DAFTAR ISI. DAFTAR ISI... i. DAFTAR TABEL... v. DAFTAR GAMBAR... vii. DAFTAR LAMPIRAN... ix. BAB I PENDAHULUAN... Error! Bookmark not defined

DAFTAR ISI DAFTAR ISI ............................................................................................................ i DAFTAR TABEL ................................................................................................... v DAFTAR GAMBAR ............................................................................................ vii DAFTAR LAMPIRAN .......................................................................................... ix BAB I PENDAHULUAN ..................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. I.1 Latar Belakang .............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. I.2 Rumusan Masalah ......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. I.3 Batasan Masalah ........................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. I.4 Manfaat Penelitian ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. I.5 Tujuan ........................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. I.6 Sistematika Penulisan ................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. BAB II KAJIAN PUSTAKA ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. II.1 Investasi ....................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.2 Capital Budgeting ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. II.3 Komponen Capital Budgeting ..................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.3.1 Initial Investment ................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.3.2 Cash Flow ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. II.4 Time Value Of Money .................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. II.4.1 Discount Rate ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Rizky Probo Triyantoro, 2013 Sistem Pakar Penganggaran Modal Dengan Kecerdasan Resiko Dan Analisis Bisnis Pada Aset Tetap Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu| perpustakaan.upi.edu

II.4.2 Present Value ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. II.4.3 Future Value.......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.5 Capital Budgeting Analysis ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.5.1 Payback Period Analysis....................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.5.2 Net Present Value Analysis ................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.6 Sistem Pakar ................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. II.6.1 Konsep Dasar Sistem Pakar .................. Error! Bookmark not defined. II.6.2 Bentuk Sistem Pakar ............................. Error! Bookmark not defined. II.6.3 Motor Inferance .................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7 Metode Peramalan (Forecasting Method) ... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7.1 Nilai Rata-Rata Tertimbang (Weighted Average Value) & Nilai Diharapkan (Expected Value) ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7.2 Peramalan Resiko .................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7.3 Distribusi Probabilitas .......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7.4 Standar Deviasi ..................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. II.7.5 Coefficient of Variation ......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. BAB III METODOLOGI PENELITIAN ............. Error! Bookmark not defined. III.1 Desain Penelitian ........................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. III.2 Metodologi Penelitian ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. III.2.1 Pengumpulan Data ............................... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Rizky Probo Triyantoro, 2013 Sistem Pakar Penganggaran Modal Dengan Kecerdasan Resiko Dan Analisis Bisnis Pada Aset Tetap Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu| perpustakaan.upi.edu

III.2.2 Metodologi Pengembangan Perangkat Lunak ... Error! Bookmark not defined. III.3 Alat dan Bahan Penelitian .......................... Error! Bookmark not defined. III.3.1 Alat Penelitian...................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. III.3.2 Bahan Penelitian .................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. III.4 Capital Budgeting & Forecasting Method . Error! Bookmark not defined. BAB IV HASIL PENELITIAN DAN PEMBAHASAN ..... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.1 Penelitian Analisis Kelayakan Usaha ......... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.1.1 Capital Budgeting ................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.1.2 Forecasting Analysis Method............... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.2 Analisis Data .............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.3 Metode Analisis ......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.3.1 Metode Analisis Perhitungan Cash Flow .......... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.3.2 Metode Analisis Perhitungan Present Value ..... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.3.3 Metode Analisis Perhitungan Payback Period .. Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.3.4 Metode Analisis Perhitungan Net Present Value ..... Error! Bookmark not defined. Rizky Probo Triyantoro, 2013 Sistem Pakar Penganggaran Modal Dengan Kecerdasan Resiko Dan Analisis Bisnis Pada Aset Tetap Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia | repository.upi.edu| perpustakaan.upi.edu

IV.4 Metode Analisis Perhitungan Pengaruh Fluktuasi Terhadap Cash Inflow ............................................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.4.1 Perhitungan Data Peramalan ............... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.5 Penarikan Hasil Kelayakan Usaha ............. Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6 Pembahasan Sistem .................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6.1 Batasan Sistem ..................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6.2 Analisis Perangkat Lunak .................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6.3 Desain Perangkat Lunak ...................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6.4 Implementasi ....................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.6.5 Pengujian ............................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. IV.7 Hasil Pengujian .......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. BAB V PENUTUP ................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. V.1 Kesimpulan .................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. V.2 Saran ............................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. DAFTAR PUSTAKA ............................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. LAMPIRAN SURAT PENELITIAN .................... Error! Bookmark not defined. LAMPIRAN DATA PENELITIAN ...................... Error! Bookmark not defined. LAMPIRAN HITUNGAN DATA PENELITIAN Error! Bookmark not defined. LAMPIRAN STANDART OPERASIONAL PROSEDUR Error! Bookmark not defined.


LAMPIRAN RIWAYAT HIDUP PENULIS ........ Error! Bookmark not defined.


DAFTAR TABEL Tabel 2.1 Ilustrasi Capital Budgeting ...................................................................14 Tabel 2.2 Ilustrasi Cash flow terhadap initial investment .................................... 19 Tabel 4.1 Data Initial Statment (Start Up Cost) ...................................................55 Tabel 4.2 Data Operational Expenses...................................................................55 Tabel 4.3 Data Income Statement

....................................................................56

Tabel 4.4 Cash Flow

....................................................................57

Tabel 4.5 Periode cash inflow

....................................................................62

Tabel 4.6 Present value cash inflow .....................................................................63 Tabel 4.7 Kumulatif Cash Inflow

....................................................................65

Tabel 4.8 Acutal Data of Cash Flow ....................................................................70 Tabel 4.9 Forecasting of Cash Flow ....................................................................72 Tabel 4.10 Kumulatif Cash Flow of Weigthed Value........................................... 73 Tabel 4.11 Standart Deviasi Cash Inflow .............................................................75 Tabel 4.12 Analisis Masukan

....................................................................87

Tabel 4.13 Analisis Output

....................................................................88

Tabel 4.14 Motor Inference Analisis ....................................................................89 Tabel 4.15 Daftar spesifikasi user interface .........................................................98 Tabel 4.16 Implementasi Komponen Perangkat Lunak .....................................100


Tabel 4.17 Daftar hasil implementasi antarmuka .............................................101 Tabel 4.18 Rencana Pengujian

................................................................105

Tabel 4.19 Hasil Pengujian sistem

................................................................107

Tabel 4.20 Hasil Pembanding Kelayakan Usaha

........................................110


DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Diagram Ilustrasi Investasi ........................................................11 Gambar 2.2 Diagram alur Analisis Capital Budgeting ....................................22 Gambar 3.1 Diagram Kerangka Metodologi Penelitian ....................................38 Gambar 3.2 Tahapan Pengembangan Sistem Pakar ........................................42 Gambar 3.3 Diagram Metode Capital Budgeting Analysis & Forecasting Analysis

.............................................................................................47

Gambar 3.4 Diagram Proses Metode Capital Budgeting & Forecasting........... 48 Gambar 4.1 Bar Chart Dispersi Cash Inflow Proyek MPSTE ..........................77 Gambar 4.2 Flow Chart Penarikan Kelayakan Capex Standart .........................82 Gambar 4.3 Flow Chart Penarikan Kelayajan Forecast Capex ........................83 Gambar 4.4 Deskripsi Umum Sistem ............................................................85 Gambar 4.5 Struktur Sistem Pakar ................................................................91 Gambar 4.6 Entitas Relational Diagram ...........................................................92 Gambar 4.7 Context Diagram ......................................................................93 Gambar 4.8 Fitur Pemasukan Data Pilihan ........................................................94 Gambar 4.9 Fitur Pemasukan Data Manual Initial Investment ..........................95 Gambar 4.10 Fitur Hasil Analisis CAPEX ........................................................96


Gambar 4.11 Fitur Hasil Analisis Capex Forecast ..............................................97 Gambar 4.12 Rekam Data Capex ...................................................................102 Gambar 4.13 Capex List Project ...................................................................102 Gambar 4.14 Antarmuka hasil Konklusi Kelayakan Usaha .............................103 Gambar 4.15 Keluaran Grafik Cash Flow ........................................................104 Gambar 4.16 Keluaran Grafik Weigthed Average Value ................................104 Gambar 4.17 Keluaran Grafik Expected Value ................................................105


DAFTAR LAMPIRAN Lampiran Surat Penelitian Lampiran Data Penelitian Lampiran Data Perhitungan Lampiran Standart Operasional Prosedur


DAFTAR ISI. DAFTAR ISI... i. DAFTAR TABEL... v. DAFTAR GAMBAR... vii. DAFTAR LAMPIRAN... ix. BAB I PENDAHULUAN... Error! Bookmark not defined

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