5. Pengambilan Risiko (Risk Taking)
Tujuan Pembelajaran • Menjelaskan konsep resiko • Menjelaskan bagaimana pengambilan resiko dilakukan • Mengidentifikasi resiko-resiko yang potensial terjadi ketika memulai usaha • Menjelaskan pengelolaan resiko
Pengantar
Entrepreneur : BERANI MENGHADAPI RESIKO, CELAAN, PENGEKANGAN, BAHKAN PENGACUHAN
Entrepreneur menurut David McClelland • Memiliki kecenderungan mengambil risiko yg moderat (risiko yang terhitung atau calculated risk). • mempunyai persepsi mengenai kemungkinan mencapai keberhasilan
Landau's classification of entrepreneurial types
Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles
Source: Thomas Monroy and Robert Folger, “A Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles: Beyond Economic Rationality,” Journal of Private Enterprise IX(2) (1993): 71.
The Level Of Entrepreneur Very Risk Manager Risk Taker Risk Manager Medium Risk Taker
Little Risk
Risk Free
0
1
2
3
4
5
Unemployee
Employee
Self Employee
Businessman
Investor
Gambler
(self Business)
(business owner system)
(Speculative)
Entrepreneurship Theory • Entrepreneurs cause entrepreneurship. – Entrepreneurship is a function of the entrepreneur:
E
f (e)
– Entrepreneurship is the interaction of skills related to inner control, planning and goal setting, risk taking, innovation, reality perception, use of feedback, decision making, human relations, and independence.
WHAT IS RISK? The uncertainty of an event occurring that could have an impact on the achievement of objectives. It is also the probability of something you do not want to happen,
happening.
Pengertian Resiko • Definisi Resiko – Ketidakpastian (uncertainty) – Konsekuensi yang memunculkan dampak yang merugikan – Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis – Hubungan antara: Risk - Risiko – Rizki – Rejeki • Sesuatu yang buruk (tidak diinginkan), baik yang sudah diperhitungkan maupun yang belum diperhitungkan, yang merupakan suatu akibat dari suatu tindakan atau kegiatan • Motivasi mengambil resiko – Menginginkan pengembalian yang sepadan (return) • mampu mengkalkulasi risiko – Kepepet • tidak mampu mengkalkulasi risiko, atau • tidak tahu risiko yang dihadapi
EXAMPLES OF RISK
risk of injury to staff and clients
risk of buildings being vandalised
risk of harm to authorised and unauthorised visitors
risk of contracting communicable diseases
risk of theft
EXAMPLES OF RISK
risk of fraud
risk of storm and/or water damage
risk of poorly drafted contracts
risk of adverse publicity
risk of loss of computer data.
risk of assault risk of bad personnel appointments
Jenis-jenis Risiko Dalam Bisnis – Risiko Murni • • • • •
Risiko hilang/rusaknya aset yang dimiliki Risiko Kecelakaan kerja Risiko akibat tuntutan hukum Risiko operasional lainnya Bencana alam (force majure)
– Risiko spekulatif • Risiko Perubahan Harga – Perubahan harga input – Perubahan harga output
• Risiko Kredit
Kriteria Resiko • Resiko Tinggi Keberhasilannya sangat kecil dibanding kegagalannya (sering gagal)
• Resiko Rendah Keberhasilan lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya (sering berhasil)
• Resiko Sedang Keberhasilan relatif lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya
Bentuk Kerugian Akibat Risiko – Kerugian Langsung • Nominal yang harus ditanggung akibat dampak langsung risiko yang terjadi.
– Kerugian Tidak Langsung • • • •
Kemungkinan sales/profit yang gagal diterima Munculnya biaya operasional tambahan Kesempatan investasi yang hilang Kerugian lainnya
The reason people don’t take risks is generally because they are not o.k. with the possibility of failure. We must overcome the fear of losing everything if we expect to gain more. This is not to suggest that we should take foolish risks, but we should never be so fearful that we take no risks. One author has stated that the person who risks, does nothing, has nothing and is nothing.
RISK ASSESSMENT Risk Assessment is the systemic process for assessing and integrating professional judgements about probable adverse conditions and/or events.
THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS C O M M U N I C A T E &
C O N S U L T
ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT
M O N I T O R
IDENTIFY RISKS
ANALYSE RISKS
ASSESS
RISKS EVALUATE RISKS
TREAT RISKS
& R E V I E W
Step 1 : Establish Your Context • scope • organisational • environmental • outputs and business objectives • risk criteria (i.e. threshold levels) • linkage to other plans
Step 6 : Monitor and Review Your Risks • process • environment • organisation • strategy • stakeholders
Accept/Retain • based on judgement or documented procedures/policy Avoid • consider discontinuing or avoiding activity • consult • risk treatment preferable to risk aversion
Step 2 : Identify Your Risks • identify key processes, tasks, activities • recognise risk areas • define risks • categorise risk
Communicate and consult - at all steps
Step 5 : Treat Your Risks
Reduce consequence • contingency planning • contractual arrangements • public relations
The risk management process
Step 3 : Analyse Your Risks • identify controls • determine likelihood • determine consequence/impact • rate risks
Step 4 : Evaluate and Prioritise Your Risks • identify acceptable/unacceptable risks (referring risk rating against risk criteria) • prioritise risks for treatment
Transfer • insurance • outsourcing
Reduce likelihood • controls • process improvement • training • Policies and communication • audit and compliance
Taking a risk: it isn’t all bad Taking risks is a normal unavoidable everyday necessity
Taking controlled, informed risks is a sensible and everyday essential part of life
Taking uninformed, uncontrolled risks is patently dumb
We take risks not to avoid harm, but to achieve benefits and gains
Risk taking is positive, not implicitly negative.
Risk Management is everybody’s business Risk Management is not just the responsibility of management For Risk Management to be effective it must be implemented by every person in the organisation
Risk Management must become an integral part of the organisational culture
The risk makers and risk takers must be the risk managers.
MANAGING RISK We all manage risk consciously or unconsciously - but rarely systematically Managing risk means forward thinking Managing risk means responsible thinking Managing risk means balanced thinking Risk Management provides a framework to facilitate more effective decision making Risk Management is all about maximising opportunity by managing risk.
Where do risks come from? • Risk involves uncertainty about the likelihood of events and the value of their consequences. • Risk arises from interactions between people and their social and physical environment. • Risk depends not only on physical conditions but also on human actions and decisions.
Identification of Sources of Risk personnel/human behaviour management activities and controls economic circumstances natural and unnatural events political circumstances technology/technical issues commercial and legal relationships public/professional/product liability the activity itself.
Risks Categories 1. Strategic Risks a. Environment Risks – Natural and man-made disasters – Political/country – Laws and regulations – Industry – Competitors – Financial Markets
b. Organisation Risks – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Corporate Objectives and Strategies Planning Resource Allocation Monitoring Mergers, acquisitions and divestitures Joint Ventures and alliances Leadership Vision Judgement Succession Planning Tone at the Top Management Accountability Authority Responsibility Corporate Governance Ethics Reputation Values Fraud and illegal acts Human Resources Performance Rewards Benefits Workplace environment Diversity
2. Operating Risks • Workforce – Hiring – Knowledge and skills – Development and training – Size – Safety
• Suppliers – Outsourcing – Procurement practices – Availability, price and quality of suppliers’ products and services
• Physical Plant – Capacity – Technology/obsolescence
• Protection
– Physical plant and other tangible assets – Knowledge and intellectual property
2 Operating Risks (Cont’d) • Products and Services – – – – – – –
Development Quality Pricing Cost Delivery Consumer protection Technology/obsolesence
• Customers – Needs – Satisfaction – Credit
• Regulatory Compliance – – – –
Employment Products and services Environmental ALL relevant Laws
3. Financial Risks • Capital/Financing – Availability – Interest rates – Creditworthiness
• Investing – – – – –
Cash availability Securities Receivables Inventories Derivatives
• Regulatory Compliance – Security – Taxation
4. Information Risks •
Information Risks – – – –
Reliability Sufficiency Protection Technology
•
Strategic Information
•
– Relevance and accuracy of measurements – Availability – Assumptions Operating Information – Relevance and accuracy of measurements – Availability – Regulatory Reporting
•
Financial Information – – – – – –
Relevance and accuracy of measurements Accounting Budgets Taxation Financial Reporting Regulatory Reporting
HOW DO ENTREPRENEURS MAKE PLANS TO MANAGE RISK???? 1. Analyzing current and future economic and market conditions.
2. Considering the consequences of alternative actions 3. Making reasonable decisions in response to conditions as they develop and change.
What to do about the risk • • • •
RISK AVOIDANCE (eliminating the risk) RISK REDUCTION (minimizing the risk) RISK TRANSFER RISK ASSUMPTION
Most entrepreneurs use a combination of methods when controlling and managing risks.
Bagaimana Mengkalkulasi Risiko – Tentukan seberapa sering risiko tersebut terjadi (frekuensi atau probability). – Tentukan dampak yang timul dari risiko yang terjadi (dampak).
– Hitung kemungkinan prediksi kerugian, dengan formula: Frekuensi x Dampak
Contoh – Risiko terjadinya pencurian barang dagangan – Frekuensi: 1 bulan 5 kali – Dampak: Dalam setiap kejadian rata-rata kerugian yang ditanggung adalah Rp 300 ribu – Kemungkinan prediksi kerugian: 5 x 300.000 = 1.500.000 Artinya: Dalam satu bulan terdapat risiko pencurian barang dagangan yg berpotensi menyebabkan kerugian sebesar Rp1,5 juta
Pengelolaan Risiko – Mulai dari Risiko yang memiliki kemungkinan prediksi kerugian terbesar (prinsip Pareto) – Pilihan Strategi Pengelolaan: • Dikontrol, supaya risiko-risiko tidak muncul, misal: SOP, Quality Control. • Ditransfer kepada pihak lain, misal: konsumen, supplier dan asuransi. • Dibiayai sendiri, dibuat cadangan dana untuk membiayai jika risiko terjadi.
Tips & Trik Menghadapi risiko – Perlu difahami bahwa risiko tidak untuk menjadi penghambat untuk maju. Risiko harus diambil sebagai konsekuensi menginginkan sesuatu yang lebih baik (keberhasilan). – Identifikasi risiko apa yang berpotensi muncul dalam bisnis. – Identifikasi seberapa sering risiko tersebut muncul. – Identifikasi seberapa besar dampak dari risiko yang muncul tersebut. – Siapkan langkah-langkah mitigasi risiko hanya pada risiko yang dominan/prioritas.
The greatest risk of all is to take no risk at all!
