Vote Buying in Indonesia: Learning from Survey Data Indikator Politik Indonesia, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia 2013
District (Dapil) Level • Population: all eligible voters in each of district surveyed. • Number of districts surveyed: 39. • Sampel: 400 for each district. • Face-to-face interview. • Quality control: spot-checking, 20% of total sample. • When: September-Oktober 2013.
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Is vote buying acceptable? (%) Survey in 39 Districts, Sep-Okc 2013 As an effort to win the election, a particular candidate or his/her campaign team gives away a certain amount of money or goods to voters in order to have their votes. In your opinion, is this practice acceptable or unacceptable? (%)
80 70 57.9
60 50
41.5
40 30 20 10
0.5
0 Acceptable
Unacceptable
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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[For those who said it is acceptable] If it happens to you, are you going to accept the money/goods?
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
55.7 28.7 10.3
4.3
Take the Take all the Take all the Will not take money/goods money/goods money, and I'll the and give my and give my give my vote money/goods vote to the vote to the to the candidate candidate who candidate of gave the my own choice highest value
1.0 DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Demographic Profile
Base
Acceptable
Unacceptable
DK/DA
59 57
1 0
55 61
1 0
58 57 57 59 58
1 0 0 0 1
GENDER Male Female
50.0 50.0
40 43
RURAL-URBAN Rural Urban
51.4 48.6
44 39
AGE <= 20 21-25 26-40 41-55 > 55
4.5 6.8 38.0 32.9 17.8
42 42 43 41 41 .
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Demographic Profile (cont’d)
Base
Acceptable
Unacceptable
DK/DA
Level of EDUCATION <= Elementary Junior HS Senior HS College
49.7 20.4 22.5 7.3
46 42 36 21
53 57 63 78
1 0 0 0
53 61 71
0 0 0
INCOME (Rp.) < 1 mil 1 - < 2 mil => 2 juta
58.6 25.6 15.8
47 38 29
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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National Survey (March 2013) • • • • •
Population: all eligible voters in Indonesia Sample: 1200 MoE – assuming simple random sampling – 2.9% Face-to-face interview When: March 2013
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If a candidate give you a certain amount of money for your vote, what would you do?
Refuse the money and give my vote to the party of my choice
48.9
Refuse the money and give my vote to the party did not give money or goods
Those who refuse, 54.3%
5.4
Just take the money from one party and give my vote to that party
8.7
Take all the money and give my vote to any of them
8.0 Those who accept, 41.5%
Take all the money and give my vote to the party of my choice
19.5
Take all the money and give my vote to the party that gave the highest price
5.3 4.2
DK/DA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Real experience: Have you ever been offered money or goods and in return you give your vote for the party or candidate who gave the offer? 90
80.3
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
16.8
10
2.9
0 Yes, I have
No, I have not
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Have you ever seen someone else who received some money or goods before the election day?
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
79.1
8.5
12.2 0.2
Yes, a lot of people around here received it
Yes, bot not many
No, I have not seen any
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Party ID: Is there any party that you feel close to?
60
Yes, there DK/DA, 0.2 is, 14.3
51 50 40 30
26 19
20 10
4
0 Very close
Fairly Close
Somewhat close
DK/DA
No, there is not, 85.5 .
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Trend of Party ID 25
21
21 18
20
18
18
17 14
15
14
12
14 10
10 5
Okt'13
Mar'13
Des'12
Okt'12
Jun'12
Mei'12
Feb'12
Des'11
Jul'11
Jun'11
Mei'11
0
Sumber sebelum Maret 2013: Survei LSI dan SMRC .
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does Party ID make a difference? (%) 69
70
63
60 50 40
61
53 43 38
34
31
30 20 10
4
6 0
0
0 Would accept the money Would refuse the money None
Somewhat close
Fairly close
DK/DA Very close
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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0 3.2 4.4 2.5
Cultural-based organization
9.7
Cooperation (?)
25
"Arisan" (Raffle?)
6.2
Village-based youth Organizations
Political Parties
10
Labor Unions, Peasant Organizations
5.9
Sport Club
6.2
Youth Organizations
Adat Organization
Church
3.6
Other Islamic Organization
5
Muhammadiyah
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU)
Social Organization Membership (%)
22.7
20.3
20
15
9.6
5.7 3.1
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does social organization membership make a difference? (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
55 42
Member
54
41 Non-member 4
Will accept the money
Will refuse the money
5
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Exposure to money politics and organizational membership? (%)
23
25 20 20 15
17 Member Non-member
12
10 5 0 Those who have ever been offered …
Those who have ever seen some else …
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does gender make a difference? (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
54 42
55
41
4 Will accept the money
Will refuse the money
Male
5 DK/DA
Female
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does domicile make a difference? (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
59 50
47 36
3 Will accept the money
Will refuse the money
Rural
5 DK/DA
Urban .
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does age make a difference? (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
61 49 38
43
<= 20 yo 21-25 yo 26-40 yo 41-55 yo > 55 yo
56 54 51 53
39 40
6 6 1 0 3 Will accept the money
Will refuse the money
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does level of education make a difference (%)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
70 60 60 49
47
<= Elementary Junior HS Senior HS College
37 37 23 5
10 0 Will accept the money
Will rerefuse the money
3
3
7
DK/DA
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does level of income make a difference (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
66 47
49
41
56
< 1 million 1 - < 2 million => 2 million
30 4
3
4
Will accept the Will refuse the DK/DA money money Semakin besar pendapatan semakin kecil kecenderungannya menerima pemberian. .
Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Does party make a difference? (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
PKB PDIP
47 46 46 46 43 42 39 39 38 36
48
51
54 51 50
57 57 58
62 61
NASDEM GERINDRA PPP HANURA DEMOKRAT GOLKAR PAN PKS
Will accept the money
Will not accept the money
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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The effects of … on accepting/refusing the money (Logistic regression model) DEPENDENT VARIABLE
Tendency of accepting the money
“Experience”/ exposure to money politics
Gender (male)
0.03
0.05**
Rural-urban (rural)
0.04
0.05**
Level of education
-0.29***
0.06*
Age
-0.10
-0.11***
Party ID
-0.11*
0.05
Organizational membership
-0.14
0.28*
“Experience”
0.18***
***p<.001, **p<.01, *p<.05
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Sikap dan Perilaku Terhadap Politik Uang Bahan Rilis INDIKATOR (Des 2013)
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Thank you
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