PT PLN (Persero)
EBTKE – CONEX 2012
Readiness of PLN to Utilize Renewable Energy (Capacity, Bankable Power Purchase Agreement and Feasibility Study, Pricing)
PT PLN ( Persero )
Jakarta , 17 July 2012
0
Utilizing RE for Electricity, is PLN ready? PLN has been ready since quite long time. PLN has a long history in using green energy for its electricity generation especially as PLN project. How about IPP’s Project? • Great opportunity for private to make a PPA with PLN in IPP Schemes, RE or Non RE • Data said that very low success ratio of IPPs project compared to PLN project and the problem is not the readiness o PLN • Readiness of PLN in not necessary for questioned and has been realised by: o Stated on RUPTL (RE is priority nor leas cost) o Consistenly support the goverment policies o Support the IPP project : entertaint the IPP developer when required for continuation the project
Are the PPA and Pricing as the main problem? IPPs project, front (study) to end (electricity delivered) • Study (Preliminary, Pra FS, FS) : dev. responsibility technical (duration & quality) and financial • Permits : government (local, forestry, MeMR) permits and approval
LNG
• Procurement : Pricing and PPA
Gas
• Financial Closing : equity and loan • Construction : developer responsibility technical (duration and quality) and financial • Operation : developer responsibility technical (O/M) and financial PLN has an intensive involvement only in procurement (pricing and PPA)
Coal
PLN concern to capacity, energy production, energy price, availability and continuity HSD MFO Pricing for RE, PLN implements the government regulation (FIT or B 2 B) and PPA is negotionable
Pricing and PPA are not main problem, main constraint generally due to permits and internal Geothermal developer (capability in technical and financial)
2
IPP for MHEPP status REKAPITULASI STATUS PLTM IPP 12 Juli 2012 Region Indonesia Barat Operasi Konstruksi PPA Ijin ESDM Proposal Indonesia Timur Operasi Konstruksi PPA Ijin ESDM Proposal Jawa Bali Operasi Konstruksi HSD PPA Ijin ESDM Proposal Total Indonesia Total Operasi Total Konstruksi Total PPA Total Ijin ESDM Total Proposal
Number 67 7 10 19 15 16 48 8 19 5 12 4 68 8 12 10 27 11 183 23 41 34 54 31
IPP Installed Capacity (kW) 398,731 21,095 71,868 137,900 68,210 99,658 162,770 26,340 62,600 12,550 49,980 11,300 214,119 2,055 26,210 MFO 38,570 109,434 37,850 775,620 49,490 160,678 189,020 227,624 148,808
Number
Cumulative Installed Capacity (kW)
7 17 36 51 67
21,095 92,963 230,863 299,073 398,731
8 27 32 44 48
26,340 88,940 101,490 151,470 162,770
8 20 30 57 68
2,055 28,265 66,835 176,269 214,119
23 64 98 152 183
49,490 210,168 399,188 626,812 775,620
IPP for MHEPP • Total PPA : 98 • Construction/FC : 41 • Operated : 23 LNG F/C problem : 11 Construction problem : 14 Gas
Coal
Geothermal
3
IPP Geothermal status SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012 MODEL PENGEMBANGAN
PLTP PLN (EKSPLORASI DAN PENDANAAN)
JUMLAH PROYEK 1
TOTAL KAPASITAS (MW)
PIC
20
PLN
PROBLEMS LNG
TULEHU Gas
HULULAIS, S. PENUH, KOTAMOBAGU (TEHNICAL AND PERMITS PROBLEM)
PLTP PLN (HILIR)-PGE (HULU)
4
300
PLN, PGE
PLTP IPP - KONTRUKSI / FC SELESAI
2
170
DEVELOPER
PATUHA UNIT 1, ULUBELU 3 & 4
DEVELOPER , PLN
• LUMUT BALAI, LAHENDONG 5 & 6, KARAHA BODAS 1, KAMOJANG 5 (F/C Coal DELAY) • W. WINDU (PERMITS, TECHNICAL AND PRICING) • SARULLA I (JOC) • DIENG 2&3 (PRICING) • PATUHA 2 & 3 (TECHNICAL) DEV) • CIBUNI (LEGAL INTERNAL Geothermal
DEVELOPER
• KARAHA BODAS 2&3, KAMOJANG 6 (PERMITS) • T. PERAHU II (TECHNICAL AND PRICING) • I.ARGOPURO (PERMITS AND TECHNICAL) 4 • SARULLA II (TECHNICAL)
PLTP EKSTENSION/WKP EXISTING SIAP HSD MFO IMPLEMENTASI
PLTP WKP EXISTING MENUNGGU PROPOSAL / BELUM EKSPLORASI
8
3
1115
395
IPP Geothermal status SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012 MODEL
PLTP WKP BARU ESC/PPA SELESAI
PLTP WKP BARU (SURAT PENUGASAN SDH TERBIT DALAM PROSES/NEGOSIASI ESC/PPA) PLTP WKP BARU (PROSES PENERBITAN SURAT PENUGASAN) HSD
JUMLAH PROYEK
TOTAL KAPASITAS (MW)
PIC
3
445
DEVELOPER
ATADEI, MUARALABOH, RAJABASA LNG (EXPLORASI, F/C)
1515
DEVELOPER , PLN
Gas • SOKORIA, T.PERAHU I, C.CISUKARAME, TAMPOMAS (PRICING) • GUCI, R.DADAP, BATURADEN, NGEBEL, R.DANO, UNGARAN, SUOH SEKINCAU, S.MERAPI, JABOI (PPA PROCESS)
140
KESDM
JAILOLO, HU’U, IJEN
PEMDA
S.AGAM, D.RANAU, BONJOL, SIPOHOLON, S.SAMOSIR, WAY RATAI, GN. ENDUT, U.TELOMOYO, GN. CEREMAI, SEMBALUN, BORA, S. WAYAUA, MERANA/MASAINGI, MATALOKO
13
3
MFO
PLTP WKP BARU (IUP BELUM TERBIT/TENDER PEMDA BELUM SELESAI)
14
825
TOTAL
51
4925
PROBLEMS
Coal
Geothermal
From total of 51 projects : • Pricing problem faced by only 7 projects • PPA process : 9 project 5
Unsuccess story on “IPP terkendala” PLN has entertaint IPP projects, which had faced financial problem due to problems of developers scope. Renegociate the increasing price : •
2009 – 2011 : 25 IPP and 15 have been ammended
•
2011 – 2012 : 6 IPP and 2 have been ammended
LNG
Preliminary evaluation : after ammended with better price less than 50% of “IPPGasterkenda” demonstrate promising progress. Lesson : Price is not main problem Higher price does not guarantee the successful of the project
Coal
Higher price in some cases invite other stakeholder (brokers etc.), the incentives do not go to HSD stake holderMFO the right (profesional developers)
Geothermal
6
Government Support and Private Iniciative Government (central and local) support required: • Establish clear and harmonic regulation • Commit to proceed issues regarding permission certainly and progresively • Sinergic relationship between central and local government • Controling (monitor and supervise) the progress of RE development • Facilitating to enhance technical, financial and social aspect Private Iniciatives required: • Preparing internal capability (technical & financial) seriously • Commit to undertake each steps of development inline / meet the regulation and PPA including procedure, cost, schedule and quality • Profesional communication with other stake holder especially government and buyer/PLN
Thank you
8
IPP Geothermal status SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012 MODEL
PLTP WKP BARU ESC/PPA SELESAI
PLTP WKP BARU (SURAT PENUGASAN SDH TERBIT DALAM PROSES/NEGOSIASI ESC/PPA) PLTP WKP BARU (PROSES PENERBITAN SURAT PENUGASAN) HSD
JUMLAH PROYEK
TOTAL KAPASITAS (MW)
PIC
3
445
DEVELOPER
ATADEI, MUARALABOH, RAJABASA LNG (EXPLORASI, PERMITS, F/C)
1515
DEVELOPER , PLN
Gas • SOKORIA, T.PERAHU I, C.CISUKARAME, TAMPOMAS (PRICING) • GUCI, R.DADAP, BATURADEN, NGEBEL, R.DANO, UNGARAN, SUOH SEKINCAU, S.MERAPI, JABOI
140
KESDM
JAILOLO, HU’U, IJEN
PEMDA
S.AGAM, D.RANAU, BONJOL, SIPOHOLON, S.SAMOSIR, WAY RATAI, GN. ENDUT, U.TELOMOYO, GN. CEREMAI, SEMBALUN, BORA, S. WAYAUA, MERANA/MASAINGI, MATALOKO
13
3
MFO
PLTP WKP BARU (IUP BELUM TERBIT/TENDER PEMDA BELUM SELESAI)
14
825
TOTAL
51
4925
PROBLEMS
Coal
Geothermal
9
Generation Capacity (type and ownership) 2011 Existing Total Capacity 34,928 MW
695 440
Geothermal
347
HEPP
3.503 3.142
Coal STPP
12.170 285
CCPP
8.112 477
GTPP
2.871 130
Diesel PP
2.756
0
2.000
4.000
IPP (MW)
6.000
8.000
PLN (MW)
10.000 12.000 14.000
Share of RE in National Installed Capacity and Electricity Produced
Electricity generated based on primary energy (RE 12%)
Geothermal and other, 5.%
Fuel oil, 23.%
National (PLN+ IPP) installed capacity power plant (RE 14%)
Hydro, 7%
Coal, 44% Nat.Gas, 21%
Fuel Mix Projection 2011-2020 (in percentages)
HSD 8.57%
90%
16.12%
80%
5%
70%
17%
2% 4%
21%
0%
60%
3.93% 1.1% 3%
1.81% 0% 5%
0.99% 0% 6%
0.88% 0% 5%
0.77% 0% 7%
0.70% 0% 9%
0.70% 0% 9%
0.71% 0% 8%
400,000
17%
15%
12%
8%
8%
8%
350,000
19%
50% 61%
63%
63%
64%
64%
64%
65%
64%
200,000
150,000
54%
50%
Gas
250,000
MFO
40%
LNG
300,000
21%
GWh
100%
30%
Coal
100,000 20% 10% 0%
Impor
12%
12%
4%
5%
8%
10%
4%
8%
11%
5% 6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
50,000
Biomass
Surya/Hybrid
HSD
MFO
LNG
Gas
Batubara
Geothermal
Hydro
2011 Impor
2012
Biomass
2013
Surya/Hybrid
2014 HSD
2015 MFO
2016 LNG
Gas
2017 Batubara
2018
2019
Geothermal
2020 Hydro
Share of RE plan to increase from 11 % (2011) to 18 % ( 2020 ) Geothermal Hydro
Power Plant Capacity Development Plan (2011-2020) • • • • • • •
7,000 1,505
6,000 5,000
IPP PLN
1,106 688
5,172 4,656
3,690
4,000
780
8,000
3,000
2,463 4,477
4,283
4,102
6,000
1,000
2,254
1,992
1,780
6,436
5,941
5,583
3,019 2,357
7,164
6,877
7,000
5,372
2,000
: 35,573 MW : 5,723 MW : 6,247 MW : 3,263 MW : 4,093 MW : 441 MW : 55,345 MW
2,015
1,917
MW
CFPP M/HPP GPP CCPP GTPP Others Total
4,971 5,000
1,718
4,271
5,034
4,882
2019
2020
4,181
4,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3,000
MW
2,000 1,000
• Total : 55,345 MW ( 31.353 MW of PLN and 23,993 MW of IPP) • About 5.500 MW/year additional capacity
2011
2012
2013 PLTU
2014 PLTA
PLTP
2015
2016
PLTGU
PLTG
2017 PLT Lain
2018 Total
13
RE Potential and Development Plan
NO
RENEWABLE TYPE
POTENCY
INSTALLED CAPACITY
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY PROGRAM (2011-2020)
1
Hydro power
75.670 MW
5.705 MW
5222 MW
2
Geothermal
29.038 MW
1.209 MW
6247 MW
3
Mini/Micro Hydro
769 MW
218 MW
501 MW
4
Biomass
49.810 MW
61 MW
374 MW
5
Solar power
4,80 kWh/m2/day
13,5 MW
592 MW
6
Wind power
3 – 6 m/s (9.290 MW)
1,87 MW
140 MW
Source : RIPEBAT 2010-2025 updated from multiple sources and RUPTL 2011-2020
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