LAPORAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER Triwulan III 2013
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|1
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|2
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|3
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|4
Index Indeks 65
55
expanding ekspansi
60
Indeks Keyakinan konsumen ke depan Keyakinan konsumen saat ini
50
40 35
ISM ISMManufaktur Manufacture contracting kontraksi
45
ISM ISMJasa-Jasa Services Data Sept 2013 Sumber: Bloomberg
Sumber: Bloomberg DataDate SeptSept 2013 2013 Source: Bloomberg 30 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Indeks, PMI = 50 : netral
Indeks, 50 : netral
PMI Komposit PMI Non Manufaktur PMI Manufaktur
PMI > 50 : ekspansi Sumber: Bloomberg
PMI < 50 : kontraksi
> 50 : Ekspansi < 50 : Kontraksi Data Sept 2013
Sumber: Bloomberg
Data Sept 2013
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|5
Indeks
Indeks
Indeks
Produksi Industri PMI Manufaktur (sk. Kanan) Sumber: Bloomberg Data Sept 2013
Data Ags 2013 Sumber: Bloomberg
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|6
Sumber: Bloomberg
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|7
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|8
Laporan Kebijakan Moneter|9
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 10
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 11
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 12
US$ M 5
Trade Balance Non OilNonmigas and Gas Neraca Perdagangan
4
Neraca Perdagangan Trade Balance Oil and Migas Gas
3
Neraca Perdagangan Trade Balance Total
Saham
2 1 0 -1
-2 -3 Jan-11
May-11 Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12 Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 13
Rata-rata
IDR/USD harian Rata-rata bulanan Rata-rata triwulan
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 14
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 15
80
9.0
Nilai Tukar (dep (+)/apr (-), %, yoy) Indeks Harga Impor (proksi Imported Inflation, % YOY) *)
8.0
Inflasi Core Traded (%, yoy), RHS
60
%
Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan (SKDU)
80
7.0 40
6.0
75
5.0 20 4.0 0
70
3.0
65 2.0 -20 1.0
Sep-13
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
0.0 May-08
-40
*) Indeks komposit harga global dengan weigted average (berdasar prosentase impor dan bobot di IHK) dari komoditas pangan (CPO, gandum, gula, jagung dan kedelai) , minyak dunia (WTI), emas, kapas, dan besi.
60 12341234123412341234123412341234123412
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 16
%,yoy
Ekspektasi ↑ sebelum kebijakan diberlakukan
Indeks
50
180
40
160
30 140
20 10
120
0 Administered Prices Ekspektasi Inflasi (SPE 3 bln), RHS
-20
Ekspektasi Inflasi SPE 6 bln, RHS Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
-10
100 80
Sumber: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Inf > 8,50% 8,00% < inf ≤ 8,50% 6,80% < inf ≤ 8,00% Inf ≤ 6,80%
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 17
10
7.5
9
7.0
8
8
6.5
7
7
6.0
6
6
5.5
5
5
5.0
4
4
4.5
3
3
4.0
20.0
3.5 Jan-12
-
%
12.05
13
9
14.0
11
1
BI rate
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-10
Sb Dep 1 bln
Jan-11
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
0 Jan-05
5
Sb Kredit
100.0 80.0
rPUAB : 5.05% Avg Vol DF: Rp 114.2 T RRT Vol PUAB : Rp 10.1 T
Apr-12
%
Jul-12
Okt-12
40.0
Jan-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
12.5
Jul-13
Aug-13
12.0
13.0
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sb LPS
11.5
12.11 12.02 12.03 12.00 11.99 11.93 12.05 12.05
3
6.19
Spread-rhs
rDF O/N
Feb-13
2
7
120.0
4
Selisih rKredit - rDepo1: 586bps
9
Rp T
rPUAB O/N
Jan-13
13.5
6 5
Vol PUAB O/N (RHS)
rBI Rate
60.0
8 7
Vol DF O/N (RHS)
11.29 11.27 11.24 11.21 11.17 11.14 11.29 11.37
% 15
%
13.40 13.22 13.28 13.22 13.20 13.14 13.06 13.05
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
rBI Rate
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
rDF O/N
Apr-10
%
rLending rate
11.49 11.45 11.44 11.44 11.46 11.41 11.66 11.63
rPUAB O/N
Jul-12
%
9
Oct-12
10
11.0 Sb KMK
Sb KI
Sb KK
RRT
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 18
35
%, yoy
30
DPK (RHS) Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%)
25
Giro (Pangsa 23.9%) Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)
16
Kontribusi Pertumbuhan (%)
14 20
25
15
20
12
%yoy
DPK (%, yoy) RHS
Giro (Pangsa 23.9%)
Tab (Pangsa: 31.9%)
Depo (Pangsa 44.2%)
25 20
10
15
8 10
10 5
-
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-12
Per Agst 2013
Oct-10
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
5
2
Per Agst 2013
-
4
Jan-10
5
10
6
Apr-10
15
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 19
6000
11
5000
10 9
4000
8
3000 7 2000
6
1000 JCI IHSG
BI RATE
4 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13
0
5
World EM ASIA US (Dow Jones) Japan (Nikkei) England (FTSE) India (SENSEX) Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Shanghai (SHCOMP) Strait Times (STI) Kuala Lumpur (KLCI) Philippine Thailand (SET) Vietnam Indonesia (IHSG)
5,8% 4,1% 1,5% 5,7% 4,0% -0,1% 9,9% 9,9% 0,6% -0,3% -4,2% -4,7% 2,4% -10,4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 20
6.000
25,0 20,0
5.000
15,0 10,0
4.000
5,0 3.000
(5,0)
2.000
1.000
(10,0)
(15,0) Net Beli/Jual (RHS)
IHSG
(20,0) (25,0)
Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13
0
Properti Property
-20,5%
Pertanian Agriculture
-13,8%
Perdagangan Trade
-11,8%
Konsumsi Consumption
-9,9%
Aneka Industri
Misc. Industry
Industri Dasar
Basic Industry
-6,9%
-19,8%
Keuangan
Finance
-7,8%
Pertambangan
Mining
Infrastruktur
Infrastructure
-8,6%
IHSG
IHSG -25%
0,8%
Quarterly Changes -10,4% -20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 21
11,00
Spread (bps) - RHS
%
30-Jun-13
30-Sep-13
BI RATE
bps 160,0
10,50
140,0
10,00
120,0
9,50 9,00
100,0
8,50
80,0
8,00
60,0
7,50 7,00
BI RATE
6,50 6,00
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
Utama
20,0
Sumber: Bloomberg, data eop 0,0 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y
2012
Indikator
40,0
2013
Sep
Des
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agt
Total Aset
(T Rp)
4,009.4
4,262.6
4,211.0
4,237.1
4,313.8
4,367.8
4,418.7
4,461.8
4,510.3
4,581.1
DPK
(T Rp)
3,204.5 2,688.1
3,207.3 2,718.7
3,243.1 2,768.4
3,299.4 2,824.2
3,349.7 2,887.5
3,392.9
3,440.2
(T Rp)
3,225.2 2,707.9
3,374.4
Kredit *
3,050.0 2,555.9
2,959.1
3,021.1
3,067.4 89.2
LDR*
(%)
83.8
84.0
83.9
84.8
85.4
85.6
86.2
87.7
89.0
NPLs Gross*
(%)
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
CAR
(%)
17.4
17.4
19.2
19.2
18.9
18.6
18.4
18.0
18.0
17.9
NIM ROA * tanpa channeling
(%) (%)
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.5 3.1
5.3 2.9
5.4 3.0
5.4 2.9
5.4 3.0
5.4 3.0
5.5 3.0
5.5 3.0
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 22
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 23
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 24
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 25
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 26
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 27
L a p o r a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r | 28