Sedikit Tanggapan atas
Rencana Perubahan Fraksi Harga Saham
Patricius Sendjojo Universal Broker Indonesia 2013 Jakarta
Fraksi dan Redenominasi Indonesia Stock Exchange Fraksi Sekarang Sebelum Redenominasi Bawah Atas Fraksi 50 199 1 200 495 5 500 1990 10 2.000 4975 25 5.000 50
Apabila Redenominasi Bawah Atas Fraksi 0,050 0,199 0,001 0,200 0,495 0,005 0,500 1,990 0,010 2,000 4,975 0,025 5,000 0,050
Fraksi Direncanakan oleh BEI Sebelum Redenominasi Bawah Atas Fraksi 50 499 1 500 4995 5 5.000 10
Apabila Redenominasi Bawah Atas Fraksi 0,050 0,499 0,001 0,500 4,995 0,005 5,000 0,000 0,010
Komparasi Praktek Tick Price Own Currency Bursa
IDR
IDR Redominasi
Tick Group
Curr
Min
Max
Conv
Curr
Min
Max
Curr
Min
Max
IDX
5
IDR
1
50
1
IDR
1
50
IDR
0.001
0.05
SET
8
Bath
0.01
2
367
IDR
3.6737
734.74
IDR
0.003674 0.73474
SGX
3
SGD
0.001
0.01
9,233
IDR
9.2333
92.333
IDR
0.009233 0.092333
HKEX
11
HKD
0.001
5
1,486
IDR
1.48623 7431.15
IDR
0.001486 7.43115
ASX
3
AUD
0.001
0.01
10,865
IDR
10.86462 108.6462
IDR
0.010865 0.108646
KRX
7
Won
1
1
11
IDR
10.76
10.76
IDR
0.01076 0.01076
NYSE
3
USD
0.0001
0.01
11,525
IDR
1.1525
115.25
IDR
0.001153 0.11525
BSE
2
Rupe
0.01
0.05
187
IDR
1.8652
9.326
IDR
0.001865 0.009326
Terkecil
1 IDX
9.326 Terkecil BSE
0.001 0.009326 IDX
BSE
Pertanyaan Mitos / Fakta ? • Apakah Dengan Perubahan Fraksi Baru akan memberikan peningkatan Likuiditas dan/atau Frekuensi dan/atau Total Transaksi Bursa ?? • Apakah Relevan membandingkan IDX dengan SGX dan Bursa Malaysia dengan jumlah Investor yang jauh lebih banyak daripada Indonesia ?? • Semakin Lama Berinvestasi maka semakin kecil pula risiko investasi • Semakin Lama Berinvestasi maka semakin besar pula tingkat keuntungannya
IHSG Performace
Day Trader (1) @wikipedia Day trader refers to the hold time that a trader, trading in capacity of speculator, buys and sells financial instruments (e.g. stocks, options, futures, derivatives, currencies) within the same trading day, such that all positions will usually be closed before the market close of the trading day. This trading style is called day trading. Depending on one's trading strategy, it may range from several to hundreds of orders a day. • •
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There are 2 types of day traders: institutional and retail. Both institutional and retail day traders are described as speculators, as opposed to investors. Institutional day traders work for financial institutions and have certain advantages over retail traders due to their access to more resources, tools, equipment, large amounts of capital and leverage, large availability of fresh fund inflows to trade continuously on the markets, dedicated and direct lines to data centers and exchanges, expensive and high-end trading and analytical software, support teams to help and more. These advantages give them certain edges over retail day traders.[1] Retail day traders work for themselves, or in partnership with a few other traders. Retail traders generally trade with their own capital, though they may also trade with other people's money. Laws may restrict the amount of other people's money a retail trader can manage. In the United States, day traders may not advertise as advisors or financial managers. Although not required, nearly all retail day traders use direct access brokers as they offer the fastest order entry to the exchanges, as well as superior software trading platforms. In the past, most day traders were institutional traders due to the advantages they had over retail traders. However, since the technology boom in the second half of the 1990s, advances in personal computing and communications technology, realized in the accessibility of powerful personal computers and the Internet, have brought fast online trading and powerful market analytical tools to the mainstream. Low, affordable commissions from discount brokers as well as regulation improvements in favor of retail traders have also helped level the trading playing field, making success as a retail trader a possibility for many and a reality for some. Auto traders auto-trade, which stands for automated trading and the use of computer programs and other tools to enter trading orders. Because this all happens with the help of the computer algorithm it is also called algorithmic trading.[2]
Day Trader (2) @wikipedia •
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Day traders' objective is to make profits by taking advantage of small price movements in highly liquid stocks or indexes as well. According to Adam Leitzes and Josh Solan (Bulls, Bears and Brains: Investing With the Best and Brightest of the Financial Internet), the more volatile the market, the more favorable the conditions for the day trader, regardless of the longer-term direction of the trend in the market. Unlike some fund managers and investors, who hold positions over longer periods of time and are averse to selling equities short, the day trader is not committed to a position and can adapt himself to whatever condition the market is in at any given moment.[3] A day trader who wants to achieve success needs appropriate knowledge, equipment, tools and markets together with the ability to trade the right electronic trading platform. A day trader with the right information might be able to succeed, otherwise, success will go to the other person in the transaction or to the broker, if he happens to be the best informed person in the transaction. Also, a successful day trader needs to know which stocks to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to get out of the trade. Part of this knowledge is to find those stocks with liquidity and volatility, in order to generate profits.[4]
Previously seen as a niche market, or something for institutional speculators, the foreign exchange market (forex) by 2010 had increased exponentially to an average daily volume of about US$4 trillion worldwide,[5] with spot retail forex trades accounting for an estimated 10% of that volume. Possible reasons for the surge in retail forex trading is the now high margin requirements[6] in individual U.S. equities (stocks) for day traders imposed after 2001 and apparent overt manipulation of commodities markets[7] making the 'rigged' commodity futures markets a less desirable or 'fair' market in which to participate. However exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have gained rapidly in popularity, being seen as a less expensive way to trade all futures markets as well as some more exotic markets not otherwise available to retail day traders. The amount of margin required by most retail forex brokers in contrast is negligible. With full size lots (100,000 units of currency), mini-lots (10,000) and even micro-lots (1,000) all with up to as much as 1000:1 leverage being available (although not in the US where the maximum is now 50:1 after a ruling by the CFTC), means a retail day trader could in theory trade a single micro-lot of USD for the cost of $1. Realistically most brokers require a minimum deposit of $500. The sheer volume of the forex market makes it a difficult one to manipulate in any meaningful way, even with the money available to large proprietary and institutional trading interests.
Scalper • Scalping was originally referred to as spread trading. Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spread are exploited by the speculator. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds. • Scalping highly liquid instruments for off-the-floor day traders involves taking quick profits while minimizing risk (loss exposure). It applies technical analysis concepts such as over/under-bought, support and resistance zones as well as trendline, trading channel to enter the market at key points and take quick profits from small moves. The basic idea of scalping is to exploit the inefficiency of the market when volatility increases and the trading range expands.
Fakta-Fakta • Market Bullish / Naik itu cocok utk Investasi • Market Bearish cocok utk Short Seller • Market Sideways cocok utk Day Trader Dengan acuan +0.5% Bullish, -0.5% Bearish, selain itu Sideways
• Tahun 2013
SideWays Bullish Bearish 74 60 53
• Tahun 2012
SideWays Bullish Bearish 127 65 52
Day Trader @ TF September 2013 Date 130902 130903 130904 130905 130906 130909 130910 130911 130912 130913 130916 130917 130918 130919 130920 130923 130924 130925 130926 130927 130930
Cross Trade 13.721.643.000 8.036.201.000 10.322.089.000 15.572.687.000 7.970.434.000 18.703.073.000 38.401.898.000 11.413.206.000 16.855.608.000 12.555.199.000 20.077.801.000 35.289.366.000 24.037.856.000 48.713.769.800 10.771.755.000 10.263.307.000 9.383.374.000 11.502.594.000 12.862.125.000 13.069.645.100 9.154.199.000
All 25.021.843.500 36.468.134.500 17.116.715.500 32.435.763.650 19.433.730.000 33.955.511.000 67.622.762.490 31.944.710.000 36.116.969.500 37.231.332.000 45.936.018.500 60.396.845.000 41.006.454.000 92.277.379.400 31.912.970.000 22.169.530.000 37.821.667.500 33.739.964.500 35.839.633.400 30.685.537.450 24.349.791.000
RG Cross vs All Cross vs RG 24.981.279.500 54,84% 54,93% 18.465.189.500 22,04% 43,52% 17.116.715.500 60,30% 60,30% 25.424.263.500 48,01% 61,25% 19.417.430.000 41,01% 41,05% 33.591.511.000 55,08% 55,68% 50.627.323.500 56,79% 75,85% 28.561.390.000 35,73% 39,96% 36.071.651.500 46,67% 46,73% 37.231.332.000 33,72% 33,72% 45.929.518.500 43,71% 43,71% 60.334.152.000 58,43% 58,49% 40.988.454.000 58,62% 58,65% 72.398.818.000 52,79% 67,29% 31.912.970.000 33,75% 33,75% 22.128.630.000 46,29% 46,38% 33.488.395.500 24,81% 28,02% 33.739.964.500 34,09% 34,09% 22.246.405.500 35,89% 57,82% 24.830.486.500 42,59% 52,64% 24.347.291.000 37,59% 37,60%
43,94% 49,12%
Pertanyaan • Apakah Regulator dan Otoritas masih Membutuhkan Keberadaan Day Trader dan/atau Scalper yang dikenal sebagai Trading for Living ?? • Bentuk Transaksi mereka sangat menguntungkan bagi Sekuritas saat ini, Mengapa ?? Frekuensi Transaksi yang sangat Tinggi • Menguntungkan bagi Sekuritas bukankah menguntungkan bagi Industri dalam hal ini SRO dan Otoritas ??
Sekelumit terkait Perubahan Fraksi Harga Saham •
TF sejauh ini memiliki komposisi Transaksi Day Trade yang cukup besar, Apakah tidak berisiko bagi Anggota Bursa seperti kami apabila terjadi perubahan Fraksi Harga ?
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Alasan mendesak apakah yang membuat perubahan fraksi harus dilakukan sekarang ??
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Apakah Filosofi diatas yang diungkapkan oleh John Schroy sudah masuk dalam analisa dalam pembentukan fraksi baru ??
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Apakah “Redenominasi” sudah dimasukan dalam analisa pembentukan fraksi baru ??
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Dalam kondisi infrastruktur Pasar Modal yang masih adanya kendala berkaitan dengan “pemadaman bergilir”, apakah implementasi ini harus dilaksanakan segera ??
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Apakah sudah mempertimbangkan dampak pada teknologi informasi pada Bursa Efek Indonesia, Anggota Bursa, dan Investor ?? * Bursa Efek Indonesia, sudahkah melakukan pengujian stress test pada pemanfaatan memory pada pembentukan harga ? Siapkah dengan Redenominasi ? * Anggota Bursa, sudahkah melakukan pengujian stress test pada pemanfaatan memory pada pembentukan orderbook ? Apakah akan memerlukan banyak investasi perangkat keras dan update perangkat lunak tambahan ? * Investor, sudahkah melakukan analisa apakah investor akan memerlukan peningkatan perangkat keras pada komputernya dikarenakan perubahan fraksi diatas ?
Filosofi Fraksi Harga oleh John Schroy Diingatkan kembali oleh Dr Edison Hulu
Naik satu tangga harga artinya naik pula nilai harta Investor setelah dipotong biaya-biaya, dan peningkatan nilai harta Investor haruslah dirasa adil berbanding dengan biayanya.
ANALISA PERBANDINGAN Fraksi Saham dan Produk di Transaksikan di Papan Sejenis di IDX Sekarang Vs
IDX Direncanakan Vs
Singapore Stock Exchange Vs
Bursa Malaysia
Table Potensial Profit Transaksi pada 1 Fraksi IDX Saat Ini (1) Potential
Potential
Fraksi 5
Fraksi 1 2.50%
1.60% 1.40%
2.00%
1.20% 1.50%
1.00% 0.80%
Potential
0.60% 0.40%
Potential
1.00% 0.50%
0.20% 0.00%
0.00% 0
50
100
150
200
0
250
100
200
300
400
500
Potential
Potential
Fraksi 10
Fraksi 25
1.60%
0.80%
1.40%
0.70%
1.20%
0.60%
1.00%
0.50%
0.80%
Potential
0.60%
600
0.40%
Potential
0.30%
0.40%
0.20%
0.20%
0.10%
0.00% 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.00% 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Table Potensial Profit Transaksi pada 1 Fraksi IDX Saat Ini (2)
Potential Fraksi 50 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% Potential 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 0 -0.10%
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Table Potensial Profit Transaksi pada 1 Fraksi IDX Direncanakan Potential
Potential
Fraksi 5
Fraksi 1 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% 1.00% 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% -0.20% 0 -0.40%
Potential
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% -0.10% 0 -0.20% -0.30% -0.40% -0.50%
Potential 1000
2000
3000
Potential Fraksi 10 0.00% -0.05% 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
-0.10% -0.15% -0.20% -0.25% -0.30% -0.35% -0.40% -0.45%
Potential
4000
5000
6000
Table Potensial Profit Transaksi pada 1 Fraksi SGX Potential
Potential
Fraksi 0.1cent
Fraksi 0.5cent
1.60% 2.50%
1.40% 1.20%
2.00%
1.00%
1.50%
0.80%
Potential 1.00%
0.60% 0.40%
0.50%
0.20%
0.00% 0.000 -0.50%
0.00% 0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
Potential
0.500
1.000
1.500
Potential Fraksi 1cent 0.00% 0.000 -0.05%
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
-0.10% -0.15% Potential -0.20% -0.25% -0.30% -0.35%
2.000
2.500
Table Potensial Profit Transaksi pada 1 Fraksi Bursa Malaysia 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.000
Potential
Potential
Fraksi 0.5cent
Fraksi 1cent 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% Potential
0.00% 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 -0.20% -0.40%
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
-0.60%
Potential
Potential
Fraksi 2cent 0.00% 0.000 -0.10%
Potential
20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
Fraksi 10cent 0.00% 0.000 100.000200.000300.000400.000500.000600.000 -0.10%
-0.20%
-0.20%
-0.30%
Potential -0.30%
-0.40%
-0.40%
-0.50%
-0.50%
-0.60%
-0.60%
Potential
Perbandingan Jumlah Investor Jumlah Rakyat Berbanding Jumlah Investor
Negara
Rakyat
Investor
(%)
Indonesia
246,000,000
400,000
0.16%
Singapore
5,312,400
1,593,720
30.00%
Malaysia
29,400,000
5,880,000
20.00%
Perbandingan Fraksi IDX Sekarang vs Direncanakan terhadap Filosofi John Schrooy (1) Fraksi IDX Saat Ini dengan Pendekatan Transaksi 9 Oktober 2013 < 200 200 - < 500 500 - < 2000 Total Stocks 150 118 147 Stocks Alloc 28.09% 22.10% 27.53% Tick to Gain 1 1 1 Trade Alloc 1.94% 12.08% 32.60% Jumlah Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Alokasi Transaksi Saham ikut Filosofi John Schrooy
480 89.89% 63.87%
2000 - < 5000 65 12.17% 1 17.25%
> 5000 54 10.11% 2 36.13%
Perbandingan Fraksi IDX Sekarang vs Direncanakan terhadap Filosofi John Schrooy (2) Fraksi IDX Direncanakan dengan Pendekatan Transaksi 9 Oktober 2013 < 200 200 - < 500 500 - < 2000 Total Stocks 150 118 91 Stocks Alloc 28.09% 22.10% 17.04% Tick to Gain 1 3 1 Trade Alloc 1.94% 12.08% 11.05% Jumlah Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Alokasi Transaksi Saham ikut Filosofi John Schrooy
241 45.13% 12.98%
1000 - < 2000 56 10.49% 5 21.56%
2000 - < 5000 65 12.17% 5 17.25%
> 5000 54 10.11% 5 36.13%
Fraksi SGX terhadap Filosofi John Schrooy Fraksi SGX dengan Pendekatan Transaksi 9 Oktober 2013 <0.2$ 0.2 - < 1 Total Stocks 708 309 Stocks Alloc 53.35% 23.29% Tick to Gain 1 1 Trade Alloc 13.58% 28.45% Jumlah Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Alokasi Transaksi Saham ikut Filosofi John Schrooy
1- <2 97 7.31% 2 15.27%
1,017 76.64% 42.03%
2 - < 10 95 7.16% 3 24.36%
>= 10 118 8.89% 5 18.34%
Fraksi Bursa Malaysia terhadap Filosofi John Schrooy Fraksi Bursa Malaysia dengan Pendekatan Transaksi 9 Oktober 2013 <1 1- <2 2 - < 10 Total Stocks 1,391 204 204 Stocks Alloc 76.09% 11.16% 11.16% Tick to Gain 1 1 5 Trade Alloc 28.17% 10.53% 53.52% Jumlah Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Saham yang mengikuti Filosofi John Schrooy % Alokasi Transaksi Saham ikut Filosofi John Schrooy
1,595 87.25% 38.70%
10 - < 100 29 1.59% 4 7.78%
>100 0 0.00% 4 0.00%
KESIMPULAN • Ada kecenderungan bahwa pada model BEI yang baru (fraksi harga), besar kemungkinan terjadi berkurangnya likuiditas pasar pada jenjang perdagangan satu fraksi (day trading). • Negara-negara tetangga masih lebih unggul dalam memberi peluang day trading dibandingkan dengan model BEI yang baru. • Model BEI yang lama, kalaupun diubah fraksi, diusulkan memperhatikan keunggulan dalam memberi peluang day trading sebagai pemicu likuiditas. Misalnya, pada harga 200-500 dipertimbangkan bukan 1 fraksi tetapi 2.
