PT BAKRIE SUMATERA PLANTATIONS Tbk.
Public Expose
Jakarta, 13 Oktober , 2008
This presentation contains forward looking statements statements. Such statements are made based upon our current plans, expectations, estimates, assumptions and beliefs concerning future events impacting us and, therefore, involve a number of risks and uncertainties. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events or circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur, and our actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements.
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Ringkasan Pertumbuhan volume produksi mendukung kondisi operasional perusahaan
Kinerja keuangan perusahaan pada kwartal 4 2008 berpotensi melemah akibat dari penurunan tajam harga CPO Kinerja keuangan perusahaan pada kwartal 4 2008 berpotensi melemah akibat dari penurunan tajam harga CPO dan pelemahan harga karet ¾ Namun, peningkatan volume produksi dan penguatan nilai tukar USD diharapkan akan mampu memitigasi dampak penurunan harga jual komoditas tersebut Laba bersih semester I 2008 perusahaan sudah melampaui angka laba bersih satu tahun penuh 2007 Tidak ada hutang yg jatuh tempo dalam jangka pendek ‐komponen terbesar hutang perusahaan adalah obligasi jangka panjang US$160m (jatuh tempo pada 2011) Tingkat bunga hutang juga adalah Tingkat bunga hutang juga adalah ‘fixed’ fixed sebesar 10.75% (bunga yang sangat atraktif pada saat ini) sebesar 10 75% (bunga yang sangat atraktif pada saat ini) Dampak dari penurunan harga komoditas menimbulkan sentimen yang negatif terhadap sektor perkebunan ¾ Seluruh saham sektor perkebunan mengalami penurunan yang signifikan, bukan hanya BSP
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Tinjauan Keuangan 1H08 Tinjauan Keuangan 1H08 (IDR mn) new Revenue COGS Gross Profit gross profit margin EBITDA EBITDA margin Net Profit fi net profit margin
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
677,815 401,702 276,113 40.7% 246,768 36.4% 165,044 24.3%
902,586 612,916 289,670 32.1% 237,733 26.3% 161,403 17.9%
638,029 405,150 232,878 36.5% 196,321 30.8% 75,024 11.8%
1,580,401 1,014,618 565,783 35.8% 484,501 30.7% 326,447 20.7%
QoQ∆
YoY∆
33.2% 52.6% 4.9% ‐8.6% ‐3.7% ‐10.1% ‐2.2% % ‐6.5%
EBITDA (IDR bn)
Revenues (IDR bn)
584.3
600
484.5
500
2,500 1,949 2,000 525
1,181
1,500 1,000
696
500
283 414
147.7% 150.4% 143.0% ‐0.7% 146.8% ‐0.1% 335.1% % 8.9%
1 580 1,580 375
883
300
345 3 345.3 259.8
279.2
200
543
1,424
449 434
400
1,206
100
637
-
0
2004
2005 Rubber
2006
2007
Palm oil
1H08
2004
2005
2006
2007
1H08
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Rasio Keuangan Perusahaan g (IDR mn) Total Assets Cash&ST Investments Total Liabilities Interest bearing debts Total Equity
QoQ∆
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
4,417,207 769,726 1,865,840 1,532,788 2,551,024
4,670,552 745,952 2,044,475 1,536,402 2,625,054
2,324,282 184,700 1,641,540 1,348,960 682,514
4,670,552 745,952 2,044,475 1,536,402 2,625,054
Key Financial Ratios
1Q08
Net Debt/Equity Ratio (X) Net Debt/Total Assets (X) EPS (IDR)
2Q08
1H07
5.7% ‐3.1% 9.6% 0.2% 2.9%
YoY∆ 100.9% 303.9% 24.5% 13.9% 284.6%
1H08 QoQ∆ YoY∆
0.3 0.3 1.7 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.17 43.6 42.6 32.2 86.18
0.7% ‐82.3% ‐2.0% ‐66.2% ‐2.2% 167.8%
Net gearing ratio (x) 6.0 5.0
5.27
4.0 3.0 1.31
2.0
1.06
0.88 0.26
1.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
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Profil Hutang g Outstanding Debt Creditor BSP Bond RZB Bank Niaga Total BSP ARBV ‐ unconsolidated ARBV unconsolidated ARBV Bond Spinnaker Total ARBV
Principal
Interest
Maturity
USD 160 mn USD 15 mn IDR 6 bn
10.75% Libor + 2.75% 15.00% & 14.50%
USD 150 mn USD 12 mn
10.875% 10.800%
Interest Expenses 1H08 (actual)
SSolvency Ratio‐ 1H08 l i 1 08 EBITDA over Interest Ratio
Outstanding Balance Aug 2008 USD IDR
2011 2009 2010 3,438,745,270 3,438,745,270
160,000,000 15,000,000 ‐ 175,000,000
2012 2012
150,000,000 10,900,000 160,900,000
92,220
EBITDA 1H08 (actual)
5.25
Bond Covenant Bond Covenant EBITDA over Interest ratio Consolidated debt over EBITDA ratio
484,501
> 2 < 3.5
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Pergerakan Harga Komoditas Pergerakan Harga Komoditas (USD/tonne)
International CPO Price
International RSS Price (USD/tonne)
1,400
350
1,200
300
1,000
250
800
200
600
150
400
100
200
50
-
-
ASP (IDR mn/tonne) CPO Rubber
1Q08 8.28 8 28 23.21
2Q08 8.76 8 76 25.78
1H07 5.21 5 21 18.34
1H08 8.56 8 56 24.42
QoQ∆ 5.8% 5 8% 11.1%
YoY∆ 64.4% 64 4% 33.2%
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Produksi TBS Produksi TBS 1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
101,129 20,314 121,443 65,121 47,637 234,201 ,
187,400 19,313 206,713 119,452 76,043 402,208 ,
190,085 36,204 226,289 151,695 99,593 477,577 ,
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
14.59 17.45 1.45
15.70 16.16 1.41
19.60 12.71 1.26
15.70 16.16 1.41
Production Volume (tonnes) Existing Business Units 88,956 New Business Units 15,890 Total FFB Home Grown 104,846 FFB ‐ ARBV 86,574 FFB ‐ Plasma 51,955 Total 243,375 ,
Yield (tonnes/ha) FFB ‐ Nucleus FFB ‐ Plasma Rubber
YoY∆ 1.4% 87.5% 9.5% 27.0% 31.0% 18.7%
YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 277,201 38,332 315,533 164,502 107,791 587,826 ,
YoY∆
277,855 55,715 333,570 200,860 132,312 666,742 ,
0.2% 45.3% 5.7% 22.1% 22.7% 13.4%
YTD Aug 07
YTD Aug 08
YoY∆
‐19.9% 22.27 27.1% 13.41 12.0% 1.18
16.32 16.10 1.38
‐26.7% 20.0% 16.8%
YoY∆
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Pergerakan Harga Saham Sektor Perkebunan g g Last Price
Date 1/1/2008 9/26/2008 10/2/2008 10/3/2008 10/6/2008
% Changing
Date
YTD Day to Day
1/1/2008 - 10/6/2008 9/26/2008-10/6/2008 10/3/2008-10/6/2008
CPO
JAKAGRI
AALI IJ
UNSP IJ
LSIP IJ
SGRO IJ
995.0 730.00 667.50 657.50 610.00
2,754.76 1,466.73 1,489.57 1,489.57 , 1,200.30
28,000 13,250 12,950 12,950 , 10,000
2,275 730 710 710 460
10,650 3,550 3,550 3,550 , 2,675
3,450 1,750 1,690 1,690 , 1,420
-38.69% -16.44% -7.22%
IOI MK SIME MK KLK MK KUL MK
7.75 4.42 4.20 4.10 3.94
11.90 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.65
17.40 9.75 9.60 9.05 8.35
5.39 2.73 2.53 2.40 2.09
IFAR SP GGR SP
2.42 0.82 0.77 0.72 0.66
1.06 0.37 0.33 0.31 0.28
CPO Price – BSP Share Price (IDR)
1,400
3,000
1,200
2,500
873
1,000
704
800
511
2,000 1,500
422
400
1,297
200 ‐
WIL SP
-56.43% -64.29% -79.78% -74.88% -58.84% -49.16% -44.12% -52.01% -30.82% -61.22% -72.73% -73.58% -18.17% -24.53% -36.99% -24.65% -18.86% -10.86% 0.76% -14.36% -4.35% -23.44% -19.02% -23.29% -19.42% -22.78% -35.21% -24.65% -15.98% -3.90% 0.76% -7.73% -1.79% -12.92% -8.33% -8.20%
(USD/tonne)
600
7.95 5.75 5.50 5.60 5.50
1 000 1,000 500
887
360
1 121 1,121
‐
CPO Price (LHS)
Share Price (RHS)
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Tinjauan Industri
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Prospek p Harga g CPO Comparison of Edible Oils Edible Oils Price Chart
Prod duction per Ha (tonnes)
6 (USD/tonne)
Palm Oil
5 4 3 2 1
Rapeseed Oil Soybean Oil
0 200
250
300
350
400
450
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -
500
Production Cost (US$/tonnes) CPO Price
Rapeseed Price
Soybean Price
Source: Internal Estimation Source: Oil WOrld
– CPO merupakan minyak nabati yang paling mampu memenuhi permintaan kebutuhan minyak nabati di masa depan • Produktivitas tertinggi namun biaya produksi terendah dibanding jenis minyak nabati lainnya – Diskon atas harga CPO dibanding harga minyak nabati lainnya tidak dapat dijustifikasi • Anggapan bahwa konsumsi CPO tidak baik bagi kesehatan sudah berkurang • Perbedaan tarif impor antara CPO dan minyak kedelai semakin kecil • Adanya proyek biodiesel meningkatkan kebutuhan akan minyak nabati 10
Driver Permintaan CPO Global Edible Oil Consumers 2007
Per Capita Edible Oil Consumption 2007
EU 18.30%
Other 39.50%
(Kg/capita) 70 57.4 60
54.1
50 40 30
Brazil 3.60%
China 18.60% India 9.30%
Source: Oil World.
USA, 10.70%
23.2
22.0
20 8 20.8
20
12.3
10 0 EU-27
USA
World
China Indonesia
India
Source: Oil World.
Level of Inventory of Edible Oils
Source: Oil World.
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Prospek Harga Karet Produksi karet alam hanya tumbuh 2% pada 2007 sedangkan permintaan meningkat 6% Tingkat penetrasi kendaraan bermotor di China dan India masih sangat rendah
Natural Rubber Supply & Demand
Natural vs Synthetic Rubber Prices (US$/tonne)
('000 ttonnes))
10,000
3,000 2113
9,500
2314
2250
2,000
2256
1969
9,000
2235
1873
1710
2529
1948
1,000 8,500
NR prices-NY TSR20
SR prices-USA SBR
0
8,000 FY05 NR production
FY06
FY07
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
NR consumption
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Terima Kasih
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