Quo Vadis: Výzvy 21. století

Quo Vadis: Výzvy 21. století Zdeněk Tůma 11. Června 2014

* The presentation was prepared with the support of OGResearch, company for economic modelling and forecasting

Hlavní témata

Reálná konvergence české ekonomiky se zastavila, limity dalšího růstu Pravidla pro hospodářskou politiku

Cílování inflace Fiskální kompakt a jeho mutace

Role finančního sektoru a jeho budoucnost

Nová finanční architektura Regulace a komplexita Bankovní unie 2

The Czech economy was converging…

Source: Eurostat

3

… but slowly compared to peers

Source: Eurostat

4

Fundamentals worsening: bureaucracy and corruption

World Economic Forum – The Global Competetiveness Report 2013-2014

PL – 42th CZ – 46th HU – 63th SK – 78th

WB – Ease of Doing Business Ranking

SK – 46th HU – 54th PL – 55th CZ – 64th Source: WB

Fundamentals worsening: bureaucracy and corruption

Source: World Economic Forum

Fundamentals worsening: significant demographic risk

Source: Eurostat

7

Fundamentals worsening: Although the debt is low, it has been growing relative to peers, but without an effect on convergence

Source: Eurostat

Despite rising debt levels and low growth, borrowing costs remain at record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Going forward

Can fiscal policy do more?

Given that historically it has not been very effective in spurring growth

Can monetary policy do more?

Given that conventional tools are exhausted Weakening of the exchange rate using interventions Adopting the Euro

10

The power of fiscal policy to spur the economy seems exhausted …

Source: European Commission

… but some neighbors have run much higher deficits in the post-crisis period

Source: Eurostat

Monetary policy powers have too been exhausted some time ago

Source: Bloomberg

13

Unconventional tools? other floaters have depreciated more

14

Hard to avoid euro … •

The euro is essentially a political, not economic, concept

•

The euro project has unfortunately accumulated expectations and wishes that it could not have possibly delivered

•

This was to be expected: monetary arrangements cannot guarantee real improvements

•

Moreover, by nourishing unfounded expectations it could have contributed to delays in structural reforms and other necessary policy changes

Price Stability: delivered in EA, but also elsewhere

Source: Eurostat, OECD

Maastricht criteria on inflation rates

… Inflation in selected EMU countries •

Source: Bulir, Hurnik (2008)

Before the Euroadoption inflation was brought down in many countries quickly

… evaporated soon after the entry. Inflation in selected EMU countries •

•

Source: Bulir, Hurnik (2008)

Inflation convergence was unsustainable Inflation expectations could have remained high

Two examples

Source: Eurostat

Disciplining effect on the rest of EU strong, but price converegence limited

Source: Eurostat

Reducing Macroeconomic Volatility •

By removing the exchange rate as a major source of volatility in many economies

•

However, one-size-fit-all monetary policy could exacerbate other shocks and increase volatility at the same time

Inflation volatility

Source: Eurostat, OECD

Real volatility

Source: Eurostat

Pravidla pro hospodářskou politiku

Cílování inflace

Kotva pro měnovou politiku (obdobně fixní kurz či currency board) Kvantifikace cíle: proč 2% a nikoli 4% nebo dokonce záporné číslo?

Fiskální pravidla

Jsou Maastrichtská kritéria překonána? Je Fiskální kompakt kredibilní, smysl penalizace a vynutitelnosti

24

Finanční krize, regulace, komplexita

Finanční svět je velmi komplexní, máme proti tomu bojovat komplexní regulatorikou nebo hledat jednoduché „stopky“ pro rizika? Vznik nové finanční architektura Vlna nové regulace Probíhající strukturální změny v bankovních sektorech

25

Problém

Následek

Nadměrné riziko (obchodování, půjčování, financování) Komplexnost (neadekvátní management, monitoring, dohled a možnosti řešení) Omezená schopnost absorbovat ztráty Subvence uvnitř skupin Neefektivní řízení a kontrola

Vzájemná propojenost Omezené možnosti řešení (resolvability) Zacyklení mezi bankami a státním dluhem

Neadekvátní institucionální rámec v EU Velký důraz na čistě finanční operace Distorze v konkurenčním prostředí a implicitní subvence

© 2012 KPMG Česká republika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International“), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic.

26

Současný stav: přehled evropských dohledových institucí monitoring a varování na makro úrovni

ESRB European Systemic Risk Board

ESFS

European System of Financial Supervisors

ESA European Supervisory Authorities

ERSC European Systemic Risk Council

(ČNB) Národní regulátoři

EBA European Banking Authority

EIOPA European Insurance and Occupations Pension Authority

dohled a vynucování implementace do ČR legislativy

monitoring a varování na makro úrovni

vydávání regulací interpretační autorita harmonizace

ESMA European Securities Markets Authority

Přehled současných regulatorních změn (pouze vybrané změny) ■ CRD III (EU )

■ Liquidity Coverage Ratio

■ FSB (UK)

■ Net Stable Funding Ratio

■ Basel 2.5/3 ■ CRD4 ■ Pravidla pro Obchodní portfolio

Odměňování

■ EBA

Likvidita

■ EBA stress testy

■ MiFID 2

■ SIFI přirážky

■ CRD4

■ Ratingové agentury

Řízení a správa bank

■ Národní regulátoři ■ EBA, ESMA ■ Basel Committee

Kapitálová přiměřenost

■ EU Crisis Management

Regulované oblasti

Dohled a zveřejňování informací

■ Dodd-Frank Act

■ Recovery and Resolution Plan (UK)

Strukturální změny

■ Dodd-Frank Volcker Rule ■ Shadow Banking ■ High-level Expert Group (EU)

■ IFRS ■ FINREP

Jednání se zákazníky

■ COREP

Finanční kriminalita

■ ICB (Independent Commission on Banking, UK)

Tržní infrastruktura ■ MiFID 2 ■ PRIPs (Packaged Retail Investment Products) ■ Retail Distribution Review (UK)

■ MiFID 2 ■ EMIR ■ DoddFrank

■ Krátké prodeje ■ Securities Law Direction

■ AML ■ KYC (Know Your Customer) ■ FATCA

Hlavní oblasti dopadu CRD IV ALM

Produkty

Business model

Risk Management

IT systémy

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Governance

Reporting

Pilíř I

Nové položky kapitálu/ odečitatelné položky

X

Alternative Valuation Adjustment

X

CVA/CRR WWR

X

X

X

Nové koeficienty pro SMI expozice

X

Nové podrozvahové položky v rizikových kategoriích

X

X X

X

X

X

X

X

X X

Pilíř II Sankce a jiná správní opatření

X

Nové orgány a jejich organizační zařazení

X

X

Nové požadavky na rozsah kontrolní činnosti IA

X

X

Pilíř III Nové požadavky na reporting informací o kapitálu

X

X

Nové požadavky na reporting informací o kapitálových požadavcích

X

X

X

X

Likvidita/Pákový poměr LCR/NFSR

X

X

X

X

Finanční krize a nová architektura

Pochybení na mnoha úrovních: regulace vs lidský faktor Finanční svět je komplexní: lze proti tomu bojovat komplexní regulací nebo máme hledat jednoduché „stopky“ pro rizika Strukturální změny v bankovním sektoru: probíhají …

30

Nárůst „přeshraničních“ expozic Cross-border assets and liabilities of euro area banks 1977-2011

Source: Shin (2012).


31

Evropský bankovní sektor je mnohem větší ve srovnání s USA a Japonskem Size of EU, US and Japanese banking sectors (2010)

EU

USA

Japan

Total bank sector assets (€ trillion)

42.9

8.6

7.1

Total bank sector assets/GDP

349%

78%

174%

Top 10 bank assets (€ trillion)

15.0

4.8

3.7

Top 10 bank assets/GDP

122%

44%

91%

Notes: Top 6 banks for Japan. Source: European Banking Federation (2011).


32

Aktiva bank jsou často vyšší než národní HDP Total assets of EU and US banking groups (2011, in % of GDP)

Source: Data from SNL Financial. Eurostat for GDP data.


33

Velikost bankovních sektorů v EU27 Total assets of MFIs in the EU, by country (in % of national GDP) Notes: Assets as of March 2012, GDP data for end 2011. Based on aggregate balance sheet of monetary financial institutions (MFIs). Vertical axis cut at 1000% (ratio for Luxembourg is 2400%). Data on MFI includes money market funds. Source: ECB data. Eurostat for GDP data.


34

Velká diverzita ve strukturách bankovních sektorů Total assets held by small, medium, and large domestic banks and foreign subsidiaries and branches (as % of total assets), 2011

Source: ECB consolidated banking data.


35

Some banks focus more on trading activities Total assets held for trading (as % of total assets), 2011

Source: Data from SNL Financial.


36

Velká státní podpora bankám Parliamentary approved amounts of state aid in the period 10/2008-10/2011 in the EU:

€1.6 bil. (13% of EU GDP) státní podpory bylo vynaloženo na podporu bank v letech 2008-2010

Kromě toho byla centrálními bankami poskytováno velké množství likvidity

V rámci eurosystému bylo poskytnuto centrálními bankami prostřednictvím měnových operací více než € 1.1 bil. (do poloviny roku 2012)

Notes: Top 6 banks for Japan. Source: European Banking Federation (2011).


37

”Volcker Banking Group” Prop trading+

Market making pro

”HLEG Banking Group”

Prop trading+ Mkt making

Investment and commercial banking

Investment and commercial banking

Swaps push-out

”Vickers Banking Group” Investment and commercial banking (prop trading, mkt making, large corporate lending)


Retail banking with higher capital requirements

38

EC proposal published on 29th Jan, 2014

The European Commission issued on 29 January 2014 a proposed Regulation on structural measures for improving the resilience of EU banks This follows the development of national legislation on structural separation in Belgium, France, Germany and the UK; and the Volcker rule in the US. The proposed regulation is essentially a combination of a Volcker-type rule and a UK-style structural separation. The proposed Regulation has two main elements: The prohibition of proprietary trading, including commodities. The original Liikanen report did not include any recommendation to prohibit proprietary trading; and A structural separation power, under which national authorities could prohibit a bank that takes insured deposits from undertaking trading activities. Essentially, a banking group would have to undertake its trading activities in a separate legal entity from its retail deposit-taking. These restrictions would apply only to major banks operating in the EU. The Commission estimates this would apply to around 30 European banks, together with some branches of third country banks.


39

EC proposal

The prohibition on proprietary trading would take effect from 1 January 2017; and the structural separation provisions from 1 July 2018. These proposals would have major implications for banks' business models. Large banks subject to these proposals will therefore need to assess the commercial viability of their current business activities. The extremely complex and lengthy regulations introduced in the US to implement the Volcker rule show how difficult this can be in practice. Potential implications: Strategic challenge for universal banks Lost business - banks may find it challenging to service large corporates across multiple entities Operational costs – reporting, risk management, corporate governance Funding costs


40

Banking Union

Banking Union cont.

Deposit guarantee scheme – financed by banks. Shortening period when depositos must be paid out (from present 20 to 7 days) Ex-ante financing: 0.8% of covered deposits to be reached within a 10-year period, collected from banks' contributions Better access for depositors to information about the protection of their deposits, and for DGSs about their members (i.e. banks) Borrowing between DGSs on a voluntary basis Coverage harmonized at 100.000 euro („inherited“ from 2009)

Děkuji za pozornost

Zdeněk Tůma Partner KPMG Česká republika

© 2011 KPMG Česká republika, s.r.o., a Czech limited liability company and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International“), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in the Czech Republic. The KPMG name, logo and ‘cutting through complexity’ are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative (KPMG International).

Quo Vadis: Výzvy 21. století

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