Analisis Operasi Rantai Pasokan
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gambaran tentang jejaring dan perencanaan operasi • Metodologi perencanaan • Tahap 1: Difinisi masalah dan perencanaan • Tahap 2: Pengumpulam dan analisis data • Tahap 3: Rekomendasi dan implementasi • Teknik dan analisis rantai pasokan
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Metodoogi perencanaan memberikan kemampuan untuk mengevaluasi sejumlah alternatif untuk menanggapi perilaku pelanggan • Keputusan sering membutuhkan analisisdata yang kompleks dan intensif – Kompleks karena: • Banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi biaya total • Tersedianya sejumlah alternatif solusi
– Intensif karena: • Banyak informasi yang dituhkan untuk mengevaluasi setiap alternatif – Misal: alternatif layanan, alternatif asumsi biaya, alternatif teknologi
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Metodologi perencanaan • Difinisi masalah dan perencanaan • Pengumpulan dan analisis data • Rekomendasi dan implementasi Figure 13.1 Research Process 13-4
Difinisi masalah dan perencanaan menjadi landasan untuk tahap berikutnya Asesmen kelayakan • Analisis situasi saat ini • Pengembangan logika yang mendukung • Estimasi biaya dan manfaat Perencanaan proyek • Penetapan tujuan dari perubahan • Penetapan hambatan dari studi kelayakan • Menentukan standar peengukuran • Memilih teknik analisis • Membuat rencana kerja proyek 13-5
Analsis Situasi Saat ini • Membutuhkan – Mengkaji operasi internal – Asesmen Pasar – Asesmen teknologi • Analisis situasi harus dapat menentukan kapabilitas yang dimiliki saaat ini untuk membantu menentukan potensi perbaikan di masa datang 13-6
Pengembangan logika yang mendukung integrasi temuan dari analisis situasi saat ini • Mengidentifikasi proposisi nilai untuk membenarkan investasi dalam penelitian dan analisis rinci • Evaluasi berdasarkan fakta kritis prosedur dan praktek saat ini – Apa yang sudah baik? – Area mana yang bisa ditingkatkan? • Identifikasi alternatif potensial – Mendefinisikan operasi saat ini – Mengidentifikasi desain alternatif – Menyarankan pendekatan inovatif
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Mengestimasi biaya dan manfaat proyek • Manfaat harus diestimasi dari: – Perbaikan layanan – Pengurangan biaya – Biaya pencegahan
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22
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Expand Site and Enhance Existing Facilities RY – Keep (Dev)
WHS – Upgrade (Prod/Dev)
WP – Upgrade (Test/DR)
WHS – Expand (Prod)
2 global data centers in US RY – Close
WHS – Upgrade (Test/DR)
WP – Close
New site (Prod/Dev)
3 global data centers in US RY – Close
WHS – Upgrade (Test/DR)
WP – Keep (Dev)
New site (Prod)
Risks Risks
High
Risks Risks
Low
Risks Risks
Medium
•• •• •• •• •• •• •• ••
•• ••
•• •• ••
Collocatedwith withtwo twohazardous hazardousmaterial materialsites sites(RY (RYand andWP) WP) Collocated Facilityissues issueswith withRY RY(leaking (leakingroof) roof) Facility RY data center in flight path for Linden/EWR airport RY data center in flight path for Linden/EWR airport Limitedexpansion expansionpossibilities possibilities Limited Highoperational operationalcomplexity complexitydrives drivesdown downservice servicequality quality High Sub-optimalDR DR Sub-optimal Concentratedproximity proximitytotoManhattan Manhattanand andPhiladelphia Philadelphia Concentrated Samepower powergrid gridfor forall allsites sites Same
Disruption,transition transitionand andchange changemanagement management(some (somepeople people Disruption, issues) issues) Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design) Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)
Collocatedwith withone onehazardous hazardousmaterial materialsite site(WP) (WP) Collocated Disruption,transition transitionand andchange changemanagement management(less (lessthan than Disruption, alternative 2) alternative 2) Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design) Network impact (mitigated by deliberate design)
Illustration of sample risks defined for each alternative
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Perencanaan proyek melibatakan beberapa tugas spesifik • Tujuan perubahan yang diusulkan • Kendala untuk lingkup studi • Menetapkan standar pengukuran • Pilih teknik analisis • Buat rencana kerja proyek
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Pernyataan tujuan harus dinyatakan secara spesifik dan terukur • Harus mendefinisikan segmen pasar, kerangka waktu untuk perubahan dan harapan kinerja yang spesifik • Contoh: – Menyediakan 100 pelanggan yang paling menguntungkan dengan kinerja sempurna pada semua pesanan – Semua pelanggan lainnya menerima • Ketersediaan persediaan 99% untuk produk kategori A • Ketersediaan persediaan 95% untuk produk kategori B • 98% pengiriman dari semua pesanan sampai dalam waktu 48 13-10
Standar pengukuran langsung analisis dengan asumsi biaya dan kinerja • Standar harus cukup mencerminkan total kinerja • Daftar asumsi yang mendukung standa • Bagaimana setiap komponen biaya harus diukur?
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Mengembangkan rencana kerja proyek • •
•
Skedul tugas Sumber daya yang dibutuhkan – Tenaga kerja – Pengumpukan dan analisis data – Analisis alat Skedul pertemuan
23 Jun
30 Jun
7 Jul
14 Jul
21 Jul
28 Jul
4 Aug
11 Aug
18 Aug
25 Aug
Data Center Facilities Requirements Project
Sep
Final documents (9 Sep)
Update 1 to ISLT
Update 2 to ISLT (12 Aug)
Final Case (29 Aug)
– Memperbaharu informasi tahapa yang sudah diselesaikan
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Pengumpulan dan Analisis Data Asumsi pengumpulan data • Mendefinisikan pendekatan analisis dan memiilih teknik • Mendefinisikan dan meninjau asumsi • Mengidentifikasi sumber data • Mengumpulkan data • memvalidasi data Analisis • Mengembangkan pertanyaan untuk analisis • Memvalidasi analisis dasar • Menganalisis setiap alternatif • Analisis sensitivitas lengkap
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Mendifinisikan dan mengkaji asumsi • Kondisi bisnis • Manajemen • Analisis
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Identify data sources to fit the analytical technique • What are the sources for
– Sales and customer orders? – Specific customer data that includes a spatial dimension? – Manufacturing and purchasing costs? – Transportation data? – Benchmarking data on competitive capabilities and flow? 13-15
Analysis involves use of technique and data to evaluate logistics alternatives • First, develop questions about alternatives and the range of acceptable uncertainty • Second, validate the technique and model using validation data • Third, repeat the analysis for each alternative to be evaluated • Finally, the best-performing alternatives can be evaluated for sensitivity to other factors or scenarios 13-16
Recommendations and implementation Development of recommendations • Identify best alternative • Estimate costs and benefits • Develop risk appraisal • Develop presentation Implementation • Define implementation plan • Schedule implementation • Define acceptance criteria • Implement
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Recommendations to management are developed through critical review of the analysis results • Identify best alternative • Estimate costs and benefits • Develop risk appraisal • Develop presentation
Preferred Alternatives
High
2 Data Centers Acquire
2 Data Centers - Build
$49MM
$133MM
3 Data Centers Build
3 Data Centers Acquire
$49MM 2 Data Centers – Build
$115MM & Outsource DR
Fit to Principles
$114MM
2 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR
3 Data Centers – Build & Outsource DR Expand & Enhance Existing - Build
$95MM
Low Slow
3 Data Centers – Co-locate & Outsource DR
$91MM
Expand & Enhance Existing – Build & Outsource DR
$76MM
Speed to Execute
Fast
Sample presentation visual showing best alternative
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Implementation is necessary to realize any business benefits from the recommendations • Define implementation plan
– Events, activities and decisions with dependent relationships
• Schedule implementation
– Timeline of plan details – E.g. acquire facilities, negotiate agreements, mobilize teams, and conduct training
• Define acceptance criteria
– How will we measure success?
• Implement the recommendation – Establish controls to monitor plan and acceptance criteria
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Methods and techniques of analysis for supply chain decisions • • • • • •
Design decisions Design logic Inventory decisions Transportation decisions Freight lane analysis Inventory analysis
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Design decisions focus on selecting number and location of plants, warehouses and other nodes •
•
Determine total costs and trade-offs for alternative channel strategies, activity outsourcing or offshoring decisions Typical questions include – Where should plants and distribution centers be located? – Which market areas should be served by each distribution center? – Which product line should be stocked at each warehouse? – What marketing channels should be used to serve international markets? – Which service providers should be used for long-term contracts? 13-21
Design logic defines the method used to select from a number of available options • Optimization models consider a range of complex data to evaluate alternatives – – – – –
Aggregate customer demand Aggregate supply availability Product and information flows at each stage Transportation alternatives and costs Other variable costs
• Major problems with linear programming
– Need explicit functional relationships for full range of design options – Only as valid as the design problem definition – Often limited by number of stages in the supply chain and problem size
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Illustration of scope of typical supply chain analysis
Figure 13.2 Total Cost Analysis Approach 13-23
Data requirements for supply chain analysis include the following key elements • • • • •
• •
Markets defined by geographic segments Products defined by the number of stock keeping units required Network defines channel members and locations including current and proposed Customer demand as shipment volume by market geography Transportation rates for inbound and outbound volume
– For each shipment size – For each potential transportation link
Variable and fixed costs Tax incentives
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Illustration of how the US might be segmented in market areas
Figure 13.3 Supply Chain Network
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Illustration of a network definition for channel of industrial and retail customers
Figure 13.4 Channel Network Example 13-26
Evaluation of alternatives • Baseline analysis is done first to validate cost and establish credibility of the analysis • Other alternatives are modeled and analyzed • Results can be compared to baseline to identify performance improvements
Baseline Model
Alternative Models 13-27
Illustration of baseline network with two plants and two warehouses
Figure 13.5 Base Supply Chain Network 13-28
Illustrates an alternative supply chain with 3 plants and 4 warehouses
Figure 13.6 Alternative Supply Chain Network 13-29
Concerns of supply chain design tools • Treatment of inventory carrying cost • Assumptions of shipment sizes over range of alternatives – Constant or varies with change in number of warehouses
• Focus of analyses – Expanding boundaries of supply chain members – Minimize total cost vs. maximize profit – Periodic vs. ongoing
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Illustration of the analytic inventory concept to make inventory decisions
Results of analysis Figure 13.7 Analytic Inventory Overview 13-31
Illustration of the simulation approach to inventory analysis
Results of analysis Figure 13.8 Inventory Simulation Overview 13-32
Transportation decisions range from strategic to tactical in scope • Strategic routing decisions – Identify long-term fixed transport modes • Monthly or yearly routes
• Tactical routing decisions – Allocate resources for the shortterm • Daily or weekly routes
• Objective is to minimize the combination of vehicles, hours and miles required to deliver product 13-33
Illustration of typical transportation problem
Figure 13.9 Typical Routing or Delivery Problem 13-34
Transportation analysis techniques • Heuristic approaches
– Use rule-of-thumb techniques to sequentially add and delete stops
• Exact approaches
– Use linear programming to identify best routes
• Interactive approaches
– Use simulation, cost calculator or graphics capability to support interactive decision process
• Combination approaches
– Blend of the three approaches is very effective
• Criteria for evaluating approaches – How general is the approach? • E.g. special situations, multiple depots, time windows, vehicle capacities
– How accurate is the approach? • Is it a close approximation of performance characteristics?
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Data requirements for transportation analysis • Network defines all possible routes • Demand data defines periodic customer pickup and delivery requirements • Operating characteristics define – – – –
Number of vehicles Vehicle limitations Driver constraints Operating costs
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