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Adriani, D. 2000. Dampak Kebijakan Pemerintah Terhadap Keragaan Pasar dan Migrasi Pada Periode Krisis Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Baltagi, B. H. 1999. Econometrics. Second Edition. Springer, New York. Beamount, P. M. 1990. Supply and Demand Interaction in Integrated Econometric and Input-Output Models. International Regional Science Review 13(1-2): 167181. BPS. 2000. Kerangka Teori Dan Analisis Tabel Input Output. Biro Pusat Stastistik, Jakarta. Branson, W. H. and J. M. Litvack. 1981. Macroeconomics. Second Edition. Harper & Row Inc., New York. Brodjonegoro, B. 1997. The Econometric Input-Output Model of Jakarta, Indonesia, And Its Applications for Economic Impact Analysis. Ph.D. Thesis. Not Published. University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Budiasih. 2001. Pengaruh Beberapa Variabel Fiskal dan Moneter Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Tesis Master Ekonomi. Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. Conway, R. S. 1979. Simulation Properties of A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. Paper of the Regional Science Association 43: 45-57. Conway, R. S. 1991. An Empirical Comparison of Regional Multiplier, Di dalam J.H.Ll. Dewhurst, G.J.D Hewings and R.C. Jensen. Regional Input-Output Modelling: New Development and Interpretations. Avebury, Aldershot. Coomes, P., D. Olson and D. Glennon. 1991. The Interindustry Employment Demand Variable: An Extension of The I-SAMIS Technique for Linking Input-Output and Econometric Models. Environment and Planning A 23: 1063-1068. Crow, R. T. 1973. A Nationally-Linked Regional Econometric Model. Journal of Regional Science 13(2): 187-204. Dabukke, F. B. M. 2000. Dampak Kebijakan Makroekonomi Terhadap Kinerja Pasar Komoditas Pangan Utama Indonesia. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Dewhurst, J. H. L1 and G.R. West. 1991. Conjoining Regional and Inter-Regional Input-Output Models With Econometric Models. Di dalam J. H. L1. Dewhurst, G. J. D. Hewings and R. C. Jensens. Regional Input-Output Modelling: New Developments and Interpretations. Avebury, Aldershot.
Galbraith, J. K. and W. Jr. Darity. 1994 Macroeconomics. Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston. Glennon D. and J. Lane. 1990. Input-Output Restrictions, Regional Structural, Models and Econometric Forecast. In L. Anselin and M. Madden, New Directions in Regional Analysis. Belhaven, London. Fair, R. C. 1994. Testing Macroeconometric Models. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England. Firdaus, M. 1998. Peran Sektoral Ekonomi Indonesia Pada Fase Industrialisasi: Analisis Input Output. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Hanani Ar, N. 2000. Model Mikro-Makroekonomi Indonesia: Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan Menghadapi Era Liberalisasi Perdagangan. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Hewings, G. J. D., P. R. Israilevich, M. Sonis and G. Schindler. 1995. Structural Change in A Metropolitan Economy: The Chicago Region, 1975-2010. Discussion Paper. Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois, USA. Hulu, E. 1992. Kinerja Hubungan Ekonomi Indonesia-Jepang Berdasarkan Analisa Bilateral Input-Output. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia 40(2): 147-163. Hulu, E. 1996. Teknik Iterasi Penyelesaian Model Multisektor Dinamis. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia 44(4):297-3 19. Isdijoso, B. 1992. Model Ekonomi Makro dan Keterkaitan Sektor Pertanian di Indonesia. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Intriligator, M. D. 1978. Econometric Model, Techniques and Applications. Prentice Hall, Inc., New Jersey. Israilevich, P. R. and R. Mahidara. 1991. Hog Butchers No Longer: 20 Years of Employment Change in Metropolitan Chicago. Economic Perspectives 15: 213. Isralevich, P. R., G. J. D. Hewings, G. Schindler, and R. Mahidhara. 1996. Forecasting Structural Change With A Regional Econometric Input-Output Model. Discussion Paper. Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois, USA. Joun, R. Y. P. and R. S. Conway. 1983. Regional Economic-Demographic Forecasting Models: A Case Study of The Washington And Hawaii Models. SocioEconomic Planning Sciences 17: 345-353. Klein, L. R. 1989. Econometric Aspects of Input-Output Analysis. In Miller, K. R. Polenske, and A.Z. Rose, Frontiers of Input-Output Analysis. Oxford University Press Inc., New York.
Kosuge, N. 1999. The BappenasITSK Annual Macro Econometric Model. Bappenas, Jakarta. Koutsoyiannis, A. 1977. Theory of Econometrics. Second Edition. Harper and Row Publisher Inc., New York. Miller, R. E. 1985. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions. PrenticeHall,Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. Moghadam, K. and K. P. Ballard. 1987. Small Area Modelling of The Industrial Sector (SAMIS): An Integrated Econometric - Interindustry Approach. Environment and Planning A 20: 655-668. Nazara, S. 1997. Analisis Input Output. Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. Nota Keuangan dan Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara tahun Anggaran 2002. Republik Indonesia. Pindyck, R. S. and D. L. Rubinfeld. 1991. Econometric Models and Enonomic Forecasts. Third Edition, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York. Rey, S. J. 1995. The Performance of Alternative Integration Strategies for Combinin Regional Econometric and Input-Output Models. Paper presented at 42" Annual North American Meeting of the Regional Science Association International. Cincinnati, Ohio.
5
Rey, S. J. 1996. Coefficient Change In Embedded Econometric And Input-Output Models. Paper presented at 43rd Annual North American Meeting of the Regional Science Association International, Arlington. Safrida. 1999. Darnpak Kebijakan Upah Minimum dan Makroekonomi Terhadap Laju Inflasi, Kesempatan Kerja Serta Keragaan Permintaan dan Penawaran Agregat. Tesis Magister Ssins. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Simbolon, R. 1990. Analisa Keterkaitan Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian dan Tampilan (Performance) Sektor hdustri Pada Pendapatan Nasional Dengan Mempergunakan Model Makro Ekonomi. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Sipayung, T. 2000. Pengaruh Kebijakan Makroekonomi Terhadap Sektor Pertanian Dalam Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Siregar, M. 1993. Income and Employment Impact of lndonesian Agricultural Sectors. Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia 41(4): 425-440. Sitompul, P. P. 1990. Analisis Keterkaitan Antar Sektor Dalam Perekonomian Indonesia Tahun 1971 - 1985. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Sonis, M., G. J. D. Hewings, J. Guo, P. R. Israilevich and G. Schindler. 1996. The Hollowing-Out Process in the Chicago Economy, 1975-2010. Discussion Paper. Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois, USA.
'
Sulistyaningsih, E. 1997. Darnpak Perubahan Struktur Ekonomi terhadap Struktur Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Indonesia 1980-2019: Suatu Pendekatan InputOutput. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Supartinah, I. 1999. Dampak Kebijakan Makroekonomi Terhadap Inflasi dan Pendapatan Nasional di Indonesia: Suatu Analisis Simulasi. Tesis Magister Sains. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Todaro, M.P.1998. Pembangunan Ekonomi Di Dunia Ketiga (Terjemahan). Edisi Keenam. Penerbit Erlangga, Jakarta. Verbeek, M. 2000. A Guide To Modem Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., England. Widjaja, A. 2000. Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Indonesia: Model Makroekonometrika. Disertasi Doktor. Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Yap, J. T. and Y. Nakamura. 1990. Asean Link An Econometric Study. First Edition. Longman Inc., Singapore.
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Definisi Operasional Variabel MIENA No.
Deskripsi
Variabel
Satuan
I
PDB
Produk Domestik bruto HK 93
Miliar Rp.
2
CONS
Total Konsumsi HK 93
Miliar Rp.
3
CM
Konsumsi Makanan HK 93
Miliar Rp.
4
CNM
Konsumsi Non Makanan HK 93
Miliar Rp.
5
I
Total Investasi HK 93
Miliar Rp.
6
G-'
Pengeluaran Pemerintah HK 93
Miliar Rp.
7
X
Total Ekspor Barang dan Jasa HK 93
Miliar Rp.
8
XMGS
Ekspor Minyak dan Gas
Miliar US $
9
XMNF
Ekspor Industri Manufaktur
Miliar US $
10
XPRM
Eskpor Komoditi Primer
Miliar US S
11
XLAIN
Ekspor Barang Lainnya
Miliar US $
12
XTOT
Total Ekspor Barang
Miliar US $
13
FKX
Faktor Koreksi Ekspor
14
M
Total Impor Barang dan Jasa HK 93
Miliar Rp.
15
MBK
Impor Barang Konsumsi
Miliar US $
16
MBB
lmpor Bahan Baku
Miliar US $
17
MBM
lmpor Barang Modal
Miliar US $
18
MTOT
Total lmpor Barang
Miliar US $
19 FKM
Faktor Koreksi Impor
20
1x01 - 1x20
Output Sektor 01 - 20 HK 93
Miliar Rp.
21
IXTOT
Total Output HK 93
Miliar Rp.
22
I20 1 - 1220
Dugaan Output Sektor 0 1 - 20
Miliar Rp.
23
IZTOT
Total Dugaan Output HK 93
Miliar Rp.
24
IN01 - IN20
Tenaga Kerja Sektor 01 - 20
Ribu Orang
25
INTOT
Total Tenaga Kerja
Ribu Orang Ribu Orang
26
UNEMP
Total Pengangguran
27
UNEMPR
Laju Rata-rata Pengangguran
28
LABF
Angkatan Kerja
Ribu Orang
29
POP
Jumlah Penduduk Indonesia
Juta Orang
30
IY01 - IY20
Pendapatan Sektor 01 -20 HK 93
Miliar Rp.
31
IYTOT
Total Pendapatan HK 93
Miliar Rp.
32
IY
Pendapatan Personal HK 93
Miliar Rp.
33
IYOTH
Pendapatan Lainnya HK 93
Miliar Rp.
34
GDY
Tingkat Pendapatan HK 93
Miliar Rp.
35
CDEF
Deflator Konsumsi HK 93
%
36
GDEF
Deflator Pengeluaran Pemerintah HK 93
%
37
IDEF
Deflator Investasi HK 93
%
38
XDEF
Deflator Eskpor HK 93
%
39
MDEF
Deflator Impor HK 93
%
40
PDBDEF
Deflator PDB HK 93
%
41
IHKINA
Indeks Harga Konsumen Indonesia HK 93
?6
42
IHKJPN
Indeks Harga Konsumen Jepang HK 93
%
%
No.
Satuan
43 IHKUSA
Indeks Harga Konsumen Amerika Serikat HK 93
%
44 IHKW
Indeks Harga Konsumen Dunia HK 93
8
Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan Indonesia
8
46 IRJPN
Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan Jepang
96
47 IRUSA
Suku Bunga Deposito 3 Bulan Amerika Serikat
%
48 ERUS
Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat
49 ERJPN
Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Yen Jepang
50 YENUS
Nilai Tukar Yen Jepang Terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat
Yen/US $
Nilai Tukar Ril Efektif Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat
Rp.RIS $
45
51
IRlNA
RERUS
52 RERJPN
Nilai Tukar Ril Efektif Rupiah Terhadap Yen Jepang
Rp.lUS $ Rp.1100 Yen
Rp.llOO Yen
Harga Minyak dan Gas
US$/kg
54 PXMNF
Harga Barang Industri Manufaktur
US$lkg
55 PXPRM
Harga Komoditi Primer
US$/kg
56 PXLAIN
Harga Barang Lainnya
57 POIL
Harga Rata-rata Minyak Dunia
US$/Barel
58 PDBUSA
Produk Domestik Bruto Amerika Serikat HK 93
Miliar US%
59 PDBJPN
Produk Domestik Bruto Jepang HK 93
Miliar Yen
Produk Domestik Bruto Dunia HK 93
Miliar US%
53
PXMGS
60 PDBW
US$lkg
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Pertanian HK 93
RP.
62 WMININC
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Tambang dan Penggalian HK 93
RP.
63 WMANUF
61
,
Deskripsi
VariPbel
WACRI
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Industri Manufaktur HK 93
RP.
64 WLGA
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor List, Gas dan Air Minum HK 93
RP.
65 WCONS
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Bangunan HK 93
RP.
66 WTRADE
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Perdag, Hotel dan Rest HK 93
RP.
67 WTRANS
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sektor Pengangkutan dan Kom HK 93
RP.
68 WSERV
Upah Minimum Bulanan Sek:or Jasa HK 93
Up.
Lampiran 2. Komponen Permintaan Akhir Tahun 1980 - 2000
(Miliar Rp) TAHUN 1980
PDB 151 299
CONS 85881
CM 53 618
CNM 32305
G 14 565
I 40 149
GDEV 5441
GI 23028
PI 17 120
CDEF
IDEF
XDEF
(5)
(%)
A
MDEF
PDBDEF (%)
GDY
32.2
23.6
30.7
63012
26 362
34.4
25.4
33.5
30.7
33.1
167310
65 629
28 4Ml
35.5
25.5
34.2
31.5
35.7
I701M
70 066
24 OYY
41.7
38.4
43.1
37.4
40.9
I 8 0 248
73 060
21 876
47.9
45.4
55.9
43.4
47.2
196 303
74 382
23 030
54.1
46.2
57.9
45.4
50.1
I99467
78 019
22 142
54.8
40.5
44.9
4 1.o
48.3
216715
80 569
16 802
56.1
54.7
58.0
53.1
55.9
227 892
83 282
17 494
57.2
M.1
67.0
73.4
60.2
231 356
86 450
17 864
63.7
75.2
76.8
84. I
65.7
248521
94 600
23 6x3
69.8
76.2
90.9
86.0
71.9
275219
w 534
25 OX4
75.0
84.5
89.7
87.6
7X.2
292 537
29.3
30.0
153 468
100215
25 605
83.0
9 1.9
95.4
93.6
83.9
311163
103 486
27 355
100.0
100.0
l(10.0
10m.0
100.0
329 776
121 407
28 699
IOI.9
IO5.0
104.3
102.4
107.8
356 478
144 161
25 856
11.3
113.2
114.5
1 10.2
118.4
387 832
149 064
28 123
127.2
121.5
122.4
1 15.5
128.7
420432
I64 XXX
27 104
135.5
I39 3
144.3
I263
144.9
450 5 16
202.X
183.8
159 507
32 W 7
375.8
312.0
253.9
403 938
175 243
37 440
424.0
384.0
292.4
389 130
177 287
25 154
465.3
426.8
324.6
407 3 M
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan (Miliar US $1
Lampiran 3. Output Aktual Sektoral Tahun 1980 - 2000
Tahun 1980
1x01 9 590
1x02 3 958
1x03 8 094
1x04 11 242
1x05 134
1x10 26 535 24113 25 542 25 962 30 959 35 877 48911 50016 51 482 52 829 54 427 61 007 67989 75 978 86 431 98 408 122 799 142 537 134 850 147390 154 653
(Miliar Rp) 1x11 36 061 33081 35 373 36 297 41 023 45 059 65401 71203 78 030 85 248 93 507 105 685 118764 133 826 153 507 176 237 163 355 140 844 98 976 120713 132 644
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan Tahun 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1x13 2 667 2 772 2 888 3 793 4 064 4 362 3 319 4 193 5 084 6 284 8 103 8 589 8 578 8 542 8 698 9 164 9 835 10 440 10 337 11 505 11 961
1x14 22 748 25 573 25 467 31 516 33 239 36 597 36 612 38 910 43 249 49 498 57 104 61 994 66 585 72 186 80 208 88 026 94 664 96 943 59 792 68 777 73 765
1x15 21 769 23 449 21 940 25 030 26 150 27 127 27 529 29 698 32 388 36 367 39 044 42 993 48 041 54 333 60 242 67 841 75 349 82 140 69 882 70 558 71 978
1x16 8 529 10 475 11 619 10 381 12 298 13 523 16 555 17 547 19 498 21620 23 452 25 930 28 532 31466 35 833 39 833 38 565 36 099 27 355 30 437 32 480
1x17 15 641 16 907 18275 19 754 21 675 20 893 21 865 24 220 26 640 31233 35 709 38 503 42 053 45758 49 124 53 058 56 012 58 229 48 845 54 169 59 186
1x18 9 641 12 195 ' 11977 13 381 16 836 18 670 23 901 25 507 26 615 29 873 33 297 39 279 46 108 54 181 63 660 75 739 67 829 60 697 38 270 33 776 36 736
1x19 7 154 8 545 9 062 13 276 14 158 15 054 15 435 16 655 17 945 19 174 20090 20 967 21 719 22 229 22 607 24918 23 193 23 277 21 767 23 490 23 676
1x20 13 674 13 146 12 638 12 150 14 394 16 290 17 280 19 109 21149 24 035 26808 29 535 32978 37 236 40 876 45674 38 566 32723 26 675 29 031 29365
(Miliar Rp) IXTOT 249 322 258 230 255 802 279 482 309 908 332 283 378 526 403014 432260 470 973 512130 564 354 619049 679 281 752676 841099 857 869 851512 701 295 771 048 813 158
Larnpiran 4. Output Dugaan ~ e k t o r iTahun l 1980 - 2000 (Miliar Rp)
Tahun
IZOl
IZ02
IZ03
IZ04
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
5 052 4 647 4 930 5 025 5 949 6 849 9 226 9 438 9 720 9 987 10 291 11 500 12 810 14 274 16 184 18 400 22822 26382 24935 27 250 28588
2 850 3 077 3 252 3 413 3 689 3 942 4 634 4 781 4 942 5 161 5 542 6 044 6 475 7 010 7769 8900 10229 11321 10485 11 140 11642
4 396 5 111 5 381 5 670 5 976 6 132 6 626 6 875 7 180 7 529 8 192 8 880 9 326 9 967 10958 12668 13749 14623 13520 14 301 14879
4 328 4 096 4 202 4 328 4 910 5 445 7 152 7 445 7 733 8 067 8 476 9 530 10 602 11 786 13371 15230 17475 19095 17526 18 788 19906
IZO5 704 724 696 727 774 807 816 855 902 942 974 1013 1091 1 134 1 176 1 269 1253 1 223 1162 1 289 1 340
IZ06
IZ07
6 972 8 030 8 333 8 748 9 522 10212 11030 11 449 12 007 12 679 13 786 15 215 16534 18 141 20 276 23 389 24330 24 992 21626 23 720 25 281
2 206 2 213 2 288 2 450 2 588 2 830 3 589 3 838 4 108 4 513 5 048 5 546 6 069 6 697 7 523 8 479 8 328 7 850 5 542 6 175 6 701
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Tahun 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
IZ12 8 069 8 239 7 765 8 446 8 805 8 744 9 852 10 924 11 462 12 567 13 670 15 507 17 142 18 422 20 339 22 412 23 71 1 24 779 23 390 20 715 22 809
I213 2590 2 829 2927 3 185 3 482 3 703 4 044 4 360 4724 5 183 5 792 6 335 6 787 7 350 8 098 9 164 9374 9 423 8124 8804 9238
I214 27146 30 729 35 196 37 769 33 295 36 968 47 942 48 314 46112 52 208 62 652 64 886 69 038 74 765 80 844 88 026 91724 96 821 60202 47571 51 617
IZ15 22015 24 043 24610 26 622 27 509 28 724 32 603 34 393 35705 38 477 42 635 46 767 50 285 54 273 60020 67 841 72379 75 723 64639 64064 68 371
I216 14 015 15 818 16 026 17 375 18300 18670 20 125 21 276 22182 23 454 25 528 27 969 29 639 31 656 34723 39 833 42613 45 095 42069 41958 44105
IZ17 16994 18146 18 366 19552 20512 21 161 24 669 26 287 27391 29 613 32 408 35 870 39 086 42 487 47 087 53 058 55414 57 030 50072 49111 52641
IZ18 23918 26483 26 536 . 28 814 30857 31 893 35 028 37 158 39 197 . 42 258 46 296 51 057 55 043 59874 66 358 75739 79111 81 446 70884 72539 76 334
IZ19 11 703 13 524 15 400 14 968 15262 16110 16583 16829 17885 19733 20 205 22 232 23 918 23910 24 506 24918 25 636 25 713 21890 21961 23 391
I220 16 345 18 568 19 616 20 662 21561 22377 24089 25116 26260 28291 30 855 33 492 35 546 37 697 40 773 45674 48 212 50 306 44254 45 336 47 599
IZTOT 275 476 299 922 309 911 330 007 341670 359313 412429 434104 449087 485136 534 519 585 972 632 771 681 924 750 574 841099 890 278 927 680 795469 777 494 829 450
Lampiran 5. Pendapatan Sektoral Tahun 1980 - 2000
Tahun 1980
IYOl 1 790
IY02 339
IY03 624
IY04 1 841
IY06 638
IY07 69 1
IYO8 358
IY09 2 206
IYlO 2 599
IYll 7 363
IY12 92
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan Tahun 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
IY 13 243 245 252 269 293 266 307 353 410 486 533 599 717 803 997 1 005 1 271 1 445 534 653 803
IY20 7 127
IYTOT 46086
IY 140912
Lampiran 6. Tenaga Kerja Sektoral Tahun 1980 - 2000
Tahun 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
IN01 9570 9881 10172 10 985 12223 10416 11 266 11317 11570 11 211 11453 11197 11143 10899 10 678 10337 10427 9 752 10682 10662 10 650
IN03 IN02 5805 10673 5969 11076 6119 11460 6 707 12 677 7237 13912 6 189 11 915 6 693 12 825 6899 12788 6871 13351 6734 13 318 6799 13291 6669 13007 6660 12956 6535 12684 6 424 12 437 6240 12051 6315 12167 5 926 11 389 6513 12487 6147 13398 5 856 14 129
IN04 2314 2536 2770 3 235 3749 3 390 3 682 3813 3814 3 810 3808 3834 3930 3959 3 994 3982 4137 3 984 4495 4410 4 303
IN05 64 75 88 111 138 135 149 157 160 162 165 180 199 216 235 253 283 294 358 394 434
IN06 872 916 959 1073 1192 1 033 1 250 1442 1 607 1 788 1991 2 046 2140 2 201 2 266 2306 2 445 2 403 2 767 3 039 3 264
IN07 499 476 452 460 463 365 432 488 533 581 633 636 650 653 657 654 677 651 732 725 727
IN08 823 863 903 1 009 1 120 969 1 048 1080 1076 1070 1 065 1 085 1 125 1147 1171 1181 1 242 1210 1 381 1 392 1 371
IN09 360 375 389 433 477 416 463 482 516 552 625 670 743 751 741 761 773 896 675 742 784
IN10 2558 2 453 2 346 2 398 2 433 1975 2100 2119 2226 2368 2 677 2 923 3311 3 572 3 964 4122 4710 4 600 4200 4488 4 729
IN11 4060 4 046 4 020 4 271 4 500 3702 4146 4384 4668 5191 5 933 6 235 6447 6 552 6 849 6709 7221 6 644 5714 6 473 6 939
(Ribu Orang IN12 IN13 22 61 68 23 24 74 26 87 28 102 24 93 107 25 115 25 122 26 132 27 140 28 146 28 154 28 28 160 183 28 26 171 202 28 238 25 148 20 159 23 171 24
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
Tahun
IN15 5 438 6 027 6 660 7 867 9 220 8 433 9 289 10 070 9 892 10 019 10 233 10 486 11 025 11 392 13 239 12 059 14 429 15 994 15 798 15 407 15 417
IN16 1319 1017 781 642 523 371 411 417 435 456 480 515 563 604 730 691 859 990 1017 985 972
IN17 IN18 1964 281 1994 251 2019 225 2 186 214 2 348 203 1 968 171 2 214 191 2 308 214 2 458 252 2542 291 2 630 354 2 774 426 2 977 495 3 141 565 3368 624 3466 731 3 826 831 4 223 672 4154 618 576 3 934 3 891 566
IN19 1972 2059 2143 2 384 2 632 2 268 2510 2538 2 699 2747 2 808 2 776 2 803 2 782 2751 2717 2 766 3 115 2956 2 900 2 830
IN20 4663 5069 5494 6 366 7 319 6 566 7 190 7 265 7 566 7618 7 797 7 759 7 986 8 077 8140 8 193 8 501 9 760 9438 9 691 9 554
INTOT 54857 56830 58875 65170 72137 62457 68338 70402 72518 73425 75851 76423 78518 79201 82038 80110 85702 87 050 87 672 88817 89824
EMP 54857 56830 58875 65170 72137 62457 68338 70402 72518 73425 75851 76423 78518 79201 82038 80110 85702 87 050 87 672 88817 89824
UNEMP 1 499 1 658 1 827 1513 1115 1 368 1 855 1 843 2 077 2 083 1 952 2 032 2 186 2 246 3 738 6 251 4 408 4 275 5 062 6 030 5 872
(Ribu Orang) UNEMPR (96) 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 4.4 7.2 4.9 4.7 5.5 6.4 6.1
Lampiran 7. Makro Ekonomi Tahun 1980 - 2000 Tahun
IHKINA
IHKJPN
(96)
(%)
IHKUSA %
IHKW
IRINA
IRJPN
IRUSA
ERUS
ERJPN
YENUS
RERUS
RERJPN
IRINAJPN
IRINAUS
(46)
(9%)
(96)
(9%)
(RIJUSS)
(Rp1100 Yen)
(YenNS $)
(RpNSS)
(Rp1100Yen)
(96)
(%)
1980
34.2
63.3
70.1
8.6
1981
38.4
66.4
77.3
10.0
1
6.0
15.5
5.6
628
306
210
1 285
566
-9.49
0.42
6.0
10.9
4.5
632
299
219
1 273
517
-4.85
1.48
6.0
7.9
3.8
662
290
243
1 292
470
- 1.94
2.17
6.0
9.0
3.8
910
422
234
1 640
624
-3.00
2.17
15.3
18.0
8.1
3.6
1 027
437
248
1 743
616
9.94
14.42
88.2
17.7
19.5
7.1
3.6
1112
562
203
1 833
787
12.40
15.92
75.8
87.9
19.8
15.4
5.5
2.4
1 278
1 028
162
1 925
1 334
9.82
12.95
63.8
79.1
88.6
22.7
18.4
5.8
1 .8
1 644
1341
128
2 283
1 663
12.65
16.58
1988
67.4
82.6
89.5
28.4
19.0
8.1
1 .8
1 684
1 387
124
2 237
1701
10.92
17.15
1989
71.5
86.5
91.9
37.1
17.7
7.6
2.0
1 758
1 252
144
2 258
1515
10.07
15.65
1990
78.6
91.8
95.4
50.9
21 .O
6.7
3.6
1 834
1 420
134
2 226
1 658
14.26
17.36
1991
86.4
94.6
97.9
60.4
21.9
4.1
4.4
1 939
1 594
128
2 197
1 745
17.82
17.46
1992
90.8
97.3
99.0
77.1
16.7
3.2
3.2
2 026
1 658
124
2 210
1 777
13.50
13.55
1993
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
118
3.1
1.8
2 084
1491
l I0
2 084
1491
8.73
10.00
1994
109.6
102.7
100.7
126.8
14;3
5.6
1 .8
2 159
2 206
100
1 983
2066
8.67
12.43
1995
119.5
105.3
100.3
145.7
li:2
5.1
0.4
2 244
2 246
102
1 884
1 979
12.01
16.79
1996
127.4
108.8
100.9
157.7
17.0
4.9
0.3
2 327
2 058
114
1 843
1 757
12.12
16.69
1997
142.2
110.6
102.7
166.7
23.9
5.2
0.4
2 881
3 578
130
2 081
2 784
18.76
23.57
1982
42.0
68.2
82.1
1.6
1983
47.0
69.5
84.7
13.3
1984
51.3
72.2
87.0
1985
53.5
75.0
1986
58.4
1987
4
1998
252.3
112.4
103.3
175.6
49.2
4.4
0.2
10 179
7000
117
4 167
3 119
44.84
49.00
1999
257.4
115.4
102.2
183.6
13.0
5.2
0.1
7 850
6 947
103
3 117
3 115
7.75
12.86
2000
281.5
119.3
102.1
191.0
13 2
5.8
0.2
8418
8 357
l I2
3 052
3 543
7.47
13.09
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan Tahun
POIL
1
PDBUSA
PDBJPN
PDBW
WAGRI
WMINING
WMANUF
WLGA
WCONS
WTRADE
WTRANS
WSERV
(US $/Barel)
(Miliar US $)
(Miliar Yen)
(Miliar US S)
(Rp)
(RP)
(RP)
(RP)
(RP)
(RP)
(RP)
(RP)
1980
36.7
4 609
311 530
16 245
51452
175546
123 142
61 517
85 057
123 068
122659
97 229
1981
35.3
4 722
320 407
16 804
56959
167 959
120 545
71 024
77 830
138 629
131 527
102 559
1982
32.4
4 627
330 480
17 276
60 607
165 097
136215
80 483
83294
149844
144262
121111
1983
29.6
4 827
337 976
17 508
57 869
154 320
139 492
85 352
78113
143136
147799
I20177
1984
28.5
5 178
350 94 1
18 167
62 362
162 705
147 070
89 590
82356
151 615
155830
126708
1985
27.4
5 377
366 257
19 312
72 295
179 197
IS5 643
113 803
99280
168398
160189
133791
1986
14.2
5 561
377 136
20 442
75 092
176 340
157 379
138 005
134 973
233 046
189 620
122 578
1987
18.2
5 749
393 975
21 345
72649
228 740
154 549
126313
150990
249376.
181003
112193
1988
14.8
5 989
419 622
22 315
74598
216792
171 707
119 627
142820
310632
171422
151590
1989
17.9
6 200
44 1 788
23 151
94460
259 005
182 188
132 865
167 683
297 759
164 586
156645
1990
23.0
6 300
465 344
23 840
127 978
277 66 1
218 776
134 544
281 477
289 582
170 065
200490
1991
19.4
6 279
479 855
24 205
155 936
372 364
215 339
151 596
204 078
289 724
195 354
258 372
1992
19.0
6471
484 300
24 739
164937
406418
206916
166 130
280 258
336 135
245 859
258 572
1993
16.8
6642
486 329
25 142
169 812
413 807
195 527
I55 240
289 882
315 535
230460
234 683
1994
15.9
6 910
491 175
25 998
219 308
444 473
188 723
157 673
269 543
297 483
425 737
2 14 058
1995
17.2
7 095
498 885
26 737
228 0 11
423 289
199 584
223 643
273391
308298
413211
234772
1996
20.4
7 348
516 195
27 596
213 821
449 891
188 934
321 315
244865
313528
387138
260821
1997
19.3
7 674
525 489
28 566
193 935
457 344
203 676
308 710
219423
300716
419804
271243
1998
13.1
8 003
519710
29 199
112 939
257 695
116 901
123 636
173 946
169 804
236 973
155 023
1999
18.0
8 329
523 188
30 086
115866
291383
120 436
159 279
170 545
166 466
246 298
155 589
2000
28.2
8 675
535 541
31 285
117 303
298 866
130 029
162 480
165620
181988
251087
159360
Lampiran 8. Hasil Pendugaan Model Input-Output Ekonometrika Indonesia
I. Blok Permintaan Akhir CONS = EXP ((((-0.3561)+ 0.3200* LOG (GDY))+ 0.6999* LOG(CONS(- 1 )))+ (0.07762)* D98) CNM = EXP (((-1.771 1)+ 0.8229* LOG (GDY))+ 0.2309* LOG(CNM(- 1)))
I = EXP (((0.7000+ 0.0 1484* GPDB)+ 0.9360* LOG(I(- I)))+ (-0.2448)* 09899) G = EXP (((3.6509+ 0.5178* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.07375)* D9899)+ 0.5920* (((LOG(G(-1))- 3.6509)- 0.5 178* LOG(PDB(-1)))- (-(i.07375)* D9899(- 1))) XMGS = EXP (((((-3.8473)+ 0.7632* LOG (POIL))+ 0.3043* LOG (IX09))+ 0.3409* LOG(XMGS(-I)))+ (-0.1524)* D85) XMNF = EXP (((((-4.5929)+ 0.3533* LOG (RERUS))+ 0.2150* LOG (1x1 I))+ 0.8272* LOG(XMNF(-I)))+ (-0.2765)* D9798) . XPRMl = EXP (((((BFD07EO+ BFD07El* LOG (IX04))+ BFD07E2* LOG (RERUS))+ BFD07E3* D9798)+ PHIFD07 1* ((((LOG(XPRM1(- 1))- BFD07EO)BFD07E 1* LOG(IX04(-1)))- BFD07E2* LOG(RERUS(-1)))- BFD07E3* D9798(I)))+ PHIFD072* ((((LOG(XPRMl(-2))- BFD07EO)- BFD07El* LOG(IX04(-2)))BFD07E2* LOG(RERUS(-2)))- BFD07E3* D9798(-2))) v
PDB = EXP (((((-0.6084)+ 0.4910* LOG (PDBW))+ 0.1977* LOG (IYTOT))+ 0.4757* LOG(PDB(-I)))+ (-0.05534)* D98) MBB = EXP ((((BFD09EO+ BFD09E1* LOG (PDB))+ BFD09E2* D9899)+ PHXFD091* (((LOG(MBB(-1))- BFD09EO)- BFD09El* LOG(PDB(-1)))- BFD09E2* D9899(-)))+ PHIFD092* (((LOG(MBB(-2))- BFD09EO)- BFD09E 1* LOG(PDB(2)))- BFD09E2*D9899(-2))) MBM = EXP (((((BFDlOEO+ BFDlOEl* LOG (PDB))+ BFDlOE2* LOG (ERJPN))+ BFD 10E3* D99)+ PHIFD 101* ((((LOG(MBM(-1))- BFD 1OE0)BFDlOEl* LOG(PDB(-1)))- BFDlOE2* LOG(ERJPN(-1)))- BFDlOE3* D99(-I)))+ PHIFD 102* (((LOC-(MBM(-2))- BFD 1OEO)- BFD 1OEl * LOG(PDB(-2)))BFD 1OE2* LOG(ERJPN(-2)))-BFD lOE3* D99(-2))) MKINA = EXP ((((BFDllEO+ BFDllEl* LOG (ERUS))+ BFDllE2* LOG (GDY))+ PHIFD 111* (((LOG(MKINA(-1))- BFDl1EO)- BFDl 1E1* LOG(ERUS(1)))- FD11E2* LOG(GDY(-I))))+ PHIFD 112* (((LOG(IHKINA(-2))- BFD 11E0)BFD 11E 1* LOG(ERUS(-2)))- BFD 11E2* LOG(GDY(-2)))) XDEF = EXP (((-2.2061)+ 0.6737* LOG (ERUS))+ 0.3701* LOG(XDEF(-1))) MDEF = EXP (((-2.0976)+ 0.6037* LOG (ERUS))+ 0.4566* LOG(MDEF(-I)))
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
11.
Blok Output Dugaan (Persamaan Identitas Input Output)
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
111. Blok Output Aktual
IXOl = IZO 1* EXP (((((8.8816+ (-0.7329)* LOG(CONS(-I)))+ 0.5 187* LOG(IX0I (l)/IZOI(-I)))+ (-0.2724)* D86)+ (-0.1 165)* D97)+ 0.08765* D98)+ ADDXOI 1x02 = IZ02* EXP ((((((B002EO+ B002E 1* LOG (CONS))+ B002E2*D97)+ PHI002E 1* (((LOG(IX02(-l)/IZ02(-1))- B002EO)- B002E 1* LOG(CONS(-1)))B002E2* D97(-I)))+ PHI002E2* (((LOG(IX02(-2)/IZO2(-2))- B002EO)- B002E1" LOG(CONS(-2)))- B002E2* D97(-2)))+ PHI002El* LOG ((IX02(-1)- ADDX02(I))/ IXO2(-I)))+ PHI002E2* LOG ((IXO2(-2)- ADDX02(-2))/ IX02(-2)))+ ADDX02 1x03 = IZ03* EXP (((((B003EO+ B003E1* D9800)+ PHI003E1* ((LOG(IX03(1)/IZ03(-1))- B003EO)- B003E 1* D9800(- 1)))+ PHI003E2* ((LOG(IX03(-2)/IZ03(2))- B003EO)- B003E1* D9800(-2)))+ PHI003E1* LOG ((IX03(-1)- ADDX03(-1))/ IX03(- I)))+ PHI003E2* LOG ((IX03(-2)- ADDX03(-2))lIX03(-2)))+ ADDX03 KO4 = IZ04* EXP (((((-3.3382)+ 0.2594* LOG (CM))+ (-0.1057)* D97)+ 0.8608* (((LOG(IX04(-l)/IZO4(- 1))- (-3.3382))- 0.2594* LOG(CM(-1)))- (-0.1057)* D97(I)))+ PHIOO4* LOG ((IX04(-1)- ADDX04(-I))/ IX04(- 1)))+ ADDX04 IXO5 = E05* EXP (((((B005EO+ B005E1* LOG (PDBW))+ PHIOOSEI* ((LOG(IXO5(-1)/IZ05(-1))B005EO)B005E1* LOG(PDBW (- 1))))+ PHIOO5E2*(LOG(IXO5(-2)/IZ05(-2))-B005EO)- B005E 1* LOG(PDBW (-2))))+ PHIOO5E1* LOG ((IX05(-1)- ADDXO5(-I))/ M05(-I)))+ PHI005E2* LOG ((IX05(2)- ADDX05(-2))/ IX05(-2)))+ ADDXO5
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan IX06 = IZ06* EXP ((((((B006EO+ BOMEI* LOG (CONS))+ B006E2* D98)+ PHI006E 1* (((LOG(IX06(-I )/1206(- 1))- B006EO)- B006E 1* LOG(CONS(-1)))B006E2* D98(-I)))+ PHI006E2* (((LOG(IX06(-2)/IZ06(-2))- B006EO)- B006E 1 * LOG(CONS(-2)))- B006E2* D98(-2)))+ P H I W E 1* LOG ((IX06(-1)- ADDX06(I))/ IX06(-I)))+ PHI006E2* LOG (IXM(-2)- ADDX06(-2))/ IX06(-2)))+ ADDX06 1x07 = IZ07* EXP ((((-3.8655)+ 0.5530* LOG (RERUS))+ 0.8485* ((LOG(IX07(1)/IZ07(-1))- (-3.8655))- 0.5530* LOG(RERUS(-I))))+ PHI007" LOG ((IX07(-1)ADDX07(- 1))I IX07(- 1)))+ ADDX07 1x08 = IZ08* EXP ((0.007576+ 0.7760* LOG(IX08(-I)AZ08(-I)))+ (-0.1593)* D9697)+ ADDX08 KO9 = Izo9* EXP (((-0.007780)+ 0.8703* LOG(IX09(-1)AZ09(-1)))+ 0.195 1 * D9899)+ ADDX09 IXlO = IZlO* EXP (((((BOlOEO+ BOlOEI* LOG (PDB))+ PHIOIOEI* ((LOG(= lo(- 1)/El 0(- 1))- BOl OE0)- BO I OEI * LOG(PDB(-1))))+ PHIO 1OE2* (LOG(1Xlo(-2)/IZ10(-2))- BO1OEO)- BO1OEl * LOG(PDB(-2))))+ PHI0 10E1* LOG ((IXlo(- 1)- ADDX lo(- I))/ IX lo(- 1)))+ PHIO I OE2* LOG ((IX 10(-2)- ADDX I 0(-2))1 IX lo(-2)))+ ADDX 10 1x11 = E l l * EXP (((((-12.7344)+ 0.9696* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.2155)* D9698)+ 0.9215* (((LOG(IX1I(- l)/IZll(-1))- (- 12.7344))- 0.9696* LOG(PDB(-1)))- (0.2155)* D9698(-I)))+ PHI01 1* LOG ((1x1I(-1)- ADDXI I (-I))/ 1x1 I (-I)))+ ADDX11 IX12 = E12* EXP ((((((((B012EO+ B012E1* D83)+ B012E2* D85)+ B012E3* D9798)+ B 0 12E4* DOO)+ PHI012E1* (((((LOG(1X12(-1)/IZ12(-1))- B 0 12EO)012E1* D83:-1))- B012E2* D85(-1))- B012E3" D9798(-1))- B012E4* D00(-I)))+ PHIO l2E2* (((((LOG(= 12(-2)/IZ12(-2))- B 0 12EO)- B 0 12E 1* D83(-2))- B 0 12E2* D85(-2))- B 0 12E3* D9798(-2))- B012E4* D00(-2)))+ PHI0 12E1* LOG ((1x12(- 1)ADDX12(- I))/ 1x12(- I)))+ PHI0 12E2* LOG ((IX12(-2)- ADDX 12(-2))/IX12(-2)))+ ADDX12 1x13 = IZ13* EXP ((((((B013EO+ B013E1* D86)+ B013E2* D98)+ PHI013E1* (((LOG(IXl3(-l)AZ13(-1))-B013EO)- B013El* D86(-1))- B013E2* D98(-I)))+ PHI013E2* (((LOG(IX13(-2)/IZ13(-2))- B013EO)- B013El* D86(-2))- B013E2* D98(-2)))+ PHI013E1* LOG ((IX13(-1)- ADDX13(-I))/ 1x13(-I)))+ PHI01 3E2* LOG ((IX 13(-2)- ADDX 13(-2))/ IX 13(-2)))+ADDX 13 IX14 = E14* EXP (((((-5.6632)+ 0.4516* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.2020)* D9798)+ 0.5923* (((LOG(IX14(-l)/IZ14(-1))- (-5.6632))- 0.45 16* LOG(PDB(-1)))- (-0.2020)* D9798(-I)))+ PHI014* LOG ((IX14(-1)- ADDX14(-I))/ 1x14(- 1)))+ ADDX 14 IXl5 = E l 5* EXP (((((-0.6574)+ 0.08784* LOG (PDBKAP))+ 0.5304* LOG(IXl5(1)lE15(-I)))+ (-0.1086)* D86)+ 0.04252* D9799)+ ADDX 15
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan K 1 6 = IZ16* EXP (((((-12.9391)+ 0.9419* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.1329)* D9798)+ 0.9638* (((LOG(IX16(-l)/IZ16(-1))-(-1 2.9391))- 0.9419* LOG(PDB(-I )))- (0.1329)* D9798(-I)))+ PHI016* LOG ((IX16(-I)- ADDXI 6(-I))/ 1x16(-I)))+ ADDX 16 1x17 = E17* EXP ((((((((B017EO+ B017ElY LOG (PDB))+ B017E2* D84)+ B 0 17E3* D86)+ B017E4* D98)+ PHI0 17EI* (((((LOG(1X17(-1)/IZ17(-1))017EO)- B017E1* LOG(PDB(-1)))- B017E2* D84(-I))- B017E3* D86(-I ))B017E4* D98(-I)))+ PHI017E2*(((((LOG(IX17(-2)AZl7(-2))B017EO)- B017E1* LOG(PDB(-2)))- B017E2* D84(-2))- B017E3* D86(-2))- B017E4* D98(-2)))+ PHI017E1* LOG ((IX17(-1)- ADDX17(-1))/IX17(-I)))+ PHI01 7E2* LOG ((1x17(2)- ADDX 17(-2))/IX 17(-2)))+ADDX 17 IX18 = IZ18* EXP ((((((B018EO+ B018E1* LOG (PDB))+ B018E2* D99)+ PHIOl8E1* (((LOG(IX18(-1)IIZI8(-1))- B018EO)- B018E1* LOG(PDB(-I )))B018E2* D99(-I)))+ PHI01 8E2* (((LOG(IX18(-2)AZI8(-2))- B018EO)- B 0 18E1* LOG(PDB(-2)))- B 0 18E2* D99(-2)))+ PHIO 18El* LOG ((IX18(-1)- ADDX 18(-1))I IX 18(-I)))+ PHI018E2* LOG ((1x18(-2)- ADDX 18(-2))TIX18(-2)))+ ADDX 18 IX 19 = E19* EXP ((((-0.007580)+ 0.9665* LOG(IX19(-l)AZ19(-1 )))+ 0.4001 * D83)+ 0.08927* D9899)+ ADDX19 IX20 = E20* EXP (((((B020EO+ B020EI* D99)+ PHI020EI* ((LOG(IX20(1)/E20(-1))- B020EO)- B020E 1* D99(- 1)))+ PHI020E2" ((LOG(IX20(-2)/IZ20(2))- B020EO)- B020E1* D99(-2)))+ PHI020E1* LOG ((IX20(-1)- ADDX20(-I))/ IX20(- I)))+ PHI020E2" LOG ((IX20(-2)- ADDX20(-2))/ IX20(-2)))+ADDX20
IV. Blok Pendapatan IYOl = IN01 * EXP (((-0.08 165)+ 0.9347* LOG(IY0 I (- I )/IN01(- 1 )))+(-0.5316)* D98)+ ADDYOl IY02 = IN02* EXP (((-0.2729)+ 0.8735* LOG(IY02(- 1)/IN02(-I)))+ (-0.5268)* D98)+ ADDY02 IY03 = IN03* EXP ((((((BY03EO+ BY03EI* LOG (PDB))+ BY03E2* D9800)+ PHIY03EI * (((LOG(IY03(-I)/IN03(- 1))- BY03EO)- BY03E 1 * LOG(PDB(-1)))BY03E2* D9800(-I)))+ PHIY03E2* (((LOG(IY03(-2)/IN03(-2))- BY03EO)BY03EI * LOG(PDB(-2)))- BY03E2* D9800(-2)))+ PHIY03ElX LOG ((IY03(-1)ADDY03(- 1))I IY03(- I)))+ PHIY03E2" LOG((IY03(-2)- ADDY03(-2))l IY03(-2)))+ ADDY03 IY04 = IN04* EXP ((((-1.6041)+ 0.1326* LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.7977" LOG(IY04(l)/IN04(-I)))+ (-0.4704)* D98)+ ADDY04
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan IY05 = INOS* EXP ((((((BYOSEO+ BYOSEI* LOG (PDB))+ BY05E2* D98)+ PHJYOSE1 * (((LOG(IYO5(-l)/INOS(-1))- BYO5EO)- BYO5El * LOG(PDB(- I )))BY05E2* D98(-I)))+ PHIYO5E2* (((LOG(IY05(-2)/IN05(-2))BYOSE0)- BYOSEI * LOG(PDB(-2)))- BY05E2* D98(-2)))+ PHIYO5E 1 * LOG ((IY05(-1)- ADDYO5(- I ))I IY05(-1)))+ PHIYO5E2* LOG ((IY05(-2)- ADDY05(-2))l IY05(-2)))+ ADDY05 IY06 = IN06* EXP ((((-0.7262)+ 0.06239* LOG (WAGRI))+ 1.0160* LOG(IY06(1)/IN06(-I)))+ (-0.5252)* D98)+ ADDY06 IY07 = IN07* EXP ((((-1.4994)+ 0.1402* LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.7420* LOG(IY07(l)/IN07(-I)))+ (-0.4563)* D98)+ ADDY07 IY08 = IN08* EXP ((((-1.2100)+ 0.1081* LOG (CM))+ 0.9168* l)/IN08(-I)))+ (-0.5865)* D98)+ ADDY08
LOG(IY08(-
IY09 = IN09* EXP ((((-1.5746)+ 0.1584* LOG (WMINING))+ 0.7948* LOG(IY09(- 1)/IN09(-I)))+ (-0.3685)* D9899)+ ADDY09 IY 10 = IN1O* EXP ((0.03958+ 1.0335* LOG(1Y lo(-l)/IN10(-I)))+ (-0.5862)* D98)+ ADDY10 IYll = INll* EXP (((((-3.6538)+ 0.3149* LOG (WMANUF))+ 0.9225* LOG(1Yl 1(-l)/INll(-I)))+ (-0.4000)* D98)+ 0.08739* DO)+ ADDY 1I IY 12 = IN 12* EXP (((((BY12EO+ BY 12E1* D98)+ PHIY 12E1* ((LOG(1Y 12(l)/IN 12(-1))- BY 12EO)- BY 12El* D98(-I)))+ PHIY 12E2* ((LOG(1Y12(-2)/IN12(2))- BY 12EO)- BY 12El* D98(-2)))+ PHIY 12El* LOG ((IY 12(-1)- ADDY 12(-1))I IY 12(-1)))+ PHIY 12E2* LOG ((IY 12(-2)- ADDY 12(-2))l IY 12(-2)))+ ADDY 12 IY 13 = IN! 3* EXP ((((-3.2857)+ 0.2930* LOG (PDB))+ 0.7486" ])/IN13(-I)))+ (-0.5406)* D98)+ ADDY 13
LOG(1Y13(-
IY14 = IN14* EXP ((((-0.7955)+ 0.07461* LOG (PDB))+ 0.9049* LOG(IY14(l)lIN14(-I)))+ (-0.5469)* D98)+ ADDY 14
1 '15 ~ = IN15* EXP (((((-14.6296)+ 1.8383* LOG (PDBKAP))+ (-0.1303)* D9899)+ 0.9299* (((LOG(1Y15(-l)lIN15(-1))- (-14.6296))- 1.8383* LOG(PDBKAP(-1)))- (0.1303)" D9899(-I)))+ PHIY IS* LOG ((IY15(-1)- ADDY IS(-I))/ IY 15(-I)))+ ADDY15 IY 16 = IN 16* EXP ((0.3487+ 0.8383* LOG(1Y 16(-1)/IN16(-I)))+ (-0.5240)* D98)+ ADDY 16 IY17 = IN17* EXP ((((1.2027+ (-0.1010)* LOG (PDB))+ 1.0796* LOG(IY17(1)lIN17(-I)))+(-0.5708)* D98)+ 0.1534* Dm)+ ADDY 17 IY18 = IN18* EXP ((((-0.5346)+ 0.1087* LOG (PDB))+ 0.7064* LOG(IY18(l)/IN18(-I)))+ (-0.5315)* D98)+ ADDY 18
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan IY 19 = IN 19* EXP ((0.1556+ 0.9121 * LOG(1Y 19(-1)/IN19(-I)))+ (-0.53 17)* D98)+ ADDY 19 IY20 = IN20* EXP ((((-2.3572)+ 0.1893* LOG (PDB))+ 0.9302* LOG(IY20(l)/IN20(-I)))+ (-0.5702)* D98)+ ADDY2O IYOTH = EXP (((0.05935+ 0.04105* LOG (PDB))+ 0.9551* LOG(IYOTH(-I)))+ 0.1526* D98)
IY=IYTOT+IYOTH
V.
Blok Tenaga Kerja
IN01 = 1x011EXP ((((((-4.5309)+ 0.125 1* LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.2738* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.06100)* D9798)+ (-0.3019)* ((((LOG(IXOl(-l)/INOl(-1))(-4.5309))- 0.125 1 * LOG(WAGRI(-1)))- 0.2738* LOG(PDB(-1)))- (-0.06100)* D9798(-I)))+ PHINOI* LOG (IN01(- 1)I (IN01(- 1 )- ADDNO 1(-1))))+ ADDNO 1 IN02 = 1x021 EXP ((((((-12.0944)+ 0.08747* LOG (WAGRI))+ 2.1524* LOG (POP))+ (-0.09483)* D98)+ 0.5081* ((((LOG(IX02(-1)/IN02(-1))- (- 12.0944))0.08747* LOG(WAGRI(-1)))- 2.1524* LOG(POP(- 1)))- (-0.09483)* D98(-1 )))+ PHIN02*LOG(IN02(-1)l (IN02(- 1)- ADDN02(-1))))+ ADDNO2 IN03 = 1x031 EXP (((-0.9937)+ 0.08700" LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.9376* LOG(IX03(1)/IN03(-I)))+ ADDN03 IN04 = 1x041 EXP ((((-3.6269)+ 0.3092* LOG (PDB))+ 0.7607* LOG(IX04(l)/IN04(-I)))+ (-0.1786)* D9S)+ ADDN04 IN05 = 1x051 EXP ((((((BNOSEO+ BNOSEI * LOG (WAGRI))+ BN05E2* D9800)+ PHINOSEI * (((LOG(IXO5(-1)/IN05(-1))- BNO5EO)- BNO5El * LOG(WAGRI(-I )))BNOSE2* D9800(-I)))+ PHINO5E2* (((LOG(IXO5(-2)/IN05(-2))- BNO5EO)BNOSEl* LOG(WAGRI(-2)))- BN05E2* D9800(-2)))+ PHINOSE1* LOG (IN05(-1)/ (IN05(-1)- ADDNOS(-I))))+ PHINO5E2* LOG(IN05(-2)l (IN05(-2)- ADDNOS(2))))+ ADDNOS IN06 = IX061 EXP ((((((-1.3794)+ 0.1865* LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.6044* LOG(IX06(1)/IN06(-I)))+ 0.3332* D85)+ (-0.2100)* D90)+ (-0.2405)* D98)+ ADDN06 IN07 = 1x071 EXP ((((0.5856+ 0.7775* LOG(IX07(-1)/IN07(-I)))+ 0.421 I* D85)+ 0.261 8* D97)+ 0.09893" D9900)+ ADDN07
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan IN08 = IX08/ EXP ((((((-7.1601)+ 0.1208* LOG (WAGRI))+ 0.5994* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.1058)* D98)+ 0.07569* ((((LOG(IX08(-1)/lN08(-1))- (-7.1601))- 0.1208* LOG(WAGRI(-1)))- 0.5994* LOG(PDB(- 1)))- (-0.1058)* D98(- 1)))+ PHIN08* LOG (IN08(-l)/(IN08(- 1)- ADDN08(- 1))))+ ADDN08 IN09 = NO91 EXP (((0.61 35+ 0.8453* LOG(IX09(-l)/IN09(-I)))+ (-0.1735)* D82)+ 0.307 1* D98)+ ADDN09 IN10 = E l 0 1 EXP (((((BNlOEO+ BNlOEl* LOG (PDB))+ PHINlOEl* ((LOG(1Xlo(- 1)/INlO(-1))- BN 1OE0)- BN lOE1* LOG(PDB(-1))))+ PHIN I OE2* (LOG(IX 10(-2)/IN lo(-2))- BN 1OE0)- BN 1OE 1* LOG(PDB(-2))))+ PHIN 1OE 1* LOG (IN lo(- 1)/ (IN lo(- 1)- ADDN lo(- 1))))+ PHIN 1OE2* LOG (IN lo(-2)/ (IN lo(-2)ADDN lo(-2))))+ ADDN 10 IN1 1 = 1x1 11 EXP ((((((BN11EO+ BN1 1El * LOG (WMANUF))+ BN 1 1E2* LOG (POP))+ PHINllEl* (((LOG(IXll(-l)l(l))BNI1EO)BNIIEI* LOG(WMANUF(-1)))- BN 11E2* LOG(POP(- 1))))+ PHIN 11E2* (((LOG(1X1 1(2)/IN 11(-2))- BN 11E0)- BN 11El * LOG(WMANUF(-2)))- BN 11E2* LOG(POP(2))))+ PHIN 11El * LOG (IN1 1(-I)/ (IN1 1(-1)- ADDN 11(-I))))+ PHINI 1E2* LOG (IN 11(-2)/ (IN 1 1(-2)- ADDN 11(-2))))+ ADDNI 1 IN12 = 1x121 EXP (((((((BN12EO+ BN12El* D83)+ BN12E2* D85)+ BN12E3* D98)+ PHIN12El* ((((LOG(IXl2(-l)/INI2(-1))BN12EO)- BN12E1* D83(-1))BN 12E2* D85(- 1))- BN 12E3* D98(- I)))+ PHIN 12E2* ((((LOG(1X12(-2)lIN12(-2))BN12EO)- BN12E1* D83(-2))- BN12E2* D85(-2))- BN12E3* D98(-2)))+ PHIN 12E1* LOG (IN 12(-l)/(IN12(-1)- ADDN 12(-I))))+ PHIN 12E2* LOG (IN12(2)/ (IN 12(-2)- ADDN 12(-2))))+ADDN 12 IN 13 = IX 131 EXP ((((((-0.07478)+ 0.1 184* LOG (PDB))+ 0.6450" LOG(1X 13(1)/IN13(-I)))+ (-0.4262)* D86)+ (-0.1910)* D97)+ 0.3643* D98)+ ADDN13 IN14 = IX141 EXP ((((-3.0431)+ G.4293* LOG (PDB))+ 0.21 15* LOG(IXl4(1)/IN14(-I)))+(-0.2967)* D98)+ ADDN14 IN15 = E l 5 1 EXP ((((((BN15EO+ BNlSEl* LOG (PDBKAP))+ BN15E2* D98)+ PHINl5E1 * (((LOG(IXl5(-1)/IN15(-1))BNl5EO)- BNl5E1 * LOG(PDBKAP(-1)))BN15E2* D98(-I)))+ PHIN15E2* (((LOG(IXl5(-2)/INl5(-2))BNl5EO)- BNl5E1 * LOG(PDBKAP(-2)))- BN15E2* D98(-2)))+ PHINISEI * LOG (IN 15(-1)/ (IN 15(-1)ADDN 15(-I))))+ PHIN15E2* LOG (IN15(-2)/ (IN15(-2)- ADDN 15(-2))))+ ADDN 15 IN16 = E l 6 1 EXP ((0.8439+ 0.7935* LOG(IX16(-l)/IN16(-I)))+(-0.3095)* D9698)+ ADDN16; IN17 = 1x171 EXP (((((-4.8415)+ 0.5870* LOG (PDB))+ (-0.1486)* D9798)+ 0.4495* (((LOG(IX17(-l)/IN17(-1))- (-4.8415))- 0.5870* LOG(PDB(- 1)))- (-0.1486)* D9798(-I)))+ PHIN17* LOG (IN17(-1)/ (IN17(-1)- ADDN17(-I))))+ ADDN17 IN18 = M181 EXP (((1.3634+ 0.7076* LOG(IX18(- 1)/IN18(-I)))+ (-0.2448)* D96)+ (-0.3181)* D9899)+ ADDN18
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan IN19 = E l 9 1 EXP ((((((BN19EO+ BN19El* LOG (PDB))+ BN19E2* D9798)+ PHIN 19El* (((LOG(1X 19(-1)lIN19(-1))- BN19EO)- BN19E 1 * LOG(PDB(-1)))BN 19E2* D9798(-I)))+ PHIN19E2* (((LOG(1X19(-2)IIN19(-2))- BN 19EO)BN 19El* LOG(PDB(-2)))- BN 19E2* D9798(-2)))+ PHIN 19EI * LOG (IN 19(-1 )I (IN 19(-1)- ADDN 19(-I))))+ PHIN 19E2* LOG (IN 19(-2)/ (IN 19(-2)- ADDN 19(2))))+ ADDN 19 IN20 = 1x201 EXP ((((((BN20EO+ BN20El* LOG (WSERV))+ BN20E2* D97)+ PHIN20El* (((LOG(IX20(-l)/IN20(-1))BN20EO)- BN20EI * LOG(WSERV(-1 )))BN20E2* D97(-I)))+ PHIN20E2* (((LOG(IX20(-2)/IN20(-2))- BN20EO)- BN20El* LOG(WSERV(-2)))- BN20E2* D97(-2)))+ PHIN20E I * LOG (IN20(-1)I (IN20(-I )ADDN20(-I))))+PHIN20E2* LOG(IN20(-2)/ (IN20(-2)- ADDN20(-2))))+ ADDN20 UNEMP = EXP ((((-22.6846)+ 5.8565* LOG (POP))+ 0.4368* D95)+ 0.7047* (((LOG(UNEMP(-1))- (-22.6846))- 5.8565* LOG(POP(-1)))- 0.4368* D95(- 1 )))
Lampiran 9. Indikator Validasi Model Input-Output Ekonometrika Indonesia Periode Tahun 1980 - 2000
Variabel Permintaan Akhir PDB CONS I G X M GDY CM CNM XTOT XMGS XMNF XPRM MTOT MBB MBM MBK IHKINA XDEF MDEF RERUS INFL PDBKAP GPDB
RMSE
Indikator ME MAE
U-Theil
18 409.7 15 653.3 8 252.7 1 652.1 17 526.9 17 293.5 21 250.5 10 533.8 6 776.5 8.1 0.7 5.9 1.9 5.7 2.8 1.2 4.4 10.0 13.0 6.5 165.0 2.6 92.7 2.2
14 021.8 12 265.4 6 786.4 1 383.2 15 731.2 14 032.2 15 801.5 8 398.7 4 652.3 6.2 0.5 4.6 1.4 4.8 1.9 1O . 3.7 8.1 10.0 4.4 150.9 2.2 71.8 1.5
13 103.7 4 462.2 -2 434.6 5 19.4 i3 607.9 3 051.1 14 357.7 980.7 3 468.5 6.0 0.3 4.6 1.2 .8 1.1 0.7 - 1.0 - 8.1 2.1 0.5 150.9 -0.4 66.2 0.4
0.0303 0.0408 0.044 1 0.03 19 0.1 175 0.1085 0.0343 0.0449 0.0454 0.1233 0.0301 0.2035 0.1 149 0.1 109 0.0769 0.1 136 0.7252 0.0356 0.0347 0.0190 0.0365 0.0655 0.0290 0.1627
3 199.2 936.8 806.8 2 030.8 101.0 1 453.9 836.9 952.8 4 120.9 7 376.6 16 466.8 2 573.8 772.2
2 132.3 637.5 560.6 1 359.3 72.4 1 009.6 707.1 629.6 3 655.5 5 040.3 13 597.8 2 218.7 631.4
1 127.0 336.9 341.2 1 147.8 64.8 762.0 669.3 407.4 3 110.7 3 482.6 12 260.0 1 984.5 614.1
0.1010 0.0640 0.0399 0.0860 0.0493 0.0421 0.0780 0.0627 0.0674 0.0476 0.0676 0.0799 0.0593
1 Output Dugaan IZOl IZ02 IZ03 IZ04 IZ05 IZ06 IZ07 IZO8 IZ09 IZlO 1211 1212 IZ13
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
Variabel
RMSE
Indikator ME MAE -832.1 4 482.2 2 965.9 3 589.3 1 928.0 2 021.0 3 912.4 3 534.3 4 540.2 4 632.1 448.6 1 111.2 1631.5 1 985.1
U-Theil 0.042 1 0.05 13 0.0479 0.0629 0.0567 0.03 16 0.0384
IZ14 IZ15 El6 El7 El8 IZ19 IZ20
5 337.9 5 149.1 2 942.4 4 769.3 6 198.3 1 321.3 2 709.2
Output Aktual 1x01 1x02 IX03 1x04 1x05 IX06 IX07 1x08 1x09 IX 10 IXll 1x12 IX13 1x14 IX15 IX 16 IX 17 IX18 IX19 EX20 IXTOT
1 457.0 509.5 818.2 1 835.1 114.9 2 159.8 2 077.6 670.8 4 628.1 17 428.5 26 787.7 2 971.6 1 291.6 8 664.5 6 251.4 3 567.9 5 322.1 14 404.2 2 429.9 5 670.5 78 425.9
1 148.6 420.9 658.3 1 463.5 96.2 1 487.0 1 741.5 397.4 3 483.0 11 631.0 22 341.6 2 278.8 988.8 7 039.0 4 358.0 2 874.3 4 353.3 10 795.0 2 010.0 4 062.2 63 728.7
470.1 227.7 -240.9 1231.3 76.4 906.1 1 241.6 380.4 2 834.3 6 130.3 21 774.3 2 053.4 836.7 -47 1.6 3 625.2 2 432.7 3 811.3 10 795.0 1 853.3 1 476.0 61 443.6
0.0465 0.0337 0.0342 0.0847 0.0574 0.0686 0.1055 0.0468 0.0647 0.1025 0.1354 0.0794 0.0852 0.0676 0.06 19 0.0693 0.0676 0.1965 0.0629 0.1016 0.0672
233.2 32.7 168.4 21 1.6 143.8 114.7 126.7 83.6 619.4
160.9 28.2 149.0 176.6 78.7 82.3 108.6 53.4 465.4
-25.5 24.9 149.O 152.8 -59.0 40.5 80.9 39.6 418.7
0.0453 0.028 1 0.0929 0.0394 0.2389 0.0539 0.0659 0.0435 0.0693
Pendapatan IYO 1 IY02 IY03 IY04 IY05 IY06 IY07 XY08 _ IY09
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan
Variabel IY 10 IYll IY12 IY13 IY 14 IY 15 IY 16 IY17 IY 18 IY19 IY20 IYOTH IYTOT IY
Tenaga Kerja IN0 1 IN02 IN03 IN04 IN05 IN06 IN07 IN08 IN09 IN10 IN1 1 IN12 IN13 IN14 IN15 IN16 IN 17 IN 18 IN19 IN20 UNEMP INTOT LAB UNEMPR Keterangan: RMSE = MAE = ME = U-Theil =
RMSE 1 593.0 6 089.1 311.1 152.6 1 507.0 1 777.4 583.1 2 468.9 2 644.2 1 392.8 1 021.8 9 045.4 17 946.0 11 030.3
996.4 371.1 1 958.3 313.3 26.9 180.8 89.4 84.6 85.2 266.0 1 263.7 4.5 20.0 483.7 1091.6 77.8 343.3 157.2 287.6 687.8 456.9 5 646.9 5 718.2 0.6
Indikator ME MAE 1 086.9 943.2 4 715.8 4 791.5 249.6 186.2 117.9 89.1 1 252.1 -187.1 1 306.9 1 260.0 382.5 360.7 1 879.7 1 617.4 1 900.1 1 900.1 1 203.4 954.0 810.2 441.8 7 735.9 -7 542.6 13 700.2 13 102.9 7 619.5 5 560.4
689.5 334.7 1 863.5 249.3 21.2 143.5 72.1 68.5 69.8 224.4 1 129.5 3.6 16.8 435.3 946.4 58.5 260.8 115.3 259.0 600.1 384.6 5 156.8 5 130.2 0.5
Root Mean Square Error Mean Absolute Error Mean Error Theil 's Inequality Coeflcient
168.2 276.6 1 863.5 235.1 13.5 116.9 5 1.8 32.6 59.6 69.4 1 129.5 1.9 11.1 -1 12.4 285.5 41.5 199.3 113.5 168.5 -11.1 -63.8 4 714.3 4 650.6 -0.4
U-Theil 0.1285 0.1498 0.1725 0.1 137 0.07 17 0.1226 0.0755 0.08 19 0.2000 0.0579 0.0582 0.0273 0.0854 0.0206
0.0457 0.0290 0.0822 0.0412 0.0575 0.0442 0.077 1 0.0370 0.0686 0.0395 0.121 1 0.0900 0.0694 0.0769 0.0463 0.0586 0.0574 0.1851 0.0544 0.0422 0.0654 0.0374 0.0363 0.0679
Lampiran 10. Ringkasan Proyeksi Ekonomi Model Ekonometrika Indonesia Tahun 200 1 - 2005
Input-Output
(Miliar Rp) 414 495
428 675
444 187
463 608
487 036
1796186
295112
302840
312486
324462
Investasi
76527
79183
81992
85664
90157
Pengeluaran Pemerintah
29 570
30 198
30 824
31 555
32 395
Ekspor
143475
144761
148055
162452
172884
lmpor
123371
120578
119524
128548
132861
1 963
2 015
2 072
2 147
2 239
Total Output
884824
896686
924825
990878
1069493
Pertanian
115716
114708
115821
121497
129384
62205
60648
60152
63121
65457
346739
354981
370266
403087
441 881
LGA
11794
11282
11450
12449
13835
Konstmksi
74 880
75 888
78 220
82 521
88 387
112081
114 195
118002
125 739
134812
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
64439
63 374
64 053
68 976
75 784
Lembaga Keuangan
38 901
39015
39 899
42 470
45 905
Pernerintahan dan Pertahanan
24 179
24464
24 754
25 153
25 629
Jasa
33891
38131
42207
45866
48418
124231
128684
136867
150445
165908
Pertanian
9 646
9 764
10 054
10727
5 048
5 457
5 938
34 150
35 386
38 029
42 71 1
92 1
989
1 098
67801
11551
Pertambangan dan Penggalian
1 286
477600 785 1 523
Produk Domestik Bruto
Konsumsi
PDB per kapita
Pertambangan dan Penggalian Industri Manufaktur
Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran
Total Pendapatan
Industri Manufaktur LGA
9532
10 110
10 888
1 1 934
13 209
Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran
Konstruksi
14962
15 150
15 632
16 742
18 148
Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi
19436
18992
19054
20263
21 839
8 681
8 407
8 419
8 871
9 570
Pemerintahan dan Pertahanan
10 195
10487
11 119
11 495
12 086
Jasa
11 610
13 942
16 635
19 636
22 597
Lembaga Keuangan
(Ribu Orang) Total Tenaga Kerja
Pertanian Pertambangan dan Penggalian Industri Manufaktur LGA
Konstmksi Perdagangan, Hotel, dan Restoran Pengangkutan dan Komunikasi Lembaga Keuangan Pemerintahan dan Pertahanan Jasa
91 757
91 893
93 341
96 838
100 525
39483
38 873
38 685
39410
40543
977
983
1 000
1 073
1 134
12748
13026
13585
14600
15546
175
171
176
191
21 1
3 149
3 122
3 154
3 253
3 396
16767
16460
16419
16 802
17 192
4 057
3 878
3 824
4 009
4 276
530
488
469
478
50 1
2 938
2 890
2 942
2 930
2 978
10933
12003
13 087
14091
14 749
