Welkom Track Renewal & Maintenance Cost Optimization Congress 2012 London, November 20st & 21st 2012
Risk Based Maintenance The way to connect Costs & Performance and share Maintenance & Renewal information Jan Swier, ProRail AM, email:
[email protected]. Tel. +31 88 231 2218 Version: v07
n 17 februari 2011
Content of the presentation • Changes in AM • What connects Cost & Performance • Risk management • Implementation • Lessons learned / advice
2
The origin of ProRail NS 27000
A young company with a long history
Fe Mw
Holland Railconsult NS Engineering
EpOd
(Now MOVARIS)
Discharge
Seperation Trains and Track
600
1000
Ep
100% outsourcing of engineering
Strukton Volker Stevin BAM/NBM
Execution of 3700
NS If: Maintenance
< 1990
(NS InfraService)
NS Capacity mngt NS Traffic Control
2800
If 1500
Maintenance
Management 4200
1990 Concentrating rail infra management tasks
100% outsourcing of maintenance
NS RIB
of maintenance (NS RIB)
800
1994 Outsourcing engineering and restructuring maintenance
1995 Separation: birth of the institutional triangle
1998 Outsourcing of Maintenance
ProRail ProRail (Ltd) 3200
2003 New Railway act and merger of three agencies
2005 First Infra Management Concession
3
ProRail is a pure Asset Manager, indissoluble connected with the Owner and Users in an institutional triangle (Regional) Government
Passengers & shippers
Competition Authority Transport Safety Board
Operators
ProRail Access Charges
Contractors, Engineering, Agencies,…. 4
The world of Asset Managers has changed Performance contracts Access charges Less money but better performance Separation “Trains” and “Track” Outsourcing
More trains, less effective time Lack of working information Backlog in Renewals
5
Demands and expectations has grown What are the costs of performance?
Improve punctuality on line A-B !
Why is maintenance so expensive?
Create more capacity and reduce costs
Decrease the Life Cycle Costs with -20%
No more problems in winter !
Asset Manager 6
The essence how to deal with these changes and questions: Ø Know the relation between M&R Costs and Performance Ø Know how to manage this relation Challenge: Introduce a systematic approach to link M&R activities to performance
M&R = Maintenance & Renewal
7
The relation between Costs and Performance is laid down How to connect Costs & Performance? through Activities, Conditions and dedicated instruments
Conditions
• Network configuration • Quantities • Utilization • Legislation • Effective work time • Day/Nigh weekend work • …………
‘ Modelling
Costs
??
Information
Performance
• Capacity • Functionality • RAMSHE quality • Technical quality
Mngt. Instruments
Activities
• Maintenance • Renewal • Inspections • Measurements • Modifications • .........
8
Risk meet all requirements for an What Management instrument connects Costs & Performance? instrument to connect Costs & Performance EAM
(Enterprise Asset Management)
PAS 55 RBI
(Risk Based Inspection)
RCA
Risk Management
(Root Cause Analysis)
RCM
(Reliability Centred Maintenance)
Optimizer+ LCCM
(Life Cycle Cost Management)
9
Risk Management: multi types but one method Multi types of Risk Management: • Strategic risks • Institutional or political • Social or environmental • Technological • Merge or take over • Juridical • ………..
• Operational risks • Technology or Production • Organization • Market • Personal • Performance • …………….
• Financial risks • Interest, Credit, currency rate • Liquidity, cash flow • Budget and costs • …………….
One Method: Ø Ø Ø Ø
Failure Mode & Effects Criticality analysis Strategy Risk control activities
Risk scope of an Asset Manager: Performance and M&R Costs
• Calamity risks • Nature • Contracts • Environment • Suppliers • …………..
10
Operation phase
Design & Build phase
Principle of Risk Management * Set targets for Cost & Performance * Design solution * Identify threats, probability and effects * Calculate/evaluate risk (= Risk Analysis)
Fail falen fail
* Develop Maintenance Concept to control risk * Realize project * Measure realization Cost & Performance * Evaluate realization * Improve RA & MC if necessary or ….
Fail Fail Fail Fail Control Fail Risk Risk Risk
* Modify if possible and attractive
RA = Risk Analysis MC = Maintenance Concept C&P = Cost & Performance
Fail Fail
Fail Fail Fail
Detection 11
M&R is necessary to control risk (value) Business TARGETS VAN ProRail BEDRIJFSWAARDEN PRORAIL
CHANCE (MTBF) KANSRISK (in frequentie van optreden per jaar)
RISK IMPACT (MTTR + Seriousness)
Image/ En- Costs Avail- Clean Social Access Safety Surrounviron- (financial ability stations Security stations ding stations ment damage) infra None to very smal/ 0
Small/ 1 Limited/ 10
Considerable/ 100 Large/ 1.000 Very Large/ 10.000
geen negatieve aandacht in de pers
geen letsel of schade aan de gezondheid
negatieve aandacht in de plaatselijke pers
licht gewonde
negatieve aandacht in de regionale pers, zorg bij lokale overheid, vergunning bedreigd
licht gewonde + verzuim
geen impact op milieu, geen overschrijdingen norm
geen kosten
geen effect op de beschikbaarheid
beperkte gevolgen gering effect op de voor het milieu, beschikbaarheid, lokaal en binnen Zv-Ww ged. 1 uur 1k € < kosten < € beheergebied, versperd of Ut - Ht 10 k beperkte en ged. 2 uur max. 5 kortdurende minuten vertraging overschrijding normen gevolgen voor middelgroot effect milieu lokaal, op de bodembeschikbaarheid, verontreiniging die € 10 k < kosten Zv-Ww ged. 4 uur < € 100 k sanering behoeft, versperd of Ut - Ht beperkte overged. 2 uur schrijding normen, versperd tot 10 klachten grootschalige groot effect op de verontreiniging beschikbaarheid, van oa. bodem en Ut-Ht ged. 4 uur opp.-/grondwater, € 100 k < kosten versperd of langdurige over< € 1 mio knooppunt schrijding normen, Gouda/Moordrecht meer dan 10 aansluiting 2 uur klachten versperd. ernstige milieuernstig effect op schade, de ingrijpende beschikbaarheid, € 1 mio < kosten < knoop Gd/Mda herstellende € 10 mio maatregelen ged. 4 uur nodig, langdurige versperd of VL impact /hinder Amr ged. 2 uur voor omwoverstoord. zeer ernstig effect milieuramp met op de (mogelijk) beschikbaarheid, blijvende schade, kosten > € 10 mio VL Amr ged. 4 uur impact/hinder voor verstoord, of VL Ut de hele regio (> ged. 2 uur 50 km) verstoord.
zwaargewonde
negatieve aandacht in de nat. pers, vermeldingen in internat. pers, zorg bij nat. overheid en/of div. stakeholders
dode en/of zwaargewonde
langdurige negatieve aandacht in de (inter)nationale pers, zorg bij overheid en div. stakeholders; bedreiging voor concessie
meerdere doden en/of meerdere zwaargewonde
B. onwaar- C. waarUnlikly Probaschijnlijk, schijnlijk, bly 0,01 x / jr 0,1 x / jr 1*100 0,1*1 (1x per (1x per 10 yrs = yrs = 100 jaar) jaar) 0,01 0,1
D. E. IncidenRegular incidenteel, regelmatig, tial. jaarlijks, maandeYearly Monthly 1 x yr per=jr lijks, 1*1 1*1 yr = 10 x per jr
1
F. zeer Very regelmatig, regular dagelijks, Daily 100 x per jr
10
100*1yr 100
1000
10000
geen effect op de reinheid
geen gevoel van onbehagen
geen effect op de toegankelijkheid
matig effect op de reinheid, transferruimte is vervuild
enig gevoel van onbehagen
enig effect op de toegankelijkheid: station is toegankelijk, maar mindervaliden hebben moeite om bij de trein te komen
groot effect op de reinheid, transferruimte is vervuild
matig gevoel van onbehagen, reizigers voelen zich niet veilig
matig effect op de toegankelijkheid: station is toegankelijk, maar mindervaliden hebben moeite om bij de trein te komen
ernstig effect op de reinheid (met effect op de soc. veiligheid), transferruimte is ernstig vervuild
groot effect op de aanzienlijk gevoel toegankelijkheid: van onbehagen, station is toegankelijk, situatie leidt tot mindervaliden kunnen vandalisme en niet zelfstandig bij de criminaliteit trein komen
0,1
1
10
100
x
ernstig effect op de ernstig gevoel van toegankelijkheid: onbehagen, station is toegankelijk, situatie leidt tot mindervaliden kunnen gevaar voor niet bij de trein komen mensen of raken (risicolocatie) gewond/overlijden
1
10
100
1000
10
100
1000
10000 100000 1000000
Qualitative description of RISK IMPACT per TARGET
korte negatieve aandacht in de nat. pers, zorg bij prov. overheid of een stakeholder, vergunning ingetrokken
A. zeer Very onwaarunlikly schijnlijk 1*1000 0,001 x / jr yrs = (1x per 0,001 1000 jaar)
x
x
x
10000 100000
Risk (value) = Impact * Chance MTTR + Mean Time To repair MTBF = Mean Time Between Failure M&R = Maintenance & Renewal
12
RA & MC is an indispensable instrument to manage Costs & Performance explicitly and in coherence TODAY:
System/ Object
also explicit, shared maintenance knowledge
In the PAST: implicit, personal maintenance knowledge
Maintenance Concept
Risk Analysis (or FMECA)
Failure Mode
FMECA = Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis RA & MC = Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept RAMS = Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety
Cause Chance & Effect Risk value & Maintenance strategy
Inspection + Spec
Preventive activity Repair activity In Control of (RAMS) Performance & Costs of the System/Object
13
The implementation of RA&MC’s within ProRail is prioritized with the help of failures (= risk chance)
1 6 3 4 5 2
RA&MC = Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept
14
Example of, risk based, changes in the maintenance concept of a level crossing Less activities Lower frequencies Maintenance activities Static traffic signs beacons, andreas crosses, etc Clean light lenses external Level crossing gate motor: • Measuring motor isolation • Check clearance motor axle and bearings • Test AKR • Test gate motor • Test balance and torque • Inspect switch pegs • Inspect gear wheels • Renew grease wheel • Measure motor current irt torque • Measure diode K1 Dynamic traffic signs • Check functioning of light signals • Inspect background panel + sun cover Inspect battery charger Inspect connection batteries Quality- and Safety inspections
Traditional ½ year ½ year
Risk based 1 year 1,5 year
1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year 1 year ½ jaar ½ jaar 1 jaar ½ jaar 1 jaar
Cancelled Cancelled Check Cancelled At installation 12 year 12 year 2 year 3 year 3 year
Not Not ½ year ½ Year 1 year
• Lower M-costs • Same RAMS-performance
Einde
1 year 1,5 year Failure induced Failure induced Cancelled
15
Use of risk management tools depends of the role and task of a user A professional Maintenance Contractor has build in his Work Order System all his Maintenance Knowledge and Information to control the RAMSrisks in the best and most economic way
An Asset Manager like ProRail use the RA&MCtool to structure, secure & share all Maintenance Knowledge and Information in order to control and optimize LC-Cost & RAMS-Performance.
LCC = Life Cycle Cost RA & MC = Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept RAMS = Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety
16
Risk management becomes an indispensable tool in our asset management process
Bart Smolders, Director ProRail AM
Members of the Management Team, ProRail AM (2010)
“System Asset Management (SAM), the core process of ProRail AM, uses risk management to identify the necessary activities in their cohesion and makes the relations transparent between costs and performance”
17
Risk management is a new language which connect processes, people, information, costs & performance Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept
Act Act
Plan
Know all system risks and how to control them
Know the quality and plan the Target: ProRail manage the activities to control risk assets through an efficient and stable Check priceperformance process, and realize a provable optimal and adjust Price-Performance strategy ratio of all Execute all systems necessary Know realization, compare with RA*MC and identify improvements
activities
Do
Check SAM = System Asset Management AM = Asset Management RA&MC = Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept
18
Lessons learned / advice • Risk management connect costs and performance • It connect, structure and uncover AM-knowledge & info • It connect people as a common language • It is a profession and needs (some) specialists • It is not possible without: • • • •
ICT Failure & cause registration Specifications, Measurements and Utilization info Dedicated tools like: • •
Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concepts (FMECA) Risk matrix
• It effects the whole AM-organization • No implementation without commitment
19
Our ambition: the best infra manager in Europe and leading in the World
20
RA&MC is a strong Information format to secure knowledge and relate information IH-specs Regelgeving Storingsregistratie Source: realization Source: Failure registration
RCB
TESI-lijst / units
2 3 4 5
6
Effect op Imago
Effect op Veiligheid
Maintenance Concept Onderhoudconcept spoorstaaf Effect Effect op op kosten Beschik(€) baarheid
Beheersmaatregel; meten / inspecteren
1000 vanw ege kans op doden en lange storingsduur
40
TAO
spoorstaaf visueel inspecteren bij openen overw egen
1000 vanw ege kans op doden en lange storingsduur
20
Interval Vervolgactie Kosten (jaar) bij TAO / meten / meten/ GAO / FT inspec-‐ inspecteren teren
Kosten Norm bij vervolg-‐ TAO (IH-spec) actie
Correctieve actie in geval van onvoldoende onderhoud
Unit code
Kans op ongewenste gebeurtenis
Unit code
Onge- Standwenste tijd gebeur- (jaren) tenis
Unit code
Conditie v/d fout
IH-strategie
1
Faaloorz aak
Risicogetal
Regelnr
Risk analysis rail Risico analyse spoorstaaf Onderdeel
Kosten Opmerkingen/ correc-‐ regelgeving tieve actie
Te bes chouwen objec t: Spoor (constr uc tie ) Functie 1 he t dra ge n en geleide n va n ra ilvoe rtuigen Functie 2 he t late n aa nze tten e n r em me n van r ailvoer tuige n Functie 3 he t e le ktr is ch geleide n va n re tours trome n EV Functie 4 he t e le ktr is ch geleide n va n be veiligingss trome n Functie 1 he t dra ge n en geleide n va n ra ilvoe rtuigen Faa lvorm 1 .1 het niet dr agen e n geleide n van r ailvoer tuige n Spoorstaaf bij spoorstaaf spoorstaafvoet ontsporing 10 jr bij overw egen + gebroken (of en/of ziel (deels) trein (in een overw egen, ingegoten spoorafstand te w eggecorrodeer boog, 50 jr bij spoorstaven of groot) d (corrosie) nagenoeg overige spoorstaafcons niet in recht tructie spoor) Spoorconstructi e als geheel bij krappe bogen en w issels (R<500m)
geometrie slijtage spoorcie voldoet spoorstaafvoet niet, spoorafstand te groot
ontsporing 10 jr trein (in een boog, nagenoeg niet in recht spoor)
Failure mode/cause
1x per 50 jaar 1. negatieve landelijk aandacht in lokale pers
1x per 10 jaar 1. negatieve landelijk aandacht in lokale pers
1000. doden/ zw gew
1000. doden/ zw gew
1. 10.000 €
1. 10.000 €
TAO
Performance effects
4 jr, zie w erkblad 'Inspectie bij openen overw egen'
spoorstaaf vervangen/ vernieuw en
Zie w erkblad 'Vervangen/vernieu w en' en 'passtuk 2 jr (krappe bogen) spoorstaaf vervangen
sp oo rstaa fvoe t vi su ee l in sp ectere n op s li jtag e
€
BW: restant voetdikte 50% VW: restant voetdikte 30%
spoorstaaf vervangen/ vernieuw en/passtuk plaatsen
RLN00036 RLN00063 RLN00127
BW: restant voetdikte 50% VW: restant voetdikte 30%
spoorstaaf vervangen/ vernieuw en/passtuk plaatsen
RLN00036 RLN00063 RLN00127
€
Risicomatrix Relation between Performance (risk) and Costs
€
It took more than 10 years to implement Risk Management within ProRail AM Today
Start Outsourcing Maintenance
1995
1997 1998
First risk analysis to choose the right specs in the first M-contract
SAM = System Asset Management M = Maintenance MT AM = Management Team Asset Mngt. RA&MC = Risk Analysis & Maintenance Concept
2000
Introduction of a Risk Mngt. tool for lines (instead of objects)
First performance based M-contract 2008
2005
Integration of M-specs and M-Concepts in M-Contracts
2010
2012
2015
Project proposal (“SAM”) to implement Risk Mngt. as a core technique/skill in the AM process of ProRail
Fundamental mistakes: • insufficient data • incomplete tools • too high expectations
Fundamental mistake: • intolerable mix of Specifications and Risk instruments
Favorable conditions: • Target to improve Performance and decrease Costs • Successful development and use of a few, detailed RA & MC
MT AM looses interest
Frustrated colleagues
Commitment MT AM and colleagues 22
