ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010
Faisal Basri 15 November 2009
Bagian I Perkembangan Ekonomi Dunia Terkini
Summary ¾ Perekonomian dunia sudah menunjukkan recovery, eco e y, lebih eb cepa cepat da dari pe perkiraan aa sebelumnya, kecuali AS yang masih rentan. ¾ Tulang punggung pemulihan adalah Emerging M k t EM) Markets EM), khususnya kh EM EM-Asia, A i lebih l bih khusus kh lagi Asia Timur. Bahkan kawasan ini pulih sangat cepat dan mendahului negara negara-negara negara maju (fenomena baru). ¾ Perlu diwaspadai: p • Tekanan inflasi • Volatilitas nilai tukar. • Kenaikan K ik hharga-harga h komoditi, k diti tterutama t minyak, i k karena kenaikan real demand
The world economy is facing a deep downturn in 2009 In the most severe recession since WW II, the global economy is projected to shrink by 1.1 percent in 2009, with slow (sluggish) recovery next year. Description
Jul 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
Jul 09
Oct 09
World GDP growth, %
3.9
3.0
2.2
0.5
-0.8
-1.3
-1.4
-1.1
-United States
0.8
0.1
-0.7
-1.6
-2.6
-2.8
-2.6
-2.7
-Euro Area
1.2
0.2
-0.5
-2.0
-3.2
-4.2
-4.8
-4.2
-Japan
1.5
0.5
-0.2
-2.6
-5.8
-6.2
-6.0
-5.4
-Developing economies
6.7
6.1
5.1
3.3
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.7
-China
9.8
9.3
8.5
6.7
-
6.5
7.5
8.5
-Asean-5
5.6
5.5
4.5
2.7
-
0.0
-0.3
0.7
6.0
4.1
2.0
-2.8
-
-11.0
-12.2
-11.9
World trade growth, %
Not available. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, various issues.
It’s been a lousy year for forecasters all over the world.)
Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) December 2009 5:14 p.m. EDT
US$76.54 =
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 j by y annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 $ Adjusted Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 •
Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.
Oil prices and stock market = 10,270.47
Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html
Euro Zone: green shoots The two largest economies of the 16-country euro zone, Germany and France, grew in the second quarter after falling a g for o four ou quarters. qua e s
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/14euro_graphic_ready.html
Business confidence is surging across EU and BRIC –FT, 10 August 2009, p.1 ¾ Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead. ¾O Optimism ti i about b t production d ti ttrends d iis bbackk att llevels l seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010. ¾ Th The so-called ll d “B “Bric” i ” countries t i – Brazil, B il R Russia, i India I di and China – have also seen a strong rebound in man fact ring confidence manufacturing confidence, ..
Emerging Asia: an an astonishing rebound The four emerging Asian economies which have reported GDP figures for the second quarter (China, (China Indonesia, Indonesia South Korea and Singapore) grew by an average annualised rate of more th 10%. than 10% Source: From The Economist print edition, Aug 13th 2009.
Hong Kong joins Asia Asia’ss rapid climb out of recession. recession Hong Kong’s economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 3.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter, more than analysts had expected, t d adding ddi to t evidence id that th t the th recovery was solidifying lidif i in i much of Asia, according to data published Friday. China, Singapore and South Korea have reported rebounds d i the during h April-to-June A il J period. i d Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15asiaecon.html?ref=global-business.
Change in value of exports (year(year-over over--year)
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/08/14/business/20090815_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html
U.S.: The case for optimism Why It's Smart To Be Optimistic
Sure, it has been a harrowing storm. And now is no time to discount the dangers that still exist. But opening your mind to optimism can help you seize the opportunities t iti ahead h d ....
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/toc/09_34/B4144optimism.htm?chan=magazine+channel_top+stories
U.S. economic contraction slowed in quarter
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/01/business/economy/01econ.html?_r=1&th&emc=th
Deepening the pain: job losses pile up Job losses since the recession began in December 2007. Unemployment rateshot up to 10.2% in October 2009, a 26-year high. 0 ‐1000 ‐2000 ‐3000 ‐4000 ‐5000 ‐6000
Cumulative (000)
‐7000
Montly job losses (000)
‐8000 8000 J
F
M
Source: U.S. Labor Department.
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
U.S. consumer confidence index Indeks kepercayaan k konsumen adalah d l h salah l h satu leading economic indicator bagi perekonomian. k i Setelah S t l h mengalami penurunan pada bulan Juni dan J li consumer Juli, Confidence Index naik tajam pada bulan A t menjadi Agustus j di 54 54.11 dari 47.4 sebulan sebelumnya. Source: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm
Bagian II Perekonomian k Indonesia
Summary ¾ Perekonomian Indonesia ternyata bisa bertahan dari deraan krisis global dengan pertumbuhan masih di atas 4 persen. ¾ Kekuatan utama adalah pasar domestik yang cukup besar. ¾ Pertumbuhan belum berkualitas, berkualitas sektor tradable masih merana. ¾ Perlu pembenahan kebijakan moneter dan kebijakan fiskal. ¾ Peluang terbuka lebar bagi FDI untuk imbangi modal jangka pendek.
The transmission of stress
Sources: IMF, April 2009.
Sumber daya tahan ¾ Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS. ¾ Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan beberapa terbaik. ¾ Current account masih surplus. ¾ Peranan ekspor di dalam PDB relatif kecil. ¾ Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS AS, Eropa Eropa, dan Jepang sudah menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean. ¾ Ruang gerak untuk stimulus fiskal cukup leluasa. ¾ Harga minyak sempat turun ke level di bawah $50 $ per barrel. ¾ Ketahanan pangan terjaga (a.l: komponen makanan dalam CPI mengalami g deflasi berturut-turut dalam 4 bulan terakhir). ) ¾ Bonus: situasi politik yang memburuk di Thailand dan kurang kondusif di Malaysia; dan daya saing meningkat tajam.
East Asia entered the current crisis better prepared than it did the 1997 crisis (in percent of GDP unless indicated otherwise)
Source: The World Bank, East Asia Pacific Update, East Asia: Navigating the Perfect Storm, December 2008.
Countries more dependent on exports will likely be more vulnerable to the slowdown
Source: Asian Development Bank, The AsiIa Economic Monitor (AEM), July 2009, p. 5.
Direction of trade: Asean and Indonesia Ingat: Peran Singapura !!! From
Asean
Indonesia
2000
2007
2000
2007
37,4
41,2
33,1
37,1
China
3,7
8,9
4,2
8,1
Japan
12,6
9,4
22,1
18,1
United States United States
18 2 18,2
12 2 12,2
13 0 13,0
94 9,4
European Union
14,4
11,1
13,7
10,0
Others
13,7
17,2
13,7
17,3
To Developing Asia
Sources: ADB, March 2009
Ruang gerak stimulus fiskal WSJ, March 21, 2009
Stimulus Dilemma for China Spending p g on Public Works Risks Making Production Glut Worse http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759537916001075.html
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Singapura tahun 2009 terjun bebas. bebas Pemerintah “pasrah pasrah.” Stimulus jangka pendek sangat terbatas, karena hampir tak ada ruang gerak untuk pembenahan b h iinfrastruktur f t kt fisik. fi ik Segalanya S l sudah tersedia dengan kualitas prima.
The World competitiveness scoreboard Country USA Singapore Hong Kong Switzerland Australia China Taiwan Malaysia India K Korea Thailand Philippines Indonesia Venezuela
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 4 10 9 7 27 17 21 42 32 28 41 49 51
1 2 6 14 4 22 12 16 30 31 26 43 49 51
1 3 2 8 9 29 11 26 33 27 25 40 50 51
1 3 2 8 6 18 17 22 27 32 29 42 52 53
1 2 3 6 12 15 18 23 27 29 33 45 54 55
Source: International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2009.
1 2 3 4 7 17 13 19 29 31 27 40 51 55
1 3 2 4 7 20 23 18 30 27 26 43 42 57
Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, %
14.6
percentt
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2002 2003 0
18.4
Source: BPS.
46 4.6
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2.6
BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 90 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0
Source: Bank Indonesia.
BI rate turun tapi SBI naik terus Rp Trn
persen
300
12
280 11
260 240
10
220 200
9
180 8
160 140
7
120 100
6 2007
2008 SBI Outstanding (sumbu kiri) SBI 1-bulan (sumbu kanan)
2009 BI Rate (sumbu kanan)
Pertumbuhan suplai uang relatif rendah YoY% 50
40
30
20
10
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
-10
M2 -20
M1
M0
2009
Belanja pemerintah masih seret Rp Trn
percent
250
14 Rekening Pem erintah di BI Inter Bank Rate
200
12
BI Rate
10 150
8 6
100
4 50 2 0
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
8,500 23-Oct
Jul-28
May-04
Feb-05
6-Nov
8-Aug
16-May
20-Feb
16-Nov
20-Aug
28-May
1-Mar
6-Dec
7-Sep
14-Jun
17-Mar
23-Dec
27-Sep
Jul-05
11-Apr
12-Jan
15-Oct
22-Jul
8-Apr
Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$)
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500 Source: Bank Indonesia
W 1J W a 2F W e 3M W a 4A W p 1Jn W 2W Jl 3 W -Ag 4S W ep 1N W ov 2D W ec 3J W an 4F W eb 1A W pr 2M W ay 3Ju W n 4W Jul 1S W ep 2O W ct 3N W ov 4D W ec 2A 31 pr -A u 31 g -J 29 an -J 31 un -A ug 5O 15 c t -N 19 ov -D e 31 c -J a 6- n M a 15 r -A 23 pr -M 30 ay -J u 7- n A 15 ug -S e 24 p -O Fe ct b2 Ju 7 l- 3 1
Foreign reserves increased more than $7 bil bil.. (US$ million)
65000.00
SBY era
60000.00
55000.00
50000.00
45000 00 45000.00
40000.00
35000.00
30000.00
Source: Bank Indonesia.
JSX index recovered significantly Business Week, Week 14-21 Maret 2007 2007, hal.18. hal 18
Balance of payments (US$ million) 2008 Q3‐08 Q4‐08 Q1‐09 Q2‐09 H1‐09 I. CURRENT ACCOUNT
285
‐891
‐684
2,885
3,104
5,989
22 916 22,916
5 771 5,771
4 166 4,166
6 969 6,969
8 705 8,705
15 674 15,674
1. Exports, f.o.b.
139,606
38,081
29,768
24,205
27,509
51,714
2. Imports, f.o.b.
‐116,690
‐32,309
‐25,603
‐17,236
‐18,805
36,041
B S i B. Services, net
‐12,745 12 745
‐3,195 3 195
‐3,288 3 288
‐2,535 2 535
‐3,097 3 097
‐5,632 5 632
C. Income, net
‐15,271
‐4,803
‐2,879
‐2,672
‐3,714
6,386
5,385
1,336
1,317
1,122
1,210
2,332
‐1,354
904
‐3,340
1,750
‐2,414
‐664
294
187
29
19
29
48
‐1,648
717
‐3,368
1,731
‐2,443
‐712
1. Direct investment
2,799
404
2,061
1,660
9
1,669
2. Portfolio investment
1,721
‐74
‐ 4,377
1,859
2,003
3,862
3. Other investment
‐6,167
387
‐1,052
‐1,788
‐4,455
‐6,243
III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS
‐876
‐103
‐188
‐680
362
‐318
1,945
89
4,212
‐3,955
‐1,052
‐5,007
A G d A. Goods, net (Trade Balance) t (T d B l )
D. Current Transfers, net II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. Capital Account B. Financial Account
IV. RESERVES &RELATED ITEMS Source: Bank Indonesia.
The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006 FDI flows to GFCF Country Venezuela Bangladesh Sri Lanka Indonesia China India Argentina Taiwan Brazil Vietnam Philippines Thailand Peru Bolivia Malaysia Pakistan Ecuador Chile Cambodia Singapore Asia South America
FDI stocks to GDP
Percent -2.1 3.9 6.2 6.4 8.0 8.7 9.6 10.3 10.5 12.5 14.1 16.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 24.1 24.8 28.3 38.9 79.5 12.9 13.1
Country Indonesia India Bangladesh Sri Lanka China Pakistan Taiwan Philippines Peru Brazil Venezuela Argentina Thailand Malaysia Ecuador Cambodia Bolivia Vietnam Chile S Singapore Asia South America
Percent 5.2 5.7 6.3 10.9 11.1 11.4 14.2 14.6 20.7 20.8 25.0 27.4 33.0 36.0 39.9 41.6 44.6 54.8 55.4 1 90 159.0 24.9 26.0
Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.
Indonesia’s post post--crisis journey 4 4.0 4.2
5
5.2
7
6.4
6.6
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
3 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -9
Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky”
-11 -13
Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration
-15 -17 -19
SBY: Throws away Momentum and then made Momentum, correction
-21 21
Crisis peak
Source: BPS.
Low quality — Sectoral growth rate (2000 base year year, yearyear-on on--year growth rate rate, %) 2007
2008 Q1-09 Q2-09 H1-09
H1-Share
39 3.9
34 3.4
26 2.6
1 93 1.93
23 2.3
48 4 48.4
Agriculture
3.4
4.8
5.2
2.4
3.7
14.0
Quarrying y g Miningg & Q
2.0
0.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
8.2
Manufacturing
4.7
3.7
1.5
1.5
1.5
26.2
8.8
8.7
6.1
6.2
6.0
51.7
10.3
10.9
11.4
15.4
13.4
0.8
Construction
8.6
7.3
6.3
6.4
6.3
6.3
Trade, Hotel & Rest.
8.4
7.2
0.5
-0.1 0.1
0.2
16.6
Transport & Comm.
14.0
16.7
17.1
17.5
17.3
8.7
Finance
8.0
8.2
6.3
5.3
5.8
9.7
Services
6.6
6.4
6.8
7.4
7.1
9.6
6.3
6.1
4.4
4.0
4.2
100.0
T d bl Tradable
Non-Tradable Electricity, Gas & Water
GDP Source: BPS.
Low quality growth, 2000 2000--200 2009* 9* (%) 10
Non-tradable 8 6
GDP 4
Tradable
2 0 2000 * January-June. Source: BPS.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GDP growth by expenditure (y(y-o-y, %) 2009 Description
2006 2007 2008
Q1
Q2
H1 H1‐Share
6,0 ,
4,8 ,
5,4 ,
57,1 ,
17,0
18,0
7,1
Private consumption p
3,2 ,
5,0 ,
Government consumption
9,6
3,9
10,4 19,2
Fixed investment Fixed investment
2,6
9,4
11,7
3,4
2,7
3,0
23,2
Domestic demand
3,6
6,0
7,4
6,2
5,3
5,8
87,5
Exports
94 9,4
85 8,5
9 5 ‐18 9,5 18,7 7 ‐15 15,7 7 ‐17 17,2 2
23 7 23,7
Imports
8,6
9,0
10,0 ‐26,0 ‐23,9 ‐24,9
20,6
GDP
55 5,5
63 6,3
Source: BPS..
5,3 ,
61 6,1
44 4,4
40 4,0
42 4,2
100 0 100,0
Otomotif dan sepeda motor mulai naik..
Konsumsi semen naik ke level tertinggi
Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: Jan-Sep 2008 = 4,570,492 Jan-Sep 2009 = 4,619,483 700000
2008
Growth: Sep 2009 (m-t-m) = -12.88% Jan-Jul 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.07% 2009
600000
500000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
400000 00000
Sources: BPS
Indeks tendensi konsumen 110
100
90
Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
Indeks tendensi bisnis 120 110 100 90
Q3-09 is prediction. Source: BPS.
Bagian III Liingkungan Politik
Decoupling between politics and economic activities? Jakarta International Java Jazz Festival, held on 6-8 March 2009. The festival's 19 stages featured more than 300 performances. There isn't a jazz festival larger than Java Jazz Festival in this part of the world.
Approximately 1500 delegates from 35 countries attended the 5th World Islamic Economic Forum, i Jakarta, in J k t 11-44 M Marchh 2009 2009. The 42th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank will be held in Bali, 4‐5 May 2009. The Seminar Series and other ancillary meetings will commence from 2 May 2009.
World Ocean Conference, to be held in Manado on May 11-14, 2009.
Major bombings since 2002 Place
Date
Bali I
October 12, 2002
JW Marriot
August 5, 2003
Australian Embassy
September 9, 2004
a II Bali
October 1,, 2005 Octobe 005
Ritz Carlton & JW Marriot
July 17, 2009
The impact of bombings bombings to the economy IDR/US$ index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Sou ce Helmi Source: e Armand, a d, “Indonesia do es a Economic Briefing –Jakarta Blasts: Possible market implication,“17 July 2009.
Indonesia composite index, days after terror attacts 0 = day of bomb blast Source: Helmi Armand, “Indonesia Economic Briefing g –Jakarta Blasts: Possible market implication,” 17 July 2009.
Kecenderungan umum ¾ Dua kali pemilu pascareformasi berlangsung g damai. sangat ¾ Masih ada euphoria demokrasi sejalan dengan proses konsolidasi demokrasi, utamanya penguatan t kkelembagaan. l b ¾ Tidak terjadi kristalisasi kutub-kutub ekstrem, baik ki i maupun kanan kiri k Æ konvergensi k i id ideologi l i atau, t bahkan, non-ideologis. ¾ Praktis P kti ttakk terjadi t j di perubahan b h rezim. i Y Yang sekarang k bercokol adalah pentolan-pentolan Orde Baru: Presiden, Wapres, Ketua DPR, Ketua DPD, Menko Kesra Æ kompromistik.
Penciutan jumlah partai ¾ Jumlah partai di DPR akan menciut dengan pemberlakuan parliamentary threshold 2,5 persen. ¾ Berdasarkan hasil pemilu 2009 hanya ada 9 (sembilan) partai. ¾ Pengelompokan antara partai berkuasa dan partai oposisi akan lebih tegas. tegas ¾ Bisa menghasilkan pemerintahan dan checks & balances yang lebih efektif.
Kian konvergen ¾ Partai “kiri” kiri tak ada yang lolos. ¾ Partai “kiri-tengah” merosot: PDIP ¾ Partai “kanan” melorot tajam (PPP), banyak pula yang tak lolos (PBB, PBR, PDS, PKNU, dll.) ¾ Partai “kanan-tengah” merosot (PKB dan PAN) ¾ Partai tengah menggelembung (PD (PD, Golkar, Golkar Gerindra, Hanura)
Peluang jangan disia-siakan ¾ Tidak membutuhkan proses transisi yang panjang, j kkarena incumbent. i b t p satu pputaran memberikan waktu yyangg ¾ Pilpres cukup leluasa untuk mempersiapkan segalanya g lebih baik. dengan ¾ Tim ekonomi pada KIB-II lebih kredibel, kompeten dan kompak. kompak ¾ RPJM realistik dan menukik atau fokus.
Bagian IV Prospek 2010
The world economic outlook outlook, 2009-2010 2009 2010 Description
2009
2010
World GDP growth, %
-1.1
3.1
-United States
-2 7 -2.7
15 1.5
-Euro Area
-4.2
0.3
-Japan Japan
-5.4 54
17 1.7
-Developing economies
1.7
5.1
-China Chi
85 8.5
90 9.0
-Asean-5
0.7
4.0
-11.9
2.5
World trade growth, % Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2009..
Indonesia upgraded!!! ¾ Despite the weakness of the global economy, the Economist Intelligence Unit has raised its forecast for Indonesian economic growth. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.4% this year, compared with a contraction of 1.4% in our previous forecast. We expect growth to accelerate to 3.2% in 2010, up from 0 5% previously. 0.5% i l (Source: economist.com, May 22nd 2009 From the Economist Intelligence Unit ViewsWire.)
¾ IMF (June 5, 5 2009): Looking forward, forward we have raised our projection of economic growth for 2009 to 3-4 ppercent ((from 2.5 2.5%)) with inflation expected p to decline to about 5 percent by the end of the year. . Source: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09201.htm
Projections of GDP by several agencies No Agency
Date
2009
2010
March 2009
3.5
5.0
July 2009
4.5
5.5
1
Bank Indonesia
2
IIF
3
Gov’tt oof Indonesia Go do es a
September Septe be 2009 009
4.55
55.55
4
ADB
September 2009
4.3
5.4
5
World Bank
September 2009
4.3
5.4
6
Economist
October 2009
4.2
4.5
7
IMF
October 2009
4.0
4.8
EIU’s prediction on Indonesian economy GDP growth, percent
Source: The Economist, various issues.
Projections of GDP by expenditures
Description
2009*
2008
2010*
BI
Bappenas
5,3
3,7
3.5
Gov’t consumption
10,4
9,9
7.7
Investment Exports (goods & services) Imports (goods & services
11,7
6,0
5.0
4.5
7.1‐7.6
9,5
‐4.6 4.6
‐6.0 6.0
‐16.2 16.2
6.3‐6.4 6.3 6.4
10,0
‐4.8
‐9.0
‐21.8
8.0
61 6,1
40 4,0
40 4.0
47 4,7
Private consumption
G Gross domestic product d i d * Projection
FB 5.1
FB 4.8‐5.0
13.2 7.6‐10.5
5459 5.4‐5.9
Projections of GDP by sector Economic sector 1. Agriculture 2. Mining 3 Manufacturing 3. M f t i 4. Utilities 5 Construction 5. 6. Trade and hospitality 7. Transport and communications 8. Finance 9. Services GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT * Projection
2008 4.8 0.5 3.7 10.9 73 7.3 7.2 16.7 8.2 6.4 6.1
2009* 3.9 1.5 2.5 11.1 64 6.4 2.3 15.5 6.2 6.5 4.7
2010* 3.4-3.6 0.4-1.6 3.1-3.9 10.7-11.2 6972 6.9-7.2 4.6-5.7 15.2-16.6 15.2 16.6 6.5-6.9 6.5 5.4-5.9
Projection of selected economic indicators
GDP growth, % Inflation, % Current account, % of GDP BI rate, year end, % Rp/US$, period average
2008
2009
2010
6.1
4.7
5.4-5.9
11.2
3.8
4.5-5.5
0.1
1.0
0.6-0.8 0.6 0.8
9.25
6.25
7.00
9,767
10,050 9,250-9,500
Fiscal balance, % of GDP
-0.1
-2.0
-1.5
Open unemployment, %
8.4
8.1
8.0
Rupiah cenderung menguat ¾ Sepanjang likuiditas yang melimpah di AS belum disedot The Fed, nilai US$ akan cenderung melemah. ¾ Dengan pasar domestik yang cukup besar, Indonesia semakin menarik bagi FDI. Beberapa sudah masuk. Akan cukup banyak yang menyusul, asalkan .. ¾ Moody’s Moody s sudah meningkatkan rating Indonesia. Indonesia Jika tak ada halangan mendasar, S & P pun diperkirakan bakal melakukan upgrade pg dari BB+ menjadi j BBB-. Dengan g begitu, institutional investors akan semakin tertarik masuk ke pasar modal kita. ¾ Namun volatilitas Rupiah harus tetap diwaspadai.
External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception Too big, too high
Bloomberg commodity price index
Should be here
Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut pengeluaran Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
K Konsumsi i masyarakat k t
55 5,5
48 4,8
46 4,6
47 4,7
48 4,8
49 4,9
Konsumsi pemerintah
13,2
7,6
8,6
8,9
8,8
9,7
4,0
7,1
7,6
8,7
8,3
7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa
-16,2 16 2
64 6,4
77 7,7
12 2 12,2
14 8 14,8
15 3 15,3
Impor barang & jasa
-21,8
8,0
8,2
13,8
15,1
15,5
4,8
5,4
5,8
6,3
6,9
7,1
Investasi*
Produk Domestik Bruto
Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
K Konsumsi i masyarakat k t
51 5,1
50 5,0
47 4,7
48 4,8
46 4,6
50 5,0
Konsumsi pemerintah
13,2
10,5
8,6
8,9
9,2
9,7
5,0
7,6
9,0
11,6
11,1
7,9
Ekspor barang & jasa
-16,2
6,4
9,8
12,2
14,2
15,7
Impor barang & jasa
-21,8
8,0
10,2
13,5
14,8
15,5
4,8
5,9
6,5
7,2
7,4
7,4
Investasi*
Produk Domestik Bruto
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Dasar dengan pertumbuhan PDB rata-rata 2010-14 = 6,3% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Pertanian
3,3
3,4
3,4
3,3
3,4
3,5
2 Pertambangan 2.
0,4
0,4
03 0,3
04 0,4
11 1,1
09 0,9
3. Industri manufaktur
2,6
3,1
4,5
5,1
5,3
6,0
10,6
10,7
10,6
10,7
10,7
10,7
5. Konstruksi
7,2
7,3
7,0
7,1
7,1
7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas
2,4
4,6
5,3
6,7
7,0
7,1
16,1
15,2
14,3
14,5
16,7
16,3
8. Keuangan
8,0
7,9
7,4
7,5
7,4
7,5
9 Jasa-jasa 9.
66 6,6
65 6,5
66 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,6
63 6,3
Produk Domestik Bruto
4,8
5,4
5,8
6,3
6,8
7,1
4. Utilitas
7. Transport & komunikasi
Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB menurut sektor Versi Optimistik dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan PDB 2010-14 = 6,9% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1. Pertanian
3,9
3,6
3,8
4,0
4,1
4,2
e a ba ga 2. Pertambangan
1,5 ,
1,6 ,
2,3 ,3
2,7 ,
2,2 ,
2,0 ,0
3. Industri manufaktur
2,6
3,9
4,8
5,5
6,3
6,5
11,2
11,2
11,5
11,7
11,7
11,4
5. Konstruksi
6,4
6,9
7,5
7,5
7,3
7,1
6. Perdagangan & hospitalitas
2,3
5,7
6,6
7,3
7,6
7,4
16,5
16,6
15,6
17,7
16,7
16,3
8. Keuangan
6,2
6,9
7,5
7,6
7,5
6,9
9 Jasa 9. Jasa-jasa jasa
66 6,6
65 6,5
66 6,6
66 6,6
66 6,6
63 6,3
Produk Domestik Bruto
4,8
5,9
6,5
7,2
7,4
7,4
4. Utilitas
7. Transport & komunikasi
Kebutuhan investasi Skenario
Baseline
Indikator
2008
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi,, %YoY
6.1
4.8
5.4
5.8
6.3
6.9
7.1
PDB Nominal, Rp Tril
4954
5795
6791
8015
9479
11299
13548
Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril
1370
1698
1967
2405
2885
3240
3776
Investasi/PDB, %
27.6
29.3
29.0
30.0
30.4
28.7
27.9
ICOR
3.7
5.0
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.8
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, %YoY
6.1
4.8
5.9
6.5
7.2
7.4
7.4
4954
5795
6823
8104
9661
11577
13916
1370
1698
1976
2432
2941
3320
3879
27.6
29.3
29.0
30.0
30.4
28.7
27.9
3.7
5.0
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.6
PDB Nominal Nominal, Rp Tril Adjustment Kebutuhan Investasi, Rp Tril Investasi/PDB, % ICOR
Sumber dana investasi Skenario
Sumber
Unit
2008
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Nilai, Rp T
1179
1500
1700
2091
2517
2815
3286
Pangsa % Pangsa,
86 1 86.1
88 3 88.3
86 4 86.4
87 0 87.0
87 2 87.2
86 9 86.9
87 0 87.0
Nilai, Rp T
191
198
267
314
368
425
490
Pangsa, %
13.9
11.7
13.6
13.0
12.8
13.1
13.0
Nilai, Rp T
1370
1698
1967
2405
2885
3240
3776
Pangsa, %
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1005
841
996
1224
1464
1820
2249
Nilai, Rp T
1179
1500
1708
2114
2565
2885
3376
P Pangsa, %
86 1 86.1
88 3 88.3
86 4 86.4
87 0 87.0
87 2 87.2
86 9 86.9
87 0 87.0
Nilai, Rp T
191
198
268
317
375
436
503
Pangsa, %
13.9
11.7
13.6
13.0
12.8
13.1
13.0
Nilai,, Rp pT
1370
1698
1976
2432
2941
3320
3879
Pangsa, %
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1005
841
1028
1280
1557
1916
2339
Swasta
Pemerintah Baseline Total Peningkatan PDB Rp T Swasta
Pemerintah Adjustment Total Peningkatan PDB Rp T
Catatan: - Investasi Pemerintah adalah Belanja Barang Modal Pemerintah Pusat + Pemerintah Dati I & II - Peningkatan PDB menggambarkan jumlah utang maksimum yang bisa dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah dengan menjaga rasio DEBT/GDP tetap konstan.
Keunikan Indonesia
Negara kepulauan Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan
Kerangka Strategi Pembangunan VISI: Mewujudkan negara maritim yang mampu mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik menuju negara maju yang berkeadilan M 1. I S 2. I 3.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dan berkelanjutan; Perluasan penyerapan tenaga kerja; Pengentasan kemiskinan dan pemerataan pembangunan.
Melalui p pencapaian p 5( (lima) ) sasaran strategis: g Struktur ekonomi yang kokoh, mandiri dan berdaya saing
Sumber pembiayaan pembangunan mencukupi dan efisien
Sumber daya manusia produktif
Pemanfaatan SDA secara optimal dan lestari
Birokrasi yang kompeten, efektif dan bersih
Fokus pada pada 7 area kebijakan kebijakan:: Infrastruktur • Penyediaan infrastruktur (fisik ( dan non fisik) yang handal; • Skema pendanaan • Kebijakan harga infrastruktur.
Kualitas sumber daya manusia • Implementasi l i sistem pendanaan kesehatan berkelanjutan dan terencana; • Pembangunan pendidikan pendidikan mengacu pada output.
Lingkungan sosial dan politik
Teknologi • Peningkatan dan efisiensi alokasi fi i i l k i anggaran negara untuk penelitian; • Insentif kegiatan R&D oleh swasta;
Pasar tenaga kerja: • P Penyempurnaan UU ketenagakerjaan; • Peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja sektor formal; • Implementasi Implementasi sistem jaminan sosial bagi pekerja;
Pasar modal dan perbankan: • M Mobilisasi dana bili i d masyarakat: tabungan haji, surplus dana masyarakat. • Monetisasi asset negara; • Peningkatan Peningkatan basis pajak.
Kerangka kelembagaan
SUPRASTRUKTUR
Pasar barang: • Sistem distribusi yang efisien yang efisien. • Perlindungan wajar bagi produsen domestik dari persaingan tidak adil dengan produsen luar produsen luar negeri;
Kebijakan afirmatif: • Active industrial policy: men‐ dorong kegiatan usaha potensial dan strategis; • Penguatan struktur pelaku usaha; h • Persebaran spasial kegiatan ekonomi
Struktur pasar
68
Logistic cost in comparison
Port efficiency Container handling cost per 40 feet (US$) L. Chabang, Thailand Chittagong, Bangladesh
Ship movement per hour (unit) L. Chabang, Thailand
43
Chittagong, g g Bangladesh g
60
Kwangyang, Korea
69
Kwangyang, Korea
Port Klang, Malaysia
70
Port Klang, Malaysia
Manila, Philippines
85
Minila, Philippines
Keohsiung,Taiwan
88
Keohsiung, Taiwan
T. Priok, Indonesia
130
T. Priok, Indonesia
75 10 80 50 20 75 35
Source: USAID-SENADA, 2008.
Tanjung Priok is the biggest seaport in Indonesia, but the productivity is the lowest among neighbouring countris
Waspada ¾ Recovery ekonomi dunia yang pesat tahun 2010 mendorong kenaikan real demand untuk commodities. Harga minyak bisa kembali menembus US$100 per barrel. ¾ Implementasi FTA dengan China bisa mengganggu pemulihan industri manufaktur. ¾ Skandal Sk d l demi d i skandal k d l akan k tterkuak, k k menyentuh lapisan elit.
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