Talking ASEAN on The RCEP and TPP 24 February 2014 Transpacific Partnership Indonesia – ASEAN by Prof. Dr. Firmanzah
TRANS PASIFIC PARTENRSHIP INDONESIA – ASEAN
Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD Discussion-Habibie Center 24th February 2015
Objectives of TPP • To continue the trade and investment liberalization being undertaken by for example WTO • To develop transparent and predictable rules and disciplines with adequate recourse in the event of any disputes • To develop a more transparent and inclusive regulatory environment
Trans-Pacific Partnership Progress 2012
Existing FTA among TPP countries
TPP-> Japan, USA, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, New Zealand, Australia, Malaysia, Brunei, Singapore & Vietnam All of TPP partners are APEC members, 4 members are from ASEAN
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement *Trans Pacific Partnership* • Traditional Areas: – Market Access, Technical Barriers to Trade, Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures, Rules of Origin, Customs Cooperation, Investment, Services, legal and Instututional.
• New FTA Issues: – Government Procurement, Competition Policy, Intellectual Property, Labour and Environment.
TPP Challenges • Economic Integration • Domestic economic benefit and The domestic economic readiness • On-Going Regional Agreement – Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (RCEP): ASEAN with Australia, China, India, Japan, south Korea, New Zealand – Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with South Korea to boost two-way trade to US $ 100 billion by 2020
• The existing Free Trade Agreement? (e.g., AFTA, AEC 2015, Indonesia-Japan Agreement) • Government De-Regulation (What kind of De-Regulation and Is it a priority?) • Domestic political issues regarding Free-Trade agreement
Why Malaysia Join TPP? (Is is the case of Indonesia?) • To expand market access opportunities and build investors confidence. Currently, Malaysian products are globally standard and Malaysian companies are being global investors. • To be global basis production for both domestic and MNC to supply TPP countries market. • To build more structured cooperation with US, Canada, Mexico and Peru. • Access greater market: 793 million people (TPP) > 29.5 million Malaysian people and US$ 27.5 trillion GDP > US$ 300 billion Malaysian GDP
Indonesia
Keterhubungan ekonomi global
NAFTA Population: 445 million GDP: US$15.857 trillion
Main Regional FTAs EU Population: 491 million GDP: US$ 14.38 trillion
CHINA Population: 1.330 billion GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 trillion
FTA Canada – Chile 1997 FTA : Chile – Mexico 1999 FTA : USA – Chile 2004 FTA : USA – Singapore 2004 FTA : USA – Australia 2005 FTA : Mexico – Japan 2005 FTA : Chile – Brunei – NZ – Singapore 2006
JAPAN Population: 127 million GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 trillion
Japan-Korea-China FTA (under negotiation)
Japan-Korea FTA (under negotiation)
EU 25 countries
Japan-Mexico EPA NAFTA U.S.A., Canada, Mexico
EU-MEXICO FTA
expanding to Latin America
JapanMexico EPA
(signed agreement)
expanding to Eastern Europe
ACP-EU
ASEAN-Japan
Countries in Africa and the Caribbean (approx. 70 countries)
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP)
under negotiation
SAPTA Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
(signed agreement)
FTAA
AFTA
(by 2005)
MERCOSUR Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia
India - ASEAN FTA
China - ASEAN FTA
Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA Korea - ASEAN FTA
Japan’s Bilaterals: • Japan-Singapore EPA • Japan-Philippines EPA • Japan-Thailand EPA • Japan-Malaysia EPA • Japan-Indonesia EPA
ASEAN Population: 608 million GDP: US$ 3.431 billion
ASIA - ASEAN semakin strategis
PROFIL ASEAN •
Disparitas size ekonomi, sejarah, posisi geografis, struktur demografi, tingkat pendidikan, struktur politik akan berdampak pada variasi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal pada masing-masing negara di ASEAN.
•
Ukuran ekonomi ASEAN 2011 sebesar U$ 3,3 triliun dimana Indonesia dengan porsi sebesar 40% (PDB terbesar Indonesia US$ 854 miliar dan PDB terkecil Laos sekitar US$ 8,3 miliar).
•
Begitu juga jumlah penduduk ASEAN sebesar 608 juta jiwa dimana 39% diantaranya berada di Indonesia.
Indonesia Update Population 2014
60-65% productive age (15-60)
257,5 million
Global Competitiveness Ranking 2014 (2010 )
34 (54)
GDP 2014
10.547,2 trillion IDR
GDP per capita 2014
41,81 million IDR
GDP Growth 2014
GDP Growth by sector GDP Structure by sector GDP Structure by expenditure
5,02%
Transortation & Communication (9,8 %) Trade, hotels & restaurant (8,1 %)
Construction (7,5 %)
Financial real estate (7,15%)
Services (5,24 %)
Transortation & Communication (6,6 %) Trade, hotels & restaurant (13,90%)
Construction (10,45 %) Services (10,78%)
Private Consumption Expenditure (54,56 %) Government Consumption Expend. (8,890%)
Foreign reserves – February 2015 Poverty rate - September 2015
Agriculture (3,97%)
Electricity, gas (6,4%)
Manufacture (5,73%) Mining (1,49%)
Financial real estate (7,26%) Electricity, gas (0,79%)
Manufacture (23,94%) Mining (11,78%)
Agriculture (14,44%)
Gross Domestic Fixed Capt. Formation (33,16%) Export Import (24,26 %) (25,81 %)
Statistics Discrepantion (2,79%) Change in stock (2,16%)
US $ 114,2 billion 10,96 % (27,73 million)
Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia-ASEAN • Tahun 2012 (dlm USD Milliar)
31.25
Ekspor nonmigas
62.96
31.71
Impor nonmigas
Total
Tahun 2012 defisit perdagangan nonmigas USD 0.46 milliar, Sementara di 2011 neraca perdagangan Indonesia-ASEAN masih surplus 3,5 miliar dollar AS.
• Homogenitas produk di kawasan ASEAN merupakan salah satu alasan selain tekanan global. • Impor Indonesia dari ASEAN juga meningkat terkait barang modal dan bahan baku seperti suku cadang dari Thailand, juga barang konsumsi seperti gula dan minyak goreng dari Malysia.
The archipelago economy: Unleashing Indonesia’s potential
McKinsey Global Institute,2012
The growing of middle class…….
Kinerja Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia (defisit transakksi berjalan terjadi sejak Q4-2011 s/d sekarang) KETERANGAN I. Transaksi Berjalan A. Barang B. Jasa - jasa C. Pendapatan Primer D. Pendapatan Sekunder II. Transaksi Modal - Penerimaan - Pembayaran III. Transaksi Finansial ² - Aset - Kewajiban 1. Investasi Langsung 2. Investasi Portofolio 3. Derivatif Finansial 4. Investasi Lainnya IV. Total (I + II + III) V. Selisih Perhitungan Bersih VI. Neraca Keseluruhan (IV + V) - Posisi Cadangan Devisa - Transaksi Berjalan (% PDB)
Bank Indonesia
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
5,144.29 31,002.66 -9,790.51 -20,698.16 4,630.30 49.85 49.85 26,476.13 -7,294.22 33,770.35 11,106.33 13,201.98 -94.39 2,262.20 31,670.26 -1,327.16 30,343.10 96,206.83 0.72
1,685.08 33,825.00 -9,803.27 -26,547.17 4,210.51 32.89 32.89 13,603.33 -16,453.46 30,056.80 11,528.39 3,806.37 69.35 -1,800.78 15,321.30 -3,464.68 11,856.61 110,123.00 0.20
-24,418.12 8,679.52 -10,564.20 -26,627.83 4,094.38 50.57 50.57 24,858.06 -17,971.27 42,829.33 13,716.23 9,206.43 12.99 1,922.42 490.50 -275.38 215.12 112,781.03 -2.78
-29,114.92 5,833.23 -12,071.65 -27,054.65 4,178.15 45.29 45.29 21,964.42 -15,467.05 37,431.47 12,295.44 10,874.79 -334.36 -871.45 -7,105.20 -219.52 -7,324.73 99,386.71 -3.18
-26,232.53 6,902.19 -10,532.43 -27,821.90 5,219.62 26.57 26.57 43,559.18 -12,038.82 55,598.00 15,265.65 25,801.87 -213.29 2,704.95 17,353.22 -2,104.63 15,248.59 111,861.60 -2.95
Jaringan Pemasar sekaligus sebagai intelijen pasar ITPC (19 kota) dan ATDAG (24 negara)
Orientasi Ekspor Barang Bernilai tambah tinggi Mendorong Produk-Produk Industri
Perluasan pasar khususnya non tradisional (selain penetrasi pada pasar tradisional)
Amerika latin
Afrika Selatan
Sinkronisasi rantai pasokan-produksi-distribusi (orientasi pada efisiensi)
ekspor
Kebutuhan domestik
Transportasi Infrastruktur Birokrasi
Mendorong Tenaga kerja terlatih (skillful labor) SMK, BLK, Sarjana
Optimalisasi UU Minerba
Sinergi Industri Besar dan UMKM
Terima Kasih Prof. Firmanzah.,PhD