,325
18.87
LSIP
2,450
2,338
2,413
2,488
2,563
JSMR
3,475
23,630
BUY
4,000
15.11
3,900
1,750
1.46
PTBA
21,800
21,175
21,625
22,075
22,525
MYOR
11,550
8,854
BUY
13,500
16.88
13,350
4,925
7.44
BLTA
425
403
418
433
448
RALS
720
5,109
BUY
850
18.06
1,130
650
(15.29)
BNGA
1,750
1,660
1,720
1,780
1,840
SMCB
2,175
16,667
HOLD
2,300
5.75
2,575
1,800
(3.33)
INTP
17,000
16,175
16,700
17,225
17,750
MPPA
1,350
7,528
SELL
640
(52.59)
1,930
830
8.97
LPKR
760
685
730
775
820
GJTL
2,675
9,322
BUY
2,390
(10.65)
2,700
650
16.30
CTRA
410
335
380
425
470
MASA
390
2,388
BUY
475
21.79
405
200
18.18
CTRP
420
385
408
430
453
ITMG
47,500
53,671
BUY
60,500
27.37
57,950
29,850
(5.61)
ELTY
156
145
152
160
167
BTEL
380
10,823
SELL
280
(26.32)
395
119
61.70
ENRG
190
163
179
196
212
ASII
59,250
239,865
HOLD
58,500
(1.27)
60,750
36,050
8.62
JSMR
3,475
3,288
3,400
3,513
3,625
CTRA
410
6,218
BUY
470
14.63
510
290
17.14
KIJA
129
117
124
132
139
CTRP
420
2,583
BUY
488
16.19
460
265
(4.55)
KLBF
3,475
3,250
3,400
3,550
3,700
PTBA
21,800
50,230
BUY
27,300
25.23
26,000
15,550
(5.01)
SMCB
2,175
2,063
2,138
2,213
2,288
DOID
1,260
8,556
BUY
1,720
36.51
1,700
750
(21.74)
SGRO
3,475
3,225
3,375
3,525
3,675
MAPI
3,500
5,810
BUY
3,400
(2.86)
3,625
600
30.84
4
Kamis, 12 Mei 2011
D-RESEARCH
Valuation Guide Bberg Code Rating Danareksa Universe Auto Astra I nt ernational Gajah Tunggal Mult is trada Selamat Sempurna Banks BCA BNI BRI Danamon Mandiri Cement Holcim Indocement Semen G resik Construction JS MR TOTL Consumer Indofood CB P Tempo Scan Gudang G aram Indofood Kalbe Mayora Mitra Adi Ramayana Unilever ACES Heavy Equipment HEXA UNTR Mining ADRO Bumi BYAN Timah Inco INDY Aneka Tambang PTBA ITMG Plantati on AALI SGRO BWPT BISI LSIP Proper ty Alam Sutera BSD CTRA CTRP DILD LPKR SMRA Telco BTEL Excelcom Indosat Telk om Utili ty PGN Chemical SOBI AKRA Conglom erate DOI D/ BUMA
Auto ASII IJ HOLD GJTL I J BUY MASA IJ BUY SMSM IJ BUY Banks BBCA IJ HOLD BBNI I J BUY BBRI IJ BUY BDMN IJ BUY BMRI IJ BUY Cement SMCB IJ BUY INTP IJ BUY SMGR IJ BUY Construction JSMR IJ BUY TOTL IJ BUY Consumer ICBP IJ BUY TSPC I J BUY GGRM IJ BUY IND F IJ HOLD KLBF IJ HOLD MYOR IJ BUY MAPI IJ BUY RALS IJ BUY UNVR IJ HOLD ACES IJ HOLD H eavy Equipment HEXA IJ BUY UNTR IJ HOLD Mining ADRO IJ BUY BUMI IJ BUY BYAN IJ SELL TINS IJ BUY INC O IJ BUY IND Y I J HOLD ANTM IJ BUY PTBA IJ BUY ITMG IJ HOLD P lantation AALI IJ HOLD SGRO IJ BUY BWPT IJ BUY BISI IJ SELL LSIP IJ BUY P ro perty ASRI I J BUY BSDE IJ BUY CTRA IJ BUY CTRP IJ BUY DIL D IJ BUY LPKR I J BUY SMRA IJ BUY Telco BTEL IJ SELL EXCL IJ BUY ISAT IJ SELL TLKM IJ BUY U tility PGAS IJ BUY Chemical SOBI IJ SELL AKRA IJ BUY Conglomerate DO ID IJ BUY
P rice (Rp)
Price Target (Rp)
Mkt Cap Rp Bn
PER (x) 20 10 2011
EV / EBITDA (x) 2010 2011
P/BV (x) 2 010 20 11
19.2 16.3 16.7 10.7 13.9 10.9 20.1 23.8 15.6 17.6 18.3 21.9 NA NA 19.4 15.3 19.6 19.8 15.6 22.4 18.0 19.9 19.2 16.8 25.4 18.3 28.9 12.6 33.8 26.5 19.5 17.0 19.7 22.9 33.7 24.9 78.2 14.6 12.8 27.8 8.0 25.0 29.2 18.0 18.8 14.5 19.7 24.3 16.2 24.4 23.3 26.8 24.3 14.8 14.4 27.7 35.9 15.3 97.8 15.4 40.0 13.1
15.3 14.6 14.6 16.8 11.0 9.8 16.2 21.5 14.2 13.3 14.0 16.9 NA NA 16.6 15.7 16.4 16.5 15.1 19.3 15.9 17.1 16.4 14.9 22.4 16.9 12.1 10.2 30.3 21.3 15.8 16.1 15.8 14.5 16.0 15.1 36.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 12.1 13.3 11.7 14.3 14.8 13.3 14.9 18.5 12.6 18.4 14.3 17.9 22.1 11.0 10.6 23.5 26.3 13.5 n/m 10.8 18.2 13.3
6 4.4 1 3.8 14.5 7.5 9.3 6.5 1 0.8 17.4 7.3 8.6 7.6 12.4 NA NA 12.6 10.7 1 3.8 14.3 4.1 1 3.1 9.8 13.8 12.2 8.0 15.7 10.3 14.5 6.9 25.2 15.9 1 0.1 11.7 10.0 35 2.0 10.1 9.8 36.7 8.7 7.7 75.0 4.2 19.4 13.6 1 0.8 11.4 8.3 11.6 14.8 10.0 1 5.7 16.0 17.0 19.0 6.9 8.7 17.5 19.5 5.1 8.1 5.9 5.3 4.7
52 .2 11 .7 12.1 8.5 8.2 5.6 9 .5 14.7 7.6 7.6 6.4 10.8 NA NA 10.3 10.5 13 .0 13.4 3.5 11 .4 8.7 11.8 10.5 6.8 14.1 9.4 13.1 5.7 22.6 12.6 8 .2 11.3 8.1 226 .9 7.0 5.4 17.3 6.1 7.4 31.2 5.8 9.1 7.4 8 .7 9.0 8.1 8.3 11.8 7.8 12 .3 9.2 12.8 15.7 4.3 6.3 16.6 15.7 4 .7 6.9 5.2 4.7 4.5
4.0 3.9 4.1 2.7 1.5 2.9 4.4 5.7 2.9 4.7 3.0 4.4 NA NA 4.8 4.6 2.8 2.8 1.6 4.5 3.3 3.5 3.7 2.0 5.7 4.3 4.0 1.9 28.3 4.5 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.5 4.0 3.5 17.5 3.3 2.9 3.9 2.0 7.8 8.3 4.3 5.1 3.0 4.3 3.9 3.7 1.8 2.6 3.8 0.9 0.7 1.2 2.3 3.6 2.6 1.4 4.0 1.6 2.7
Dividend Yield 2010 2011
59,250 2,675 390 1,150
58,500 2,390 475 1,500
7,350 3,950 6,300 6,050 7,150
7,000 5,700 7,200 8,050 8,300
2,175 17,000 9,350
2,300 18,700 10,300
3,475 310
4,000 256
5,250 2,100 41,350 5,650 3,475 11,550 3,500 720 15,000 2,675
6,000 2,050 50,000 6,000 3,100 13,000 3,250 1,120 15,000 2,700
6,450 22,900
3,500 24,500
2,325 3,600 16,950 2,750 4,925 4,125 2,250 21,800 47,500
2,425 4,125 9,700 3,300 5,875 4,800 3,500 27,300 60,500
24,050 3,475 1,190 1,660 2,450
24,500 3,700 1,350 1,080 2,950
315 930 410 420 350 760 1,110
400 1,160 470 488 750 890 1,400
380 6,300 5,300 7,600
280 7,500 6,400 8,750
2,351 ,808 253 ,209 239,844 9,322 2,388 1,656 637,1 70.1 181,214 73,584 155,299 50,790 176,283 134 ,724 16,667 62,598 55,460 24 ,472 23,630 842 340 ,657 30,613 9,450 79,561 49,607 32,639 8,854 5,810 5,086 114,450 4,588 81 ,603 5,418 76,185 410 ,296 74,367 69,809 56,500 13,841 48,936 21,479 21,462 50,230 53,671 70 ,939 37,873 6,568 4,803 4,980 16,716 53 ,018 5,627 10,170 6,218 2,583 4,354 16,437 7,629 232 ,175 7,177 44,667 28,805 151,526
3.3 3.2 3.3 2.3 1.3 2.3 3.4 5.1 2.2 3.8 2.7 3.0 NA NA 4.0 3.6 2.4 2.4 1.5 3.9 2.8 3.1 3.2 1.7 4.9 3.6 3.0 1.7 25.8 3.7 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 2.8 11.7 2.8 2.7 3.2 1.9 5.4 6.1 3.6 4.4 2.6 3.4 3.4 3.0 1.7 2.3 3.2 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2 2.3 1.4 3.1 1.5 2.4
2% 2% 2% 0% 0% -6% 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% NA NA 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0.0 -3% -3% 0% 2% -2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 3% -3% 5% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 4%
2% 3% 3% 0% 0% -5% 3% 2% 4% 5% 4% 3% NA NA 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0 .0 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 0.0 -4% -3% 0% 2% -2% 2% 2% 3% 0% 0% 3% 4% -2% 3% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 3% 5%
4,175
5,000
95,973
15.4
12.9
9.4
8.5
6.4
5.0
4%
4%
3,100 1,610
2,350 1,750
2,858 6,157
24.8 20.5
16.9 3.0
11.0 11.3
7.4 7.8
3.4 2.1
2.9 1.5
2% -2%
2% -11%
1,260
1,720
8,556
19.8
13.1
4.2
3.4
13.5
6.7
0%
0%
5
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