Day 1 Session (1) : what are the drivers of change for Kecamatan Terara’s environment, economy and society. The first step was brainstroming where we gave presentation to stakeholders about some drivers of change for Kecamatan Terara’s environment, economy and society from global scale down to NTB and particulary Kecamatan Terara scale. A brainstroming step conducted with the goal to build stakeholders common understanding of current and historic trends and events of global, NTB and particularly Kecamatan Terara’s situation and problem analysis. Particularly for drivers of change for Kecamatan Terara’s environment, presentation was emphasised on current NTB and Terara climate variability and change (by Bureau of Meteorology, Climatology and Biophysics – Kediri Station staff) and sea level rise projections in NTB (by CSIRO staff). A common understanding of the current status of Kecamatan Terara’s environment, economy and society is essential for next step which is to identify some important internal and external factors that will affect community achieving the desired future for Kecamatan Terara livelihood (vision). The next step consists of identifying and listing the drivers of change for Kecamatan Terara and ranking them by importance. This activities were done in working groups assisted by team collaborative (four working groups, each group consist of 7 to 11 person which consists of Lombok Timur district government officers, head of villages, local NGOs staff (Lenper and Yayasan Al Kahfi). From this activity we got number of driver of change which include natural resources, human resources, physic, economy, socio-culture, and climate (Table 1). Table 1. Group of drivers of change No. Category Driver of change 1 Natural resources Availability of sophisticated agricultural technology is increase Low land ownership average High agricultural land conversion Availability of agricultural product processing manufactory Good quality of virhinia tobacco Clean water accesscibility is low Cattle brreding is low Irregular cropping pattern Clean water is available Tobacco planting ncrease High timber logging Environmental destruction Household inceneration is high Straw burning is high High chemical fertilizer use
2.
Physic
3.
Human
4.
Economic
5.
Socio-culture
6.
Climate
Use of firewood for tobacco oven is high Agricultural land conversion is high Traditional irrigation system Infrastructure development is distributed evenly Floating market Road infrastructure is poor Pandan Dure dam construction Agricultural irrigation is available Multifunction of Pandan Dure dam People motivation to move forward is high Good quality of human resources Dense population Use of alcohol is high Better youth empowerment Better formal and informal education Betteri health infrastructure and facility Low sex ratio Community awareness and concern is low Low community health More develop education and skill Better health services High working attitude Better health facilities Woman role suffieciently high Population increase Woman participation is low High unemployment High number of poverty Public figure and religious figure not yet optimal Low education High remittance Economis supporting infrastructure is available Woman cooperative already developed Wide open market opportunity Home industry to increase income Low income percapita Cooperative that have been developed Economy improved Purchasing power of community is high Amount of ONH payment in Terara is high Poligamy High divorce Security is relatively conducive Mutual assistance need to be maintained Woman who giving birth help by healer is already low Climate uncertainty Low rainfall
Session (2): what are the possible futures for Kecamatan Terara livelihood in 2030, 2060 and 2090? The identification of different future state for Kecamatan Terara livelihood (visioning) in terms of COWBes (Constituents of well-being): income, health, food security, social cohesion and freedom of choice was the next stage which aiming is to develop written statements of Terara community’s long term goals (2090). In four working groups discussion assisted by team collaborative, we asked them to develop a shared future vision for Kecamatan Terara livelihood using written statement technique. By asking the group where they are now and where they can realistically expect to be in the future, the group expected being able to develop a vision together. The results from the session 1 (Terara situation and problem analysis) have help the stakeholders to define (where are we now?). The outcomes of the visioning activity describe their statement (where we want to be?). Terara future vision 2090 agreed upon participant is : The realisation physical and spiritual prosperity of Terara society. The next step was selecting and describing two most important drivers for kecamatan Terara’s livelihood (Picture 1). To help them, we use central board material to explain 2x2 matrix and describe drivers so the output was two major drivers selected and described by stakeholders. A reduction of these drivers to two drivers helps to keep the number of possible scenario low. As for the ranking groups of drivers by importance voting, stakeholders have comprises two important drivers of change. The first, they take into account of climate (rain intensity, temperature, period of drought and average wind speed). The second driver of change is human resources (population, education, science and technology). The drivers of change are depicted as axes and later on 4 scenarios plotted on them.
Picture 1. Two most important drivers of change for Kecamatan Terara livelihood. Once two most important driving force have been identified and the vision was developed, they can be used to structure a set of narratives and guide scenario development. The results from this activities then combined in order to come up with the main storylines of different scenarios. Next step was introducing them into scenario planning idea, from this stakeholders were then assissted to developed a scenario descriptive narratives and pictures for Kecamatan Terara livelihood in 2090 using COWBes indicators (Constituents of well-being) : income, health, food security, social cohesion and freedom of choice and also identifying adaptation strategies needed to meet desired future, one working group per scenario. Stakeholders then developed a descriptive narrative for each scenario, with datas from presentation and /or their local knowledge. In developing narrative of scenarios, stakeholders were able to characterise the value, conditions and drivers of their scenario in a way that gave them a perspectives of the whole system and gave them greater understanding of pertinent issues covered by the vision. Each group then presented their scenario to the plenary forum.
Scenario 1 “Prosperous family in the year 2090’ This is the best scenario of all four and an optimistic vision of the future Kecamatan Terara livelihood, which will be marked by best natural and human resources condition. People are living in very prosperous condition. High human resources quality has made them aware and able to live a sustainable living through developing integrated agricultural strategies. This then supported by central goverment regulation and desa’s goverment by producing local regulation (awiq-awiq) on environmental to combat global warming.
Scenario 2 “ Genius” This scenario will be marked by low natural resources and high human resources. Population are under control, balanced sex ratio, and zero divorce rate. Genius human resources are able to develop conservation strategies to deal with natural resources barriers. People are aware with sustainable resources management to solve economic, environmental, and social problems including gender equity.
Scenario 3 “Misery bring enjoyment” This scenario is will be marked by low human and natural resources condition. Low human resources quality has made them unaware and unable to live a sustainable living. People live in poor condition. Set of strategies developed are : education to increase human resources quality and skill, providing financial assistance and creating new job opportunities for economic development, and environmental conservation.
Scenario 4 “Enjoyment bring misery” This scenario based on low human resources but high natural resources condition. People live in poor condition and unable to manage their rich natural resources in sustainable manner. Set of strategies developed are : education to increase human resources quality in managing its natural resources. This then supported by political right by central goverment and increasing role of public and community figures at lower level. Session (3): what affect will these futures have on Kecamatan Terara livelihoods? This session begin with the introducing stakeholders to the NTB Provincial scale of livelihood typologies then followed by presentation of livelihood typology for Kecamatan Terara scale which include in typlogy 5 paddy and tobacco and its EGS (Ecosystem Goods and Services) list. The potential impact (2030) of some driver of change (natural and human induced drivers) would have on each EGS and on COWBes (Constituents of well-being) indicators : income, health, food security, social cohesion, and freedom of choice is then presented to deepen the stakeholder understanding of the relationship between those components and rationale undermine case study selection.
Day 2. Session (4): adaptive capacity for current Kecamatan Terara Livelihoods What affect these future have on Kecamatan Terara livelihoods conducted by impact modelling approach. For modelling purposes stakeholders are asked to Typology 1, EGS Potential Impact , 2030 (top 30) weight of each EGS in relationships to its importance to four COWBes (Constituents Potential Impact of well-being) indicators : income, health, food security, and social cohesion by using -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 score (1-5) assisting by team collaborative. We got the EGS weighted by importance Perairan dangkal/pantai, Ikan dangkal… to COWBes as an outputPerairan (Picture 6). Impact modelling result then used to define the dalam, Perikanan laut dalam… most impacted desas in Kecamatan (Picture 7). Lahan basah,Terara Produkksi beras Pantai, Tambak udang Lahan kering, Sirsap Lahan kering, Sapi Lahan kering, Nenas Lahan kering, Bawang putih Lahan basah, Bawang merah Hutan, Kopi EGS Potential Impact , 2030 Terara, Terara, Weighted EGS COWBe Importance Terumbu karang, Ikan terumbu karang Potential Impact Weighted CoWBe Importance (%) Pantai, Hutan bakau untuk kayu -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0 5 10 15 Perairan dangkal/pantai, Budidaya mutiara Lahan kering,Lahan Pertambangan pasir Lahan basah, Produkksi beras basah, Produkksi beras Pantai, Tambak Bandeng Lahan kering, Ayam Lahan kering, Ayam Lahan basah, Tembakau Air minum Lahan basah, Tembakau Air bawah tanah, Lahan basah, Tembakau Air bawah tanah, Air untuk irigasi (water) Sungai, mata air, Air untuk irigasi (water)Sungai, mata Lahan Sayuran air,basah, Air untuk irigasi (water) Pantai, Wisata alam Lahan kering, Sapi Lahan kering, Sapi Lahan kering, Kacang hijau udang Lahan basah, Kedele Lahan basah, Tambak Lahan basah, Kedele Lahan kering, Asem Lahan basah, Jagung Lahan basah, Jagung Lahan basah, Ubi jalar Sungai, mata air, Air untuk irigasi (water) Air bawah tanah, Air minum Air bawah tanah, Air minum Sungai, mata air, Air minum Hutan, Pisang Hutan, Pisang Lahan kering, Ubikayu Terumbu karang, Bahan bangunan … Lahan basah, Ubi jalar Lahan basah, Ubi jalar Perairan dangkal/pantai, Rumput laut Sungai, mata air, Air minum Hutan, Kelapa Sungai, mata air, Air minum
Lahan basah, Tomat
LahanSuhu basah, Tomat
Lahan basah, Bebek
Lahan basah, Bebek Curah hujan
Hutan, Botan, Bambu
muka air laut Hutan,Kenaikan Botan, Bambu
Lahan kering, Mangga
Peningkatan keasaman Lahan kering, Mangga
Lahan basah, Cabe
Hutan, Kelapa Lahan kering, Ubikayu
Penggunaan sumberdayaalam
Lahan basah, Cabe
Penggunaan lahan
Hutan, Kelapa
Pencemaran
Lahan kering, Ubikayu Air bawah tanah, Air untuk irigasi (water) Air bawah tanah, Air untuk irigasi (water) Lahan kering, Kambing Lahan kering, Kambing
Suhu
Curah hujan Kenaikan muka air laut Peningkatan keasaman Penggunaan sumberdayaalam Penggunaan lahan
0.1
Rarang
Jenggik
Rarang selatan
Santong
Suradadi
Terara
Kalianyar (Sukadana)
Rarang tengah (Rarang)
Lando (Jenggik)
Embung kandong (Rarang selatan)
Rarang Bates (Rarang selatan)
Embung raja (Santong)
Leming (Suradadi)
Selagik (Suradadi)
Pandan dure (Terara)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
-1.0
Terara, Weighted EGS COWBe Importance
-0.8
Potential Impact -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
Perairan dangkal/pantai, Ikan dangkal… CoWBe Importance (%) Perairan dalam,Weighted Perikanan laut dalam… 0 basah, Produkksi 5 beras 10 Lahan Pantai, Tambak udang Lahan kering, Sirsap Lahan basah, Produkksi beras Lahan kering, Sapi Lahan kering, Nenas Lahan kering, Ayam Lahan kering, Bawang putih Lahan basah, Tembakau Lahan basah, Bawang merah Hutan, Kopi Sungai, mata air, Air untuk irigasi (water) Terumbu karang, Ikan terumbu karang Pantai, Hutan bakau untuk kayu Lahan kering, PerairanSapi dangkal/pantai, Budidaya mutiara Lahan kering, Pertambangan pasir Lahan basah, Kedele Pantai, Tambak Bandeng Lahan basah, Tembakau Lahan basah, Jagung Air bawah tanah, Air minum Air bawah tanah, Air untuk irigasi (water) Air bawah tanah, Air minum Lahan basah, Sayuran Pantai, Wisata alam Hutan, Pisang Lahan kering, Kacang hijau Lahan basah, Ubi jalar Lahan basah, Tambak udang Lahan kering, Asem Lahan basah, Ubi jalar Sungai, mata air, Air minum Sungai, mata air, Air untuk irigasi (water) Lahan basah, Tomat Sungai, mata air, Air minum Lahan kering, Ubikayu Terumbu karang, Bahan bangunan… Lahan basah, Bebek Perairan dangkal/pantai, Rumput laut Hutan, Kelapa Hutan, Botan, Bambu
Lahan kering, Mangga Lahan basah, Cabe
Hutan, Kelapa Lahan kering, Ubikayu Air bawah tanah, Air untuk irigasi (water)
Curah hujan
0.2
0.4
X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Suhu
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X
X
Kenaikan muka air laut
Peningkatan keasaman Penggunaan sumberdayaalam Penggunaan lahan
Pencemaran
Lahan kering, Kambing
15
Sukadana
Typology 1, EGS Potential Impact , 2030 (top 30)
X
X
X X
X X
X
X
X X
To define the adaptive capacity of each desa to these potential impact that would have on its livelihoods, on four working group stakeholders than assisted to identify adaptive capacity indicators (Table 2) and vote for adaptive capacity for each desa and its descriptions (Table 3) Table 2. Adaptice capacity indicators for Kecamatan Terara livelihood No. Capital Indicators 1. Human 1. Controlled population growth 2. Balanced sex ratio 3. Human development index high 4. Maternal and child health level increase 5. Woman participation increase 6. Formal education level increase 7. Small scale enterprise training 8. Community participation increase 2. Natural 1. Controlled agricultural land conversion 2. Replanting program increase 3. Superior product from Terara develop 4. Sustainable water resources 3. Economy 1. Tobbaco/industry good 2. Access to global market open 3. Remittance high 4. Woman cooperation develop 5. Home industry increase 6. Financial assistance for business group 4. Physic 1. Village road good 2. Irrigation (embung) 3. Education and health infrastructure and facility 4. Settlement good 5. Market good 5. Socio-culture 1. Woman participation high 2. Clean and healthy lifestyle 3. Persalinan didukun berkurang 4. Mutual assistance sustain 5. Local regulation (awiq-awiq) exist 6. Divorced rate low 7. Eradication of alcohol and drug users 6. Politic 1. Use of agricultural techonology high 2. Number of embung increase 3. Irrigation facilities increase 4. Education and health infrastructures increase
Tabel 3. Adaptive capacity for each desa and its descriptions No
Desa names
Votes low adaptive capacity
1 2 3
Sukadana Rarang Jenggik
1 1 1
4
Rarang selatan
5
5
Santong
1
6
Suradadi
1
7
Terara
2
8 9
Kalianyar (Sukadana) Rarang tengah (Rarang)
0 5
Descriptions
1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Low socio-cultural Alcohol drinker and gambling high No market available Gambling high Low clean and healthy lifestyle Low security level Low mutual assistance Slum houses high Rainfed area Low education level High poverty level No financial institution Low security level Low health level Market, health and road facilities & infrastructures not good 8. Low water access 9. Political capability is still low 10. Low paddy production 1. District and village roads very bad 2. Poor village 3. Low education level 4. Mostly dryland and cropping pattern has not been good 5. Low security level 6. Slum houses high 7. Irrigation infrastructure condition very bad 8. Low health facilities 1. Low land ownership 2. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 3. Dense population 4. No market available 5. Low security level 6. High poverty level 1. High poverty level 2. Low education level 3. Insecure livelihood 4. Low land ownership 5. Financial institution have not been managed well 6. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 7. Low mutual assistance 8. High alcohol & gambling 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7
Rainfed area Low education level High poverty rate No economic institution Low security level Low health level Market, health and road facilities &
10
Lando (Jenggik)
6
11
Embung kandong (Rarang selatan)
5
12
Rarang Bates (Rarang selatan)
5
13
Embung raja (Santong)
3
14
Leming (Suradadi)
8
infrastructures not good 8 Low water access 9 Political capability is still low 10 Low paddy production 1. High poverty level 2. Limited roads infrastructure 3. High slum houses 4. District highway very bad 5. No market available 6. No sports facilities 7. Low human resources 8. Rainfed area 9. Limited irrigation channel 10. Traditional cropping pattern 11. Low security level 12. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 13. Alcohol producer 14. No source for drinking water 1. Rainfed area 2. Low education level 3. High poverty level 4. No financial institution 5. Low security level 6. Low health level 7 Market, health and road facilities & infrastructures not good 7. Low water access 8. Political capability is still low 9. Low paddy production 1. Rainfed area 2. Low education level 3. Low poverty level 4. No financial institution 5. Low security level 6. Low health level 7. Market, health and road facilities & infrastructures not good 8. Low water access 9. Political capability is still low 10. Low paddy production 1. Low land ownership 2. Low natural resources 3. High land conversion/will be submerged by dam construction 4. High slum houses 5. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 6. Low human resources 7. Limited security 8. Road infrstructure very bad 9. Jalan usaha tani tidak ada 10. Irrigation infrastructure very bad 1. Low land ownership 2. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 3. Dense population 4. No market available 5. Low security level
6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 15
Selagik (Suradadi)
8
16
Pandan dure (Terara)
5
High poverty level Road facilities very ba No health facilities avaliable Bad irrigation channel High sex ratio (more women because of migrant labour) 1. Low land ownership 2. Low clean and healthy lifestyle 3. Dense population 4. No market available 5. Low security level 6. High poverty level 7. Dryland/rainfed area 8. Low mutual assistance culture 9. Low education level 10. Slum environment 11. No health facilities available 12. Road facilities very bad 1. Low land ownership 2. Low clean and health lifestyle 3. Dense population 4. No market available 5. Low security level 6. High poverty level 7. High land conversion due to dam construction
Session (5): the most vulnerable aspect of Kecamatan Terara livelihood Insert...... Session (6): adaptation strategies, and priority policy for Kecamatan Terara livelihood
