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LAMPIRAN

295 Lampiran 1. Hasil Estimasi Fungsi Variance Produksi Kentang Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran di Kecamatan Pangalengan, Kabupaten Bandung dengan Menggunakan GARCH (1,1) Program Eviews Versi 4.1 Dependent Variable: LOG(PRDKT) Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 03/17/07 Time: 21:47 Sample: 1 429 Included observations: 429 Convergence achieved after 14 iterations Variance backcast: ON

C LOG(LHGKT) LOG(PBNHKT) LOG(PPKNKT) LOG(PPKPKT) LOG(PPKKT) LOG(TKKT) LOG(PESKT) C ARCH(1) GARCH(1) LOG(LHGKT) LOG(PBNHKT) LOG(PPKNKT) LOG(PPKPKT) LOG(PPKKT) LOG(TKKT) LOG(PESKT) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat

Coefficient 8.128500 0.081500 0.076096 0.080613 -0.073362 -0.055747 0.093216 0.062188 0.076795 0.216454 0.327662 -0.001792 -0.015695 0.005400 0.000763 0.002616 0.003520 -0.001806 0.329445 0.301710 0.155332 9.916570 223.8894 1.503757

Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. 0.502056 16.19041 0.0000 0.008550 9.532253 0.0000 0.036245 2.099471 0.0358 0.020718 3.891004 0.0001 0.020000 -3.668048 0.0002 0.020824 -2.677027 0.0074 0.020610 4.522820 0.0000 0.020620 3.015877 0.0026 Variance Equation 0.062150 1.235646 0.2166 0.081986 2.640147 0.0083 0.135096 2.425400 0.0153 0.001599 -1.120780 0.2624 0.006316 -2.485088 0.0130 0.002974 1.815526 0.0694 0.002669 0.285800 0.7750 0.003753 0.697059 0.4858 0.004661 0.755185 0.4501 0.002403 -0.751769 0.4522 Mean dependent var 9.918944 S.D. dependent var 0.185884 Akaike info criterion -0.959857 Schwarz criterion -0.789446 F-statistic 11.87797 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

296 Lampiran 2. Hasil Estimasi Fungsi Variance Produksi Kubis Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran di Kecamatan Pangalengan, Kabupaten Bandung dengan Menggunakan GARCH (1,1) Program Eviews Versi 4.1

Dependent Variable: LOG(PRDKB) Method: ML - ARCH (Marquardt) Date: 03/18/07 Time: 10:50 Sample: 1 429 Included observations: 429 Convergence achieved after 6 iterations Variance backcast: ON Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. C 9.671516 0.192362 50.27772 0.0000 LOG(LHGKB) 0.051083 0.006388 7.997019 0.0000 LOG(PBNHKB) -0.043187 0.026398 -1.636016 0.1018 LOG(PPKNKB) 0.031334 0.009944 3.151012 0.0016 LOG(PNPKB) 0.002310 0.001786 1.293839 0.1957 LOG(TKKB) 0.049658 0.010956 4.532528 0.0000 LOG(PESKB) 0.022334 0.004745 4.706460 0.0000 Variance Equation C 0.000855 0.001526 0.560578 0.5751 ARCH(1) 0.003883 0.023885 0.162555 0.8709 GARCH(1) 0.725948 0.025232 28.77107 0.0000 LOG(LHGKB) 0.000500 0.000111 4.495939 0.0000 LOG(PBNHKB) -0.000121 0.000193 -0.628938 0.5294 LOG(PPKNKB) -0.000199 0.000213 -0.934059 0.3503 LOG(PNPKB) -0.000042 4.85E-05 -0.875238 0.3814 LOG(TKKB) -0.000073 0.000238 -0.307943 0.7581 LOG(PESKB) 0.000221 0.000112 1.982893 0.0474 R-squared 0.280205 Mean dependent var 10.15919 Adjusted R-squared 0.254062 S.D. dependent var 0.068388 S.E. of regression 0.059065 Akaike info criterion -3.025148 Sum squared resid 1.440829 Schwarz criterion -2.873671 Log likelihood 664.8942 F-statistic 10.71828 Durbin-Watson stat 1.798831 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

297 Lampiran 3. Program Komputer Estimasi, Validasi dan Simulasi Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Menggunakan Program SAS Versi 9.0 File > Import Data > Microsoft Excel > D\my document\dt.olah > Sheet 8 > work > Anfar DATA OLAH; SET anfar; PKT = LHGKT *PRDKT; TKDKT = TKPDKT + TKWDKT; TKLKT = TKPLKT +TKWLKT; PKB = LHGKB *PRDKB; NPPKT = PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK; NPPKB = PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK; KONS = PPANG + PNPG; PENG = KONS + PKS + PPEND; TPOF = PPOF + PWOF; TBUKT = HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT; TBUKB = HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB UWON*TKWLKB; PUTKT = PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT; PUTKB = PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB; TPNF = PPNF + PWNF; TPUT = PUTKT + PUTKB +PUNTB; TPRT = TPUT + TPOF + TPNF; run;

+ +

PROC SYSLIN 2SLS DATA= OLAH OUTEST=HASIL; endogenous LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB; instruments EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB HBNHKT SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT SDPRDKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB UPOF UWOF UPON UWON HPPKN HPPKP HPPKK HPNPK JAKP JAKW HBNHKB UPNF UWNF PENDP PENDW JART JAKSEK; Model LHGKT Model PRDKT * PKT Model PBNHKT

= HPPKP UPON SDPRDKT SDHRGKT LHGKB PESKT; = EXPHRGKT HPPKN PBNHKT SDPRDKT UPON; = LHGKT *PRDKT; = HBNHKT LHGKT EXPHRGKT EXPRDKT TBUKT TKDKT SDPRDKT SDPRDTB/NOINT; Model PPKNKT = HPPKN LHGKT SDPRDTB SDPRDKT; Model PPKPKT = HPPKP TKDKT EXPRDKT INVES SDHRGKT; Model PESKT = LHGKT SDHRGKT SDPRDKT; *NPPKT = PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK; Model TKPDKT = TKPLKT TKPNF TKPOF EXPHRGKT PPKNKT SDPRDKT TKPDKB; Model TKWDKT = UWON TKWNF PESKT NPPKT SDPRDKT; Model TKPLKT = LHGKT SDHRGKT EXPRDKT NPPKT; Model TKWLKT = EXPRDKT TKWDKT SDHRGKT SDPRDKT; IDENTITY TKDKT = TKPDKT + TKWDKT;

298 IDENTITY TKLKT Model LHGKB Model PRDKB *PKB Model PBNHKB Model PNPKB * NPPKB Model PESKB Model TKPDKB Model TKWDKB Model TKPLKB Model TKWLKB Model TKPOF Model TKWOF Model TKPNF Model TKWNF Model PPOF Model PWOF Model PPNF Model PWNF Model PPANG Model PNPG Model PKS Model PPEND Model TAB Model INVES IDENTITY KONS IDENTITY PENG IDENTITY TPOF *TBUKT *TBUKB *PUTKT *PUTKB IDENTITY TPNF IDENTITY TPUT IDENTITY TPRT run; Quit;

= TKPLKT +TKWLKT; = UPON NPPKB LHGKT EXPRDKB SDHRGKB SDPRDKB PESKB; = PESKB SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT SDPRDKB NPPKB; = LHGKB *PRDKB; = EXPHRGKB SDPRDKB TBUKB INVES SDHRGKB TKPDKB; = EXPHRGKB SDHRGKB HPPKP TBUKB; = PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK; = SDHRGKB EXPRDKB SDPRDKB PBNHKB TAB LHGKT/NOINT; = JAKP EXPHRGKB TKPNF UPON SDHRGKB; =JAKW EXPHRGKB EXPRDKB SDHRGKB INVES TKWNF UWON; = UPON SDHRGKB EXPHRGKB PNPKB PBNHKB LHGKT TPRT /NOINT; = UWON SDHRGKB INVES; = UPOF EXPHRGKT PENG SDPRDKT SDHRGKT TAB; = UWOF JAKW SDPRDKB EXPRDKT PWNF TBUKT; = UPNF TKPDKT JAKP TPUT PENDP TKPOF SDPRDKT INVES; = UWNF PENG EXPHRGKT SDPRDKT PENDW; = TKPOF UPOF SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB EXPRDKT; = TKWOF UWOF SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKB SDPRDKT; = TKPNF UPNF TPOF TPUT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT /NOINT; = UWNF EXPHRGKB TBUKT PENG SDPRDKT/NOINT; = JART TPRT EXPRDKB EXPRDKT SDPRDKT; = SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT TPRT EXPHRGKT/NOINT; = PPEND TPRT SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKT/NOINT; = JAKSEK TPRT PENDP PENDW SDHRGKT SDHRGKB TAB/NOINT; = TPRT KONS PPEND SDHRGKT EXPRDKT; = TPRT SDPRDKT EXPRDKT; = PPANG + PNPG; = KONS + PKS +PPEND; = PPOF + PWOF; = HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT + UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT; = HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB + UWON*TKWLKB; = PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT; = PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB; = PPNF + PWNF; = PUTKT + PUTKB; = TPUT + TPOF + TPNF;

/* DATA SIMULASI*/ DATA SIMULASI; SET OLAH; *SDPRDKT =1.05*SDPRDKT; *SDHRGKB=1.05*SDHRGKB; *UPON=1.2*UPON; *UWON=1.2*UWON; run; DATA STRAT; SET SIMULASI; IF LARE <=0.50 THEN STRATA=1; IF LARE >0.50 AND LARE <=1 THEN STRATA=2; IF LARE >1 THEN STRATA=3; run;

299 DATA STRAT1 SET STRAT; IF STRATA=1 IF STRATA=2 IF STRATA=3 run;

STRAT2 STRAT3; THEN OUTPUT STRAT1; THEN OUTPUT STRAT2; THEN OUTPUT STRAT3;

PROC MODEL DATA=SIMULASI; Endo LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB; EXO EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB HBNHKT SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT SDPRDKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB UPOF UWOF UPON UWON HPPKN HPPKP HPPKK HPNPK JAKP JAKW HBNHKB UPNF UWNF PENDP PENDW JART JAKSEK; LHGKT

=

1 HPPKP UPON SDPRDKT SDHRGKT LHGKB PESKT

* * * * * * *

PRDKT

=

1 EXPHRGKT HPPKN PBNHKT SDPRDKT UPON

* 97716.370000 * 3.935280 * -0.350660 * 9.404099 *-672648.700000 * -0.132970

+ + + + + ;

PBNHKT =

HBNHKT LHGKT EXPHRGKT EXPRDKT TBUKT TKDKT SDPRDKT

* * * * * * *

-0.087660 14.290960 0.108420 0.005535 0.000052 0.375996 -2375.740000

+ + + + + + ;

PPKNKT =

HPPKN LHGKT EXPRDKT SDPRDKT TKLKT

* * * * *

-0.06814 5.677659 0.001767 -1557.38000 0.063509

+ + + + ;

PPKPKT =

1 HPPKP TKDKT EXPRDKT INVES SDHRGKT

* * * * * *

607.47990 -0.11680 0.05860 0.00180 -0.000008 -0.02670

+ + + + + ;

PESKT

1 LHGKT

*8035414.0000 * 175255.4000

=

1.9842440 -0.0004700 -0.0000020 -4.1356400 -0.0005400 1.6983390 -0.0000001

+ + + + + + ;

+ +

300 SDHRGKT SDPRDKT

* -2964.4400 *-6896195.0000

+ ;

TKPDKT =

1 TKPLKT TKPNF TKPOF EXPHRGKT PPKNKT SDPRDKT TKPDKB

* * * * * * * *

+ + + + + + + ;

TKWDKT =

1 UWON TKWNF PESKT NPPKT SDPRDKT

* * * * * *

956.96530 -0.01699 -0.38002 -0.00007 -0.00012 -220.81200

+ + + + + ;

TKPLKT =

1 LHGKT SDHRGKT EXPRDKT NPPKT

* * * * *

342.05210 58.34699 -0.15795 0.00099 -0.00004

+ + + + ;

TKWLKT =

1 EXPRDKT TKWDKT SDHRGKT SDPRDKT

* * * * *

274.89630 0.00136 -0.36403 -0.00889 -457.63700

+ + + + ;

LHGKB

=

1 UPON NPPKB LHGKT EXPRDKB SDHRGKB SDPRDKB PESKB

* * * * * * * *

PRDKB

=

1 PESKB SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT SDPRDKB NPPKB

* 35573.37000 * -0.00009 * -0.41621 * -1.31832 * -18062.30000 * -0.00272

+ + + + + ;

PBNHKB =

EXPRDKB SDPRDKB TKPDKB LHGKB

* * * *

+ + + ;

PNPKB

1 EXPHRGKB SDHRGKB HPPKP TBUKB

* * * * *

=

717.6339 -1.0149 -0.0511 -0.1457 0.0120 0.2848 -3660.6000 1.0298

0.6463100 -0.0000023 -0.0000003 0.5552930 0.0000087 -0.0000900 -0.0835900 -0.00000001

0.0055 -119.0260 0.7179 25.9652 224.508400 0.140892 -0.078980 -0.030470 -0.000001

+ + + + + + + ;

+ + + + ;

301 PESKB

=

SDHRGKB EXPRDKB SDPRDKB PBNHKB TAB LHGKT

* -1023.3900 * 161.3410 *-11850000.0000 * 11414.8400 * -0.0256 * 478.4366

+ + + + + ;

TKPDKB =

1 JAKP EXPHRGKB TKPNF UPON SDHRGKB

* * * * * *

24.00185 44.64520 0.05122 -0.15156 -0.00105 -0.03900

+ + + + + ;

TKWDKB =

1 JAKW EXPHRGKB EXPRDKB SDHRGKB INVES TKWNF UWON

* * * * * * * *

21.983260 29.642540 0.059671 0.000118 -0.008770 -0.000009 -0.114220 -0.007600

+ + + + + + + ;

TKPLKB =

UPON SDHRGKB EXPHRGKB PNPKB PBNHKB LHGKT TPRT

* * * * * * *

-0.00207000 -0.01725000 0.00552400 0.04120400 0.56817600 -4.04005000 0.00000005

+ + + + + + ;

TKWLKB =

1 UWON SDHRGKB INVES

* * * *

119.3898000 -0.0012300 -0.0458000 -0.0000065

+ + + ;

TKPOF

=

1 UPOF EXPHRGKT PENG SDPRDKT SDHRGKT TAB

* * * * * * *

42.8244200 0.0113580 -0.0227800 0.0000002 42.9405300 0.0103420 0.0000003

+ + + + + + ;

TKWOF

=

1 UWOF JAKW SDPRDKB EXPRDKT PWNF TBUKT

* * * * * * *

-20.653700 + 0.020218 + 6.490966 + 211.306000 + -0.000130 + -0.00000005+ 0.00000028;

TKPNF

=

1 UPNF TKPDKT JAKP TPUT

* * * * *

-78.62900 0.00096 -0.21333 64.86785 -0.0000003

+ + + + +

302 PENDP TKPOF SDPRDKT INVES

* * * *

5.22430 -0.01436 411.20520 0.00000575

+ + + ;

108.6744 0.002599 0.000003 -0.06843 43.46911 6.204705

+ + + + + ;

TKWNF

=

1 UWNF PENG EXPHRGKT SDPRDKT PENDW

* * * * * *

PPOF

=

1 TKPOF UPOF SDHRGKB EXPHRGKT EXPHRGKB EXPRDKT

* * * * * * *

64889.5000 7948.5740 43.3240 280.8195 -4.5572 -97.3236 -3.9076

+ + + + + + ;

PWOF

=

1 TKWOF UWOF SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKB SDPRDKT

* 569356.1000 * 5573.7610 * 37.9492 * 85.7367 * -1.7020 * -1.1385 * 1130238.0000 * 3140807.0000

+ + + + + + + ;

PPNF

=

TKPNF UPNF TPOF TPUT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT

* * * * * *

11831.1400 393.4190 -0.2676 -0.0080 8651.2380 4719935.0000

+ + + + + ;

PWNF

=

UWNF EXPHRGKB TBUKT PENG SDPRDKT

* * * * *

400.8930 -1105.28000 0.00227 0.00643 4751146.00000

+ + + + ;

PPANG

=

1 JART TPRT EXPRDKB EXPRDKT SDPRDKT

* 827766.40000 * 677301.10000 * 0.01083 * 89.07011 * 26.54464 * -9814905.0000

+ + + + + ;

PNPG

=

SDHRGKT SDHRGKB SDPRDKT TPRT EXPHRGKT

* -12634.1000 * -1348.4700 * -8566740.0000 * 0.0144 * 6266.2700

+ + + + ;

PKS

=

PPEND TPRT

* *

+ +

-0.10796 0.00119

303 SDHRGKB EXPRDKT EXPRDKB SDPRDKT

* -176.96400 * 29.36982 * 26.56246 * -3219789.00000

+ + + ;

PPEND

=

JAKSEK TPRT PENDP PENDW SDHRGKT SDHRGKB TAB

* * * * * * *

1640931.0000 0.0083 78480.8400 106136.9000 -2354.7500 -216.2270 -0.0990

+ + + + + + ;

TAB

=

1 TPRT KONS PPEND SDHRGKT EXPRDKT

* * * * * *

3839788.0000 0.0268 -0.0107 -0.0276 -1441.8600 111.8079

+ + + + + ;

INVES

=

1 TPRT SDPRDKT EXPRDKT

* 559373.3000 * 0.0021 * -1746869.0000 * 21.1887

+ + + ;

PKT TKDKT TKLKT PKB NPPKT NPPKB KONS PENG TPOF TBUKT

= LHGKT *PRDKT; = TKPDKT + TKWDKT; = TKPLKT +TKWLKT; = LHGKB *PRDKB; = PPKNKT*HPPKN+PPKPKT*HPPKP+PPKKT*HPPKK; = PPKNKB*HPPKN+PPKPKB*HPPKP+PNPKB*HPNPK; = PPANG + PNPG; = KONS + PKS + PPEND; = PPOF + PWOF; = HBNHKT*PBNHKT + HPPKN*PPKNKT + HPPKP*PPKPKT + PESKT UPON*TKPLKT + UWON*TKWLKT; = HBNHKB*PBNHKB + HPNPK*PNPKB + PESKB + UPON*TKPLKB UWON*TKWLKB; = PKT*EXPHRGKT -LHGKT*TBUKT; = PKB*EXPHRGKB - LHGKB*TBUKB; = PPNF + PWNF; = PUTKT + PUTKB +PUNTB; = TPUT + TPOF + TPNF;

TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB TPNF TPUT TPRT

+ +

SOLVE LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB/ STAT THEIL SEIDEL DATA= STRAT1 OUT=OUTSIM OUTPREDICT; run; Quit;

304 Lampiran 4. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sempit Actual Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

N Obs 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

N 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

Mean 0.4390 19420.1 8495.8 1526.8 411.3 457.8 5274131 405.6 284.7 178.2 135.3 690.3 313.5 0.3829 25241.4 9751.3 254.3 313.0 5249758 148.8 92.4433 145.8 107.9 35.2903 27.3871 70.4194 34.5484 11131222 12930642 369944 193783 563727 20293777 8941579 12181729 7358978 5927823 2268388 8196211 22618442 31378380 4902074 6229148 386290 1413129 4868705 685242 1912424 1918356

Predicted

Std Dev 0.1720 2137.3 3443.3 186.5 92.4668 97.1349 1504425 166.4 281.9 91.8396 126.9 338.7 164.8 0.1330 975.7 3601.3 26.2064 101.6 2708408 38.4083 84.3681 37.8622 50.4946 63.3135 64.7893 158.8 94.5189 11673492 12623948 720218 493825 925614 3098766 2940803 5130213 3531135 29493775 13758750 42407594 8433983 46326867 2442178 10742758 368143 1583809 1804939 1237729 301031 347372

Mean 0.4698 19850.0 9323.2 1524.5 404.2 452.6 5596032 321.7 178.0 227.9 170.7 499.7 398.6 0.4356 25564.6 11248.1 251.6 298.5 6063044 134.6 76.6204 135.4 96.2975 35.6439 28.7755 62.6632 43.8547 12995049 15006429 377725 206363 584087 21285925 9498568 13315410 8367415 5899192 2161512 8060704 21682825 30327617 5232019 7763029 674105 1337275 5949737 780960 1358891 1109335

Std Dev 0.1457 779.7 2911.1 83.2465 14.7459 17.7278 402776 41.1949 47.0109 25.8614 19.0909 57.8414 33.1889 0.1229 1143.0 3524.9 9.9693 22.8202 757816 20.1469 18.9115 8.3216 9.3642 55.6943 58.9453 98.0147 90.7882 3806205 5140066 657027 444329 888698 2175674 922141 4399890 3487806 27299267 13108431 39371350 6966290 41370670 1243232 2968213 276902 1534970 1169034 280954 76913.9 96772.5

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Statistics of fit Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB

N

Mean Error

62 0.0308 62 429.9 62 827.4 62 -2.2833 62 -7.0239 62 -5.2213 62 321901 62 -83.8289 62 -106.7 62 49.6810 62 35.3762 62 -190.6 62 85.0572 62 0.0527

Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs Error Error % Error 11.0203 3.3886 14.7143 1.1910 3.2379 3.1608 13.5183 -8.1144 6649.8 70.6293 5512.8 -5.2029 85.1998 19.8021

0.0471 1826.0 1312.1 154.6 66.5154 80.8540 1302278 129.5 240.4 82.2237 114.0 282.5 148.2 0.0866

13.4765 9.5196 18.2285 10.0874 17.2090 18.1308 26.2853 29.4310 6715.6 80.8678 5539.2 43.5052 96.0277 27.8081

RMS Error 0.0531 2308.1 1651.9 195.2 88.6616 94.8121 1537997 172.7 289.4 96.9365 126.8 374.3 177.7 0.1036

RMS % Error R-Square 17.0453 11.9629 23.3608 12.5388 24.0653 21.6651 31.4574 36.1456 10910.4 123.1 9513.5 58.0257 172.0 37.2413

0.9033 -.1852 0.7661 -.1129 0.0655 0.0316 -.0623 -.0947 -.0712 -.1323 -.0163 -.2413 -.1813 0.3827

305 PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

323.2 1496.9 -2.7491 -14.5596 813286 -14.2235 -15.8229 -10.4251 -11.5603 0.3536 1.3885 -7.7562 9.3063 1863827 2075787 7780.3 12579.8 20360.1 992147 556988 1133681 1008437 -28631.7 -101863 -135507 -935616 -1050763 329945 1533881 287815 -75854.6 1081032 95718.5 -553533 -809021

1.3462 22.3000 -0.1499 1273.2 34.5278 -5.0883 2880.0 0.2991 2.4256 77.2942 24.9137 2960.9 2136.4 62.4857 57.5338 -980798 -135683 56317.1 6.5253 13.8252 15.1680 24.9544 -8.332E7 -3.969E7 -5.053E7 -0.1510 3.4920 25.0066 187.5 277.2 -1.394E7 41.2406 211.0 -27.2816 -40.2353

882.7 2484.6 19.1797 67.7454 2168320 28.2358 74.8205 32.2440 31.5064 17.6392 15.1850 77.4117 49.0281 6629942 7239440 175126 108492 206288 2362037 2175396 2606791 1995486 3511910 960645 4057331 3563846 6479528 1812973 5491061 498400 998004 1534390 723676 555672 809021

3.5284 31.3573 7.7268 1293.3 46.9902 17.7683 2933.7 23.6061 27.9548 597.9 362.9 3336.2 2566.2 76.5303 71.7475 5421321 2422461 2454936 12.1670 24.9852 23.5325 36.9796 1.0255E8 39691886 56378280 16.3591 24.6501 42.9250 201.1 305.4 18393050 47.2997 229.3 27.4383 40.2353

1108.9 3025.3 23.5956 99.6380 2820373 39.2877 83.0263 39.7275 49.6371 29.8685 33.5546 127.7 76.5165 11288897 11874948 309562 241507 360630 2896392 2904250 3618723 2543302 7030513 2435613 7642598 4912596 10700109 2418127 10512783 565507 1263166 1892330 1235865 623625 879875

4.4684 42.2149 9.9459 5885.7 57.1532 23.3128 4735.6 32.2044 35.1887 993.8 694.6 5400.7 3344.7 95.7853 89.7867 9381198 4543738 4270086 15.2123 30.4315 30.0289 55.5260 1.3735E8 45710471 77589008 21.1368 44.6599 55.6110 314.7 492.6 35005272 82.3325 357.6 29.6296 42.0885

-.3129 0.2828 0.1760 0.0216 -.1022 -.0635 0.0157 -.1190 0.0178 0.7738 0.7274 0.3426 0.3339 0.0495 0.1006 0.8122 0.7569 0.8457 0.1120 0.0087 0.4943 0.4727 0.9422 0.9681 0.9670 0.6552 0.9458 0.0035 0.0267 -.3981 0.3535 -.1172 -.0133 -.3626 -.5213

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Theil Forecast Error Statistics

Variable N LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB

62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

MSE 0.00282 5327104 2728646 38102.0 7860.9 8989.3 2.365E12 29828.9 83754.2 9396.7 16090.5 140115 31573.5 0.0107 1229692 9152195 556.8 9927.7 7.955E12 1543.5 6893.4 1578.3 2463.8 892.1 1125.9 16311.5 5854.8 1.274E14 1.41E14 9.583E10 5.833E10 1.301E11 8.389E12 8.435E12 1.31E13 6.468E12

Corr (R) 0.98 -0.02 0.91 0.10 0.30 0.19 0.10 0.45 0.31 0.43 0.28 0.32 0.32 0.76 0.50 0.72 0.44 0.21 0.12 0.33 0.23 0.01 0.28 0.88 0.85 0.59 0.66 0.28 0.36 0.90 0.87 0.92 0.51 0.23 0.75 0.78

MSE Decomposition Proportions Bias Reg Dist Var Covar (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC)

Inequality Coef U1 U

0.34 0.03 0.25 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.24 0.14 0.26 0.08 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.08 0.24 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.13 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.04 0.10 0.16

0.1127 0.1181 0.1804 0.1269 0.2104 0.2027 0.2806 0.3944 0.7252 0.4843 0.6866 0.4876 0.5025 0.2559 0.0439 0.2913 0.0923 0.3030 0.4783 0.2557 0.6658 0.2638 0.4174 0.4146 0.4803 0.7402 0.7658 0.7028 0.6597 0.3848 0.4585 0.3347 0.1411 0.3088 0.2741 0.3121

0.17 0.12 0.02 0.11 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.34 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.09

0.49 0.84 0.73 0.89 0.97 1.00 0.93 0.73 0.85 0.72 0.90 0.72 0.76 0.70 0.57 0.66 0.98 0.98 0.89 0.84 0.96 0.89 0.94 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.85 0.97 0.97 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.84 0.96 0.88 0.76

0.24 0.34 0.10 0.28 0.76 0.69 0.50 0.52 0.65 0.46 0.71 0.55 0.54 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.47 0.61 0.47 0.21 0.61 0.54 0.68 0.06 0.03 0.22 0.00 0.48 0.39 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.48 0.04 0.00

0.42 0.62 0.65 0.72 0.24 0.31 0.45 0.25 0.22 0.28 0.21 0.19 0.23 0.73 0.89 0.75 0.52 0.36 0.45 0.66 0.35 0.39 0.27 0.94 0.97 0.77 0.98 0.49 0.58 0.96 0.96 0.99 0.78 0.49 0.86 0.84

0.0551 0.0586 0.0873 0.0637 0.1074 0.1030 0.1387 0.2266 0.4963 0.2257 0.3559 0.2946 0.2358 0.1209 0.0218 0.1365 0.0465 0.1586 0.2349 0.1356 0.4078 0.1388 0.2302 0.2168 0.2485 0.4431 0.3824 0.3815 0.3508 0.1987 0.2383 0.1689 0.0691 0.1533 0.1330 0.1478

306 PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

4.943E13 5.933E12 5.841E13 2.413E13 1.145E14 5.847E12 1.105E14 3.198E11 1.596E12 3.581E12 1.527E12 3.889E11 7.742E11

0.97 0.98 0.98 0.82 0.98 0.28 0.22 -0.14 0.67 0.51 0.10 0.27 0.13

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.26 0.00 0.33 0.01 0.79 0.85

0.04 0.03 0.10 0.00 0.13 0.05 0.00 0.33 0.14 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00

0.96 0.97 0.90 0.96 0.86 0.93 0.98 0.41 0.86 0.66 0.98 0.21 0.15

0.10 0.07 0.16 0.09 0.21 0.24 0.54 0.03 0.00 0.11 0.59 0.13 0.08

0.90 0.93 0.84 0.88 0.78 0.74 0.44 0.72 0.99 0.56 0.40 0.09 0.07

0.2355 0.1761 0.1783 0.2037 0.1923 0.4422 0.8517 1.0638 0.5978 0.3648 0.8790 0.3222 0.4514

0.1221 0.0902 0.0924 0.1048 0.1003 0.2230 0.5092 0.4490 0.3052 0.1682 0.5529 0.1892 0.2873

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

N 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61

Relative Change Corr Bias MSE (R) (UM) 0.0294 0.46 0.39 0.0148 0.63 0.04 0.0515 0.49 0.35 0.0173 0.55 0.00 0.0631 0.72 0.00 0.0514 0.73 0.01 0.1047 0.65 0.03 0.2090 0.48 0.11 37814.8 0.73 0.09 0.7283 0.74 0.33 5362.5 0.73 0.00 0.4721 0.75 0.20 1.5428 0.69 0.17 0.1511 0.43 0.26 0.00195 0.48 0.08 0.1933 0.48 0.26 0.00873 0.70 0.01 72.1409 0.99 0.00 0.3019 0.52 0.19 0.0603 0.59 0.08 2895.5 0.76 0.05 0.0898 0.81 0.06 0.1452 0.69 0.01 394.1 0.91 0.04 994.4 0.87 0.00 9413.5 0.68 0.00 5694.5 0.67 0.01 5.9477 0.45 0.01 5.9527 0.55 0.00 5.012E10 0.92 0.02 5.094E10 0.89 0.00 2.131E10 0.94 0.01 0.0222 0.79 0.10 0.0971 0.61 0.09 0.0966 0.70 0.17 0.3377 0.92 0.15 1.507E13 0.99 0.00 5.995E12 0.98 0.00 5.021E12 1.00 0.01 0.0584 0.70 0.01 0.1665 0.94 0.00 0.3746 0.63 0.05 125.7 0.40 0.00 13.4696 0.39 0.15 6.697E11 0.78 0.01 0.2271 0.87 0.29 23.4346 0.51 0.00 0.1168 0.75 0.76 0.2206 0.69 0.84

MSE Decomposition Proportions Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 0.32 0.29 0.06 0.55 1.5766 0.08 0.89 0.03 0.93 0.8252 0.22 0.43 0.01 0.64 1.2921 0.08 0.92 0.05 0.95 0.8686 0.00 1.00 0.18 0.81 0.6876 0.01 0.98 0.26 0.74 0.6859 0.00 0.97 0.18 0.79 0.7582 0.16 0.73 0.01 0.88 1.0137 0.18 0.73 0.58 0.33 0.7033 0.23 0.44 0.05 0.62 0.9673 0.00 1.00 0.13 0.87 0.6001 0.00 0.80 0.15 0.65 0.7158 0.39 0.44 0.12 0.72 1.0254 0.63 0.10 0.36 0.38 2.7597 0.31 0.62 0.01 0.92 1.1077 0.62 0.12 0.34 0.40 2.4824 0.03 0.96 0.06 0.93 0.7256 0.03 0.97 0.06 0.94 0.1184 0.15 0.66 0.00 0.80 1.0250 0.19 0.74 0.00 0.92 0.9394 0.11 0.84 0.45 0.50 0.6193 0.04 0.90 0.26 0.68 0.6136 0.00 0.98 0.14 0.85 0.7199 0.11 0.85 0.02 0.94 0.4066 0.00 1.00 0.07 0.92 0.4607 0.00 0.99 0.14 0.86 0.6896 0.13 0.86 0.00 0.99 0.7517 0.00 0.99 0.37 0.62 0.8709 0.01 0.99 0.39 0.61 0.8172 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.3715 0.00 0.99 0.10 0.90 0.4341 0.03 0.96 0.00 0.99 0.3223 0.02 0.88 0.03 0.87 0.6464 0.07 0.84 0.04 0.87 0.8510 0.21 0.62 0.02 0.82 0.8898 0.45 0.40 0.29 0.55 0.5867 0.09 0.91 0.13 0.87 0.1399 0.03 0.97 0.07 0.93 0.1755 0.28 0.71 0.32 0.67 0.1078 0.29 0.70 0.04 0.96 0.8351 0.01 0.99 0.07 0.93 0.3352 0.18 0.77 0.00 0.95 0.8561 0.01 0.99 0.57 0.43 0.9033 0.47 0.38 0.08 0.77 1.3939 0.01 0.98 0.05 0.94 0.5883 0.08 0.63 0.00 0.70 0.5930 0.01 0.99 0.41 0.58 0.8223 0.02 0.22 0.11 0.13 1.4066 0.01 0.15 0.08 0.08 1.8561

Coef U 0.5548 0.4381 0.5219 0.4806 0.4042 0.4157 0.4352 0.5347 0.4905 0.3957 0.3288 0.4249 0.4112 0.6736 0.5099 0.6452 0.4001 0.0601 0.4814 0.4681 0.3930 0.3669 0.4171 0.1952 0.2456 0.3946 0.3780 0.5695 0.5306 0.1862 0.2325 0.1602 0.3330 0.4431 0.3987 0.2474 0.0717 0.0899 0.0556 0.3893 0.1753 0.4134 0.6665 0.5346 0.3165 0.2749 0.5311 0.6295 0.6998

307 Lampiran 5. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Lahan Sedang Descriptive Statistics Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

Lampiran 5.

N Obs 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

N 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

Actual Mean Std Dev 1.1454 0.2538 20497.8 2282.5 23526.5 6308.7 1612.3 241.4 403.7 112.9 449.2 107.5 6151591 1758815 187.5 104.6 105.2 169.0 304.1 104.5 214.6 105.7 292.7 223.7 518.6 148.0 0.8804 0.2530 26150.0 813.0 23039.9 6758.4 251.4 15.3881 261.1 173.3 7335103 6408449 90.2115 35.2286 43.6185 65.6624 120.9 34.4763 78.4702 23.9858 19.7353 59.1425 5.2059 24.5243 28.0882 64.5475 16.8235 64.4344 16582753 19143592 18886106 20095595 201648 647087 25412.7 148175 227061 742135 22698608 2640566 10350895 6483278 32483715 13704966 13720201 8606834 672354 1800335 94118.6 548795 766472 1847156 50800024 19649024 51793557 19681860 5998753 3473068 10584000 18137998 1156941 3517702 1146412 1572449 6918803 2915841 1260162 1666627 1829216 340614 1756294 463797

Predicted Mean Std Dev 1.1277 0.2172 20465.1 895.5 23079.8 4599.2 1559.6 96.9470 414.5 18.5993 452.4 23.9191 5787453 303434 269.5 34.0567 140.1 60.4267 274.1 21.2440 186.1 28.8353 409.6 57.2370 460.2 35.8569 0.8395 0.1567 26099.6 1283.8 22020.1 4855.6 252.6 2.8047 280.9 25.4192 6326374 604988 115.7 19.0772 60.1265 24.2129 132.9 5.1181 92.3734 9.6846 16.7589 44.7226 3.0190 19.6489 43.3216 46.7148 31.4469 30.6959 13413954 3590442 15374709 4843051 175183 561334 7928.1 142940 183111 625074 21544667 1839178 9653332 697591 33001633 8488653 13734239 5662796 642069 4564947 203893 947558 438176 4617258 46735872 11680977 47357159 13004561 5568964 1214943 7844990 2648555 773778 239344 1186977 1404451 6484029 413456 800151 306564 1343018 90073.5 991761 129027

Lanjutan Statistics of fit

Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB

N 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs Error Error Error % Error -0.0177 -0.1759 0.1028 9.5503 -32.7100 0.8969 1742.7 8.6741 -446.7 0.6008 3026.8 12.6304 -52.6790 -1.6610 157.7 9.0471 10.7989 10.3944 81.5900 22.5039 3.2361 5.9113 80.8109 19.2221 -364138 1.5155 1509845 24.5655 81.9915 75.2833 116.1 82.8993 34.8956 7081.2 113.0 7103.7 -29.9420 5.1236 80.6368 32.4282 -28.4786 1364.9 86.2455 1402.7 116.9 105.7 197.6 116.5 -58.4206 -1.7201 126.6 27.4907 -0.0409 -0.00950 0.1500 17.6121

RMS Error 0.1332 2103.0 3863.9 235.9 110.7 97.9620 1775790 132.8 140.0 104.1 102.4 229.4 147.8 0.1900

RMS % Error R-Square 13.3813 0.7162 10.6100 0.1254 15.8974 0.6135 12.4984 0.0160 32.1320 0.0090 23.7521 0.1448 27.7452 -.0503 103.0 -.6607 9895.3 0.2927 51.9103 -.0222 4775.5 0.0345 154.0 -.0839 36.9273 -.0270 22.9933 0.4189

308 PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

-50.4485 -1019.7 1.1411 19.8225 -1008729 25.4495 16.5080 11.9478 13.9032 -2.9764 -2.1869 15.2334 14.6234 -3168799 -3511398 -26465.3 -17484.6 -43949.9 -1153942 -697563 517919 14037.1 -30284.4 -298012 -328296 -4064152 -4436398 -429789 -2739010 -383163 40564.5 -434774 -460010 -486197 -764533

-0.1099 1174.9 4.5053 1440.0 5.5406 0.2449 4234.5 18.9521 5425.5 25.3240 0.8218 11.4605 4.6713 14.8910 6.2713 7146.9 126.3 7172.4 166.7 13981.6 23.4667 3611335 53.4374 6322484 66.7599 41.1886 29.1448 43.5826 33.9997 57.0196 3057.4 45.8860 3079.0 56.9986 4289.0 18.9563 29.5754 29.1544 35.5968 39.4644 32.6817 23.1939 41.4966 28.0123 68.1497 103.2 13.9176 512.7 35.3105 670.7 -120.2 5.1011 411.6 7.8066 524.6 3297.4 53.0827 3534.2 74.9029 5762.0 2572.6 39.3139 2821.2 61.0632 3608.0 30.5318 9510785 62.3543 19637309 81.5429 31.3475 10970632 64.7199 20945001 83.4374 -109351 103151 4237895 260478 5435434 -1512594 37296.2 3493756 44876.9 4271743 -972892 119259 2831999 278769 3670502 -4.2180 2235788 9.6833 2740121 11.6556 14.5761 3928960 38.2343 6363065 45.9263 10.1489 7212969 24.5741 8757262 32.7141 -141.6 4765224 192.5 7248301 855.1 -1.175E8 2368203 1.1857E8 3456919 1.4441E8 -3.523E7 409743 35547880 514358 40552301 -7.121E7 2555363 71216129 3469364 86179380 -3.0980 9270342 17.2773 12125310 20.5586 -4.0633 9867275 18.1458 13061867 22.2464 13.2091 2108537 37.5709 3489026 51.4352 70.9765 7815743 105.6 18206026 152.5 213.6 1144085 231.5 3464894 393.9 -4204235 921854 17276945 1224199 29634361 11.8365 2342225 38.7711 2891220 51.7553 149.5 1115998 193.2 1651001 284.1 -24.2865 497743 25.1965 583123 27.8425 -38.4819 798204 42.1731 899341 44.8614

-.232 0.3360 0.0352 0.0463 -.0028 0.0403 0.2236 -.0984 -.4052 0.6327 0.8956 -.3874 0.0747 -.0841 -.1192 0.8331 0.9055 0.8546 -.1095 0.0076 0.5793 0.2693 -.799 0.0949 -.635 0.6077 0.5462 -.0398 -.0380 0.0004 0.3755 -.0130 -.0111 -.0208 -.8742

309 Lampiran 5.

Lanjutan Theil Forecast Error Statistics


N 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

Lampiran 5.

MSE 0.0177 4422538 14929557 55663.6 12256.5 9596.6 3.153E12 17645.4 19603.4 10838.8 10477.0 52641.8 21844.8 0.0361 2073678 29436174 221.7 27793.3 3.997E13 1156.0 3248.8 1267.1 784.7 1246.8 60.9426 5610.4 3728.7 3.856E14 4.387E14 6.785E10 2.0139E9 7.771E10 7.508E12 4.049E13 7.669E13 5.254E13 1.195E13 2.646E11 1.204E13 1.47E14 1.706E14 1.217E13 3.315E14 1.201E13 1.499E12 8.359E12 2.726E12 3.4E11 8.088E11

Corr (R) 0.85 0.36 0.79 0.28 0.14 0.44 0.07 0.12 0.65 0.26 0.34 0.51 0.40 0.67 0.08 0.61 0.20 0.28 0.17 0.80 0.58 0.16 0.13 0.80 0.96 0.13 0.37 -0.06 -0.06 0.91 0.96 0.93 0.41 0.14 0.78 0.53 0.72 0.98 0.73 0.85 0.78 0.14 0.02 0.13 0.66 0.11 0.28 0.28 0.01

Bias (UM) 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.38 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.26 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.56 0.08 0.11 0.25 0.01 0.08 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.15 0.02 0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.70 0.72

MSE Decomposition Proportions Reg Dist Var Covar (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) 0.00 0.98 0.07 0.91 0.00 1.00 0.42 0.58 0.01 0.98 0.19 0.80 0.01 0.94 0.36 0.59 0.00 0.99 0.70 0.29 0.05 0.94 0.71 0.29 0.01 0.95 0.65 0.31 0.03 0.59 0.27 0.35 0.12 0.82 0.58 0.35 0.00 0.91 0.62 0.30 0.00 0.92 0.55 0.37 0.06 0.68 0.51 0.23 0.02 0.82 0.56 0.28 0.00 0.95 0.25 0.70 0.69 0.31 0.10 0.90 0.02 0.95 0.12 0.85 0.00 0.99 0.69 0.30 0.02 0.97 0.76 0.22 0.01 0.97 0.82 0.16 0.07 0.37 0.22 0.22 0.06 0.86 0.51 0.40 0.00 0.89 0.66 0.23 0.05 0.70 0.25 0.50 0.00 0.99 0.16 0.83 0.26 0.67 0.38 0.54 0.25 0.71 0.06 0.90 0.01 0.93 0.30 0.65 0.05 0.92 0.61 0.37 0.08 0.89 0.51 0.46 0.01 0.98 0.11 0.88 0.00 0.85 0.01 0.83 0.05 0.92 0.17 0.80 0.07 0.75 0.08 0.74 0.00 0.99 0.80 0.19 0.06 0.94 0.34 0.65 0.02 0.98 0.16 0.84 0.87 0.13 0.62 0.38 0.62 0.05 0.58 0.08 0.86 0.13 0.62 0.37 0.16 0.73 0.42 0.47 0.03 0.85 0.25 0.63 0.04 0.94 0.41 0.58 0.01 0.96 0.70 0.27 0.00 0.98 0.87 0.12 0.09 0.91 0.02 0.98 0.00 0.98 0.73 0.25 0.01 0.91 0.66 0.26 0.00 0.30 0.18 0.13 0.02 0.26 0.13 0.14

Inequality Coef U1 U 0.1136 0.0574 0.1020 0.0512 0.1588 0.0807 0.1448 0.0739 0.2644 0.1328 0.2123 0.1071 0.2779 0.1457 0.6208 0.2736 0.7110 0.4010 0.3243 0.1747 0.4292 0.2399 0.6262 0.2942 0.2743 0.1478 0.2077 0.1074 0.0550 0.0275 0.2262 0.1166 0.0591 0.0295 0.5345 0.2807 0.6533 0.3944 0.3518 0.1590 0.7306 0.3994 0.2834 0.1377 0.3418 0.1602 0.5740 0.3250 0.3159 0.1762 1.0775 0.5644 0.9298 0.5587 0.7819 0.5037 0.7655 0.4819 0.3896 0.2086 0.3029 0.1552 0.3641 0.1980 0.1199 0.0616 0.5232 0.2913 0.2489 0.1265 0.4494 0.2342 1.8225 0.5368 0.9372 0.3419 1.7570 0.5301 0.2230 0.1183 0.2362 0.1252 0.5052 0.2769 0.8766 0.6270 0.9484 0.7764 0.6352 0.3264 0.3859 0.2067 0.7977 0.5644 0.3136 0.1819 0.4956 0.3195

Lanjutan Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT

N 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Relative Change Corr Bias MSE (R) (UM) 0.0137 0.77 0.04 0.0107 0.79 0.00 0.0268 0.78 0.03 0.0207 0.55 0.04 0.1079 0.75 0.00 0.0717 0.70 0.00 0.1109 0.71 0.03 0.7429 0.62 0.39 8130.6 0.57 0.06 0.1909 0.64 0.02 1058.5 0.93 0.02 1.7226 0.51 0.27 0.0882 0.85 0.19

MSE Reg (UR) 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.06 0.20 0.28 0.19 0.00

Decomposition Proportions Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U 0.95 0.17 0.79 0.6372 0.3705 1.00 0.15 0.85 0.6103 0.3450 0.95 0.23 0.74 0.6243 0.3708 0.91 0.08 0.87 0.8715 0.4976 0.97 0.31 0.69 0.6586 0.3995 1.00 0.21 0.79 0.7107 0.4235 0.95 0.28 0.69 0.7162 0.4454 0.54 0.01 0.60 1.0361 0.4610 0.88 0.06 0.87 0.7671 0.3915 0.78 0.00 0.98 0.8407 0.4200 0.70 0.47 0.50 0.4224 0.2479 0.54 0.00 0.73 1.1262 0.4871 0.81 0.09 0.72 0.5700 0.3172

310 LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

0.0526 0.00306 0.0638 0.00341 5608.3 1.6210 0.1946 1525.6 0.1168 0.2076 1136.8 62.1019 4822.3 3584.9 4.5673 5.4005 6.915E10 1.9172E9 1.979E10 0.0132 0.6972 0.0964 3.1093 1.095E13 2.62E11 2.733E12 0.0706 0.0846 0.3179 17.1963 64.9588 6.059E11 0.2667 47.5665 0.1200 0.3179

0.72 0.51 0.68 0.79 0.84 0.43 0.85 0.53 0.80 0.85 0.87 0.97 0.23 0.41 0.38 0.39 0.81 0.96 0.90 0.69 0.52 0.89 1.00 0.72 0.98 0.72 0.86 0.83 0.72 0.44 0.08 0.76 0.56 0.57 0.79 0.75

0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.49 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.03 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.19 0.02 0.16 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.30 0.01 0.08 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.66 0.69

0.01 0.67 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.32 0.26 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.16 0.15 0.00 0.06 0.05 0.86 0.64 0.85 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.04 0.10 0.11 0.05 0.04

0.96 0.33 0.91 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.50 0.89 0.90 0.81 0.65 0.66 0.80 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.81 0.82 0.69 0.98 0.94 0.93 0.14 0.05 0.15 0.91 0.90 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.90 0.77 0.30 0.27

0.10 0.24 0.02 0.24 0.02 0.27 0.01 0.07 0.28 0.17 0.61 0.39 0.08 0.33 0.46 0.46 0.24 0.02 0.37 0.00 0.39 0.22 0.04 0.59 0.60 0.58 0.15 0.01 0.09 0.53 0.43 0.03 0.04 0.63 0.16 0.15

0.87 0.76 0.96 0.75 0.97 0.72 0.51 0.88 0.67 0.66 0.36 0.54 0.89 0.64 0.51 0.50 0.75 0.80 0.61 0.84 0.60 0.78 0.94 0.41 0.09 0.41 0.77 0.93 0.90 0.43 0.57 0.97 0.96 0.25 0.18 0.15

0.6966 1.4961 0.7570 0.6227 0.5047 0.8810 0.7250 0.7816 0.6110 0.5765 0.5923 0.3166 1.0220 0.9016 0.8956 0.8909 0.5748 0.2911 0.4738 0.8641 0.8378 0.4442 0.0678 1.7333 0.9190 1.6823 0.5292 0.5725 0.6739 0.8705 0.9882 0.5929 0.8430 0.8370 1.1258 1.2601

0.3944 0.5468 0.4033 0.3670 0.2571 0.5748 0.3358 0.4028 0.3505 0.3110 0.3876 0.1766 0.5589 0.5600 0.6525 0.6511 0.3353 0.1494 0.2783 0.4191 0.5697 0.2462 0.0337 0.5245 0.3364 0.5203 0.2982 0.2980 0.3779 0.6472 0.7066 0.3116 0.4587 0.6537 0.5783 0.6301

Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Luas Descriptive Statistics Actual Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT

N Obs 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

N 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Mean 3.2710 22310.1 75460.6 1597.9 435.8 437.4 6391856 75.9565 30.0725 422.0 211.7 106.0 633.7 2.0793 26571.9 55690.2 247.3 252.4 6376093 72.4194 23.3545 122.3 68.9971 3.9130 11.6957 48.6522 86.7826 17317485 20810898 23479.2 75392.3 98871.5 26604608 9347228 1.0237E8

Std Dev 1.6144 2930.5 43796.4 195.0 129.7 109.1 2301556 49.5982 54.3311 80.1414 89.1137 79.9869 103.9 1.0119 1095.8 27928.8 23.8829 110.1 3649852 43.4668 42.0382 40.7482 32.4678 19.7572 55.1740 89.3789 171.5 12152285 15252880 159237 365755 506275 3814901 3702017 69673180

Predicted Mean 3.2260 22140.3 73740.5 1603.5 433.6 434.2 6218267 101.6 68.4384 397.6 213.1 170.1 610.7 2.0416 26221.7 53669.6 249.6 259.3 6090348 71.0356 32.7655 125.9 72.1039 3.2961 11.3924 61.3145 63.0606 16449980 19599807 13657.6 70553.0 84210.6 26223722 9137099 98299078

Std Dev 1.6465 1654.5 43920.8 107.6 25.5570 17.5997 378030 130.4 90.1048 94.2104 33.8290 200.1 120.6 0.9404 976.3 25308.1 5.0960 30.6630 785725 41.3361 36.2204 6.4540 12.4979 15.5474 33.3010 48.3033 56.5583 3597413 5066172 149878 251421 334548 3499760 887103 60446537

311 PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

36205551 1582140 2383805 3965945 1.4794E8 1.5201E8 6998772 10318713 812326 2681087 10362804 972500 1857122 1623867

22755540 3598754 5963150 8309549 91962471 92200234 4611735 10156923 1163288 3836424 4432889 2103125 439051 344901

34947040 2205605 2583738 4789342 1.3325E8 1.3812E8 6607345 9842634 753038 2396790 8876129 1052035 1348688 910864

19897463 7868825 6575154 12805291 76721120 76367941 1352617 2847224 291667 1725164 2095672 305374 106692 129404

Lampiran 6. Lanjutan Statistics of fit Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

N

Mean Error

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

-0.0450 -169.8 -1720.1 5.5822 -2.1996 -3.1641 -173589 25.6672 38.3659 -24.4051 1.4617 64.0332 -22.9434 -0.0377 -350.2 -2020.6 2.3071 6.8370 -285745 -1.3838 9.4109 3.5580 3.1067 -0.6170 -0.3032 12.6623 -23.7220 -867505 -1211091 -9821.6 -4839.3 -14660.9 -380886 -210129 -4073895 -1258511 623465 199933 823397 -1.47E7 -1.389E7 -391426 -476079 -59288.5 -284297 -1486676 79535.0 -508433 -713003

Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs Error Error % Error

RMS Error

RMS % Error R-Square

-1.2930 0.2771 8.7996 0.3758 11.7485 0.4512 1795.7 7.9212 2759.6 11.3325 -0.6205 10086.1 13.6209 14457.3 17.9256 1.7232 169.6 10.8989 206.9 13.6329 8.3053 98.8207 25.3952 127.3 34.2895 6.3927 87.8527 22.8334 106.1 31.5203 10.5100 1878412 32.9987 2247373 41.3904 -73.0136 85.1331 239.2 103.0 448.7 3861.8 73.4764 5251.9 95.4823 8526.5 -3.1171 89.7541 21.0670 108.4 26.0815 21.4657 72.3965 45.1730 83.9130 64.0719 -36.5495 147.3 306.3 177.4 592.7 -2.2176 103.2 16.2261 125.1 19.4164 3.5187 0.3776 18.6631 0.5397 25.8717 -1.1588 1096.4 4.1317 1451.1 5.4714 2.6048 10591.6 19.9230 15096.2 27.4245 1.8947 20.0370 8.3792 24.0581 10.5109 3388.5 79.3485 3411.1 111.4 9446.2 26.0551 2893552 53.7038 3632033 66.7401 -5.1821 20.4240 52.9061 25.7343 108.2 1822.6 33.0680 2268.8 44.3972 3637.5 12.4882 29.1580 25.5833 40.3279 34.9148 24.3201 25.6993 42.2444 35.6424 61.1955 45.6263 7.9846 691.1 11.8814 934.8 345.5 10.4452 465.9 33.8967 689.3 3425.9 57.2420 3564.5 72.2864 5190.6 2969.3 86.1438 3150.9 138.8 4088.3 37.4432 7408949 62.3573 10420722 90.7677 41.9513 9446759 68.5543 12599032 97.2201 -519427 56758.4 5213100 82464.3 7625861 1869570 61196.2 3493492 176369 5004243 799944 90166.0 2975311 216675 4119567 -0.5657 2600689 9.7940 3154389 11.9010 10.8732 2788865 31.2624 3538358 39.0388 3.7718 20062425 20.8081 31091151 30.4315 11.3234 7990162 33.6681 10352040 57.3137 -1.223E8 3219459 1.3581E8 4997306 1.8251E8 -1.946E7 967312 19929014 2335969 28662511 -6.578E7 3560397 69353075 6209911 95503544 -5.4467 24319441 15.5625 37270030 19.4316 -4.1142 24745465 15.8271 37182755 21.0637 17.8445 2445339 40.2535 4141002 59.0022 156.6 6258542 184.2 9312559 332.0 178.5 791157 216.0 1244418 345.0 16116612 1970593 20560243 2970312 49317239 -0.0380 3390360 33.2835 4839361 45.6106 286.8 1063011 302.8 2026246 423.1 -23.3829 556279 27.5366 662108 30.2449 -41.4077 716594 41.8362 788360 43.9291

0.9446 0.0936 0.8886 -.1509 0.0153 0.0335 0.0253 -.4115 -.1574 -.8710 0.0936 -.0309 -.4817 0.7092 -.7926 0.7013 -.0373 -.0452 -.0123 0.6417 -.1402 -.0012 -.2319 0.6303 0.6142 0.3314 0.3310 0.2483 0.3025 0.7259 0.7623 0.8128 0.3011 0.0662 0.7964 0.7884 -.9711 0.8431 0.4291 0.8321 0.8337 0.1758 0.1407 -.1698 0.3872 -.2183 0.0511 -.3251 -.3414

312 Lampiran 6.

Lanjutan Theil Forecast Error Statistics


N 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Lampiran 6.

Variable N LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

MSE 0.1413 7615218 2.0901E8 42821.4 16193.4 11249.7 5.051E12 10615.6 9116.9 11755.6 7041.4 31479.4 15649.8 0.2913 2105750 2.2789E8 578.8 12400.4 1.319E13 662.3 1971.1 1626.3 1270.4 141.2 1149.0 5225.3 19254.7 1.086E14 1.587E14 6.8004E9 3.111E10 4.695E10 9.95E12 1.252E13 9.667E14 1.072E14 2.497E13 5.457E12 3.856E13 1.389E15 1.383E15 1.715E13 8.672E13 1.549E12 8.823E12 2.342E13 4.106E12 4.384E11 6.215E11

Corr (R) 0.97 0.37 0.95 0.14 0.14 0.19 0.18 0.72 0.33 0.26 0.31 0.58 0.39 0.85 0.06 0.84 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.81 0.38 0.10 -0.10 0.79 0.81 0.60 0.70 0.58 0.63 0.86 0.90 0.95 0.63 0.26 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.93 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.46 0.40 -0.21 0.66 0.13 0.25 0.22 0.22

Bias (UM) 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.03 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.00 0.59 0.82

MSE Decomposition Proportions Reg Dist Var Covar (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) 0.04 0.95 0.01 0.98 0.04 0.95 0.21 0.79 0.03 0.96 0.00 0.99 0.15 0.85 0.17 0.82 0.00 1.00 0.65 0.35 0.00 1.00 0.73 0.27 0.00 0.99 0.72 0.28 0.83 0.11 0.60 0.34 0.56 0.28 0.14 0.70 0.45 0.50 0.02 0.93 0.00 0.99 0.42 0.58 0.74 0.13 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.57 0.02 0.95 0.02 0.97 0.02 0.98 0.39 0.56 0.01 0.94 0.01 0.97 0.03 0.95 0.03 0.96 0.60 0.39 0.04 0.95 0.50 0.50 0.01 0.98 0.61 0.39 0.05 0.94 0.01 0.99 0.20 0.75 0.02 0.94 0.00 0.99 0.71 0.28 0.19 0.80 0.31 0.69 0.00 1.00 0.12 0.87 0.11 0.89 0.41 0.59 0.00 0.96 0.32 0.65 0.20 0.77 0.67 0.30 0.10 0.89 0.66 0.33 0.13 0.86 0.64 0.35 0.03 0.96 0.01 0.97 0.19 0.81 0.41 0.59 0.43 0.56 0.61 0.38 0.12 0.87 0.01 0.98 0.00 1.00 0.62 0.38 0.00 0.98 0.09 0.90 0.00 0.98 0.07 0.91 0.87 0.12 0.71 0.27 0.18 0.81 0.07 0.93 0.69 0.29 0.51 0.47 0.06 0.79 0.16 0.68 0.06 0.80 0.18 0.68 0.03 0.96 0.61 0.39 0.02 0.98 0.60 0.39 0.18 0.82 0.48 0.52 0.07 0.92 0.49 0.50 0.10 0.81 0.23 0.68 0.01 0.99 0.77 0.23 0.00 0.41 0.25 0.16 0.00 0.18 0.07 0.11

Inequality Coef U1 U 0.1033 0.0518 0.1227 0.0617 0.1662 0.0838 0.1286 0.0643 0.2801 0.1432 0.2355 0.1198 0.3312 0.1727 1.1395 0.4047 1.5505 0.5489 0.2525 0.1294 0.3660 0.1886 1.3412 0.4512 0.1949 0.0990 0.2339 0.1186 0.0546 0.0275 0.2428 0.1244 0.0969 0.0483 0.4050 0.2078 0.4957 0.2697 0.3056 0.1549 0.9310 0.4613 0.3131 0.1583 0.4683 0.2388 0.5962 0.3332 0.6074 0.3739 0.7164 0.4047 0.7282 0.5049 0.4943 0.2749 0.4902 0.2743 0.5179 0.2676 0.4773 0.2808 0.4245 0.2544 0.1174 0.0592 0.3525 0.1841 0.2519 0.1304 0.2428 0.1251 1.2829 0.4170 0.3672 0.1749 0.6805 0.2740 0.2146 0.1140 0.2098 0.1111 0.4957 0.2743 0.6466 0.3780 0.8835 0.5619 0.6393 0.3914 0.4301 0.2376 0.8824 0.5976 0.3472 0.2031 0.4751 0.3057

Lanjutan Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U 0.0121 0.0179 0.0415 0.0148 0.0958 0.0695 0.2189 15.7626 7108.7 0.0761 0.2272 30.2806 0.0409

0.83 0.64 0.80 0.69 0.70 0.74 0.72 0.37 0.34 0.51 0.72 0.29 0.59

0.05 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.03

0.06 0.00 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.01 0.92 0.72 0.24 0.06 0.97 0.19

0.89 0.99 0.87 0.97 0.97 0.94 0.98 0.05 0.18 0.71 0.92 0.03 0.78

0.28 0.23 0.37 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.26 0.67 0.30 0.00 0.02 0.73 0.00

0.66 0.77 0.58 0.91 0.93 0.98 0.74 0.30 0.61 0.95 0.97 0.27 0.97

0.5758 0.7686 0.6318 0.7359 0.7094 0.6873 0.6891 4.2203 2.0311 1.0081 0.6951 5.3225 0.9050

0.3443 0.4714 0.3959 0.4095 0.3890 0.3608 0.4179 0.7750 0.6210 0.5054 0.3582 0.8168 0.4565

313 LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

0.0691 0.00292 0.0835 0.00944 268.6 0.8414 0.5843 1347.6 0.1786 0.3537 143.5 1173.6 3346.1 16313.7 1.4351 1.4588 6.8472E9 3.177E10 1.192E10 0.0147 0.2186 0.1384 0.2912 1.989E13 5.279E12 8.025E12 0.0586 0.0703 0.9720 6.5590 10.9354 3.604E12 0.3328 36.4733 0.1367 0.2796

0.71 0.46 0.70 0.73 0.99 0.69 0.73 0.39 0.63 0.54 0.80 0.81 0.69 0.71 0.89 0.93 0.86 0.90 0.95 0.81 0.73 0.64 0.87 0.93 0.93 0.91 0.76 0.71 0.75 0.91 0.46 0.86 0.68 0.26 0.69 0.79

0.01 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.01 0.60 0.76

0.01 0.34 0.02 0.01 0.15 0.02 0.41 0.37 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.19 0.23 0.31 0.02 0.19 0.44 0.14 0.01 0.01 0.41 0.91 0.15 0.71 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.22 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.05

0.99 0.61 0.97 0.99 0.84 0.98 0.54 0.59 1.00 0.74 1.00 0.89 0.96 0.79 0.74 0.65 0.96 0.81 0.55 0.86 0.98 0.97 0.58 0.09 0.85 0.28 0.86 0.88 0.93 0.94 0.98 0.75 0.92 0.91 0.39 0.19

0.11 0.01 0.08 0.22 0.20 0.30 0.12 0.01 0.25 0.00 0.12 0.41 0.20 0.64 0.47 0.51 0.01 0.41 0.62 0.00 0.25 0.12 0.20 0.80 0.04 0.53 0.09 0.04 0.32 0.19 0.21 0.49 0.17 0.22 0.12 0.14

0.88 0.95 0.90 0.78 0.78 0.69 0.82 0.95 0.75 0.97 0.87 0.59 0.75 0.33 0.50 0.45 0.97 0.59 0.37 0.99 0.74 0.86 0.79 0.19 0.95 0.46 0.76 0.88 0.65 0.80 0.79 0.48 0.75 0.77 0.28 0.10

0.6924 1.1353 0.7023 0.6834 0.1539 0.6991 0.9037 1.1047 0.7602 0.9446 0.5996 0.6093 0.6779 0.7356 0.4956 0.4302 0.5140 0.4771 0.4232 0.6364 0.6720 0.7503 0.6232 1.2000 0.3792 0.7388 0.6792 0.7222 0.6538 0.3926 0.8392 0.5326 0.7448 0.9422 1.1376 1.4082

0.3930 0.5307 0.3933 0.4048 0.0798 0.4316 0.3947 0.5017 0.4618 0.4595 0.3358 0.3759 0.3727 0.5142 0.3000 0.2556 0.2659 0.2808 0.2537 0.3119 0.4042 0.4359 0.2730 0.3917 0.1822 0.2917 0.3860 0.3959 0.4047 0.2143 0.5125 0.3280 0.4473 0.5608 0.5917 0.6449

Lampiran 7. Root Mean Squares Percent Error dan Koefisien U-Theil Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Berdasarkan Strata Luas Lahan di Kecamatan Pangalengan Kabupaten Bandung Tahun 2006 Variabel

LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB

Lahan Sempit RMSPE Koefisien (%) U -Theil 17 0.055 12 0.059 23 0.087 13 0.064 24 0.107 22 0.103 31 0.139 36 0.227 10910 0.496 123 0.226 9514 0.356 58 0.295 172 0.236 37 0.121 4 0.022 42 0.137 10 0.047 5886 0.159 57 0.235 23 0.136

Lahan Sedang RMSPE Koefisien (%) U -Theil 13 0.057 11 0.051 16 0.081 12 0.074 32 0.133 24 0.107 28 0.146 103 0.274 9895 0.401 52 0.175 4776 0.240 154 0.294 37 0.148 23 0.107 6 0.028 25 0.117 6 0.030 13982 0.281 67 0.394 57 0.159

Lahan RMSPE (%) 12 11 18 14 34 32 41 449 8527 26 64 593 19 26 5 27 11 9446 67 108

Luas Koefisien U -Theil 0.052 0.062 0.084 0.064 0.143 0.120 0.173 0.405 0.549 0.129 0.189 0.451 0.099 0.119 0.028 0.124 0.048 0.208 0.270 0.155

Total RMSPE (%) 15 11 20 13 30 26 34 261 9948 87 6707 348 116 31 5 34 9 9531 63 69

Koefisien U -Theil 0.052 0.058 0.084 0.067 0.127 0.109 0.154 0.248 0.479 0.163 0.269 0.302 0.155 0.118 0.025 0.124 0.044 0.207 0.306 0.143

314 TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG

4736 32 35 994 695 5401 3345 96 90 9381198 4543738 4270086 15 30 30 56 137350000 45710471 77589008 21 45 56

0.408 0.139 0.230 0.217 0.249 0.443 0.382 0.382 0.351 0.199 0.238 0.169 0.069 0.153 0.133 0.148 0.122 0.090 0.092 0.105 0.100 0.223

4289 39 68 671 525 5762 3608 82 83 5435434 4271743 3670502 12 46 33 855 144410000 40552301 86179380 21 22 51

0.399 0.138 0.160 0.325 0.176 0.564 0.559 0.504 0.482 0.209 0.155 0.198 0.062 0.291 0.127 0.234 0.537 0.342 0.530 0.118 0.125 0.277

3638 35 61 935 689 5191 4088 91 97 7625861 5004243 4119567 12 39 30 57 182510000 28662511 95503544 19 21 59

0.461 0.158 0.239 0.333 0.374 0.405 0.505 0.275 0.274 0.268 0.281 0.254 0.059 0.184 0.130 0.125 0.417 0.175 0.274 0.114 0.111 0.274

4299 35 54 907 656 5423 3663 91 91 8021096 4636355 4084677 13 37 31 421 154990000 39480434 85798655 20 34 56

0.411 0.144 0.219 0.252 0.280 0.447 0.457 0.387 0.364 0.203 0.245 0.183 0.063 0.211 0.130 0.140 0.147 0.108 0.114 0.114 0.111 0.260

Lampiran 7. Lanjutan Variabel

PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

Lahan Sempit RMSPE Koefisien (%) U -Theil 315 0.509 493 0.449 35005272 0.305 82 0.168 358 0.553

30 42

0.189 0.287

Lahan Sedang RMSPE Koefisien (%) U -Theil 153 0.627 394 0.776 29634361 0.326 52 0.207 284 0.564

28 45

0.182 0.320

Lahan RMSPE (%) 332 345 49317239 46 423

30 44

Luas Koefisien U -Theil 0.378 0.562 0.391 0.238 0.598

0.203 0.306

Total RMSPE (%) 291 426 39155906 65 365

29 43

Koefisien U -Theil 0.512 0.678 0.363 0.217 0.576

0.192 0.300

315

Lampiran 8. Bias proportions (UM), Variance Proportions (US) dan Covariance Proportions (UC) Model Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Menurut Strata Luas Lahan Tahun 2006 Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF

Lahan Sempit UM US UC 0.34 0.24 0.42 0.03 0.34 0.62 0.25 0.10 0.65 0.00 0.28 0.72 0.01 0.76 0.24 0.00 0.69 0.31 0.04 0.50 0.45 0.24 0.52 0.25 0.14 0.65 0.22 0.26 0.46 0.28 0.08 0.71 0.21 0.26 0.55 0.19 0.23 0.54 0.23 0.26 0.01 0.73 0.08 0.02 0.89 0.24 0.00 0.75 0.01 0.47 0.52 0.02 0.61 0.36 0.08 0.47 0.45 0.13 0.21 0.66 0.04 0.61 0.35 0.07 0.54 0.39 0.05 0.68 0.27 0.00 0.06 0.94 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.00 0.22 0.77 0.01 0.00 0.98 0.03 0.48 0.49 0.03 0.39 0.58 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.01 0.99

Lahan Sedang UM US UC 0.02 0.07 0.91 0.00 0.42 0.58 0.01 0.19 0.80 0.05 0.36 0.59 0.01 0.70 0.29 0.00 0.71 0.29 0.04 0.65 0.31 0.38 0.27 0.35 0.06 0.58 0.35 0.08 0.62 0.30 0.08 0.55 0.37 0.26 0.51 0.23 0.16 0.56 0.28 0.05 0.25 0.70 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.04 0.12 0.85 0.01 0.69 0.30 0.01 0.76 0.22 0.03 0.82 0.16 0.56 0.22 0.22 0.08 0.51 0.40 0.11 0.66 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.01 0.16 0.83 0.08 0.38 0.54 0.04 0.06 0.90 0.06 0.30 0.65 0.03 0.61 0.37 0.03 0.51 0.46 0.01 0.11 0.88 0.15 0.01 0.83 0.02 0.17 0.80

Lahan Luas UM US 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.21 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.65 0.00 0.73 0.01 0.72 0.06 0.60 0.16 0.14 0.05 0.02 0.00 0.42 0.13 0.45 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.60 0.00 0.50 0.01 0.61 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.71 0.01 0.31 0.00 0.12 0.00 0.41 0.03 0.32 0.03 0.67 0.01 0.66 0.01 0.64 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.61

UC 0.98 0.79 0.99 0.82 0.35 0.27 0.28 0.34 0.70 0.93 0.58 0.42 0.95 0.98 0.94 0.95 0.39 0.50 0.39 0.99 0.94 0.28 0.69 0.87 0.59 0.65 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.97 0.59 0.38

Total Rumahtangga UM US UC 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.25 0.75 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.00 0.25 0.74 0.00 0.65 0.35 0.00 0.68 0.32 0.00 0.61 0.39 0.00 0.21 0.79 0.02 0.53 0.46 0.00 0.20 0.80 0.01 0.60 0.40 0.01 0.35 0.63 0.01 0.28 0.71 0.00 0.03 0.97 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 0.52 0.48 0.00 0.61 0.39 0.00 0.69 0.31 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.00 0.40 0.60 0.00 0.65 0.35 0.00 0.48 0.52 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.00 0.22 0.78 0.00 0.28 0.72 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.00 0.49 0.51 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.00 0.05 0.95

316 TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG

0.12 0.04 0.10 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.02

0.10 0.48 0.04 0.00 0.10 0.07 0.16 0.09 0.21 0.24

0.78 0.49 0.86 0.84 0.90 0.93 0.84 0.88 0.78 0.74

0.18 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.01 0.11 0.12 0.02

0.08 0.80 0.34 0.16 0.62 0.58 0.62 0.42 0.25 0.41

0.74 0.19 0.65 0.84 0.38 0.08 0.37 0.47 0.63 0.58

0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.16 0.14 0.01

0.01 0.62 0.09 0.07 0.71 0.07 0.51 0.16 0.18 0.61

0.98 0.38 0.90 0.91 0.27 0.93 0.47 0.68 0.68 0.39

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.07 0.00

0.07 0.66 0.09 0.08 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.23 0.22 0.44

0.93 0.34 0.91 0.92 0.97 0.99 0.96 0.70 0.71 0.56

Lampiran 8. Lanjutan Variable PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

Lahan Sempit UM US UC 0.02 0.54 0.44 0.26 0.03 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.33 0.11 0.56 0.01 0.59 0.40

Lahan Sedang UM US UC 0.02 0.70 0.27 0.01 0.87 0.12 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.02 0.73 0.25 0.08 0.66 0.26

Lahan Luas UM US 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.48 0.01 0.49 0.09 0.23 0.00 0.77

UC 0.39 0.52 0.50 0.68 0.23

Total Rumahtangga UM US UC 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.00 0.72 0.28 0.00 0.23 0.76 0.00 0.35 0.65 0.00 0.68 0.32

0.76 0.84

0.66 0.69

0.59 0.82

0.16 0.11

0.70 0.80

0.11 0.08

0.13 0.08

0.16 0.15

0.18 0.15

0.25 0.07

0.18 0.09

0.12 0.11

317

Lampiran 9. Contoh Hasil Simulasi Peningkatan Risiko Produksi Kentang Sebesar Lima Persen Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sempit


N Obs 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

N 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62

Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev 0.4390 0.1720 0.4567 0.1457 19420.1 2137.3 19458.9 789.9 8495.8 3443.3 8977.3 2780.8 1526.8 186.5 1515.9 82.6015 411.3 92.4668 403.4 14.7454 457.8 97.1349 451.4 17.7526 5274131 1504425 5543989 414522 405.6 166.4 308.1 41.2044 284.7 281.9 175.2 47.0340 178.2 91.8396 226.1 25.8662 135.3 126.9 169.9 19.9416 690.3 338.7 484.9 57.8670 313.5 164.8 395.9 33.8342 0.3829 0.1330 0.4270 0.1229 25241.4 975.7 25508.4 1205.0 9751.3 3601.3 11024.3 3513.1 254.3 26.2064 251.1 11.9466 313.0 101.6 297.9 22.8188 5249758 2708408 6060012 836054 148.8 38.4083 133.6 20.1172 92.4433 84.3681 75.7163 18.9080 145.8 37.8622 135.3 9.1649 107.9 50.4946 96.0 9.3714 35.2903 63.3135 38.3136 55.6918 27.3871 64.7893 29.0604 59.3742 70.4194 158.8 62.9327 98.1912 34.5484 94.5189 44.0564 90.8745 11131222 11673492 12950866 3866666 12930642 12623948 14932897 5200046 369944 720218 393854 656898 193783 493825 208943 446943 563727 925614 613349 889505 20293777 3098766 21194396 2084449 8941579 2940803 9481471 1001026 12181729 5130213 12768147 4164145 7358978 3531135 8200903 3455530 5927823 29493775 5986500 27299295 2268388 13758750 2182046 13108645 8196211 42407594 8140505 39371598 22618442 8433983 20743959 6736026 31378380 46326867 29087217 41288822 4902074 2442178 5201673 1271824 6229148 10742758 7735858 3028601 386290 368143 672689 283798 1413129 1583809 1325240 1534745 4868705 1804939 5895594 1167759 685242 1237729 776118 281986 1912424 301031 1352912 76852.6 1918356 347372 1107338 96772.8

Lampiran 10. Contoh Hasil Simulasi Peningkatan Risiko Produksi Kentang Sebesar Lima Persen Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sedang

318


N Obs 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

N 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34

Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev 1.1454 0.2538 1.0979 0.2170 20497.8 2282.5 20227.7 903.3 23526.5 6308.7 22258.2 4394.4 1612.3 241.4 1552.0 96.1846 403.7 112.9 413.9 18.5998 449.2 107.5 451.8 23.8997 6151591 1758815 5734787 315269 187.5 104.6 258.2 34.0494 105.2 169.0 138.0 60.5553 304.1 104.5 272.0 21.2440 214.6 105.7 185.3 29.6683 292.7 223.7 401.0 57.2536 518.6 148.0 457.5 36.4975 0.8804 0.2530 0.8240 0.1566 26150.0 813.0 26050.0 1286.9 23039.9 6758.4 21608.3 4817.5 251.4 15.3881 252.1 3.3440 261.1 173.3 280.3 25.4229 7335103 6408449 6323211 609805 90.2115 35.2286 114.7166 19.0930 43.6185 65.6624 59.3148 24.2000 120.9 34.4763 132.9 5.1372 78.4702 23.9858 92.0778 9.6920 19.7353 59.1425 17.6069 44.7408 5.2059 24.5243 3.0438 19.6960 28.0882 64.5475 43.6119 46.8317 16.8235 64.4344 31.6513 30.7642 16582753 19143592 13372371 3643934 18886106 20095595 15305523 4894028 201648 647087 181437 561371 25412.7 148175 8021.7 143145 227061 742135 190838.3 625098 22698608 2640566 21460643 1791366 10350895 6483278 9652367 703471 32483715 13704966 31681568 8078848 13720201 8606834 13471915 5610816 672354 1800335 658506 4562854 94118.6 548795 207461 947919 766472 1847156 444968 4615312 50800024 19649024 44730903 11275558 51793557 19681860 45273444 12635207 5998753 3473068 5543347 1213301 10584000 18137998 7824593 2712346 1156941 3517702 772540 246676 1146412 1572449 1173208 1404720 6918803 2915841 6426321 404606 1260162 1666627 794790 309166 1829216 340614 1343444 90075.5 1756294 463797 977912 129230

Lampiran 11. Contoh Hasil Simulasi Peningkatan Risiko Produksi Kentang Sebesar Lima Persen Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Luas

Variable LHGKT PRDKT PKT PBNHKT PPKNKT PPKPKT PESKT TKPDKT TKWDKT TKPLKT TKWLKT TKDKT TKLKT LHGKB PRDKB PKB PBNHKB PNPKB

N Obs 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

N 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev 3.2710 1.6144 3.1421 1.6466 22310.1 2930.5 21932.2 1661.8 75460.6 43796.4 71454.5 42487.6 1597.9 195.0 1597.4 103.4 435.8 129.7 433.2 25.5580 437.4 109.1 433.6 17.5780 6391856 2301556 6163546 393390 75.9565 49.5982 97.3836 130.3 30.0725 54.3311 67.4187 88.5073 422.0 80.1414 394.6 94.2160 211.7 89.1137 212.2 33.7915 106.0 79.9869 166.7 197.9 633.7 103.9 607.3 120.1 2.0793 1.0119 2.0053 0.9404 26571.9 1095.8 26179.8 990.8 55690.2 27928.8 52682.1 25218.5 247.3 23.8829 249.3 6.1098 252.4 110.1 258.8 30.3390

319 PESKB TKPDKB TKWDKB TKPLKB TKWLKB TKPOF TKWOF TKPNF TKWNF KONS PENG PPOF PWOF TPOF TBUKT TBUKB PUTKT PUTKB PPNF PWNF TPNF TPUT TPRT PPANG PNPG PKS PPEND TAB INVES NPPKT NPPKB

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

6376093 72.4194 23.3545 122.3 68.9971 3.9130 11.6957 48.6522 86.7826 17317485 20810898 23479.2 75392.3 98871.5 26604608 9347228 1.0237E8 36205551 1582140 2383805 3965945 1.4794E8 1.5201E8 6998772 10318713 812326 2681087 10362804 972500 1857122 1623867

3649852 43.4668 42.0382 40.7482 32.4678 19.7572 55.1740 89.3789 171.5 12152285 15252880 159237 365755 506275 3814901 3702017 69673180 22755540 3598754 5963150 8309549 91962471 92200234 4611735 10156923 1163288 3836424 4432889 2103125 439051 344901

6086694 70.4957 32.3559 125.9 71.8660 3.4517 11.4778 61.6640 63.2876 16410500 19531208 14142.4 71399.6 86206.4 26124072 9136185 94337625 34297025 2260745 2632054 4854477 1.28E+08 1.32E+08 6578933 9821964 751683 2380252 8800682 1046038 1345670 969870

809365 41.4031 35.5680 6.6557 12.6398 16.0008 33.4353 48.8114 56.6275 3635918 5091008 153179 252268 336840 3335360 908988 58098333 19880973 7865870 6575205 12801750 74454916 74164181 1352457 2880591 305533 1726047 2035821 305967 106720 129185

Lampiran 12. Rekapitulasi Pengaruh Peningkatan Risiko Produksi, Risiko Harga Kubis dan Upah Usahatani Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sempit di Kecamatan Pangalengan Kabupaten Bandung Variabel Luas lahan kentang (LHGKT) Produktivitas kentang (PRDKT) Produksi kentang (PKT) Benih kentang (PBNHKT) Pupuk nitrogen (PPKNKT) Pupuk phosphor (PPKPKT) Obat-obatan kentang (PESKT) TK dalam kel. pria kentang(TKPDKT) TK dalam kel. wanita (TKWDKT) TK luar kel.pria (TKPLKT) TK luar kel. wanita (TKWLKT) Total TK dalam keluarga (TKDKT) Total TK luar keluarga (TKLKT) Luas lahan kubis (LHGKB) Produktivitas kubis (PRDKB) Produksi kubis (PKB) Benih kubis (PBNHKB) Pupuk NPK (PNPKB) Obat-obatan kubis (PESKB)

Risiko Produksi (%) -2.78 -1.97 -3.71 -0.56 -0.20 -0.26 -0.93 -4.25 -1.57 -0.81 -0.46 -2.98 -0.68 -1.97 -0.22 -1.99 -0.21 -0.21 -0.05

Risiko Harga (%) -0.12 -0.65 -0.75 -0.03 -0.09 -0.07 -0.26 -0.16 -0.60 -0.90 -0.23 -1.12 -0.53 -0.21 -1.03 -1.24 -0.30 -0.45 -0.29

Upah (%) -1.24 -1.01 -1.24 -2.20 -0.02 -0.16 -0.06 -0.72 -9.24 -0.35 -3.21 -1.56 -3.56 -4.23 -0.02 -4.25 -0.12 -0.28 -0.08

320 TK dalam kel. pria kubis (TKPDKB) TK dalam kel. wanta kubis (TKWDKB) TK luar kel.pria kubis (TKPLKB) TK luar kel.wanita (TKWLKB) TK pria pada off farm (TKPOF) TK wanita pada off farm (TKWOF) TK pria pada non farm (TKPNF) TK wanita pada non farm (TKWNF) Konsumsi (KONS) Total pengeluaran rumahtangga (PENG) Pendapatan pria pada off farm (PPOF) Pendapatan wanita pada off farm (PWOF) Total pendapatan off farm (TPOF) Total biaya usahatani kentang (TBUKT) Total biaya usahatani kubis (TBUKB)

Lampiran 12.

-0.71 -1.18 -0.07 -0.32 7.49 0.99 0.43 0.46 -0.34 -0.49 4.27 1.25 5.01 -0.43 -0.18

-0.10 -0.64 -0.22 -1.49 4.18 0.61 0.02 0.04 -0.21 -0.33 3.24 1.37 5.62 -0.38 -0.12

-1.42 -1.68 -3.07 -0.29 2.78 0.58 1.17 0.64 -0.39 -0.27 3.15 1.40 4.53 -0.35 -0.19

Risiko Produksi (%) -4.11 -1.99 1.48 0.95 0.99 -4.33 -4.09 -0.58 -0.35 -0.21 -0.90 -0.91 -0.62 -0.44 -0.18

Risiko Harga (%) -0.74 -1.19 1.22 0.83 1.44 -0.27 -0.21 -0.03 -0.07 -0.41 -0.07 -0.04 -3.65 -0.22 -0.13

Upah (%) -5.62 -3.67 1.18 0.91 1.84 -4.90 -4.30 -0.67 -0.35 -0.29 -1.27 -1.26 -0.88 -0.29 -0.15

Lanjutan

Variabel Pendapatan kentang (PUTKT) Pendapatan kubis (PUTKB) Pendapatan pria pada non farm (PPNF) Pendapatan wanita pada non farm (PWNF) Total pendapatan non farm (TPNF) Total pendapatan usahatani (TPUT) Total pendapatan rumahtangga (TPRT) Pengeluaran pangan (PPANG) Pengeluaran non pangan (PNPG) Pengeluaran kesehatan (PKS) Pengeluaran pendidikan (PPEND) Tabungan (TAB) Investasi produksi (INVES) Nilai pupuk usahatani kentang (NPPKT) Nilai pupuk usahatani kubis (NPPKB)

Keterangan : Peningkatan risiko produksi kentang sebesar 5 persen Peningkatan risiko harga kubis sebesar 5 persen Peningkatan upah tenaga kerja sebesar 20 persen

321

Lampiran 13. Rekapitulasi Pengaruh Peningkatan Risiko Produksi, Risiko Harga Kubis dan Upah Usahatani Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Sedang di Kecamatan Pangalengan Kabupaten Bandung Variabel Luas lahan kentang (LHGKT) Produktivitas kentang (PRDKT)

Produksi kentang (PKT) Benih kentang (PBNHKT) Pupuk nitrogen (PPKNKT) Pupuk phosphor (PPKPKT) Obat-obatan kentang (PESKT) TK dalam kel. pria kentang(TKPDKT) TK dalam kel. wanita (TKWDKT) TK luar kel.pria (TKPLKT) TK luar kel. wanita (TKWLKT) Total TK dalam keluarga (TKDKT) Total TK luar keluarga (TKLKT) Luas lahan kubis (LHGKB) Produktivitas kubis (PRDKB)

Produksi kubis (PKB) Benih kubis (PBNHKB) Pupuk NPK (PNPKB) Obat-obatan kubis (PESKB)

Risiko Produksi (%) -2.64 -1.16 -3.56 -0.49 -0.15 -0.13 -0.91 -4.21 -1.50 -0.75 -0.44 -2.11 -0.58 -1.85 -0.19 -1.87 -0.18 -0.22 -0.05

Risiko Harga (%) -0.13 -0.60 -0.71 -0.02 -0.08 -0.09 -0.2 -0.13 -0.61 -0.83 -0.16 -1.05 -0.47 -0.19 -1.02 -1.18 -0.24 -0.43 -0.25

Upah (%) -0.86 -0.96 -0.78 -1.97 -0.14 -0.02 -0.97 -0.98 -9.13 -0.10 -2.61 -1.42 -3.43 -4.20 -0.04 -4.26 -0.08 -0.47 -0.13

322 TK dalam kel. pria kubis (TKPDKB) TK dalam kel. wanta kubis (TKWDKB) TK luar kel.pria kubis (TKPLKB) TK luar kel.wanita (TKWLKB) TK pria pada off farm (TKPOF) TK wanita pada off farm (TKWOF) TK pria pada non farm (TKPNF) TK wanita pada non farm (TKWNF) Konsumsi (KONS) Total pengeluaran rumahtangga (PENG) Pendapatan pria pada off farm (PPOF) Pendapatan wanita pada off farm (PWOF) Total pendapatan off farm (TPOF) Total biaya usahatani kentang (TBUKT) Total biaya usahatani kubis (TBUKB)

Lampiran 13.

-0.85 -1.35 -0.00 -0.32 5.06 0.82 0.67 0.65 -0.31 -0.45 3.57 1.18 4.22 -0.39 -0.01

-0.09 -0.67 -0.23 -1.33 2.33 0.56 0.03 0.05 -0.18 -0.27 3.19 1.32 3.82 -0.32 -0.11

-0.66 -1.32 -3.18 -0.62 1.78 0.14 1.02 0.62 -0.27 -0.23 3.20 1.54 3.98 -0.29 -0.15

Risiko Produksi (%) -4.00 -1.91 2.56 1.75 1.55 -4.29 -4.40 -0.46 -0.26 -0.16 -1.16 -0.89 -0.67 -0.04 -0.19

Risiko Harga (%) -0.71 -1.10 1.29 1.21 1.25 -0.20 -0.22 -0.03 -0.06 -0.33 -0.08 -0.04 -3.53 -0.19 -0.10

Upah (%) -4.72 -3.58 1.25 1.04 1.33 -3.43 -3.40 -1.13 -0.65 -0.40 -2.88 -2.21 -1.67 -0.25 -0.12

Lanjutan



323

Lampiran 14. Rekapitulasi Pengaruh Peningkatan Risiko Produksi, Risiko Harga Kubis dan Upah Usahatani Terhadap Perilaku Ekonomi Rumahtangga Petani Sayuran Lahan Luas di Kecamatan Pangalengan Kabupaten Bandung

Variabel Luas lahan kentang (LHGKT) Produktivitas kentang (PRDKT)

Produksi kentang (PKT) Benih kentang (PBNHKT) Pupuk nitrogen (PPKNKT) Pupuk phosphor (PPKPKT) Obat-obatan kentang (PESKT) TK dalam kel. pria kentang(TKPDKT) TK dalam kel. wanita (TKWDKT) TK luar kel.pria (TKPLKT) TK luar kel. wanita (TKWLKT) Total TK dalam keluarga (TKDKT) Total TK luar keluarga (TKLKT) Luas lahan kubis (LHGKB) Produktivitas kubis (PRDKB)

Produksi kubis (PKB) Benih kubis (PBNHKB) Pupuk NPK (PNPKB)

Risiko Produksi (%) -2.60 -0.94 -3.10 -0.38 -0.10 -0.13 -0.88 -4.15 -1.49 -0.75 -0.43 -2.02 -0.55 -1.78 -0.16 -1.84 -0.14 -0.18

Risiko Harga (%) -0.18 -0.57 -0.74 -0.03 -0.08 -0.09 -0.19 -0.1 -0.68 -0.80 -0.22 -0.97 -0.45 -0.15 -1.02 -1.13 -0.20 -0.51

Upah (%) -1.22 -0.93 -1.22 -1.80 -0.05 -0.18 -0.06 -0.72 -10.98 -0.31 -3.20 -1.38 -3.36 -4.17 -0.03 -4.20 -0.12 -0.29

324 Obat-obatan kubis (PESKB) TK dalam kel. pria kubis (TKPDKB) TK dalam kel. wanta kubis (TKWDKB) TK luar kel.pria kubis (TKPLKB) TK luar kel.wanita (TKWLKB) TK pria pada off farm (TKPOF) TK wanita pada off farm (TKWOF) TK pria pada non farm (TKPNF) TK wanita pada non farm (TKWNF) Konsumsi (KONS) Total pengeluaran rumahtangga (PENG) Pendapatan pria pada off farm (PPOF) Pendapatan wanita pada off farm (PWOF) Total pendapatan off farm (TPOF) Total biaya usahatani kentang (TBUKT) Total biaya usahatani kubis (TBUKB)

-0.06 -0.76 -1.25 -0.00 -0.33 4.72 0.75 0.57 0.36 -0.24 -0.35 3.55 1.20 2.37 -0.38 -0.01

-0.31 -0.09 -0.75 -0.31 -1.58 1.04 0.55 0.03 0.03 -0.15 -0.23 3.20 1.35 1.83 -0.30 -0.09

-0.08 -1.53 -1.08 -3.23 -0.28 1.37 0.89 1.58 0.61 -0.25 -0.20 3.48 1.59 3.74 -0.28 -0.09

Risiko Produksi (%) -4.03 -1.86 2.50 1.87 1.36 -4.25 -4.12 -0.43 -0.21 -0.18 -0.69 -0.85 -0.57 -0.03 -0.17

Risiko Harga (%) -0.68 -1.07 2.21 1.58 1.14 -0.18 -0.24 -0.03 -0.06 -0.43 -0.06 -0.04 -3.64 -0.15 -0.10

Upah (%) -3.96 -3.37 1.95 1.28 1.39 -2.85 -2.30 -0.74 -0.35 -0.31 -1.18 -1.45 -0.98 -0.21 -0.15

Lampiran 14. Lanjutan



DAFTAR PUSTAKA. Anderson, J.R., J.L. Dillon and J.B. Hardaker Agricultural Decision Analysis. The Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa

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