WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Fundamental & Technical Outlook Jumat 09 Desember 2016

ASIA STOCK INDEX Twitter: @researchvaf

Page 1 of 6

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK • Asia: Saham Asia mencapai level tertinggi satu bulan pada hari Kamis setelah Wall Street melangkahi tertinggi lainnya, sementara obligasi rally pada perkiraan (ECB) Bank Sentral Eropa akan memperpanjang kampanye stimulus pada pertemuan kebijakannya. Risk appetite mendapat dorongan ekstra ketika Cina melaporkan angka perdagangan optimis dengan ekspor dan impor keduanya melewati perkiraan. Impor sumber daya yang sangat kuat, alasan utama untuk harga komoditas melambung lagi. Pasar sumber daya (heavy) Australia melonjak 1,2 persen, seperti yang terjadi pada indeks MSCI dari saham Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang. Mencapai level puncak untuk Samsung Electronics membantu mengangkat indeks Korea Selatan 1,2 persen. Nikkei Jepang menguat 0,9 persen, mengabaikan revisi ke bawah yang mengecewakan untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal ketiga.

• Eropa: Saham Eropa naik ke tertinggi dalam sebelas bulan pada Kamis, karena keputusan tak terduga Bank Sentral Eropa untuk memotong pembelian aset bulanan yang membantu bank memperpanjang rally-nya. ECB bergerak mendorong memperpanjang tanggal imbal hasil obligasi zona euro yang secara meluas menguat, yang pada gilirannya lebih didorong saham perbankan dengan indeks Bank STOXX 600 Eropa naik 2,3 persen, di area untuk mingguan terbaik dalam lima tahun. Saham Inggris naik secara keseluruhan pada hari Kamis - meskipun tidak sebanyak saham Eropa setelah Bank Sentral Eropa memperpanjang program stimulus - sementara perusahaan outsourcing Kapita jatuh setelah peringatan laba. Indeks blue chip FTSE 100 naik 0,4 persen pada penutupan 6,931.55 poin, mencapai tingkat tertinggi dalam satu bulan, meskipun zona euro blue chips melampaui saham Inggris untuk mengakhiri 1,4 persen lebih tinggi.

• AS & Global Markets: Imbal hasil obligasi AS naik dan euro merosot pada hari Kamis setelah Bank Sentral Eropa mengatakan akan memperpanjang program pembelian obligasi tapi mengejutkan investor dengan menghitung kembali pada berapa banyak itu akan dihabiskan setiap bulannya. Saham Wall Street ditutup lebih tinggi. Euro menunjukkan penurunan persentase terbesar satu hari terhadap dolar sejak Juni setelah ECB mengatakan akan mengurangi program pembelian obligasi menjadi 60 miliar euro sebulan dari 80 miliar, tapi diperpanjang dari bulan April sampai Desember 2017. Presiden ECB Mario Draghi mengatakan itu tidak langsung dari pelonggaran kuantitatif (QE) tapi ini memang tidak sepenuhnya menjamin kembali investor fixed income. Indeks saham S & P 500 naik, dengan dorongan terbesar dari keuangan, yang diikuti oleh sektor bahan baku. Minyak berjangka capai penurunan di level tiga hari di tengah berkembangnya optimisme bahwa produsen non-OPEC mungkin setuju untuk memotong output diikuti perjanjian kartel untuk membatasi produksi.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW RECORD HIGH 2015 HIGH 2016 HIGH 2016 LOW 2015 LOW RECORD LOW

.N225

.KS200

.HSI

.DJI

/.SPX

/.SSEC

38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 18951.12 (04/Jan/16)

295.51 (03/May/11) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 262.10 (07/Sep/16)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18351.36 (19/May/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 19664.97 (08/Dec/16)

2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 2251.69 (08/Dec/16)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16)

14864.01 (24/Jun/16) 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015)

222.92 (20/Jan/16) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 31.96 (16/Jun/98)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 132.93 (23/Nov./82)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

85.25 (06/Jul/50)

58.61 (31/Aug/67)

Closing Prices – 08 December 2016 CLOSE .DJI /.SPX /.IXIC JPY= KRW=

19614.81 2246.19 5417.356 114.01 1157.27

CHANGE 65.19/ 0.33% 4.84 / 0.22% 23.594/ 0.44% 0.26/ 0.22% 13.26 / 1.13%

CLOSE .N225 .KS200 .HSI /.SSEC /CLc1 (Oil)

18765.47 262.00 22861.84 3215.72810 50.96

CHANGE 268.78/1.45% 5.66/2.21% 60.92/0.27% 6.51340/0.20% 1.19 / 2.39%

DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.


ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE

WIB

CTY

Mon/05-Dec

04:00 05:30 07:30 08:45 09:30 10:45 12:00 20:30 21:25 21:45 21:45 22:00 22:00 02:05 07:30 07:30 10:30 20:30 20:30 20:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 N/A 05:30 06:00 06:50 07:30 07:30 08:30 12:00 12:00 22:30 22:30 22:30 N/A N/A N/A 03:00 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 06:50 07:30 07:30 07:30 12:00 20:30 20:30 20:30 06:50 07:30 07:30

KR AU AU CN HK JP JP US US US US US US US AU AU AU US US US US US US US US CN AU JP JP AU AU JP JP JP US US US CN CN CN US JP JP JP JP JP AU AU AU JP US US US JP AU AU

Tue/06-Dec

06 ̴07 Dec Wed/07-Dec

Thu/08-Dec

Fri/09-Dec

INDICATORS

PER

FX Reserves* Nov AIG Services Index Nov ANZ Internet Job Ads Nov Caixin Services PMI Nov Nikkei PMI Nov BOJ Kuroda speaks at Europlace in Tokyo Consumer Confidence Index* Nov Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy and Policy in New York Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago Markit Services PMI Final Nov Markit Composite Final PMI Nov Employment Trends* Nov ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Nov Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economic Outlook In Arizona Current Account Deficit* Q3 Net Exports Contribution Q3 RBA Cash Rate* Dec International Trade MM $ Oct Productivity Revised Q3 Labor Costs Revised Q3 Factory Orders MM Oct Factory Orders Ex Trans MM Oct Durable Goods Orders R MM Oct Durables Ex Transportation R MM Oct Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Oct FX Reserves (Monthly)* Nov AIG Construction Index Nov Reuters Tankan DI Dec Foreign Reserves Nov GDP QQ* Q3 GDP YY* Q3 BOJ Iwata makes a speech in Nagasaki Leading Indicator MM* Oct Coincident Indicator* Oct EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e Exports YY* Nov Imports YY* Nov Trade Balance USD* Nov Consumer Credit Oct Bank Lending YY Nov Current Account NSA JPY* Oct GDP Revised QQ Q3 GDP Rev QQ Annualised* Q3 GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ* Q3 Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Oct Goods/Services Imports* Oct Goods/Services Exports* Oct Economy Watchers Poll* Nov Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e Continuing Jobless Claims w/e Business Survey Index* Q4 Housing Finance* Oct Invest Housing Finance* Oct

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREV.

371.99b 51.1 1.7% 53.1 49.5

N/A N/A N/A 52.7 N/A

375.17b 50.5 1.0% 52.4 48.2

40.9

43.8

42.3

54.6 54.9 129.96 57.2

N/A N/A N/A 55.3

54.7 54.9 129.0 54.8

11.4b -0.2% 1.50% -42.6b 3.1% 0.7% 2.7% 0.8% 4.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3.052t 46.6 16 1219.3b -0.5% 1.8%

13.70b 0.0% 1.50% -41.8b 3.3% 0.3% 2.6% N/A -3.5% N/A N/A 3.091t N/A N/A N/A 0.3% 2.5%

15.54b -0.2% 1.50% -36.4b 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 4.8% 1.0% 0.4% 3121t 45.9 14 1242.8b 0.5% 3.3%

1.0 1.4 -2.389m 2.501m 3.425m 0.1% 6.7% 44.61b 16.02b 2.4% 1719.9b 0.3% 1.3% -0.4% -1541m 2% 1% 52.5 258k 252.5k 2.005m

N/A N/A -1.032m 1.840m 1.948m -5.0% -1.3% N/A 19.00b N/A 1577.2b 0.6% 2.4% 0.2% -800m N/A N/A N/A 258k N/A 2.059m N/A -1.0% N/A

-0.4 0.2 -0.884m 4.957m 2.097m -7.3% -1.4% 49.06b 19.29b 2.4% 1821.0b 0.5% 2.2% 0.0% -1227m -1.0% 2.0% 49.3 268k 251.5k 2.081m 2.9 1.6% 4.6%

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

REV.

128.95

15.9b

-36.2b

0.6%

0.6%

0.8

21.80b

-1272m

2.084m



10 Dec ~15 Dec 10 Dec ~15 Dec 10 Dec ~15 Dec 10 Dec ~20 Dec

08:30 08:30 08:30 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 22:00 N/A N/A N/A N/A

CN CN CN US US US US US CN CN CN CN

CPI YY* CPI MM* PPI YY Wholesale Inventories MM Wholesale Sales MM U. of Mich. Sentiment U. of Mich. Current Conditions U. of Mich. Expectations M2 Money Supply YY Outstanding Loan Growth New Yuan Loans CNY FDI (YTD)

Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Nov Nov Nov Nov

2.2% N/A 2.1% -0.4% 0.5% 94.5 108.5 87.0 11.5% 13.0% 710.0b N/A

2.1% -0.1% 1.2% -0.4% 0.2% 93.8 107.3 85.2 11.6% 13.1% 651.3b 4.20%

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)




SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017 2 Days SSIcm1

27/08/2015 - 30/12/2016 (JAK) Price JPY 18.800

18945 18500

18.400

18200

17900

18.000

• Penguatan masih berlanjut dalam harian • Short-term support di 18500 – 18400 • RSI di zona overbought • Potensi pembukaan gap up

17.600 17.200 16.800 16.400

16200 16.000

15855

Auto

(Research – @her1en)

Value JPY Auto Value JPY Auto 02

16

02

16

03

Q3 2015

17

01

17

04

18

01

Q4 2015

17

02

16

01

19

Q1 2016

03

17

02

16

04

18

01

Q2 2016

17

02

16

04

18

Q3 2016

01

17

01

16

Q4 2016

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

08 Dec SSIpmH7 08 Dec SSIamH7 07 Dec SSIpmZ6 07 Dec SSIamZ6 06 Dec SSIpmZ6 06 Dec SSIamZ6 05 Dec SSIpmZ6 05 Dec SSIamZ6 02 Dec SSIpmZ6 02 Dec SSIamZ6

18715 18590 18510 18440 18420 18445 18260 18300 18340 18450

18865 18755 18665 18500 18475 18490 18565 18375 18410 18475

18640 18560 18490 18410 18350 18320 18240 18225 18245 18310

225 195 175 90 125 170 325 150 165 165

18835 18726 18645 18495 18460 18430 18415 18265 18365 18320

--18730 --18495 --18430 --18265 --18320

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.56 1.50 0.81 0.35 0.16 0.90 0.82 0.30 0.25 0.54

38875 37062 30728 72269 33010 74881 45049 55651 24380 62977

105 276 150 65 30 165 150 55 45 100

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

18665 (07/Dec)

18225 (05/Dec)

18750 (01/Dec)

18225 (05/Dec)

18660 (30/Nov)

16095 (09/Nov)

18945 (04/Jan)

14770 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

19980

Reaction high on 2-D chart

19890

High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

19115

High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

18945

High 04/Jan/2016

18640

Low Dec 08

18555

Pivot line (1-H chart)

18410

Reaction low (1-H chart)

18320


BUY

18820

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

18700 18970

TARGET


19020



KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017 Daily KSH7

12/07/2016 - 15/12/2016 (JAK)

Cndl; KSH7; Trade Price 08/12/2016; 255,65; 258,00; 255,50; 257,50 EMA; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 20 08/12/2016; 251,44 WMA; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 55 08/12/2016; 251,64

260.50

Price KRW

259 258

258 256 254

252.80

• Tunjukkan kenaikan dari pergerakan bullish trend channel. • Resistance berikutnya di 259.65

252 250 248

(Research – @her1en)

246

244 Auto RSI; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 08/12/2016; 78,599

Value KRW Auto

Mom; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 14 08/12/2016; 9,75

18

25

01

Juli 2016

08

Value KRW Auto 16

22

29

05

Agustus 2016

12 19

26

04

10

September 2016

17

24

31

07

Oktober 2016

14

21

28

Nopember 2016

05

12

Des 16

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

08 Dec (KSH7) 07 Dec (KSZ6) 06 Dec 05 Dec 02 Dec 01 Dec

255.65 256.20 254.10 252.20 253.40 254.55

258.00 256.65 256.05 252.95 253.95 255.05

255.50 255.60 254.10 251.45 252.25 253.85

2.50 1.05 1.95 1.50 1.70 1.20

257.50 256.20 255.40 252.70 252.65 254.20

257.50 256.20 255.40 252.70 252.65 254.20

WEEKLY

DECEMBER

CHANGE 4.15 0.80 2.70 0.05 1.55 0.05

% CHANGE

VOLUME

1.64 0.31 1.07 0.02 0.61 0.02

59475 85039 116863 107584 113773 88278

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

258.00 (08/Dec)

251.45 (05/Dec)

258.00 (08/Dec)

251.45 (05/Dec)

257.45 (09/Nov)

246.80 (09/Nov)

262.50 (08/Sep)

223.10 (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

261.10

High 11/Oct/2016

260.50

Reaction high on 1-H chart

259.65

Horizontal resistance

258.00

High 08/Dec/2016

255.50


254.10

Low 06/Dec/2016

251.45

Low 05/Dec/2016

250.80


BUY

257.30

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

256.10

TARGET


258.70 259.30



HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 December 2016 Daily HSIc1

24/08/2016 - 03/01/2017 (JAK)

24374

Price HKD

24100

24.000 23.700

23.400 61,8% 23.250 23.100 50,0% 22.993 Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price 09/12/2016; 22.818; 22.888; 22.774; 22.848 EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20 09/12/2016; 22.731 WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55 09/12/2016; 22.814

22.800

38,2% 22.736

22.500

22360

22.200

22100

21.900

21904

Auto

RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 09/12/2016; 59,938

• Rebound breakout 22800 dan saat ini sedang coba uji lagi area resistance krusial di 23000 • Target uptick di 23250 • Potensi pembukaan gap up (Research – @her1en)

Value HKD Auto

Value HKD Auto

Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14 09/12/2016; 502 29

05

Agust 16

12

19

26

03

September 2016

11

17

24

31

07

Oktober 2016

14

21

28

05

12

Nopember 2016

19

28

DATE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

RANGE

CLOSE

SETTLE

08 Dec 07 Dec 06 Dec 05 Dec 02 Dec 01 Dec 30 Nov (HSIZ6)

23042 22791 22672 22576 22766 22898 22813

23146 22852 22796 22650 22766 23018 22929

22810 22730 22651 22375 22532 22852 22776

336 122 145 275 234 166 153

22827 22794 22705 22580 22575 22894 22822

22827 22794 22705 22580 22575 22893 22822

WEEKLY

03

Desember 2016

DECEMBER

CHANGE

% CHANGE

VOLUME

0.14 0.39 0.55 0.02 1.39 0.32 0.08

88776 69971 81727 106920 90471 92553 90672

33 89 125 5 319 72 18

NOVEMBER

2016

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

HIGH

LOW

23146 (08/Dec)

22375 (05/Dec)

23146 (08/Dec)

22375 (05/Dec)

23286 (01/Nov)

21904 (09/Nov)

24374 (09/Sep)

18217 (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

SUPPORT

RECOMMENDATION

23211

High 02/Nov/2016

23152

High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)

23018

High 01/Dec/2016

22908

Reaction high (1-H chart)

22651


22564


22375

Low 05/Dec/2016

22276

Low 22/Nov/2016

BUY

22870

SELL

----

STOP LOSS

22720

TARGET


23060 23120

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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