CZECH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE www.komora.cz
Podpora ekonomické diplomacie Vladimír Dlouhý, prezident, Hospodářská komora ČR
Konference ekonomických radů Praha, 22. června 2015
GDP, 2010 – 2015, seasonally adjusted 5
5 4
3
3 2
1
1 0
-1
-1 -2
-3
-3 I/10
I/11
I/12
q-o-q GDP growth (right-hand scale)
I/13
I/14 y-o-y GDP growth
I/15
GDP, 2010 – 2016, seasonally adjusted 4
2
0
-2
-4 I/10
I/11
I/12
Year on year
I/13
I/14
I/15
Quarter on quarter
I/16
Annual GDP growth structure
annual % changes, contribution in % point, seasonally adjusted 5 4
3 2 1 0 -1
-2 -3 I/10
I/11
I/12
I/13
Household consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories
I/14
I/15
I/16
Net exports Government consumption GDP growth
Inflation: headline and monetary policy relevant yoy in % 6 5 4 3 Inflation target
2 1 0
-1 -2 I/10
I/11
I/12
I/13
Monetary policy-relevant inflation
I/14
I/15
I/16
Headline inflation
Labor market forecast annual changes in %, seasonally adjusted
2
9
1
8
0
7
-1
6
-2
5
-3
4
I/10
I/11
I/12
Employment
I/13
I/14
I/15
I/16
General unemployment rate (right-hand scale)
CZK/EUR and CZK/USD exchange rates 30 28 26
24 22 20 18 16 14 1/10
1/11
1/12 CZK/EUR
1/13 CZK/USD
1/14
1/15
Forecast of selected variables 2014 actual
2015 forec.
2016 forec.
Real gross disposable income of households Total employment Unemployment rate (in per cent)a) Labour productivity Average nominal wage
2.1 0.8 6.2 1.6 2.4
2.8 1.0 5.4 1.5 2.5
2.0 0.6 5.0 2.6 3.9
Average nominal wage in business sector Current account balance (ratio to GDP in per cent) M2
2.4 0.6 4.2
2.3 1.1 5.6
4.2 1.5 6.3
a) ILO
methodology, 15–64 years
Fiscal forecast 2014
Government revenue Government expenditure of which: interest payments GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE of which: primary balancea) one-off measuresb) ADJUSTED BUDGET BALANCEc) Cyclical component (ESCB method)d) Structural balance (ESCB method)d) Fiscal stance in pp (ESCB method)e) Cyclical component (EC method)d) Structural balance (EC method)d) Fiscal stance in pp (EC method)e) Government debt
2015
2016
actual 40.1 42.0 1.3 -2.0
forecast 40.6 42.2 1.2 -1.6
forecast 39.9 40.9 1.2 -1.0
-0.7 -0.6 -1.4 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 42.6
-0.4 -0.2 -1.4 -0.1 -1.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 40.6
0.2 0.1 -1.1 0.3 -1.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.1 40.0
BoP forecast A. CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods Services Primary income Secondary income B. CAPITAL ACCOUNT C. FINANCIAL ACCOUNTa) Direct investment Portfolio investment Financial derivatives Other investment Reserve assets a)
forecast excluding operations of banking sector and financial derivatives but including changes in CNB reserves
2014 actual 26.1 238.9 55.9 -259.0 -9.7 32.2 48.0 -133.6 90.3 -6.0 24.2 73.1
2015 forec. 50.0 280.0 45.0 -275.0 0.0 60.0 202.0 -30.0 50.0
2016 forec. 70.0 320.0 50.0 -300.0 0.0 60.0 127.0 -75.0 40.0
50.0 132.0
30.0 132.0
10
3
GDP growth forecast
Interest rate forecast
8 6
2
4 2
1
0 -2
0
-4
II/13 III
II/13 III IV I/14 II III IV I/15 II III IV I/16 II III IV 90% 70% 50% 30% confidence interval 6 5
Monetary policy-relevant inflation forecast
4
6
Monetary policy horizon
5
3
2
2
1
1
0
0 Inflation target
-2 II/13 III
IV I/14 II
90%
70%
III 50%
III IV I/15 II III IV I/16 II III 50% 30% confidence interval
Headline inflation forecast
4
3
-1
IV I/14 II 90% 70%
-1
IV
Monetary policy horizon
Inflation target
-2 IV I/15 II
III
IV I/16 II
30% confidence interval
III
IV
II/13 III
IV I/14 II 90%
70%
III 50%
IV I/15 II
III
IV I/16 II
30% confidence interval
III
IV
CEE: unemployment, public finance 15,0
80
10,0
60
5,0
40
0,0
20
-5,0
0 BG
CZ
EST
H
LAT
LTU
PL
RO
Unemployment rate General government net lending/borrowing (%GDP) Current account balance (%GDP) General government gross debt (%GDP, r.h.s.)
SVK
SLO
Tisíce
GDP per capita, 1991-2019, in PPP 40
30
20
10
0 1991 BG
1995 CZ
1999 EST
H
2003 LAT
2007 LTU
2011 PL
RO
2015 SVK
2019 SLO
Current account, CZK bill. 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 -125 -150 I/10
I/11
I/12
Goods
Services
Secondary income
Current account
I/13
I/14 Primary income
CZECH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE www.komora.cz
Exports 2006 - 2014
Source: Czech Statistical Office. 2015
Page 15
CZECH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE www.komora.cz
Imports 2006 - 2014
Source: Czech Statistical Office. 2015
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CZECH CHAMBER OF COMMERCE www.komora.cz
Foreign Trade and Investment – Top 10 Foreign Trade according to turnover (1999-2014)
Country
Share in total foreign trade (%)
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow (1993-2013)
Country
Share in total FDI inflow (%)
Germany
30,4
Germany
22.0
Slovakia
7,1
Netherlands
17.0
Poland China (Peoples Republic of)
5,9
Austria
13.3
France
5.7
United States
5.5
France
4,5
Austria
4,3
Switzerland
4.6
Italy
4,3
Belgium
4.7
Russian Federation
3,9
United Kingdom
2.0
United Kingdom
3,7
Sweden
1.6
Netherlands
3,3
Italy
0.8
Source: Czech Statistical Office 2015; Czech National Bank 2014
4,6
Page 17
Exportní strategie 2012 - 2015 • Růst celkového vývozu 2014/2013: +13,5% • Prioritní země +2.8%, zájmové země +4.8%
• Podpora státu dále potřebná, diverzifikace, orientace na mimoevropské trhy • Exportní podpora malých a středních firem • jazyková bariéra, zahraničně-obchodní praxe
• Spolupráce s ekonomickými diplomaty
Aktivity HK ČR • Podnikatelské mise, efektivita • Nástroj pro nalezení zahraničních partnerů, především kontakty mimo evropské země • předvýjezdní setkání
• • • •
Následné vyhodnocení misí, zásadní Teritoriálně zaměřené kulaté stoly Semináře o exportu Úzká spolupráce s MPO a MZV ČR, poděkování
Kudy dál? • Nezastupitelná role státu • Nabídka využití naší komorové sítě • existuje 22 let, k dispozici 300 lidí
• Průběžné zjišťování aktuálních potřeb českých exportétů • Exportní semináře, efektivnější příprava misí
Děkuji za pozornost
