SKRIPSI
PROGRAM NUKLIR IRAN SEBAGAI ANCAMAN TERHADAP KEAMANAN NASIONAL ISRAEL
Disusun dan diajukan untuk memenuhi salah satu syarat memperoleh gelar Sarjana Ilmu Politik (S.IP) Strata – 1 Jurusan Ilmu Hubungan Internasional
Oleh: ASTRI NURANI NIM: 08260006
UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH MALANG FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL DAN ILMU POLITIK 2013
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KATA PENGANTAR
Assalamu’alaikum Wr. Wb. Ucapan Alhamdulillah, segala puji bagi Allah Tuhan semesta alam. Puji syukur yang tidak terhingga dipanjatkan kepada Allah SWT, Maha Suci Allah Dzat yang Maha Agung lagi Maha Mengetahui, sebaik – baik Penyayang dari para penyayang, Maha Besar dan Maha Pemurah. Dengan rahmat-Nya pula, dengan waktu dan kesehatan yang telah Dia berikan sehingga penulis dapat menyelesaikan tulisan ini. Tulisan ini merupakan usaha penulis untuk memperlihatkan hubungan program nuklir Iran dengan keamanan nasional Israel sendiri. Dengan mengambil latar belakang yang merujuk pada sejarah hubungan Iran dan Israel, persepsi ancaman Israel yang muncul diakibatkan oleh peningkatan kapabilitas Iran yang diukur secara kuantitas menggunakan perhitungan CINC (Composite Index of National Capabilites) dalam data set NMC (National Material Capabilites) yang dibuat oleh David Singer dan intentions yang dilihat melalui peningkatan kapabilitas militer Iran dan pernyataan para pemimpin Iran sendiri terhadap Israel. Penulis menyadari bahwa skripsi ini jauh dari sempurna dan masih terdapat banyak kekurangan dalam penulisannya. Oleh karena itu, ide, kritik dan saran yang bersifat membangun sangat diperlukan dan diharapkan sehingga tulisan ini menjadi salah satu referensi yang bermanfaat bagi para pembaca. Akhir kata penulis berharap skripsi ini dapat memberikan kontribusi, sekalipun kecil yang bermanfaat untuk menambah dan mengembangkan pengetahuan mengenai studi Hubungan Internasional. Wassalamu’alaikum Wr. Wb.
Malang, 23 Mei 2013 Penulis
Astri Nurani
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DAFTAR ISI Cover .................................................................................................................. i LEMBAR PERSETUJUAN ............................................................................... ii LEMBAR PENGESAHAN ............................................................................... iii BERITA ACARA BIMBINGAN SKRIPSI ....................................................... iv PERNYATAAN ORISINALITAS ..................................................................... v KATA PENGANTAR ....................................................................................... vi DAFTAR ISI ................................................................................................... vii DAFTAR GAMBAR ......................................................................................... ix DAFTAR SKEMA ............................................................................................. x DAFTAR TABEL ............................................................................................. xi BAB I PENDAHULUAN A. Latar Belakang Masalah ................................................................................ 1 B. Rumusan Masalah ......................................................................................... 4 C. Tujuan Penelitian .......................................................................................... 5 D. Manfaat Penelitian ......................................................................................... 5 E. Kerangka Pemikiran 1. Penelitian Terdahulu ................................................................................. 5 2. Tingkat Analisa ........................................................................................ 9 3. Landasan Berpikir a) Threat Perception ............................................................................... 10 b) Keamanan Nasional (National Security) ............................................. 16 c) Definisi Ancaman ............................................................................... 19 F. Metode Penelitian 1. Jenis Penelitian ....................................................................................... 20 2. Ruang Lingkup Penelitian ....................................................................... 21 3. Teknik Pengumpulan Data ...................................................................... 22 4. Teknik Analisa Data ............................................................................... 22 G. Hipotesa ...................................................................................................... 22 H. Alur Pemikiran ............................................................................................ 23 I. Sistematika Penulisan .................................................................................. 23 BAB II PROGRAM NUKLIR IRAN A. Sejarah Program Nuklir Iran ...................................................................... 25 B. Perkembangan Program Nuklir Iran .......................................................... 31 C. Ancaman Nuklir Iran ................................................................................. 36 BAB III KEAMANAN NASIONAL ISRAEL A. Konsep Keamanan Nasional Israel ............................................................. 42 B. Doktrin Nuklir Israel .................................................................................. 47 C. Pernyataan Para Pemimpin Israel ............................................................... 53 BAB IV KAPABILITAS NUKLIR DAN INTENTIONS IRAN A. Kapabilitas Iran 1. Peningkatan Kapabilitas Nuklir Iran ........................................................ 57 2. Rudal Iran dan Aktivitas Uji Coba Rudal Iran ......................................... 64 3. Perbandingan Kapabilitas Iran dan Israel berdasarkan CINC (Composite Index of National Capability) .................................................................. 74 vii
B. Intentions Iran 1. Kapabilitas Militer Iran .......................................................................... 76 2. Pernyataan Para Pemimpin Iran ............................................................. 83 BAB V PENUTUP Kesimpulan ...................................................................................................... 90 DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................... xii
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DAFTAR GAMBAR Gambar 1. Situs Nuklir Iran Tahun 2008 ........................................................... 57 Gambar 2. Fasilitas Program Nuklir Iran .......................................................... 58 Gambar 3. Jumlah Sentrifugal di Natanz .......................................................... 62 Gambar 4. Daftar Rudal Iran dan Jarak Jangkauannya ...................................... 73 Gambar 5. Perbandingan Data Militer Iran dan Israel ....................................... 77 Gambar 6. Perbandingan Persenjataan Iran dan Israel ...................................... 78 Gambar 7. Perbandingan Angkatan Laut Iran dan Israel ................................... 79 Gambar 8. Perbandingan Militer Iran dan Israel ............................................... 83 Gambar 9. Pernyataan Brigadir Jenderal Amir Ali Hajizadeh ........................... 87 Gambar 10. Footage dari parade militer Iran .................................................... 89
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DAFTAR SKEMA Skema 1. Operasionalisasi Threat Perception ................................................... 14 Skema 2. Alur Pemikiran ................................................................................. 19
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DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 1. Peningkatan Kualitas Pengayaan Uranium Iran ................................... Tabel 2. Daftar Rudal Iran ................................................................................ Tabel 3. Komponen Variabel CINC ................................................................. Tabel 4. Skor CINC Iran 2005 – 2007 .............................................................. Tabel 5. Skor CINC Israel 2005 – 2007 ............................................................ Tabel 6. Perbandingan Angkatan Udara Iran dan Israel ....................................
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http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Israel_Facing_Stark_Choices_Over_A_ Nuclearized_Iran_999.html. Covault, Craig. 2007. Iran’s ‘Sputnik, Aviation Week & Space Technology diakses dari http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1197. Crail, Peter. Iran Missile Tests Heighten International Concerns. Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies, http://www.wmdinsights.com/I11/I11_ME1_IranMissile.htm. Dangerous Liaisons. The Economist. 19 Desember 2007, diakses dari http://www.economist.com/node/10329031?story_id=10329031. Eisenstadt, M. The Challenges of US Preventing Military Action. http://kms2.isn.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ESDP/93402/ichaptersection_si ngledocument/dccced4d-d6e9-465d-8c27-24341a4fcfb0/en/Chapter+7.pdf Elleman, M. Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program. diakses dari http://iranprimer.usip.org/sites/iranprimer.usip.org/files/Iran_s%20Ballistic %20Missile%20Program.pdf tanggal 14 Februari 2013. Federation of American Scientists, http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/israel/nuke/ Gelfan, L. & Ben-David, A. 14 Nopember 2008. New missile marks 'significant leap' for Iran capabilities. Jane's Defence Weekly, diakses dari http://www.janes.com/products/janes/defence-securityreport.aspx?ID=1065927438. Golov, Avner (et.all). 2010. A National Security Doctrine for Israel. Policy Paper. IDC Herzliya, diakses dari http://portal.idc.ac.il/en/Argov/Documents/A_National_Security_Doctrine _for_Israel__Avner_Golov_Ran_Michaelis_Ory_Vishkin_Rony_Kakon.pdf Haaretz. 15 Nopember 2006. Olmert: World has Reached The Pivotal Moment of Truth on Iran, diakses dari http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/788303.html. Iran, diaskes dari http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/ Jewish Virtual Library. Israel Attitudes Toward Iran. 16 Agusuts 2012, http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Society_&_Culture/ispoiran.ht ml Lizner, Dafna. Iran Is Judged 10 Years from Nuclear Bomb. Washington Post, 2 Agustus 2005. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2005/08/01/AR2005080101453.html Marciano, I. 27 Desember 2005. Mossad: 1 Nuclear Bomb Won’t Suffice Iran’, YNET, diakses dari http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L3190940,00.html Martin, P. 10 Februari 2010. Nuclear Iran must be stopped, Israel says. The Globe and Mail, diakses dari http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/nuclear-iran-must-bestopped-israel says/article1462407/ Missile, diakses dari http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/delivery-systems Mistry, Dinshaw. 2007. European Missile Defence: Assessing Iran’s ICBM Capabilities. http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_10/Mistry Norlen, Tova C. Israel Identity and Its Security Dilemma. ISN ETH Zurich Digital Library, 22 Agustus 2012 diakses dari http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/SpecialFeature/Detail?ord633=grp1&lng=en&id=151635&contextid774=151635
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&contextid775=151630&tabid=1453288294 pada tanggal 30 Agustus 2012. Nugroho, N. 28 September 2009. Iran Sukses Tembak Rudal Shahab-3 diakses dari http://international.okezone.com/read/2009/09/28/18/260452/iransukses-tembak-rudal-shahab-3 Piven, Ben. 24 April 2012. Iran and Israel: Comparing Military Machine. AlJazeera, diakses dari http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2012/03/201232613134385363 6.html Popeski, R. 26 Desember 2007. Iran Needs No Uranium Enrichment: Russia's Lavrov. Reuters, diakses dari www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL2626503220071226 Rubin, Michael. Iran and the Palestinian War against Israel: Implications of the Karine-A Affair. American Jewish Committee Middle East Backgrounder. 26 Februari 2002, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policyanalysis/view/iran-and-the-palestinian-war-against-israel-implications-ofthe-karine-a-af Sahimi, M. Iran’s Nuclear Energy Program. Part V. Payvand News Service. 22 Desember 2004, diakses dari http://www.payvand.com/news/04/dec/1186.html. Schell, Jonathan. The Threat Has Not Diminished. The Guardian. 9 Desember 2007, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/dec/09/thethreathasnotdi minished?INTCMP=SRCH. Sheinberg, Alon. 3 Agustus 2011. Israel’s Grand Strategy: Deterring Iran’s Ballistic Missile Threat, diakses dari http://www.crethiplethi.com/israelsgrand-strategy-deterring-irans-ballistic-missile-threat/israel/2011/ The Israel Project. Factsheet: Iran’s High Explosives Weapons Testing Site at Parchin, diakses dari http://www.theisraelproject.org/site/apps/nlnet/content3.aspx?c=ewJXKcO UJlIaG&b=7712197&ct=11757181#.UUco2nKXE1I Vick, Charles. 2007. The Operational Shahab-4/No-dong-B Flight Tested in Iran for Iran & North Korea Confirmed. GlobalSecurity.org, diakses dari http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2006/cpvick-no-dongb_2006.htm Warrick, Joby. 30 Agustus 2012. U.N.: Iran speeding up uranium enrichment at underground plant, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-0830/world/35492313_1_uranium-enrichment-uranium-stockpile-iaea-report. Washington Times. 5 April 2005. Missiles Sold to China and Iran. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/apr/5/20050405-1158037960r/ Williams, Dan. Israel Won’t Rule Out Strike on Iran Nuclear Sites. Reuters. 11 Desember 2005, diakses dari http://www.redorbit.com/news/international/326820/israel_wont_rule_out _strike_on_iran_nuclear_sites/ Wilner, A & Cordesman, A.H. Iran and The Gulf Military Balance. Center for Strategic & International Studies. 1 Desember 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/111128_Iran_Gulf_Military_Bal.pdf Zahedi, Ardeshir. Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. Wall Street Journal, 25 Juni 2004. http://www.ardeshirzahedi.org/nuclear.html xiv
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