11/7/2014
Indonesia Economy : Challenge and Opportunity NUNUNG NURYARTONO Go-Live Round Table Discussion Adelaide 7 November
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
Outline A Fact on Indonesia Economy Problem and Challenge Opportunity Discussion
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
1
11/7/2014
Indonesia : current and future
Sources: McKinsey Global Institute (2012) InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
GDP Growth : tend to slow down GDP Growth 6.81
7.00
6.00
6.44
6.29
6.50 5.99
6.58
6.49
6.44
6.33
6.34
6.21
6.18
6.03
5.81
5.76
5.63
5.72
5.50
5.21
5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 10 Q1
10 Q2
10 Q3
10 Q4
11 Q1
11 Q2
11 Q3
11 Q4 GDP
Gini Ratio 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30
0.41 0.37
0.41
0.413
0.38
0.35
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
12 Q1
12 Q2
12 Q3
12 Q4
13 Q1
13 Q2
13 Q3
13 Q4
14 Q1
Poly. (GDP)
40 20 0 -20
Export and Import 22.12 7.82 19.68
26.06
-1.66 -4.08 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 7 November 2014
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11/7/2014
Indonesian’s Economy Structure 2007-2012 2007
27,35
N
25,04 22,36
41,62 26,92
36,73 24,67
26,08
40,27
43,20
33,81
24,30
36,10 22,45
38,12
31,99
38,42
60,41
28,65
44,97 Sektor Dominan Pertanian Pertambangan & Penggalian Industri Pengolahan Perdagangan, Hotel Keuangan & Persewaan Jasa-Jasa
32,33 32,33
28,81
28,98 36,00
1000
0
40,27 1000
2000 Kilometers
Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), data diolah dari informasi BPS InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
2012
Source : Nuryartono (2014),
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
3
11/7/2014
Java Island is an engine of growth Share Size of Economy 2005 dan 2012 (persen)
58.84 57.63
60 50 40 30
22.11
23.79
20 10.7 4.07 4.73
10
10
2.23 1.99
2.2
2.07
0 Sumatra
Jawa
Sulawesi
Bali NTT dan NTB
2005
Kalimantan
Papua dan Maluku
2012
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
Poverty map in rural areas: 2013
Sumber : Nuryartono (2014), peta tematik diolah dari BPS
7 November 2014
Poor people (%) Papua Barat 36.89 Papua 40.72 Maluku Utara 9.20 Maluku 26.30 Sulawesi Tenggara 16.92 Sulawesi Barat 13.31 Sulawesi Selatan 13.31 Sulawesi Tengah 15.89 Gorontalo 24.22 Sulawesi Utara 10.46 Kalimantan Timur 10.24 Kalimantan Selatan 5.50 Kalimantan Tengah 6.45 Kalimantan Barat 10.07 Nusa Tenggara Timur 22.69 Nusa Tenggara Barat 16.22 Bali 5.00 Jawa Timur 16.23 DI Yogyakarta 17.62 Jawa Tengah 16.05 Banten 7.22 Jawa Barat 11.42 DKI Jakarta 0.00 Lampung 15.62 Bengkulu 17.97 Kepulauan Bangka… 6.97 Sumatera Selatan 14.50 Jambi 7.54 Kepulauan Riau 9.21 Riau 9.55 Sumatera Barat 8.30 Sumatera Utara 10.33 Aceh 20.14 0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.00
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
4
11/7/2014
Increasing Inequality among the region 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
2012
2013
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
Infrastructure Development an comparison Infrastructure index 1991-2007 97.04
100.00
85
90.00
70.00
60
60.00
55.50
45 44.33
50.00 40.00
33.39
47 48
44
3638.42 34.03
36
30.00
31.59
29
49.63 48.27
45.32 45.67 44 40 40.86 39.50
39.71
34
31.57
29
42.77 41
32
37 3332.57 29.79 2829.65 27 27 27.06 2528.19
31.76
29
28 27.00
23 22.81
21.90
46
26
21.71
20.00 10.00
Papua
Maluku
Sulsel
Sultra
Sulut
Sulteng
Kalsel
Kaltim
NTT
Kalteng
2007
Kalbar
Bali
NTB
DIY
1991
Jatim
Jabar
Jateng
Jakarta
Lampung
Sumsel
Bengkulu
Riau
Jambi
Sumbar
Aceh
0.00
Sumut
Persen (%)
80.00
Source : Prasetyo, Nuryartono 2012
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
5
11/7/2014
Challenges Human resources quality :
IPM (121); compare to Malaysia (64), Thailand (103), Philippina (114), dan Singapura (18) (UNDP, 2013) Competitivenes Index : 38; compare to Singapura (2), Malaysia (24),
Thailand (37) (World Economic Forum, 2014) Asean Economics Community in 2015; Winner or looser ADB report : in Asia Region potentially 11 countries as fast growing
emerging economies will be trapped in middle income trap : Indonesia is one of that.
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
Role of research & innovation
In 2013 predicted GDP Indonesia USD 1,283 Billion with around 0.25% from GDP for R&D Expenditures
Source: The World Bank InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
6
11/7/2014
Opportunity Fiscal Policy reform Demography bonus New Government play a role
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
Thank you very much……..
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
7
11/7/2014
Government Expenditure 350,000.0
300,000.0
250,000.0
200,000.0
150,000.0
100,000.0
50,000.0
0.0 2005
2006
2007
2008
1. Belanja Pegawai 4. Pembayaran Bunga Utang 6. Belanja Hibah
2009 2. Belanja Barang 5 a. Subsidi Energi 7. Bantuan Sosial
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
3. Belanja Modal 5 b. Subsidi Non Energi 8. Belanja Lain-Lain
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
Who’s get what from fuel subsidy?
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
8
11/7/2014
InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
7 November 2014
VISI-MISI AGENDA PRIORITAS EKONOMI Meningkatkan kualitas hidup manusia Indonesia
Meningkatkan produktivitas rakyat dan daya saing di pasar internasional
Mewujudkan kemandirian ekonomi dengan menggerakan sektor-sektor strategis ekonomi domestik
PROGRAM AKSI InterCAFE – International Center for Aplied Finance and Economics
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