DAFTAR ISI
i ABSTRAK ................................................................................................................................ ii KATA PENGANTAR ................................................................................................ iv UCAPAN TERIMA KASIH ................................................................................................ vii DAFTAR ISI ............................................................................................................................. DAFTAR TABEL ................................................................................................ ix xi DAFTAR GAMBAR ................................................................................................
BAB I
1 PENDAHULUAN ................................................................................................ 1.1 Latar Belakang Masalah ................................................................ 1 1.2 Perumusan Masalah .............................................................................................. 13 1.3 Tujuan dan Kegunaan Penelitian ................................................................ 14 1.3.1 Tujuan Penelitian........................................................................................... 13 1.3.2 Kegunaan Penelitian ................................................................ 15 1.4 Kerangka Pemikiran ............................................................................................. 15 27 1.5 Hipotesis Penelitian ..............................................................................................
BAB II
28 TINJAUAN PUSTAKA ........................................................................................... 2.1 Kajian Teoritis ................................................................................................ 28 2.1.1 Ekpor ................................................................................................ 28 A. Pengertian Ekspor ................................................................ 28 B. Teori-teori Perdagangan Internasional .......................................................... 30 C. Manfaat Perdagangan Internasional .............................................................. 48 D. Fakktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor ................................ 50 2.1.2 Harga ................................................................................................ 52 2.1.3 Pajak Ekspor ................................................................................................ 63 2.1.4 Nilai Tukar (Kurs) ................................................................ 69 A. Pengertian Nilai tukar ................................................................ 69 B. Perkembangan Teori Kurs ................................................................ 72 C. Kurs dalam Perdagangan Internasional ................................ 74 2.5 Kajian Empirik Beberapa Hasil Penelitian........................................................... 75 vii
BAB III
METODE PENELITIAN ................................................................ 79 79 3.1 Objek Penelitian ................................................................................................ 3.2 Metode Penelitian ................................................................................................ 79 80 3.3 Definisi Operasionalisasi Variabel ................................................................ 3.4 Instrumen Penelitian ............................................................................................. 81 3.5 Sumber dan Jenis Data ................................................................ 82 3.6 Teknik Pengumpulan Data ................................................................ 82 3.7 Prosedur Pengolahan Data ................................................................ 83 3.8 Teknik Analisis Data ............................................................................................ 84 3.8.1 Pengujian Hipotesis ................................................................85 3.8.2 Pengujian Asumsi Klasik ................................................................ 88
BAB IV
HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN ................................ 96 4.1 Analisis Data ................................................................................................ 96 4.1.1 Perkembangan Ekspor Lada Indonesia ................................ 96 4.1.2 Perkembangan Harga Lada Internasional................................ 105 4.1.3 Perkembangan Harga Lada Pesaing ............................................................. 107 4.1.4 Perkembangan Pajak Ekspor ................................................................ 111 4.1.5 Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah .............................................................. 114 4.2 Hasil Penelitian ................................................................................................ 118 4.2.1 Pengujian Model Penelitian ................................................................ 118 4.2.2 Pengujian Hipotesis ................................................................127 4.3 Pembahasan ................................................................................................ 132 4.4 Implikasi Pendidikan ............................................................................................ 151
BAB V
154 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN ................................................................ 5.1 Kesimpulan................................................................................................ 154 5.2 Saran ................................................................................................ 155
DAFTAR PUSTAKA LAMPIRAN RIWAYAT PENULIS viii
DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 1.1
Sumbangan Sektor Pertanian Terhadap PDB atas Dasar Harga Berlaku tahun 1995-2006 ................................................................ 3
Tabel 1.2
Presentase Perkembangan Sumbangan Sektor Pertanian Tahun 1995-2006 ................................................................................................ 4
Tabel 1.3
Perkembangan Neraca Ekspor Komiditi Pertanian tahun 2005-2006 ................................................................................................ 5
Tabel 1.4
Volume Ekspor di Dua Belas Negara Eksportir lada Dunia ................................ 9
Tabel 1.5
Perkembangaan Produksi, Volume Ekspor, dan Nilai Ekspor Lada Indonesia Tahun 1986-2007................................................................ 10
Tabel 2.1
Tahapan IPLC dan Ciri-cirinya ................................................................ 41
Tabel 3.1
Definisi Operasionalisasi Variabel................................................................ 80
Tabel 3.2
Kisi-kisi Instrumen Penelitian ................................................................ 81
Tabel 3.3
Aturan Keputusan Autokorelasi ................................................................ 95
Tabel 3.4
Ketentuan Durbin Watson ................................................................95
Tabel 4.1
Volume Ekspor di Dua Belas Negara Eksportir lada Dunia ................................ 101
Tabel 4.2
Perkembangaan Produksi, Volume Ekspor, dan Nilai Ekspor Lada Indonesia Tahun 1986-2007................................................................ 102
Tabel 4.3
Perkembangan Harga Lada Internasional Tahun 1986-2007 ................................ 106
Tabel 4.4
Perkembangan Harga Lada Sarawak Malaysia di Kuching Tahun 1990-2007 ................................................................................................ 108
Tabel 4.5
Perkembangan Harga Lada Pesaing (Malaysia) Tahun 19862007 ................................................................................................110
Tabel 4.6
Perkembangan Penerimaan Pajak Ekspor Indonesia Tahun 1986-2007 ................................................................................................ 112
Tabel 4.7
Perkembangan Sistem Nilai Tukar Indonesia ................................114
Tabel 4.8
Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Tahun 1986-2007 ................................ 115
Tabel 4.9
Pengujian Model Penelitian ................................................................ 118
Tabel 4.10
Pengujian Model 2 ................................................................................................ 119
Tabel 4.11
Matrik Korelasi Antarvariabel ................................................................ 121
ix
Tabel 4.12
Pengujian Regresi Parsial................................................................121
Tabel 4.13
Uji Linearitas Data Ramsey ................................................................ 123
Tabel 4.14
Pengujian White Heteroskedastisitas ................................................................ 124
Tabel 4.15
Pengujian Autokolerasi ................................................................ 126
Tabel 4.16
Uji t ................................................................................................127
Tabel 4.17
Pengujian Hipotesis Secara Simultan (Uji F ) ................................130
Tabel 4.18
Perbandingan Model Penelitian ................................................................ 132
Tabel 4.19
139 Perbandingan Harga Lada Dunia dan Harga Lada Pesaing ................................
Tabel 4.20
Perbandingan Harga Lada Indonesia dan Harga Lada Malaysia ................................................................................................ 143
Tabel 4.21
Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekspor Lada Indonesia dan 150 Pertumbuhan Nilai Tukar Rupiah ................................................................
x
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1
Kurva Penawaran ................................................................................................ 23
Gambar 1.2
Gambaran Kerangka Pemikiran................................................................ 26
Gambar 2.1
Model Berlian Daya Saing Internasional dari M.Porter ................................ 44
Gambar 2.2
Daya Saing Internasional-Model 9 Faktor daro Dong-sung Cho................................................................................................ 45
Gambar 2.3
Peran Perdagangan Internasional Terhadap Perekonomian Nasional ................................................................................................ 50
Gambar 2.4
Kurva Penawaran ................................................................................................ 57
Gambar 2.5
Grafik Kurva Harga Keseimbangan ................................................................ 59
Gambar 2.6
Efek dari Tarif ................................................................................................ 68
Gambar 3.1
Uji Hipotesis ................................................................................................ 85
Gambar 4.1
Perkembangaan Produksi, Volume Ekspor, dan Nilai Ekspor 103 Lada Indonesia Tahun 1986-2007 ................................................................
Gambar 4.2
Perkembangan Harga Lada Internasional Tahun 1986-2007 ................................ 106
Gambar 4.3
Perkembangan Harga Lada Pesaing (Malaysia) Tahun 19862007 ................................................................................................110
Gambar 4.4
Perkembangan Penerimaan Pajak Ekspor Indonesia Tahun 113 1986-2007 ................................................................................................
Gambar 4.5
Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Tahun 1986-2007 ................................ 115
Gambar 4.6
Uji Normalitas Jarque-Bera ................................................................ 122
Gambar 4.7
Perbandingan Harga Lada Dunia dan Harga Lada Pesaing ................................ 140
Gambar 4.8
Perbandingan Harga Lada Indonesia dan Harga Lada Malaysia................................................................................................ 144
Gambar 4.9
Perbandingan Pertumbuhan Ekspor Lada Indonesia dan Pertumbuhan Nilai Tukar Rupiah ................................................................ 150
xi
