Volatilitas pasar finansial dan Pelemahan nilai mata uang: Kegagalan G20 (lagi)? YP Hermawan Peneliti G20, Unpar DISKUSI INFID, 10 September 2015
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Alur paparan: http://www.wsj.com
Fakta Respon G20 Refleksi
FAKTA: Currency Falls
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Jangan khawatir: this is not the first time, and we are not alone!!!
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Yes, it is not the first time indeed!!!
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Negara-negara Asia
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DEVALUASI: Berdampak sistemik
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RESEP MANJUR G20?
3 point dalam komunike Pertemuan Menteri-menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentra 4-5 September 2015, Ankara
“We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our actions, especially against the backdrop of major monetary and other policy decisions, to minimize negative spillovers, mitigate uncertainty and promote transparency” Communique G20 Finance Minisers and Central bank Governors Meeting, 4-5 September 2015, Ankara Turkey.
RESEP MANJUR G20?
3 point dalam komunike Pertemuan Menteri-menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentra 4-5 September 2015, Ankara
“We reiterate our commitment to move towards more marketdetermined exchange rate and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and resist all forms of protectionism.” Communique G20 Finance Minisers and Central bank Governors Meeting, 4-5 September 2015, Ankara Turkey.
RESEP MANJUR G20? Catatan: “ We note that in line with the improving economic outlook, monetary policy tightening is more likely in some advanced economies.”
3 point dalam komunike Pertemuan Menteri-menteri Keuangan dan Gubernur Bank Sentra 4-5 September 2015, Ankara
Communique G20 Finance Minisers and Central bank Governors Meeting, 4-5 September 2015, Ankara Turkey.
RESEP (TIDAK) MANJUR G20? “We reiterate our commitment to move towards more marketdetermined exchange rate and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and resist all forms of protectionism.” Communique G20 Finance Minisers and Central bank Governors Meeting, 4-5 September 2015, Ankara Turkey.
G20 Leaders' Declaration September 6, 2013, St Petersburg 17. We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments. We will refrain from competitive devaluation and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. We will resist all forms of protectionism and keep our markets open.
RESEP (TIDAK) MANJUR G20? Moving toward more market-determined exchange rate systems, enhancing exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying economic fundamentals, and refraining from competitive devaluation of currencies.
“We reiterate our commitment to move towards more market-determined exchange rate and exchange rate flexibility to reflect underlying fundamentals, and avoid persistent exchange rate misalignments. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and resist all forms of protectionism.” Communique G20 Finance Minisers and Central bank Governors Meeting, 4-5 September 2015, Ankara Turkey.
Simpulan awal kita tentang Solusi G20? Apa yang disepakati di Turki, bukan kesepakatan baru sama sekali. Solusi-nya copy paste atau modifikasi kata-kata dari KTT atau KTM sebelumnya Negara-negara mengulang kesalahan yang sama? Keras Kepala? Atau tidak punya pilihan lain? Atau barangkali kita yang keliru menilai peran G20?
REFLEKSI FUNGSI KOORDINASI
HIGH EXPECTATION
PERFORMA RIIL
REFLEKSI
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REFLEKSI
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REFLEKSI
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REFLEKSI
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G20 melihat jatuhnya mata uang Devaluasi tidak terhindarkan karena China dalam kondisi ekonomi yang sulit “At present, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar is stabilising, the correction in the stock market is already mostly over and the financial markets show hope for stabilising.”
“China received broad international support for its economic policy and changes to its currency peg on Saturday, with finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s leading economies accepting Beijing was managing a difficult economic transition. The Chinese authorities managed to convince most leading finance ministers and central bankers that its devaluation and new currency management arrangements were a step on the road to a more market-determined exchange rate.” (Financial Time, 5 September 2015).
Christine Lagarde: “there had been a very open dialogue with China over its economy and policies and she thought it “extremely comforting to have that level of understanding”.
G20 melihat (sumber) jatuhnya mata uang
“The U.S. Federal Reserve should not rush its decision to raise interest rates and should move only when it is sure the decision is unlikely to be reversed later” Christine Lagarde Finance ministers from the world's 20 biggest economies agreed yesterday that keeping interest rates at their current low levels won't be enough to prevent a global economic slowdown. (
“We note that in line with the improving economic outlook, monetary policy tightening is more likely in some advanced economies.”
FM and CB Governors Meeting Communique, 4-5 Sept 015
http://www.cityam.com/223678/g20-finance-ministers-say-low-interest-rates-not-enough-combatglobal-economic-slowdown)
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G20 melihat jatuhnya mata uang
http://bisnis.tempo.co/read/news/2015/08/27/087695318/rupiah-terus-melemah-begini-sikapagus-martowardojo
Paket Kebijakan 1 September 3 paket ekonomi 1 September
5 kebijakan BI
Mendorong Daya Saing Industri Nasional
Memperkuat Pengedalian Inflasi dan Mendorong Sektor Riil dari sisi Suplai Perekonomian
Mempercepat proyek Strategis Nasional
BI Menjaga Stabilisasi Nilai Tukar Rupiah BI Memperkuat pengelolaan Likuiditas Rupiah
Meningkatkan investasi Sektor Properti
Memperkuat pengelolaan Supply and Demand Valas Langkah-langkah lanjutan untuk Pendalaman Pasar Uang
Kontribusi Indonesia untuk G20 Posisi Indonesia di bawah Jokowi: - G20 Penting “Titik berat peningkatan peran Indonesia di G20 adalah untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang tinggi dan berkualitas, dengan tetap memperhatikan kestabilan ekonomi dan keuangan yang dipandang sebagai fondasi efektif bagi implementasi strategi pertumbuhan tersebut” (RPJMN 2015-2019) - Middle-power diplomacy – peran global - Mewujudkan kepentingan nasional (Nawacita) Cetak Biru Peran Indonesia di G20 Pidato Presiden Joko Widodo di KTT G20 Brisbane, Nopember 2014 http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/07/us-welfare-in-one-cartoon.jpg
SIMPULAN - REFLEKSI
FUNGSI KOORDINASI
Potensi G20: Penguasaan dalam Perdagangan, pasar, GDP, jumlah penduduk
HIGH EXPECTATION, LOW ACHIEVEMENT
G20 memang belum efektif, TETAPI TARUHANNYA LEBIH BESAR KALAU TIDAK ADA G20
Hakikat G20
Tantangan G20: Vulnerabilitas dalam Sistem (ekonomi) global; Kepentingan nasional tetap menjadi taruhan besar
Nuhun • Terimakasih
