BI Rate : Here to Stay

WEEKLY REPORT

BI Rate : Here to Stay

Key Market Indicators as of 09-Dec-13 BI Rate JCI Index IDR Inflation(y-o-y) - Nov-13

7.50% 4,214 11,974 8.37%

Domestic Bonds Outstanding as of 09-Dec-13 Government Bonds IDR 1002.3tn Corporate Bonds IDR 219.03tn Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds Corporate Bonds

IDR 37.34tn IDR 2.24tn

Benchmark Yield as of 09-Dec-13 FR0066 (5 year) FR0063 (10 year) FR0064 (15 year) FR0065 (20 year) Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM

Average Rupiah 11,000 10,396

10,500 8.183% 8.706% 9.156% 9.218%

10,347

10,000 9,500

9,675

9,710

9,386

9,000

9,166

9,084

9,141

8,500 Government Bonds Indices as of 09-Dec-13 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) 118.56 Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.80% Total Return YTD 360.41

8,772 2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

8,000 2013

BB+ Baa3 BBB-

2012

Indonesia FCLT Rating S&P Moody's Fitch

Tren pelemahan Rupiah yang terus berlanjut masih menjadi fokus utama para investor asing ataupun lokal untuk berhati-hati dalam berinvestasi di pasar Obligasi. Dari akhir tahun 2012 hingga 6 Desember 2013, Rupiah telah mengalami depresiasi sebesar 22,17%, atau meningkat dari Rp9,795 per US$ menjadi Rp11.964 per US$. Selain itu, rata-rata nilai tukar Rupiah pada tahun 2013 mencapai Rp10.347 US$, sedangkan rata-rata untuk tahun 2011 dan 2012 masing-masing sebesar Rp8.772 per US$ dan Rp9.386 per US$. Bank Indonesia dapat menggunakan Reverse Repo atau BI rate untuk mengurangi jumlah uang yang beredar. Hal tersebut dapat dilihat dari peningkatan outstanding reverse repo yang signifikan selama minggu lalu yaitu sebesar Rp27,1 triliun dan meningkatnya kepemilikan domestik bank sebesar Rp24,97 triliun menjadi Rp381,3 triliun dari tanggal 29 November hingga 4 Desember 2013. BI memilih menggunakan Reverse Repo sebagai instrumen pengendalian Rupiah, oleh sebab itu BI rate diperkirakan tetap di 7,5% hingga akhir tahun .

The weakening trend of the rupiah is the main reason why foreign and local investors are taking a cautious stance on the Indonesian bonds market. From the end of 2012 until December 6, 2013, the rupiah lost 22.17 % of its value, depreciating to IDR11,964 per US$ from IDR9,795 per US$. So far in 2013, the average rupiah/US$ exchange rate stands at IDR10,347 US$. This compares to an average rate of IDR8,772 per US$ in 2011 and IDR9,386 per US$ in 2012. To shore up the value of the rupiah, Bank Indonesia may use the reverse repo or the BI rate to reduce the money supply in circulation. This seems evident last week as the outstanding reverse repo showed a significant increase (up IDR27.1 trillion to IDR113.9 trillion) while domestic bank SUN holdings increased by IDR24.97 trillion to IDR381.3 trillion in the week up to 4 December. With BI using the reverse repo to support the rupiah, the BI rate can be expected to stay at 7.5% for the rest of the

2011

9 - 13 DECEMBER 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate

Bank Indonesia (incl. RR)

Calendar of Event 12-Dec-13 US Initial Jobless Claim (Survey : 320K Prior : 298K)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Domestic Bank (excl. RR BI)

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

16-Dec-13 Germany Manufacturing PMI Markit Survey (Survey : NA; Prior : 52.7K)

Dec-13

12-Dec-13 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate (Survey : 7.5%; Prior : 7.5%)

IDR Trillion

Bank Indonesia (incl. RR) & Domestic Bank (excl. RR) Ownership

Source: Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Analysts Rifki Rizal 3509888 ext 3404 [email protected]

www.danareksa.com

900

Avg Monthly Reverse Repo

80

850

70

800

60

750

50

700

40

650

30

600

IDR Trillion

Money Supply

30-Nov-11 31-Dec-11 31-Jan-12 29-Feb-12 31-Mar-12 30-Apr-12 31-May-12 30-Jun-12 31-Jul-12 31-Aug-12 30-Sep-12 31-Oct-12 30-Nov-12 31-Dec-12 31-Jan-13 28-Feb-13 31-Mar-13 30-Apr-13 31-May-13 30-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 30-Nov-13

Please read important disclosure at the back of this report

90

IDR Trillion

Amir A. Dalimunthe 3509888 ext.3405 [email protected]

Monthly Money Supply & Average Reverse Repo Outstanding


D E B T RESEARCH

9 - 13 December 2013

WEEKLY REPORT

MACROECONOMICS CONDITION

Instrument of Tightening The government bonds yield index rose 6bps from 8.72% to 8.78% at the end of last week. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 5-year Credit default swaps (CDS) stood at 225bps as of 6 December, down 10 bps over the week, while Brazil’s 5-year CDS moved in line with Turkey’s 5-year CDS. Bank Indonesia’s holdings of government bonds dropped to IDR3.3 trillion as of December 4, 2013, while foreign holdings rose IDR1.72 trillion to IDR325.9 trillion from IDR324.2 trillion. The SUN holdings of domestic banks were recorded at IDR381.2 trillion. Based on this data, it appears that Bank Indonesia reduced money supply by making use of the reverse repo; or, in other words, BI is tightening.

Indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah meningkat 6bps dari 8,72% menjadi 8,78% pada akhir minggu lalu. Credit default swap (CDS) 5-tahun Indonesia per tanggal 6 Desember sebesar 225bps, turun 10 bps dari minggu sebelumnya. Sedangkan CDS 5-tahun Brazil bergerak beriringan dengan CDS 5-tahun Turki sejak akhir November 2013. Kepemilikan Bank Indonesia dalam obligasi Pemerintah per 4 Desember 2013 turun menjadi Rp3,3 triliun, sementara itu kepemilikan asing naik Rp1,72 triliun dari Rp324,2 triliun menjadi Rp325,9 triliun. Di sisi lain, kepemilikan domestik bank akhir minggu lalu mencapai Rp381,2 triliun. Berdasarkan data tersebut, terlihat bahwa BI menarik uang yang beredar dengan menggunakan Reverse Repo, atau dengan kata lain BI melakukan kebijakan pengetatan moneter.

Yield Index

CDS 5-Year (bps)

Gov't Bonds Ownership

9-Dec-13

3-Dec-13

27-Nov-13

21-Nov-13

15-Nov-13

4-Nov-13

11-Nov-13

23-Oct-13

9-Oct-13

17-Oct-13

3-Oct-13

29-Oct-13

Brazil

Turkey

325 305 285 9-Sep-13 12-Sep-13 17-Sep-13 20-Sep-13 25-Sep-13 30-Sep-13 3-Oct-13 8-Oct-13 11-Oct-13 18-Oct-13 23-Oct-13 28-Oct-13 31-Oct-13 6-Nov-13 11-Nov-13 14-Nov-13 19-Nov-13 22-Nov-13 27-Nov-13 2-Dec-13

265

BI (RHS)

Domestic Bank

Foreign Investors

16-Sep-13 19-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 27-Sep-13 2-Oct-13 7-Oct-13 10-Oct-13 17-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 4-Nov-13 8-Nov-13 13-Nov-13 18-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec-13

345

12,050 11,950 11,850 11,750 11,650 11,550 11,450 11,350 11,250 11,150 11,050 10,950 10,850 10,750 10,650

IDR trillion

120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

365 IDR trillion

Philipinnes

Rupiah closed at Rp11,964 per USD

385

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Ministry of Finance Corporate Bonds Trading by Tenor

Corporate Bonds Trading by Sector

0.8

Infrastructure 19.92%

0.7

Banking 8.72% Others 4.49%

0.6 IDR trillion

27-Sep-13

Indonesia Source: Bloomberg

Source: Danareksa, Bloomberg

RR-BI (RHS)

23-Sep-13

17-Sep-13

5-Sep-13

11-Sep-13

BI Rate Inflation Forecast

30-Aug-13

Yield Index (LHS) Inflation

300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 26-Aug-13

11-Sep-13 16-Sep-13 19-Sep-13 24-Sep-13 27-Sep-13 2-Oct-13 7-Oct-13 10-Oct-13 17-Oct-13 22-Oct-13 25-Oct-13 30-Oct-13 4-Nov-13 8-Nov-13 13-Nov-13 18-Nov-13 21-Nov-13 26-Nov-13 29-Nov-13 4-Dec-13 9-Dec-13

9.00% 8.75% 8.50% 8.25% 8.00% 7.75% 7.50% 7.25% 7.00% 6.75%

0.5

Property & Construction 26.13%

0.4

Mining Oil & Natural Gas 3.08%

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Financial Company 37.66%

Term to Maturity Source: IDX Process Data

Source: IDX Process Data 2


WEEKLY REPORT

GOVERNMENT BONDS REVIEW

Greater pressure on short tenor The uptrend in government bond yields eased for both mid and long tenors (this is reflected in the fact that the change in the yield curve was greater for short tenors than it was for either mid or long tenors). Note that the average yield increase for short tenors was 0.21%, whereas for medium and long tenors the figures were 0.026% and 0.008%, respectively. Last week’s total trading in government bonds reached IDR37.36 trillion, up by IDR61.8 billion from the previous week. Total trading in corporate bonds, by comparison, reached IDR2.24 trillion, up from IDR708 billion the previous week. Last week’s government bonds trading was dominated by trading in long tenors (40.58%), while the trading in corporate bonds was dominated by 2-year tenors (amounting to Rp716 billion).

Tren peningkatan yield obligasi melambat untuk tenor panjang, hal tersebut tercermin dari perubahan yield curve yang tertekan lebih dalam untuk tenor pendek. Rata-rata peningkatan untuk tenor pendek sebesar 0,21%, sedangkan untuk tenor menengah dan panjang masing-masing sebesar 0,026% dan 0,008%. Total perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu mencapai Rp37,36 triliun, naik Rp61,8 miliar dari minggu sebelumnya yang mencapai Rp37,28 triliun. Sementara itu, total perdagangan obligasi koporasi minggu lalu sebesar Rp2,24 triliun, naik Rp708 miliar dari minggu lalu. Perdagangan obligasi Pemerintah minggu lalu didominasi oleh tenor panjang sebesar 40,58%, sedangkan perdagangan obligasi korporasi didominasi oleh tenor 2-tahun sebesar Rp716 miliar.

Spread INDON 10 year Over UST 10 year

Spread IDR Gov't Bond 10 year over INDON 10 year

3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 1.4%

7.0% 3.0%

6.0%

2.5%

5.0% 4.0%

2.0%

UST 10Y

3.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Currency Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

INDON 10Y

Source: US Treasury, Bloomberg, Danareksa Estimate Gov't Bonds Benchmark Series Yield 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5%

Govt Med

Govt Long

Corp

14 12 10 8 6 4 2

9-Dec-13

6-Dec-13

5-Dec-13

4-Dec-13

3-Dec-13

29-Nov-13

28-Nov-13

27-Nov-13

0 26-Nov-13

9-Dec-13

19-Nov-13

7-Oct-13

29-Oct-13

17-Sep-13

1-Aug-13

28-Aug-13

12-Jul-13

3-Jun-13

24-Jun-13

14-May-13

3-Apr-13

23-Apr-13

20-Feb-13

13-Mar-13

31-Jan-13

10-Jan-13

Govt Short

IDR trillion

17-Dec-12

SUN 10Y

Daily Trading Volume

FR0066 - 5Y FR0063 - 10Y FR0064 - 15Y FR0065 - 20Y

Source: IDX processed data

Source: Bloomberg

Yield Curve Change from 29 November to 6 December 2013

Yield Curve Comparison as of 29November 2013 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

INDON 10Y


2-Dec-13

Risk Premium 10Y (LHS)

8.0%

3.5%

30-Nov-12 20-Dec-12 9-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 18-Feb-13 10-Mar-13 30-Mar-13 19-Apr-13 9-May-13 29-May-13 18-Jun-13 8-Jul-13 28-Jul-13 17-Aug-13 6-Sep-13 26-Sep-13 16-Oct-13 5-Nov-13 25-Nov-13

0.9%

9.0%

4.0%

30-Nov-12 18-Dec-12 5-Jan-13 23-Jan-13 10-Feb-13 28-Feb-13 18-Mar-13 5-Apr-13 23-Apr-13 11-May-13 29-May-13 16-Jun-13 4-Jul-13 22-Jul-13 9-Aug-13 27-Aug-13 14-Sep-13 2-Oct-13 20-Oct-13 7-Nov-13 25-Nov-13

6.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.1% 4.6% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1%

8.84%

9.13%

9.27%

9.39%

6.29%

6.55%

6.74%

0.60%

8.28% 5.74%

0.40%

4.19% 2.86%

0.50%

3.24%

3.88%

3.61%

0.30% 0.20%

1.50%

0.10% 0

5

10

15

20

25

UST YC

GoI USD Yield Curve

Source: www.ustreas.gov, Danareksa Estimate

30

0.00% 0

Term to Maturity

2

4

6

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Term to Maturity

GoI IDR Yield Curve

Source: Danareksa Estimate 3


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December 2013 Last Trade Date 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13

Bonds SPN03131211 FR0020 SPN03140109 SPNS24012014 SPN12140217 SR003 SPNS04032014 SPN12140314 SPN03130807 FR0051 SPNS27052014 SPN12140703 SPN12140731 SPN12141009 ORI008 FR0026 VR0020 FR0027 IFR0001 SR004 ORI009 VR0021 SR005 FR0030 FR0055 ORI010 VR0023 FR0060 FR0028 FR0066 FR0032 IFR0002 FR0038 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0046 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0042 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 FR0045 FR0050

Maturity 11-Dec-13 15-Dec-13 9-Jan-14 24-Jan-14 17-Feb-14 23-Feb-14 4-Mar-14 14-Mar-14 7-May-14 15-May-14 27-May-14 3-Jul-14 31-Jul-14 9-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 15-Oct-14 25-Apr-15 15-Jun-15 15-Aug-15 21-Sep-15 15-Oct-15 25-Nov-15 27-Feb-16 15-May-16 15-Sep-16 15-Oct-16 25-Oct-16 15-Apr-17 15-Jul-17 15-May-18 15-Jul-18 15-Aug-18 15-Aug-18 15-Sep-18 15-Apr-19 15-Sep-19 15-Nov-20 15-Jun-21 15-Jul-21 15-May-22 15-Jun-22 15-Jul-22 15-May-23 15-Jul-23 15-Mar-24 15-Sep-24 15-Sep-25 15-Sep-26 15-May-27 15-Jul-27 15-Feb-28 15-May-28 15-Mar-29 15-Aug-30 15-Jul-31 15-Jun-32 15-May-33 15-Mar-34 15-May-37 15-Jul-38

Coupon 14.28 8.15 11.25 7.95 11.00 4.81 9.50 11.80 6.25 6.25 3.75 6.00 10.75 7.38 8.50 4.81 6.25 10.00 5.25 15.00 5.19 11.60 9.00 7.88 11.50 11.00 12.80 8.25 7.00 12.90 10.25 5.63 9.50 8.38 10.00 11.00 8.38 7.00 10.25 10.00 6.13 9.00 10.50 9.50 8.25 6.63 8.38 9.75 10.50

Tenor 0.00 0.01 0.08 0.12 0.19 0.20 0.23 0.26 0.41 0.43 0.46 0.56 0.64 0.83 0.85 0.85 1.38 1.51 1.68 1.78 1.85 1.96 2.21 2.43 2.76 2.85 2.88 3.35 3.60 4.43 4.60 4.68 4.68 4.76 5.35 5.76 6.93 7.51 7.60 8.43 8.51 8.60 9.43 9.60 10.26 10.76 11.76 12.76 13.43 13.60 14.18 14.43 15.26 16.68 17.60 18.51 19.43 20.26 23.43 24.60

Last Done Price 99.96 100.15 99.45 99.39 99.00 100.05 98.44 98.21 97.77 102.00 97.20 96.66 96.10 94.66 99.25 102.55 98.50 102.85 105.53 95.25 95.70 98.75 94.75 106.05 98.07 99.90 98.20 95.10 105.88 88.90 126.20 111.00 113.00 103.00 98.00 113.90 112.80 123.00 97.50 89.50 124.50 108.50 80.00 105.00 97.80 107.70 113.50 94.30 82.75 108.25 105.25 75.75 98.00 111.00 101.85 99.97 74.85 93.35 105.00 110.75

Freq 1.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 7.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 7.00 8.00 1.00 8.00 1.00 2.00 39.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 32.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 10.00 1.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 9.00 27.00 5.00 1.00 23.00 15.00 38.00 1.00 7.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 300.00 45.25 512.60 132.30 200.00 137.26 279.90 100.00 153.45 30.03 230.00 20.00 240.00 63.70 11.24 136.09 1,652.00 183.29 2.00 81.28 160.98 120.00 83.16 15.00 115.08 2,645.51 115.00 12.00 25.90 1,569.25 75.00 6.00 2.00 1.00 1,468.02 28.30 54.01 241.79 435.27 107.37 40.00 50.50 3,736.85 25.00 3,328.92 270.85 316.54 113.01 44.08 432.20 143.00 1,901.58 2,681.75 308.71 441.15 1,943.76 2,368.10 7,004.16 203.00 150.00

Yield 0.04 8.39 0.55 0.62 1.01 8.15 1.58 1.82 2.28 6.58 2.88 3.45 4.06 5.64 8.01 7.84 4.88 7.48 8.23 6.56 6.53 3.80 6.33 7.97 8.16 8.51 4.90 7.93 8.08 8.29 8.08 9.02 8.20 8.22 8.34 8.41 8.52 8.59 8.70 8.79 8.76 8.82 8.78 8.72 8.70 8.87 9.10 9.14 9.27 9.17 9.32 9.19 9.24 9.20 9.28 8.25 9.48 9.10 9.22 9.37

Modified Tenor Duration Class < 1yr 0.00 < 1yr 0.01 < 1yr 0.08 < 1yr 0.12 < 1yr 0.19 < 1yr 0.20 < 1yr 0.23 < 1yr 0.26 < 1yr 0.41 < 1yr 0.43 < 1yr 0.46 < 1yr 0.56 < 1yr 0.64 < 1yr 0.83 < 1yr 0.85 < 1yr 0.85 1yr - 5yr 1.38 1yr - 5yr 1.51 1yr - 5yr 1.68 1yr - 5yr 1.78 1yr - 5yr 1.85 1yr - 5yr 1.96 1yr - 5yr 2.21 1yr - 5yr 2.43 1yr - 5yr 2.76 1yr - 5yr 2.85 1yr - 5yr 2.88 1yr - 5yr 3.35 1yr - 5yr 3.60 1yr - 5yr 4.43 1yr - 5yr 4.60 1yr - 5yr 4.68 1yr - 5yr 4.68 1yr - 5yr 4.76 5yr - 10yr 5.35 5yr - 10yr 5.76 5yr - 10yr 6.93 5yr - 10yr 7.51 5yr - 10yr 7.60 5yr - 10yr 8.43 5yr - 10yr 8.51 5yr - 10yr 8.60 5yr - 10yr 9.43 5yr - 10yr 9.60 > 10yr 10.26 > 10yr 10.76 > 10yr 11.76 > 10yr 12.76 > 10yr 13.43 > 10yr 13.60 > 10yr 14.18 > 10yr 14.43 > 10yr 15.26 > 10yr 16.68 17.60 > 10yr 18.51 > 10yr 19.43 > 10yr 20.26 > 10yr 23.43 > 10yr 24.60 > 10yr

Source: Danareksa, BEI

4


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December 2013 (Cont'd) Last Trade Bonds Date 6-Dec-13 FR0062 3-Dec-13 PBS005

Maturity 15-Apr-42 15-Apr-43

Coupon 6.38 6.75

Tenor 28.35 29.35

Last Done Price 76.25 74.32

Freq 3.00 2.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 5.56 50.00

Yield 8.63 9.32

Tenor Modified Class Duration 28.35 > 10yr 29.35 > 10yr


5


WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 2 December - 6 December 2013 Last Trade Date 3-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13

Bonds ADMF01ACN1 BIMF01A SANF02B SANF01C NISP01ACN1 ASDF01ACN3 VRNA01C SMFP02ACN2 FIFA01ACN2 FIFA01BCN1 FIFA11C IMFI01ACN2 ADMF05C TAFS03A SIKISAT02 ISAT05A OTMA07D MEDC02B INDF05 BCAF01ACN2 TRAC03B ASDF02ACN1 PNBN04 ASDF01BCN2 ADMF04E ADMF02ACN2 CFIN03C PPLN07 SIKSIMP01 SIMP01 PPKT02 ASDF02ACN2 ISAT07A ADMF01BCN1 SIKMAPI01B BEXI01ACN1 SANF02C ASDF01BCN1 FIFA01CCN1 BCAF01CCN1 TUFI06D TAFS02B BIIF01B SMSM02C SIKPPLN04A SSIA01A BWPT01 BTPN03B DNRK01ACN1 BIMF01B BCAF01DCN1 PPGD11A TUFI01ACN1 BCAF01BCN2 BDKI06B PPLN08A APLN01B JSMR01BCN1S BNII01BCN1

Maturity 16-Dec-13 14-Jan-14 20-Jan-14 25-Jan-14 1-Mar-14 4-Mar-14 18-Mar-14 31-Mar-14 14-Apr-14 20-Apr-14 26-Apr-14 18-May-14 27-May-14 27-May-14 29-May-14 29-May-14 8-Jun-14 17-Jun-14 18-Jun-14 24-Jun-14 5-Jul-14 7-Jul-14 6-Oct-14 12-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 3-Nov-14 8-Nov-14 11-Nov-14 1-Dec-14 1-Dec-14 4-Dec-14 6-Dec-14 8-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 16-Dec-14 20-Dec-14 20-Jan-15 21-Feb-15 20-Apr-15 9-May-15 19-May-15 5-Jun-15 7-Jun-15 8-Jul-15 8-Jul-15 6-Nov-15 16-Nov-15 22-Dec-15 9-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 9-May-16 23-May-16 5-Jun-16 14-Jun-16 17-Jun-16 21-Jun-16 25-Aug-16 27-Sep-16 6-Dec-16

Coupon 7.75 10.65 7.70 9.30 6.40 6.75 11.25 6.80 6.75 7.35 9.60 7.00 9.60 6.60 10.20 10.20 10.37 14.25 13.00 6.50 7.75 6.75 11.50 7.50 9.25 9.15 10.25 12.25 11.65 11.65 10.75 8.75 11.25 8.00 13.00 7.00 8.40 8.00 7.65 7.60 10.70 7.50 7.90 10.80 9.70 8.30 10.68 9.20 8.20 11.65 7.70 13.10 7.75 7.50 9.90 13.60 11.00 8.70 8.75

Tenor 0.02 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.49 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.57 0.58 0.82 0.84 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.11 1.20 1.36 1.41 1.44 1.49 1.49 1.58 1.58 1.91 1.93 2.03 2.08 2.08 2.41 2.45 2.49 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.71 2.80 2.99

Rating idAA+ [Idr]BBB idAAidA idAAA/AAA(idn) idAA+ id A idAA idAA+/AAA(idn) idAA+ idAA idA idAA+ AAA(idn) idAA+(sy) idAA+ idAAAAAA idAA+/AAA(idn) idA+ idAA+ AAidAA+ idAA idAA+ idA+ idAA+ AAAAAAidAA+/AAA(idn) AA+ idAA+ A+ idAAA idAAidAA+ idAA+ idAA+/AA+(idn) idA+ idAA/AAA(idn) AA+(idn) idAAidAA+(sy) idA idA AA-(idn) idA [Idr]BBB idAA+/AA+(idn) idAA+ idAA idAA+/AAA(idn) idA+ idAA+ idA idAA AAA(idn)

Last Done Price 100.04 99.00 99.60 100.20 99.20 99.22 100.35 99.53 99.77 99.48 99.33 99.16 100.50 99.30 99.53 100.33 100.99 102.50 101.29 98.18 98.84 98.95 91.50 98.50 99.90 99.35 101.08 102.47 102.50 103.00 101.60 100.00 101.63 98.37 103.57 97.52 98.48 98.02 95.20 99.28 98.53 96.77 95.60 100.00 100.60 100.05 87.25 98.62 94.00 98.53 86.50 108.95 94.78 95.35 95.00 107.65 105.00 98.21 97.00

Freq 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 8.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 7.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 2.00 6.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 2.00 2.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 1.50 17.00 5.00 0.20 40.00 55.00 5.00 0.20 20.20 0.30 2.00 0.20 3.90 1.10 4.00 4.00 0.20 4.00 4.00 30.00 0.20 1.00 91.47 116.00 20.20 5.00 6.00 58.00 9.50 3.00 9.00 37.00 10.00 2.00 6.00 2.00 46.30 4.80 32.00 50.00 2.00 2.90 2.00 2.00 4.60 42.00 4.00 6.00 3.00 20.00 1.00 35.00 60.00 100.00 5.00 68.00 114.00 300.00 4.00

Yield 6.64 19.98 10.71 7.73 9.82 10.00 10.01 8.30 7.40 8.77 11.34 8.91 8.52 8.08 11.20 9.49 8.34 9.40 10.49 9.90 9.82 8.57 22.82 9.34 9.36 9.89 9.02 9.44 8.98 8.48 9.05 8.75 9.54 9.67 9.35 9.51 9.84 9.74 11.47 8.13 11.81 9.84 11.11 10.79 9.29 8.27 18.62 9.95 11.45 12.45 14.39 9.01 10.14 9.59 12.22 10.15 8.91 9.43 9.92

Modified Duration 0.04 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.23 0.24 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.44 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.76 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.93 0.97 0.94 0.98 1.05 1.14 1.27 1.33 1.32 1.39 1.37 1.42 1.44 1.75 1.68 1.82 1.86 1.80 2.13 2.10 2.19 2.22 2.15 2.10 2.35 2.43 2.55


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WEEKLY REPORT

APPENDICES Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds TradingTrading 2 December - 6 December 2013 (Cont'd) Last Trade Date 5-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 5-Dec-13 2-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 6-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 4-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 3-Dec-13 4-Dec-13

Bonds ADMF01CCN1 BNGA01B ASDF01CCN1 SMFP01CCN2 WSKT02B BCAF01CCN2 BSDE01BCN1 BNGA01SB APLN02 BNGA01BCN1 SSIA01B PNBN04SB SISSMM01 SIAGII02 ADHI01ACN2 SIAISA01 AISA01 APLN01CN1 BCAP01CN1 PTPNX01 PPGD10BXBVTW ANTM01ACN1 BEXI01CCN1 PNBN01SBCN1 BNGA02SB

Maturity 16-Dec-16 23-Dec-16 21-Feb-17 25-Apr-17 5-Jun-17 14-Jun-17 4-Jul-17 8-Jul-17 15-Aug-17 30-Oct-17 6-Nov-17 9-Nov-17 30-Nov-17 18-Dec-17 15-Mar-18 5-Apr-18 5-Apr-18 27-Jun-18 5-Jul-18 5-Jul-18 11-Jul-18 14-Dec-18 20-Dec-18 20-Dec-19 23-Dec-20

Coupon 9.00 8.30 8.60 7.55 9.75 7.60 9.25 11.30 9.38 7.75 9.30 10.50 9.60 9.90 8.10 10.25 10.25 9.25 12.00 8.90 10.50 8.38 8.50 9.40 10.85

Tenor 3.02 3.04 3.20 3.38 3.49 3.51 3.57 3.58 3.68 3.89 3.91 3.91 3.97 4.02 4.26 4.32 4.32 4.55 4.57 4.57 4.59 5.01 5.03 6.03 7.04

Rating idAA+ idAAA idAA+ AA(idn) idAidAA+/AAA(idn) idA+ AA(idn) idA IdAAA/AAA(idn) idA idAA-/A+(idn) idA(sy) A-(idn) idA idA-(sy) idAidA idBBB idA+ idAA+ idAA idAAA idAAAA(idn)

Last Done Price 100.38 96.38 97.02 92.45 97.50 92.82 97.44 104.21 114.00 91.76 113.05 99.90 100.59 88.93 90.00 101.02 100.28 99.88 100.01 92.00 100.33 92.75 94.29 100.08 104.00

Freq 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 1.00

Vol (IDR Bn) 0.50 4.00 1.00 0.12 50.00 60.00 1.30 1.00 99.00 30.00 228.00 0.80 15.00 15.00 0.30 2.00 40.00 50.00 94.00 5.00 2.00 50.00 4.00 6.00 0.80

Yield 8.85 9.68 9.69 10.21 10.61 10.04 10.11 9.89 5.19 10.34 5.57 10.53 9.42 13.50 11.07 9.96 10.17 9.28 12.00 11.15 10.47 10.24 9.95 9.38 10.05

Modified Duration 2.58 2.61 2.76 2.91 2.85 2.98 2.97 2.90 3.16 3.27 3.30 3.16 3.28 3.15 3.45 3.42 3.41 3.62 3.42 3.62 3.56 3.93 3.95 4.49 4.84


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WEEKLY REPORT

RESEARCH TEAM

Debt Research Fax No.

Head of Debt Research Yudistira Slamet [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1709

ext. 3400

Market Analyst Rifki Rizal [email protected]

ext. 3404

Credit Analysts Amir A. Dalimunthe [email protected]

ext. 3405

Production & Database Management Eka Nuraini [email protected]

ext. 3407

Ayesha Ardelia [email protected]

ext. 3406

Melissa Hartono [email protected]

ext. 3402

Debt Capital Market Division

Debt Capital Market Div. Fax No.

Head of Debt Capital Market Budi Susanto [email protected]

Debt Sales & Brokerage Rina Rimawati D [email protected] Agung Suprihanto [email protected]

(62 21) 2955 5777 (62 21) 350 1724 / 25

ext. 3200

62 21) 3501088 ext. 3223

ext. 3212

Putrika Mayadipta [email protected]

ext. 3215

Ariningtyas W. Agustina [email protected]

ext. 3224

Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy [email protected]

ext. 3216

Debt Trading & Investment Romi Mulyadi [email protected]

ext. 3213

Product & Retail Setyo H. Purnomo [email protected]

ext. 3226

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8

BI Rate : Here to Stay

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