Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 10 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 5
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK • Asia: Bursa saham Asia sebagian besar melemah pada hari Senin pasca rilis mengecewakan data pekerjaan AS di akhir pekan lalu dan juga data perdagangan Cina yang lebih buruk dari perkiraan, menambah kegalauan investor perihal kesehatan ekonomi global. Indeks Kospi turun 0,5% dan Shanghai merosot hampir 3% setelah data ekspor dan impor turun lebih rendah dari perkiraan di bulan April. Bursa di Malaysia, Indonesia dan Thailand juga melemah. Namun indeks Nikkei berhasil melawan trend setelah ditutup menguat 0,7% menyusul reli yen telihat terhambat saat ini. • Eropa: Bursa Eropa rebound pada hari Senin setelah terkoreksi selama 2 pekan, didukung oleh naiknya saham di Jerman dan Yunani, dengan bursa Athena naik oleh ekspektasi kemajuan dalam menanggulangi beban utang Yunani. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 naik 0,5% ke 1309,10 meskipun masih mencatat turun 9% sepanjang tahun 2016. Sedangkan bursa saham Inggris masih melanjutkan deprsiasinya, memperluas penurunan mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari, setelah reli pada saham pariwisata gagal mengimbangi tekanan pada saham pertambangan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup turun 0,2% setelah merosot 1,9% pekan lalu, dengan penurunan ini sekaligus catat koreksi 3 pekan berturut-turut. Indeks pertambangan Inggris anjlok 7,9% setelah rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina dan menguatnya dolar. • AS & Global Markets: Yen jatuh terhadap USD pada hari Senin setelah Jepang memberikan sinyal siap untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar valas, sementara koreksi tajam harga minyak telah menekan ekuitas, menyusul ekspektasi bahwa stok minyak AS akan kembali cetak rekor tertinggi. Indeks saham AS ditutup beragam menyusul saham kesehatan mampu mengcounter penurunan 1,2% pada sektor energi S&P. Yield Treasury AS juga merosot setelah investor menurunkan estimasi bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, usai rilis buruk data pekerjaan AS periode April pada Jumat lalu. • Global Economy Weekahead – Rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina kian menambah suram prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS. Untuk itu data retail sales dan survey sentimen konsumen dari University of Michigan AS akan dicermati. Perhatikan juga komentar dari sejumlah petinggi Fed pekan ini, termasuk dari Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City. Sementara sidang BoE (Kamis) diprediksi tidak akan menghasilkan perubahan kebijakan. Pembuat kebijakan BoE kemungkinan akan disibukkan oleh pelaksanaan referendum pada 23 Juni mengenai apakah Inggris harus tetap menjadi anggota Uni Eropa. BoE kemungkinan akan menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi namun menahan proyeksi inflasinya dalam laporan kuartalan. Bank sentral Korea, Thailand dan Filipina juga akan bersidang pekan ini, dan diprediksi tidak ada perubahan kebijakan.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW
.N225
.KS200
.HSI
.DJI
/.SPX
/.SSEC
38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)
295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 249.56 (20/Apr/16)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 21794.84 (04/Jan/16)
18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18167.63 (20/Apr/16)
2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2111.05 (20/Apr/16)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)
14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)
222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
85.25 (06/Jul/50)
58.61 (31/Aug/67)
Closing Prices – 09 Mei 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=
17705.91 2058.69 4750.209 108.31 1174.29
CHANGE
34.72 / 0.20% 1.55 / 0.08% 14.054 / 0.30% 1.21 / 1.13% 5.99 / 0.51%
CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)
16216.03 242.23 20156.81 2832.90860 43.24
CHANGE
109.31/0.68% 1.08/0.44% 46.94/0.23% 80.33900/2.76% 1.42 / 3.18%
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 04 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 5
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE
WIB
CTY
SUN/08-May
N/A N/A N/A 06.50 07.00 08.30 08.30 12.00 21.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A 08.30 08.30 08.30 17.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 22.00 06.00 08.30 08.30 12.00 12.00 21.30 01.00 04.00 04.00 06.50 06.50 N/A 10.00 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 22.45 00.30 N/A 15.30 15.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 21.00 21.00 21.00 21.00 12.30 12.30 12.30
CN CN CN JP JP AU AU JP US CN CN CN CN CN CN CN US US US US JP KR AU AU JP JP US US KR KR JP JP JP KR US US US US US US US KR HK HK US US US US US US US US US US CN CN CN
MON/09-May
TUE/10-May 10~15 May 10~15 May 10~15 May
WED/11-May
THU/12-May
FRI/13-May
SAT/14-May
INDICATORS Exports YY Imports YY Trade Balance USD BoJ Minutes Overtime Pay ANZ Newspaper Job Ads ANZ Internet Job Ads Consumer Confid Index Employment Trends FDI (YTD) M2 Money Supply YY New Yuan Loans Outstanding Loan Growth PPI YY CPI YY CPI MM NFIB Business Optimism Idx JOLTS Job Openings Wholesale Inventories MM Wholesale Sales MM Foreign Reserves Unemployment Rate Housing Finance Invest Housing Finance Coincident Indicator MM Leading Indicator EIA Crude Inventories Federal Budget $ Export Price Growth YY Import Price Growth YY Bank Lending YY Current Account NSA JPY Economy Watchers Poll L-Money Supply Growth Initial Jobless Claims Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. Continued Jobless Claims Import Prices MM Export Prices MM FOMC Rosengren Speaks FOMC George Speaks BoK Base Rate GDP QQ GDP YY PPI Final Demand YY PPI Final Demand MM PPI Core YY PPI Core MM Retail Sales MM Retail Control Business Inventories MM UoM Sentiment Prelim UoM Conditions Prelim UoM Expectations Prelim Urban Investment (ytd) YY Industrial Output YY Retail Sales YY
PER
ACTUAL
Apr Apr Apr
-1.8 -10.9 45.562
-0.1 -5.0 40.00
% % B
11.5 -7.6 29.86
Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Mar Mar Mar Mar w/e Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar Apr Mar W/E W/E W/E Apr Apr
-0.2 -6.2 -0.7 40.8 128.28
N/A N/A N/A 40.8 N/A N/A 13.5 900.0 14.8 -3.8 2.4 -0.2 93.2 5.412 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A -1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 100.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 44.9 N/A 270 N/A 2.120 0.5 0.1
% % % IND IND % % B % % % % IND M % % B % % % IND IND M B % % % B IND % K K M % %
0.4 -11.4 0.4 41.7 127.5 4.50 13.4 1370.0 14.7 -4.3 2.3 -0.4 92.60 5.445 -0.5 -0.2 1262.1 3.8 1.5 4.1 -3.2 -2.0 2.784 -108.0 -4.5 -7.7 2.0 2434.9 45.4 8.3 274 258.00 2.121 0.2 0.0
N/A N/A N/A 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 90.0 106.5 78.1 10.9 6.5 10.5
% % % % % % % % % % IND IND IND % % %
1.50 0.20 1.90 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A 10.7 6.8 10.5
May Q1 Q1 Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Mar May May May Apr Apr Apr
FORECAST
LAST
REV
126.42
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset) RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Selasa 10 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 3 of 5
SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016
• Masih bergerak dalam area symmetrical triangle • Rebound berkembang setelah membentuk double bottom di 15820 • Target uptick di 16900 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
09 May SSIpmM6 09 May SSIamM6 06 May SSIpmM6 06 May SSIamM6 05 May SSIpmM6 05 May SSIamM6 04 May SSIpmM6 04 May SSIamM6 03 May SSIpmM6 03 May SSIamM6
16170 16185 16005 16085 16025 15930 15975 15950 15945 16115
16425 16290 16040 16270 16130 16065 16005 16090 15975 16135
16130 16140 15840 15980 15960 15910 15820 15945 15820 15945
295 150 200 290 170 155 185 145 155 190
16280 16215 16015 16025 16015 15990 15900 15975 15930 16005
--16215 --16025 --15990 --15975 --16005
65 190 10 35 25 15 75 30 75 155
0.40 1.19 0.06 0.22 0.16 0.09 0.47 0.19 0.47 0.96
24345 47044 23028 56265 6664 5778 7836 5873 7819 6312
WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
16425 (09/May)
16130 (09/May)
16425 (09/May)
15820 (03/May)
17740 (22/Apr)
15320 (07/Apr)
18945 (04/Jan)
14770 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
17165
Pivot line (1-H chart)
17120
Pivot line (1-H chart)
16900
Pivot line (1-D chart)
16610
Reaction high on 1-H chart
16130
Reaction low on 1-H chart
15820
Double Bottom
15670
Low 12/Apr/2016
15510
Low 11/Apr/2016
BUY
16250
SELL
----
STOP LOSS
16125 16450
TARGET
16565
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 04 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 5
KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016
• Koreksi sedang uji trendline support di sekitar 242 • Target downtick di 241 • Waspadai RSI di zona oversold (26) (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
09 May 06 May 05 May 04 May 03 May
243.20
243.45 H H 243.90 245.00
242.10 O O 242.30 243.80
1.35 L L 1.60 1.20
242.55 I I 243.35 244.45
242.55 D D 243.35 244.45
0.80 A A 1.10 0.20
0.33 Y Y 0.45 0.08
243.20 245.00
WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
VOLUME 86757
103521 78574
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
243.45 (09/May)
242.10 (09/May)
245.15 (02/May)
242.10 (09/May)
250.30 (20/Apr)
240.00 (08/Apr)
250.30 (20/Apr)
223.10 (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 250.30
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
Triple Top
248.50
Pivot line
246.25
Pivot line
244.00
Pivot line
241.00
Pivot line
240.00
Low 08/Apr/2016 (Bottom)
237.50
Pivot line
234.90
Low 29/Feb/2016
BUY
----
SELL
243.10
STOP LOSS TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
244.20 241.40 240.55
Fundamental & Technical Outlook Rabu 04 Mei 2016
ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 5 of 5
HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016
• Daily trend mulai berubah bearish, namun RSI sudah oversold (24) • Target downtick di 19700 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
09 May 06 May 05 May 04 May 03 May 02 May
20161 20173 20210 20366 20962
20207 20246 20391 20461 20987 H
19968 19887 20195 20274 20502 O
239 359 196 187 485 L
20049 19975 20284 20300 20544 I
20049 19975 20284 20300 20544 D
WEEKLY
MAY
CHANGE
% CHANGE
74 309 16 244 310 A
VOLUME
0.37 1.55 0.08 1.20 1.49 Y
APRIL
114278 121561 106492 117505 118074
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
20207 (09/May)
19968 (09/May)
20987 (03/May)
19887 (06/May)
21664 (21/Apr)
19967 (08/Apr)
21857 (04/Jan)
18217 (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
SUPPORT
RECOMMENDATION
20514
Reaction high on 1-H chart
20391
Reaction high on 1-H chart
20207
High 09/May/2016
20163
Reaction high on 1-H chart
19813
Low 09/Mar/2016 (Reaction low)
19725
Pivot line (1-D chart)
19400
Pivot line (1-D chart)
19287
Low 02/Mar/2016
BUY
----
SELL
20050
STOP LOSS TARGET
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
20175 19800 19700
