CAPITAL BUDGETING AND RISK ANALYSIS
Ukuran-ukuran Risiko Proyek Risiko Proyek yang berdiri sendiri
Ukuran-ukuran Risiko Proyek Risiko Proyek yang berdiri sendiri Risiko didiversifikasikan dalam perusahan ketika proyek ini dikombinasikan dengan proyek2 dan aktiva perusahaan lainnya..
Ukuran-ukuran Risiko Proyek Risiko Proyek yang berdiri sendiri
Risiko proyek terhadap perusahaan
Risiko didiversifikasikan dalam perusahan ketika proyek ini dikombinasikan dengan proyek2 dan aktiva perusahaan lainnya..
Ukuran-ukuran Risiko Proyek Risiko Proyek yang berdiri sendiri
Risiko proyek terhadap perusahaan
Risiko didiversifikasikan dalam perusahan ketika proyek ini dikombinasikan dengan proyek2 dan aktiva perusahaan lainnya..
Risiko didiversifikasikan oleh pemegang saham ketika sekuritas dikombinasikan sehingga membentuk portfolio yang terdiversifikasi.
Ukuran-ukuran Risiko Proyek Risiko Proyek yang berdiri sendiri
Risiko proyek terhadap perusahaan
Risiko Sistematis
Risiko didiversifikasikan dalam perusahan ketika proyek ini dikombinasikan dengan proyek2 dan aktiva perusahaan lainnya..
Risiko didiversifikasikan oleh pemegang saham ketika sekuritas dikombinasikan sehingga membentuk portfolio yang terdiversifikasi.
Incorporating Risk into Capital Budgeting Two Methods: Certainty Equivalent Approach Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate
How can we adjust this model to take risk into account? n
NPV =
S
t=1
FCFt (1 + k) t
- IO
How can we adjust this model to take risk into account? n
NPV =
S
FCFt (1 + k) t
- IO
t=1
Adjust the After-tax Cash Flows (ACFs), or Adjust the discount rate (k).
Certainty Equivalent Approach Adjusts the risky after-tax cash flows to certain cash flows. The idea:
Certainty Equivalent Approach Adjusts the risky after-tax cash flows to certain cash flows. The idea: Risky Cash Flow
X
Certainty Equivalent Factor (a)
Certain = Cash Flow
Certainty Equivalent Approach Risky Cash X Flow Risky $1000
Certainty Equivalent Factor (a)
.70
=
Certain Cash Flow “safe” $700
Certainty Equivalent Approach Risky Cash X Flow Risky $1000
Certainty Equivalent Factor (a)
.95
=
Certain Cash Flow “safe” $950
The greater the risk associated with a particular cash flow, the smaller the CE factor.
Certainty Equivalent Method
n
NPV =
S t=1
t ACFt
IO (1 + krf) t
Certainty Equivalent Approach
Steps: 1) Adjust all after-tax cash flows by certainty equivalent factors to get certain cash flows.
2) Discount the certain cash flows by the risk-free rate of interest.
Incorporating Risk into Capital Budgeting
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate
How can we adjust this model to take risk into account? n
NPV =
S t=1
ACFt (1 + k) t
- IO
How can we adjust this model to take risk into account? n
NPV =
S
ACFt (1 + k) t
- IO
t=1
Adjust the discount rate (k).
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate Simply adjust the discount rate (k) to reflect higher risk. Riskier projects will use higher risk-adjusted discount rates. Calculate NPV using the new riskadjusted discount rate.
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate n
NPV =
S t=1
FCFt IO t (1 + k*)
Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates How do we determine the appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate (k*) to use? Many firms set up risk classes to categorize different types of projects.
Risk Classes Risk RADR Class (k*) 1 12% 2 3 4
14% 16% 24%
Project Type Replace equipment, Expand current business Related new products Unrelated new products Research & Development
Summary: Risk and Capital Budgeting You can adjust your capital budgeting methods for projects having different levels of risk by: Adjusting the discount rate used (riskadjusted discount rate method), Measuring the project’s systematic risk, Analyzing computer simulation methods, Performing scenario analysis, and Performing sensitivity analysis.
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