Lokakarya Peringatan Hari Sadar Energi Bersih 2011: “Low Carbon City”, diselenggarakan oleh BPLHD Provinsi DKI Jakarta bekerja sama dengan Kementerian ESDM, Jakarta, 25 Mei 2011
Fenomena Perubahan Iklim Global dan Dampaknya terhadap Perkotaan di Indonesia: dikaitkan dengan Energi Bersih Hidayat Pawitan dan Rizaldi Boer Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi FMIPA – IPB Kontak>
[email protected]
Outline Presentasi: Pendahuluan Memahami Fenomena Perubahan Iklim Global Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap Perkotaan di Indonesia Keterkaitan Dampak Perubahan iklim dan Energi Bersih
Penutup Peringatan Hari Bumi – BEM FKH IPB, 23 April 2011
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Pendahuluan The earth’s atmosphere is warming: oceans evaporate more water, and warmer air holds 7% more water vapor for each 1oC of warming. This extra water vapor in the atmosphere returns to earth as heavier rains and snows. Global warming means more heat, but also more wild and potentially dangerous extreme weather.
Climate change and the economic challenge The noted meteorologist and mathematician Edward Lorenz once reminded us that climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. Brian Fagan might add that climate change is what you expect; social and economic collapse leading to violence and massive suffering is what you may expect to get – even with the best planning (James R.Fleming, March 2009)
Common threats: increase demands for food and energy • Population pressure, especially in Java island, need to generate substantial food and energy supply
• degraded natural resources, sea level rise and increased extreme weather events with floods and droughts • decreased water availability and quality • increased pollution and exposure to water- and vector-borne diseases • These management issues had been adopted into the present Water Law (Decree No.7/2004)
PENDAHULUAN • Beberapa pertanyaan perlu dijawab DALAM memahami fenomena perubahan iklim global dan pengaruhnya terhadap pembangunan LOW CARBON SOCIETY
• Bagaimana memahami realita perubahan iklim global dengan Identifikasi/deteksi penyebab dan sumber ketidakpastian? • APA ARTI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL DAN PROYEKSI IKLIM INDONESIA DI MASA MENDATANG?
• Seberapa ‘nyata’ perubahan iklim global memberi dampak terhadap perkotaan di Indonesia? • APA STRATEGI DAN KEBIJAKAN YANG PERLU DIAMBIL?
Memahami Perubahan Iklim Global
CLIMATE 2008
The Paradoxes of CC limits to the greenhouse effect: positive or negative feedbacks? It has been estimated that the earth has warmed by about 1 oF over the last 100 years. However, studies have shown that most of that warming has occurred at night and during the coldest winter months. the surface temperature data using land- and oceanbased thermometers show a warming trend of 0.15 oC per decade. By contrast, weather balloon temperature data show a cooling trend of –0.07, 0.04, or –0.02 oC/decade, depending on which research group is analyzing which weather balloon data. Recently corrected satellite data has produced a slight warming trend of +0.01 oC/decade for the period of 1979 through 1997.
how CC science works? • sains TO PREDICT AND TO MAKE GENERALIZATION from observation and using models
• models TO SIMPLIFY THE REAL WORLD (with lots of assumptions) • model outputs: prescriptive vs prognostic • scenarios: – business as usual – moderate – no regret policy based on Precautionary Principle
Relative contributions to
Greenhouse effect change
PROYEKSI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL • Global average water vapour concentration and precipitation, INCLUDING summer monsoon are projected to increase during the 21st century. • At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases of precipitation over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected. • For a number extreme phenomena, climate models currently lack the spatial detail required to make confident projections. Very small-scale phenomena, such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and lightning, are not simulated in climate models.
Memahami Iklim dan Perubahan Iklim Perlu ‘detection and attribution’ dari karakteristik iklim, termasuk dalam mengevaluasi perubahan iklim Perlu mengenali karakteristik iklim yang memberi dampak pada hewan, manusia dan lingkungan hidup Apa dampak perubahan iklim terhadap lingkungan perkotaan harus dipahami oleh pakar berkompeten dalam bidangnya melalui kajian ilmiah!
Source : Hales et al., Undated.
Dampak Perubahan Iklim Global terhadap Perkotaan di Indonesia
Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14% mostly from soils & livestock
Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation
Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.
Waste 3%
Electricity & Heat Generation Transport Building &other energy Industry related
Energy – 25.6 Gt 61% Consuming fossil fuels
All GHG in CO2 equivalent, 42 Gt CO2e
Buku : Indonesia dan Perubahan Iklim : Status Terkini dan Kebijakan Sumber : Peace & World Bank et al, 2007
Konsentrasi emisi CO2 Indonesia, No 3 (??) GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION
(??)
Buku : Indonesia dan Perubahan Iklim : Status Terkini dan Kebijakan Sumber : Peace & World Bank et al, 2007
Gambar 2. Perbandingan konsentrasi CO2 di stasiun GAW Koto Tabang - Mauna Loa & Rata-rata dunia (sumber BMKG, diproses oleh NOAA).
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Jakarta telah secara signifikan kehilangan daerah hijau, daerah resapan air, danau-danau kecil dan waduk, dan lain-lain akibat konversi guna lahan
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Keterkaitan Dampak Perubahan iklim dan Energi Bersih
The information chain leading to a climate projection
Penutup 1. Fenomena perubahan iklim global disadari telah terjadi dengan indikasi pemanasan global akibat pola konsumsi energi yang intensif khususnya pada daerah padat penduduk di perkotaan 2. Dampak nyata perubahan iklim global terhadap lingkungan perkotaan di Indonesia masih perlu diidentifikasi, walau diketahui telah terjadi gejala pulau panas (urban heat island). 3. Low carbon society merupakan langkah mitigasi emisi GRK yang berpeluang mengurangi gejala urban heat island di perkotaan
Terimakasih
The Precautionary Principle: "When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically. In this context the proponent of an activity, rather than the public, should bear the burden of proof. " The process of applying the Precautionary Principle must be open, informed and democratic and must include potentially affected parties. It must also involve an examination of the full range of alternatives, including no action."
