SPECIAL REPORT
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October 2013
2013 : Another Crisis in the Making?
q In the recent past, Indonesia has experienced two economic crises: the first in 1998 and the second in 2008. As a result of these crises - which severely impacted economic activities within the country - the government has become more cautious in its policymaking. In 2013, Indonesia’s economy was again hit by several shocks. The rupiah declined precipitously and stock prices tumbled. The JCI even dropped below the 4,000 level for a time. These developments have heightened fears that Indonesia is facing another economic crisis in the near term. But are these concerns really justified? q Indonesia sudah mengalami dua kali krisis ekonomi yaitu di tahun 1998 dan di tahun 2008. Krisis tersebut telah menimbulkan guncangan besar bagi perekonomian Indonesia pada saat itu sehingga membuat pemerintah semakin berhati-hati dalam mengambil kebijakan. Pada tahun 2013 ini, guncangan kembali melanda perekonomian nasional. Nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami pelemahan yang cukup tajam. Begitu pula pasar saham juga mengalami penurunan yang signifikan. IHSG bahkan sempat menembus di bawah level 4,000. Hal ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa krisis ekonomi akan terjadi dalam waktu dekat ini. Apakah kekhawatiran ini benar akan terjadi?
ASTI SUWARNI Analyst (62-21) 3509777 ext 3608
[email protected]
PRAMAYANTI MEITISARI Analyst (62-21) 3509777 ext 3607
[email protected]
DARWIN SITORUS Economist (62-21) 3509777 ext 3603
[email protected]
www.danareksa-research.com
q To gauge whether another economic crisis is likely in Indonesia in the near term, it is useful to look at several important indicators that provide insights into the economic crises in 1998 and 2008. In this report, we analyzed twelve important indicators and based on those variables, we still believe that the Indonesian economy is still in an expansionary phase but with slowing growth. Most indicators do not signal the likelihood of economic recession in the near term. Hence, the risk of Indonesia entering a recession in the near term is relatively small. q Untuk dapat menjawab kekhawatiran apakah memang krisis ekonomi akan terjadi kembali dalam waktu dekat ini, ada beberapa indikator penting yang perlu diperhatikan dari kedua krisis ekonomi tersebut. Dalam tulisan ini, kami menganalisa 12 indikator penting dan berdasarkan variabel tersebut, kami mengambil kesimpulan bahwa ekonomi Indonesia masih dalam masa ekspansi namun pertumbuhannya melambat. Sebagian besar indikator tersebut tidak memberikan sinyal kemungkinan resesi ekonomi dalam jangka pendek ini. Dengan demikian, resiko Indonesia kembali memasuki resesi dalam waktu dekat ini masih relatif kecil.
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Krisis ekonomi tahun 1998 antara lain dipicu oleh kebijakan nilai tukar mengambang terkendali, dimana dengan sistem ini depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah dijaga pada level sekitar 5% per tahun. Di sisi lain, laju inflasi kita yang hampir selalu double digit jauh di atas inflasi yang terjadi di Amerika. Akibatnya secara fundamental, R u p i a h m e n g a l a m i overvalued. N i l a i R u p i a h y a n g overvalued ini sangat rentan terhadap serangan dan permainan spekulan karena tidak mencerminkan nilai tukar fundamentalnya.
If we look back at the economic crisis in 1998, it is apparent - in hindsight - that the controlled floating exchange rate policy (which allowed the rupiah to depreciate by around 5% each year) played a part in the crisis. Inflation was in double digits – or far above the inflation rate in the United States. As a result, the rupiah had become fundamentally overvalued leaving it vulnerable to attacks from speculators.
Disamping itu, Indonesia memiliki akumulasi utang luar negeri swasta yang telah mencapai jumlah yang sangat besar sejak awal tahun 1990-an sehingga nilai tukar Rupiah mendapat tekanan yang berat karena tidak tersedia cukup devisa untuk membayar utang yang jatuh tempo beserta bunganya ditambah sistem perbankan nasional yang lemah. Keadaan ini diperparah oleh krisis moneter regional yang berawal dari Thailand dan kemudian menyebar ke negara Asia lainnya termasuk Indonesia.
Furthermore, Indonesia had accumulated large private sector foreign debts since the early 1990s. As a result, the rupiah came under strong selling pressure since there was not enough foreign exchange to repay maturing debts and make interest payments. In addition, the national banking system was built on shaky foundations. Hence, when the regional financial crisis spread to Indonesia the effects were devastating.
Krisis ekonomi tahun 2008 dimulai dari macetnya kredit perumahan (subprime mortgage default) di Amerika Serikat (AS) yang mengakibatkan lembaga-lembaga keuangan besar yang memiliki asset default mengalami kesulitan likuiditas. Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merril Lynch mengalami kesulitan likuiditas, bahkan Lehman Brothers menyatakan dirinya bangkrut. Masalah likuditas lembaga-lembaga keuangan yang diikuti dengan aksi jual menimbulkan kejatuhan harga saham di AS dan global, termasuk Indonesia.
The 2008 economic crisis, by comparison, has its roots in the housing loans (sub-prime mortgages) defaults in the United States which, in turn, created liquidity problems for a number of major financial institutions. Bear Stearns, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch all experienced liquidity problems and Lehman Brothers suffered the ultimate humiliation of bankruptcy. The liquidity problems faced by financial institutions, which were accompanied by stock sell-offs, caused stock prices to plummet in the US and in other countries, including Indonesia.
Di Indonesia, disamping aksi jual saham, arus keluar dana asing dari Surat Utang Negara (SUN), maupun Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) juga mengalami peningkatan (capital flight ). Bersamaan dengan terjadinya capital flight , nilai tukar Rupiah turut terdepresiasi. Puncak pelemahan Rupiah terjadi pada 24 November menjadi Rp 12.650 per USD, atau terdepresiasi 38 persen selama tiga bulan. Pada kuartal II tahun 2008, neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia mengalami defisit, yang mencapai US$1 miliar atau 0,77 persen terhadap PDB. Cadangan Devisa mengalami penurunan 13% dalam 2 triwulan, yaitu dari US$59,45 miliar menjadi US$51.64 miliar per Desember 2008. Dalam krisis keuangan 2008, aksi jual yang dilakukan lembaga-lembaga keuangan
In addition to the stock market sell-off in Indonesia, foreign investors also dumped Government Securities (SUN) and Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI). Because of this capital flight, the rupiah came under pressure. The rupiah’s low point was reached on November 24 when it traded at Rp12,650/US$, or recording 38% depreciation in just three months. In the second quarter of 2008, the deficit in Indonesia’s current account reached US$ 1 billion or 0.77 percent of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves fell 13% within two quarters, from US$59.45 billion to US$ 51.64 billion as of December 2008. Stocks were sold off globally by many financial institutions, leading to sharp declines in share prices in many countries, including Indonesia. The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) was forced
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menyebabkan kejatuhan harga saham-saham di sejumlah negara termasuk Indonesia. Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) terpaksa harus melakukan penutupan pada tanggal 8-10 Oktober 2008 karena IHSG turun drastis hingga 10,38%. Pada akhir tahun 2008 indeks ditutup pada posisi 1.355,4 atau turun separuhnya dari posisi pada awal tahun.
to close on 8-10 October 2008 as the JCI sank 10.38%. At the end of 2008, the index stood at 1,355.4, or down nearly 50% from its position at the beginning of the year.
Dari kedua krisis ekonomi tersebut, ada beberapa indikator penting yang perlu diperhatikan untuk dapat menjawab kekhawatiran apakah memang krisis ekonomi akan terjadi kembali dalam waktu dekat ini. Berikut ini pembahasan beberapa indikator penting pemicu krisis ekonomi pada tahun 1998 dan 2008:
To gauge whether another economic crisis is likely in Indonesia in the near term, it is useful to look at several important indicators that provide insights into the economic crises in 1998 and 2008:
1. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)
1. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)
Salah satu pemicu krisis di tahun 1998 adalah krisis moneter regional yang berawal dari Thailand. Rupiah dan beberapa mata uang regional lainnnya memang telah mengalami overvalued sebelum tahun 1998. Nilai mata uang yang overvalued ini sangat rentan terhadap serangan dan permainan spekulan karena tidak mencerminkan nilai tukar fundamentalnya. Namun kondisi yang berbeda terjadi di tahun 2008. Beberapa tahun sebelum tahun 2008, Rupiah dan mata uang regional lainnya tidak mengalami overvalued . Rupiah terdepresiasi pada saat itu terutama disebabkan mengalirnya modal ke negara yang dianggap lebih aman (safe haven ) menyusul krisis yang terjadi di Amerika.
The 1998 economic crisis in Indonesia stemmed from the regional financial meltdown that originated in Thailand. It was the case that the rupiah and some other regional currencies were overvalued before 1998. When currencies are overvalued they are understandably extremely vulnerable to attacks by speculators. Yet conditions were different in 2008. In the years prior to 2008, the rupiah and other regional currencies were not overvalued. Rather, the depreciation of the rupiah at that time mainly owed to capital outflows heading into safe haven countries reflecting heightened risk aversion after the crisis broke out in the US.
Sejak pertengahan tahun 2010, Rupiah dan mata uang regional lainnya cenderung bergerak di sekitar nilai fundamentalnya. Sedangkan pada pertengahan tahun 2012, Rupiah justru mengalami depresiasi dan cenderung undervalued . Namun pada saat yang sama, beberapa mata uang regional lainnya mulai mengalami overvalued . Jadi sebenarnya saat ini, Rupiah cenderung bergerak di sekitar nilai fundamentalnya atau bahkan sedikit undervalued , sementara mata uang negara lainnya cenderung overvalued .
Since mid-2010, the rupiah and other regional currencies have more or less hovered around their fundamental values. In mid-2012, the rupiah weakened and tended to be undervalued. At the same time, however, some other regional currencies started to look overvalued. Hence, at the current time, the rupiah looks to be close to its fundamental value (or even slightly undervalued), while other regional currencies look to be overvalued.
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FIGURE 1. REER OF INDONESIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES 140
120
Indonesia
100 Malaysia 80 Philippines 60 Thailand
40
20 1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source : CEIC
2. Rasio Cadangan Devisa terhadap Impor
2. Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Imports
Kebutuhan US Dollar untuk memenuhi kewajiban pembayaran di dalam transaksi dengan pihak asing juga sangat menentukan nilai tukar Rupiah. Salah satu kewajiban tersebut adalah kewajiban dalam pembayaran impor dan juga pembayaran utang luar negeri. Pada tahun 1997, rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor berada pada level sekitar 4 kali. Perlu diingat di sini faktor pembayaran utang luar negeri belum dimasukkan dalam perhitungan karena ketidaktersediaan data. Rasio ini berangsur-angsur membaik sehingga meningkat menjadi 10 kali pada awal tahun 1999. Pada akhir tahun 2007, rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor cenderung menurun hingga mencapai 4,7 kali pada bulan Oktober 2008, namun setelah itu segera membaik kembali. Sedangkan untuk rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri sempat berada di level sekitar 3 kali pada tahun 2008 namun segera membaik kembali pada awal tahun 2009.
US dollar needs to meet payment obligations in relation to transactions with foreign parties also influences the value of the rupiah. US dollars are needed for the payment of imports as well as foreign debt payments. In 1997, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports stood at around 4 times (please note, however, that foreign debt payments are not included in the calculation due to the unavailability of data). This ratio improved gradually and reached around 10 times in early 1999. At the end of 2007, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports started to decline and fell to 4.7 times in October 2008. However, they then subsequently improved again. As for the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports and foreign debt payments, it stood at around 3 times in 2008, but subsequently improved in early 2009.
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FIGURE 2. RATIO OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES TO IMPORTS FOR INDONESIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES 16
Indonesia
14 12
Malaysia
10 Philippines
8 6
Thailand 4 2
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
Indonesia (include foreign debt payment)
Source : CEIC, Bank of Indonesia
Saat ini, rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor masih berada di atas level 6 kali. Dibandingkan dengan rata-rata selama krisis 1998 dan krisis 2008, rasio ini masih relatif cukup tinggi, walaupun tidak setinggi selama periode 1999-2004 yang rata-rata hampir berkisar 9 kali. Sementara itu, rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri berada di sekitar level 3 kali. Kondisi ini mirip dengan yang terjadi di tahun 2008 dimana rasio cadangan devisa terhadap impor dan pembayaran hutang luar negeri juga berada di level sekitar 3 kali. Walaupun demikian, dalam best practice international, level di atas 3 kali masih menunjukkan keadaan yang cukup sehat.
Currently, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports is still more than 6 times. Compared to the average figure during the 1998 crisis and the 2008 crisis, this ratio is still relatively high, though not as high as during the 1999-2004 period when the figure reached 9 times on average. Meanwhile, the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports and foreign debt payments has reached a level of 3 times. This is not unlike the condition in 2008 when the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports and foreign debt payments also stood at around 3 times. Nevertheless, according to international best practices, a ratio above 3 times is still considered the minimum healthy level.
3. Neraca Pembayaran
3. Balance of Payments (BOP)
Salah satu pemicu krisis di tahun 1998 adalah nilai tukar Rupiah yang mengalami overvalued yang cukup besar. Karena itu, beberapa indikator yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar Rupiah harus diperhatikan dengan cermat. Salah satunya adalah neraca pembayaran. Defisit dalam neraca pembayaran berarti outflow U S D o l l a r l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n i n f l o w- n y a , s e h i n g g a d a p a t menimbulkan sentimen negatif terhadap nilai tukar Rupiah. Pada akhir tahun 1997, Indonesia mengalami defisit neraca pembayaran yang dipicu oleh defisit dalam neraca transaksi modal & finansial dan juga defisit dalam neraca transaksi berjalan. Rasio neraca pembayaran terhadap PDB bahkan mencapai -13,4% pada kuartal ke tiga tahun 1998. Pada tahun 2008, Indonesia juga
The significantly overvalued rupiah was a contributing factor to the 1998 crisis. Given this, some indicators which affect the value of the rupiah warrant close attention. One of these indicators is the Balance of Payments. A deficit in the Balance of Payments means that US Dollar outflow is greater than inflow, potentially creating negative sentiment toward the rupiah. At the end of 1997, Indonesia experienced a deficit in its Balance of Payments. This was attributable to a deficit in the capital & financial account and also a deficit in the current account. The ratio of the Balance of Payments to GDP even reached -13.4% in the third quarter of 1998. In 2008, Indonesia’s Balance of Payments deficit owed to a deficit in the capital & financial account, while the
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mengalami defisit neraca pembayaran yang disebabkan current account remained in surplus. The ratio of the oleh defisit dalam neraca transaksi modal & finansial Balance of Payments to GDP reached -0.3% in the fourth sedangkan neraca transaksi berjalan masih mencatat quarter of 2008. surplus. Rasio neraca pembayaran terhadap PDB hanya mencapai -0,3% pada kuartal ke 4 tahun 2008. Keadaan ini jauh lebih baik dibandingkan dengan keadaan di tahun 1998.
FIGURE 3. RATIO OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS TO GDP FOR INDONESIA %GDP 10
0
-5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-10
BOP Total Cur_Account
-15
Cap&Fin_Account
-20
Source : Bank of Indonesia
Pada awal tahun 2012 dan awal tahun 2013, Indonesia mengalami defisit neraca pembayaran kembali, namun kali ini neraca transaksi modal & finansial justru mengalami surplus sedangkan neraca transaksi berjalan mengalami defisit. Pada kuartal ke dua tahun 2012, rasio neraca pembayaran terhadap PDB sempat mencapai -1%. Namun angka ini masih jauh di atas level tahun 1998. Defisit neraca transaksi berjalan pada saat ini terjadi karena ekspor melemah akibat keadaan ekonomi negara mitra dagang yang belum cukup baik sedangkan impor masih cukup kuat dikarenakan pertumbuhan FDI yang masih cukup kuat. Namun keadaan ini diperkirakan bersifat temporer karena impor diperkirakan akan melemah akibat menurunnya aktivitas ekonomi dan ekspor diperkirakan akan meningkat seiring dengan membaiknya kondisi ekonomi negara mitra dagang Indonesia.
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In the beginning of 2012 and in 2013, Indonesia again recorded a deficit in its balance of payments. This time, however, the capital & financial account remained in surplus while the current account experienced a deficit. In the second quarter of 2012, the ratio of the Balance of Payments to GDP had reached -1%. However, this figure was still far better than in 1998. At the present time, the current account deficit is mainly attributable to a weakening in exports stemming from the deterioration of economic conditions in Indonesia’s main trading partners while, at the same time, imports are still quite strong because of firm FDI growth. However, this situation is not expected to be long-lasting since imports will likely weaken due to declining domestic economic activity while, at the same time, exports are expected to increase on the back of global economic recovery.
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4. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG)
4. Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)
Indikator lainnya yang dapat kita cermati adalah indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Indikator ini termasuk leading indicator yang menggambarkan ekspektasi pelaku pasar terhadap keadaan ekonomi di masa mendatang. Dari grafik di bawah dapat dilihat bahwa pada akhir tahun 1997 hingga akhir tahun 1998, IHSG mengalami pertumbuhan negatif bahkan untuk pertumbuhan IHSG dalam US Dollar, yang menunjukkan ekspektasi investor asing di pasar modal, menurun lebih tajam. Begitu pula di pertengahan tahun 2000 sampai 2001 dan akhir tahun 2008 sampai 2009, IHSG mengalami pertumbuhan negatif.
Also worthy of close scrutiny is the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). This indicator can be considered a leading indicator which gauges market players’ expectations of future economic conditions. The graph below shows that from the end of 1997 up to the end of 1998, the growth of the index was firmly entrenched in negative territory. Furthermore, the growth of the index in US dollar terms - which gauges the expectations of foreign investors in the capital market - declined even more precipitously. Likewise, the growth of the index was also in negative territory from mid-2000 to 2001 and at the end of 2008 to 2009.
FIGURE 4. G ROWTH
OF
JCI IN RUPIAH AND US D OLAR TERM
200
150
100
50
0
-50 YoY (Nominal)
-100
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-150
YoY (in USD)
Source : Indonesia Stock Exchange
Pada tahun 2013, pertumbuhan IHSG masih belum terlihat negatif walaupun sudah mendekati nilai 0. Kondisi seperti ini perlu diwaspadai apalagi jika ternyata pertumbuhan IHSG terus menurun hingga mencapai negatif. Untuk itu, pemerintah perlu mengambil kebijakan yang tepat dalam menangani situasi dan kondisi ekonomi pada saat ini untuk mencegah terjadinya krisis ke depannya.
So far in 2013, however, the growth of the JCI has not entered negative territory, although it has approached the value of zero. As such, the latest movements need to be watched closely, especially if the growth of the index does slip into negative territory. To prevent further declines in the JCI and a financial crisis from developing, it is vital that the government implements appropriate policies in the months ahead.
5. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi
5. Economic Growth
Semua negara di dunia memiliki siklus bisnis, dimana ekonomi ada kalanya bertumbuh (ekspansi) dan ada kalanya mengalami kontraksi (resesi). Pada saat ekspansi, pertumbuhan ekonomi biasanya menunjukkan tren meningkat. Sebaliknya, pada saat resesi, pertumbuhan
Each country has its own business cycle, i.e. periods when the economy grows (expansion) and periods when the economy contracts (recession). During times of expansion, economic growth will tend to accelerate. Conversely, during recessions, economic growth slows.
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ekonomi menunjukkan tren yang menurun. Grafik 5 menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi Indonesia cenderung mengalami kepanasan (overheating ) sejak tahun 1995 sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh deviasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup besar dari tren jangka panjangnya. Begitu pula di tahun 2008, ada kecenderungan perekonomian Indonesia kepanasan walaupun tidak seburuk di tahun 1998.
R E P O R T
Graph 5 shows that since 1995 the Indonesian economy has tended to overheat (as indicated by the significant deviation of the actual economic growth pace from its long-term trend). Similarly, in 2008, the Indonesian economy also tended to overheat, although not as much as in 1998.
FIGURE 5. INDONESIA ECONOMIC GROWTH 15 GDP Growth
Long Term Trend
10
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
0
1970
5
-5
-10
-15
Source : The Central Bureau of Statistics
Saat ini, tidak ada indikasi bahwa ekonomi Indonesia sedang mengalami overheating . Hal ini dapat dilihat dari pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang tidak berbeda signifikan dengan tren jangka panjangnya. Bahkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di tahun 2012 masih lebih rendah dari tren jangka panjangnya. Dengan demikian, indikator ini tidak memberikan sinyal kemungkinan resesi ekonomi dalam jangka pendek ini.
Currently, there are no indications that the Indonesian economy is overheating. This is evident in the fact that Indonesia’s economic growth has not deviated significantly from its long-term trend. In 2012, economic growth was below its long-term trend. As such, this indicator does not signal the likelihood of economic recession in the near term.
6. Siklus Bisnis Indonesia
6. Indonesia’s Business Cycle
Dalam siklus bisnis Indonesia, pada saat ekonomi ekspansi dan terdeteksi titik P1 berarti ekonomi akan melambat. Jika terdeteksi P2 berarti ekonomi akan melambat signifikan. Dan bila terdeteksi P3 berarti ekonomi akan memasuki resesi. Pada bulan Juli 1997, titik P1 sudah terdeteksi. Sedangkan titik P2 terdeteksi pada bulan September 1997 dan titik P3 terdeteksi pada bulan Pebruari 1998. Titik P3 ini sudah mengkonfirmasikan bahwa Indonesia mengalami resesi di tahun 1998.
In Indonesia’s business cycle, when the economy expands and P1 has been detected, it means that the economy will slow down. If P2 has been detected, it means that the economy will slow down significantly. And if P3 has been detected, it means that the economy will enter a recession. In July 1997, P1 was detected. Later, P2 was detected in September 1997 and P3 was detected in February 1998. The detection of P3 provided confirmation that Indonesia experienced a recession in
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Memang dalam periode Juli 2007 - Januari 1999, CEI cenderung menurun. Hal ini mengindikasikan adanya perlambatan yang signifikan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Selanjutnya, titik puncak P1 terdeteksi pada bulan Juni 2008 dan kemudian P2 serta P3 masing-masing terdeteksi pada bulan Oktober dan Nopember 2008. Ini juga menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia mengalami resesi di tahun 2008. Dalam periode Juli 2008 – Februari 2009, CEI memang cenderung menurun.
R E P O R T
1998. Indeed, in the period July 1997 - January 1999, the CEI tended to decline. This indicated a significant slowdown in Indonesia’s economic growth pace at that time. Some years later, P1 was detected in June 2008 and P2 and P3 were detected in October and November 2008, respectively – also an indication that Indonesia experienced a recession in 2008. Indeed, in the period from July 2008 to February 2009, the CEI tended to decline.
FIGURE 6. INDONESIA’S BUSINESS CYCLE
Source : Danareksa Research Institute
TROUGH DETECTION
PEAK DETECTION CEI
P1
P2
P3
CEI
129
129
123
123
117
117
111
111
105
T1
T2
T3
Feb-02
105
99
99
93 93
87 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source : Danareksa Research Institute
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87 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source : Danareksa Research Institute
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R E P O R T
Dalam siklus bisnis Indonesia, pada saat ekonomi resesi, maka deteksi T1 berarti ekonomi akan segera ekspansi. Deteksi T2 dan T3 berarti ekspansinya akan lebih pesat atau full capacity. Setelah resesi pada tahun 2008, titik T1 terdeteksi pada bulan Maret 2009 dan titik T2 serta titik T3 terdeteksi pada bulan Oktober 2009. Artinya setelah mengalami resesi mini dalam periode Juli 2008 – Maret 2009, maka perekonomian Indonesia kembali memasuki fase ekspansi. Dalam periode Maret 2009 hingga saat ini, tren CEI masih meningkat. Ini mengindikasikan bahwa perekonomian Indonesia masih bertumbuh. Namun beberapa bulan terakhir, CEI cenderung bergerak mendatar. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perekonomian Indonesia mulai melambat atau tidak tumbuh sepesat sebelumnya. Walaupun demikian, ini tidak berarti ekonomi Indonesia akan memasuki masa resesi karena titik P1 belum terdeteksi hingga saat ini. Selain itu, LEI juga masih menunjukkan tren meningkat. Hal ini berarti bahwa ekonomi Indonesia masih akan dalam masa ekspansi ke depannya.
In Indonesia’s business cycle, when the economy is in recession, the detection of T1 means that the economy will expand soon. Detection of T2 and T3 suggest that the expansion will proceed more rapidly or at full capacity. After the recession in 2008, T1 was detected in March 2009 and T2 and also T3 were detected in October 2009. This means that after experiencing a mini recession in the period July 2008 - March 2009, Indonesia’s economy entered an expansionary phase again. In the period March 2009 to the present, the CEI’s trend is still upward. This indicates that the Indonesian economy is still growing. However, in the last few months, the CEI has tended to flatten. This indicates that the Indonesian economy has begun to slow down. However, this does not mean that Indonesia’s economy will enter a recession because P1 has not been detected yet. Furthermore, the LEI still shows an upward trend. This means that the Indonesian economy should continue to expand in the months ahead.
7. Inflasi
7. Inflation
Salah satu indikator lainnya yang perlu diperhatikan adalah inflasi. Mengingat Bank Indonesia menganut inflation targeting framework , maka kenaikan tekanan inflasi yang signifikan akan direspon dengan menaikkan suku bunga (BI rate). Kenaikan suku bunga dan tekanan inflasi dapat memperlambat aktifitas perekonomian secara keseluruhan. Pada awal tahun 1998, inflasi bulanan meningkat tajam dari 1,8% pada bulan Desember 1997 menjadi 12,5% pada bulan Pebruari 1998. Begitu pula inflasi tahunan naik tajam dari 15,3% pada bulan Januari 1998 menjadi 82,6% pada bulan September 1998. Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh adanya imported inflation (peningkatan biaya akibat melemahnya Rupiah yang di pass through ke harga barang), kenaikan harga BBM, pertumbuhan uang yang sangat pesat dan masalah distribusi karena gangguan keamanan.
Another indicator to consider is inflation. Since Bank Indonesia has adopted an inflation targeting framework, BI will be prompted to respond to heightened inflationary pressures by jacking up interest rates (the benchmark BI rate). Hikes in interest rates and heightened inflationary pressures may dampen overall economic activity. In early 1998, the monthly inflation rate soared from 1.8% in December 1997 to 12.5% in February 1998. Similarly, the annual inflation rate rose sharply from 15.3% in January 1998 to 82.6% in September 1998. This huge increase was attributable to imported inflation (cost increases due to the weakening of the rupiah that are passed on through increases in the prices of goods), as well as subsidized fuel price hikes, rapid money growth and distribution problems due to security problems.
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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FIGURE 7. INDONESIA’S MONTHLY AND ANNUAL INFLATION Inflation
90
19
80 70
17 YOY (%) (LHS)
MOM (%) (RHS)
15
60
13
50
11
40
9
30
7
20
5
10
3
0
1
-10 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
-1
Source : The Central Bureau of Statistics
Pada tahun 2005, inflasi bulanan sempat mencapai 8,7% pada bulan Oktober 2005 dan inflasi tahunan mencapai 16,4% pada bulan November 2005. Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM secara ratarata sebesar 126% di tahun 2005 tersebut. Sedangkan pada krisis tahun 2008, inflasi bulanan hanya melonjak ke 2,4% pada bulan Juni 2008 dan inflasi tahunan melonjak ke 12,1% pada bulan September 2008. Peningkatan ini disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM dan meningkatnya harga komoditas di pasar global.
In 2005, the monthly inflation rate reached 8.7% in October 2005 and the annual inflation rate reached 16.4% in November 2005. This surge in inflation owed to the huge hikes in fuel prices by an average of 126% in 2005. Later in 2008, however, monthly inflation only rose to 2.4% in June 2008 with the annual inflation rate climbing to 12.1% in September 2008. This higher inflation owed to both hikes in fuel prices and rising prices of commodities in the global market.
Saat ini, inflasi bulanan sempat mencapai 3,3% pada bulan Juli 2013 namun telah mereda kembali menjadi 1,1% pada bulan Agustus 2013. Kenaikan inflasi bulanan yang signifikan pada bulan Juli tersebut terutama disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga BBM ditambah dengan kenaikan harga musiman akibat bulan puasa dan perayaan Idul Fitri serta kenaikan biaya sekolah dengan dimulainya tahun ajaran baru di bulan Juli. Sedangkan inflasi tahunan sudah mencapai 8,8% pada bulan Agustus dan diperkirakan akan mulai menurun hingga mencapai sekitar 8,6% di akhir tahun 2013.
More recently, the monthly inflation rate reached 3.3% in July 2013, after which it eased to 1.1% in August 2013. The surge in monthly inflation in July mainly owed to the hikes in subsidized fuel prices in addition to seasonal price increases in relation to the fasting month and the celebrations of Idul Fitri as well as increases in school fees as the new academic year started in July. In August, the annual inflation rate reached 8.8% and by the end of 2013 it is expected to decline to around 8.6%.
8. Volatilitas Suku Bunga Jangka Pendek
8. Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility
Pada saat krisis ekonomi, bank-bank biasanya mengalami kesulitan likuiditas. Dalam keadaan tersebut, bankbank tersebut berusaha mencari berbagai sumber likuiditas yang salah satunya adalah dari fasilitas pinjaman overnight. Karena itu, volatilitas suku bunga
During times of economic crisis, banks usually have liquidity problems. In these circumstances, banks are trying to find different sources of liquidity, one of which is from the overnight lending facility. As such, volatility of the overnight interest rate is an important indicator
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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pinjaman overnight ini menjadi salah satu indikator penting yang perlu dicermati. Pada bulan Agustus 1997, volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight meningkat cukup tinggi hingga hampir mencapai 0,7 dan kemudian berangsur-angsur menurun ke level di bawah 0,1 pada akhir tahun 1999. Pada akhir tahun 2005, volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight bahkan sudah sempat mencapai 0,9. Begitu pula menjelang krisis pada tahun 2008, volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight juga meningkat cukup tajam. Sepanjang tahun 2007 – 2008, volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight berkisar antara 0,4 hingga 0,8. Volatilitas yang tinggi ini menunjukkan bahwa bank-bank mengalami masalah likuiditas pada saat itu.
R E P O R T
that needs to be monitored closely. In August 1997, the volatility of the overnight interest rate soared to nearly 0.7 and then declined gradually to below 0.1 at the end of 1999. Later, at the end of 2005, the volatility of the overnight interest rate also rose significantly (it even reached 0.9). Similarly, before the crisis broke out in 2008, the volatility of the overnight interest rate rose quite sharply. In the period of 2007 - 2008, the volatility of overnight interest rates was in the range of 0.4 - 0.8. This high volatility indicates that banks experienced liquidity problems at the time.
FIGURE 8. INDONESIA’S SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATE VOLATILITY 1 0.9 Volatility
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Aug-13
Aug-12
Aug-11
Aug-10
Aug-09
Aug-08
Aug-07
Aug-06
Aug-05
Aug-04
Aug-03
Aug-02
Aug-01
Aug-00
Aug-99
Aug-98
0
Aug-97
0.1
Source : CEIC
Saat ini, volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight berada pada level yang sangat rendah. Memang pada bulan Juli 2013, volatilitas tersebut sempat naik, namun masih berada di bawah 0,1. Keadaan ini berbeda dengan keadaan pada waktu krisis tahun 1998 dan krisis tahun 2008 dimana volatilitas suku bunga pinjaman overnight meningkat tajam dan berkisar antara 0,4 hingga mencapai 0,9.
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Currently, the volatility of the overnight interest rate is very low. Although volatility did increase in July 2013, it was still below 0.1. This is in stark contrast to what happened during the 1998 and 2008 crises, when, at that time, the volatility of overnight interest rates rose sharply and stayed in the range of 0.4 - 0.9.
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9. Pertumbuhan Jumlah Uang Beredar
9. Money Supply Growth
Indikator lain yang menarik untuk dicermati adalah pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar, dimana pertumbuhan atau pengurangan jumlah uang beredar secara pesat berdampak pada inflasi dan nilai tukar Rupiah. Perkembangan uang primer (base money ) pada tahun 1998 meningkat tajam sebagai akibat masih berlanjutnya penarikan dana oleh masyarakat dalam jumlah besar. Dampak penarikan dana tersebut semakin tidak terkendali ketika bantuan likuiditas terpaksa diberikan kepada bankbank yang mengalami kesulitan likuiditas yang mendorong peningkatan uang beredar yang sangat besar. Uang beredar dalam arti sempit (M1) mengalami lonjakan akibat meningkatnya jumlah uang beredar dalam arti luas (M2). Pertumbuhan uang yang pesat ini menambah tekanan inflasi yang sebelumnya memang sudah meningkat tajam akibat depresiasi rupiah yang sangat besar. Berbeda dengan t ahun 1998, pada tahun 2008, Bank Indonesia melakukan kebijakan moneter yang cenderung ketat dengan menaikkan BI rate dan mengurangi pertumbuhan uang. Hal ini dimaksudkan untuk menurunkan tekanan inflasi akibat kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi serta tingginya harga komoditas di pasar global.
Another indicator is money supply growth. When there is either significant growth or a significant decline in money supply, there will be a commensurate impact on inflation and the rupiah exchange rate. The growth of base money in 1998 increased sharply as a result of a continued withdrawal of funds from banks by the general public. The impact of this withdrawal was more severe when banks - which had liquidity problems received liquidity assistance which eventually led to a significant increase in money supply. Money supply in narrow terms (M1) increased significantly due to the increasing amount of money supply in broader terms (M2). The rapid money supply growth heightened inflationary pressures, which had increased sharply due to the significant depreciation of the rupiah. In contrast to what happened in 1998, Bank Indonesia adopted tight monetary policy in 2008 by raising its benchmark BI rate and reducing money supply growth. This policy was intended to ease inflationary pressures which had mounted because of the subsidized fuel price hikes and rising prices of commodities in the global market.
FIGURE 9. MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH 140 120
M2
M1
M0
100 80 60 40 20
Jan-13
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-09
Jul-08
Oct-07
Jan-07
Apr-06
Jul-05
Oct-04
Jan-04
Apr-03
Jul-02
Oct-01
Jan-01
Apr-00
Jul-99
Oct-98
Jan-98
Apr-97
Jul-96
Oct-95
-20
Jan-95
0
Source : Bank of Indonesia
Pada tahun 2013, pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar masih dalam batas wajar, sangat jauh berbeda dengan tahun 1998 dan 2008. Rata-rata pertumbuhan bulanan di tahun 2013 untuk uang primer (M0) sebesar 12,5%, uang dalam arti sempit (M1) sebesar 12,7%, dan uang dalam arti luas (M2) sebesar 14,1%. Peningkatan pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar pada tahun 2013
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The growth in the money supply has been relatively stable in 2013, or unlike what happened in 1998 and 2008. In 2013, the average monthly growth of base money (M0) was 12.5%, while the average growth of money in narrower M1 terms was 12.7% and the average growth of money in broader M2 terms was 14.1%. In 2013, the increase in the growth of money supply was 13
S P E C I A L
hanya bersifat musiman, yakni menjelang dan pada saat Hari Raya Idul Fitri. Pada bulan Juli 2013, M0 tumbuh 18,2% (yoy), sementara bulan Agustus turun cukup signifikan menjadi 8,4%. M1 tumbuh 14% dan M2 tumbuh 14,8% pada bulan Juli 2013, sementara bulan Agustus turun menjadi 10,8% dan 13,3%. Secara keseluruhan, pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar 2013 masih dibawah 15% dan relatif stabil, dan diperkirakan tidak akan mendorong terjadinya serangan spekulasi terhadap Rupiah.
only seasonal: taking place before and during the Lebaran festivities. In July 2013, M0 grew 18.2% (yoy) but then the growth dropped significantly to 8.4% in August. M1 grew 14% and M2 grew 14.8% in July 2013 although the growth then fell to 10.8% and 13.3%, respectively, in August. Overall, the growth in money supply in 2013 is still below 15% and is relatively stable. As such, this growth in the money supply is not expected to trigger speculative attacks on the rupiah.
10. Economic Growth of Indonesia’s Main Trading Partners
10.Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara Mitra Dagang
The economic growth of Indonesia’s main trading partners plays a key role in determining demand for Indonesian exports. During the monetary crisis in 1998, the economic growth of both China and Japan slowed; in fact, the Japanese economy even experienced a contraction. The decline in Japan’s GDP was attributable to the twin crises of a weakening yen and weak domestic demand. As for China, its GDP growth pace slowed from 1992 until 1999. India, meanwhile, grew at a brisker pace after the 1998 crisis. The Asian financial crisis did not, however, result in contagion of the US and European economies. The US, which enjoyed low inflation and strong consumer spending, did not see a significant slowdown in its GDP growth. Later in 2008, however, the situation was very different. GDP growth weakened in the US, the EU, Japan, China and India; in fact, the US, Japan, and the European Union economies even experienced economic contraction.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara mitra dagang Indonesia menarik untuk dicermati karena dampaknya terhadap permintaan ekspor Indonesia. Pada krisis moneter tahun 1998, Cina dan Jepang mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan PDB, bahkan perekonomian Jepang mengalami kontraksi. Penurunan PDB Jepang diakibatkan oleh krisis yang simultan karena melemahnya Yen dan tekanan permintaan domestik. Akan halnya Cina, telah mengalami penurunan PDB sejak tahun 1992 dan berlanjut hingga tahun 1999, sementara India menunjukkan tren kenaikan pertumbuhan PDB. Krisis Asia tahun 1998 yang bermula dari pelemahan Thai Baht tidak membawa contagion effect terhadap pertumbuhan PDB AS dan Uni Eropa. AS, yang didukung oleh laju inflasi yang terjaga dan belanja konsumen yang kuat, tidak menunjukkan perlambatan pertumbuhan PDB yang signifikan. Lain halnya dengan krisis pada tahun 2008, penurunan PDB dialami bersama oleh AS, Uni Eropa, Jepang, Cina dan India, bahkan tiga negara yaitu AS, Jepang, dan Uni Eropa mengalami kontraksi. FIGURE 10. T HE ECONOMIC GROWTH
R E P O R T
OF INDONESIA’S
MAIN TRADING PARTNERS
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
Sep-13
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-98
Mar-99
Sep-97
Mar-98
Sep-96
Mar-97
Sep-95
Mar-96
Sep-94
Mar-95
-5.0
Mar-94
0.0
-10.0 -15.0 United States
Japan
China
Euro 17
India
Source : CEIC
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
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Dalam tahun 2013, hanya India dan Cina yang mengalami penurunan pertumbuhan PDB, sementara pertumbuhan PDB AS dan Jepang mulai menunjukkan tren naik setelah pada tahun 2012 sempat turun tajam. Uni Eropa, yang menunjukkan penurunan pertumbuhan PDB sejak 2010, saat ini juga telah menunjukkan perbaikan. Lain halnya dengan kinerja perekonomian India, saat ini mendekati keadaan seperti saat krisis keuangan global 2008 karena kemerosotan investasi, inflasi yang tinggi dan penurunan permintaan ekspor dari negara-negara barat sebagai tujuan ekspornya. Keadaan hampir sama dialami Cina yang mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi terlemahnya sejak 1991 yaitu 7,5% pada periode April-Juni 2013 akibat lemahnya ekspansi ekonomi, lesunya perdagangan dan minimnya dukungan keuangan dari sektor perbankan. Namun demikian, sejak Juli, Cina menunjukkan perbaikan pada pertumbuhan ekonominya. Tren perbaikan fundamental ekonomi di beberapa negara mitra dagang Indonesia tersebut akan berdampak positif bagi ekspor Indonesia ke depannya, sehingga peluang Indonesia memasuki resesi semakin berkurang.
11. Siklus Bisnis Beberapa Negara Mitra Dagang Siklus bisnis memberi gambaran mengenai fase perekonomian suatu negara. Pada saat negara mitra dagang Indonesia mengalami resesi, permintaan ekspor Indonesia akan menurun. Pada saat krisis Asia terjadi, Jepang telah memasuki resesi sejak Maret 1997 dengan terlihatnya puncak (peak) pada bulan Juli 1999. Sementara itu, AS dan Uni Eropa tidak mengalami resesi. Cina, yang sejak reformasi ekonomi akhir 1970 mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi, juga tidak menujukkan resesi. Terkait dengan hal ini, ekspor Indonesia ke Jepang sejak pertengahan 1997 menunjukkan penurunan, kemudian meningkat pada pertengahan 1999, sedangkan ekspor ke AS, Uni Eropa dan Cina relatif stabil. Dalam krisis keuangan 2008, Jepang dan Uni Eropa mengalami resesi sejak Februari 2008 hingga Maret 2009. Sementara AS yang menjadi pemicu krisis ekonomi global, mengalami krisis sejak Desember 2007 dan baru berakhir Maret 2009. Coincident (CEI) dan Leading Index (LEI) Cina pada 20082009 juga turun tajam, walaupun belum dikategorikan krisis. Dampak krisis global 2008 terhadap ekspor Indonesia ke negara-negara tersebut menunjukkan penurunan tajam, dan baru menunjukkan pemulihan setahun kemudian.
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
R E P O R T
In 2013, only India and China experienced weaker GDP growth. By contrast, GDP growth has already started to pick up in both the US and Japan after considerable weakness in 2012. The EU is also showing improvements. The weak Indian economy shares similarities to its condition during the 2008 financial crisis, marked by a deterioration of investment, high inflation and a decline in exports demand from western countries. China’s economy is also lethargic, recording its weakest growth since 1991 of 7.5% in the period April-June 2013 due to only moderate economic expansion, slowing trade and the lack of financial support from the banking sector. Nevertheless, since July 2013, China’s economy has shown improvements. In short, the improving trend in the economic fundamentals of some of Indonesia’s main trading partners will have a positive impact on Indonesia’s exports in the future. Hence, the risk of Indonesia entering a recession is lessening.
11. The Business Cycle of Indonesia’s Main Trading Partners The business cycle gives an overview of the economic phase that a country is currently in. This is significant as Indonesia’s exports will tend to decline when Indonesia’s main trading partners are in recession. Japan entered a recession in March 1997 which later peaked in July 1999. The US and the EU, by contrast, did not experience a recession. China, which had experienced a high pace of economic growth since the late 1970s, also avoided recession. Against this backdrop, Indonesia’s exports to Japan started to decline in mid-1997 but then increased again in mid-1999. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s exports to the US, the European Union and China were relatively stable. As a result of the financial crisis of 2008, Japan and the European Union experienced recessions from February 2008 to March 2009. Meanwhile, the US went through a difficult period from December 2007 until March 2009. China’s Coincident Index (CEI) and Leading Index (LEI) also fell sharply in 2008-2009, although they did not indicate a crisis. During the 2008 global crisis, Indonesia’s exports to these countries showed sharp declines but started to recover a year later.
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FIGURE 11. BUSINESS CYCLE OF INDONESIA’S MAIN TRADING PARTNERS
105
European Business Cycle
Jun-13
Apr-11
May-12
LEI Mar-10
Jun-13
Apr-11
May-12
Feb-09
Mar-10
Jan-08
Dec-06
Oct-04
Nov-05
Sep-03
Jul-01
Aug-02
Jun-00
Apr-98
May-99
Feb-96
Mar-97
China's Business Cycle
110
CEI
Jan-08
75
Expantion 40 Fase 20
Expantion Fase
80
70 Jan-95
80
Expantion Fase
Feb-09
75
Expantion Fase
85
Dec-06
80
85
90
Oct-04
85
60
Nov-05
95
Sep-03
Expantion Fase
90
80
Jul-01
Expantion Fase
Expantion Fase
90
100
Aug-02
95
105
95
Jun-00
100 100
100
110
Apr-98
105
105
120
Recession
115
May-99
LEI
Japan's Business Cycle Recession Recession
120
Mar-97
CEI
110
Recession
Jan-95
110
Feb-96
The US Business Cycle
0
108
1.5
106
1
105
0.5
100
EU CEI
110
Recession
EU LEI
104
94
-1
92
-1.5
Jun-13
May-12
Apr-11
Feb-09
Mar-10
Jan-08
Dec-06
Oct-04
Nov-05
Sep-03
Aug-02
Jul-01
Jun-00
Apr-98
May-99
Mar-97
Jan-95
85 Feb-96
Expantion Fase
Expantion Fase
Feb-13
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Feb-05
Feb-04
Feb-03
Feb-02
Feb-01
Feb-00
-0.5
96
Feb-99
LEI
95 Feb-98
CEI
90
0 Feb-97
98
Feb-96
100 95
Feb-95
102
100
90 85 80
Source : Bloomberg
Pada tahun 2013, hanya Cina yang mengalami penurunan kinerja ekonomi, sementara Jepang, Uni Eropa dan AS mengalami kenaikan. Cina, yang telah berpuluh tahun menikmati pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi, mengalami penurunan utilitas marjinal dan kelebihan kapasitas pada beberapa industri. Sementara itu, Uni Eropa mulai menunjukkan perbaikan, setelah pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya mengalami resesi, sedangkan AS dan Jepang masih menunjukkan fase ekspansi. Penurunan kinerja ekonomi yang terjadi pada beberapa negara mitra dagang Indonesia beberapa tahun ini berdampak negatif pada ekspor Indonesia. Sejak tahun 2012 ekspor Indonesia juga turut mengalami penurunan.
∂Ri
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
In 2013, only China is experiencing an economic slowdown. By contrast, the economies of Japan, the EU and the US are improving. China’s economy, which enjoyed strong growth for decades, is now marked by declining marginal utility and overcapacity in some of its industries. Meanwhile, the European Union is showing nascent signs of improvement after going through a recession in previous years. Also encouragingly, the US and the Japanese economies are in expansionary mode. Due to the economic slowdown in some of Indonesia’s main trading partners in recent years, Indonesia’s exports have been hit, especially since 2012.
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R E P O R T
12. Harga Komoditas Ekspor
12. Export Commodity Prices
Perkembangan harga komoditas berkaitan erat dengan penerimaan ekspor Indonesia, dimana porsi penerimaan ekspor menjadi andalan penerimaan dalam neraca pembayaran Indonesia. Nilai ekspor komoditas unggulan seperti batubara, nikel, timah, minyak kelapa sawit dan coklat sensitif terhadap fluktuasi harga. Pada periode 1997-1998, harga nikel dan timah dunia relatif stabil, sedangkan harga minyak kelapa sawit mengalami penurunan. Pada tahun 2007, harga nikel, timah, minyak kelapa sawit, dan batubara mengalami lonjakan. Memasuki tahun 2008, dimana terjadi resesi ekonomi global dan penurunan permintaan, harga nikel, timah, minyak kelapa sawit, batubara dan coklat mengalami penurunan tajam yang mengakibatkan anjloknya nilai ekspor komoditas tersebut.
Export commodity prices directly affect the performance of Indonesian exports. The export value of commodities such as coal, nickel, tin, palm oil and cocoa are sensitive to price fluctuations. In the period of 1997-1998, the prices of nickel and tin on the international market were relatively stable, while the price of palm oil was in decline. In 2007, the prices of nickel, tin, palm oil, and coal showed an increasing trend. In the beginning of 2008, however, when the global economy went into recession and demand fell, the prices of nickel, tin, palm oil, coal and cocoa declined sharply, which, in turn, meant lower export value for these commodities.
FIGURE 12. E XPORT COMMODITY PRICES MOVEMENT
9/26/12
9/26/11
9/26/10
5/6/13
5/6/12
5/6/11
5/6/10
5/6/09
5/6/08
5/6/07
5/6/06
5/6/04
5/6/03
5/6/02
5/6/01
5/6/00
5/6/99
2/18/13
2/18/12
2/18/11
0
2/18/10
0 2/18/09
500000
2/18/08
50
2/18/07
1000000
2/18/06
100
2/18/05
1500000
2/18/04
150
2/18/03
2000000
2/18/02
200
2/18/01
2500000
5/6/05
Cocoa
Coal 250
2/18/00
9/26/08 9/26/09
9/26/97
1/2/13
1/2/11
1/2/09
1/2/07
1/2/05
1/2/03
1/2/01
1/2/99
1/2/97
0 1/2/95
0
9/26/07
5000
9/26/06
10000
10000
9/26/05
15000
20000
9/26/02
20000
30000
9/26/01
25000
9/26/00
Tin
9/26/99
Nickel
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 9/26/98
30000
50000 40000
Palm Oil
35000
9/26/03 9/26/04
Nickel & Tin
60000
Source : Bloomberg
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
17
S P E C I A L
R E P O R T
Selanjutnya, penurunan ekspor Indonesia yang terjadi sejak tahun 2012, terutama disebabkan oleh pelemahan kinerja ekonomi yang melanda beberapa negara mitra dagang Indonesia, sehingga permintaan dan harga komoditas unggulan terkoreksi signifikan. Disamping itu, penurunan harga minyak kelapa sawit yang terjadi pada Juni 2013 disebabkan oleh musim panen. Demikian pula dengan penurunan ekspor batubara yang disebabkan oleh terpangkasnya harga batubara lebih dari setengahnya sejak tahun 2008 karena negara-negara produsen batubara meningkatkan produksinya, sementara permintaan impor batubara, terutama dari Cina, melambat. Harga coklat di pasar lokal yang lebih tinggi dan penurunan produksi coklat, membuat nilai ekspor coklat juga tertekan. Sementara itu, terjadi peningkatan volume ekspor nikel dan timah walaupun harga nikel dan timah sempat menurun. Peningkatan volume ini sebagai antisipasi eksportir sebelum pemberlakuan larangan ekspor biji timah jika dilakukan tanpa proses smelter dan adanya aturan batas kualitas ekspor timah. Perbaikan ekonomi global yang terjadi saat ini, diperkirakan akan membawa perbaikan pada nilai ekspor Indonesia.
More recently, the decline in Indonesia’s exports - which began in 2012 – primarily owed to the lethargic economic performance of some of Indonesia’s main trading partners. With weaker demand for some commodities, prices fell. For CPO, palm oil prices declined in June 2013 because of the onset of the harvesting season. The decline in coal exports, meanwhile, owed to sharp declines in coal prices due to both higher production and easing demand for coal imports - especially from China. Cocoa export value suffered from higher cocoa prices in the local market and a decline in cocoa production. For nickel and tin, export volume was up although prices were down. The move by exporters to increase export volumes was made ahead of an export ban on unrefined tin ore and on lower quality grade tin. However, going forward, the ongoing global economic recovery should give a boost to Indonesia’s exports value.
Memperhatikan indikator-indikator di atas, dapat disimpulkan bahwa saat ini perekonomian Indonesia masih dalam masa ekspansi, yang berarti masih tumbuh relatif baik. Namun demikian, penurunan kinerja ekspor dan kenaikan inflasi serta suku bunga diperkirakan akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2013 melambat menjadi 5.8%, lebih rendah daripada pertumbuhan tahun 2012 yang lalu, yaitu 6,2%. Selain itu, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi beberapa negara mitra dagang Indonesia yang terjadi sejak 2010 menyebabkan permintaan dan harga komoditas menurun, sehingga ekspor Indonesia menurun, neraca perdagangan dan neraca berjalan mengalami defisit serta memicu sentimen negatif terhadap Rupiah.
In summary, the Indonesian economy is still in an expansionary phase. This simply means that Indonesia’s economy will continue to grow. However, the decline in export performance and the higher inflation and hikes in interest rates are expected to put the brakes on growth. We now forecast economic growth of 5.8% in 2013, or lower than the growth of 6.2% in 2012. Furthermore, the prices of some of Indonesia’s main export commodities remain weak. This, in turn, has led to trade and current account deficits, subsequently creating negative sentiment on the rupiah.
Berdasarkan data makroekonomi terkini , sebagian besar negara mitra dagang Indonesia menunjukkan tren perbaikan kinerja ekonomi. Perbaikan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi mitra dagang utama Indonesia diperkirakan akan mendorong kembali kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Hal ini akan kembali memperbaiki neraca perdagangan dan neraca berjalan Indonesia, sehingga diperkirakan akan kembali dapat memberikan sentimen positif terhadap Rupiah.
Based on recent macroeconomic data, the economies of most of Indonesia’s main trading partners are showing signs of improvement. This augers well for Indonesia’s export performance going forward and should lead to better trade balance and current account numbers. In turn, sentiment toward the rupiah should also improve.
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DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
18
S P E C I A L
R E P O R T
TABLE 1. T HE MATRIX OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR 1998, 2008 AND 2013
∂Ri
Indikator/ Indicators
1998
2008
2013
REER
Rupiah tended to be be overvalued before the crisis.
Rupiah tended to stay at its fundamental value.
Rupiah tended to stay at its fundamental value
Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Imports
Above 4 times
Above 5 times
Above 6 times
Ratio of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Imports & Foreign
N/A
Above 4 times
Above 4 times
Debt Payments Ratio of Balance of Payment to GDP
Reached minus 13.4% Current account surplus; capital & financial account deficit
Reached minus 0.3% Current account surplus; capital & financial account deficit
Reached minus 1.0% Current account deficit; capital & financial account surplus
JCI
Negative growth
Negative growth
No Negative growth
The Economic Growth
Tended to be above its long term trend.
Tended to be above its long term trend.
Tended to be below its long term trend.
Indonesia’s Business Cycle
The detection of P3 indicated a recession.
The detection of P3 showed a recession.
P1 has not been detected, no indication of a recession.
Inflation
Annual inflation reached 82.6% in September.
Annual inflation reached 12.1%
Annual inflation reached 8.8% in August
Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility
Reached 0.7.
Reached 0.9.
Still below 01.
The Money Supply Growth
The growth of M0 reached 120%, M1 60%, M2 80%.
The growth of M1 & M2 was below 20%. The growth of M0 was negative.
The growth of M0, M1 & M2 was below 20%.
The Growth of Indonesia’s Most countries declined. Main Trading Partners India increased, China declined, the US & EU declined slightly. Japan contracted.
All countries declined. China & India declined significantly. Japan, The US & EU contracted.
The US, Japan & EU increased. China & India declined slightly.
Business Cycle of
The US, EU & China
The US, EU & Japan
The EU was in recession.
Indonesia’s Main Trading Partners
were not in recession. Only Japan was in recession.
were in recession. Only China was not in recession.
The US, Japan, China were not in recessiion
The Price of Export Commodities
Nickel & tin prices were relatively stable. Palm oil declined.
Commodity prices declined Commodity prices showed significantly. downward trends.
DANAREKSA RESEARCH INSTITUTE
19
RESEARCH TEAM
Damhuri Nasution Head of Economic Research
[email protected]
Pramayanti Meitisari Analyst
[email protected]
Asti Suwarni Analyst
[email protected]
Handri Thiono Junior Economist
[email protected]
Darwin Sitorus Economist / Database Officer
[email protected]
Yun Hariadi Analyst
[email protected]
Natalia Daisyana Research Assistant
[email protected]
Martin Jenkins Editor
[email protected]
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